Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 161144
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
744 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Areas of showers are winding down with dry conditions briefly
returning today followed by another round of valley rain and
mountain snow tonight through Sunday. Cooler temperatures are
expected to begin next week as we remain under an unsettled
pattern that will feature periods of showers.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 732 AM EDT Saturday...Freezing fog continues to be
pervasive east of the Green Mountains with some concerns for
light ice accretion on elevated surfaces. Those heading out this
morning should exercise caution. Elsewhere, fog has been less
persistent, but a few pockets may be lingering in most
susceptible locations. Adjustments were minimal with light
showers winding down east of the Green Mtns as expected.
Otherwise, valley temperatures needed to be increased due to
insulating effect of lower clouds.
Previous Discussion...Zonal 500mb flow with keep
the overall weather pattern progressive with fast tracking lows
moving through. This morning`s showers will will fizzle by the
late morning hours with some slick spots possible from overnight
freezing fog and potential for a few icy spots especially in
northeastern Vermont and elevations above 1000ft in the
Adirondacks. Elevated surfaces will be most susceptible.
Temperatures will warm above generally 5-8 degrees above
seasonal averages today topping out in the mid/upper 40s to
around 50 degrees. After these brief, dry conditions through the
afternoon, the next system will track through central Canada.
Character of this system remains unchanged with a barotropically
stacked low and short residence in the region due to
progressive flow. Still, models have phased a little upper level
energy with the surface front resulting in an increase in QPF
overnight into Sunday. With westerly flow, there will be a
terrain focus with the Champlain Valley receiving around 0.1"
and 0.25-0.4 inches for the western slopes of the Adirondacks
and Green Mountains. Snow amounts for the Adirondacks and
northeastern Vermont will generally be less than 1" with 2-4"
for the peaks. Westerly breezes Sunday will be around 20 mph
with precipitation trending down through the day.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 343 AM EDT Saturday...Moist westerly flow will cause upslope
snow showers to continue on and off during this period, with a few
inches expected in the most favored areas, particularly in the
northern Greens. The flow will switch from southwesterly to
northwesterly during the day on Monday and change the favored areas
a bit, but any western facing slopes should be seeing scattered snow
showers throughout this period. Snow showers Sunday night should
mostly only be orographic but daytime heating on Monday will allow
some scattered convection to occur, not just in the upslope areas.
Temperatures will rise above freezing on Monday in the broad
valleys, but with steep lapse rates and cold air aloft, some graupel
or small hail is possible. Highs will be in the 30s in most areas
but the broad valleys should reach the low 40s. However, any
convection will briefly reduce the temperatures before they rise
again once it ends.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 343 AM EDT Saturday...An upper level trough stays over the
region into the middle of the week and the scattered upslope snow
showers will continue. The snow showers will be briefly enhanced as
embedded shortwaves pass through. The snow showers will likely be
the most numerous Monday night as the most pronounced of the
embedded shortwaves passes through. Some snow showers are possible
in the broad valleys during this time. Drier air will arrive later
Monday night but there should be just enough moisture for some of
the scattered snow showers to continue into Wednesday. Some model
guidance is hinting another embedded shortwave may cause more snow
showers for part of the day on Thursday but there is higher
uncertainty about this feature. Ridging should start to build in on
Friday and any remaining snow showers should end before then. A more
potent storm system is possible later in the weekend but there is
wide model spread so will continue to keep watching. Overall,
temperatures will be close to normal in this time period with highs
generally slightly below normal and lows generally slightly above
normal. Model guidance has been trending colder for late in the week
and for the start of the weekend and there generally have been fewer
and fewer GFS and Euro ensemble members with highs above the mid 40s
for the broad valleys with each new run.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through 06Z Sunday...Flight categories are varying widely from
VFR to VLIFR with a mix of atmospheric conditions occurring.
Areas that remain clear, like EFK, continue to experience dense
fog, while other locations in the Champlain valley are improving
as skies cloud over and mixing increases ahead of scattered
showers. Behind these showers IFR/MVFR conds will continue
through 12Z. By 15z, VFR conds become more widespread through
around 00Z when the next precipitation comes through. MVFR/IFR
conds will spread overnight tonight with a mix of rain and
higher elevation snow showers.
Outlook...
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Scattered SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance
SHRA.
Monday Night: MVFR. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Boyd