-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 061730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1230 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT...AS A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND COLD
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1226 PM EST FRIDAY...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION TAPERED OFF VERY QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION EARLIER TODAY...AND LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ONLY SHOWING A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...
MAINLY SOUTH. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OR EVEN FALL A BIT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EST FRIDAY...DISTURBANCE RIDES UP THE COLD
FRONT...BRINGING SNOW TO THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW MAY EXTEND UP TO
NRN VT AND NRN FOOT HILLS OF THE ADKS...BEFORE EXITING BY
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO FOUR INCHES
PSBL IN CENTRAL AND SRN VT...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST.

OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ON
SATURDAY...IT WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. CONTINUED DRY
AND COLD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.

NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID TEENS TO L20S FOR THE HIGH TRRN AND U20S-M30S IN THE
VALLEYS. OVERNGT MIN TEMPS WILL TREND MUCH COLDER ESP SATURDAY
NGT. FRIDAY NGT MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS
IN THE TRRN AND UPPER TEENS TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS. SATURDAY NGT
SEEING TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EST FRIDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE SHOWN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
HOLD OFF ON BRINGING LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE A FLUFFY LIGHT SNOW AS AIR OVER
THE REGION WILL BE PRETTY DRY INITIALLY. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING...SO EXPECTING A RATHER MESSY COMMUTE
MONDAY MORNING. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY...SO ANY SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN
OR SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN...BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR WORKS BACK INTO
THE REGION.

MODELS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
THERE STILL WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AS MODELS STILL SHOWING
SOME MOISTURE COMING OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP AT 12Z FRIDAY SHOWING
PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.
EXPECTING PRECIPITATION OVER VERMONT TO COME TO AN END BY 16Z FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY AS
PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 16Z FRIDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT AFTER 04Z SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
MOST OF VERMONT AND A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN
04Z-07Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...AREAS OF IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
     MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...BECOMING VFR UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN DEVELOPING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.

TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS/KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF