Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 280443 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1243 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1243 AM EDT TUESDAY...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL FOR BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT. SHOULD LAST ANOTHER 3 TO 4 HOURS AS WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF QUEBEC AND KEEPS THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT GOING TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE FORCING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 IN SOME SPOTS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT ON TUESDAY THE STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED MORE OVER EASTERN VERMONT. FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY AND YESTERDAY...MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND JET DYNAMICS LEAD TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN FEEL THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ON WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY HAVE SOME INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH BE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY, BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT, SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 06Z PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. TOMORROW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 05-10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING. 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES. 00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG/MV

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