Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 300557 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 157 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1009 PM EDT FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT, DECOUPLED WINDS THUS FAR THIS EVENING HAVE ALLOWED HOURLY TEMPS TO FALL A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN PRIOR EXPECTATIONS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. SO THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO LOWER MIN TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, AS WINDS STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WARM/MOIST ADVECTION BEGINS, SHOULD SEE TEMPS HOVER STEADY AND RISE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AREAS LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT, SO ULTIMATELY OPTED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID/UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 415 PM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE AFTER 18Z...AND MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OUR REGION CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OUT OF SPC. BETTER DYNAMICS AND STRONGER SHEAR WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. CAPE VALUES REACH OVER 2000 IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT CONVECTION TO END AND JUST SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING. COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS MENTIONED IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY AS REGION IS IN THE COOL SECTOR BEHIND COLD FRONT...MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...A GOOD 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FORESEEN BASED ON CONSENSUS OF 00Z GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF. DEEP-LAYER NWLY FLOW ON ERN PERIPHERY OF SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO START THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND IF SURFACE WINDS DROP OFF SUFFICIENTLY...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NORTHEASTERNVT...TO AROUND 40F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION. AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS PROVIDING PLEASANT/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S THURSDAY...BEFORE MODERATING BACK INTO THE LOW 70S ON FRIDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF CONCERNING POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE...AND TRACKS STRONGEST UVV ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF - ON THE OTHER HAND - KEEPS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATER FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY 15-30 POPS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST POP VALUES ACROSS SRN ZONES. CLOUDS COULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO AROUND 70F FOR SATURDAY...BEFORE TRENDING WARMING (LOW-MID 70S) WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR (POSSIBLE MVFR MIST AT MPV) WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS TOWARDS MORNING. PRIMARY AVIATION FOCUS WILL BE IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...DUE TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED MID- TO HIGH CLOUDS INTO SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO FURTHER INCREASE INTO THE 10-18 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS 25-28 KTS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE MORE SCATTERED...BUT SOME COULD TURN STRONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...LIGHTNING AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BEST SHOT AT SEEING THIS ACTIVITY AFTER 18Z WOULD BE AT MSS AND SLK...AND AFTER 22Z AT REST OF SITES. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DEVELOPING N-NW WINDS BEHIND SURFACE COLD FRONT. TRENDING VFR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY...BUT STALLING FRONTAL ZONE MAY RESULT IN POSSIBLE MVFR SHOWERS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MAINLY FOR RUT/MPV. AVIATION WX CONDITION PREDICTABILITY LOW AT THIS POINT FROM MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY.
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&& .MARINE... AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES/LOCONTO SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO MARINE...NEILES

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