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275
FXUS61 KBTV 090649
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
249 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure just north of the region will provide mainly quiet
weather through tonight though some isolated showers are possible.
More numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely on Thursday,
while more limited shower chances are expected for Friday and
especially Saturday followed by another round of organized showers
and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will largely be
seasonably warm to hot through the period.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 249 AM EDT Wednesday...Seasonable weather is expected across
the North Country and Vermont today as weak high pressure centered
north of the region remains largely in control. After overnight low
clouds and fog scour out by midday, some high clouds will filter in,
so only partial sunshine is expected. Some weak shortwave energy
ejecting northeastward from a trough over the midwest may provide
enough upper level support to develop some isolated terrain driven
showers, but the overall probability for precipitation today is low.
Temps will be about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday pushing in the
upper 70s to low 80s, and with dewpoints holding in the low/mid 60s
it will feel slightly muggy like a normal summer day. Some
additional isolated showers remain possible tonight as well with
little overall airmass change as the trough approaches the region.
Skies should remain partly to mostly cloudy offering a warmer and
muggier night with lows ranging through the 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 249 AM EDT Wednesday...The forecast remains on track for some
showers and thunderstorms to develop Thursday as the aforementioned
trough glances the region as it lifts northeast through Quebec.
Soundings continue to show sufficient CAPE upwards of 1000 J/kg and
30kts of 0-6km bulk shear developing from noon through the
afternoon, but overall models show limited upper level height falls
and a fairly weak cold pool aloft supporting more of the garden
variety of thunderstorms and a low threat of severe storms. Areal
coverage of the convection remains very much in question with little
consensus amongst the CAMs, but the SPC has placed our region in a
Marginal Risk for severe storms so it`s something to keep an eye on.
The most likely threat right now would be localized pockets of heavy
rain as low level wind fields remain weak with PWATS upwards of 1.5"
and warm cloud depths around 10kft. Current 1-hour flash flood
guidance is as low as 1.5" in some areas, but overall around 2" for
the region, and with a dry day today that will likely rise a little
bit for Thursday.

Any convection on Thursday will wane into Thursday night with the
loss of diurnal heating with mainly dry conditions returning for
Friday as an upper level ridge approaches. A warming trends
continues into Friday with widespread low/mid 80s expected.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 249 AM EDT Wednesday...Generally a low-impact but unsettled
weather pattern in the long- term is expected. Above average heat
from a short ridge Saturday into Sunday will help to drive heat
index values towards heat advisory criteria. Probabilities of
exceeding heat advisory conditions of 95 or higher will peak on
Sunday with the approach of a large scale frontal passage. Shower
and thunderstorm chances in the long term will be most likely Sunday
afternoon with only a marginal change in air mass behind the
boundary. As a result, seasonable heat and humidity looks to persist
into early next week.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Through 06Z Wednesday...Low clouds and fog have set in across
majority of the area terminals. Sites that will see prevailing fog
with IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities will be at SLK/EFK where a
lack of low clouds should allow for predominate fog. MPV will see
periodic IFR visibilities through the beginning of the TAF period,
but as low clouds dissipate in the next few hours, clearing should
give way to fog beyond 08Z. Low clouds at MSS/PBG/RUT have led to
bouncing MVFR 5SM visibilities from BR which should persist through
10Z, when more prevailing MVFR is expected through 12Z. While
confidence is lower in mist affecting BTV, satellite imagery
suggests the possibility of some late low clouds or fog intrusion
into the Champlain Valley by 10Z, with further detail in the NAM3K
model soundings. Only utilized a tempo group given the lower
confidence. By 12Z, any low clouds and fog should dissipate with
calm winds persisting through the remainder of the TAF period. Model
guidance for tomorrow night suggests a return of fog to the
climatologically favored terminals.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
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&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig