Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 171424
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1024 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
The next few days will be a bit unsettled with some isolated to
scattered rain showers in the valleys and snow showers in the
mountains. Any snow accumulations will be light and confined to the
higher peaks. The shower chances will end later in the week but
temperatures will remain around or below climatological normals.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1020 AM EDT Sunday... A batch of showers is shifting east
into the Champlain Valley behind a cold front now exiting the
Northeast Kingdom. These showers should be sustained by
increasing lapse rates and the development of 200 J/kg of CAPE
over eastern Vermont. So as activity moves east of the Greens,
some of those stronger showers may try to produce some pea-sized
hail. Tweaked PoPs based on current trends, and by this
afternoon, we should see some additional activity across
northern New York spark. Previous forecast follows....
A line of heavier precipitation is currently moving across the
forecast area from west to east. It should leave Vermont by mid-
morning and only a few showers should remain behind it. Total
liquid equivalent precipitation will be under a quarter inch
except in the mountains where totals up to 0.4 inches are
possible. Snow levels will be around 2500 ft so any
accumulations will be limited to the highest terrain. Behind the
line of precipitation, lapse rates will steepen and deep mixing
will occur. This should cause a few convective showers during
the day. West to southwest flow will limit orographic showers to
the far northern Greens where there will be some snow showers
in the highest elevations. Highs in the broad valleys will be in
the upper 40s to around 50 but with the steep lapse rates,
highs in the mountains will only be a few degrees above
freezing. Any convection should dissipate overnight but with
temperatures dropping close to freezing, any lingering showers
could fall as snow anywhere. A very similar setup will occur on
Monday where more scattered convective showers and orographic
precipitation will occur, with the orographic precipitation
again mostly confined to the far northern Greens. However, winds
will begin to shift toward more northwesterly later during the
day and this should allow orographic snow showers to fall father
south on the Greens as well. Flow should be unblocked so the
orographic precipitation should fall closer to the ridgetops or
even on the lee sides or the mountains. A shortwave will pivot
through later in the day on Monday and enhance the snow showers
as well.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 402 AM EDT Sunday...Precipitation chances will be decreasing
with upslope northwesterly flow continuing to favor isolated to
scattered snow showers over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains into
Tuesday. Temperatures will trend cooler behind the boundary with
cold air advection dropping lows into the teens for the Adirondacks
and 20s elsewhere Tuesday morning. Likewise, high temperatures will
be trending down as well, generally in the 30s a few degrees below
seasonal averages. With breezes conditions may feel comparatively
brisk to recent temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 402 AM EDT Sunday...Longwave troughing settles over eastern
Canada with the North Country likely remaining towards the base of
the trough. A frontal system seems probable with most models
projecting passage Wednesday/Wednesday night. The continental nature
of the airmasses will largely preclude heavy precipitation, but a
few inches of snow above 2500ft seems reasonable while flow pattern
favors a quick moving system. With projected zonal flow south of the
region, and position of the longwave trough, conditions should
remain unsettled through the end of the week into the weekend. Model
consensus favors colder than average temperatures for Thursday with
highs struggling to reach 32 degrees. The rest of the extended
forecast will feature near/slightly below average temperatures
and periods of lower elevation rain showers and high elevation
snow showers.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday... Steady rain will move out of the region
by mid-morning and and there will only be a few scattered
showers for the rest of the day. These showers could be locally
heavy enough to briefly reduce visibilities. Snow could mix
into these showers and reduce visibilities farther at SLK.
Ceilings have mostly bottomed out and will begin to quickly
rise by mid-morning as deep mixing will occur. Ceilings should
therefore rise to VFR at all terminals by afternoon. Any LLWS
threat will subsequently end as stronger winds aloft mix down to
the surface. Winds will shift from southwest to more westerly
during the day before switching back to southwest overnight.
Winds will also increase during the day and gusts up to 25 kts
are possible at any terminal. Winds will then gradually decrease
tonight.
Outlook...
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Scattered SHSN,
Scattered SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Myskowski