Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 262313 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 713 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 1500 FEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT... WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...POSITIVE TILT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IS CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET. THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE COMING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SOME VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT STILL LOOKING AT A SOLID 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 2000 FEET WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE SUMMITS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THUS LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS VERMONT. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS INTO SATURDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN MONDAY NIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN VERMONT MOUNTAINS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH A LARGE PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT, WITH A VERY SLOW TRANSITION TO MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS INTO FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES, AREAS OF MIST AND OBSCURED MOUNTAINS ARE ADDITIONAL AVAITION CONSIDERATIONS THIS TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAFS SHOW IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS - WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN (SNOW AT SLK) AND MIST. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MOSTLY DUE TO THE MIST, GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S AND IS ESPECIALLY LOW IN AREAS WHERE COLDER SNOWPACK EXISTS. FRONTAL WAVE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST- SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/WET SNOW AND THEN TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF ALL SNOW THROUGH 07Z. SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFIC TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVERS. CEILINGS STAY LOW GIVEN SHALLOW INVERSION EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE THOUGH WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH AS FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. FOR FRIDAY: ASIDE FROM LINGERING MORNING SNOW SHOWERS FOR MPV AND SLK, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH INITIAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TRENDING TO MVFR. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 4-8 KTS. OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS. 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING/ICE JAM CONCERNS. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40S...WHERE SNOWPACK IS NOT SIGNIFICANT AND SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ABOVE 2000 FEET. SO RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WILL BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS... RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE SLOWLY BUT GIVEN THEY ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...RIVER ICE WILL BE MELTING AND COULD BREAK UP A BIT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING TONIGHT TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL ICE MELT/BREAKUP. THE SMALLER RIVERS OVER VERMONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ICE BREAKUP THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO HYDROLOGY...EVENSON EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.