Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 242041 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 341 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1220 PM EST SATURDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS OF THIS UPDATE. COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS A WEAK BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES AND THE SPRINGFIELD OB IS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW SO I CONTINUED THE INCREASE IN POPS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE 1-2 INCHES PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD WORK OUT JUST FINE SO I LEFT THAT ALONE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA LOOK IN SHAPE TO WARM IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH BTV ALREADY UP TO 34 AND PBG AT 32. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LEFT ALONE AS IT IS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF THIS UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO CROSSES THE AREA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOME DECENT VORTICITY ADVECTION. MINS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES HANG AROUND TWENTY AS FRONT TAKES THE LONGEST TO REACH THERE. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN WIND DOWN TOWARDS MORNING. ONLY EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA BRINGING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDER OF THE TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE...SOME -20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 341 PM EST SATURDAY...QUITE A CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...AS ECMWF...GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA BOMBING OUT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. MODELS SPREAD SNOW FURTHER WEST INTO VERMONT AND INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER ON TUESDAY AS IT HAS THE LOW WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE BENCHMARK AT 18Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE EAST- NORTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK BY 18Z TUESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. HAVE OPTED TO GO HIGHER THAN THE SUPER-BLEND POPS ON TUESDAY AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL OF VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. MODELS SHOW SNOW WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW STARTS TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. HOWEVER...HAVE STILL GONE HIGHER THAN SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR MVFR CEILINGS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LOWER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM CANADA. EXPECTING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM 04Z-12Z SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FROM 07Z-14Z SUNDAY ACROSS VERMONT. EXPECTING SURFACE WIND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS FROM 06Z-14Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...DEVELOPING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY 26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH EQUIPMENT...WGH

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