Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 220744 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 344 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 138 AM EDT FRIDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE. HAVE LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION... EXCEPT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LOW THEN CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. NAM AND GFS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AND PASSING THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FORECAST DURING THE AFTN HOURS...TRENDING DRIER BY EVENING. MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST TRENDS TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY BY AFTN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE COOLEST IN SOUTHERN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY AND WARMEST NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY. WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES AND SATURATED NAM/BTV-4 LOW-LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MARINE LAYER/STRATUS IN EASTERN VT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM +9C IN EASTERN VT TO AROUND +11C ELSEWHERE...LOOKING AT HIGHS ONLY AROUND 70 IN EASTERN VT TO MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FCSTS...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU TUES. STILL SOME LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE GFS SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF AND STRONGER WITH MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHILE ECMWF AND GEM ARE FASTER AND SUPPRESS THE HEAT TO OUR SOUTH SOONER. WL TREND TWD A EURO SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH WL PLACE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACRS OUR CWA ON WEDS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING LATE WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON TUES AND BTWN 14-16C ON WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE UHI AREAS OF THE CPV/SLV. IN ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL HELP INCREASE THE HUMIDITY LEVELS BY MID WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE NOTED BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUES ACRS THE SLV WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT MID LVL S/W ENERGY IS WEAK AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS MINIMAL...THEREFORE WL KEEP DRY. BETTER MOISTURE AND S/W ENERGY ARRIVES LATE WEDS ACRS OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS TOO OUR NORTH...SO NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SVR ON WEDS. CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CONTS ON THURS WITH SFC COLD FRNT LOCATED ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND MID LVL S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING ACRS OUR CWA. WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON THURS...AND DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE 70S MTNS TO L/M 80S VALLEYS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...EARLY THIS WEEK WL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACRS OUR TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING FROM IFR AT SLK TO MVFR AT MPV/PBG/BTV...AND VFR AT RUT/MSS. THINKING IFR CIGS WL PREVAIL AT SLK THRU 12Z FRIDAY...BASED ON CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE. ALSO...HAVE PLACED IFR TO DEVELOP AT MSS/MPV BTWN 08-09Z...DUE TO SATURATED LLVLS FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND LATEST TRENDS OF INCREASING THE RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST COUPLE HUNDRED FEET. THINKING IFR VIS AT MSS WITH FOG/BR WITH IFR CIGS AT MPV...AS WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER JUST ABOVE THE SFC...HELPING IN THE PROMOTION OF A LOW STRATUS DECK. THINKING MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT PBG/RUT/BTV WITH SOUTHEAST FLW AND CIGS BTWN 2500 AND 4500 FEET. SOME LOWERING CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE TWD SUNRISE AT PBG...ESPECIALLY WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW COMING OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. CIGS/VIS WL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z AT SLK/MPV AND VFR BY 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES. THINKING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WL REMAIN DRY THRU THE PERIOD...MAYBE A SPOT SHOWER WITH VIS AROUND 5SM AT MPV/RUT...WITH SOME DRIZZLE. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES FROM EASTERN CANADA WL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES FOR SATURDAY THUR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED FOG/BR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/MSS SAT/SUN AND MONDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-12Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NASH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...LOCONTO LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

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