Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 251436 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1036 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION SATRUDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1023 AM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND THE LATE MORNING UPDATE FEATURES NOTHING MORE THAN NUDGING THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS/SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST OBS. MOST INTERESTING FEATURE IS THE SMOKE LAYER THAT IS ALOFT (I`M GUESSING SOMEWHERE AROUND 15,000FT) THAT IS RESULTING IN THE HAZY LOOK TO THE SKIES. OTHERWISE, 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM ALBANY AND MANAWAKI SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE. SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE BORDER AS EVIDENCED BY THE CLOUDS ON SATELLITE. 850MB/925MB BOTH INDICATE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AS SEEN VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT IS PASSING OVERHEAD THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL. ALSO GIVEN THE DRY PROFILE DON`T EXPECT MUCH BEYOND SHALLOW CUMULUS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. FOUND IT A LITTLE INTERESTING THAT ALL 3 FLAVORS OF OUR LOCAL WRF MESOSCALE MODEL AT 4KM, 6KM AND 12KM RESOLUTION ALL INDICATED ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THOSE MODELS OVER ESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACTUALLY AROUND. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 358 AM EDT FRIDAY...CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP READINGS A TAD MILDER THAN THIS MORNING...MAINLY 50S. PTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND FAIRLY ROBUST MID LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. A BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE/QPF SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS NRN NY LATER IN THE DAY WITH OUR VT COUNTIES REMAINING LARGELY DRY. HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER...77 TO 83. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY TRAVERSES THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND MORE SOLID CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN TIMING OF PRIMARY FEATURE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND THE PROBABILITY FOR A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING AROUND THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ANY STORMS SHOULD BE GARDEN VARIETY /NON-SEVERE. SOLID 45-65% POPS WILL BE CARRIED DURING THESE PERIODS ACCORDINGLY...BUT NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS WITH AT LEAST SOME GOOD STRETCHES DRY WEATHER INTERSPERSED AMONG THE SHOWERS. LOWS MILDER WITH CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENT MOISTURE RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT (55 TO 65)...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 75 TO 80 OR SO ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 336 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE OFFERED BY TODAY`S 00Z/25TH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUITE ON THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CONUS REGIME WELL SPECIFIED WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A LARGE HEAT RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SUBTLE TIMING AND ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY ALSO CONTINUE PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER FEEL THAT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING BECOMING INCREASINGLY ABSENT INTO THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK THAT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BECOME MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN. THE MOST ACTIVE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH WEAK SFC LOW FOCUSING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUPERBLEND GIVES LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY WHICH SEEMED REASONABLE. DESPITE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE MECHANISM FOR ASCENT - PROGGED THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETER SPACE DOESN`T LOOK AS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY LIMITED BY WHAT SHOULD BE LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM SUNDAY. WEAK SFC LOW MOVES INTO MAINE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. MID-LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PIVOT SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME WED-THU WITH POPS THIS PERIOD (CHANCE TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VT) MORE OR LESS TO COVER WHAT SHOULD BE SHOWERS/STORMS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL CYCLE AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80/LOWS 50S TO LOW 60S). COMBINATION OF COOLING THERMAL PROFILES - 850MB TEMPS AROUND +9 TO +11C - AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO TREND BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MORNING VLIFR FOG HAS BURNED OFF AT MPV AND WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TODAY WITH CEILINGS SKC-SCT060. SFC HIGH TO PASS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST 6-10 KTS OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT MSS. MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE IN THE EVENING. THINK ANY FOG/MIST WOULD BE AT MPV WHERE WINDS MAY STAY LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK LIKELY TO LIMIT FOG/MIST ELSEWHERE. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 12Z SAT - 12Z SUN...MOSTLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN SCT SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. 12Z SUN - 18Z MON...VFR. 18Z MON - 00Z WED...ACTIVE PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THOUGH VFR MOST OF THE TIME...THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS. 00Z WED ONWARD...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...NASH SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...LOCONTO AVIATION...LOCONTO

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