Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 221901 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 301 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the region through this afternoon with dry and seasonably pleasant weather expected. Showers and thunderstorms return to the region by overnight Thursday into Friday morning with locally heavy rainfall possible. A brief return to dry weather is expected on Saturday before more showers return for the early portions of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 1008 AM EDT Thursday...Only minor changes to previous forecast for today. Can`t ask for a much nicer day than today, minimal cloud cover, and very low precipitation chances. Feel that best chance for showers remains Adirondacks and westward and generally very late in the period this evening. Otherwise lots of sun, low dewpoints and warm temperatures. Previous discussion...High pressure will continue to build into the North Country today. Mostly clear skies should continue through the morning and we`ve been fortunate that the boundary layer winds have stayed elevated enough to not see much in the way of fog development although its not that far away as the GOES-R Fog product shows fog creeping into the river valleys of central NY and across portions of Quebec. The lone exception to that is Saranac Lake were literally as I typed the previous sentence the visibility started to fall due to ground fog developing. The daylight hours should be quite pleasant across the North Country under mostly clear skies through the morning. Mid to high level clouds will begin to build in from the west as a warm front lifts to the north. The warm air will advecting in but shouldn`t have a significant impact on max temps as 925mb temps will only warm to 17-19C supporting highs in the upper 70s. In the overnight hours, the PWATs surge to 1.7-2.0 inches and moisture convergence increase at the surface leading to rather healthy rain showers developing. The best chance for the showers is generally over norther New York where some areas will see up to an inch of rain overnight. With the warm air advection continuing expect lows to trend warmer in the upper 50s to low 60s under south/southwesterly flow and increasing clouds. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...Mid/upper level trof will deepen across the ne conus for the weekend with several embedded vorts. Atmosphere will have much better dynamics to work with...but moisture and stability profiles will be weaker than friday...so expecting less areal coverage of showers and embedded rumbles of thunder. Neither Sat or Sun will be a wash out...but will continue to mention low chc pops between 18z-03z each aftn. Instability ranges from 400 to 800 j/kg...with axis of highest values near the international border each aftern/evening with strong mid/upper level westerly flow. Soundings show slightly better instability with steeper lapse rates on Sunday aftn with the potential for some localized gusty winds...but threat is limited based on available energy. Progged 850mb temps btwn 10-12c Saturday support mainly 70s with values falling btwn 7-9c on Sunday supporting highs mid 60s to l/m 70s warmer valleys. Lows mainly in the upper 40s to mid/upper 50s over the weekend. Depending upon areal coverage of precip...some patchy fog is possible in the deeper protected valleys. Mid level moisture associated with remnants of Cindy may produce a light shower early Sat morning across extreme southern Rutland/Windsor Counties and have continued to mention low chc to cover this potential. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...Large scale synoptic pattern shows mid/upper level trof persisting across the Great Lakes into the ne conus. This general setup will support at or below normal temps with chances for showers...as unsettled weather is expected. Thermal profiles show limited instability with some afternoon heating producing daily cape values between 300-600 j/kg. A rumble or two of thunder is possible...especially when the strong dynamics arrive during peak heating hours...but overall severe threat is limited. Have tried to focus higher pops during the aftn/evening hours...except on Tues when better dynamics and deeper moisture is present associated with mid/upper level trof. Progged 850mb temps btwn 6-8c Monday/Tuesday support highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. These low level thermal profiles slow warm back into the 9-11c by late next week...supporting highs back into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Overnight lows range mainly in the mid 40s mountain valleys to mid/upper 50s in the warmer urban areas of the Champlain Valley. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 12Z Friday...VFR conditions expected through this evening with mostly clear skies. Clouds will begin building into the north country this evening as a warm front will bring rain showers to the northern TAF sites shortly after 00z Friday. Have introduced prevailing showers toward daybreak and during the day tomorrow with MVFR visibilities at times. There will be thunder, but the risk is conditional, and hard to pin down any one time or location to include prevailing thunder in any of the TAF sites at this time. Later cycles can re-evaluate best thunder chances at specific TAF sites. Will also be some LLWS tonight at SLK/MSS for a few hours as surface winds go light with increasing low-level jet aloft. Outlook... Friday Night: VFR. Numerous SHRA...Isolated TSRA. Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Isolated SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Deal/Manning SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Manning

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