Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 220021 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 821 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRY TREND FOR THE COMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 726 PM EDT SUNDAY...DISTINCT BAND OF SHOWERS HAS TAKEN SHAPE FROM NORTHEAST NEW YORK SOUTHWEST TO THE BINGHAMTON NEW YORK AREA. THIS BAND IS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE...BUT IS STILL MOVE MORE NORTH THAN EAST. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...SO MOST OF IT SHOULD REMAIN AS SHOWERS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTS TO ABOUT 30 MPH. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO CREATE A SHARPER GRADIENT IN PRECIPITATION WITH LITTLE CHANCE OUTSIDE OF THIS BAND AND GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT WITHIN THE BAND. EVENTUALLY EVERYTHING EVOLVES INTO A MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN PRECIPITATION PATTERN AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS OUR AREA BY MORNING. REST OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850 MB UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE 30S. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS EFFECTS FELT AND TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND CLOUDS DIMINISH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...LONG RANGE DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD OUR REGION BY THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BY THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND MOVING INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST VERMONT AS OF 00Z MONDAY. EXPECTING AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MONDAY AND REMAINING MOSTLY MVFR THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS OR GREATER TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY FROM 10Z-14Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND THE REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .MARINE... AS OF 726 PM SUNDAY...WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF SUBSTANTIALLY AND WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THUS HAVE CANCELED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HANSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...HANSON LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...WGH/MUCCILLI MARINE...EVENSON

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