Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 020523 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 123 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 103 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST NUMBERS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED COVERAGE OF FOG JUST A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE VISBILITIES ALREADY REDUCED IN MANY SPOTS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD 90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSSING THE AREA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN BR/FG ARE LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK/KMSS IN THE 06-14Z TIME FRAME WITH SOME MVFR BR LIKELY AT KBTV/KPBG. CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR AFTER 14Z UNDER RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...LAHIFF

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