Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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471 FXUS61 KBTV 230305 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1005 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Northwest winds will usher in colder air with partial clearing overnight tonight. Thanksgiving will feature fair weather with partly to mostly cloudy conditions and chilly temperatures, as surface high pressure builds across New York and New England. Afternoon highs on Thanksgiving day will generally reach the low to mid 30s. Fair weather will continue on Friday with moderating temperatures. The next chance for widespread showers, mainly in the form of rain, will be Saturday with another cold front crossing the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 1005 PM EST Wednesday...Colder air continues to move into the region tonight. The air is drier as well...but has been slow to erode any of the clouds. Have adjusted sky cover to keep more clouds around overnight...especially in the mountains. Otherwise rest of forecast in good shape. Previous Discussion... Trending toward quieter weather conditions late this aftn/evening. The 850-700mb frontogenetic forcing is beginning to weaken and shift ewd across central/eastern VT with precipitation ending as expected at 1830Z across the Champlain Valley. Developing NW flow in the wake of the sfc front will result in some continued orographic snow shower activity across the nrn Adirondacks and Green Mtns through the first half of tonight. Maintained mention of -SHSN across the nrn mtns through 06Z or so tonight. Otherwise, visible satellite imagery showing some upstream clearing across the Ottawa Valley of Ontario. Should see a few breaks this evening and overnight away from upslope mtn areas. Moderately strong sfc-850mb CAA expected, and associated steep lapse rates will promote some sfc wind gusts 15-25 mph mainly 22-06Z. Thereafter, ridge axis building ewd across nrn NY will result in gradually diminishing wind speeds. Will result in relatively cold overnight lows, mainly in the teens to low 20s, except mid 20s in the vicinity of Lake Champlain with the moderating influence of the relatively warm lake waters (still 48F at the King Street ferry dock). Chilly and quiet weather conditions for traveling on Thanksgiving Day. High RH 700-500mb layer should maintain some SCT-BKN mid- level clouds, but should see light winds and highs in the low-mid 30s. Winds will turn light south by afternoon. As ridge axis moves to the east and shortwave trough grazes the intl border, it appears that developing low-level SW 850mb flow may allow a few flurries or snow showers to develop off of Lake Ontario into srn St. Lawrence and Franklin counties. This would mainly be 23Z Thu thru 06Z Fri. Could see a dusting to 0.5" in spots, especially NY Route 3 corridor around Star Lake/Wanakena. Low temperatures on Thursday night expected mid-upr 20s, perhaps near 30F in srn St. Lawrence County with greater wind/cloud cover.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 322 PM EST Wednesday...Pretty much quiet zonal flow across the region with surface high across Mid-Atlantic states nosing a bit into the region. We`ll likely see filtered sunshine with moderating temperatures in the L40s and dry for Black Friday shoppers. Energy of next northern stream shortwave to our north as it approaches for Saturday with associated cold front. The timing looks like any precipitation will hold off til early morning hours of Saturday. It will be cold enough Friday night for some -shsn mixed with -shra when precipitation arrives early Sat morning with lows in the 20s/30s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 322 PM EST Wednesday...Aforementioned cold front swings through Saturday with little fanfare as largely moisture starved and on the heels of this leading shortwave is another short wave Sat ngt-Sun to deepen the trough across the northeast and bring more instability snow showers on Sunday. There may be some isold/sct traveling issues come Sunday with the mountain snow showers but nothing widespread or significant. By Monday...trough exits with ridging developing in response to developing deep trof in the Rockies that will eventually lift across the Great Lakes and eventually our area by late next week. High pressure positioned to our south and SW flow at all levels means another warm up. It will still be chilly on Monday but then we`re under the influence of southwest flow thru mid week with temperatures in the 40s and possible 50s by mid week. By Wednesday, discrepancies in handling the Rockies system with GFS less developed and quickly ejecting toward the east, while ECMWF has a more developed system with slower movement toward our area with Canadian closer to GFS. WPC shows warm frontal lifting Tue Ngt/early Wed with front likely moving through late Wed and will play it as such. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00z Friday...VFR and MVFR ceilings continue across the area this evening with some clearing moving in from the northwest. This slow clearing trend will continue moving southeast overnight and should be looking at VFR conditions developing between 06z and 12z with limited cloud cover by 12z. Some increasing mid and high level clouds will move in after 18z...but VFR visibilities are expected. Mainly dry with just some light rain and snow showers through 03z at KRUT which will produce MVFR visibilities...otherwise VFR visibilities are expected at all locations through the period. Winds will continue to taper off from the northwest tonight and will become more southwest after 12z...but speeds generally under 10 knots. Outlook... Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .MARINE...
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A lake wind advisory is in effect as northwest winds will persist in the 15 to 25 knot range with gusts to 30 knots through midnight. The winds will gradually diminish toward morning. Until then rather choppy conditions will exist with waves of 2 to 4 feet.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos/Evenson SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...Evenson MARINE...Evenson

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