Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 280800 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 400 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Nearly stationary upper level low pressure over Lake Superior will continue to bring dry and seasonally warm conditions to the North Country through Wednesday. Chances for showers increase for the end of the work week and into the weekend though as the low drifts southward into the Ohio River Valley on Thursday, remaining there through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 208 AM EDT Wednesday...Composite radar loop showing some rain showers over Essex county New York that are moving into Clinton county New York at this time. Have updated the overnight zone forecasts to reflect this. Previous discussion from 1018 PM EDT Tuesday...Water vapor imagery shows series of shortwaves rotating up into our area from the large upper level low pressure system moving southward across the Upper Midwest. These shortwaves are enhancing the development of showers near the Canadian Border and it appears this threat will continue for at least a couple of more hours. Have tweaked grids to account for this activity otherwise remainder of forecast in good shape. Previous Discussion... For tonight into Wednesday, a semi-stationary closed upper low over Lake Superior will continue to be the dominating weather feature across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast as it very slowly meanders south. Mean south/southwesterly flow in a dry slot aloft will continue to rule over the area which will keep conditions dry with variable cloudiness. It will also keep us on the mild side of normal in regards to temperatures with tonights lows only dropping down into 40s for most, exception being the colder hollows of the Adirondacks where some upper 30s are possible. Highs tomorrow will be similar to today for locations west of the Green Mountains in the mid 60s to low 70s, but east of the spine it`ll be a little cooler as a low marine stratus layer moves in overnight and continue through the first half of Wednesday. If the stratus deck wasn`t there tonight, fog would be a good bet for all of our climo favored river valleys, but as such I think it will be confined to northern New York where skies will be clearest and winds light. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 400 AM EDT Wednesday...The synoptic scale setup continues to feature a closed 5h cyclonic circulation over the ohio valley with building ridge and associated surface high pressure over southern canada for Thursday into Friday. Weak spokes of energy rotate around 5h circulation....along with ribbons of enhanced moisture...but weaken across southern vt as they encounter dry air/subsidence. Given the sharp moisture gradient and associated qpf fields continued to mention schc 15 to 20% Thursday Night with chance pops for Friday...mainly across our southern section. Still some uncertainty with regards to how much low level Atlantic moisture advects into our eastern section on 975 to 925mb winds of 15 to 25 knots. Based on less clouds will mention highs lower 70s Northern Saint Lawrence Valley with lower 60s southeast VT for both Thursday and Friday with lows mainly in the 40s colder mountain valleys to mid 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 400 AM EDT Wednesday...Closed 5h circulation over the Ohio Valley slowly lifts toward our region...with deeper moisture and higher pops chances for the weekend. Still not expecting a washout...but several rounds of showers are possible as 5h vort lobes and favorable upper level divergence moves across our region. Furthermore...southerly flow at 500 mb...with easterly 850mb flow will help advect higher pw values near 1.40" across our region over the weekend. Once again pops will be mainly in the chance category with highest qpf values confined to the mountains of vt and parts of the dacks on Saturday and Sunday. Plenty of clouds and little 925mb to 850mb change in temps...will result in highs mainly in the 60s and lows mid 40s to mid 50s. A few lingering showers are possible on Monday...but as building high pres from central canada develops...expect areal coverage/intensity of showers to decrease with mainly dry conditions by Tuesday. Slightly cooler temps follow departing trof with highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 40s for early next week. The bufkit profile at BTV thru 180 hours continues to show <0.10" of qpf (very light) and near 0.50" at VSF...indicating the qpf gradient.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Through 06Z Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period, except for areas of valley fog across eastern and northeast Vermont with areas of IFR/LIFR until 13Z Wednesday. Outlook 06z Thursday through Sunday... 06z Thu - 00z Fri: Mainly VFR. 00z Fri - 00z Mon: Mainly VFR with MVFR in rain showers possible, especially on Saturday/Sunday. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...WGH/Lahiff SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...WGH/Lahiff

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