Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 252330 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 730 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Gusty downslope winds will continue into this evening, especially across the southern and central western slopes of the Green Mountains with isolated power outages possible. Steadier rain will redevelop late tonight and continue into Friday. The upcoming weekend will feature a dry Saturday with some scattered showers possible late Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 649 PM EDT Thursday...Have maintained the wind advisory along the western slopes of the Green Mtns for now, though wind gusts likely reached their peaked 1-2 hrs ago in most sections. Still seeing localized strong winds, including ESE gusts to 37kts at Wells, VT in western Rutland County. Likely will be able to cancel before the 4Z expiration time, and will continue to monitor thru the evening. Center of slow-moving/closed 500mb low is located across wrn PA at 2250Z. There is a dry slot moving nwd into our region on the ern periphery of the low center, and with that much of the steady rain is along the intl border and continuing to track to the north. Have shown a relative min in PoPs (30% or so) over the next several hrs, though there are still some scattered showers across the Capital District of NY and wrn MA. It continues to appear that a shortwave trough/700mb vort rounding the base of the mid-level trough will result in a deepening sfc low across the south coast of New England during the pre-dawn hrs, with strengthening cold conveyor belt resulting in precipitation filling back in across the North Country after 09Z. Thus, PoPs do ramp back up to 80-90% as we head toward daybreak on Friday, with an additional 0.25-0.5" rainfall likely (highest across far ern VT). Temperatures will remain mild overnight with min temps only in the 50s with plenty of clouds and occasional showers and redeveloping rain late. By Friday morning the low pressure system will be over Cape Cod and continue to move Northeastward into the Gulf of Maine by 00z. Rain showers will continue through the day Friday, though gradually decreasing in coverage and intensity from west to east through the day. Heaviest precipitation for our forecast area will be over Eastern Vermont, closest to the actual low center. Chances for precipitation will diminish from west to east during the afternoon hours. Maximum temperatures will be cool, generally in the 50s across the area. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 PM EDT Thursday...Vertically stacked low pressure system near Nova Scotia Friday evening moves east and out to sea overnight Friday night. Some lingering light rain showers or drizzle early will gradually dry up from west to east with some gradual clearing by Sat morning. Lows mainly in the 50s. Saturday will see weak surface high pressure build in to start the Memorial Day weekend. Partly cloudy skies and 850 temps of 8-10C will yield warmer temperatures with highs 70s. Lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 350 PM EDT Thursday... The long term starts out on Sunday with an upper level ridge over the east coast with a developing light southwest flow at the surface as weak high pressure moves out to sea east of New England. 850mb temps are around 10-11C which should yield high temps in the 70s perhaps upper 70s in the valleys. As the ridge shifts east, cloud cover increases in the afternoon and evening as an upper level low pressure system tracks west of the Great Lakes with warm advection during the overnight hours into early Memorial day with a period of showers. A weak cold front Monday evening trough will swing through with shortwave energy, bringing with it showers with perhaps a thunderstorm or two with some marginal instability. Tuesday through Thursday there will be on and off mainly afternoon and evening showers as a second cold front and several post frontal trofs swing through the region. Cold advection will bring 850mb temps down from 8-10C on Tue to around 6C Wed and 4C on Thu. The cold advection and daytime heating will contribute to very weak instability and scattered showers. Corresponding high temperatures will be start out in the 70s on Tue falling back into the 60s Wed and Thu. Lows will in the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Through 00Z Saturday...Mainly MVFR/IFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours as coastal low moves through the region. Some easterly LLWS to 40 kts possible through 06Z but should be confined to areas generally east of primary forecast terminals. Cigs a mix of VFR/MVFR at 00Z, trending bodily MVFR by 06Z and IFR/LIFR after 12Z Friday. Cigs may lift slightly at valley terminals such as KPBG and KBTV after 18Z Friday but confidence only moderate of this actually occurring. Easterly flow, occasionally gusty to 25 kt early will back to northeast overnight while slowly abating, then prevailing north/northeasterly at 06-12 kts with moderate gusts after 12Z Friday. Scattered to numerous showers will continue overnight before becoming more widespread after 12Z Friday as deeper moisture pivots around departing coastal system. Outlook... Friday Night: Trending MVFR/VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Memorial Day: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: VFR. Likely SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VTZ011-017>019. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Banacos/Neiles SHORT TERM...Sisson LONG TERM...Sisson AVIATION...JMG

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