Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 021916 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 316 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY 00Z THIS EVENING MOST OF RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF VERMONT WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. MAY HAVE SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH A FEW COLDER SPOTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND SOME WARMER SPOTS REACHING THE LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN VERMONT ZONES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 405 AM EDT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DRY...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA AND BEGIN TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 405 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE THE UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE AROUND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OUR AREA WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THIS SYSTEM AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUS HAVE KEPT THAT IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST. THE LOW MAY FINALLY GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THIS COULD VERY WELL BE OUR ONLY STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR A BETTER PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST AN OVERALL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH EVEN SOME LOCATIONS HAVING A SHOT AT 70 IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR INTERVALS FROM LIGHT RAIN AND MIST. LOW CEILINGS WILL OBSCURE MTNS. SOME DROPS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL VERY SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER THE RAIN MOVES OUT. THERE IS AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT HAVE LEFT THIS OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. CURRENTLY NORTHEASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z TUE - WED: BECOMING VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY. FRI - SAT: VFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...NEILES

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