Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 200612 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 212 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system will move east across the North Country overnight bring rain showers to the region. A weak ridge of high pressure will build south from Canada on Thursday, but skies will remain mostly cloudy. A low pressure area will move east from the Great Lakes on Thursday and will bring more rain to the North Country Thursday night and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1138 PM EDT Wednesday...Rain showers have largely exited east of Vermont at 03Z, with just isold --RW remaining as cold front pushes esewd into the St. Lawrence Valley. S-SW gradient flow remains moderately strong late this evening ahead of the frontal bndry, with gusts to 35 mph still possible next 1-2 hrs in the Champlain Valley. NAM model soundings indicate that winds will gradually subside overnight as sfc bndry approaches from the west and p-gradient slackens. Also, anticipate plenty of lingering low- level moisture with low overcast and patchy drizzle in spots overnight. Winds will shift into the north toward daybreak following frontal passage. Temperatures will not change much overnight, with lows generally 40-45F, with a few upr 30s across the nrn Adirondacks. On Thursday, models show a weak ridge of high pressure will build south from Canada. However, skies will remain mostly cloudy as there will be plenty of low level moisture lingering over the region. Expecting highs to be mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s with northerly winds. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 PM EDT Wednesday...Models have continued trend from yesterday in slowing the arrival of rain from a low pressure area over the Great Lakes until later Thursday night. Have gone with categorical pops for Thursday night and Friday. Expecting rain to taper off to showers later Friday night. Models showing somewhat less QPF than previous runs, with 0.50 to 0.75 inches of rain expected from Thursday night through Friday. Will need to keep an eye on this to see how areas rivers and Lake Champlain responds to this rainfall. This rain fall could bring Lake Champlain into minor flood later Friday or Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 358 PM EDT Wednesday...Long term continues to look rather quiet with rather minimal weather throughout the period. Saturday will see an upper trough pass through leading to some isolated showers, mainly in the higher terrain, during the day and into the early evening. Sunday will see the shift to drier conditions as high pressure builds into the region. Early Monday morning will see the southern edge of a shortwave trough from an associated Hudson Bay Low swing through bringing a brief period of very isolated showers across the northern zones and higher terrain. Once the trough passes high pressure sets back in and weather again becomes dry and quiet to end the period. Average high temperatures for the period will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s trending the low 60`s by the end of the period. Overnight lows are expected to be in the upper 30s to low 40s. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Through 06Z Friday...MVFR/IFR conditions will largely prevail through the overnight hours, briefly improving to VFR during the afternoon and early evening hours before degrading again as our next system and steady rainfall moves in from the west after 00Z. Variable winds overnight shift to the north/northwest after 12Z, and eventually east/southeast after 00Z. Outlook... Friday: VFR/MVFR. Breezy. Likely RA. Friday Night: VFR/MVFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR/MVFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR/MVFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...SHSN. Monday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... aS OF 355 pm edt Wednesday...Expecting somewhat light QPF with the frontal system moving through overnight. Models now hinting that there will be less QPF for THursday night and FRiday with 0.50 to 0.75 inches of rain expected by early Friday evening. There are a few concerns on area rivers/streams/lakes which continue to run high with continued higher elevation snowmelt, albeit a bit slower lately due to seasonal temperature. A few northern gages could reach action and minor flood stage by Friday afternoon. Lake Champlain continues to creep ever so slowly closer to flood stage (100 feet) every day, and expect minor flooding to occur by this weekend, while rivers of greatest concern to reach minor flood stage are the Ausable, Barton, Winooski, Mad, and Missisquoi at this time. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...Banacos/WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...MV AVIATION...Lahiff HYDROLOGY...WGH/Lahiff

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