Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 090003 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 703 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the area tonight bringing much colder air and scattered snow showers. High temperatures from Friday through Sunday are forecast only in the 20s. A weak ridge of high pressure will be over the region on Saturday, with fair and dry weather expected. There will be chance for additional light snow and snow showers across the north country from Sunday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 405 PM EST Thursday...Composite radar loop showing persistent lake effect snow band has moved south into the southern Adirondacks. Additional scattered snow showers showing up on radar across most of the Burlington forecast area. Temperatures are mainly in the 30s in the valleys with 20s over hill towns. There are breaks in the clouds east of the high terrain due to downsloping winds. Mostly cloudy conditions elsewhere. Winds still from the west southwest and will remain there until next cold front crosses the forecast area overnight when winds will become northwest. Front should be through all but Rutland and Windsor Counties by 2 AM. There will likely be some additional snow showers for all areas associated with the cold front as it passes through. Colder tonight with lows in the teens and twenties. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 405 PM EST Thursday...For Friday, expect a cold moist cyclonic flow early which will lead to upslope snow showers. Overall NW flow and Froude forecasts support light orographic snow showers. Highs only in the teens and 20s. Ridging begins to build in later in the day which should force snow showers to gradually diminish. Surface high pressure builds in late Saturday, but a weak upper level impulse may bring some clouds and some additional light snow showers or flurries during the day. Lows Saturday morning in the single digits to teens. Highs on Saturday forecast in the teens and 20s. High pressure is expected to bring partly cloudy skies and cold for Saturday night with lows in the single digits to teens. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 405 PM EST Thursday...Unsettled weather is expected through much of the long term period with temperatures averaging below normal. At the start of the period, a shortwave and associated sfc wave will be moving from the Ohio Valley towards the Northeast states for Sunday into Monday. Some models also suggest that a secondary area of low pressure may form off the coast of New England as the storm exits for Monday night into Tuesday morning. Although there are still variations in the models and ensembles members regarding exact temps aloft and QPF amounts, the vast majority suggest temps both aloft and in the boundary layer will remain below freezing, keeping precip in the form of snow. Amounts are still certain, but at least a light to moderate snowfall look to occur across the entire CWA between Sunday and Monday with a prolonged period of steady light precip. Daytime temps look to be in the 20s to low 30s and lows will be in the teens. Behind this system, the remainder of week will be dominated by chilly temperatures, with the potential for some additional snowfall. The models don`t agree on the timing at all, so generally have slight chc to chc pops for Tuesday through Thursday. At some point, a frontal system looks to move through with some additional snow showers and there`s also the potential for another more organized area of steady snowfall if a wave can develop along this boundary (as suggested by the latest 12z GFS). Daytime temps will continue to mainly be in the 20s with lows in the single digits and teens. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Through 00Z Saturday...As an upper level trough moves into the region, the combination of cyclonic flow, upslope and lake- effect activity will allow for isolated snow showers over the region for tonight. Right now KSLK and KRUT look to be the most active overnight with periods of MVFR/IFR with passing showers. All other locations could experience a period of MVFR ceilings overnight as the upper trough moves through but should trend back to VFR by mid morning. Southwesterly winds at 05-15 knots will shift to the Northwest at 10-20 knots by Friday morning. Outlook 00Z Saturday through Monday... VFR ceilings developing Friday night into Sunday. Next system arrives on Sunday afternoon with another widespread light snow event. This system will produce widespread ifr conditions between 18z Sunday into 12z Monday. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SLW NEAR TERM...SLW SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...MV

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