Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 311414 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1014 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak disturbance passing north of the region this afternoon will bring scattered clouds and perhaps a few light showers or sprinkles to northern mountain communities. Otherwise dry and seasonably warm conditions are expected through Thursday as high pressure builds across the northeast. A trend toward cloudier, more unsettled weather returns by Friday, and again from Sunday onward into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 1014 AM EDT Tuesday...Forecast on track for the rest of this morning into the afternoon under weak area of high pressure in a seasonably mild and low humidity conditions. Plentiful sunshine should persist across much of the area for the next several hours. Steep low-level lapse rates driven by the strong insolation should help mix gusts up to 25 mph at times this afternoon, as well as tap into deep area of dry air aloft and lower dewpoints into the afternoon. Focus then turns to cold front and parent vorticity maxima now nearing the Ottawa Valley in QC/ON. While a mainly dry frontal passage is expected late in the day/early evening, it should act to increase clouds and veer winds from west to northwest later in the day for our northern areas. So I`ve increased sky cover slightly in these northern areas (along/north of a line from St. Johnsbury to Montpelier to Saranac Lake) for the afternoon period. Otherwise, I`ve just populated with current observations. Highs today still look good, into the 70s to the lower/mid 80s but with noticeably lower humidity levels compared to the Memorial Day weekend. Prior discussion from 300 AM EDT Tuesday... Generally quiet weather is expected over the next 24 hours and a largely persistence forecast was offered for this morning`s package. For today we`ll start the day mainly sunny, then trend partly sunny by afternoon as a shortwave upper trough passes to our immediate north and into northern Maine and the maritimes by this evening. The feature has little moisture to work with, and given a relatively dry boundary layer and thermal capping near 750 mb I`ve maintained our prior idea of just an outside shot of a passing light shower or sprinkle across the northern mountains later today. Best shot of occurrence across north central/northeastern VT in closer proximity to upper energy. Model-averaged 925 mb temperatures support highs in the 70s to locally in the lower 80s in Champlain/Connecticut River Valley communities where modestly gusty west-northwest boundary layer flow will foster adiabatic downsloping effects. By tonight surface high pressure continues to build into the region as upper heights rise over time. Any evening cloudiness will trend mainly clear overnight as west to northwesterly winds become light after midnight. While confidence is only modest given a full 24 hours of drying, favorable hydrolapse profiles and lighter nocturnal boundary layer wind fields suggest including at least shot of some patchy mist and/or fog across the northern mountains in the 200-700 am time frame. Low temperatures a blend of MOS-based and bias- corrected output which support values ranging through the 40s to around 50 in milder valley locales.
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&& .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 336 AM EDT Tuesday...Ridge of high pressure will crest over the region on Wednesday. This will result in dry conditions, warm temperatures and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. As 925mb temperatures increase to the mid teens, surface temperatures will reach the 70s to low 80s on Wednesday. Areas east of the Greens may be slightly cooler as models trying to indicate some light easterly to southeasterly flow may bring some maritime are into eastern Vermont. Wednesday night will remain dry and mild with increasing clouds ahead of low pressure system and associated cold front approaching from the west. Aforementioned ridge will shift east over the Canadian maritimes, bringing return southerly flow to the North Country. Min temperatures will generally be in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 336 AM EDT Tuesday...Potential for rain showers and thunderstorms increase on Thursday as low pressure system nears. A weak warm front will graze Northern New York, with increasing POPs throughout the day, while the Champlain Valley and areas east are expected to remain dry. Max temperatures will be slightly warmer and dependent on cloud cover, ranging from the 70s to low-mid 80s. Cold front associated with the low is expected to move across the region Thursday night through Friday. Depending on timing, thunderstorms could develop. While bulk of energy exits the North Country to the south and east late Friday/Friday night, models indicate another vort at 500mb moving through late Friday night/early Saturday morning which will keep slight to low chance POPs over the area. High pressure arrives for the bulk of the weekend, providing a break in precip potential, before a long wave mid-level trough digs southward from the Great Lakes Region. Models show some differences with regard to evolution, track and timing of this system. Similarities exist in the surface low becoming a cut-off low and could lead to a wet first half of the week. Temperatures throughout the period will remain above normal by 5-10 degrees for this time of year. && .AVIATION /14Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Through 12z Wednesday...Mainly VFR through the forecast period. Winds generally light to modest west to southwesterly this morning, veering west to northwesterly after 16Z and occasionally gusty to 20 kts this afternoon before abating by 00Z. SCT to occasionally BKN cigs mainly in the 045-070 AGL range arrive after 16Z or so as weak upper disturbance swings by to the north. Other than a brief northern mountain sprinkle, no precipitation is expected with this feature. After 06Z trending mainly SKC though have included a brief period of IFR vbys/cigs at KSLK in the 08-11Z time frame to account for favorable hydrolapse rates and potential br/fg. Outside shot of this also occurring at the KMPV terminal during the same time frame but given lower surface moisture fluxes overall confidence is lower so have refrained from mentioning at this point. Outlook 12Z Wednesday through Saturday... 12Z Wednesday through 00Z Friday...VFR/high pressure. 00Z Friday through 00Z Saturday...VFR with brief MVFR visibilities possible in scattered showers as weak frontal boundary swings through the area. 00Z Saturday onward...mainly VFR/high pressure. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG/Loconto SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...JMG is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.