Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBTV 250820
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
420 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017
Clouds and moisture from a low pressure area along the mid
Atlantic coast will move north into the region today, with rain
showers developing across the North Country this afternoon
and tonight. Rain showers will continue tonight and into
Wednesday. Expecting partly to mostly cloudy skies Wednesday
night. Thursday will see warmer temperatures with highs in the
70s under partly sunny skies.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 418 AM EDT Tuesday...Clouds and moisture will be on the
increase today from a low pressure area along the mid Atlantic
coast. Bufkit forecast soundings show fairly dry conditions in
the lower portion of the atmosphere today, so it will take a
while to saturate the lower layers. Skies should start out
partly sunny today, with increasing cloudiness the through the
day. Expecting rain showers to develop later this afternoon and
continue into tonight. Have gone with mainly chance pops for
today and with likely or categorical pops for tonight for rain
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 418 AM EDT Tuesday...Expecting rain showers to continue
into Wednesday morning as the closed upper low and the surface
low will be coincident with each other south of Long Island New
York Wednesday morning. This low will then move east and be over
Cape Cod Wednesday night. Expecting the North country to be
partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday night, but remaining dry.
Models showing upper ridge to build into the region by late
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 420 AM EDT Tuesday...Not much change in the forecast but
overall active period during the long term. The period will
start off dry as rain showers associated with coastal low
continue to move east. Some lingering clouds may limit warming
over eastern Vermont, but generally expect temperatures in the
Thursday night into Friday will have chance for showers and
possible thunderstorms that are expected to move west to east
across the North Country as a long wave 500mb trough becomes
negatively titled over Ontario, extending into the eastern Great
Lakes. Reflected at the surface, a front boundary will provide
the lift for these showers...clearing the area by Friday night.
Heading into the weekend, a Bermuda high looks to develop at
the surface and aloft. Several areas of vorticity at 500mb will
move from SW towards southern Quebec and possibly impact the
North Country through Saturday night.
On Sunday, Canadian high pressure centered around James Bay
will retreat north and east as strengthening closed surface low
moves northward from Texas towards the western Great Lakes by
late Sunday. A warm front ahead of the low looks to bring more
showers by Sunday night. GFS and ECMWF still show differences on
evolution and track of this system, but strong low level jet
associated with cold front will create good moisture plume from
the Gulf of Mexico northward. Expect this cold front to move
into the North Country sometime Monday. Overall expect this
system to be capable of producing heavy rainfall and strong
winds from tight pressure gradient and strengthening of low.
Also, thunderstorm activity expected ahead and along the cold
front as GFS indicates 500-1000 J/kg in the St Lawrence Valley
and negative lifted indices.
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected through
00Z Wednesday. Satellite loop and surface observations showing
mainly high cirrus clouds across the region at this time (06Z
Tuesday). Expecting ceilings to slowly lower through the day.
Bufkit forecast soundings showing fairly dry conditions across
the region, so it will likely take a while to saturate the lower
levels of the atmosphere. Expecting any rain shower activity
will likely not reach the surface until late this afternoon or
this evening. Expecting mainly MVFR conditions in rain showers
after 00Z Wednesday.
Wednesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.