Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 210553 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 153 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A sunny start is expected for the North Country today...but the threat of some showers or storms will exist this afternoon... especially over northeast New York and the northern third of Vermont. Any showers or storms come to an end this evening and a dry day is expected for Saturday. Eventually we will transition to a wetter pattern Sunday into Monday. Expect one more day of above normal temperatures today...then a transition to at or below normal temperatures for the weekend and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 153 AM EDT Friday...Overall forecast in good shape with little change needed. Did lower sky cover as satellite shows clear skies over the area. Any cloud development early this morning would be tied to where fog may try and develop. Otherwise no other changes needed at this time. Previous Discussion... There will be a trough moving across eastern Canada on Friday and we should see some increase in dynamic support and combined with additional forcing from the higher terrain and sufficient instability. Because of that cannot rule out the possibility of some very isolated showers or thunderstorms, mainly over the northern Adirondacks and the Northern third of Vermont. Again this activity would be weak and disorganized. Overnight Friday, high pressure takes hold again leading to another dry and quiet night. High temperatures Friday will generally be in the upper 70s to mid 80s while lows for Thursday and Friday will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 314 PM EDT Thursday...Looking for a relatively dry day on Saturday with west-northwesterly mid-level flow and weak sfc high pressure in place across NY and New England. Low-level wind fields are quite weak with flat p-gradient, so winds areawide should be less than 10 mph. The 850mb temps per 12z GFS/ECMWF are near +13C at BTV at 18Z Saturday, and with partly to mostly sunny conditions, should see daytime highs in the low-mid 80s. Can`t completely rule out a terrain driven shower/isold tstm...especially vcnty of the nrn Adirondacks. There is a slight chance mention (PoPs 15-20%) in the official forecast during the mid aftn thru early evening period as a result. Low pressure tracking ewd across the srn Great Lakes region will be associated with ewd extending frontal zone, with developing zone of 850-700mb warm advection across the srn half of the forecast area during Saturday night. Some NWP differences with 12Z GFS showing associated showers and WAA further north across our region, with 12z ECMWF suppressed further south. At this point, included 30-40% PoPs mainly late Saturday night for showers and chance for an embedded elevated thunderstorm. Will see continued chances for showers and isold thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday night, generally 20-40% PoPs Sunday and 50-60% PoPs Sunday night with highest PoPs across the srn half of our forecast area. During this time frame, E-W baroclinic zone will be situated across central NY into central New England, with weak sfc low tracking ewd along the frontal zone. It appears that better upper level support arrives Sunday night into Monday with shortwave trough approaching from sern Ontario. 12Z GFS model soundings at KRUT Sunday night indicate elevated instability around 500 J/kg, so maintained slight chance thunderstorms thru the overnight period. Should see high temps mid-upr 70s Sunday, and upr 50s to around 60F for Sunday night with mostly cloudy skies expected. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 314 PM EDT Thursday...Mid-level shortwave trough tracks ewd thru the area Monday into Monday night, with continued chances for showers. Abundant clouds likely Monday, keeping daytime highs in the low-mid 70s. Should trend toward cooler and drier weather mid-week as shortwave trough moves east of our longitude later Monday night or Tuesday. Should see highs in the mid 70s Tue/Wed. Kept lingering 30% PoPs Tuesday and down 10% or less into Wed/Thu. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...Overall looking at VFR conditions through the period. The only exception will be at KSLK and KMPV where periods of IFR conditions may exist through 12z due to low clouds and fog. Some wind does exist just off the surface and this may limit the areal extent of fog early this morning. A front will move toward the region this afternoon and we will see winds become more west with time at speeds around 10 knots before tapering off after 00z. With the front there may be the potential for some showers/storms over northeast New York and the northern third of Vermont between 18z and 00z...but still looking at VFR conditions as any showers or storms will be isolated in nature. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA. Monday Night: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/Verasamy SHORT TERM...Banacos LONG TERM...Banacos AVIATION...Evenson

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