Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281817 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 217 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... The threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area this afternoon and evening as an upper level trough of low pressure approaches from the west. Areas most likely to see the showers and storms will be across the northern Adirondacks of New York and the northern and central sections of Vermont. High temperatures will remain above normal today. Some showers will linger over the area Monday morning...but high pressure builds in and brings drier air and seasonable temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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As of 217 PM EDT Sunday...Current forecast in good shape. Composite radar loop showing some scattered rain showers developing over northern New York, mainly Clinton County at this time. Previous discussion from 652 AM EDT Sunday...Mid level moisture continues to move across northern New York and the northern half of Vermont this morning. There have been reports of sprinkles with these clouds and have added to the forecast for the next couple of hours. Otherwise...feel cloud cover will thin out mid-morning and allow temperatures to warm and eventually reach the upper 70s to mid 80s. This combined with dew points rising into the 60 to 65 degree range should help to create sufficient instability to enhance the convective potential. As usual the models are too high on the dew points and thus creating too much instability. Upper trough over the Great Lakes region will lift northeast today and thus dynamic support will be increasing over the area this afternoon. As trough approaches...deep layer shear will be increasing but will not be too strong. Feel enough ingredients exist for thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and evening...but none of them are strong enough to suggest storms become severe. Cannot rule out a strong storm or two however with gusty winds and heavy downpours being the main threats. Best potential for thunderstorms looks to be across the northern Adirondacks and the northern and central sections of Vermont. For tonight...areal coverage of showers and storms will be greatest during the evening hours...then quickly taper off after midnight as instability and forcing diminish. Lows will generally be in the 60s as plenty of low level moisture lingers over the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 309 AM EDT Sunday...Synoptic scale features show mid/upper level trof across the NE CONUS on Monday with surface cold front located over eastern New England at 12z. The combination of additional 5h energy associated with trof and lingering leftover moisture in low to mid level cold air advection pattern supports the mention of chance pops on monday morning. Based on moisture progs and upslope wind profiles...thinking any precip will be terrain focused during the morning. Soundings show deep drying on nw flow developing after 18z monday with skies becoming sunny. Progged 850mb temps cool to 10c with 925mb temps around 16c...supporting mid 70s to lower 80s with northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. a great sleeping night expected on monday night with 1024mb surface high pres overnight...providing us with clear skies...low humidity values...and cool temps with light winds. Lows will range from the 40s mountain valleys to mid 50s champlain valley by tuesday morning...with light terrain winds and some patchy valley fog. Surface high pressure with mostly sunny skies and developing south winds is expected for Tuesday. Low level thermal profiles warm a 1 or 2...supporting highs mid 70s to mid 80s depending upon location. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 309 AM EDT Sunday...Overall pattern will feature a transition from ridge across the mid atlantic to deepening mid/upper level trof over the NE CONUS. This will result in below normal temps by late week with mainly terrain focused precip chances on Weds into Thurs associated with cold front and trof development. QPF values will be light...with only chance pops anticipated. On Weds mid level moisture increases with pws approaching 1.50 inches ahead of northern stream trof and associated cold front. Deep layer moisture is limited...but dynamics are rather strong with trof development so will continue to mention chance pops aft 18z Weds into early Thurs morning. Instability is modest with values generally< 500 j/kg...so kept just showers for now. Additional short wave energy and some moisture associated with secondary cold front impacts our region on Thurs. Areal coverage and intensity of showers will be limited...and mainly confined to the mountains with favorable upslope flow. The last in a series of short waves will impact our region on Friday...while vort is potent...moisture is lacking so maybe a few isolated showers...especially northern mountains. Temps ahead of cold front warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s with south to southwest winds. progged 850 and 925mb temps cool 4 to 6 degrees by 18z thursday...supporting 60s mountains to mid 70s warmer valleys. Additional cooling on brisk northwest winds occur on friday with progged 850mb temps in the single digits...supporting highs upper 50s to upper 60s/near 70f. Initially lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 60s...but by Saturday morning patchy frost is possible at slk and across the deeper valleys of the northeast kingdom. Thinking lows will range from the l/m 30s to upper 40s...except mid 50s near lake champlain by early Saturday morning. Average 1st frost at SLK is Sept 7th...so pretty close to normal. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
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Through 18Z Monday...Expecting showers and thunderstorms to develop across the region this afternoon into early this evening. Mainly VFR conditions expected with some areas of MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms til 03Z Sunday. Some areas of IFR/MVFR in fog from mainly 05Z til 12Z Monday, especially in sheltered valley locations that receive rainfall this afternoon and this evening. Outlook 18Z Monday through Friday... 18Z Monday through Thursday...mainly VFR through 18Z Wednesday, as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region. Some areas of MVFR in scattered rain showers 18Z Wednesday through 00Z Thursday, as a cold front moves through the region. Mainly VFR Thursday and Friday, as a ridge of high pressure builds slowly southeast from Canada.
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&& .MARINE... Winds will continue to increase out of the south today and reach the 15 to 25 knot range this afternoon and evening. Thus a lake wind advisory is in effect for this time period due to the stronger winds and choppy waters. In addition...the potential for thunderstorms will exist this afternoon and evening which will have the potential to produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/WGH SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...WGH MARINE...Evenson

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