Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281147 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 647 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, STARTING A COLDER TREND FOR THE WORK WEEK. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ON MONDAY, RESULTING IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE TEENS AND 20S THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 647 AM EST SUNDAY...BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS MOVED THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY, ENDING RAIN SHOWERS THERE. EXPECT THE BACK EDGE TO CONTINUE TO SWIFTLY MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BEFORE 14Z, AND EXIT SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. RADAR VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW WINDS DECREASING, SO EXPECT GUSTS TO DIMINISH IN THE MID MORNING HOURS. MILD TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS TRAVERSING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS OF 1140Z. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CAUSE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA BY MID-DAY. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFORE THE MAX TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE M20S-M30S AROUND 5PM. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH NOT MUCH CHANCE FOR FULL SUNSHINE TODAY, THOUGH SOME BREAKS/CLEARING ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FRONT, AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST AND LOW LEVEL JET EXITS EASTWARD IN THE LATE MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... AS OF 343 AM EST SUNDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT, DRYING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES, ALLOWING FOR DISSIPATING CLOUDS. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND MID 20S. ON MONDAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM NNW TO SSE, INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. MODELS SHOW WEAKENING DEFORMATION AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY, AND WASHING OUT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR BEHIND IT, WITH PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MONDAY MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO LOW 30S, WHILE MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS AT THE SUMMITS TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 343 AM EST SUNDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S...WHICH IS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND MAYBE A LITTLE BIT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...A PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN EVEN MORE NOTICEABLE CHANGE COMES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND BRINGS WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ULTIMATELY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTHWEST WHICH PUTS US IN THE WARM SECTOR. BASED ON THIS SCENARIO...LOOKING LIKE SNOW AT THE START OF THE EVENT AND THEN CHANGE TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MOST AREAS.
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&& .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS OF 1140Z...WITH WIND GUSTS SUBSIDING IN ITS WAKE AND SOME BREAKS IN OVC. VAD WIND PROFILES SHOWING WINDS ALOFT DIMINISHING, SO OCCURRENCE OF LLWS AND SFC GUSTS DECREASING. RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PROVIDING SOME MVFR CIGS ESP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...KSLK/KMPV/KRUT. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THIS MORNING, EXITING SOUTH EASTERN VERMONT AFTER 15Z, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST AND REMAIN AROUND 8-15KTS. ALSO CIGS SHOULD INCREASE TO VFR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT AT KSLK. HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10KTS PREVAIL WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF BREAK IN OVC. AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING, AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 12Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION AT KSLK WHERE WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW SCT -SHSN AND OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
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&& .MARINE...
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AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING AS SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS, RESULTING IN WAVES HEIGHTS OF 1 TO 3 FEET...WITH SOME HIGHER SWELLS POSSIBLE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING LAKE CHAMPLAIN FROM THE WEST, KEEPING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG WITH CHANNELING UP THE VALLEY PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. WHEN THE FRONT PASSES OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...KGM MARINE...KGM

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