-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
261
FXUS61 KBTV 202359
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
759 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will continue to dominate into the beginning of
next week while Hurricane Jose remains southeast of New England.
Expect overall quiet and dry conditions with fog in the
morning. Temperatures will be well above seasonal average
temperatures throughout the period with highs in the upper 70s
to mid 80s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 734 PM EDT Wednesday...No significant changes for the
evening update. Going forecast is in good shape. Previous
discussion follows.

High pressure will keep any significant effects from Hurricane
Jose at bay to the southeast of the area. A tricky fog and
stratus forecast tonight as northerly winds bring a little drier
air into the region and could be enough to prevent fog in some
spots but could be some stratus with enough flow in the boundary
layer. Otherwise with mostly clear skies and rather high dew
points have continued the idea of patchy fog and stratus once
again, especially in the protected valleys. Overnight lows in
the 50`s with the Champlain Valley remaining in the low 60s.

Thursday will be more of the same overall with few clouds and
dry quiet conditions overall. 925 mb temps are just about the
same as today, perhaps a degree cooler 17-18 deg C, but really
no change from today with highs will again be in the upper 70s
with a few valley locations again reaching 80.

Thursday night looks to be a little cooler with clear skies and
calm winds again leading to patchy dense fog. Lows ranging from
the lower 40s in the cold spots to mid 50s near Lake Champlain.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 354 PM EDT Wednesday...The latest set of guidance shows
nothing different for what to expect for Friday. It will not
feel like the first day of fall. High pressure at the surface
and aloft will keep us high and dry. Jose will remain well to
our south. With 925mb temperatures around 17C, we should easily
reach the mid-upper 70s in most locations. A light
north/northeast flow will advect in some drier low level air, so
dewpoints will be lower than we`ve seen recently. That will set
the stage for an excellent radiational cooling night. Lows
Friday night will bottom out in the 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 354 PM EDT Wednesday...Who is ready for some record
breaking heat this weekend? If you raised your hand, then you`ll
be happy. For those that want cool fall weather, sorry. 12z
guidance offering nothing different that what we`ve been seeing
for days for Saturday to Monday. Basically strong high pressure
with increasing warmth each day. The high will also keep
whatever Jose slowly diminishes to well to our south. So no
rain, and hardly any clouds. 925mb temperatures will be around
21C on Saturday, then near 23C on Sunday and Monday. This
indicates temperatures will be well into the 80s. It`s possible
that Sunday and Monday we see a few locations flirting with 90F.
Again, I did adjust the forecast highs up a couple of degrees
from the guidance blend to align with the warmest of the
guidance. For most of the locations we have long term records
for, the projected highs will be at or above current records on
each of those days. See the bottom of this discussion product
for the Climate section detailing some of the records.

The situation gets a little more unclear for Tuesday and
Wednesday. GFS is showing what the ECMWF showed yesterday (but
not today) that the moisture of Jose`s remnants drift north into
our region for Tuesday. The latest ECWMF run keeps us dry, so I
trended PoPs down from what we had and what the guidance blend
gave. By that time we`ll also be watching Maria wander northward
off the east coast, on a track pretty similar to what Jose
took. Still looks as Maria will not come this far north as the
ridge over us is mighty strong. However per the 12z GFS and
ECMWF runs, they indicate that Maria does try to buck into it,
while at the same time an upper trough and associated cold front
try to break it down from the west. Net result in both models
is that a more moist southeast flow advects moisture into the
region on Wednesday. At this point there is so much uncertainty
with regard to Maria`s evolution and it`s interaction with the
large scale flow that from a forecasting standpoint it`s best to
just stick with a generic model blend that far out -- which
will indicate increasing clouds and chances for showers. Still
looks well above normal for temperatures even into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Through 00Z Friday...VFR through 04z with northerly winds
around 10 kts diminishing around sunset as high pressure noses
down from Canada and blends with the circulation from Jose
offshore. Looks like another round of fog again tonight after
04Z and dissipating by 14z. Most confident at KSLK and KMPV but
could see some fog or low stratus vicinity any of the other
sites including BTV.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. Patchy FG.
Friday: VFR. Patchy FG.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures and year recorded for the period Sat Sep 23
to Mon Sep 25

Day    Burlington     Massena      Montpelier
9/23   87 / 1895      84 / 1964    83 / 1965
9/24   84 / 1961      87 / 2010    83 / 1961
9/25   85 / 1891      90 / 2007    85 / 2007

For Burlington, here are the latest in the year dates for reaching
specific temperature thresholds

90F or higher:  9/16/1939
88F or higher:  9/22/1965
87F or higher:  9/23/1895
86F or higher: 9/23/1895 (was 87F that day)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sisson
NEAR TERM...Neiles/Sisson
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Neiles/Sisson
CLIMATE...