Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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982 FXUS61 KBTV 261540 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1140 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure area at the surface and aloft along the mid Atlantic coast will drift slowly northeast today and be near Cape Cod tonight. A ridge of high pressure will build northward from the mid Atlantic states northward into northern New York this afternoon. Expecting rain showers this morning to begin to taper off by this afternoon, with mostly cloudy skies expected. A ridge of high pressure will be over the North Country on Thursday, with highs in the 70s to the lower 80s. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 1136 AM EDT Wednesday...Updated forecast to integrate latest trends into the grids and associated forecast. Water vapor continues to show cyclonic flow with low level upslope southeast flow impacting our central/eastern vt cwa...while some drying aloft is occurring across northern NY. We are in the squeeze play today between drier air associated with building ridge aloft and subsidence and low level moisture with low pres along the coast. Thinking some breaks in the overcast develop this afternoon along and west of the cpv with mostly cloudy continues prevailing across central/eastern VT. Clouds will have a big impact on temps with cool maritime airmass in eastern sections with highs only in the 50s to near 60f...while upper 60s to lower 70s are possible over the SLV. Have trimmed back the pops as most of the area should remain dry...besides some light sprinkles/drizzle in the mountains of VT. Rest of fcst in good shape. Previous discussion from 416 AM EDT Wednesday...Radar loop showing scattered rain shower activity around the region this morning. Expecting the showers to taper off this afternoon as a ridge of high pressure aloft builds northward into northern New York this afternoon. Expecting skies to be mostly cloudy today and tonight. Highs today will be in the 60s. Lows tonight will be mainly in the 40s to lower 50s. A ridge of high pressure will be over the region on Thursday with highs mainly in the 70s to lower 80s. .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 354 AM EDT Wednesday...Frontal boundary extending from closed low around James Bay will moves across the North Country Thursday night through early Friday. Even though the front will exit east on Friday, vorticity at 500mb will continue to affect the region with clouds. Temperatures not as warm with generally 70s in the Champlain Valley, eastwards. 60s to the west.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 354 AM EDT Wednesday...As ridge axis sets up near Bermuda, several pieces of vorticity will move over the Northeast, resulting in multiple days of chances of rain showers. Models continue to show brief period of dry weather over the North Country Saturday night into Sunday before strengthening low pressure system brings WAA showers Sunday night. Expect frontal boundary associated with the stacked low to affect the region Monday night. With PWATS over 1.5 inches, still looking at periods of heavier rain along with gusty winds due 850mb jet of 40-50 kts or more jet. GFS continues to show 500-1000J/kg MUCAPE in the St Lawrence Valley on Monday, which could help initiate convection. Precipitation chances continue on Tuesday as the base of the mid-level trough moves over the region. Precip begins to taper off late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12Z Thursday...Mainly VFR in light rain showers across the region as of 11Z Wednesday, with some local pockets of IFR/MVFR in fog and mist. Expecting most of the light rain shower activity will come to an end by 18Z Wednesday, as an upper ridge builds into the region this afternoon. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...Taber SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...WGH/Nash is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.