Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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598 FXUS61 KBTV 072031 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 331 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1211 PM EST SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND A FEW FLURRIES. HAVE UPDATED TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS WHICH SUPPORT NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES AND NORTH WINDS AT 4 TO 8 MPH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 20S NORTHERN SECTIONS TO NEAR 40F AT VSF. ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT GRIDS. FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO CAPTURE LATEST SURFACE TRENDS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK/SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY TERRAIN DRIVEN DOWN THE VALLEYS WITH A FEW FLURRIES LIKELY ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND COOL AIR ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH WARMEST VALUES NEAR VSF WITH SOME SUN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S...ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS THAT BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SOME LIGHT SNOW AND OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 16Z. AFTER THAT EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBS AND THE SAME FOR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 352 AM EST SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP MONDAY. A SURFACE FRONT AND SOME ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE BEST MOISTURE WITH THAT WILL ALSO STAY TO OUR NORTH. FLURRIES AND OR LIGHT SNOW CAN`T BE RULED OUT HOWEVER AS WE WILL SEE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND STAYING IN THE MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS. ALL IN ALL A VERY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. && .SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS ON MONDAY...WITH A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM MOVING NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODEL AGAIN DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN HEAD IT OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N 70W). TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND RESULT IN MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ZERO TO 10 BELOW. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND SOME NORTHERN AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CORE OF COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS DEPARTS...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND THE EXPECTATION OF SOME SNOW COVER IN MOST AREAS...EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 15 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS AREA TODAY. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDY SKIES WITH CIGS VFR/MVFR. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SOUTH INCLUDING RUT. CIGS WILL LIFT A BIT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH MOST SITES BECOMING VFR. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT VSBYS MOSTLY UNRESTRICTED. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT MSS/PBG/BTV...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT REST OF SITES. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW. 12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHSN.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS

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