Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 131837 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 237 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BRINGING A COOL RAINY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT BUT COULD LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GRADUAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1055 AM EDT SATURDAY...SKIES ARE OVERCAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN ADVANCE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING ENEWD OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG MID-UPR LEVEL JET EAST OF THE TROUGH (100KTS AT 300MB OVER SERN ONTARIO) IS ADVANCING NEWD INTO THE REGION...AND IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL PVA SHIFTING ACROSS W-CENTRAL NY AT 1445Z. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN ARRIVING IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 15-16Z...AND EWD ACROSS VT 16-19Z. MOISTURE ADEQUATE WITH AROUND 1.10" OF PRECIPITABLE WATER (125% OF NORMAL) ADVECTED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS LOCATED NEAR BUFFALO NY AT 15Z. ALL SPELLS A RAINY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO GOING WITH AN AVG OF 0.25" TO 0.50" OF TOTAL RAINFALL. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, ADIRONDACKS, AND GREEN MOUNTAIN. A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF VT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHEN IT STARTS RAINING, IT LOOKS COOLEST OVER NY AND WARMEST IN THE VT CT VALLEY. EXPECTING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH COOLEST READINGS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH MAX READINGS THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY WEST TO EAST THEN TO WETBULB DOWN TO 46-52 AFTER THE RAIN STARTS. AFTER A TEMP FORECAST BUST AND A FEW NEW RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS SET YESTERDAY AS CLOUDS HELD TOUGH AND BUSTED OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST BY 6-7 DEGREES. AT BTV WE ONLY REACHED 56, MPV 52, MSS 54, 1V4 55. RECORD LOW MAXS TODAY ARE 52 AT BTV, 50 AT MSS, 54 AT MPV, AND 55 AT ST. J. IT COULD BE CLOSE. WIND GRADUALLY PICK UP TODAY FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND COULD GUST TO 20 OR 30 IN THE MOUNTAIN GAPS OR DOWNSLOPE PRONE AREAS ESPECIALLY LATE AFT/EVE WHEN 40 KT LOW LEVEL WIND MAX PASSES THROUGH. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 450 AM EDT SATURDAY...AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO SATURDAY EVENING WILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FACING UPSLOPE REGION IN NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. THINKING RIGHT NOW THAT ENOUGH FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION TO KEEP A LOT OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST, BUT THERE MIGHT BE SOME DEVELOP WHERE CLEARING TAKES PLACE. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S. COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER AREA FROM SUNDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER TROF OVERHEAD. CLOUDS COULD BE STUBBORN TO CLEAR OUT AGAIN MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH MOIST 925 MB RH AND FLOW BLOCKED BY THE MOUNTAINS AND CAPPED BY A STRONG INVERSION AROUND 4000 FT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND BELOW NORMAL WITH 925 TEMPS 4-8C WITH AND HIGHS IN 50S MOST PLACES TO LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST. SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BE TRICKY ESPECIALLY WITH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT. IF THEY DO, IT COULD BE A FROSTY NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE USUAL VALLEY SPOTS. LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. MONDAY SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY AGAIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIPPING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. 925 TEMPS RISE TO 9-11C SO MOST OF US WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 513 AM EDT SATURDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HAVING RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. BOTH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING DRY BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. THEREAFTER SHOWERS EXIT BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MVFR CIGS BY 18Z SUN. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SUNDAY-12Z TUESDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG AT SLK AND MPV. 12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. 00Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...VFR && .MARINE... LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COLCHESTER REEF AT 18Z OBS GUSTING UP TO 26 KTS. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS RUNNING 25 TO 35 KTS...SHOWING UP NICELY IN KCXX WSR-88D VAD WINDS. HI RESOLUTION MODELS FORECAST 25-35 KT WIND JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO CONTINUE UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WITH WARM WATER TEMPERATURES AND COOL AIR TEMPS WILL GET CONVECTIVE MIXING OVER THE LAKE TO BRING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE. WIND SHIFT TO ARRIVE NEAR 00Z WITH DECREASE IN WIND SPEED...BUT WILL STILL BE 15-25 KTS. WIND SPEEDS FINALLY DIMINISH AFTER 12Z. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...BANACOS/SISSON SHORT TERM...SISSON LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH/SLW MARINE...HANSON

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