Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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800 FXUS61 KBTV 280549 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 149 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A band of showers with a rumble of thunder will move from west to east across the North Country late tonight into early Friday morning. Rainfall will be generally under a quarter of an inch with any lingering showers moving east of our area by midday Friday. Temperatures will remain mild for Friday into Saturday...before another cold front produces more showers and cooler temperatures Saturday afternoon into Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
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As of 149 AM EDT Friday...Line of showers moving across the western St Lawrence Valley with some gusty winds continues to progress northwestward. Expect brief period of moderate rain showers and possibly an isolated rumble of thunder with this line...reaching the Champlain Valley around 09z and over eastern VT around 12z this morning, but diminish as it moves eastward. Therefore have POPs decreasing quite a bit after reaching the Green Mountains early this morning. QPF will generally be between 1 and 2 tenths of an inch...maybe a few higher values in convective elements over northern NY. Still anticipating low level southeast winds to advect additional low level moisture back into central/eastern vt overnight with low clouds prevailing. These clouds will lift as winds shift to the west/southwest on Friday. Temps mainly in the upper 40s to near 60f overnight. During the daylight hours Friday...mid level dry slot develops along with weak ridge of high pressure under west/southwest flow aloft. Progged 925mb to 850mb temps shows a sharp nw to se gradient across our cwa with temps near 5 to 6c slv to 16c near VSF...which support mid 60s west to near 80f vsf and lower parts of the CPV. A few light lingering shower are possible across eastern vt thru 15z...but most of the area will remain dry with above normal temps prevailing. Good mixing and progged 850mb winds between 35 and 40 knots...support some localized wind gusts to 30 knots...especially in channeled flow over the slv.
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&& .SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 314 PM EDT Thursday...Fast moving flow aloft will exist over the area through the period. Friday night starts off dry...but then surge of moisture moves in during the first part of Saturday and brings showers to the area before exiting to the east late in the day. Saturday night will be dry once again. Despite the precipitation on Saturday...much of the area will see above normal temperatures...especially from the Champlain Valley eastward. Highs on Saturday will be in the lower 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 314 PM EDT Thursday...High pressure will be over the area Sunday morning with this feature moving east during the day. A frontal boundary will move into the region late in the day and increase the chances for some showers late in the day over northern New York. The front will move toward the Canadian border Sunday night into Monday with the best chances for precipitation over the far northern portions of the area. Eventually a cold front moves into the area Monday night into Tuesday and showers will be more likely across the entire area. This will be our best chance for higher precipitation amounts as moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic should move up into the region. Temperatures will be warm enough aloft to promote some high elevation snowmelt and we should see some noticeable rises on area waterways. Unsettled weather continues Tuesday through Thursday as upper trough lingers over the Northeast. Warmest temperatures should be on Monday with temperatures trending toward more seasonal values for the remainder of the week.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Through 06Z Saturday...Band of showers...with isolated TS...on KMSS doorstep with MVFR conditions and gusty winds expected. This line will move eastward across the North Country this morning. VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR conditions as the line moves over terminals. Expect MVFR conditions and SHRA at KMSS/KSLK mainly between 06Z-09Z...KPBG and KBTV mainly between 08z-11z. KMPV and KRUT in lighter wind flow and experiencing MVFR cigs already...which is expected to persist into the late morning. South to southwesterly winds will channel up the St Lawrence and Champlain Valleys, continuing gusts up to 30kts possible through at least sunrise. VFR conditions return to all terminals during the morning as dry slot moves into the area. Winds generally out of the SW will eventually decrease to 5-10kts in the late afternoon into evening hours. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...KGM

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