Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 020201 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1001 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...THOUGH LINGERING PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY. UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 40S TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 55 TO 60 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. AFTER A FOGGY START EARLY WEDNESDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1001 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST HOLDING UP WELL THUS FAR WITH THE ONLY CHANGES BEING TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS TO THE GOING FORECAST. STILL SOME LIGHT RADAR ECHOES PER RECENT COMPOSITE IMAGERY, CONSISTENT WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN AN OVERCAST AND SATURATED AIRMASS. RECENT HRRR OUTPUT CONTINUE TO POINT TO LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CONTINUING AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, STEADIER RAINS WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY CLOSER TO WEAK SURFACE WAVE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL STRUGGLE TO CHANGE VERY MUCH FROM PRESENT VALUES UNDER BLANKET OF OVERCAST SKIES AND NO SIGNIFICANT THERMAL OR MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SPEAK OF. LOWS IN THE M/U40S STILL LOOK ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 256 PM EDT MONDAY...IT APPEARS THE LOW-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS ERN NY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WILL SEE CLOSED 500MB LOW...CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE GREAT LKS...ROTATE EWD AND PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...MID-LEVEL DRYING AND LOSS OF SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTN. WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT STRATUS LAYER...SO ANTICIPATE CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. CLOUDS AND NORTH WINDS (5-10 MPH) WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING ONCE AGAIN...YIELDING HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 55-60F. MAY SEE A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE SRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND FOR PORTIONS OF SWRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY. FOR POPS...INDICATED CHANCE 40-50 PERCENT IN THE MORNING...GRADUALLY DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WILL SEE SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF DIMINISHING WIND...CLEARING SKIES...AND THE AMPLE RAINFALL RECENTLY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION...WHICH COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS BETWEEN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...BUT A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NERN VERMONT AND WITHIN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACK REGION COULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE FOG SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH OF A BRAKE ON FALLING TEMPS THAT FROST APPEARS UNLIKELY IN THOSE OUTLYING AREAS ATTM. SHOULD SEE FOG AND LINGERING STRATUS ERODE DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...AND SHOULD TREND MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS...AS MIXING LOOKS A BIT TOO SHALLOW IN MODEL SOUNDINGS (PERHAPS DUE TO WET GROUND). WITH 850MB TEMPS +7 TO +9C...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S LOOK BEST. CONTINUED QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PW VALUES <0.5IN AND 1000-500MB RH VALUES LESS THAN 30 PERCENT IN 12Z GFS. LIGHT WINDS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL NOCTURNAL FOG...BUT SHOULDN/T BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...BUT LOCALLY NEAR 40F AT SARANAC LAKE AND FAR NERN VERMONT. POPS NIL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 316 PM EDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THURSDAY DRY, BUT THEN SLIDES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC/HUDSONS BAY AREA, BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY WILL SEE A DRYING TREND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT DRY PERIOD TO LAST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIPITATION MAY MOVE IN AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW TRIES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE INTERACTION OF THESE 2 SYSTEMS WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF MODEL DISCREPANCIES AT THIS POINT, SO WILL JUST KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO 50S. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR DEPENDING ON LOCALE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PATCHY -RA/DZ CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF OCCNL IFR TO OCCUR AT KSLK/KMPV WITH MODEST CONFIDENCE AT KPBG/KMSS. KBTV/KRUT TO REMAIN LARGELY MVFR/VFR. WINDS GENERALLY EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY AT 3-7 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. AFTER 12Z TUESDAY CONDITIONS REMAIN CLOUDS BUT CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR AT ALL TERMINALS OVER TIME. COULD STILL SEE SOME INTERMITTENT/PATCHY -RA/DZ BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR DRYING AFTER 18Z AS WINDS TREND LIGHT NORTHERLY. OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. EXCEPTION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE 02-13Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. 12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. && .HYDROLOGY... THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. RIVERS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE THIS EVENING AS PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. THE EAST BRANCH OF THE AUSABLE RIVER BRIEFLY REACHED JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AT 7.0 FEET. THE MAD RIVER AT MORETOWN (MOOV1) BRIEFLY REACHED ACTION STAGE (BETWEEN 8-9 FEET)...BUT HAS SINCE FALLEN BELOW 8 FEET AND SHOULD CONTINUE DOWNWARD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TOTAL RUNOFF IN THE CHAMPLAIN BASIN SHOULD RESULT IN LAKE CHAMPLAIN RISES FROM AROUND 96.5 FEET UP TO 96.8 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...JMG/KGM HYDROLOGY...BANACOS

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