Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 191146 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 746 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough of low pressure will move east from the Upper Midwest and reach northern New England by tonight. Clouds and a few showers are expected across the area today into this evening with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Drier air moves in on Sunday with more sunshine expected and highs once again in the mid 70s to the lower 80s. We are still looking at mostly sunny skies for Monday...the day of the solar eclipse...with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Another trough of low pressure approaches the region on Tuesday and will increase the chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 709 AM EDT Saturday...Cloud shield has been solid across northern New York early this morning with no fog development. Clearing did take place across parts of Vermont over the past couple of hours and fog developed. Fog should last through mid- morning and then lift as more clouds spread east into Vermont from northern New York and better mixing takes place. Have adjusted forecast through mid-morning to account for this scenario otherwise remainder of forecast in good shape with just some isolated showers expected as upper trough gradually moves into the area later today and tonight. Previous Discussion... Southwest flow aloft exists over the area this morning in advance of an upper level trough over the Upper Midwest. Still quite a bit of low level moisture around from precipitation yesterday with dew points in the 60s. Enough cloud cover has remained over the area to preclude widespread fog development. Any fog has been patchy and should remain through about mid- morning. Not much in the way of any forcing until upper trough moves in later today and thus only expecting isolated showers. Most areas should remain dry with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. For tonight...still looking at isolated showers over the area through about midnight...which is when the upper trough axis exits to the east. Drier air moves in tonight and lows will generally be in the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 436 AM EDT Saturday...High pressure builds into the region on Sunday and moves south and east of the area on Monday. Dry weather is expected during this period with increasing amounts of sunshine each day. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s with warmer temperatures on Monday as highs will generally be in the lower to mid 80s. Solar eclipse viewing should be good on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 430 AM EDT Saturday...All of the interesting weather in the extended portion of the forecast will occur Tuesday and Wednesday. Low pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes region early Tuesday, northeastward towards Eastern Quebec by Wednesday morning. Cold front associated with this low pressure system will cross our forecast area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Best chance for showers will be overnight Tuesday. May see some thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon ahead of approaching cold front. Tuesday will be a bit cooler than Monday but still much above seasonal normals, lower to upper 80s. Highest temperatures will be in t Wide range of conditions expected across the area with plenty of low level moisture around. Overall looking at VFR to MVFR conditions...but there will be periods of IFR to VLIFR ceilings of visibilities through 12z due to low clouds and fog. After 12z enough mixing will take place to remove the low clouds and fog with southwest winds in the 5 to 15 knot range. There may be a few showers that move across the area after 22z...but should not have an impact on aviation. he Champlain and Connecticut river valleys in Southern Vermont. A weaker surface trough crosses our area Thursday, but only chance for some light showers with this feature. Then a large ridge of surface high pressure will build for the end of the week.
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&& .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 12Z Sunday...We continue to deal with a wide range of categories across the area this morning. We have MVFR/VFR ceilings over northern New York and those are expected to continue for the entire period. And over northern New York between 18z and 04z isolated showers are expected...but no obstructions to visibility are expected. IFR conditions may develop at KSLK after 08z due to low clouds and fog. For Vermont MVFR/VFR ceilings will exist at KBTV through the period with isolated showers between 20z and 04z but no obstruction to visibility during this time period. For KMPV and KRUT we will have IFR to VLIFR conditions due to low clouds and fog through about 15z before visibilities improve to VFR and ceilings lift into the MVFR/VFR categories. At these two locations isolated showers may exist between 20z and 04z as well with more fog at KMPV after 08z with a return to IFR conditions. South to southwest winds will be increasing this morning before shifting to the west tonight. Speeds will generally be 10 knots or less. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Evenson

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