Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 200552 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1252 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1226 AM EST SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AS OF THE 900 PM HOUR. SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR IN MUCH OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NC/NE VT AND EXPECT THIS SLOW CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT GRADUALLY ERODES LINGERING STRATUS AREA. AS A RESULT OF THE CLEARING SOME NORTHERN LOCALES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING OR HAVE REACHED FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SO THIS PREDICATED AN ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD IN THIS REGARD. LOOKING AT AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE NOTHING REALLY CAPTURING CURRENT TRENDS ALL THAT WELL...FAIRLY TYPICAL UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS. THUS LEANED TOWARD LATEST MET MOS GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD BY A FEW DEGREES WHICH AT LEAST TRENDS VALUES IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN SPOTS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY. SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA. IFR CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK OVERNIGHT THEN IMPROVING AFTER 10Z. MVFR TRENDING VFR AT MPV OVERNIGHT. AT REST OF SITES...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. SOME MID CLOUDS RETURN TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. 12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO

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