Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 170914 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 414 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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The north country remains under cyclonic flow from a surface low pressure area over the Canadian maritimes this morning. A weak ridge of high pressure will build into the region early this afternoon. a weak warm front will approach the region tonight and Saturday. Another cold front will move into the region Sunday night, and then a strong ridge of high pressure will be over the north country Monday and Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 414 AM EST Friday...Surface observations and satellite loop showing plenty of low clouds across the north country early this morning. Also, still some lingering snow shower activity over the Adirondacks and the Green Mountains early this morning, as the region remains under cyclonic flow from a surface low pressure area over the Canadian maritimes early this morning. A weak ridge of high pressure will build slowly east from the Great Lakes into the north country by this afternoon. Expecting cloudy skies this morning to become partly sunny this afternoon as this high builds into the region. Expecting highs mainly in the 20s today. Besides the mountain areas early this morning, have also put in slight chance pops for snow showers or occasional flurries in the Champlain valley and the northern Saint Lawrence valley for this morning. Partly cloudy skies early tonight, will become cloudy overnight as models hint at a warm front approaching the region. Latest guidance suggest this front will be dry with just mainly increasing cloud cover tonight. Have opted to go a bit warmer with min temperatures tonight based on expected increasing cloud cover.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 248 AM EST Friday...Weekend warm up with slight to low chance for precipitation. Saturday starts with ridging aloft and at the surface but mid level shortwave will skirt the international border late in the day, possibly triggering a few showers across the terrain in northern portions of the forecast area. Otherwise, SW flow will continue the influx of warmer air with max temps on Saturday generally in the 40s. Also late Saturday will be increasing winds/gusts as low level jet moves over the region. Channeling up the St Lawrence and downsloping on NE side of Adirondacks will likely lead to some gusts around 30mph. Summits will see stronger winds. Saturday night into Sunday, area of vorticity continues to hug the international border, keeping low chances for showers over the area but the aforementioned low level jet will subside and begin exiting eastward early Sunday. During the day Sunday, vorticity sinks south over the North Country with deeper moisture available to produce greater chance for showers. Temperatures continue to be warm with Saturday night mins in the mid 20s to mid 30s and max temps on cloudy Sunday to be in the 30s to low 40s. Winds at the surface shift NW behind the area of vorticity leading to some upslope showers before tapering off Sunday night. High pressure begins to build in late Sunday night into Monday morning. Low temps still mild but a little cooler in the 20s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 248 AM EST Friday...Quiet pattern as ridge of high pressure dominates the area Monday through Tuesday evening. Slightly cooler temperatures with max temperatures in the low to mid 30s to start the workweek. Temperatures trend warmer through at least mid week. GFS and ECMWF in fair agreement with timing of frontal system to bring scattered showers Tuesday night into Wednesday. Above normal temperatures and another quick moving shortwave will end the work week with chance for showers. && .AVIATION /09Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Through 06z Saturday...Radar trends indicate light snow is decreasing in areal coverage. Through 12z most locations will see MVFR/VFR visibilities...but there will be periods of IFR visibilities. Any snow comes to an end after 12z and visibilities will be in the VFR category for the remainder of the period. As for ceilings...still looking at VFR/MVFR ceilings through 12z with periods of IFR ceilings...but then after 12z ceilings will decrease in areal coverage and become VFR overall. Winds will generally be from the west and northwest through the period...with speeds in the 5 to 15 knot range. Outlook 06z Saturday through Monday... 06z Saturday through 18Z Saturday...High pressure brings mainly dry/VFR conditions to the region. 18Z Saturday through 00z Tuesday...Mainly VFR at the TAF locations. Mid-level trough in west-northwesterly flow will bring additional chances for scattered snow shower activity, mainly across the mountains. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Banacos/Evenson

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