Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 261850 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 250 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure slowly builds into the region today and Wednesday. Dry weather is expected along with a warming trend as temperatures by Wednesday will be well into the 80s with a few lower 90s expected. The pattern will change later Wednesday night through Friday as a broad trough of low pressure moves into the region and enhances the potential for precipitation. High temperatures will be at or slightly above normal on Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 153 PM EDT Tuesday...Steep low level lapse rates combined with low level moisture will keep cumulus clouds around for the rest of today into the evening hours. Cannot rule out an isolated light rain shower this afternoon. NW winds 5-10 kts, occasionally gusting 15-20 kts, continue on the northeast side of building low level/surface ridge. Temperatures will continue to rise into the upper 70s-mid 80s with a few spots reaching the upper 80s. Tonight: High pressure continues to build into the region for a continuation of dry weather. Any shallow cumulus over the higher terrain will dissipate around sunset and clear skies/light winds will take over. This could lead to some fog in the favored locations. Low temperatures will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 249 PM EDT Tuesday...Weak frontal boundary north of the international border early Wednesday evening will be the main focus for scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm development as it slowly sags southward through the North Country Wednesday night through Thursday night. Overall we`re looking at fairly weak forcing with the parent upper low well north of the area just east of James Bay, and any shortwave energy rounding the base of the trough being meager at best. That said, convective activity will be largely instability driven, meaning lower chances during the night, higher during the day/afternoon. In addition, any storms that do develop will be more the "garden variety" type and not severe with weak shear/CAPE profiles in place. Likely to see some brief heavy downpours though with any stronger cores that do develop as PWAT progs jump up to around 1.5". Lows both nights will be fairly close to normal though slightly above in the upper 50s to upper 60s Wednesday night ahead of the front, and mid 50s to lower 60s behind the front Thursday night. Highs Thursday will be right around normal in the low/mid 80s.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 249 PM EDT Tuesday...Still some uncertainty on the forecast going into the end of the week and weekend but feel global models are converging on a drier forecast with high pressure over central Ontario and the Great Lakes Thursday night slowly meandering over the Northeast through the weekend. Uncertainty in the forecast comes with a strong thermal boundary to our south coinciding with a fast westerly flow aloft with possible embedded shortwaves ejecting out of convective activity over the mid-west. Feeling is that outside of a few showers across southern Vermont on Friday, we should be mainly dry through the Sunday with the boundary remaining south and temps right around seasonal normals. As we move into the early part of next week, we`ll reintroduce some low chances for showers and thunderstorms as the aforementioned high drifts off the eastern seaboard with warmer and more humid weather returning on increasing southerly flow.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/... Through 18z Wednesday...VFR conditions with sct-bkn cumulus clouds will persist through this evening. IFR/LIFR fog development possible at KSLK and KMPV mainly between 07z-12z Wednesday morning as winds decouple and skies clear. After sunrise, fog will begin to erode and VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites with mainly clear skies and southerly winds of 5-10 kts. High and mid level clouds will encroach upon the North Country from the Northwest late in the period. Outlook 18z Wednesday through Sunday... 18z Wed - 00z Thu: Mainly VFR under high pressure. 00z Thu - 00z Fri: VFR with MVFR/IFR possible in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms 00z Fri - 12z Sun: Generally VFR, chance for MVFR in showers in the afternoon Friday and Saturday. 12z Sun onward: Chance for widespread showers. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...KGM

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