Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 260801 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 401 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cloudy, cool, and wet day is expected across the North Country as coastal low pressure slowly moves away from Southern New England. High pressure will produce a dry Saturday and Sunday...with more showers arriving Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures will be near normal for Saturday...but trend toward above normal values by Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 348 AM EDT Friday...Current radar shows a band of moderate to locally heavy rain rotating thru southern/central and eastern VT this morning with a couple rumbles of thunder. Have mention isolated thunder in grids for the next couple of hours...noted VSF had reported lightning and received 0.66 of rain in 2 hours between 06-08z. Water vapor shows well developed cyclone across southern New England with classic comma head cloud structure over our cwa associated with warm/cold conveyor belt interaction. The closed/negatively tilted mid/upper level circulation will track across southern New England today...before lifting northeast into the Northern Atlantic tonight. This places our central/eastern cwa in favorable deformation zones associated with comma head today...with widespread light to localized moderate rainfall expected. The highest pops/qpf fields will be eastern dacks and points east...with precip amounts ranging from 0.25 to 0.75. Thinking an additional 0.50 here in the CPV by 00z tonight. Helping to enhance precip in the cpv will be northerly winds and associated terrain convergence...especially aft 15z today. Also...flow becomes highly blocked with froude values <0.50 today. Will mention pops near 100% east/central and taper off to likely/chc SLV today. Given all the clouds and precip...along with developing northerly winds...expect temps to hold steady mainly upper 40s to mid/upper 50s. Tonight...mid/upper level cyclonic circulation and associated surface low pres slowly lift northeast...with areal coverage of precip becoming terrain focused. Some patchy fog is possible with saturated boundary layer conditions...but clouds and lack of radiational cooling should keep fog to protected valleys and patchy. If more clearing occurs than anticipated...than fog could be more widespread...but both gfs/nam show lingering 1000 to 500mb rh fields >70s for most of the night. Clouds will keep temps steady in the mid/upper 40s mountains to mid 50s valleys.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 338 AM EDT Friday...Short term begins rather quietly on Saturday as high pressure builds into the region to start the Memorial Day weekend. Diminishing cloud cover will help temperatures return to more seasonable norms with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in upper 40s to low 50s. The trend continues on Sunday as the high pressure ridge crests over the area bringing another day of nice conditions for the majority of of the day. Another day of clearing skies and southwesterly flow will see high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s before clouds begin to creep back as the ridge shifts east. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 338 AM EDT Friday... The long term starts out with an upper level low pressure system tracking west of the Great Lakes and lifts a warm front through the North Country during the overnight to pre-dawn hours of Monday. Late-morning to early afternoon Monday will see a weak cold front swing through with shortwave energy, bringing with it showers with perhaps a thunderstorm or two. Tuesday through Friday will see on and off showers, mainly afternoon and evening, as a second cold front and several nuance post frontal troughs swing through the region. Cold advection will bring 850mb temps down from 7-10C on Tue to around 5C Wed and 4C on Thu. The cold advection and daytime heating will contribute to very weak instability and scattered showers. High temperatures will start out in the 70s on Tue before falling back into the 60s Wed and Thu. Lows will in the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...Very challenging first 6 to 12 hours for our taf sites...as conditions change from vfr/mvfr to widespread ifr. Radar shows a band of light to moderate rain rotating toward our taf sites this morning and utilizing the HRRR composite reflectivity has this at RUT by 07-08z...MPV around 08z...and BTV/PBG by 09z. Expecting cigs/vis trending toward mvfr conditions with band of rain...and as winds shift to the north/northwest btwn 10-14z this morning...expect ifr cigs to develop in CPV...including PBG/RUT/BTV. Prevailing northeast flow and low cigs already will keep MSS at ifr conditions. Latest soundings show cigs continuing to lower at slk as winds shift to a northerly direction with ifr likely by sunrise. Widespread IFR cigs likely by 14z...with periods of ifr vis possible in the heavier convective shower elements. IFR cigs will prevail into the evening hours...with a slow improving trend toward 06z Saturday. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Memorial Day: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: VFR. Likely SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Taber SHORT TERM...MV LONG TERM...MV AVIATION...Taber

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