Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 210646 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 246 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1045 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY... FOR SUNDAY: MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A RATHER SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO BE ONGOING ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS. COLD FRONT ITSELF LIKELY TO MAKE SLOW EASTWARD INROADS...NOT BRINGING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS. THOUGH 850 TEMPS CONTINUE WARMING TO +15C MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY TO PREVAIL. HIGHS TO RANGE LOW-MID 70S FOR VT AND ONLY UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR NORTHERN NY. SUNDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH VT OVERNIGHT. LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT TAPER TO CHANCE/LIKELY. HIGHEST POPS BECOME MORE CLOSELY TIED TO OROGRAPHY OVERNIGHT. STRONG POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY CAA /850 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND +4 TO +7C/ CONTRIBUTES TO LOW FROUDE NUMBERS FOCUSING LEFTOVER SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. STORM TOTAL QPF WITH THE FRONT RANGES FROM .75-.8" ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADRIONDACKS /MUCH OF THAT FALLING SUN AFTN/ TO A MIN OF A TENTH OR SO IN SOUTHEAST VT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS VT AND UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN NY. MONDAY: LOOKS TO BE A COOL DAY AS THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA /850 TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO/ WILL OFFSET ANY DIURNAL HEATING ONCE INITIAL CLOUDY SKIES AND MTN SHOWERS BREAK. HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO CLIMB EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS...UPPER 40S/LOW 50S FOR ADIRONDACKS/NORTHERN NY TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS VT. HIGHS SOME 10-13 DEGREES COLDER THAN CLIMO AND NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING IT FEEL COLDER THAN THAT. MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN. I HAVEN`T PUT IN ANY RADIATIONAL RIVER VALLEY FOG BUT CERTAINLY POSSIBLE PENDING CLEARING. DRY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID 40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN 04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST EAST OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE INCLUDED GUSTS UP TO 32 KTS AT BTV THROUGH 15-16Z THIS MORNING. FRONT BEGINS TO BRING SHOWERS TO MSS/SLK AFTER 15Z...AND CLOSER TO 21-22Z AT PBG/BTV...AND NEAR 00Z RUT/MPV. ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR CEILINGS BOTH WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH LOWER CEILINGS/VSBY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A NWLY WIND SHIFT AND AREAS OF BR. OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD. GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUE- THU. && .MARINE... AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS EVENING AND RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE MAKING FOR ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES AND THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...LOCONTO LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS MARINE...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI

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