Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 261845 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 245 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Fair and seasonably warm weather will prevail across the region into Sunday as high pressure dominates the sensible weather pattern. The next chance for scattered showers will occur by later Sunday into Sunday evening as a weak front crosses the area. Behind this system a return to fair and dry weather is expected for early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 245 PM EDT Friday...A quiet 24-hour stretch of weather is expected across the area as surface high pressure across southern Canada combines with deep subtropical upper ridging over the southeastern states to provide broad-scale subsidence and mainly clear skies. Other than some patchy mist/fog across favored locales later tonight skies should be mainly clear through the period with no rain expected. Temperatures generally a blend of bias-corrected model output offering overnight lows in the 50s to near 60 and highs on Saturday from 78 to 85 or so under moderate humidity levels. Winds light.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 307 AM EDT Friday...Latest trends show system for Sunday arriving several hours earlier associated with fast westerly flow aloft. Otherwise...Saturday expect mostly sunny skies with comfortable temperatures and humidity values. I anticipate scattered fair weather cumulus clouds to develop over the terrain as temperatures climb into the mid 70s to lower 80s depending upon elevation. Light north/northwest winds will shift to the south/southwest by Saturday Night. On Sunday...first ribbon of enhanced 700 to 500mb moisture associated with weak mid level warm air advection will shift from southwest to northeast across our region. Expect maybe a few sprinkles...as moisture will have tough time reaching the ground...given dry profiles. Deeper moisture and better dynamics arrive after 18z...along with weak surface boundary in the flow aloft. This energy/moisture will produce additional scattered showers on Sunday afternoon/evening with maybe a few rumbles of thunder. Overall...instability is limited with CAPE values <500 J/kg and forcing is weak with energy getting sheared out in the fast westerly flow aloft. I will continue to mention chance pops with main focus over the mountains and after 18z Sunday. Progged 850mb temps warm to 16c ahead of boundary...but clouds may keep values in the upper 70s to mid 80s...very similar to yesterday (Thursday). && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 307 AM EDT Friday...Overall models are in good agreement with large scale pattern across our region for next week. This features a developing trof across the western and eastern conus with high amplified ridge in the middle. Temperatures will be above normal to start...but trend below normal by late next week...with even the 0C 850mb isotherm progged to make an appearance off both the latest 00z ECMWF/GFS. Some people are excited about the arrival of cooler weather and are looking forward to the upcoming winter months already. For Sunday Night into Monday will continue to mention chance pops with narrow ribbon of enhanced moisture and short wave energy diving across our region with surface boundary. A rumble or two of thunder is possible...especially northern NY around 00z. Otherwise...qpf will once again be light and generally <0.25 with this system. Surface high pres and weak cold air advection develops for Monday into Tuesday with general dry conditions and slightly above normal temps. The lack of a deep trof and limited cold air advection behind boundary...supports only minor changes in our thermal profiles for early next week. Toward the end of next week a series of short waves and associated cold front will help to carve out a deeper mid/upper level trof across the ne conus. This support a gradually cooling trend in the temps...with chances for scattered showers. The developing northwest upslope flow supports the highest pops over the mountains...especially Thursday into Friday. Progged temps start near 15c for Tuesday...but cool to 10c by Thursday and single digits by 12z Friday with brisk northwest winds. I will mention temps in the 80s Tuesday...70s by Thursday...and 60s by next Friday...with lows gradually cooling into the upper 30s to lower 50s depending upon elevation and vicinity to the warmer lake waters. && .AVIATION /19Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/... Through 18Z Saturday...VFR through the period with mainly scattered cumulus bases in the 035-045 AGL range through 00Z, then SKC. Patchy IFR/LIFR br/fg possible at KMPV/KRUT/KSLK in the 06-12Z time frame tonight. Mixed signals on potential br/fg occurrence given dry advection regime with MOS-based guidance most bullish. Confidence moderate on occurrence but given morning rainfall, at least some added low level moisture input will be present overnight with light winds aloft. Winds generally light west to northwesterly 5-10 kts through 00Z, then light and variable thereafter. Outlook 18Z Saturday through Wednesday... 18Z Saturday through Wednesday...mainly VFR through the period with high pressure. Two main threat periods for scattered showers and brief MVFR conditions - Sunday afternoon/evening, then again Tuesday afternoon/evening with weak trough passages. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...JMG

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