-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 251436
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1036 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE REGION SATRUDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE
AND THE LATE MORNING UPDATE FEATURES NOTHING MORE THAN NUDGING THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS/SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST OBS.

MOST INTERESTING FEATURE IS THE SMOKE LAYER THAT IS ALOFT (I`M
GUESSING SOMEWHERE AROUND 15,000FT) THAT IS RESULTING IN THE HAZY
LOOK TO THE SKIES.

OTHERWISE, 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM ALBANY AND MANAWAKI SHOW A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE. SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE
BORDER AS EVIDENCED BY THE CLOUDS ON SATELLITE. 850MB/925MB BOTH
INDICATE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80F THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AS SEEN VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT IS
PASSING OVERHEAD THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL. ALSO GIVEN THE DRY PROFILE
DON`T EXPECT MUCH BEYOND SHALLOW CUMULUS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. FOUND IT A LITTLE INTERESTING THAT ALL 3
FLAVORS OF OUR LOCAL WRF MESOSCALE MODEL AT 4KM, 6KM AND 12KM
RESOLUTION ALL INDICATED ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS BUT THIS
APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THOSE MODELS OVER ESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACTUALLY AROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT FRIDAY...CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP READINGS A
TAD MILDER THAN THIS MORNING...MAINLY 50S.

PTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND FAIRLY ROBUST MID LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. A
BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE/QPF SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ACROSS NRN NY LATER IN THE DAY WITH OUR VT COUNTIES
REMAINING LARGELY DRY. HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER...77 TO 83.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY TRAVERSES THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND MORE SOLID CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN TIMING OF PRIMARY FEATURE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
AND THE PROBABILITY FOR A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
AROUND THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ANY STORMS SHOULD BE GARDEN VARIETY
/NON-SEVERE. SOLID 45-65% POPS WILL BE CARRIED DURING THESE
PERIODS ACCORDINGLY...BUT NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS
WITH AT LEAST SOME GOOD STRETCHES DRY WEATHER INTERSPERSED AMONG
THE SHOWERS. LOWS MILDER WITH CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENT MOISTURE
RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT (55 TO 65)...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 75 TO 80
OR SO ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE OFFERED BY TODAY`S
00Z/25TH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUITE ON THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE
PATTERN. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CONUS REGIME WELL SPECIFIED WITH
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A LARGE HEAT
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SUBTLE
TIMING AND ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY ALSO
CONTINUE PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE
PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER FEEL
THAT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING BECOMING INCREASINGLY ABSENT INTO THE
MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK THAT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
BECOME MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN.

THE MOST ACTIVE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TITLED AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH WEAK SFC LOW
FOCUSING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUPERBLEND GIVES
LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY WHICH SEEMED
REASONABLE. DESPITE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE MECHANISM FOR ASCENT -
PROGGED THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETER SPACE DOESN`T LOOK AS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY LIMITED
BY WHAT SHOULD BE LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM SUNDAY. WEAK SFC
LOW MOVES INTO MAINE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS
FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. MID-LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PIVOT
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME WED-THU WITH POPS THIS PERIOD (CHANCE
TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VT) MORE OR LESS TO
COVER WHAT SHOULD BE SHOWERS/STORMS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL CYCLE AND
COOL TEMPS ALOFT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80/LOWS 50S TO LOW 60S). COMBINATION OF COOLING
THERMAL PROFILES - 850MB TEMPS AROUND +9 TO +11C - AND AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO TREND BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MORNING VLIFR FOG HAS BURNED OFF AT MPV AND
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TODAY WITH CEILINGS SKC-SCT060.
SFC HIGH TO PASS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST 6-10 KTS OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT MSS. MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY
LATE IN THE EVENING. THINK ANY FOG/MIST WOULD BE AT MPV WHERE
WINDS MAY STAY LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK LIKELY TO LIMIT FOG/MIST ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SAT - 12Z SUN...MOSTLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

12Z SUN - 18Z MON...VFR.

18Z MON - 00Z WED...ACTIVE PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THOUGH
VFR MOST OF THE TIME...THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY
IN PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z WED ONWARD...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO