Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KBTV 200612
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
212 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017
A frontal system will move east across the North Country
overnight bring rain showers to the region. A weak ridge of high
pressure will build south from Canada on Thursday, but skies
will remain mostly cloudy. A low pressure area will move east
from the Great Lakes on Thursday and will bring more rain to
the North Country Thursday night and Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1138 PM EDT Wednesday...Rain showers have largely exited
east of Vermont at 03Z, with just isold --RW remaining as cold
front pushes esewd into the St. Lawrence Valley. S-SW gradient
flow remains moderately strong late this evening ahead of the
frontal bndry, with gusts to 35 mph still possible next 1-2 hrs
in the Champlain Valley. NAM model soundings indicate that
winds will gradually subside overnight as sfc bndry approaches
from the west and p-gradient slackens. Also, anticipate plenty
of lingering low- level moisture with low overcast and patchy
drizzle in spots overnight. Winds will shift into the north
toward daybreak following frontal passage. Temperatures will
not change much overnight, with lows generally 40-45F, with a
few upr 30s across the nrn Adirondacks.
On Thursday, models show a weak ridge of high pressure will
build south from Canada. However, skies will remain mostly
cloudy as there will be plenty of low level moisture lingering
over the region. Expecting highs to be mainly in the upper 40s
to lower 50s with northerly winds.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 PM EDT Wednesday...Models have continued trend from
yesterday in slowing the arrival of rain from a low pressure
area over the Great Lakes until later Thursday night. Have gone
with categorical pops for Thursday night and Friday. Expecting
rain to taper off to showers later Friday night. Models showing
somewhat less QPF than previous runs, with 0.50 to 0.75 inches
of rain expected from Thursday night through Friday. Will need
to keep an eye on this to see how areas rivers and Lake
Champlain responds to this rainfall. This rain fall could bring
Lake Champlain into minor flood later Friday or Friday night.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 358 PM EDT Wednesday...Long term continues to look rather quiet
with rather minimal weather throughout the period. Saturday
will see an upper trough pass through leading to some isolated
showers, mainly in the higher terrain, during the day and into
the early evening. Sunday will see the shift to drier conditions
as high pressure builds into the region. Early Monday morning
will see the southern edge of a shortwave trough from an
associated Hudson Bay Low swing through bringing a brief period
of very isolated showers across the northern zones and higher
terrain. Once the trough passes high pressure sets back in and
weather again becomes dry and quiet to end the period.
Average high temperatures for the period will be in the upper 40s to
upper 50s trending the low 60`s by the end of the period. Overnight
lows are expected to be in the upper 30s to low 40s.
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Through 06Z Friday...MVFR/IFR conditions will largely prevail
through the overnight hours, briefly improving to VFR during
the afternoon and early evening hours before degrading again as
our next system and steady rainfall moves in from the west after
00Z. Variable winds overnight shift to the north/northwest after
12Z, and eventually east/southeast after 00Z.
Friday: VFR/MVFR. Breezy. Likely RA.
Friday Night: VFR/MVFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR/MVFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR/MVFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...SHSN.
Monday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
aS OF 355 pm edt Wednesday...Expecting somewhat light QPF with
the frontal system moving through overnight. Models now hinting
that there will be less QPF for THursday night and FRiday with
0.50 to 0.75 inches of rain expected by early Friday evening.
There are a few concerns on area rivers/streams/lakes which
continue to run high with continued higher elevation snowmelt,
albeit a bit slower lately due to seasonal temperature. A few
northern gages could reach action and minor flood stage by
Friday afternoon. Lake Champlain continues to creep ever so
slowly closer to flood stage (100 feet) every day, and expect
minor flooding to occur by this weekend, while rivers of
greatest concern to reach minor flood stage are the Ausable,
Barton, Winooski, Mad, and Missisquoi at this time.