Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 171737 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1237 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 925 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE BTV CWA THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT...TEMPORARILY DISSIPATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR WHILE CONTINUING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON SURFACE OBS PTYPE HAS BEEN MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME A FEW POCKETS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...BUT AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY. LATER THIS AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION WILL FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE PRIMARY LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL ALOFT TO SUPPORT A PTYPE TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AROUND THE EVENING RUSH. DON`T EXPECT IT TO BE A BIG ISSUE THOUGH AS ROADS ARE CURRENTLY JUST WET AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING ALL SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT...WHICH WILL SEE MORE OF A DRY SLOT. AS NIGHT FALLS, AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL, EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUES MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT CHANCE FOR LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AS WINDS SHIFT NW AND UPSLOPE FLOW AFFECTS KMPV AND KSLK. AT THE SAME TIME, THIS BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. 00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. 00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...KGM/NEILES

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