Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 220541 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 141 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure will remain over the north country through most of Thursday. A cold front will move south from Canada Thursday night and early Friday. This cold front will bring rain showers to the north country Thursday night and Friday. A ridge of high pressure will then build south from Canada on Saturday and will remain over the north country through next Wednesday. Fall like temperatures will be over the north country Saturday and Sunday with high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1248 AM EDT Thursday...Another night of wide ranging temperatures so just some minor tweaks to the grids to reflect this variability. Otherwise should see a few high clouds moving in as the night wears on and a low potential for widespread fog. Previous Discussion... On Thursday, a ridge of high pressure will be over the region early Thursday. However, expecting increasing clouds during the day on Thursday with highs mainly in the 70s, except for some lower 80s in some valley locations during the day on Thursday. A cold front will be approaching the international border late in the day on Thursday. Have gone with slight chance pops for rain showers in the Saint Lawrence valley in northern New York late Thursday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday...A sharp cold front with a band of rain showers will drop from north to south across our region on Thursday Night into Friday. Both GFS/NAM show ribbon of enhanced 850 to 500mb moisture...along with best 850 to 700mb fgen fields along the international border. Have mention likely to cat (70 to 90%) northern cwa to chc/likely (40% to 60%) southern/central sections on Thursday Night into Friday. Best forcing/moisture and associated qpf fields are across our cwa between 03 UTC and 09 UTC Friday. Thinking qpf will range around 0.25 to 0.50 northern mountains to <0.10 southern sections. Breezy north/northwest winds flow fropa on Friday morning with moderate low level cold air advection. Progged 850mb temps start near 15c at 06z Friday...but fall to 5c by 00z Saturday...with similar trends in the 925mb temps. This presents a tricky min temp forecast on Friday morning and high temps for Friday afternoon...given the advection and timing of front. Will mention lows mainly in the 50s to near 60f on Friday morning with clouds/precip and fropa timing...but highs only warming into the 60s on Friday afternoon with brisk north winds. Temps will probably fall throughout the morning hours...before leveling off and rising some when more sun during the late afternoon on Friday. Northerly flow should advect drier air in aloft...with some lingering upslope clouds likely across the mountains for much of Friday. For Friday Night...expect clearing skies with building high pres from the north. Both NAM/GFS show deep dry layer directly overhead..with still some gradient flow between building high pres and departing low pres. Thinking the clearing skies and progged 850mb temps dropping to near 0c supports our coldest night of the early fall season...with lows ranging from the m/u 20s mtns to upper 40s near lake champlain. Given expected thermal and wind profiles areas of frost look likely on Saturday Morning away from Lake Champlain. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday...Large scale pattern amplification is advertised by 12z guidance...supporting a mostly dry forecast with slightly below normal temps. GFS/ECMWF indicate an omega type pattern with trof across Eastern Canada...ridge East Coast...and another deep trof over the central Conus. Models are having difficulties on when pattern will break and associated timing of trof across the central plains will impact our region by late next week. Otherwise...deep dry layer will result in large diurnal swings in temps from cool overnight lows to mild daytime highs. Saturday...a cool day anticipated with clouds developing over the mountains associated with upslope flow and low level cold air advection. Soundings are very dry...but still cannot rule out a sprinkle or light shower over the dacks/northern greens on Sat Aftn...associated with 5h vort in the northwest flow aloft. Progged 850mb temps near 0c...with brisk northwest winds support highs only in the 40s mountains to upper 50s warmer valleys. Clear and chilly with areas of frost expected on Saturday Night/Sunday morning with lows ranging from the mid/upper 20s SLK/Northeast Kingdom to low/mid 30s central VT/SLV to mid 40s near Lake Champlain. Sunday...Another 5h vort in the flow aloft impacts northern VT around 18z...but once again deep layer moisture is limited. Have mention schc to very low chc pops to cover the potential for a light shower or sprinkle but qpf will be very light < 0.10". Little change in thermal profiles expected with highs mainly in the upper 40s to near 60f depending upon location and elevation. Early next week...mid/upper level ridge builds with warming low level temperature profiles. This supports a dry forecast with near normal temps. Expecting highs mainly in the mid 50s to upper 60s and lows mainly in the 30s and 40s. Next chance for rain is late next week. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
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Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Expecting only mid and high level clouds to move into the region through 00z before clouds slowly begin to lower...but still remain above 5000 feet. Dry conditions are expected for much of the period...but as a cold front begins to move down from Canada...the threat for showers will increase at KMSS after 04z. The bulk of precipitation will not move into the entire area until after 06z. Light winds this morning will increase from the south and southwest by midday and persist through the period...but speeds will generally be under 15 knots. Outlook 06Z Friday through Monday... 06z Fri to 00z Sat: MVFR with scattered showers associated with a cold front. 00z Sat through 00z Tue: Mainly VFR as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...Evenson/WGH SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Evenson/WGH

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