Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 301124 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 724 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front will finally push across the area today bringing additional showers for today and cooler temperatures for the next few days. Dry conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s and lower humidity levels. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 722 AM EDT Monday...A surface cold front will push across our forecast area today. We will have some showers in our area, mainly across southern and eastern vermont. Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms can be expected. Temperatures will be more mild than yesterday, therefore instability will be limited. There should be enough unstable air to have a few isolated thunderstorms though not mentioning enhanced wording at this time. Best threat will be central into South central Vermont. BTV4 and HRRR both showing a line develop this afternoon around 18z near the Champlain valley and then pushing eastward through 00z. Maximum temperatures today will be in the lower to mid 80s. Drier air will move into the region overnight behind departing cold front. Min temperatures will be in the mid 50s to around 60. Any showers remaining will die down with loss of daytime heating. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 335 AM EDT Monday...Quiet, seasonably mild weather is then expected for the Tuesday through Thursday time frame with surface high pressure being the dominant weather feature. Other than a passing sprinkle or light shower across the northern Green Mountains on Tuesday with a passing upper shortwave trough, dry weather is expected through the period. Daily high temperatures will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s with overnight lows generally in the 45 to 55 range with some variability. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 335 AM EDT Monday...By later in the week there is increasing confidence that we`ll return to an on and off showery regime as a series of shortwave troughs/fronts push into the region. There is broad agreement among this morning`s models that a weakening frontal zone will limp into the region by Thursday night into Friday before washing out is it presses east by next Saturday. Given the current consensus will maintain forecast continuity offering chance pops for showers during this period with little airmass change expected. Thereafter confidence lowers in regard to potential development of a larger-scale longwave trough or closed upper system to our northwest and its eventual eastward movement/potential impacts. Teleconnections and latest ensemble output does suggest amplification of western conus ridging which would tend to foster lowering heights/troughing from the upper Midwest/Great Lakes eastward from Sunday onward into next week. However, deterministic output remains at odds on how deep this feature will be, the degree to which it digs south and east over time and what interaction, if any it has with deeper moisture across the mid- Atlantic/southeast. Given at least the broader consensus in this overall troughing scenario will bring solid chance pops for showers and possibly a few storms by later Sunday onward into next Monday. Temperatures should remain within a few degrees of seasonable levels with daily highs in the 70s and overnight lows mainly in the 45 to 55 range. && .AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Through 12z Tuesday...Generally VFR for the daylight hours today. May see some additional showers/isolated thunderstorms with peak afternoon heating...with best chance of thunderstorms development across central and s-central VT. Surface winds becoming generally S-SW 10-15 kts late morning through the afternoon hours then become light overnight. Outlook 12z Tuesday through Friday...Primarily VFR TUE-THU with just a chance of late night fog each night at SLK/MPV mainly 07-11Z. Next frontal system and attendant upper level trough approaching from the Great Lakes region will bring a chance for showers Thursday night into Friday with brief intervals of MVFR to IFR possible associated with rainfall. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Neiles

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