Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 172338 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 638 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 624 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS OF EARLY EVENING. LATEST KCXX VWP DATA NOW SHOWING WINDS STARTING TO BODILY TREND NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT AS SYNOPTIC FLOW RESPONDS TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR EAST. EXPECTING SFC FLOW TO RESPOND SHORTLY...AFTER WHICH BROAD-SCALE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SOUTHWARD AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT RAINS/SNOWS TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA...ESP NORTH LATER TONIGHT. NO REAL COLD AIR AROUND HOWEVER SO DESPITE WIND SHIFT NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR MOST SPOTS OVERNIGHT. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING. PRIOR DISCUSSION... AS EXPECTED, MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY IS SEEING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW NORTHWEST OF THE CWA FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING IS TRANSFERRING ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THIS NEW LOW STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND BEGINS TO TRACK NORTH TOWARD THE BAY OF FUNDY PRECIPITATION WILL FILL BACK IN AND TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS THERMAL PROFILES COOL ON DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. INITIALLY, PRECIP WILL BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BUT BECOME MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND WITH FROUDE NUMBERS OFF OUR LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF INDICATING SUB- CRITICAL TO BLOCKED FLOW. OVERALL QPF ISN`T TOO TREMENDOUS THOUGH SO THINKING A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR, WITH UP TO 4" ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW. BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. MIN TEMPS WILL SEE THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN S-SW FLOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE SW FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING, BUT KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT AT SOME POINT CHRISTMAS EVE, AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO OUR NORTHWEST. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOURS. MOIST NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM 06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. GREATEST CHANCES AT BTV FROM 07-15Z...MSS 06-10Z...AND RUT 07-11Z. PBG WILL BE LEAST AFFECTED WITH ONLY MINOR REDUCTIONS...IF ANY AT ALL...EXPECTED. SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AFTER 15Z ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT. OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 00Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. 12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...JMG/LAHIFF SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...MUCCILLI

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