Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KBTV 271957
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
357 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Surface low pressure system continues to push eastward across
Quebec. Scattered showers redevelop Tuesday as surface front
moves west to east across our area. Wednesday and Thursday will
be drier with ridge of high pressure building south out of
Canada and over the North country. Another storm system looks to
affect the region on Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...Drier mid-level air works into the
region overnight. With clouds remaining in place across the
north country overnight minimum temperatures will be mild and
not dropping too far, mid 30s to around 40 from the Champlain
valley westward, with 30s east of the Greens. We may have a few
showers here and there but bulk of precipitation has now moved
East of the area. Wouldn`t be surprised to see some drizzle or
areas of patchy fog with lower levels remaining very saturated.
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday....Surface high pressure will build
southward from James Bay Tuesday. Low pressure system tracks
eastward across Quebec dragging a surface front with it across
our CWA. Will have some scattered light rain showers for Tuesday
into the first part of Tuesday night. Region will be solidly in
the warm sector ahead of aforementioned front early in the day
and max temperatures will reach the upper 40s to around 50.
Strongest shortwave energy stays well south of our CWA Tuesday,
therefore only scattered showers expected with the frontal
passage in the afternoon into Tuesday evening. Showers will
taper off Tuesday overnight, with possible change over to snow
showers with colder air moving into the region on Northwesterly
flow. On Wed upper level trough pushes across our area with
surface high pressure building south and east from central
Ontario. Will continue to be some scattered light rain or snow
showers, mainly across the northern high terrain. Wednesday will
be about ten degrees cooler than Tue and back below seasonal
normals once again. Looks to be a breezy day as well with cold
air advection and northwesterly winds gusting up to 25 mph.
Partly sunny skies will develop during the afternoon hours. On
Wednesday night any remaining precipitation comes to an end with
large ridge of surface high pressure ridging into the north
country. Wednesday night will be near normal, temps dropping
back into the 20s with some teens in the Dacks.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 357 PM EDT Monday...A ridge of high pressure will be over
the north country Thursday through Thursday night with fair and
dry weather expected. A low pressure area over the Ohio valley
will spread moisture into the region on Friday. GFS and ECMWF
model showing some timing differences at this time, with the GFS
model holding off precipitation until Friday afternoon, while
the ECMWF is more aggressive and bring precipitation in earlier
in the day on Friday. Have raised superblend pops to high chance
(50 percent) for Friday across the region, and will have likely
pops for Friday night. Will go with a mention of rain and snow
for Friday and Friday night. Precipitation will linger into
Saturday, so will continue with a chance of rain and snow. Have
stuck with superblend pops for Saturday night and Sunday, and
will have a chance of rain or snow showers. A ridge of high
pressure will build into the north country on Monday for fair
and dry weather.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Model guidance showing plenty of deep
layer moisture will be over the region through the period, with
mainly MVFR/IFR ceilings expected through 18Z Tuesday. Guidance
also showing a low level temperature inversion across the region
overnight, so expecting areas of drizzle and mist to develop
overnight as well.
Outlook 18Z Tuesday through Saturday...
18Z Tuesday through 12Z Wednesday...MVFR/IFR in scattered rain
showers Tuesday, then scattered rain/snow showers Tuesday night.
12Z Wednesday through 12Z Thursday...Mainly VFR, with some
scattered rain or snow showers mainly over the Adirondacks and
12Z Thursday through 18Z Friday...VFR, as a ridge of high
pressure will be over Vermont and northern New York.
18Z Friday through 00Z Sunday...Areas of MVFR/IFR in rain and