Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 240906 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 406 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN POTENTIALLY LEADING TO MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE RAIN ENDS EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH RANGE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT. DRIER...LESS WINDY WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM CHRISTMAS MORNING/... AS OF 337 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FULL LATITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS LEADING TO LONG FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS DEEPENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL TRACK GENERALLY NWD WELL WEST OF OUR AREA...REACHING THE DETROIT, MICHIGAN AREA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. HAVE SEEN OVERCAST SKIES LOCALLY WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER THE SNOWPACK EARLY THIS AM. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAINFALL MOVING NWD THRU WRN NY AND PA AT 0845Z...AND THIS STEADY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PW VALUES INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.25" BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SLOWLY CLIMB THRU THE LOW TO MID 40S, SO MUCH OF THE SNOW PACK WILL RIPEN AND ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPING RAINFALL. GOOD RUNOFF POTENTIAL CAUSING POOR DRAINAGE AND FIELD FLOODING BEGINNING TONIGHT. ALSO CONTINUE TO HAVE CONCERNS FOR A FEW MAIN STEM RIVERS REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE...INCLUDING THE WINOOSKI AT ESSEX JCT...THE OTTER CREEK AT CENTER RUTLAND...AND THE AUSABLE AT AUSABLE FORKS. MOST OF THE CRESTS SHOULD OCCUR LATE VERY TONIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE FLOOD WATCH WITH EXPECTATIONS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST CHRISTMAS DAY. FOR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL...LOOKING AT 0.60-1.20"...RANGING FROM LOWER VALUES IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TO HIGHER VALUES IN SERN VERMONT. AGAIN...COMBINATION OF THESE RAINFALL AMTS WITH THE SNOW MELT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME MINOR FLOODING IN SPOTS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STEADY IN THE LOW-MID 40S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 337 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7PM ON CHRISTMAS DAY. WE HAVE ALSO ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF NRN NY VALID 6AM THRU 6PM EST ON CHRISTMAS DAY. SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT SWEEPING THRU EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL ALLOW THE STEADIER RAIN TO EXIT EAST OF VT BY 12Z OR SO. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG P-GRADIENT SETS UP GUSTY SWLY WIND CONDITIONS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT KMSS...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS GUSTS TO 45 KTS ALREADY IN PLACE BY 12Z THURSDAY PER BOTH 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH GUSTS PEAKING NEAR 50-52KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN WARRANTED WIND HIGHLIGHTS...WITH THE GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUING UNTIL PBL STABILIZATION OCCURS TOWARD/AFTER SUNSET CHRISTMAS DAY. GRADIENT FLOW IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG ACROSS VT...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE WSW WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS IN MOST SECTIONS. LOW-LEVEL MOIST SWLY FETCH FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND TRAILING MID- LEVEL TROUGH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIGHT RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY...ESPECIALLY IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCED AREA INTO THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. COULD SEE A LIGHT COATING-1" SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MTN SUMMITS...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL ISSUES DUE TO SNOW WITH TEMPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WELL ABOVE FREEZING. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WHICH IS DEFINITELY AN ATYPICAL +12 TO +15DEG FROM CLIMATOLOGICAL MEANS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME PERIODS OF SUNNY BREAKS ON CHRISTMAS. QUIETER WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DIMINISHING WIND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING +2 TO +4C RANGE DURING FRIDAY. THUS...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S THURSDAY NIGHT (LOCALLY UPR 20S ADIRONDACKS AND NE KINGDOM) AND BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 326 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC, PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN WARMING SOUTHWEST FLOW; WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL BE REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO OUR NORTHWEST BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND, THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TIMING. THE FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT SUNDAY EVENING...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY, TRAVELING NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AGAIN THE DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM DIFFER ON EACH MODEL, BUT OVERALL AN ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING, RANGING FROM VFR TO LIFR. WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ATOP A RELATIVELY COLD GROUND AND A SNOWPACK, AREAS OF MIST/FOG WILL DEVELOP. INTERMITTENT LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL MIX IN WITH THE MIST OR FOG. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 4- 8 KTS (EXCEPT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT KRUT, AND NORTHEAST 6-8 KTS AT KMSS). MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. STRONGER WINDS AT KPBG/KRUT AND KBTV WILL SEE GENERALLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 35-40KTS DEVELOPING IN THE MID MORNING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. KRUT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DELAYING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TIL LATE IN THE DAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MVFR CIGS AT KMPV WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING. LLWS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. KSLK IS VFR WITH CALM WINDS BUT WITH MOIST ENVIRONMENT, EXPECT MVFR/IFR FOG/MIST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z-10Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LLWS ACCOMPANYING THESE CONDITIONS. LIFR CIGS ENTRENCHED OVER KMSS AND PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EVENING. NE WINDS WILL SEE LLWS OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THU-18Z THU...INITIAL MVFR/IFR DUE TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG A SHARP COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE CHRISTMAS DAY, BECOMING VFR/MVFR AS FRONT CLEARS IN THE AFTERNOON. SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST/NORTHWEST, WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 18Z THU-12Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. 12Z FRI-00Z SUN...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z SUN ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SHOW WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ026- 027-031-087. FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087. WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028>030- 034-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM

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