Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 262009 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 309 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND COLD WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MORNING MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL TREND MILDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO OUR WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 305 PM EST THURSDAY...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL EAST OF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST MAINTAINED MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THERE IS A TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 500-300MB PV MAX ACROSS NRN OH AT 19Z...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS EVENING. THE 12Z BTV-4 AND BTV-12KM WRF RUNS SUGGEST CONTINUED MID-UPPER CLOUDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FLURRY ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...MAINLY THROUGH 03Z. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...BUT DID MAINTAIN 20 POPS FOR ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY THIS EVENING MAINLY ADIRONDACKS INTO RUTLAND COUNTY VT. ONCE THIS UPPER TROUGH PASSES...WE SHOULD TREND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKEWISE BE BUILDING EWD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SO IT APPEARS WE/LL HAVE LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING PROSPECTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MOS CONSENSUS LOOKED REASONABLE - WITH LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW...AND LOCALLY 15 BELOW IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM. JUST MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DIURNAL CURVE TO SHOW MORE RAPID TEMP DROP ONCE CLOUDS LESSEN LATE. WINDS GENERALLY NORTH 5-10 MPH WILL GENERALLY LESSEN TO LESS THAN 5 MPH AFTER 02Z. SFC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW LATE FEBRUARY NORMALS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 305 PM EST THURSDAY...STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE (1040-1044 MB) REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS. AIR MASS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE OVER TIME. DIDN/T SEE ANY REASON TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE MOS CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS ZERO TO -15F FRIDAY NIGHT...INTO THE LOWER 20S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY...AND THEN +5 TO -5F FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT LIGHT INTO THE S-SW SATURDAY AROUND 10 MPH...AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. POPS NIL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 309 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY IN WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF THE WESTERN/UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, LOW IS ILL-DEFINED BUT COME LATE SUNDAY WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING SW TO NE. SUNDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NW AND ALLOWING RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. WHAT MAY POSSIBLY BE A MAJOR STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACK TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS STORM ARE AS FOLLOWS: WITH FETCH OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO, GFS SHOWING PWATS HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH, WHICH COULD LEAD TO HEAVY PRECIP MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG S-SW JET OF 40-55KTS AT 850MB TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PRECIP ENHANCEMENT ON SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD FACING SLOPES AND SHADOWING ON EASTERN SLOPES AND VALLEYS, AS WELL AS STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS SHOW TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, FURTHER SUPPORTING STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. WARMING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MIXED PRECIP, BUT TIMING AND JUST HOW WARM IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ECMWF LAGGING BEHIND GFS IN TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARMING WHICH WILL AFFECT POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PTYPES. THESE MODELS HAVE ALSO NOT SHOWED RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY YET. THIS FAR OUT, HAVE MENTIONED SNOW MIX WITH/TO RAIN IN SOUTHERN VALLEYS, MIXING BACK TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACR0SS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...KEEPING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME MORE SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 30 SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...SOME AREAS REACHING THE M30S WEDNESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SIGNIFICANT WARMING ALOFT WITH POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS AT 850MB SOME POINT ON WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WARMING AHEAD OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE TEENS LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME VFR LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD. LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT KSLK AND KRUT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z AS INDICATED BY VCSH. AS UPPER TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA AFTER 06Z, CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK. WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NW AT 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE OUT OF THE W-NW AT 3-8KTS FRIDAY MID-MORNING. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 18Z FRIDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z SUNDAY-06Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR. 06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR LATE TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM

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