Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 160053 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 753 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will exit the region tonight and allow for a low pressure system to gradually move into the Northeast Tuesday through Wednesday. Clouds will be on the increase along with the chances for light to moderate snow across the area and warmer temperatures. Most of the North Country will see 1 to 3 inches of snow with 3 to 6 inches of snow over southern Vermont. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 746 PM EST Monday...High pressure will move out of the area and we will start to see a gradual increase in mid and high level moisture across the area tonight. However before the cloud arrive we should see decent radiational cooling. Thus I`ve had to drop min temps by a few degrees this evening as a result of temps already being lower than originally thought. Still only expect low temperatures generally from 5 above to 5 below. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM EST Monday...Have issued a winter weather advisory for Rutland...Windsor...and Orange counties of Vermont from Noon on Tuesday through 11 AM on Wednesday. Expecting 3 to 5 inches of snow in this area with localized amounts to 6 inches...especially over the extreme southern portions of Rutland and Windsor counties. Elsewhere during this time period looking at 1 to 3 inches of snow. Approaching upper trough on Tuesday stays more of an open wave as it moves eastward across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. This should be a limiting factor in significant precipitation over the area and feel data is showing a bit too much precipitation for this type of pattern. With the southwest flow aloft there will be a northwest to southeast precipitation gradient and southern areas will have the best chance for the accumulating snow...which is why we went ahead and placed Rutland/Windsor/Orange counties in an advisory with lesser amounts elsewhere. Snow should be light in intensity during the day on Tuesday with best period of accumulating snows coming Tuesday night through Wednesday morning before trough axis moves east of the area and precipitation tapers off to some snow showers Wednesday afternoon and night. Warmer temperatures are expected both Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 20s both days. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 419 PM EST Monday...Continued moderation of temperatures across the North Country as W-SW low-level flow regime develops across the Great Lakes into the northeastern CONUS will be the main story for the long term. While the warm up will not be as dramatic or as quick as we saw the end of last week, we will high temperatures above freezing by the end of the week and into the 40s over the weekend. Some lingering showers in light northwesterly flow Thursday will give way to dry conditions for Friday and into the early part of the weekend. A weak/fast moving mid-level northern stream shortwave trough embedded in zonal flow looks to move Saturday night/Sunday morning, which looks to bring a wintry mix with it. While this system does not seem to be significant, with another looming system early next week past the end of the period, we may see some renewed hydro concerns toward the end of the weekend into early next week with ice jams likely in place until then. Definitely will need to be monitored as we get towards the end of the week. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions and calm to light winds will prevail through most of the TAF period, with a general trend towards low VFR and eventually MVFR ceilings by the end of the period. Expect scattered high clouds to thicken and lower to 100-150 AGL between 00Z and 06Z, then further lower to 035-060 AGL between 06Z and 12Z before dropping to 015-030 AGL after 12Z. The exception will be MSS/SLK, where ceilings are expected to drop to below 030 AGL by 11Z. Snow will spread over MSS/SLK/RUT by 16Z, reducing VFR visibilities to MVFR/IFR. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Friday: MVFR. Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 11 AM EST Wednesday for VTZ010>012-019. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Deal/Evenson SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Verasamy AVIATION...Deal is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.