Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 250818 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 418 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Clouds and moisture from a low pressure area along the mid Atlantic coast will move north into the region today, with rain showers developing across the North Country this afternoon and tonight. Rain showers will continue tonight and into Wednesday. Expecting partly to mostly cloudy skies Wednesday night. Thursday will see warmer temperatures with highs in the 70s under partly sunny skies.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 418 AM EDT Tuesday...Clouds and moisture will be on the increase today from a low pressure area along the mid Atlantic coast. Bufkit forecast soundings show fairly dry conditions in the lower portion of the atmosphere today, so it will take a while to saturate the lower layers. Skies should start out partly sunny today, with increasing cloudiness the through the day. Expecting rain showers to develop later this afternoon and continue into tonight. Have gone with mainly chance pops for today and with likely or categorical pops for tonight for rain showers.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 418 AM EDT Tuesday...Expecting rain showers to continue into Wednesday morning as the closed upper low and the surface low will be coincident with each other south of Long Island New York Wednesday morning. This low will then move east and be over Cape Cod Wednesday night. Expecting the North country to be partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday night, but remaining dry. Models showing upper ridge to build into the region by late Wednesday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 331 PM EDT Monday...Rain showers associated with coastal low pressure will exit east and strong southerly flow will affect the North Country Thursday. Some lingering clouds may limit warming over eastern Vermont, but generally expect temperatures in the 70s and in the mid 70s to around 80 in the St Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. Cooling trend starts with the next chance for rain late Thursday night into early Friday as surface low pressure moves from the central Great Lakes region northwestward towards James Bay Friday morning. Possible cold front or pre-frontal trough associated with this system could bring convective activity on Friday. Lots of disparity amongst model guidance with this system and further into the weekend. Commonalities exist with blocking Bermuda high developing at the surface, which brings a moisture plume from the Gulf toward the Northeast. This could bring another chance for precip on Saturday as the GFS and ECMWF have energy at 500mb moving from SW towards southern Quebec. This is reflected at the surface as a cold front with northerly flow setting up in the front`s wake. On Sunday, Canadian high pressure centered around James Bay will retreat north and east as strengthening closed surface low moves up the Mississippi Valley reaching the Great Lakes by Monday morning. A warm front ahead of the low looks to bring more showers late Sunday. GFS and ECMWF in better agreement with regards to this system. Still differences on track, strength, etc. Overall expect this system to be capable of producing heavy rainfall as moisture from the Gulf rides up the ahead of the cold front and strong winds possible from tight pressure gradient and strengthening of low. The surface low pressure center looks to track to our north and west towards Hudsons Bay sometime on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected through 00Z Wednesday. Satellite loop and surface observations showing mainly high cirrus clouds across the region at this time (06Z Tuesday). Expecting ceilings to slowly lower through the day. Bufkit forecast soundings showing fairly dry conditions across the region, so it will likely take a while to saturate the lower levels of the atmosphere. Expecting any rain shower activity will likely not reach the surface until late this afternoon or this evening. Expecting mainly MVFR conditions in rain showers after 00Z Wednesday. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...TSRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...WGH/SLW

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