Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 270552 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1252 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TOWARDS MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH RADAR INDICATES BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARE WEAKENING...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT EXPECT WE WILL BE ABLE TO START DROPPING THEM FROM WEST TO EAST WITH NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. SNOWFALL TOTALS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH AROUND A FOOT IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE...THOUGH DID TIGHTEN SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING EFFECTS HAVE DEVELOPED ON AND OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED OFF RADAR ESTIMATES IN THE BANDED AREA...HAVE UPGRADED ESSEX, NY TO A WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY IN WHICH BANDING EFFECTS HAVE BEEN MORE PREVALENT THIS EVENING. RADAR SNOWFALL ESTIMATES SHOWING A TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...WHERE TOTALS RANGE FROM ABOUT 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ESSEX, NY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ADDISON VT...TO AS LITTLE AS 1-2 INCHES NORTH AND WEST OF A PLATTSBURGH TO ST ALBANS LINE. IN FACT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING. LATEST MSAS PROGS SHOWING 997 COASTAL LOW NOW PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AS OF 930 PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/LIFT TO PIVOT EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING MUCH LIGHTER SNOWS/FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AREAS TO AVERAGE IN THE 6-12 INCH RANGE...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS...WITH CUSTOMARY VARIABILITY OF COURSE. LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO FALL GENERALLY INTO THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRONT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS OUR REGION...BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY REGION BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 1 AND 3C. ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRONT WITH NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS AGAIN. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT ATTM. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KMSS THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. VSBYS HAVE LIFTED TO 1-2SM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 12Z WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. MEANWHILE...CIGS WILL RANGE BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 12Z THOUGH MVFR CIGS PREVAIL. AT KMSS...FINALLY SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS FILTER IN WHICH WILL BECOME OVC025 BY 12Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY. 00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003>012-016>019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001- 002. NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ034- 035. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028- 031. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...LAHIFF

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