Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 200237 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1037 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... As a cold front exits the region tonight, high pressure will build into the North Country providing sunny skies and seasonal temperatures through the weekend. Our next system approaches late Sunday afternoon and evening, with showers developing from west to east through Sunday night and continuing on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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As of 1033 PM EDT Friday...No significant changes to any sensible weather. Latest WV/IR satellite shows some high clouds trying to move into the North County however this should have little impact on the forecast. Overall, things are progressing along towards a quiet weekend. Please see the latest PNSBTV for results confirming a microburst in Addison County VT occurring on May 18. Previous Discussion...Surface cold front taking its sweet time shifting south through the region today, with northern areas stuck in the 50s while southern Vermont warmed up nicely into the mid/upper 70s. Since the front never really got down to where mid-day instability was, the threat for showers has pretty much ended as drier air works into the region with high pressure building in from the north. Low/mid-level flow is blocked per froude numbers off our locally run 4km WRF, indicating clouds will be slow to diminish this evening, but by midnight building subsidence aloft should win out with clearing skies expected thereafter. 925-850mb temps fall to right around 0C and surface winds abate supporting good radiational cooling with low temps falling into the 30s area-wide, locally lower 40s in the Champlain Valley. Could see some spots of frost develop, but winds aloft should remain strong enough to inhibit any freezing temps where the frost/freeze program as begun. On Saturday, surface high pressure continues to build southeast from James Bay into the region, with an upper ridge amplifying to our west. The result will be sunny skies, a modest northerly winds, and temps slightly below normal ranging through the 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /11 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 317 PM EDT Friday...Remainder of the weekend remains mostly dry through Sunday as the aforementioned surface high remains over the region the the upper ridge builds over the northeast. Building heights and warming mid-levels support warmer temps Saturday night than the previous night in the mid 30s to lower 40s, and highs will push into the upper 60s to low 70s on Sunday. Southerly flow increases Sunday afternoon ahead of our next system digging into the Great Lakes with deep layer moisture ahead of the attending cold front shifting into western areas towards sunset, and widespread showers developing through the night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 259 PM EDT Friday...Cold front continues to move through the area bringing with it showers from west to east through most off the day. Majority of the precipitation looks to be in the pre-dawn hours with about a 0.25" of QPF through early Monday morning, while the rest of the day into the evening will also see another 0.25" and less in the western counties as the system moves through. The flow behind the front will remain mostly westerly to southwesterly, so the significant change will really only look to be increased dew points on Monday before a return to pre-frontal conditions for Tuesday. Tuesday sees another brief dry break as weak ridging passes through the area before giving way to the next system on Wednesday. A surface low and accompanying 500mb closed low will dominate the remainder of the long term with more precipitation and possible thunderstorms late next week. High temperatures in the long term will range from the mid 60s to upper 70s, while lows will be in the 40s to 50s. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions for the entire period with clearing skies. A very small chance for some overnight fog and accompanying MVFR or lower conditions for KMPV/KSLK/KMSS, but right now winds just off the surface seem to be a bit too strong to support it so have opted to keep it out for now. Winds will be out of the northwest to northeast at 05-10 knots for the period. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA. Monday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Deal/Lahiff/MV SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...MV AVIATION...MV

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