Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 261632 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1232 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION INTO CANADA...ALLOWING FOR VERY WARM AIR TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1222 PM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST WITH LATEST UPDATE. WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 22C THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING FORECASTED VALLEY HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 432 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY BUT WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF GREATER THAN 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THURSDAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z THURSDAY...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY...SOME COULD BE STRONG. FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND RIBBON OF MOISTURE...BUT WINDOW OF RAIN/STORMS WILL ONLY BE 3 TO 5 HOURS. STILL PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS...WHICH IS FASTER WITH FROPA...COMPARED TO THE EURO WHICH SHOWS THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT 12Z SUNDAY. IF FROPA IS LATE SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING...PER GFS SOLUTION DURING MAX HEATING...SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS NEAR 20C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A BELT OF MID LVL WINDS APPROACH WITH TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SO BASED ON FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS TO LOW LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...HAVE NOTED PWS SURGE NEAR 1.5" AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY AFTN...BUT NOSE OF 85H JET IS LIFTING NORTH OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH CORE OF STRONGEST 25H WINDS. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON POSITION OF BOUNDARY FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS SHOWING THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...THE EURO SHOWS THE BOUNDARY PUSHING WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA...WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT COOL AND DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL TREND DRY ATTM...BUT LATER ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY...WHEN BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHERN VT TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF OUR TAF SITES BY 14Z THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED BY THIS AFTN. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEAK SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH MAINLY MID LVL CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 2 TO 6 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDS BTWN 16Z AND 22Z WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS...WITH LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR TAF SITES LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY MIDDAY. HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

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