Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 020821 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 421 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 421 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY... WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THIS FRONT WILL REACH VERMONT BY EARLY EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. AS THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE TOP OF THE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND LONGER LIVED...THUS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL WITH ENHANCED WORDING ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 421 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY EXITING MOST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY DURING THIS PERIOD AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND NOT THE NORTHWEST...COLDER AIR WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. SO EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 410 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA PREDOMINANTLY UNDER WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EASTERN US RIDGE NOSING INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY LOWERING HEIGHTS AND BROAD TROUGH ESTABLISHED FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD. GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECT FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN. RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SURFACE FRONT. BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS HIT THE UPPER TEENS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT VERY WARM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS...ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY UP A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE. 500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN US TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH BEST UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW PASSING TO NORTH...SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWS AND BECOMES ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW. MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS MOVING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHILE ECMWF HANGS IT UP IN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. HEDGED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEPT CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY. RIGHT NOW SATURDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER... COINCIDING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES DO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOWER HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR. AREA OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. COVERAGE WILL BE HIT OR MISS SO OPTED TO USE VCSH AND KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT TAF SITES. SHOWERS TO MOVE WEST TO EAST...INTO KMSS 12Z...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 14-15Z...AND OUT OF VERMONT BY 16-17Z. VFR P6SM AND SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT 20-24Z TIME FRAME COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG AFTER 06Z. 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. 00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...HANSON AVIATION...HANSON

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