Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 260540 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1240 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD AIR THAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1221 AM EST THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE LATE EVENING UPDATE FEATURED A FEW MINOR TWEAKS -- MAINLY TO THE CLOUDS AND SNOW FLURRY ACTIVITY AREAS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ACCUMULATION FROM THE SNOW, BUT IT DID MANAGE TO SPREAD INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVER THE PAST HOUR. NOTICED THAT MORRISVILLE IS ALSO REPORTING SOME LIGHT SNOW. PRETTY LIGHT STUFF, SO IT`S NOT SHOWING UP ON RADAR ALL THAT WELL. STILL ANTICIPATE THE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH AND FADE AWAY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME (DEWPOINT -5 AT HIGHGATE AND MONTREAL, 0F AT PLATTSBURGH BUT +4 AT BURLINGTON). STILL THINK TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK, SO DID NOT MAKE ANY MODIFICATIONS THERE. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 158 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE..SOME BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY BUT IT WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER FRI-SAT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MORE ARCTIC AIR BUT MODIFIED COMPARED TO RECENT BOUTS. MAX T MAINLY 8-18 IN THE VALLEYS AND SLIGHTLY COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS THU-FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT AS COLD AS LAST ARCTIC OUTBREAK...YET STILL SUB-ZERO FOR THE NEXT THREE NIGHTS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...THUS THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS NOT LIKELY TO REQUIRE ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES. AGAIN...MODERATING TREND BEGINS JUST AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 258 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT WITH SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE SATURDAY...LIMITING MOISTURE AND LIFT...SO EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO START THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT, SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. S-SW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY, MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA/GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA SUNDAY SPREADING WEST TO EAST. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN NW FLOW DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE M20S-L30S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS RIDGING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EMERGES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE DUE TO FETCH FROM GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES NORTHEAST. ANOTHER BOUT OF WARM TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW, WHICH MAY LEAD TO A LITTLE BIT OF MIXED PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV/RUT TILL ABOUT 09Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE RACING IN FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THURSDAY...WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET. WINDS NORTHERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 06Z FRIDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SLW NEAR TERM...NEILES/NASH SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...RJS

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