Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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623 FXUS61 KBTV 232309 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 709 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A departing low pressure across eastern Quebec will allow for continued clearing this evening, along with diminishing wind speeds. A secondary trough moving into the region from the northwest late Monday into Monday night will bring a chance of light rain showers, with snow showers possible across the northern Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains. A more significant wave of low pressure approaching from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will bring the next chance for rain, generally late Thursday, Thursday night, into early Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 709 PM EDT Sunday...Mostly clear skies continue across most of the North Country early this evening with a west-northwest gradient wind around 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. However, a mid-level shortwave trough and associated weak surface low over the eastern Great Lakes is already beginning to overspread low to mid-level cloud cover across the central Adirondacks and western NY state. These clouds are associated with 925-700 mb warm thermal advection and will continue to advance east-southeast, tending to be the lowest and thickest across southern Vermont and into southern St. Lawrence, Franklin and Essex Counties in New York. Mostly clear to a few high clouds anticipated elsewhere in the overnight. No significant changes were made to the forecast except to account for current observations and to lower dewpoints by a few degrees. Lows in the 30s still appear on track, trending coldest in northeast Vermont, the Adirondacks, and at elevations above 1000` with a fresh snow pack. Previous near-term discussion issued at 337 PM Sunday follows... See summary public information statement and local storm report for reports on snowfall yesterday through this morning. At mid- afternoon, Lingering light flurries/sprinkles have generally ended across the Northeast Kingdom. Strong low- level drying underway, and has allowed for mostly clear skies to develop from the Champlain Valley wwd...and also across s-central VT. Should gradually see sunny breaks develop across n-central and nern VT late this aftn. Afternoon highs generally upr 40s to lower 50s for the Champlain/St. Lawrence and CT river valleys. Elsewhere, steep lapse rates (and clouds across n-central/nern VT yielding colder readings in the low-mid 40s most locations. Gradient flow will remain moderately strong through sunset, as 980mb sfc low across ern Quebec slowly fills while drifting ewd north of the St. Lawrence Valley tonight. Will keep 15-25mph with a few gusts to 35mph next 1-3 hrs, before gradually diminishing with slow weakening of p-gradient and loss of steep lapse rates as PBL cooling occurs toward sunset. Generally quiet conditions tonight. A minor shortwave trough in fast WNW flow 700-500mb layer will pass to our south across the srn tier of NY and PA. This will yield some increase in mid-level clouds, especially across the srn half of the forecast area. That said, associated light pcpn should remain south of our area. West winds continue 5-10 mph overnight, which will mitigate radiative cooling and keep overnight lows mainly mid-upr 30s, except low 30s in the 1-2kft elevational band. Generally quiet weather expected Monday. Broad cyclonic flow remains in place aloft, and it appears we`ll have another surge of low-level CAA and possible passage of weak mid-level shortwave trough. Shallow instability layer will produce clouds by afternoon and possible light upslope precipitation into the Adirondacks and nrn Green mtns. Freezing levels generally 2000-2500ft, so can`t rule out some flurries down to about 1000ft in elevation Monday aftn, especially wrn slopes. May see passing sprinkles in the valley locations, and kept PoPs generally less than 20%. High temps generally low-mid 40s, except upr 40s near Lake Champlain and with downslope warning effects across ern Windsor county/VSF area. Winds will be W-NW winds 8-15kts with gusts developing in the afternoon with presence of steeper lapse rates. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 302 PM EDT Sunday...Cold, cyclonic flow continues across area with still a few spokes of energy flowing across northern areas for fall/winter like chance of mtn sprinkles/flurries during this period. The influence of this trof weakens Wed. It will be unseasonably cold with highs in the 30s/40s and lows in the 20s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 302 PM EDT Sunday...Trof axis sliding east on Wednesday with lessening influence and some shortwave ridging going into Wed ngt before another shortwave in overall NW flow pattern impacts our region late Thu thru Fri. Slowly increasing sunshine on Wed but cold with Highs only in 30s/40s with high pressure Wed ngt for a chilly one with lows in teens/20s. Morning sunshine will try to offset chilly temperatures with clouds advancing with the next system previously advertised. Precipitation shouldn`t threaten western zones until 18z or later and VT aft 21z Thu. Ptype should be mainly liquid with some mixed rain/snow in highest elevations. Highs in the 40s. Surface low and accompanying front should be across VT by 12z Fri and moving east out of area thus wettest in ern VT during morning with leftover shoer threat in upslope terrain Fri and Fri ngt. Mildest day of stretch with highs around 50 degrees. Thereafter...NW flow persists but their are difference between ECMWF/GFS with another disturbance in the flow or not. GFS..Yes while ECMWF does not. WPC has this feature...cold front as well as our Superblend ensemble thus will go for chance of showers Sat and dry for Sun although confidence is lower in this timeframe. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Through 00z Tuesday...Generally VFR conditions through the evening across the TAFs. Potential for intervals of MVFR/VFR ceilings generally after 05z at RUT and SLK as a frontal system passes to the southeast. Winds will remain northwest 8-12 kts through 12z Monday, with gusts to 21 kts gradually abating by 03z. Variable VFR cloudiness anticipated for at least the first part of Monday. A mid-level trough in the northwest flow aloft traverses the TAFs later in the day, resulting in a gradual lower of ceilings to VFR/MVFR, particularly in the Greens and Adirondacks. Possibility of rain/higher elevation snow showers toward 00z Tuesday as well but for now have left out of the TAFs. Northwest winds 10-12 kts with gusts to 24 kts during the day. Outlook 00z Tuesday through Friday... 00z Tuesday through 00z Wednesday: Broad upper trough in place bringing variable cloudiness. Generally VFR ceilings, with possible MVFR showers and higher elevation snow showers late Monday afternoon through Tuesday vcnty of the nrn Mts. Increasing chances for MVFR ceilings at MPV/SLK later Monday night through Tuesday, with periods of light precipitation and MVFR cigs/vsby conditions. 00Z Wednesday through 00Z Saturday: Next low pressure system approaching from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley brings chances for widespread showers and periods of MVFR conditions late Thursday through the first half of Friday. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos/Loconto SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...Banacos/Loconto is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.