Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 101449 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 949 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR WIND CHILL WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 948 AM EST WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT DID OPT TO INCREASE POPS WHERE IT`S BEEN SNOWING ALL MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE, REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT SO EXPECTING A STEADY BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT FOR MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. COULD SEE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY ROUNDING OUT THE BASE OF UPPER TROF. VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL HELP TO ENHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCE. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...THEREFORE HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND SOME CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREENS WHERE THESE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOST FAVORABLE. THURSDAY NIGHT POPS LOWER AS WE LOSE FAVORABLE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THOUGH. ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SURFACE LOW CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RUN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEENS TO AROUND 20 DURING THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN EVEN COLDER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND OUR REGION WILL BE THE COLDEST IT HAS BEEN YET THIS WINTER. WITH PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HAVE A POLAR VORTEX MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...850 TEMPS DROP TO ABOUT -30 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR PUSHES INTO OUR REGION WILL SEE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW SQUALLS ON TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PEAK OF THE COLDEST AIR IN PLACE AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD. AFTER TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS PLUMMET TO THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE COLD...FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATER SUNDAY WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILDING OVER THE REGION...POLAR VORTEX SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. AS GRADIENT PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP AS FAR AS THEY DID SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK START OUT WITH QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FROM MONDAY ONWARD...BOTH SHOWING A SYSTEM TO POTENTIALLY BRING A RAIN SNOW MIX TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM ONLY HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS GREATER EFFECTS FOR OUR AREA WITH A LOW PRESSURE TRACK CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOULD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW. MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. THUS...HAVE PUT IN VICINITY OF SNOW SHOWERS VCSH AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING OF SNOWFALL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BEST CHANCE FOR STEADY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM 19Z-21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 12Z THU - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY. 12Z SAT - 00Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH/LAHIFF SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

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