Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 170803
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
403 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
The next few days will be a bit unsettled with some isolated to
scattered rain showers in the valleys and snow showers in the
mountains. Any snow accumulations will be light and confined to the
higher peaks. The shower chances will end later in the week but
temperatures will remain around or below climatological normals.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 358 AM EDT Sunday...A line of heavier precipitation is
currently moving across the forecast area from west to east. It
should leave Vermont by mid- morning and only a few showers should
remain behind it. Total liquid equivalent precipitation will be
under a quarter inch except in the mountains where totals up to 0.4
inches are possible. Snow levels will be around 2500 ft so any
accumulations will be limited to the highest terrain. Behind the
line of precipitation, lapse rates will steepen and deep mixing will
occur. This should cause a few convective showers during the day.
West to southwest flow will limit orographic showers to the far
northern Greens where there will be some snow showers in the highest
elevations. Highs in the broad valleys will be in the upper 40s to
around 50 but with the steep lapse rates, highs in the mountains
will only be a few degrees above freezing. Any convection should
dissipate overnight but with temperatures dropping close to
freezing, any lingering showers could fall as snow anywhere. A very
similar setup will occur on Monday where more scattered convective
showers and orographic precipitation will occur, with the orographic
precipitation again mostly confined to the far northern Greens.
However, winds will begin to shift toward more northwesterly later
during the day and this should allow orographic snow showers to fall
father south on the Greens as well. Flow should be unblocked so the
orographic precipitation should fall closer to the ridgetops or even
on the lee sides or the mountains. A shortwave will pivot through
later in the day on Monday and enhance the snow showers as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 402 AM EDT Sunday...Precipitation chances will be decreasing
with upslope northwesterly flow continuing to favor isolated to
scattered snow showers over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains into
Tuesday. Temperatures will trend cooler behind the boundary with
cold air advection dropping lows into the teens for the Adirondacks
and 20s elsewhere Tuesday morning. Likewise, high temperatures will
be trending down as well, generally in the 30s a few degrees below
seasonal averages. With breezes conditions may feel comparatively
brisk to recent temperatures.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 402 AM EDT Sunday...Longwave troughing settles over eastern
Canada with the North Country likely remaining towards the base of
the trough. A frontal system seems probable with most models
projecting passage Wednesday/Wednesday night. The continental nature
of the airmasses will largely preclude heavy precipitation, but a
few inches of snow above 2500ft seems reasonable while flow pattern
favors a quick moving system. With projected zonal flow south of the
region, and position of the longwave trough, conditions should
remain unsettled through the end of the week into the weekend. Model
consensus favors colder than average temperatures for Thursday with
highs struggling to reach 32 degrees. The rest of the extended
forecast will feature near/slightly below average temperatures
and periods of lower elevation rain showers and high elevation
snow showers.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...A line of heavier rain will move across
the region tonight, followed by lighter showers. The heavier
rain may briefly lower visibilities into the MVFR range but the
rest of the showers should be light enough to keep visibilities
VFR. As the precipitation moves in, ceilings will quickly drop.
They should reach MVFR at most terminals though BTV and PBG
should stay VFR. Ceilings at SLK will likely fall to IFR for a
brief time this morning. Ceilings will then rise relatively
quickly during the day due to deep daytime mixing. Ceilings at
all terminals should therefore rise to VFR by some point later
in the morning. There may be a few snow showers during the day
at SLK that could briefly reduce visibilities though. Winds will
transition from southwesterly tonight to more westerly in the
day tomorrow. Wind shear should diminish pretty soon after
daybreak as some of the stronger winds aloft will be able to mix
down.
Outlook...
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Likely SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Myskowski