Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 211910 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 310 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 112 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT AS WELL AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY FROST THREAT. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. NOT REALLY ALL THAT EXCITED ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN AN ABNORMALLY COOL AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH FORECAST LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY WILL LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT EXACTLY WHICH IS UNCLEAR DUE TO FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE. THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH TEMPS STILL FALLING BELOW FREEZING SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY, ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S THE LOW 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRANSITION PERIOD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT AND MOISTURE/LIFT. GFS CONTS TO BE 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH PUSHING RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND WEAK WAA LIFT ACRS OUR CWA ON MONDAY...WHILE 12Z ECMWF DELAYS THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY. EITHER WAY QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY < 0.25". WL CONT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER IDEA AND KEEP MOST OF OUR CWA DRY ON MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN DACKS...WILL MENTION CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 600 AND 1000 J/KG ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT WILL INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH PW VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.0" BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO L/M 60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 925MB WARM BTWN 15C AND 17C BY WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE COOLER SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF S/W ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLEND VALUES AND MENTION 30 TO 40% INSTEAD OF 50 TO 60% POPS FOR WEDS AND THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE INCREASE CHCS FOR PRECIP BY MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOPING.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA ATTM...WITH A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR WESTERN TAF SITES AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/CENTRAL VT TAF SITES BTWN 14Z-16Z FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT CHC FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

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