Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 282026 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 326 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 326 PM EST SATURDAY...OTHER THAN SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS COMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND MOVING ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK TONIGHT... LOOKING AT RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW IT TO NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 326 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. WARM FRONT...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SUPPORT FOR THE SNOW. THESE FEATURES ARE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND NOT VERY STRONG...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES FOR THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. AGAIN MAIN TIME FOR THIS SNOW WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW FROM THIS EVENT. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THE SNOW QUICKLY TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...DRY AND COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 20S. THE HIGH WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR TO STREAM INTO FORECAST AREA. GFS INDICATING A DEEPER SURFACE LOW AND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING THAN ECMWF. GFS DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +4C WITH ECMWF BARELY ABOVE 0C. THE ANSWER LIKELY LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS SNOW EVERYWHERE...THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR .75 INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET WILL RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS...AND ENHANCED PRECIPITATION IN OTHERS. DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEADY MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO JUST RAIN IN MANY LOCALES BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS REGION AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN. WITH UPPER TROUGH LAGGING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WAVE FORMATION ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. AFTER A MILD DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...ITS BACK TO BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 20S. COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND FOR THE MOST PART LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY AT TIMES AT MSS/SLK TODAY. TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START BUILDING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SUNDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR. 00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS/DEAL

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