Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 231936 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 336 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4" ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS. MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL ADVECTIVE REGIME. BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD. WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE. AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 336 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REAMINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE COD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. 00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. 00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE SLV. && .MARINE... AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE. CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...NASH SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH HYDROLOGY...JMG MARINE...JMG

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.