Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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807 FXUS61 KBTV 202332 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 732 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Ridge of surface high pressure will remain over the North Country through Thursday, providing the region with sunny and dry weather. Temperatures will warm above seasonal normals again towards the end of the week. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday night through Saturday as a frontal system moves slowly through the region. Some of the storms will have the potential to become strong or severe.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 732 PM EDT Wednesday...Going forecast in good shape with no changes needed at this time. Previous discussion...Large ridge of surface high pressure will remain over the region right through Thursday. Dry weather is expected. Tonight`s minimum temperatures will be slightly cooler than seasonal normals with another good radiational cooling night in place. Then highs on Thursday will be warmer than normal with ample sunshine and warming aloft. Could have some fog form overnight in the typically fog prone spots, but if any high clouds make it into the area this could be hampered. Believe Thursday will remain dry with any convection holding off till after midnight with next approaching system.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...An active period with several rounds of strong to severe storms possible. Thu Ngt/Early Fri Morning: A surface front in Ontario/Northern Great Lakes will be slowly approaching. Deep low-level layered moisture with with PWATS >1.5 inches advecting ahead of front...instability aloft with increasing presence of elevated mixed layer...a shortwave trough and exit region of 300mb jet approaching should have mesoscale convective complex in northern Great Lakes/Ontario moving into FA during late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Friday: As advertised...an Interesting day. SPC Day 3 (issued earlier today) is uncommon across FA. At times during the past few days models suggested that various ingredients didn`t quite come together all at the same time especially an elevated mixed layer. However...latest guidance is showing potential elevated mixed layer being present thus helps support the other parameters that have already been discussed in previous discussions. Surface instability (temperatures well into the 80s, resulting in CAPE values pushing 2000 J/kg. there still remains some questions on the low-level instability due to previous convection or debris clouds stabilizing atmosphere but feel enough dry air aloft and breaks will allow for substantial recoup of llvl instability. A shortwave skip through at some point during the day. Deep WNW shear of 35-45kts along with model soundings also indicate high equilibrium levels and semi-low wet bulb zero (10-11k ft) levels which suggest a wind and hail threat. Timing...After some recoup time from early morning activity...llvl destabilization and upper level shortwave activity in late morning/ aftn for some activity and perhaps enough drying afterwards for more late aftn/evening with surface front and another shortwave.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...Some residual influence from departing trough on sat will yield a chance of showers...esp vt with decreasing west to east and temperatures still seasonable or above by a few degrees. Some shortwave ridging sat ngt/sun before approach of another northern stream shortwave mon. Max T on Sunday a few degrees milder than sat with more sun. Some showers move into late sunday night/early monday morning but the main focus will be on Monday. Very similar Monday to Friday`s set-up with approach of strong shortwave...strong wind dynamics...a bit more amplified and stronger surface cold front with decent cold air advection and falling heights associated with it. Strong to severe storms possible again and already some mention in SPC Day 4-8 discussion. Some differences with ECMWF/GFS about Tue/Wed forecast with ECMWF more amplified thus a bit more wet on Tues. Similar to Sat...best chance across VT..esp NE Mtns and drying trend into Wed. Temperatures near seasonable with lower humidity.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Through 00z Friday...VFR clear through the period except LIFR vis in FG at KMPV and MVFR vis in BR at KSLK. Both sites approach their temp/dewpoint crossover temperature but its been a couple days now since the last rainfall. Any fog that develops will dissipate around 11z. Low confidence in the FG/BR forecast for both sites. Light wind for much of the period turning light south on Thursday. KMSS could see some gusts during the day in tighter pressure gradient and channeling up the St. Lawrence Valley. Outlook 00z Friday through Monday... Thu night-Sat...VFR, with scattered MVFR in showers and thunderstorms. Sun...Mainly VFR under weak high pressure. Mon...Scattered MVFR in showers and thunderstorms. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sisson NEAR TERM...Evenson/Neiles SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...Hanson

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