Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 040758 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 358 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW VALUE OF ONLY 0.49". HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET. IN ADDITION...TO MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL OHIO. USING THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF THE HRRR THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE POPS AND MENTION LIKELY (60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z. INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE EASTWARD TWD THE CPV VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY BY 03Z. HAVE MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO LATER TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO 0.25" IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY OF CLOUDS LEVELS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A FEW HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER 50S CPV. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED. REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF PAST FEW DAYS. SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S. WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED. SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60). && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR FOG/BR EARLY THIS MORNING AT MPV/SLK. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS THROUGH TODAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG/BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP 08Z-11Z AT MPV/SLK...BUT DENSITY AND COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 7-10 KNOTS AT RUT) TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL KMPV/KSLK. TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT. WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA. && .EQUIPMENT... KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW EQUIPMENT...

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