Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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545 FXUS61 KBTV 171906 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 306 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will bring dry weather through the remainder of the week. After a chilly start this morning, a warming trend will commence as winds switch into the south to southwest this afternoon. Highs in the mid to upper 50s today will moderate into the 60s to low 70s during the next 5 to 7 days, which will be well-above average for mid-October. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 920 AM EDT Tuesday...Quick update to the forecast to bring in slightly higher cloud coverage across our northwestern border areas through the noontime hour per satellite trends. Really just mid level stuff above 5000 ft. Rest of forecast remains unchanged. Have a great day! Prior discussion... Synoptically quiescent conditions with clear skies and sfc anticyclone bisecting the North Country early this morning. Light winds in place and will see areas of frost early this morning. A chilly start with sunrise temps generally 25-35F, warmest near Lake Champlain. Did see the first freeze of the season at BTV, with 32F recorded around 538am. Sfc ridge slides east of VT by 18Z inducing a S-SW return flow. Winds increase to 5-10mph across central/ern VT, 10-15 mph in the Champlain Valley, and locally 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the St. Lawrence Valley with stronger p-gradient and valley channeled flow. Will see temps moderate a bit with just passing thin mid-upr level clouds. Afternoon highs expected to range from the low 50s east of the Green Mtns, to the upr 50s in the Champlain Valley, and generally 55-60F across nrn NY. PoPs NIL. Quiet conditions persist tonight thru Wednesday. Continued S-SW gradient flow will mean PBL remains mixed in most locations and temperatures won`t be as cool. Lows tonight generally mid 40s for the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys, and mid-upr 30s across the nrn Adirondacks and ern VT. Highs on Wednesday will moderate into the mid 60s in most valley locations. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 306 PM EDT Tuesday...Area of surface high pressure persists over the southeastern USA as weakening low over northern Quebec attempts to drag a cold front near the international border Thursday. With dry air in place over the North Country - PWATS half inch or less - expect any moisture from front to result in increased clouds, but no precipitation. Behind the front and associated mid-upper level trough, ridging at the surface and aloft build into the northeast. Ridging will persist through the weekend. Temperatures will be above normal throughout the period, starting in the 60s to near 70 on Thursday and cooler on Friday behind the cold front, then rebounding back into the 60s to low 70s for the weekend.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 306 PM EDT Tuesday...Sunday will be warm ahead of cold front associated with longwave trough which will dig southward from Ontario. This system will provide multiple chances for showers into the middle of next week. PWATs look to increase to around 1 inch, possibly more in strong SW flow. Wind channelling up the valleys could result in strong gusty winds Monday into Tuesday.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday...No precipitation and mainly VFR through the period under mainly scattered mid to high clouds in the 100-250 AGL range. Exception at KSLK later tonight (mainly 06-12Z Wed) where southwesterly flow will allow occasionally BKN MVFR cigs in the 015-025 AGL range. Winds mainly south to southwesterly 6 to 14 and gusty into the 18 to 28 kt range at KBTV/KSLK/KMSS through 02Z, trending light southerly 4 to 8 kts thereafter. A brief period of 30 to 40 kt southwesterly LLWS around 020 AGL will also be possible at KMSS/KSLK/KRUT/KMPV in the 02-08Z time frame. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .EQUIPMENT... KTYX radar at Fort Drum, NY will be down for scheduled maintenance today, Tuesday, October 17 through a good portion of Wednesday, October 18 as technicians repaint the radome. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos/JMG SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...JMG EQUIPMENT...JMG

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