Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 061741 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 141 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 131 PM EDT MONDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND 06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW 1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM TROFINESS AGAIN. SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI- CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ERODING AFTER SUNSET LEAVING JUST FEW-SCT CIRRUS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER 06Z, SKY COVER INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS UNDER THE LOW WHICH WILL MAKE A RUN AT KSLK/KMSS TOWARDS SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO 040-060 WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AREA-WIDE AFTER 15Z. VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5KTS GO CALM OVERNIGHT, AND INCREASE AFTER 12Z FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-15KTS. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z TUE - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. 18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK. && .EQUIPMENT... KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...LAHIFF EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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