Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 011804 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 204 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...LABOR DAY...BRINGING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1023 AM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE AS OF 1000 AM TO INTRODUCE A LOWER/ISOLD CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG OUR INTL BORDER AREAS FROM CLINTON COUNTY, NY EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS TAIL END VORTICITY RIBBON SKIRTS ACROSS THIS AREA. CASE IN POINT A BRIEF SHOWER AT KEFK IN THE PAST HOUR. MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AND THE DAY IN GENERAL SHOULD BE DRY HOWEVER AS NARROW SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT 500 MB MOVES INTO THE AREA. BLENDED 18Z 925 MB TEMPS SUPPORTING CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS FROM 75 TO 80 IN THE MTNS...AND 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS ALONG WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... PRIOR DISCUSSION... COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NEAR SHERBROOKE QUEBEC AT 1040Z WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EWD ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED FORCING HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE AT THIS POINT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TODAY. SOME BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE OVERCAST...AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE LEADING TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. VERY HUMID AIR MASS DID LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND THAT FOG WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE BY 12-1230Z. THE UPPER LOW ISN/T ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE. THUS...THE RELATIVELY HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S AREA WIDE WILL REMAIN. 700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED AND EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +15C TO +16C...WILL FEEL LIKE MID-SUMMER CONDITIONS FOR THIS LABOR DAY. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER NAM-MOS GUIDANCE WITH ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S FOR MOST SECTIONS. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH WEAK P-GRADIENT IN PLACE...GENERALLY S-SW 5-8 MPH. FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING EASTWARD PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO SERN ONTARIO AFTER 06Z. SHOULD BE GENERALLY TRANQUIL FOR OUR AREA...ALBEIT MUGGY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S. SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPING S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHELTERED SPOTS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CALM...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS EAST OF THE GREENS. INCREASING MID-UPR CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NRN NY INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BTV-4KM AND BTV-12KM WRF RUNS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK CHAMPLAIN VLY WWD...AND WILL INCLUDE 20-30 POPS TO COVER THIS PROSPECT FOR THE PRE-DAWN HRS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOW-MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS (UPR 60S DEW POINTS). 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C BY 00Z GFS AND NAM...THOUGH MODELS NOW SHOW A BIT MORE MID- UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS MAY HOLD BACK INSTABILITY A BIT...THOUGH WE SHOULD STILL SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (WARMEST ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN AND CT RIVER VALLEYS). INSTABILITY IS A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY 500-1000 J/KG PER GFS/NAM BETWEEN 18-21Z TUESDAY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STILL LOOKS MODERATELY STRONG...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS EXPECTED. GIVEN STRONG FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG APPROACHING FRONT...ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ACTIVITY STARTING IN NRN NY BETWEEN 16-18Z BEFORE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS VT 18-00Z. NOT SURE ABOUT SEVERE THREAT GIVEN MARGINAL CAPE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY AROUND 6C/KM. THAT SAID...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PW VALUES 1.80 TO 2.00". COLD FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH VT 00-03Z WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY WIND SHIFT. WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS THRU MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN VT BEFORE ACTIVITY EXITS TO THE EAST. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THUNDER THREAT SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 00-01Z. GRADIENT WINDS AND MODEST CAA LIKELY LIMIT FOG FORMATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD SET UP A NICE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. VARIABLE MORNING CLOUDINESS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE 2-M DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AS WELL...GENERALLY MID-UPR 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 203 PM EDT MONDAY...FA REMAINS IN SIMILAR PATTERN WITH BEING ON THE NRN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE WITH OCCASIONAL NRN STREAM SYSTEMS DAMPENING RIDGE TEMPORAILY WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA THEN A RETURN TO DRY AND ABV SEASONABLE TEMPS. ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SLIGHTLY WITH SFC RIDGE IN CONTROL THU AND SLIDING SE ON FRIDAY. PRIMARILY DRY WITH ABV SEAONABLE TEMPS IN THE U70S-L/M80S.. LATE FRI/FRIDAY NGT/SATURDAY...NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASE SHRA/TSRA THREAT LATE ACRS ST LWRNC VLY. MAIN PUSH FOR SHRA WILL BE FRI NGT AS SFC FRNT SLIDES ACRS FA AND LINGERING INTO SAT AS FLOW IS PARALLEL TO FRONT WITH HINT OF SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ALG BOUNDARY THUS CHC LINGERING SHRA...ESP VT EASTWARD. ANOTHER NRN STREAM UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS FA ON SUN BUT LIMITED MOISTURE...MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND NORMAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RETURNING TO KMPV AND KSLK AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND SCT TSRA WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF TIL END OF PERIOD IN NY AND AFT 18Z MON IN VT. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW

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