Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 010841 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 341 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGHOUT THE DAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1205 AM EST SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ANY EARLIER LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOKING AT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME -10 TO -15 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 326 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. WARM FRONT...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SUPPORT FOR THE SNOW. THESE FEATURES ARE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND NOT VERY STRONG...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES FOR THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. AGAIN MAIN TIME FOR THIS SNOW WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW FROM THIS EVENT. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THE SNOW QUICKLY TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR 0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES FOLLOWED BY LOWERING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH LEAST AT PBG/BTV WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE WINDS ON SUNDAY STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV. OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 06Z MONDAY-12Z MONDAY...MAINLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW. 12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST CHANCES OF IFR OR LOWER AT MPV/SLK. 00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON/NEILES/MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS

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