Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 032050 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 450 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. BEHIND THIS FRONT SEASONABLY COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY AUGUST NORMS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 441 PM EDT MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #466 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT FOR MOST OF VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK. LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW CENTERED VICINITY OF JAMES BAY THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. BUT IN THE MEANTIME...VERY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE...WHILE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AIDING IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...WHILE BULK OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT WHERE SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS REST OF VERMONT THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...AS ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL NOT MOVE THROUGH TILL TONIGHT WESTERN ZONES AND LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY EAST. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SLOWLY ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR WEST...LINEAR BOWING SEGMENTS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALSO NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY TRAINING OF STORMS OCCUR. CONVECTION WILL DECREASE LATER ON THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 OR VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 441 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND SAGS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY OVER TIME. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE PRIOR TRENDS IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH FAVORABLE ARRIVAL TIMES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN INSTABILITY IS GREATEST...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHERN AREAS BOTH DAYS...MAINLY IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH GREATEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING COOLER WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 441 PM EDT MONDAY... PERSISTENCE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION ALBEIT LESSENING INTENSITY AS WE GET TO LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. PRETTY UNEVENTFUL...COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH AUGUST SUN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INSTABILITY AND LOW THREAT OF ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM FRI/FRI NGT BUT STILL LEANING THAT WE`LL BE ON NORTHERN EDGE AT WORST...THUS KEEPING MAINLY DRY FROM THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE AOB SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT ONLY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/40S COLD SPOTS.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR IN VCNTY OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18-24Z. IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK BETWEEN 07-12Z TUE. SCT -SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA AFT 16Z TUE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS. SSW WINDS 10-20 KTS THRU 22-24Z THEN LGT BETWEEN 00-12Z THEN SW/W AT 10 KNOTS AFT 12Z TUE. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS. 12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO. PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...SLW EQUIPMENT...JMG

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