Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 141500 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will exist across the North Country today with no precipitation expected. However...a southwest flow aloft will spread clouds into the region throughout the day and keep high temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Eventually deeper moisture will move into the region tonight and especially on Tuesday as a trough of low pressure drops down from Canada. These features will increase the chances for precipitation later tonight and especially on Tuesday. The trough of low pressure moves east of the region on Wednesday and a drier northwest flow pattern will develop for dry weather and cooler temperatures with highs in the 70s. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 1057 AM EDT Monday...No major changes to the forecast. Only updates were to boost the temp grids and end up raising max temps by a degree or two to account for the the warm air advection. Similarly with the high pressure building in I tweaked dew points down a resulting in minimum relative humidities in the 37-42% range for this afternoon. Otherwise it should be a wonderful start to the work week. Previous discussion...Fog was rather limited early this morning and mainly a few spots in eastern Vermont are holding onto some and this should burn off by about 900 am. Have tweaked the forecast to account for this trend. Otherwise going forecast in good shape with increasing mid and high level clouds today and no precipitation. Highs still look like they will reach the mid 70s to lower 80s. Previous Discussion... Fog has been slow to develop early this morning. High level clouds are moving across the region...the airmass is drier...and based on forecast soundings there may be just enough wind off the deck to preclude fog from developing in the favored areas. Will keep in the forecast for now...but will be quick to pull it if does not materialize around sunrise. Otherwise looking at weak high pressure to keep the forecast dry today with west to southwest flow aloft bringing mid and high level moisture to the area. Warmer 925 millibar temperatures than yesterday...but with the mid and high level clouds...highs will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday versus a few degrees warmer. Tonight and Tuesday...deeper moisture works into the region during the period as flow aloft remains from the southwest. Could see some showers move in during the overnight hours and then exit to the east by mid-morning on Tuesday. Pronounced upper trough over eastern Canada will move down during the day and this should enhance the potential for some showers and possibly a few thunderstorms... especially over the northern half of the area closer to the better dynamic support. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 309 AM EDT Monday...Upper trough moves into the Canadian Maritimes and this will put our area in northwest flow aloft. Any precipitation should come to an end Tuesday night with drier air moving in for Wednesday. Looking at a cold air advection pattern too and with cooler 925/850 millibar temperatures...look for highs only in the 70s on Wednesday with somewhat gusty northwest winds. Quiet weather returns on Wednesday as high pressure returns. With the southerly flow Tuesday, temps will warm to the upper 70s to low 80s and then as the upper level trough clears, light cold air advection will begin. Expect lows overnight will fall into the mid 50s with low to mid 70s expected Wednesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 309 AM EDT Monday...Medium and Long range guidance is all over the place for late week and next weekend, thus confidence is low for the later periods. General agreement of Surface High across area Wed ngt as cold front is south of fa. Then the differences begin with GFS/Canadian and WPC agreeing on more amplitude ridge to delay any precipitation til Thu ngt whereas ECMWF quickly dampens flow for pcpn arriving by midday Thu. Will go with majority here. The exit strategy of pcpn is in question as all the models mentioned above have totally different solutions. Canadian/GFS keeps shower threat on Sat but for total different reasons. In fact, by 00z Sun, ECMWF and Canadian are more in line with differences in strength of shortwave trof moving through Sat ngt them some rising heights and minor ridging for Sunday. Again, greatest confidence of shra threat Thu Ngt and part of Fri. Thereafter, minimal CHC pops through the period. Seasonable temps although a tad on the chilly side Thu morning with some 30s in coldest valleys possible. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12Z Tuesday...Overall looking at VFR conditions through the period. Not much in the way of fog developed early this morning and any fog out there is patchy and should burn off by 900 am. Otherwise looking at only mid and high level clouds throughout the day. Winds will generally be light and variable with an eventual change to the south and southwest later this morning...but at speeds under 10 knots. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/Deal SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...Evenson

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