Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 282333 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 733 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 718 PM EDT FRIDAY...DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE. EXPECT DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND JUST A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS DRIFTING IN FROM THE WEST (MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT). COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR FORMATION OF SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LIGHTEST. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...EXCEPT FOR MID- UPR 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE NORMALLY COOLER PORTIONS OF VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 327 PM EDT FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON SATURDAY AS WE RESIDE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...CONTINUING THE WARMING TREND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS 11-13C...WHICH SUPPORT SURFACE MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS DISTURBANCE...SO DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHEN BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT BE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VERY LIMITED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE REGION...SO HAVE GONE WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CLOUDS MOST PREVALENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MORE SUNSHINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH 12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A WARM SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNING TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THROUGH MID-WEEK THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LARGELY BE DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT RESULTING IN ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS RUN ANYWHERE FROM 15-22C RESPECTIVELY SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE, BUT A FEW MODELS HAVE HINTED OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY SO RAINFALL SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED BUT HAVE HIGHLIGHTED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AT KSLK AND KMPV BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WHICH WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z...THEN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 00Z SUN - 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON - 00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF

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