Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 210217 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1017 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1017 PM EDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. MOST OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME MID LVL CLOUDS. EXPECT DRY NIGHT WITH LGT TO CALM WINDS RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. MID LVL CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVER...BUT MAY NOT FULLY ABATE AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LVL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MONDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE M50S-L60S IN THE VALLEYS AND L-M50S IN PORTIONS OF THE NEK AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE AREA DURING THE MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...INTERACTING WITH AMPLE SURFACE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOPMENT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ANALYSIS OF SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...BUT WITH PROGGED PWATS AROUND 150-175% ABOVE NORMAL CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. 3 DAYS OUT THERE`S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE ABOVE FEATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WHERE THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED A LITTLE MORE. HAVE INDICATED A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF CONVECTION LIKELY AT ANY ONE LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...BUT IN REALITY IT WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1-3 HOURS. WE`LL DIAL IT IN OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS SO STAY TUNED. GOING INTO THURSDAY...LEANING MORE ON THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE MORNING. CONDITIONS TREND DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS...THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY EACH DAY WITH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60. ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MAY AFFECT KMSS THROUGH 02Z. TRICKY FORECAST FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND KSLK WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN QUESTION...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND RISING DEWPOINTS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IFR FROM 08-12Z. ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHC AT KSLK. WINDS SSW 5-10 KTS. OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 00Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR. 12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING. 00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...RJS

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