Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281440 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1040 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS VERMONT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1035 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPDATED FORECAST THIS MORNING TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. CURRENTLY SOME SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT...WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THAT IN THE ADIRONDACKS AHEAD OF ACTUAL COLD FRONT. STILL FEEL THAT SEVERE RISK FOR TODAY IS MARGINAL...THOUGH HAVE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. CURRENTLY NOTING SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES IN QUEBEC...BUT NONE CLOSER THAN THAT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY SCATTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 426 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME RAIN SHOWERS OVER EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH DRIER AIR IN THE FORM OF LOWER DEW POINTS ARRIVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM MODEL SHOWING SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BTV 4KM MODEL HAS THESE STORMS EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY BY 21Z TODAY. SPC HAS PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...NOT BUYING INTO THIS AS CLOUD COVER MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LIMIT AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 426 AM EDT THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. GFS MODEL CONTINUE TO BE FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL WITH THIS COLD FRONT. THUS...SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FORECASTS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. STILL ANTICIPATING A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND TIMING OF SFC FEATURE...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS ON SFC HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY TO CAT POPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...DEPENDING UPON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT WHEN FROPA OCCURS. AT THIS TIME...BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL NY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG...WHILE BEST 0 TO 6 KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ON MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70...BUT WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S COLDER VALLEYS ON MONDAY MORNING TO M/U 40S CHAMPLAIN/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. LOWS WARM BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE DACKS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF SEEING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT RUT/MPV/BTV. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR MPV/RUT WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTING. OTHERWISE...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT TOWARD SUNSET.PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK AND MAYBE RUTLAND...DEPENDING UPON MEASURED RAINFALL TODAY. OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK AND RUTLAND ON SATURDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH/NEILES SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

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