Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 162309
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
709 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of valley rain and mountain snow tonight through
Sunday. Cooler temperatures are expected to begin next week as
we remain under an unsettled pattern that will feature periods
of showers.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...Vertically stacked low pressure
system will pass north of our forecast area tonight into Sunday.
Precipitation will spread across our forecast area, and mainly
expect a mix of rain and snow showers with the snow showers
mainly in the higher elevations. Total precipitation from
tonight through Sunday afternoon will be three tenths of an inch
or less, with some shadowing evident in the Champlain valley
with strong westerly flow. Minimum temperatures overnight will
dip into the lower 30s to around 40. Precipitation begins after
about 8 pm in the St Lawrence valley, then pushing eastward and
spreading across our whole forecast area by early Sunday
morning. Showers will continue into the day on Sunday as flow
becomes northwesterly and shortwave energy continues to cross
the area. Breezy conditions are expected. Maximum temperatures
will reach the lower 40s to around 50. Showers will come to an
end on Sunday night as we start to lose moisture. Minimum
temperatures on Sunday night will be cooler, dropping into the
mid 20s to lower 30s.
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.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 224 PM EDT Saturday...Longwave polar trough settles into
the region Monday/Monday night with scattered rain/snow shower
activity. Some nominal accumulations of several inches possible
in the higher terrain during this period, with valleys seeing
little accum. Highs trend cooler (mid 30s to lower 40s) with
overnight lows in the 20s to around 30 - though honestly this is
near seasonal mid-March norms.
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.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 224 PM EDT Saturday...Active weather continues into
mid/late week as the polar longwave trough becomes established
across the region with seasonably cold temperatures and a few
additional chances of snow showers. Best shot of snow showers
occurs Wed/Wed night with additional shortwave energy. Some mix
with rain showers possible in the valley floors with additional
minor accumulations possible, mainly in elevated terrain where
ski resorts will likely benefit from a few additional inches. It
will continue to trend chillier w/daytime highs in the 30s to
around 40 Tue/Wed cooling into the 20s to lower 30s by
Thursday/Friday under modestly gusty west/northwest flow.
By next weekend we pull out of the colder regime, though with
some possible storminess during the transition period.
Deterministic solutions are showing no agreement on degree of
phasing and amplitude evolution of the longwave pattern. For
now, have broadbrushed 30/40 PoPs across the area with
moderation of temperatures back toward normal.
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.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Through 00Z Monday...Currently VFR conditions prevail at all our
sites with light and variable winds. As sfc low pres tracks to
our north a cold front will swing across our taf sites tonight,
producing a period of mostly rain showers. A few heavier
embedded showers will have the potential to produce MVFR vis
while cigs trend toward MVFR after 06z for northern NY and
toward 09z for VT sites. A period of IFR is possible at SLK btwn
09z-14z on Sunday associated with upslope flow as winds shift to
the west and deepening moisture profiles. As winds shift to the
west/northwest at all sites by 12z Sunday, expect localized
gusts in the 15 to 25 knot range from 15z-21z Sunday, as mixing
profiles increase. Cigs should improve to VFR by 18z at all
sites and continue into the evening hours.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Likely SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Taber