Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 130921 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 421 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA...BRINGING WITH IT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS. MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THROUGH SUNDAY. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM BRINGING POTENTIAL MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 420 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE SEEN SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT PASSES. ALSO SEEING WINDS TURN TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY...AND SHOW WILL BE ENDING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY...THEREFORE DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ACHIEVED EARLY...THEN SEE DROPPING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN NEW YORK HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW ZERO IN SOME PLACES. SAME SCENARIO FOR TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO RIDGE OVER THE AREA...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. WE CONTINUE WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BOTH OF THESE PERIODS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -30C SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SITTING OVER THE REGION, DEPARTING MOISTURE AND DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECT AIR TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO 15 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS OF 8-15KTS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES -30 TO -40 DEGREES WITH COLDER WIND CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO AROUND -20C ON SUNDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST, PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO MODERATING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY, COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WARM WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAY RESULT IN TEA KETTLING STEAM CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT BTV DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE COLD BY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS WITH DECREASING WINDS. SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT...REMAINING BELOW ZERO. MONDAY CONTINUES TO SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES NEARING NORMAL IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY... MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK DIGGING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT FORMS LATE MONDAY...TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW TRACK AND RESULTING PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 12Z GFS TRACKS SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING NH ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS ENSEMBLES MEAN SIMILAR WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVER VT/EASTERN VT. 12Z ECWMF SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN, KEEPING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK WITH THE LOW MOVING IN THE WESTERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SIMILARITIES...PRECIP MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWAT ANOMALIES IN EXCESS OF 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL RESULT IN STORM TOTAL QPF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. ANY WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HOLDS OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...MEANING PRECIP WILL START AS SNOW. MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT PTYPE. GFS WITH THE MORE EASTERLY TRACK KEEPS COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND WARMER AIR IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST. WHILE 850MB AND 925MB ZERO DEGREE LINES ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER THROUGHOUT THE EVENT ON THE GFS...SOME WINTRY MIX/ICING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS ARCTIC TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THIS EVENT WILL LEAD TO FROZEN GROUND. ECWMF ON THE OTHER HAND MOVES THE WARM AIR WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...BUT PERSISTENT NE FLOW DOWN INTO THE VALLEY WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL/NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING. THIS COULD BE THE SET UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT. SO WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS YET TO BE RESOLVED BY THE MODELS WHAT WE CAN EXPECT IS A VERY MOIST STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE FALLING INTO THE 970-980MB RANGE AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL START AS SNOW WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING WINTRY MIX DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS SOUTHERLY JET AT 850MB WITH SPEEDS GREATER THAN 50KTS ENTERS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM, STRONG NW WINDS TAKE OVER AT 30-45KTS. WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE DEPARTING NORTH AND EAST WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...EXPECT A SHORT-DURATION (AN HOUR OR LESS) VISIBILITY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH A GUSTY WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST. SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFIC TIMING, BUT IS GENERALLY IN THE 06-08Z WINDOW. MORE RAPID CLEARING TOWARD VFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 08Z, THOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 18Z SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. && .CLIMATE... COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FEBRUARY 13TH FOR OUR CLIMATE SITES... BTV -25 1967 MPV -29 1967 MSS -33 1967 SJBV1 -30 1967 MMNV1 -32 1967 COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY 14TH)... BTV -2 1979 MPV -4 1979 MSS -3 1987 SJBV1 +2 1987 MMNV1 -19 1979 COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY 14TH)... BTV -19 1987 MPV -19 2003 MSS -29 2003 SJBV1 -28 2003 MMNV1 -30 1979 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ001>012- 016>019. NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034- 035-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...NEILES CLIMATE...LOCONTO

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