Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KBTV 231720
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1220 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017
-- Changed Discussion --A wintry mix of precipitation will overspread the North Country
after midnight tonight and become heavy at times during the
Tuesday Morning commute. An extremely hazardous Tuesday Morning
commute is anticipated with the icy roads and poor
visibilities. A plowable snow and sleet accumulation is
likely...along with some ice. Improving weather with above
normal temperatures return by Wednesday.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 1214 PM EST Monday...Minor update to capture latest
surface trends through the rest of today. This included bumping
temps up several degrees cpv and down several ticks over the
Northeast Kingdom. Rest of forecast remains unchanged with this
update. A complete discussion with latest thinking regarding the
messy winter storm will be issued with this afternoon`s
Still an extremely complex and complicated forecast with regards
to precip type and associated accumulations. NAM continues to
support a warm layer around 5000 feet of 4 to 6c air...while
cold layer around 2000 to 3000 feet is between -2c and
-4c...supporting mostly sleet/freezing rain. Meanwhile...GFS
cools the column associated with strong dynamics and supports
mostly a snow event...with some light mix as steadier/heavier
precip tapers off on Tuesday Afternoon.
In our forecast we have taking the middle of the road approach
using an ensemble model blend for thermal profiles and
associated precip type. This supports a mixed bag of snow and
sleet initially...with areas of freezing rain...especially
toward Tuesday midday. Total snow/sleet accumulations of 2 to 6
inches is our current forecast with ice accumulation of one to
two tenths possible...especially eastern/central vt...including
the northeast Kingdom. Expecting the heaviest precip to occur
right during the Tuesday morning commute...so an extremely
hazardous morning commute is expected.
Also...expect localized gusts between 30 and 40 mph along the
southern Green Mountains from East Middlebury to Mt Holly late
tonight into Tuesday.
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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 303 AM EST Monday...Stacked closed low pressure system
off the southern coast of Long Island will gradually move north
and east as associated trough and vorticity continues to affect
the North Country Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Colder
air over Northern NY will result in mostly snow showers while
eastern VT will continue to have warm layer aloft resulting in
sleet or snow/sleet mix Tuesday night. Expect colder air to
filter in on W to NW flow Wednesday morning as the surface low
moves toward Gulf of Maine/Nova Scotia. Lingering upslope snow
possible before ridging aloft provides a break in precip most of
Wednesday. Snow/sleet accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches
possible, with higher amounts in the mtns possible. Temperatures
in the 20s Tuesday night will warm into the 30s on Wednesday.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 303 AM EST Monday...Late Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night, another area of surface low pressure will bring
precipitation to the North Country. This low will be associated
with 500mb shortwave with bulk of energy and moisture being to
our south and east. Therefore, only expecting light rain and/or
snow showers. Several more shortwaves move through the area as
eastern North America remains under the influence of mid level
trough. This will result in chance for snow showers throughout
the remainder of the period. Temperatures will also trend cooler
but remain above normal by about 5 degrees.
.AVIATION /17Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 12z Tuesday...Ceilings across Vermont and northern New
York this morning vary from mainly MVFR/VFR, to local pockets of
IFR ceilings. Expecting mainly VFR/MVFR ceilings through 06Z
Tuesday, as the region continues to have low level moisture
trapped beneath an upper level ridge. Models have continued the
trend of slowing the arrival of precipitation into the region
from a low pressure area developing off the mid Atlantic coast,
as upper level ridge over the region helping to slow the
northward progression of precipitation from the low pressure
area developing off the mid Atlantic coast. Expecting
precipitation to start between 00z-06Z Tuesday across south
central Vermont, with precipitation expected to start between
06Z-12Z Tuesday across northern Vermont and northern New York. A
mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is possible across the
region late tonight.
Outlook 12z Tuesday through Friday...Expecting a wintry mix of
precipitation to develop Monday evening and continue into
Tuesday with the potential for moderate icing and major impacts
to the aviation community. A mix of snow...sleet...and freezing
rain is expected...with the heaviest precip occurring between
03z-15z Tuesday. Expect mvfr to ifr cigs/vis with periods of
lifr vis in the heavier bursts of snow/sleet. Also...gusty
southeast/east winds are likely at Rutland during this time
period...with areas of wind shear and turbulence areawide
associated with 925mb to 800mb winds of 50 to 60 knots.
Improving conditions with lingering rain/snow showers on Weds
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST
Tuesday for VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST
Tuesday for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.