Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 092327 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 627 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The North Country will be in between systems tonight with an upper trough to our west and coastal low pressure to our east. Later this afternoon and tonight, snowfall associated with the coastal low will work into eastern portions of the forecast area, with some light accumulations expected through the night. Late tonight into Sunday the trough to our west will bring some scattered snow showers to the region before a more widespread light snow event is expected Monday night into Wednesday morning as a low pressure system moves down from Canada. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 613 PM EST Saturday...Mosaic composite reflectivity at 23Z showing mesoscale banding with 20-30dBz returns extending from far swrn VT newd across srn Rutland/Windsor/ern Orange counties. Band aligns with axis of mid-level frontogenesis (700-600mb), and associated UVV will drive best snowfall rates across the far sern portion of our CWA thru 04-05Z before best frontogenetic forcing shifts to the north and east. Vsby generally 1-2SM in area of snowfall, and anticipate 2-3" snow accumulations, especially in Windsor county VT thru 04Z or so. Further north and west, appears progress of the band has halted, and dry low-level air mass in the Champlain Valley will likely preclude anything more than a few flurries in the BTV area. Northern extent of light snowfall at 23Z extends from Newport to Morrisville to Middlebury. A light accumulation of a coating to 2" is possible across central VT, with forecast generally on track. Some travel slowdowns can be expected with the light snow accumulations, especially I-91 and I-89 corridor from MPV southeast through the remainder of this evening and into the overnight hrs. Previous Discussion... Forecast is playing out well going into tonight with coastal low pressure developing southwest of the benchmark while to our east an upper trough continues to dig southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Deeper moisture associated with the coastal low will work northward into eastern portions of the forecast area later this afternoon and evening, with light snow continuing through the pre-dawn hours before exiting east as the low races northeast into the Gulf of St Lawrence. Being on the western edge of the deeper moisture we`re not expecting a lot of accumulation, mainly 1-3" east of the Greens with the highest amounts in the immediate Connecticut River Valley of Orange and Windsor counties. Lows will be mild, ranging through the 20s under lots of cloud cover and light winds. For Sunday, coastal low pressure exits east of the region while a digging upper trough over the Ohio Valley tonight lifts northeastward into the New England states. A brisk westerly flow develops by mid-day with winds in the 10-15mph range and gusts up to 20 mph, especially across portions of northern New York. Southwesterly flow combined with some weak elevated instability will once again produce periods of lake effect snow showers in the lee of Lake Ontario through the day, mainly affecting the Adirondacks, but a modest 850mb jet of 25-35kts should be enough to transport some activity into portions of northern Vermont, especially in the northern mountains around Jay Peak. Through Sunday night expect to see a solid 1-3" across southern St. Lawrence and Franklin counties as well as western portions of Clinton and Essex counties in New York. Could see localized amounts of 3-5" in the vicinity of Star Lake and Wanakena. Eastward across the northern Greens a general dusting to 2" is expected, with localized amounts up to 4" near Jay Peak. Near normal temps are forecast for Sunday and Sunday night with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s, and lows in the teens.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM EST Saturday...Expect a fairly active and cold pattern to persist through much of next week as the eastern CONUS remains under the influence of a broad upper trough. Waves of low pressure will rotate around the trough, keeping the threat of snow showers in the forecast just about each day. The steadiest snow will occur on Tuesday as a weak coastal low develops in conjunction with the digging upper shortwave/clipper low cross the Great Lakes. Otherwise, expect mostly scattered snow showers through the week. Temperatures will remain cold through the period as well, with the coldest readings coming Wednesday through Thursday. Highs will only be in the teens these days, while lows will be in the single digits; above zero in the valleys and below zero in the mountains. There will be some improvement late in the week as the mid-week wave moves east, placing the region in southwest flow. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 245 PM EST Saturday... && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18Z Sunday...A mix of flight categories is expected through the next 24 hours as coastal low pressure brings snow to eastern and southeastern portions of the region tonight, and lake effect snows return to western areas tomorrow. In the Champlain Valley between the 2 systems KBTV and KPBG will remain largely VFR through the period. At KMPV and KRUT VFR trends to IFR after 00Z through 06Z before improving to MVFR, then late in the period back to VFR. KMSS and KSLK begin VFR as well, but only trend to mainly MVFR after 09Z. Periods of IFR will be possible at KMSS/KSLK in any heavier lake effects snow bands, but difficult to predict at this time. For winds, mainly light <10kts through 12Z Sunday, then picking up from the southwest at 10-15kts with some gusts around 20kts at KMSS/KSLK. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible. Likely SN. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SN. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHSN, Likely SN. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Banacos/Lahiff SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Lahiff

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