Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 060846 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 346 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cloudy skies this morning with some breaks in the clouds possible this afternoon. Next weather system arrives early Wednesday Morning and brings another round of light accumulating snow during the morning commute.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 330 AM EST Tuesday...Expecting dry weather across the North Country for today. Lots of clouds in place this morning, but may see some breaks in the clouds later this afternoon with some drier air and weak ridging over the area. Temperatures today will be in the mid 30s to around 40. Tonight we will have our next system approaching from the Southwest. This is another warm front with some decent shortwave energy. It should stay cold enough across our area to mainly just see snow with this feature. Overnight minimum temperatures will be around the mid 20s to around 30. Light snow will move into our forecast area from the Southwest during the second half of the overnight hours. Have mainly high chance to low likely pops and have also gone with mention of light snow. This feature will weaken over time as it tracks Northeastward. Best shortwave energy will exit off the Mid Atlantic coast. Expect just minor snow accumulations with this event, generally just 1-2 inches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 220 PM EST Monday...By Tuesday night into Wednesday another weak warm thermal advection episode is progged to advance northeast into the region while weakening over time as primary energy bundle exits the mid-Atlantic seaboard. The idea of a thickening and lowering overcast with light snows arriving southwest to northeast after midnight Tuesday still appears reasonable at this point, though some minor timing details do exist among this morning`s deterministic guidance. Light snows will then slowly taper to scattered rain and snow shower activity through the day on Wednesday as lower boundary layer warms above freezing in most valley locales. Similar to this morning`s event, minor snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches will be possible with the highest totals generally in elevated terrain. Temperatures will remain fairly uniform during this period with overnight lows steady in the upper 20s/lower 30s, and corresponding highs on Wednesday from 35 to 42. By Wednesday night the mean background flow remains deep southwesterly with plenty of mid-level moisture keeping skies mostly cloudy as a whole. Some minor lake effect response and associated snow showers may tend to form to the northeast of Lake Ontario over time, but boundary layer thermal progs quite marginal for anything heavy. Elsewhere just some scattered flurries here and there, mainly across the north. Low temperatures in the 20s to around 30 look reasonable.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 220 PM EST Monday...looking at this morning`s medium range guidance the models remain on board showing a gradual cooldown from Thursday into Saturday of next weekend as our first true modified continental polar airmass pushes into the area. Some important caveats lie beneath the bed so to speak, not the least of which is the fact that the mean flow aloft will be predominantly west to southwest through much of the period and quite moist. Thus no true push of arctic air will occur and given the abundant clouds overnight lows won`t be all that chilly by December standards despite the fact the readings as a whole will trend colder. This flow also proves a tad problematic with precipitation chances with transition to the colder airmass coming in several discrete frontal/trough passages. Overall theme will be for lake effect snow to generally blossom across the Lake Ontario snowbelts on Thursday/Thursday night with activity becoming more pronounced across the northern portions of VT as well over time as moisture feed deepens and aforementioned troughing swings into the area. Some light accumulating snows still appear reasonable in this period with slightly fluffier/higher totals possible in the snowbelts. Clouds continue to hang tough on Friday as we gradually enter the colder airmass and shsn/flurries wane over time, though at least some partial clearing is expected by Friday night into Saturday with high pressure at the surface building across the eastern seaboard. Temperatures will be on the cool side, but not excessively so with highs by next Saturday in the upper teens to mid 20s and overnight lows generally from 5 to 15 above. By next Sunday into Monday our next system is progged to swing into the region as low pressure across the northern Great Lakes drives additional warm advective precipitation into our area. These latter periods are of lower confidence with distinct differences in timing and thermal profiles. For now have leaned toward a blended output suggesting additional chances for light snows, though if some of the deterministic guidance like the ECMWF are correct, boundary layer temperatures may warm enough by next Monday for mixed rain/snow shower activity or all rain.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
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Through 06Z Tuesday...Generally looking at VFR and MVFR conditions through 15z with just some scattered light snow showers. There may be some brief periods of IFR conditions. After 15z...VFR conditions are expected as areal coverage of the clouds decreases. The clouds will begin to return to the area from southwest to northeast. However...ceilings will generally be above 10000 feet. Winds will generally be under 10 knots through the period. Outlook 06z Tuesday through Saturday... Vfr with some lingering mvfr cigs at slk/mpv on Tuesday...before another warm front produces another round of widespread light snow across our region on Weds. Similar to Monday`s event thinking a period of ifr/lifr likely between 12z-18z Weds across our taf sites with vis below 2sm and cigs between 500 feet and 2000 feet. An arctic boundary will produce more scattered snow showers and potential snow squalls on Thursday into Friday with brief periods of ifr conditions possible. Improving conditions with mvfr valleys and ifr/mvfr in scattered snow showers persist on Saturday.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Evenson/Taber

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