Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 250820 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 420 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Clouds and moisture from a low pressure area along the mid Atlantic coast will move north into the region today, with rain showers developing across the North Country this afternoon and tonight. Rain showers will continue tonight and into Wednesday. Expecting partly to mostly cloudy skies Wednesday night. Thursday will see warmer temperatures with highs in the 70s under partly sunny skies. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 418 AM EDT Tuesday...Clouds and moisture will be on the increase today from a low pressure area along the mid Atlantic coast. Bufkit forecast soundings show fairly dry conditions in the lower portion of the atmosphere today, so it will take a while to saturate the lower layers. Skies should start out partly sunny today, with increasing cloudiness the through the day. Expecting rain showers to develop later this afternoon and continue into tonight. Have gone with mainly chance pops for today and with likely or categorical pops for tonight for rain showers. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 418 AM EDT Tuesday...Expecting rain showers to continue into Wednesday morning as the closed upper low and the surface low will be coincident with each other south of Long Island New York Wednesday morning. This low will then move east and be over Cape Cod Wednesday night. Expecting the North country to be partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday night, but remaining dry. Models showing upper ridge to build into the region by late Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 420 AM EDT Tuesday...Not much change in the forecast but overall active period during the long term. The period will start off dry as rain showers associated with coastal low continue to move east. Some lingering clouds may limit warming over eastern Vermont, but generally expect temperatures in the 70s. Thursday night into Friday will have chance for showers and possible thunderstorms that are expected to move west to east across the North Country as a long wave 500mb trough becomes negatively titled over Ontario, extending into the eastern Great Lakes. Reflected at the surface, a front boundary will provide the lift for these showers...clearing the area by Friday night. Heading into the weekend, a Bermuda high looks to develop at the surface and aloft. Several areas of vorticity at 500mb will move from SW towards southern Quebec and possibly impact the North Country through Saturday night. On Sunday, Canadian high pressure centered around James Bay will retreat north and east as strengthening closed surface low moves northward from Texas towards the western Great Lakes by late Sunday. A warm front ahead of the low looks to bring more showers by Sunday night. GFS and ECMWF still show differences on evolution and track of this system, but strong low level jet associated with cold front will create good moisture plume from the Gulf of Mexico northward. Expect this cold front to move into the North Country sometime Monday. Overall expect this system to be capable of producing heavy rainfall and strong winds from tight pressure gradient and strengthening of low. Also, thunderstorm activity expected ahead and along the cold front as GFS indicates 500-1000 J/kg in the St Lawrence Valley and negative lifted indices. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected through 00Z Wednesday. Satellite loop and surface observations showing mainly high cirrus clouds across the region at this time (06Z Tuesday). Expecting ceilings to slowly lower through the day. Bufkit forecast soundings showing fairly dry conditions across the region, so it will likely take a while to saturate the lower levels of the atmosphere. Expecting any rain shower activity will likely not reach the surface until late this afternoon or this evening. Expecting mainly MVFR conditions in rain showers after 00Z Wednesday. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...TSRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...WGH/SLW

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