Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 221622 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1222 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 945 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS COLD FRONT IN PROGRESS OF CLEARING OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS OF 900 AM. STILL COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN LINGERING POST FRONTAL MOISTURE AS COLD THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES CONTINUE...BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCALES MAINLY DRY. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BLUSTERY TODAY AS READINGS HOLD STEADY IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGES WERE TO ADJUST SKY TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WHICH RAP 850 RH PROGS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING WELL. ALSO TWEAKED POPS DOWNWARD A TAD...ESP LARGER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT DAY. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S (8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE SOME PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS ERN VERMONT AT 1130Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY...VARIABLE CEILINGS WILL EXIST...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR ACROSS NRN NY...BUT PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS AT PBG/BTV WITH DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE ADIRONDACKS. ANTICIPATE THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCD MOST OF THE DAY. OVERALL...ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AREAWIDE...EXCEPT LOCALLY AT SLK WHERE CEILINGS LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPSLOPE EFFECTS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES TODAY...BUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV. WINDS GENERALLY WNW 10-14KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22 KTS WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CREATING SOME TURBULENCE BELOW 3 KFT AGL. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MARINE...
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A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS WILL CREATE WAVES FROM 2 TO 4 FEET...GREATEST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LAKE AND ALONG WESTWARD FACING SHORES. WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS MARINE...MUCCILLI

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