Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 041221 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 721 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 TODAY WITH AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN BRIEFLY IN PLACE TODAY. WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ARE FORESEEN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 716 AM EST WEDNESDAY...PACIFIC ORIGIN AIRSTREAM MAKING A RARE APPEARANCE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH DEEP-LAYER W-WSWLY FLOW IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY EVENING/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND SOUTH OF THE NEXT THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE 20S AND LOWER 30S DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON GUSTY S-SW SURFACE WINDS (LOCALLY UP TO 35 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER MORE WESTERLY LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. P-GRADIENT GRADUALLY SUBSIDES...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH THRU MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. IR IMAGERY INDICATES ABUNDANT MID-UPPER CLOUDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NEWD ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LESSEN THROUGH THE DAY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH CLEARING/SUNSHINE GIVEN UPPER CLOUD CANOPY. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES...WITH HIGHS MAINLY MID/UPR 30S FOR MOST SECTIONS. STILL A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLD FLURRY OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AREAWIDE THROUGH MID MORNING. WITH WLY FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES FOR FLURRIES/SPRINKLES VCNTY OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/ERN/NERN VT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHIFT NWLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA AND RETURN OF SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NRN NY...AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS ACROSS VERMONT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON THURSDAY AND GENERALLY 20-25F FOR FRIDAY. STALLED FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MAY YIELD SOME MID-UPR CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL SEE A S-SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN HRS. IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...COULD SEE SOME SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH MID-LATE FRIDAY AFTN. ALL IN ALL, A DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD SHORT-TERM PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY, MAINLY LATE SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, CONTRIBUTING TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF EACH UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS ZONAL PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES, AS MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE L20S-L30S AND WARM INTO THE U20S TO NEAR 40 IN THE VALLEYS ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL EXPERIENCE THE SAME TREND WITH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS, WARMING TO GENERAL TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 20S. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS WITH MONDAY/S DISTURBANCE AND AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY MID-MORNING, ONLY EXCEPTION BEING KSLK WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS REMAINING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD, SO EXPECT KRUT TO IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 19Z. REST OF THE FORECAST EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING AT ALL BUT KMSS AND KSLK WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AT 5-10KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-25KTS POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. AN INCREASE OF VFR LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AS WEAKENING UPP TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. NO PRECIP EXPECTED. OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE SOUTH. 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM

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