Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 241111 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 711 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper low pressure will cross the area today into tonight with widespread rainfall and cool temperatures before exiting east on Tuesday. High pressure brings a brief stretch of fair weather on Wednesday before a weak cold front brings a renewed threat of showers and storms on Thursday. Fair weather then returns for Friday into next weekend with temperatures near seasonal late summer norms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 310 AM EDT Monday...A soggy, damp and dreary 24-36 hours remains on tap for our area today into Tuesday morning as upper low pressure and an accompanying 500 mb longwave trough slowly pivot through the area. Good PVA and diffluence aloft will aid dynamical support for upward motion and rainfall through the period, some of which could be heavy at times across our northern New York counties today into early this evening. Instability remains rather marginal and have kept with prior thinking confining any lower thunder threat in these western counties only into this evening where modestly steep mid-level lapse rates exist. Given the expected lack of intense rainfall rates and seasonable 3/6 hr flash flood headwater guidance values, the threat of flash flooding still appears low at this point, despite a marginal risk area being maintained in our area by WPC. That said, model-blended QPF totals shown for this event will range from 0.50 to 1 inch across VT and from 1 to 2 inches in northern NY through Tuesday morning with localized totals to 2.5 inches in portions of the SLV where some modest watershed rises will be possible. Temperatures will trend quite cool by late July standards with readings only topping out in the upper 50s to mid 60s today, coolest across northern NY. Winds mainly light east to southeasterly, though a brief window of southeasterly gusts to perhaps 25-35 mph will exist along the western slopes of the central and southern Greens this morning through mid-afternoon or so. By tonight showers will remain quite abundant in coverage, though wane in overall intensity as the system continues to pivot slowly east. Patchy br/fog also a good bet just about anywhere as temperatures hold in the 50s. Winds light. On Tuesday widespread morning showers gradually move east and/or fade away as longwave trough exits east and building high pressure advances east from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Plenty of clouds should be the rule most of the day, though some partial sunshine will be possible from the Champlain Valley west by later in the afternoon. Temperatures remain on the cool side in the 60s, possibly touching the 70F mark in the SLV where partial sun may arrive a bit earlier than other areas. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 333 AM EDT Monday...Dry weather will persist Tuesday night and Wednesday with upper level and surface ridging over the area. Decreasing cloud cover Tuesday night will set us up for some fog formation, locally dense, from 06-12z. Surface high crests over the region on Wednesday, with warm southwesterly flow developing. Cooler than normal temperatures Tuesday night, mainly 50s with some 40s in the Dacks. Temps rebound nicely on Wednesday with near seasonal normals expected, upper 70s to around 80. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 333 AM EDT Monday...All of the weather in the long term will be in the first few periods, mainly Wednesday night and Thursday. A cold front will push across the region with showers and perhaps thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. This will depend a lot on the timing of the front which will become more clear as we get closer to Thursday. Have mentioned likely pops for Thursday, because this looks like the time period when the fropa will happen. Showers should be ending during the first part of Thursday night, though Euro does depict a slower system. Right now the Friday through Sunday timeframe looks quiet with large ridge of surface high pressure over the region. Temperatures will be near normal through the week. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12Z Tuesday...Deteriorating conditions expected across the area today into tonight as upper low pressure brings widespread rainfall to the region. Thunder threat rather low and confined to northern New York counties. Lack of expected coverage warrants omission from NY terminal forecasts at this point. Generally looking at VFR trending MVFR at all terminals in the 09-18Z time frame as rain arrives from southwest to northeast. Exception at KSLK where patchy IFR stratus will linger a few hours this morning before trending MVFR. Brief IFR visibilities possible in heavier showers, especially in northern NY. Showers trend a bit lighter after 00Z Tuesday, though scattered coverage remains across the area as cigs lower into the 005-015 AGL range (IFR/MVFR) with widespread 3-5sm br and localized areas below 2sm. Winds east to southeasterly through the mainly in the 5 to 15 knot range, though occasionally gusty to 30 kts at KRUT in the 12-00Z time frame, trending light after 00Z. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Patchy morning FG. Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy dense FG. Wednesday: VFR. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR/MVFR. Slight Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...JMG is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.