Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 041301 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 901 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND UPSTATE VERMONT TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE MID WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 901 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AT THE PRESENT TIME ACROSS MOST OF THE BTV FORECAST AREA. NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF KSLK TO THE NORTHERN END OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. THIS IS MOVING TO THE EAST. MANY OF THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS HAVE SOME FOG...BUT THIS SHOULD BURN OFF OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS BASED ON OBS AND LOWERED POPS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. PREVIOUS...SFC DEWPTS ARE STILL ELEVATED IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE GFS/NAM INDICATE SBCAPES ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS NRN-CNTRL VT. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM. THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY FOCUS AT LEAST SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...THERE MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED SEVERE OR TWO ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WERE USED IN THE GRIDS AND ZONES ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LIKELY AND CHC VALUES WERE USED FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SOME SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY BEFORE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/.. AS OF 445 AM EDT...THE SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING TONIGHT. SOME SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AS COLD AS -15C TO -18C OVER NRN NY AND VT. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN THE W/SW FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY IMPACT THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND NRN DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 50S TO L60S WITH A FEW COLDER READINGS OVER THE MTNS. WEDNESDAY...ALMOST A REPEAT OF TUESDAY WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING. SPC ACTUALLY OUTLOOKS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF NRN NY AND N- CNTRL VT IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED. THE COLD POOL OF THE ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR AUGUST DRIFTS OVER THE FCST AREA. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SHOULD FOCUS SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE A GOOD BET AGAIN. HAIL MAY ACTUALLY BE THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH H500 TEMPS IN THE -17C T -19C RANGE...AND DECENT SFC HEATING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN TUE WITH LOWER TO M70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 60S TO AROUND 70F OVER THE MTNS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING. THE H500 TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +5C TO +7C...WHICH IS 1 TO 2 STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME IN AUGUST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER THE REGION. THU-THU NIGHT...STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VT DUE TO THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT BREEZY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THE HIGH LOOKS TO BUILD IN OVER NY AND VT THU NIGHT WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ON TAP. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A TAD BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... DUE TO THE EMERGENCY BACKUP...THE LONG TERM WAS KEPT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH COASTAL LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS OF 441 PM EDT MONDAY... PERSISTENCE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION ALBEIT LESSENING INTENSITY AS WE GET TO LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. PRETTY UNEVENTFUL...COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH AUGUST SUN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INSTABILITY AND LOW THREAT OF ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM FRI/FRI NIGHT BUT STILL LEANING THAT WE`LL BE ON NORTHERN EDGE AT WORST...THUS KEEPING MAINLY DRY FROM THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE AOB SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT ONLY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/40S COLD SPOTS. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION... THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR PREDOMINATES...BUT EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN IN THE 14-17Z TIME PERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MOVING INTO VERMONT TERMINALS THEREAFTER. I/VE WENT WITH MVFR +SHRA FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO AMEND GIVEN THE EXACT TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH TURBULENCE...HAIL AND LIGHTNING ALL POSSIBLE. SHOWERS/STORMS END BY EVENING WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 10 KTS BY EVENING. OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 12Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS. 12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .EQUIPMENT... AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO. PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WASULA NEAR TERM...WASULA/DIRIENZO SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...WASULA/SLW AVIATION...LOCONTO EQUIPMENT...JMG

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