Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 301837 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 237 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WE`LL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 131 PM EDT SATURDAY...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT MORE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THEN WE HAD FORECASTED. ALSO BLOWING OFF THE LAKE IN PLATTSBURGH. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...STILL SUNNY AND TEMPS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. AFTER A COLD START TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK WE`LL SEE TEMPS REACH THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60S IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND CLOSER TO 65 POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV IS NOW 61 DEGREES SO WE`LL BE CLOSE TO THAT. IT WILL BE DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF BTV AS WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION STARTS IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF HIGHER POPS A BRIEF LULL IN DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ON THE INTERMITTENT/LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG POSSIBLE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. RATHER UNIFORM LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED. BY MONDAY AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE PULL NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVING THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PER WPC/BLENDED QPF PROGS AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED UNDER GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. DID OPT TO LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MAX TEMP GUIDANCE OFFERING NEAR STEADY READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AREA WIDE. BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE ON TRACK TO EXIT NORTHEAST WITH STEADIER PCPN ENDING DESPITE LINGERING CLOUDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE ONE MAINLY DRY 24- 36 HOUR PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MODERATING HIGHS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY IN THE 58 TO 65 RANGE WITH SOME INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. MAINLY SKC TODAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN CANADA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT BUT REMAINING VFR WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 5000-8000 FT. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS. AFTER 12Z SUNDAY WILL SEE CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER FURTHER AND CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED. 12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...NEILES/SISSON SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...NEILES/SISSON

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