Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 050559 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 159 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING, THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MODERATING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 159 AM EDT THURSDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THOUGH DID OPT TO CHANGE PRECIPITATION CHARACTER TO DRIZZLE BASED ON LACK OF ANY REAL DYNAMICAL FORCING OVER THE AREA, BUT AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. FOR TODAY...AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DIGS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECT CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 8-12TS. EXPECT FAIRLY SIMILAR TEMPERATURES CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE +8C TO +11C RANGE. THAT PUTS THE FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH...OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP BEST DYNAMIC FORCING SOUTH OF THE REGION AS WELL AND THIS SHOULD KEEP BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT. HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THESE AREAS BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY THAT LOW WILL FINALLY GET CAUGHT IN THE FLOW AND PUSHED EASTWARD. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM OUR WEST...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS...BUT FEEL THAT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GENERALLY VFR AT KMSS/KSLK, MVFR AND KBTV/KRUT AND IFR AT KPBG/KMPV UNDER LIGHT WINDS. AFTER 12Z, NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DRY OUT SO THE TREND WILL SLOWLY BE TOWARDS VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE AFTER 21Z. ADDITIONALLY, WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ONLY ENOUGH TO MENTION VCSH AND MAINLY AT KRUT AND KMPV. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT: MAINLY VFR UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. CIGS. 00Z SAT - 06Z SUN: MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS. 06Z SUN - 06Z MON: MVFR SHOWERS LIKELY. CHANCE IFR. 06Z MON - 00Z TUE: VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...DEAL/LAHIFF SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...LAHIFF

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