Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 161849 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 249 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Another round of valley rain and mountain snow tonight through Sunday. Cooler temperatures are expected to begin next week as we remain under an unsettled pattern that will feature periods of showers.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...Vertically stacked low pressure system will pass north of our forecast area tonight into Sunday. Precipitation will spread across our forecast area, and mainly expect a mix of rain and snow showers with the snow showers mainly in the higher elevations. Total precipitation from tonight through Sunday afternoon will be three tenths of an inch or less, with some shadowing evident in the Champlain valley with strong westerly flow. Minimum temperatures overnight will dip into the lower 30s to around 40. Precipitation begins after about 8 pm in the St Lawrence valley, then pushing eastward and spreading across our whole forecast area by early Sunday morning. Showers will continue into the day on Sunday as flow becomes northwesterly and shortwave energy continues to cross the area. Breezy conditions are expected. Maximum temperatures will reach the lower 40s to around 50. Showers will come to an end on Sunday night as we start to lose moisture. Minimum temperatures on Sunday night will be cooler, dropping into the mid 20s to lower 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 224 PM EDT Saturday...Longwave polar trough settles into the region Monday/Monday night with scattered rain/snow shower activity. Some nominal accumulations of several inches possible in the higher terrain during this period, with valleys seeing little accum. Highs trend cooler (mid 30s to lower 40s) with overnight lows in the 20s to around 30 - though honestly this is near seasonal mid-March norms.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 224 PM EDT Saturday...Active weather continues into mid/late week as the polar longwave trough becomes established across the region with seasonably cold temperatures and a few additional chances of snow showers. Best shot of snow showers occurs Wed/Wed night with additional shortwave energy. Some mix with rain showers possible in the valley floors with additional minor accumulations possible, mainly in elevated terrain where ski resorts will likely benefit from a few additional inches. It will continue to trend chillier w/daytime highs in the 30s to around 40 Tue/Wed cooling into the 20s to lower 30s by Thursday/Friday under modestly gusty west/northwest flow. By next weekend we pull out of the colder regime, though with some possible storminess during the transition period. Deterministic solutions are showing no agreement on degree of phasing and amplitude evolution of the longwave pattern. For now, have broadbrushed 30/40 PoPs across the area with moderation of temperatures back toward normal.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Through 18Z Sunday...Mainly VFR/MVFR conditions through around 00Z when the next precipitation comes through. MVFR/IFR conditions will spread overnight tonight with a mix of rain and higher elevation snow showers, degradation of flight categories will mainly be from ceilings lowering. Some low level wind shear possible in the early morning hours at EFK and SLK. PBG, RUT and MSS will have showers come to an end Sunday morning, while other sites will have to wait till the afternoon. Outlook... Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Neiles

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