Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 161751 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1251 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front moving southeastward across the North Country early this afternoon will bring a period of snow to the region, with a dusting to an inch in most areas. The front will eventually usher in colder and drier air on northwest winds this evening. As an area of surface high pressure builds across from the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, clearing skies and lighter winds overnight will result in lows in the single digits to low teens for early morning Saturday. High pressure will maintain tranquil weather conditions throughout the day Saturday, with highs in the low to mid 30s. Thereafter, an area of low pressure moving from the Delmarva peninsula eastward well south of New England will bring a chance for light snow Saturday night, mainly across central and south-central Vermont. A significant warming trend is expected Monday through Wednesday of next week, along with increasing chances for rain. Near record high temperatures are possible Tuesday into Wednesday, with highs well into the 50s and possibly lower 60s.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 1240 PM EST Friday...Secondary cold front is making its way sewd across nrn NY into far nwrn VT at 1730Z, with periods of snow associated with the front for a 1-2 hr period. Have issued a Special Weather Statement for combination of vsby below 1SM, a quick dusting to 1" of snowfall, and falling temperatures, which may produce some icy spots later this afternoon. Precipitation may initially begin as rain across VT, before transitioning to snow as temps fall into the mid 30s thru 20Z. Likely reaching 32F at BTV by 21Z or so. The greatest concentration of the upslope/frontal snow will be thru 20Z...but then drier air moving in will start to decrease the areal coverage later this afternoon with all snow showers coming to an end by this evening. High temperatures already occurred this morning, and temperatures will fall thru the 30s and upr 20s thru early this evening. Clearing skies tonight will develop as high pressure builds into the region. Lows tonight will be in the single digits and lower teens. Saturday is shaping up to be a real nice day with dry weather...a good deal of sunshine...and highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 304 AM EST Friday...Little overall change from the previous forecast thinking for the latter half of the weekend as the North Country will be in-between one area of low pressure passing southeast of the benchmark, and another well north of the region passing south of James Bay. It does appear though that there may be enough moisture thrown northward from the coastal low to work with ascent along the tail of a passing cold front extending from the northern low to produce some light snow over portions of the forecast area Saturday night, with some orographic snow showers across the higher terrain early Sunday morning. Overall, the pattern doesn`t favor any significant snowfall, with the best chance at any accumulations being across central/southern Vermont where perhaps up to 2-3" is possible, and northward a dusting to maybe an inch. A brief area of high pressure begins to build into the region by mid- day Sunday with any lingering mountain snow showers dissipating and some breaks of sunshine developing for the afternoon. Lows both Saturday and Sunday nights will be mild in the teens to mid 20s, and Sunday will be the first of several days above normal with highs in the mid 30s to around 40. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 304 AM EST Friday...Big pattern change is on the horizon for next week with little doubt in this forecasters mind that warmer weather is on it`s way with potentially some hydro concerns to pay attention to. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the persistent ridge that has dominated much of the winter over the west coast finally breaks down and troughing develops there while an anomalously strong ridge builds over the western Atlantic. Anticyclonic return flow around the building Bermuda high will push the polar jet well north of the region Monday through Wednesday with strong southwesterly low/mid level flow ushering in a warm, moist GOMEX airmass over much of the eastern CONUS. While it appears there`s little uncertainty that temperatures will be well above normal for the period, questions remain on how far north the surface boundary sets up and where the resulting QPF develops. Have stuck close to the GFS solution for now which has performed quite well this winter and so far has been consistent in regards to the upcoming pattern. That said, the forecast features very mild temperatures for late February with highs Monday warming firmly into the 40s, and further into the 50s for Tuesday and Wednesday with periods of rain from Monday afternoon through Tuesday night. Based on model trends over the past 2 days, the potential for ice jam breakups and rapid snowmelt certainly needs to be watched mid-week, but with total QPF over the 48hr period looking to be an inch or less, feel the threat will be limited in coverage and we wouldn`t be looking at any similar to the problems we experienced during the middle of last month. By Wednesday afternoon, the surface boundary finally looks to drop southward as a cold front with high pressure building into the Great Lakes and southern Ontario/Quebec. Will likely see some scattered precipitation along the fropa Wednesday afternoon and evening before the high builds into the forecast area for Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 18Z Saturday...Will see some minor impacts to aviation ground ops associated with 0.5-1" snowfall thru 20Z as secondary cold front makes its way sewd thru the TAF sites. MVFR ceilings and HIR TRRN OBSCD with frontal passage this afternoon will gradually improve back to VFR early this evening, and with clearing skies after 00Z. Will see some brief IFR to LIFR conditions as well with periods of snowfall reducing vsby below 1 mile at times thru 19Z across nrn NY, and thru 20-21Z across VT. Any lingering mtn flurries will end late this afternoon as well. Should see VFR through the remainder of the period tonight thru 18Z Saturday. In terms of winds, generally NW 8-12kts thru 04Z tonight, and then decreasing to generally below 5kts as high pressure builds into the region from the west. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Washingtons Birthday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos/Evenson SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Banacos

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