Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 260759 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 359 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGIONS TODAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND COLDER BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 10AM-12PM BEFORE OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THERMALLY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS BEING A MOSTLY A RAIN OR SNOW EVENT WHERE THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ABOVE 2000` FEET AND THE VALLEYS SEEING MOSTLY RAIN INITIALLY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN BEFORE THE COLD AIR CAN FILTER IN. EXPECTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.10" TO 0.40" THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CORRESPONDING SNOW TOTALS ONLY SEEING 1-3" INCHES MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY... BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT WILL BE TRACKING EAST TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE PRECIP SHOULD STILL BE FALLING ALTHOUGH NOT HAS HEAVY AS DURING THE DAY TODAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A GOOD BAND OF FGEN FORCING BUT IT LOOKS A LITTLE BIT LATE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE REGION. THE HIGHEST FGEN VALUES OCCUR BETWEEN 00-03Z AND BY THAT TIME THE BULK OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST REGION. STORM TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.20"-0.70" SO THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH FLOODING IN THE SECONDARY RIVERS BUT OVERALL THE 2-4` FOOT RIVER RISES SHOULDN`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MAJOR ICE JAM PROBLEMS IN THE MAIN STREAM RIVERS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL RETURN TO UPPER 20`S TO LOW 30`S PREVENTING THE IDEALIZED 24 HOURS OF 42 DEGREES F OR HIGH NEEDED TO GET THE CLASSIC ICE JAM BREAKUP. ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WEAK POSITIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS. STILL DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BUT ITS POSSIBLE TO SEE 1-2" INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT MOSTLY BLOCKED FLOW ON FRIDAY SO THE OVER THE GREENS I TEMPERED THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL AND EXPECT THAT IF THERE ARE ANY SNOW SHOWERS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 1" INCH ON FRIDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT. ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE CROSSING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY AIR ALOFT. WITHOUT MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX WONT PRODUCE ANY PRECIP SO WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A COLD AND QUIET WEATHER DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL "WARM" INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, AND YES I USE THE TERM "WARM" LOOSELY THERE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A CONTINUED SURGE OF COLD AIR AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 339 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z FORECAST CYCLE...WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET EXTENDED FCST PERIOD ANTICIPATED. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BRINGS QUIET WX AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS...WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE MID- LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MAY SEE A PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTY S-SW SURFACE WINDS (GUSTS 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING P-GRADIENT. NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS LIMITED IN TERMS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW- MID 40S. A RETURN TO NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA...ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A COOLDOWN INTO TUE-WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S TUESDAY...AND GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN BKN-OVC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AT BTV/PBG/SLK/MSS WILL GENERALLY LESSEN TOWARD DAYBREAK AS P-GRADIENT STEADILY LESSENS THROUGH THE PRE- DAWN HOURS. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LOCALLY VFR WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AT PBG AND BTV. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL BE MONITORING NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF FRONTAL RAIN BAND ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION 18-21Z. IT APPEARS WE/LL SEE MAINLY MVFR/IFR RAIN THRU 00Z AT THE VALLEY TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAINLY IFR SNOW AT SLK WITH ELEVATION DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS 00-06Z TONIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WITH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS WILL BE LIMITED...EXCEPT AT SLK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z FRIDAY. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT N-NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SCT -SHSN REMAIN POSSIBLE MPV/SLK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE. 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS. 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 347 AM EDT THURSDAY...THREAT FOR POTENTIAL ICE BREAKUP AND JAMMING IS LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WILL COMBINE WITH RAINFALL TO PRODUCE RISES ON RIVERS HOWEVER THE RISES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE RIVER BANKS. THE TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER FORECAST RAINFALL IS HAVING EFFECT OF REDUCING FORECAST RIVER RISES. A FEW DEGREES COOLER WILL SLOW RATE OF SNOWMELT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DURATION AND INTENSITY OF WARMER TEMPS BASED ON LOCALLY RUN ACCUMULATED THAWING DEGREE HOURS TOOL SHOWS THREAT AREA ONLY AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT BUT HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINING TOO COOL. WILL LIKELY LOSE MOST SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS WARMUP BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MELT LESS. RAINFALL FORECASTS HAVE BACKED OFF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH IN THE SOUTH TO A HALF INCH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO ABSORB INTO SNOWPACK RATHER THAN RUN OFF. FORECAST RIVER RISES NOW MORE LIKE TWO TO FOUR FEET, WHICH IS BARELY SUFFICIENT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE OUR RIVER ICE THAT IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. WE MIGHT GET SOME ICE BREAKUP ON SMALLER TRIBUTARIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE ISOLATED. STILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 0131 AM EDT THURSDAY...DUE TO A CIRCUIT OUTAGE...THE KBTV ASOS (AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT WEATHER AND METAR OBSERVATIONS TO USERS OUTSIDE OF THE KBTV INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY WE ARE ABLE TO SEND OUT THE OBSERVATIONS AND SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MANUALLY SEND THE HOURLY OBSERVATIONS UNTIL THE ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN IS ABLE TO RESTORE THE BROKEN CIRCUIT...NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THIS CIRCUIT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS HYDROLOGY...HANSON/DEAL EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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