Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 161144 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 744 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Areas of showers are winding down with dry conditions briefly returning today followed by another round of valley rain and mountain snow tonight through Sunday. Cooler temperatures are expected to begin next week as we remain under an unsettled pattern that will feature periods of showers.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 732 AM EDT Saturday...Freezing fog continues to be pervasive east of the Green Mountains with some concerns for light ice accretion on elevated surfaces. Those heading out this morning should exercise caution. Elsewhere, fog has been less persistent, but a few pockets may be lingering in most susceptible locations. Adjustments were minimal with light showers winding down east of the Green Mtns as expected. Otherwise, valley temperatures needed to be increased due to insulating effect of lower clouds. Previous Discussion...Zonal 500mb flow with keep the overall weather pattern progressive with fast tracking lows moving through. This morning`s showers will will fizzle by the late morning hours with some slick spots possible from overnight freezing fog and potential for a few icy spots especially in northeastern Vermont and elevations above 1000ft in the Adirondacks. Elevated surfaces will be most susceptible. Temperatures will warm above generally 5-8 degrees above seasonal averages today topping out in the mid/upper 40s to around 50 degrees. After these brief, dry conditions through the afternoon, the next system will track through central Canada. Character of this system remains unchanged with a barotropically stacked low and short residence in the region due to progressive flow. Still, models have phased a little upper level energy with the surface front resulting in an increase in QPF overnight into Sunday. With westerly flow, there will be a terrain focus with the Champlain Valley receiving around 0.1" and 0.25-0.4 inches for the western slopes of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. Snow amounts for the Adirondacks and northeastern Vermont will generally be less than 1" with 2-4" for the peaks. Westerly breezes Sunday will be around 20 mph with precipitation trending down through the day.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 343 AM EDT Saturday...Moist westerly flow will cause upslope snow showers to continue on and off during this period, with a few inches expected in the most favored areas, particularly in the northern Greens. The flow will switch from southwesterly to northwesterly during the day on Monday and change the favored areas a bit, but any western facing slopes should be seeing scattered snow showers throughout this period. Snow showers Sunday night should mostly only be orographic but daytime heating on Monday will allow some scattered convection to occur, not just in the upslope areas. Temperatures will rise above freezing on Monday in the broad valleys, but with steep lapse rates and cold air aloft, some graupel or small hail is possible. Highs will be in the 30s in most areas but the broad valleys should reach the low 40s. However, any convection will briefly reduce the temperatures before they rise again once it ends. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 343 AM EDT Saturday...An upper level trough stays over the region into the middle of the week and the scattered upslope snow showers will continue. The snow showers will be briefly enhanced as embedded shortwaves pass through. The snow showers will likely be the most numerous Monday night as the most pronounced of the embedded shortwaves passes through. Some snow showers are possible in the broad valleys during this time. Drier air will arrive later Monday night but there should be just enough moisture for some of the scattered snow showers to continue into Wednesday. Some model guidance is hinting another embedded shortwave may cause more snow showers for part of the day on Thursday but there is higher uncertainty about this feature. Ridging should start to build in on Friday and any remaining snow showers should end before then. A more potent storm system is possible later in the weekend but there is wide model spread so will continue to keep watching. Overall, temperatures will be close to normal in this time period with highs generally slightly below normal and lows generally slightly above normal. Model guidance has been trending colder for late in the week and for the start of the weekend and there generally have been fewer and fewer GFS and Euro ensemble members with highs above the mid 40s for the broad valleys with each new run. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 06Z Sunday...Flight categories are varying widely from VFR to VLIFR with a mix of atmospheric conditions occurring. Areas that remain clear, like EFK, continue to experience dense fog, while other locations in the Champlain valley are improving as skies cloud over and mixing increases ahead of scattered showers. Behind these showers IFR/MVFR conds will continue through 12Z. By 15z, VFR conds become more widespread through around 00Z when the next precipitation comes through. MVFR/IFR conds will spread overnight tonight with a mix of rain and higher elevation snow showers. Outlook... Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Scattered SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Monday Night: MVFR. Chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Boyd NEAR TERM...Boyd SHORT TERM...Myskowski LONG TERM...Myskowski AVIATION...Boyd

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