Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 152045 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 345 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will exit the region tonight and allow for a low pressure system to gradually move into the Northeast Tuesday through Wednesday. Clouds will be on the increase along with the chances for light to moderate snow across the area and warmer temperatures. Most of the North Country will see 1 to 3 inches of snow with 3 to 6 inches of snow over southern Vermont.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 345 PM EST Monday...High pressure will move out of the area and we will start to see a gradual increase in mid and high level moisture across the area tonight. This will lead to temperatures not as cold as the last two mornings with lows generally from 5 above to 5 below.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 345 PM EST Monday...Have issued a winter weather advisory for Rutland...Windsor...and Orange counties of Vermont from Noon on Tuesday through 11 AM on Wednesday. Expecting 3 to 5 inches of snow in this area with localized amounts to 6 inches...especially over the extreme southern portions of Rutland and Windsor counties. Elsewhere during this time period looking at 1 to 3 inches of snow. Approaching upper trough on Tuesday stays more of an open wave as it moves eastward across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. This should be a limiting factor in significant precipitation over the area and feel data is showing a bit too much precipitation for this type of pattern. With the southwest flow aloft there will be a northwest to southeast precipitation gradient and southern areas will have the best chance for the accumulating snow...which is why we went ahead and placed Rutland/Windsor/Orange counties in an advisory with lesser amounts elsewhere. Snow should be light in intensity during the day on Tuesday with best period of accumulating snows coming Tuesday night through Wednesday morning before trough axis moves east of the area and precipitation tapers off to some snow showers Wednesday afternoon and night. Warmer temperatures are expected both Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 20s both days.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 306 AM EST Monday...Main story during the long-term period will be continued moderation of temperatures across the North Country as W-SW low-level flow regime develops across the ern Great Lakes into the nern CONUS. While the warm up won`t be as dramatic as what was experienced last Friday, should see high temperatures rise into the upr 20s Thursday, low-mid 30s Friday, mid-upr 30s on Saturday, and potentially into the 40s for Sunday. Any precipitation is expected to be light, limited to potentially weak/fast moving mid- level northern stream shortwave troughs embedded in zonal flow, and detached from any more significant moisture from lower latitudes. Timing is uncertain in fast mid-upr tropospheric flow, but currently max PoPs only in the 20-30% for possible light snow showers Thursday, and potential mix of rain or snow showers over the weekend. There may be a more significant frontal system passing to our west Sunday night into Monday, bringing a wintry mix trending toward mainly rain based on expected low track and associated vertical temperature profiles. This system is at the very end - to just beyond - the current long-term forecast period, so we`ll continue to monitor trends. With ice jams likely still in place, may see some renewed hydro concerns toward the end of the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions and calm to light winds will prevail through most of the TAF period, with a general trend towards low VFR and eventually MVFR ceilings by the end of the period. Expect scattered high clouds to thicken and lower to 100-150 AGL between 00Z and 06Z, then further lower to 035-060 AGL between 06Z and 12Z before dropping to 015-030 AGL after 12Z. The exception will be MSS/SLK, where ceilings are expected to drop to below 030 AGL by 09Z. Snow will spread over MSS/SLK/RUT by 16Z, reducing VFR visibilities to MVFR/IFR. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SN, Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 11 AM EST Wednesday for VTZ010>012-019. NY...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Banacos AVIATION...Verasamy

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