Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 241910 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 310 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Widespread snow, rain or mixed precipitation will sag south tonight while gradually lessening in coverage as today`s warm front is pushed southward by building high pressure to our north. Mainly dry weather will continue to build across the area on Saturday as the front continues to settle southward. The front will return north as a warm front on Sunday into Monday with a return of widespread rain, snow or mixed precipitation expected.
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As of 310 PM EDT Friday...The forecast remains on track for tonight as an east to west oriented warm front across our area trends stationary, then sags southward as a cold front in response central Canada high pressure tracking eastward. The drier more stable airmass should act to slowly shunt steadier light rains/snows/mixed precipitation southward over time with most areas trending mainly dry after midnight. Some light additional snow accumulations will be possible in favored areas, especially nc/ne VT this evening where thermal profiles will remain cooler. Again, used latest RAP output for mid level thermal profiles which is capturing the current 850-700 mb warm nose quite nicely and would suggest precipitation north of a Massena-Plattsburgh-St. Johnsbury line should largely remain light snow. Have issued a Special Weather Statement highlighting additional light snow potential into the evening hours. For surface temperatures I leaned toward hourly LAMP output which guided overnight minimums. Admittedly these values have some uncertainty as despite the abundance of clouds the synoptic flow will trend northerly after midnight and begin to usher in a slightly colder low level airmass into northern counties on the southern edge of aforementioned surface high. For now I`ve offered values bottoming out in the upper 20s to around 30 north, and in the lower to perhaps mid 30s south. On Saturday the cooler/drier airmass continues to slowly seep southward our east-west oriented surface front sinks into central NY into southern New England. Could still see some lingering light rains/snows across our far southern counties in the morning as the surface front stalls to our immediate south and weak ripples of moisture track west-east along the boundary. All and all conditions should be trending drier even here however with our central/northern counties likely seeing partial to perhaps some full sun by afternoon. Temperatures should generally range from 35 to 40 north and 40 to 45 east/south. South edge of high pressure then continues across the area Saturday night with our former front beginning to lift back slowly north toward daybreak Sunday. Prior idea of clear to partly cloudy skies for most of the night still appears reasonable with highest coverage south. Lows should range from 10 to 20 north, and mid teens to lower 20s south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 237 PM EDT Friday....Sunday and Sunday night look messy! Hate that we`re still dealing with mixed precipitation for the end of March. Sunday we will have warm air advection and some light rain as warm front lifts North across our forecast area. Temperatures will dip early during the overnight Sunday night, then continue to warm through the overnight with general warm air advection continuing. Pretty decent slug of precipitation moves across our forecast area overnight and believe that we`ll mainly have rain with some freezing rain east of the Green mountains where the cold air tends to get stuck the longest. Have leaned on the warmest guidance that I could find for Sunday night, the BTV4 and blended with ConsShort. Then I used the diurnal trend from ConsShort for temps and a GFS/NAM blend for weather grids from mixed precipitation top down. Amount of QPF that`s expected along with cold temps East of the Greens, can`t rule out possibility of winter headlines at some point for Sunday night into Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 237 PM EDT Friday...Rain will continue through the first part of the day on Monday as well as warm air advection which should shut down icing east of the greens by later in the morning. Monday afternoon and overnight the precipitation will become more orographically enhanced. Another upper level shortwave pushes across our area on Tuesday bringing more chances for precipitation, mainly rain. Precipitation continues into Tuesday night, mixing with some snow, before shutting down Wednesday morning. Will finally have a bit of a drying trend for Wednesday through Thursday night, but more chances for precipitation towards the end of the week. Still a very difficult p-type forecast for the beginning of the week with rain-snow line remaining very close if not right across our forecast area. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Saturday...IFR/MVFR conditions expected through 12Z as widespread snow and/or mixed precipitation associated with a stalling warm front traverse the area. Steadier precipitation will tend to settle south after 05Z as front sags southward with most terminals trending precipitation-free after 12Z Saturday. Winds variable 5 to 15 knots south to southeasterly (easterly at KMSS), trending northerly after midnight. After 12Z Saturday cigs should begin to transition to VFR from north to south as Canadian high pressure begins to nose southward into the area. Outlook 18Z Saturday through Tuesday... 18Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday...trending mainly VFR /precipitation-free as Canadian high pressure noses briefly southward into the area. 12Z Sunday through 12Z Tuesday...widespread mixed precipitation and/or rain return to the region. 12Z Tuesday onward...light and spotty mixed precipitation transitions toward a period of steadier rains. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...JMG is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.