Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 300819 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 419 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REACHING THE MID 80S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK SFC LOW MOVING EWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...850MB THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO THE REGION...WITH VALUES OF +15 TO +16C BY 00Z THIS EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITHIN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE...SO WILL SEE PERIODS OF FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOOKING AT HIGHS REACHING THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. S-SW WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH...BUT LOCALLY 15-25 MPH IN GUSTS (AND SUSTAINED 15-25 KTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TODAY). WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE DAY AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED S-SW WINDS. THIS WILL HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST SECTIONS. LIKEWISE...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S...AND LOCALLY INTO THE MID 60S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY ACROSS NRN NY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN VT. ENOUGH WIND/INCR CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS MID- LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHEARS EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO ACROSS NRN NY AND VT BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE RESULTS IN PW VALUES OF 1.8-2" ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT OF INSTABILITY...DO ANTICIPATE SOME SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. COMBINED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL UVV...WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS WITH BEST POTL FOR INSTABILITY. GIVEN HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND PW VALUES...CONTINUED WITH IDEA WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WLY SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 20-25 KTS...AND COMBINED WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SVR THREAT. STORMS SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING EWD ENOUGH THAT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD THREAT. THAT SAID...A FEW LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1+" CAN/T BE RULED OUT. POPS GENERALLY 60-80 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT DURING SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 78-81F ACROSS THE REGION. SYSTEM SHEARS TO OUR EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH GENERALLY FLAT SEA- LVL PRESSURE FIELD SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG (ESPECIALLY AREAS GETTING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SUNDAY). LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS. MONDAY APPEARS GENERALLY QUIET AND CONTINUED WARM/HUMID. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 80S IN VALLEY SECTIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR LABOR DAY. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER WEATHER MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY... AND MOST OF FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. KSLK AND KMPV WILL HAVE PERIODS OF LIFR AND VLIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z DUE TO VISIBILITY AND FOG. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 418 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WINDS AT 4 AM HAD ALREADY REACHED 18 KTS AT COLCHESTER REEF. DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY 15-25 KNOTS...HELPING TO BUILD WAVES TO 2-4 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED. SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FUNNELING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH MARINE...TEAM BTV

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.