Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 290845 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 345 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING, PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EMERGING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL POSSIBLE IS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR THE MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AS WEAK SURFACE WAVE/COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WEAKENING IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AS IT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. SO BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY BEFORE NOON. EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES AND SHIFT MORE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. ALSO BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN, PROVIDING ANOTHER DAY WITH NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS. EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS AT THE SUMMITS TO LOW 30S IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING, COOLING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...NW FLOW PREVAILS WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROVIDING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. VALLEYS MORE LIKELY TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN, 925MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS, AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN SURFACE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS TONIGHT. COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TUESDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES BEING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERALL LOOKING AT RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER...BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO EXIST OVER MOST OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW HOWEVER WOULD BE WITH THE LAKE EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. UNFORTUNATELY THE LONGER RANGE DATA BEGINS TO DIVERGE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND NOW THERE ARE SEVERAL DIFFERENT SCENARIOS THAT COULD PLAY OUT FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL STAY THE COURSE FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL THE DATA BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT. THUS LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SNOW AT THE ONSET AND THEN A MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING, PROVIDING POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY BETWEEN 10Z-16Z. AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT, IT WILL WEAKEN AND MOST LIKELY KEEP KRUT DRY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LOWER CIGS, BUT REMAIN VFR EXCEPT AT KSLK WHICH WILL SEE MARGINAL MVFR. AFTER IT PASSES, CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TO SCT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SEE AN INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTINESS OF 15-20KTS OUT OF THE NW WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH. GUSTS SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION AT KSLK WHERE WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALLOW SCT -SHSN AND OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...KGM

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