Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 161849
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
249 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Another round of valley rain and mountain snow tonight through
Sunday. Cooler temperatures are expected to begin next week as
we remain under an unsettled pattern that will feature periods
of showers.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...Vertically stacked low pressure
system will pass north of our forecast area tonight into Sunday.
Precipitation will spread across our forecast area, and mainly
expect a mix of rain and snow showers with the snow showers
mainly in the higher elevations. Total precipitation from
tonight through Sunday afternoon will be three tenths of an inch
or less, with some shadowing evident in the Champlain valley
with strong westerly flow. Minimum temperatures overnight will
dip into the lower 30s to around 40. Precipitation begins after
about 8 pm in the St Lawrence valley, then pushing eastward and
spreading across our whole forecast area by early Sunday
morning. Showers will continue into the day on Sunday as flow
becomes northwesterly and shortwave energy continues to cross
the area. Breezy conditions are expected. Maximum temperatures
will reach the lower 40s to around 50. Showers will come to an
end on Sunday night as we start to lose moisture. Minimum
temperatures on Sunday night will be cooler, dropping into the
mid 20s to lower 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 224 PM EDT Saturday...Longwave polar trough settles into
the region Monday/Monday night with scattered rain/snow shower
activity. Some nominal accumulations of several inches possible
in the higher terrain during this period, with valleys seeing
little accum. Highs trend cooler (mid 30s to lower 40s) with
overnight lows in the 20s to around 30 - though honestly this is
near seasonal mid-March norms.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 224 PM EDT Saturday...Active weather continues into
mid/late week as the polar longwave trough becomes established
across the region with seasonably cold temperatures and a few
additional chances of snow showers. Best shot of snow showers
occurs Wed/Wed night with additional shortwave energy. Some mix
with rain showers possible in the valley floors with additional
minor accumulations possible, mainly in elevated terrain where
ski resorts will likely benefit from a few additional inches. It
will continue to trend chillier w/daytime highs in the 30s to
around 40 Tue/Wed cooling into the 20s to lower 30s by
Thursday/Friday under modestly gusty west/northwest flow.
By next weekend we pull out of the colder regime, though with
some possible storminess during the transition period.
Deterministic solutions are showing no agreement on degree of
phasing and amplitude evolution of the longwave pattern. For
now, have broadbrushed 30/40 PoPs across the area with
moderation of temperatures back toward normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Through 18Z Sunday...Mainly VFR/MVFR conditions through around
00Z when the next precipitation comes through. MVFR/IFR
conditions will spread overnight tonight with a mix of rain and
higher elevation snow showers, degradation of flight categories
will mainly be from ceilings lowering. Some low level wind shear
possible in the early morning hours at EFK and SLK. PBG, RUT
and MSS will have showers come to an end Sunday morning, while
other sites will have to wait till the afternoon.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance
SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Neiles