Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 221931 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 331 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION. THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS BASE OF UPPER H5 TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. DRY PBL SHOULD ENSURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...THOUGH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAVORED NRN MTN LOCALES WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE ON DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY BLOCKED FLOW WILL ACT IN CONCERT. LOWS CLOSE TO BIAS-CORRECT 12Z BLENDED DATA...SUGGESTING READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S FOR MOST SPOTS. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED FROST IN THE MOST SHELTERED HOLLOWS OF RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM CONTINUES THIS FALL. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF FROST ISOLATED ENOUGH TO WARRANT OMISSION OF ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS. AS A REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVES AT 10:29 PM EDT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SFC HIGH BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SFC MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND 60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET IN FAVORED LOCALES.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING AND ALL ARE VFR EXCEPT MVFR CIG AT KSLK. GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...THEN WILL LOSE THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL ABATE. STILL EXPECT A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KT ALL TAF SITES OVER NIGHT. WENT WITH BKN100 CIG DURING OVERNIGHT BUT POSSIBLE THAT COULD SCATTER. WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES THERE IS A RISK FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP KSLK/KMPV...BUT FEEL THAT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT NECESSARY RADIATIONAL COOLING. 12-18Z MID CLOUD DECK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT KSLK/KMPV EACH MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE...
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A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS WILL CREATE WAVES FROM 2 TO 4 FEET...GREATEST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LAKE AND ALONG WESTWARD FACING SHORES. WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...HANSON AVIATION...HANSON MARINE...MUCCILLI

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