Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 232008 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 408 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Numerous showers with scattered thunderstorms, some with heavy rainfall will continue across the area this evening before tapering off overnight. After a mainly dry Saturday a generally unsettled weather pattern returns for much of next week with daily chances for showers and a few storms. Temperatures remain near seasonal norms for early summer. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM EDT Friday...Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the Adirondacks into portions of northern VT through 11 pm. Latest analysis showing deep and moist southwesterly flow continues across the area this afternoon ahead of a slowly advancing surface front across the eastern Great Lakes south into the Ohio Valley. In this airmass scattered to numerous showers and a few heavier thunderstorms will continue into this evening before the front clears east and precipitation tapers off overnight. Given near saturated soils and antecedent 1-2 inch rainfall in the Flash Flood Watch area it won`t take much to cause hydro issues. Threat is conditional at this point with most recent CAM QPF output quite varied in convective evolution over the next 3 to 6 hours. Problematic is a lack of steeper lapse rates aloft to foster more robust vertical cloud growth. That said, we remain in a 1.8 to 2.0 PWAT airmass so efficient rainfall processes will occur with locally heavy downpours a near sure bet. By later tonight areas of mist/patchy fog likely under variably cloudy skies. Stuck close to blended temperature guidance offering lows in the 60s. By Saturday into Saturday night a brief period of drying can be expected for most areas as we lie between shortwave troughs on the southern edge of a dominant polar trough across central Canada. Additional weak low level troughing settling south toward the intl border during the afternoon may spark scattered showers/isolated storms across the far north, but most of the day should be rain-free for most areas. Highs similar to today (upper 70s to lower 80s), though humidity will be more tolerable as dewpoints lower back into the 50s over time. Lows Saturday night in the 50s to locally near 60 in milder valley locales. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
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As of 359 PM EDT Friday...Broad upper level trof and weak surface wave moving to the north of the international border will provide a chance for shower and a few thunderstorms once again on Sunday. Have increased rain chances over previous forecast based on the preponderance of available guidance. Instability is marginal, but sufficient for at least isolated thunder.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 359 PM EDT Friday...Great Lakes and northeast will continue to be under the influence of a broad upper level trough of low pressure through the middle of the week before more zonal flow returns to ther region. Weak shortwaves will rotate around the trough providing the chance for showers and storms. Despite the flattening flow at the end of the week, a weak boundary laid out just north of the area will continue to provide convective chances at the end of the work week.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Saturday...Changeable conditions through the period with a mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR expected. Numerous showers/sct thunderstorms producing locally heavy downpours to continue through this evening. Heavier precipitation cores to drop vsbys to MVFR/IFR with MVFR cigs and low probabilities of gusty winds. Later tonight steadier showers/isolated storms gradually end west to east with passage of cold front. Vsbys generally lower in the 4-6sm range with patchy br/fg and MVFR/IFR stratus in the 02-12Z time frame. After 12Z conds improve to VFR. Winds generally light south to southwesterly 6-12 kts through the period. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA/TSRA...mainly north Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 1030 AM EDT Friday...Storms will have high rainfall rates today, and training storms moving over same location could produce areas of flash flooding in the Flash Flood Watch area, where 0.75 to locally 2 inches of precipitation fell earlier today. With the overnight rains, 1 hour FFG has decreased into the 1.0 to 1.5 inch range, with 3-hourly guidance running from 1.5 to around 2 inches. With the lack of an organized forcing mechanism for storms this afternoon heavy rainfall will be hit or miss, but latest output suggests instability on the south side of warm front to our immediate north may drive additional activity into the watch area. Per coordination with NERFC additional amounts of 1 to 2 inches is forecast, which raises concerns for smaller watersheds. Larger rivers and will see modest rises but should remain within banks. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for VTZ005>010- 017-018. NY...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ028>031- 034-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Manning LONG TERM...Manning AVIATION...JMG HYDROLOGY...JMG/Hanson

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