Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 131747 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1247 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Deep low pressure will pull away into eastern Canada today into tonight with widespread light snows and snow showers tapering off. Cold and blustery weather is expected into Thursday before winds abate. Thereafter a slow moderation in temperatures is expected into next weekend with a few snow showers expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1246 PM EST Wednesday...Winter headlines have been cancelled as prevailing snow has diminished across most of the area outside the higher elevations of northern Vermont where a few more inches of snow is likely through the remainder of the daylight hours. Final snowfall totals ranged from 4-9" across northern New York, to a general 6-12" across Vermont with a few isolated higher amounts in the southeast upslope prone locations across the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains. Highest amount recorded in the BTV CWA was in the Killington area at 19", with 7.2" locally here at KBTV, and the highest amount in Chittenden County being 8.4" in Underhill (not Milton). By tonight into Thursday sensible weather conditions gradually trend quieter, though we`ll remain under deep cyclonic flow and a modest pressure gradient so winds will only abate slowly. A weak secondary clipper low will pass to our south tonight into Thursday morning and have little impact on area weather. Skies trend partly cloudy tonight, then partly to mostly sunny on Thursday. Lows tonight to mainly range in the +/- single digits with wind chills falling into the negative single digits and teens so bundle up. High on Thursday generally in the 9 to 18 above range with customary variation. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 354 AM EST Wednesday...Clear to partly cloudy skies then continue into Thursday night as weak high pressure bridges across the area. Winds to trend light south to southwesterly preventing a full free-fall in temperatures. That said it will still be quite chilly with lows by sunrise Friday once again in the +/- single digits and wind chills in the negative single digits/teens. Looking ahead to Friday the background flow continues to back to south/southwesterly in advance of another, though much weaker northern stream clipper low across the northern Great Lakes. Mainly dry weather continues, though lake snow showers off Lake Ontario should lift northward over time, possibly affecting southwestern St. Lawrence county with light accumulations. High temperatures to trend more reasonable - mainly upper teens to lower 20s, which will feel considerably nicer given the lighter wind regime. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 140 AM EST Wednesday....A weak clipper type system will move across the North country Friday night into Saturday. Scattered light snow showers are anticipated with this system. Saturday night a ridge of high pressure will briefly build over the region, ahead of another weak low crossing north of our area and bringing more light snow showers on Sunday night. Some differences arise between the GFS and ECMWF headed into early next week, but pattern looks to remain active with several more chances for light snow showers. No major storms going all the way out through the work week next week. Lower than normal temperatures for this weekend will return to above seasonal normals headed into early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday...Overall looking at improving conditions this afternoon from MVFR to VFR as skies slowly clear out. Winds will remain an issue gusting from the west at 20-30kts producing areas of blowing and drifting snow. So far, restrictions to vsby have been localized to KMPV and KSLK in the MVFR to IFR category, and expect this to continue through 00Z. After 00Z winds begin to abate to 5-10 knots and skies briefly clear. After 06Z a disturbance passing south will bring an increase of mid/high clouds from south to north through 12-14Z, before skies trend back to SKC for the remainder of Thursday. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Isolated SHSN. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Isolated SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG/Lahiff SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Lahiff is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.