Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 010513 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 113 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 956 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASING CYCLONIC 700-500MB FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS STRETCHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY TO NEAR WATERTOWN NY. THESE LEADING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EWD 20-30 MPH OVERNIGHT...AND WILL ULTIMATELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30 POPS ACROSS NRN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AREAWIDE WITH RAINFALL AMTS GENERALLY EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND 800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS...BUT STILL SEEING CGS AT 02Z WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE HORIZON. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5-10 KTS. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER TO AFFECT KSLK/KPBG/KBTV AND POSSIBLY KMPV/KMSS TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER REDEVELOP AFTER 16Z THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER LOOKING AT LATEST INFORMATION CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH AT THE KMSS TERMINAL IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .EQUIPMENT... AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO. PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...JMG/SLW AVIATION...JMG/MV EQUIPMENT...JMG

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.