Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 211141 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 641 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FILTER IN DRIER AND COLDER AIR TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WHILE MOST AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINING DRY. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC, ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY. ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY. SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S. SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN SNOWSHOWERS AT KSLK/KMPV WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 14-16Z, AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING. WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TO CAUSE THIS BATCH OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP. DRIER AND SINKING AIR FOLLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST, AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE DURING DAYTIME HOURS THEN WILL SUBSIDE HEADING TOWARD 00Z. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WINDS WILL TURN TO SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. 00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. 12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON/KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...HANSON

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