Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 231140 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 740 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 710 AM EDT THURSDAY...OPTED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS BY 1-3 DEG FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST TODAY PER LATEST TRENDS AND GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD OFFER HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN VT INTO THE DACKS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN THE SLV. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 405 AM EDT THURSDAY... LOOKING AT ANOTHER COOL AND RATHER BLUSTERY DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/LONG ISLAND COAST PIVOTS SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE BENCHMARK BY EARLY EVENING. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN INSISTENT THAT A BAND OF STEADIER RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY PIVOT WEST/NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE PER MOST RECENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...THUS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THIS PERIOD OUTSIDE THE SLV WHERE PCPN WILL BE MORE SHOWERY AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE PRIOR HOMOGENEOUS TRENDS AND SHOULD HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY IN THE 40S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND MODESTLY GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 50S FAR WEST IN THE SLV.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL ADVECTIVE REGIME. BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD. WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE. AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE. WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN MID- MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE...THOUGH UPSTREAM OBS ONLY SUPPORT VFR VSBY. EXCEPTION ON THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN BY MID- MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHERLY AT 8-12KTS THRU THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES. OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 12Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. 12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE SLV. && .MARINE... AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE. CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF HYDROLOGY...JMG MARINE...JMG

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