Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 221928 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 328 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND SPREADS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1051 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY, COOL AND A BIT DAMP ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND THE GOING FORECAST HAS THAT COVERED QUITE WELL. RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NY, ALL TRAVELLING WESTWARD AS THE EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENS. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM (WHICH FOR TODAY IS TO THE EAST!) RADAR SHOWS A LARGER BLOB OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN MAINE AND INTO CENTRAL NH. SOME OF THIS RAIN LOOKS TO BE OCCASIONALLY MODERATE. ANTICIPATE THAT TO PUSH INTO EASTERN VERMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO CONTINUING THE BASICALLY 100% POPS LOOKS GOOD. LESSER CHANCES OF RAIN THE FARTHER WEST ONE GOSE. ALL IN ALL MINIMAL TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 453 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TONIGHT...A LARGER SWATH OF RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BE STEADIER IN NATURE RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME PERIOD WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WINDS GO FROM EAST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. THUS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE WHEN WE SEE THE MOST ACCUMULATING RAINFALL. STILL LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH UPSLOPE REGIONS GETTING AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.50 INCHES. RIVER LEVELS REMAIN LOW AND GIVEN THE LONGER DURATION OF THE RAINFALL TO REACH THESE HIGHER LEVELS...FLOODING ON THE LARGER RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...RISES WILL BE NOTICEABLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS. THUS THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. EVENTUALLY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... STABLE PERSISTENT CONDITIONS ALL MORNING...MAINLY MVFR/IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VFR VSBYS WILL EVENTUALLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS RAIN BAND ADVECTS NW INTO FA. IFR-LIFR CIGS AND VFR-MVFR-IFR VSBYS TNGT AND THU. NNE WINDS WILL IN THE 8-15 KNOT RANGE THRU THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 18Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. 12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME. SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY HAS ALL BUT COME TO AND END WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT WHERE LIGHT SHOWERS EXISTED. EVENTUALLY WE WILL SEE THE DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOP AND RAIN SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE STEADIEST RAINS WILL BE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THEN PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF ON FRIDAY. STILL LOOKING AT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS WITH UP TO 2.5 INCHES ALONG THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LARGER RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND THE LONGER DURATION OF RAINFALL TO GET TO THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SUGGESTS THAT FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SHARP RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS...ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...NASH SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...HANSON AVIATION...SLW HYDROLOGY...EVENSON

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