Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 211458 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 958 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Milder but breezy weather is expected for today with highs in ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s. A cold front will move through the region late tonight and Wednesday, bringing scattered rain and snow showers. Thanksgiving Day is expected to be dry with temperatures in the 30s. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 957 AM EST Tuesday...Forecast on track this morning for a sunny breezy day with highs from the mid 40s to the mid 50s at 925mb temps rise to about +5C at 18z. If we were to mix out the inversion present at 900 mb it could even be a bit warmer. All model raw model temperatures running too cool at the moment and seem to be struggling with the expected melting of any existing valley snow cover. MOS guidance seems more reasonable. 88D VWPs show SSW winds up to 40kt right now at KCXX/KTYX so forecast of wind gusts 20-30+ mph look good also. Previous discussion...Increasing southerly flow today with warm air advection ahead of approaching cold front will help to push maximum temperatures up to around 50 across much of the area with 40s east of the Greens where it is harder for the warm air to make it into. Winds should gust to about 30-35 mph out of the South. Precipitation moves into the area from the West this evening, probably after 7pm or so in the Saint Lawrence valley and the Champlain valley by midnight. Boundary layer temperatures should be warm enough to support mainly just rain, though it will be cold enough in the higher elevations to support some snow showers as well. Temperatures will start to drop behind the cold front during the day on Wednesday after a pretty mild overnight period with plenty of clouds, winds and showers and temperatures in the 30s. As the cold front pushes into the North Country we will see remaining rain showers change over to snow showers. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 222 AM EST Tuesday...Overall the short term period continues to look quiet with high pressure cresting over the region on Thanksgiving day. Variable cloudiness is expected though with an upper trough exiting the region Wednesday night, and mid/high clouds increasing Thanksgiving day in advance of the next system, but we should see some peaks of sun. Temps will be seasonably cool with lows in the teens/20s and highs ranging through the 30s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 222 AM EST Tuesday...While the long term period continues to look active, there are no really no big systems on the horizon to speak of. The tail end of a decaying cold front will bring some scattered snow showers to the region Thursday night into Friday morning, followed by brief high pressure for the remainder of Friday into early Friday night. The weekend continues to look unsettled, but the latest trends are for one area of low pressure to track well north of the region, and another well offshore on Saturday, both delivering limited impacts to the northeast. The best chance for precipitation actually now appears to be post-frontal passage Saturday afternoon/night and through the weekend where upslope flow will enhance snow shower activity across the higher elevations. It will be noticeably warmer for Friday and Saturday though with deep southwesterly flow developing aloft. Highs should bump into the 30s/40s before falling back into the 20s/30s for Sunday/Monday as the upper trough settles overhead. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12z Wednesday...Clouds have been on the decrease all night with some drier air moving into our area from the South. Winds will increase from the south and southwest. After 15z winds will strengthen with gusts in the 15 to 25 knot range for the remainder of the period. Gusts to 30 knots will be possible at BTV. Have LLWS at MSS and SLK this morning as a SW jet around 50 kts is evident across N NY. Clouds will begin to move into the area from the west after 21z. Rain and snow showers move into the area from the west after 00z and spreading eastward overnight. Outlook... Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thanksgiving Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. && .MARINE... As of 957 AM EST Tuesday...Lake wind advisory in effect for winds 20-30 kts out of the South with gusts approaching 40 kts. Winds currently 33 kt at Colchester reef and 20 kt at Diamond Island. This will create significant wave heights 3 to 6 ft. These conditions may prove hazardous to those operating small craft, especially on the broad lake and in Vermont bays/inlets with southerly exposures. Gusty south winds will abate overnight. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles/Sisson NEAR TERM...Neiles/Sisson SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Neiles MARINE...

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