Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 042055 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 355 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT. A RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE WORKWEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. SKY COVER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE TOUGHEST ASPECT OF TONIGHT`S FORECAST. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER TODAY, CLEARING THE NORTH COUNTRY WAY TOO QUICK THAN WHAT`S HAPPENING IN REALITY. FEEL THAT WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING UNTIL LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST/DRIER BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. I`VE OFFERED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BASED ON A BLEND OF RECENT RAP AND 12Z NAM RH. MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WILL ALLOW FOR 925 MB TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVAILABLE MAV/MET MOS GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. VALUES RUN FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AREAS, WITH MID-TEENS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANY MELTED SNOW OR SLUSH DURING THE DAY STANDS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO SLIPPERY SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT`S A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH. FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH- LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW). FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER- TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON`T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I`VE OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR AREA-WIDE BY LATER THIS EVENING,AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK HANGS AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY. AFTER 12Z...CLEAR TO SCT CUMULUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED. IN REGARDS TO WINDS, GUSTY FROM THE WEST- SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT KMSS WHERE GUSTS PEAK AROUND 20-25KTS. WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z, THOUGH REMAIN AROUND 8-12KTS INTO THURSDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE. 06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO NEAR TERM...LOCONTO SHORT TERM...LOCONTO LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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