Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281743 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 143 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Developing coastal low pressure over southern New England will produce occasional rain and snow across most of Vermont today with scattered precipitation over northern New York. Additional wet snow accumulation of an inch or so is possible below 2000 feet. The precipitation will taper off this afternoon with mostly cloudy skies and cool temperatures prevailing. Our next weather system arrives on Saturday with breezy conditions and mainly rain showers as temperatures climb to near normal levels. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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As of 143 PM EDT Friday...Surface low in the Gulf of Maine has moved just enough east to help develop northerly flow over the area and starting to see the bulk of the precipitation shift east now. So areal coverage will continue to diminish as the afternoon wears on across eastern Vermont and more locations now getting warm enough to see more light rain versus light snow. Overall forecast has this idea and no significant changes needed at this time. Previous Discussion... Tonight...depth of moisture continues to slowly decrease with winds becoming light terrain driven. Some areas of br/fog are possible given the lighter winds and saturated low levels...especially during the evening hours...before winds increase again ahead of our next system. Have mention some chance pops toward morning with thermal profiles supporting mostly rain showers...except near the summits. Temps mainly in the 30s to near 40 overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 336 AM EDT Friday...Little overall change in the forecast from previous versions as we head into the weekend with the main feature being weak low pressure passing north of the Canadian border on Saturday. Latest models continue to indicate abundant low/mid level moisture with this system, but synoptic forcing is rather weak so while we continue to highlight likely PoPs for rain showers(mainly north), QPF will be light with temps pushing well above seasonal normals into the mid/upper 40s east to mid 50s west. By nightfall, the deepest low level moisture begins to shift east as the low tracks off into the Canadian maritimes and thus precipitation will gradually taper off by Sunday morning. Sunday`s forecast has become a little more tricky though as high pressure begins to build over the Great Lake region, but aloft weak shortwave energy looks to intensify and dig out a trough over southern Ontario. Models are showing some light QPF possible along a washed out boundary draped across our central/southern zones from Saturdays low, but I`m hesitant to go with more than chance pops with surface high pressure trying to build in. Temps will be tricky as well depending on where the boundary sets up, but thinking across central/northern areas highs will be slightly below seasonal normals in the mid/upper 40s, with upper 40s to possibly lower 50s south. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 336 AM EDT Friday...Aforementioned high pressure over the Great Lakes Sunday shifts east across the northeast for Sunday night and Monday offering a dry and seasonally cool end to the weekend and start of the work week. Thereafter, this mornings runs of the GFS/CMC/ECMWF are in a little disagreement with our next potential system developing out of northern plains Monday afternoon. ECMWF and CMC stayed consistent to previous run tracks taking the low north of Lake Superior Monday night to the tip of James Bay by Tuesday night, while the GFS has trended a little further south. All push a warm front through the area Tuesday with the North Country firmly in the warm sector through Wednesday night, but the more southerly track of the GFS would offer higher precipitation chances. Have stuck close to consistency from our previous forecast highlighting some low chance PoPs with highs Tuesday/Wednesday pushing back into the 50s area- wide as mean 925mb temps jump to +5-10C. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
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Through 18z Saturday...Widespread MVFR and IFR ceilings will exist through much of the period as surface low pressure moves east but another low pressure system quickly moves in to keep plenty of cloud cover around. Any precipitation for the rest of this afternoon will be in the VFR category and then again after 12z on Saturday with the next low pressure system moving in. Winds will generally be from the northwest at speeds under 15 knots. Of note will be stronger winds aloft moving into northern New York after 12z on Saturday for low level wind shear to develop. This will likely spread into Vermont after 18z Saturday. Outlook 18z Saturday through Wednesday...Low level wind shear will exist over the area through at least 00z Sunday. Otherwise plenty of clouds Saturday afternoon through Sunday with VFR/MVFR ceilings and the same will hold true for visibilities due to showers. VFR conditions expected for the start of next week.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Evenson/Taber SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Evenson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.