Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 030746 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 346 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM QUEBEC AND ONTARIO TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT BEFORE EXITING TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ON FRIDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY...BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD VERY WARM...MODERATELY HUMID...AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1255 AM EDT THURSDAY...FEW SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUE NORTH OF THE BORDER. ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH LATEST UPDATE...JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER NORTH. SOME AREAS OF FOG...BUT VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT IT FROM BEING AS DENSE AS PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS. MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 331 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NW-N WIND SHIFT AND MID-LEVEL VORT GRADUALLY PUSH SWD ACROSS VT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS THURSDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL LIKELY SEE AN EXPANSION IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE REACHES S-CENTRAL VT...AND ULTIMATELY EXITS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF 30-40 POPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT DURING THE MID-DAY PERIOD THURSDAY BEFORE FRONT EXITS. BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH FOR THE AFTN HRS...ALONG WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTN. STRONG DROP IN PW VALUES LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE UPR 50S NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED HIGHS WEDNESDAY...WITH THURSDAY SEEING 80-85F MOST SECTIONS. STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT...DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NIL POPS. VERY QUIET PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME NOCTURNAL FOG 06-12Z BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. DAYLIGHT HRS FRIDAY SHOULD BE QUITE PLEASANT...WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S. LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT A FEW MID-UPR 40S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS OF VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND WITHIN THE VALLEYS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...APEX OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEGINS TO DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT TO THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO TURN MORE ZONAL GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS RUNNING A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90. LOWS WILL BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL, BUT STILL ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST TRENDS THOUGH ARE FOR A VERY THIN LINE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH LITTLE HEIGHT FALLS SO THINKING THIS REALLY WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH. BEHIND THE FRONT, SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEAST THOUGH WITH LESS AMPLITUDE SO TEMPS DO DROP OF A LITTLE GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH, BUT ONLY BY 5-10 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. LOOKING OUT FURTHER IN THE FORECAST, IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A MORE POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. CERTAINLY WAY TOO FAR OUT TO ZERO IN ON THE EXACT DETAILS, BUT A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS LOOKS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME MVFR/IFR BR AND SOME ISOLATED IFR CIGS AROUND UNDER A BROADER OVERCAST CIRRUS DECK. AFTER 14Z, SURFACE FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH WILL BRING SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSRA TO THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KSLK TO KMPV THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY REMAIN VFR. BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBY ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY RAIN. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MAINLY VFR. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY LIKELY AT MPV/SLK, AND POSSIBLE AT MSS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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