Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 160638 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 138 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper trough and surface low passing northwest of the region will bring scattered snow showers to the North Country late tonight into Saturday morning along with a light accumulation. A brief ridge of high pressure will bring a quiet end to the weekend on Sunday, before the pattern becomes active again next week with several chances for precipitation, especially on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/... As of 1026 PM EST Friday...Forecast in good shape as we are now seeing more of the influences of the shortwave trough moving into the region with areal coverage of snow showers starting to increase and lake effect over the Saint Lawrence Valley coming to an end. Thus no changes needed at this time. Previous Discussion... The forecast remains on track for a light accumulating snow across the region late tonight through Saturday morning as an upper trough and weak surface low tracking through the Great Lakes this afternoon swing just northwest and over the region. Low/mid level southwest flow ahead of the trough has aided in the development of a lake effect snow band in the lee of Lake Ontario northward up the St. Lawrence River this afternoon with surface obs and area webcams showing on/off snow showers at Ogdensburg and Potsdam over the past few hours. Expect this activity to continue until the trough shifts the flow west/southwest after midnight where at that point snow showers will become more widely scattered across the northern Adirondacks and then points eastward towards sunrise, especially over the northwest upslope favored areas. By mid-morning Saturday activity should be diminishing with area snow totals generally a dusting to 2" with perhaps 3" in the lake effect. Saturday evening and overnight a brief ridge of high pressure builds into the region with clearing skies and light winds aiding in another good night of radiational cooling. Temps will once again fall below normal levels with lows early Sunday morning in the single digits above and below zero. && .SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 409 PM EST Friday...Sunday will start off mostly sunny and cold with a weak ridge building along the eastern seaboard. Daytime highs will top out in the mid to upper teens over higher elevations and reach the low 20s in valley locations. Mid to upper-level moisture will increase throughout the day, so expect mostly sunny skies in the morning to become party to mostly cloudy by the evening. Sunday night, clouds will continue to increase from west to east as a warm front lifts through the area from the southwest. As winds gain an increasingly southerly component, a slightly warmer air mass will be advected in. Low temperatures will be moderated by the warmer air moving in and the increased cloud cover overnight. Nevertheless, will still see fairly chilly lows in the upper single digits to mid teens across the area as the bulk of the warmest air won`t move in until late Monday morning. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 409 PM EST Friday....The extended forecast will continue to feature an active weather pattern as a series of disturbances quickly move through the area amid strengthening upper-level flow. Monday will be considerably warmer than Sunday, with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s expected throughout the forecast area. Increasing isentropic ascent will support light snow showers across northern New York and Vermont Monday as the warm front pushes through. Moisture will be fairly limited however, especially in the low-levels, and snow accumulations in most areas should stay under an inch from Sunday night through Monday evening. Northern New York will see a little more snow than Vermont as moisture from the lake feeds into the system. Temperatures will continue to warm Tuesday as warmer air advects in under southwesterly flow. An approaching shortwave will bring the next focus for precipitation Tuesday evening/Tuesday night. At this time, it`s looking like enough warm air will be in place to support fairly widespread rain out this system. The exception to this will be higher elevations, which could cling on to some snow or a rain/snow mix Tuesday night. A cold front moving down from Canada will bring a return of the colder more seasonal temperatures by mid week, with highs in the 20s to 30s expected Wednesday and Thursday. The chance for snow showers will persist through Friday as weak waves move through the upper-level flow. Next weekend looks to feature more active weather, however models have yet to come into any sort of agreement on the evolution of the next system. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 06Z Sunday...Generally looking at VFR and MVFR conditions with a brief period of IFR in snow showers. As a trough of low pressure moves across the area a more persistent MVFR ceilings will exist everywhere with possible IFR conditions at KSLK/KMSS...especially between 06z and 12z due to snow showers. After 12Z expect conditions to begin improving back towards VFR across PBG and Vermont sites. At MSS/SLK there will be some lower level RH which is anticipated to cause low MVFR to possible IFR generally from 11z-18z but dry air will clear any low ceilings by 18-21z. Winds will generally be light south/southwest and turn west/northwest tomorrow afternoon at 5-10 knots with gusts to 15 knots between 18-00z at MPV and SLK. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SN. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHSN. Tuesday: MVFR and IFR. Likely SHRA, Likely SHSN. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Evenson/Lahiff SHORT TERM...RSD LONG TERM...RSD AVIATION...Deal

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