Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 052336 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 736 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 643 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH IT WILL APPEAR A LITTLE HAZY ALOFT DUE SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK THROUGH 70S INTO 60S THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG LATER TONIGHT IN THE RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. GOING FORECAST HAS IT ALL COVERED. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. EXPECTING PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE USUAL CLIMO FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 402 PM EDT SUNDAY...A SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES NORTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. ON TUESDAY...DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1400 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOWER TO -2 TO -4 BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KNOTS REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN CANADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.O INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. HAVE HELD OFF ON PUTTING IN ANY ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE BECOMES HIGHER WITH THIS POSSIBILITY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 247 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SURFACE COLD FRONT TIMING IS NOW ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEPICTED BY YESTERDAYS ECMWF/CMC AND NOW SUPPORTED BY TODAYS 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ENSUING THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND WHILE THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AS WELL THOUGH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BE DROPPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER SO HAVE CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR. MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8 KTS AT RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE AT PBG). OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 00Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX. 12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE. 00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA. 00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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