Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 110717 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 317 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE NORTHEAST RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 103 AM EDT FRIDAY...CURRENT FORECAST FOR CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT STILL LOOKS GOOD...SO NO CHANGES MADE. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 344 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO TAKE PLACE. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY...THEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING IN REGARDS TO AN OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN ON THE HORIZON FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE WISCONSIN/MINNESOTA AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST UP THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT WITH INCREASING SURFACE INSTABILITY SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS COMES TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH LIKE THE LAST EVENT SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE WEAK TO MODERATE SIDE BUT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH PROGGED 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 60 KNOTS AND THE FORECAST AREA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING JUST WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE`LL SEE STORMS...BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...CALMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION AND IS REPLACED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS EACH DAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY. TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...BUT THEN COOL OFF TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS IS THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND DURING THE DAY. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 06Z SAT - 12Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z SUN - 00Z WED...VFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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