Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 201411 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1011 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A good deal of sunshine is expected for this afternoon with high temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Dry weather continues tonight and Monday as high pressure moves across the area. A warming trend will take place with highs in the 80s and continued sunshine. Above normal temperatures continue on Tuesday with highs in the 80s...but an approaching trough of low pressure will enhance the potential for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1011 AM EDT Sunday...Fog has dissipated in southeast Vermont and clouds have transitioned to daytime pattern with strato-cu across the higher terrain and clear in the valleys. Temperatures trending along to forecast highs in the upper 70s to near 80, supported by latest hi res model 925 mb temps around 18c this afternoon. Adjusted surface dewpoints downward a bit utlizing latest LAV guidance as current obs are more in the upper 50s. Lower afternoon RH will result. Previous Discussion...Water vapor imagery showing the upper trough is retreating to the east with weak high pressure building across the region. Noticeable drying is taking place upstream across southeast Ontario and thus we should be able to see increasing amounts of sunshine as the day wears on. Previous Discussion...For tonight and Monday...high pressure builds in tonight and gradually exits the area on Monday. Dry weather is expected during this time period with little in the way of cloud cover as well. Flow in the low and mid levels becomes west and southwest...which will allow for warm air advection to take place. Based on increasing 850 mb temperatures all areas should easily get into 80s with a few spots in the Champlain Valley getting into the upper 80s. Solar eclipse viewing on Monday still looks good with little in the way of cloud cover.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 455 AM EDT Sunday...Monday night should mainly remain dry ahead of approaching frontal system which will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area later Tuesday and Tuesday night. Warm air advection continues on warm southwesterly flow, temperatures will only drop into the 60s across the North Country. Could see a couple isolated showers in the Saint Lawrence valley. On Tuesday, a low pressure system will move Northeastward from the Northern Great Lakes into Southern Quebec. Warm air advection on moist southwesterly flow continues on Tuesday and max temps will edge into the upper 80s, with perhaps a couple 90 degree readings in the warmer spots. Looks like surface cold front will still be west of our forecast area by 00z Wed. Think that by Tuesday afternoon we could have some surface based instability, especially in the Saint Lawrence valley and Northern Adirondacks, enough for some thunderstorms to pop up ahead of the approaching cold front. Have increased pops after 18z in our western zones to likely. Pretty strong upper level jet dynamics, so think that storms that do form could have strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall with pwats nearing two inches by Thursday evening. Have not added enhanced wording yet, but may need to as we get closer to Tuesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 500 AM EDT Sunday...Surface cold front will push west to east across our forecast area Tuesday night, widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected. As previously mentioned, gusty winds and heavy rain will still be possible with high pwats and favorable jet dynamics. Not the best time for a fropa in regards to severe weather, but at this time looks like some of the storms could be strong. We may have some showers Wednesday and Wednesday night with upper level trough trailing departing surface frontal system crossing our forecast area. Conditions will trend drier from Thursday onward with large ridge of surface high pressure building into the region from the North for most of the period. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12Z Monday...Upper trough has finally moved out of the area and isolated showers have dissipated or moved east of the area. Drier air is moving in from the west and northwest as high pressure builds into the region. This is helping to erode the clouds over the area and thus any VFR/MVFR ceilings will only linger through about 15z before VFR conditions develop for the remainder of the period with little in the way of any cloud cover. Winds will be from the west and northwest at 5 to 15 knots through about 00z and then as high pressure settles over the region after 00z...winds will become light and variable. Outlook... Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/Hanson SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Evenson

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