Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271932 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 332 PM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the North Country today will bring a good deal of sunshine...dry weather...and temperatures a few degrees above seasonal normals. The dry weather continues tonight...but the high pressure system will be moving east and this will allow moisture to begin increasing ahead of an upper level trough of low pressure. As this feature moves into the region on Sunday expect increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms...especially Sunday afternoon and night. High temperatures will be at or slightly above seasonal normals on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 201 PM EDT Saturday...Current forecast in good shape, so no changes have been made. Previous discussion from 701 AM EDT Saturday...Cannot seem to shake the mid level clouds across the area this morning...but areal coverage is slowly decreasing and this trend will continue. The clouds have had an impact on fog with areal coverage being a bit limited. The fog should burn off completely by mid-morning. Otherwise high temperatures will be a few degrees above normal today with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Winds will be light and variable. For tonight...the high moves off to the east and we begin to see more south to southwest flow in the lower levels. Clouds will be on the increase...especially mid and high level clouds. However...forcing is weak across the area and thus going with a dry forecast as it appears Sunday will have the better chances for precipitation. Lows will generally be in the mid 50s to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...Short term period picks up with the surface front on the St. Lawrence Valley doorstep and southerly flow ahead of it. Plenty of low level moisture streaming northward ahead of the front, with precipitable water over 1.5 inch until the front passes. Residual daytime heating, low level forcing along the front, and weak 500 mb dynamic support in the form of a sheared vort center. Kept chance to low likely pops going 00 to late evening, then tapers off. As the vort center passes the 500mb flow flattens, with a secondary and better defined shortwave trough moving across the area Monday in northwest flow. Despite the second trough on Monday precip chances decrease as northwest low level flow brings in much drier air. Slight chance to chance pops continue over higher terrain from 00-18z Monday, then dry thereafter. Clearing late Monday into Monday night with 1000-500 mb RH dropping below 30%. Fog formation possible Monday night under surface and upper ridging and clear skies for good radiational cooling, but didn`t inlude in forecast this far out. For temps, Sunday night still relatively warm with residual moisture limiting lows into the 60s. Highs Monday a little cooler under lower heights and 850 mb temps cooling to around 11C in support of max temps in the 70s. By Monday surface boundary is located just east of our cwa...with any lingering showers quickly ending as much drier air advects into the region. Progged pw values fall below 1.0 with moderate cold air advection on breezy northwest winds. 850mb temps cool 4 to 6 degrees by 12z monday with highs mainly in the 70s anticipated. will mention low chc pops in the morning for eastern areas.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 312 PM EDT Saturday...On Tuesday...surface high quickly shifts into the Gulf of Maine...as return flow develops ahead of approaching boundary. Northwest upper flow over the region, with 500mb shortwave trough moving through central Canada towards forecast area trough passes well north of region Tuesday night/Wednesday, dragging a surface front behind. Return of moisture, weak instability and frontal lift good for chc showers in the north Tuesday night and areawide Wednesday. Strong low level cold air advection follows boundary on Thursday into Friday with 850mb temps falling between 2 and 4c. This low level thermal profiles supports temps dropping back to below normal by Thursday with highs mainly in the 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 40s to mid 50s. Expect mainly terrain driven showers on Thursday into Friday associated with upslope flow and some mid level moisture. Will mention schc/low chc pops for the mountains of NY into northern VT...based on position of closed 5h trof and available moisture.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/... Through 18Z Sunday...mainly VFR through the period. Expecting cumulus clouds over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains to dissipate by 00Z Sunday, due to the loss of daytime surface heating. Expecting a gradual increse in high and mid level clouds overnight as a weak disturbance approaches from the Great Lakes. There could be some light scattered rain showers over northern New york between 15Z-18Z Sunday. Surface winds expected to be mainly less than 10 knots through the period. Outlook 18Z Sunday through Thursday... 18Z Sunday through Thursday...mainly VFR through the period with high pressure. Two main threat periods for scattered showers and brief MVFR conditions - Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening, then again Tuesday afternoon/Wednesday with weak trough passages. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/WGH SHORT TERM...Hanson LONG TERM...Hanson AVIATION...WGH

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