Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 140802 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 402 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front slowly moves toward the region today. A few showers over northern New York and northern Vermont are possible during the early morning hours. Shower activity will increase over northern half of the CWA Saturday night into Sunday morning as the front drops closer to the North Country. The front quickly lifts north Sunday morning and most of the area will experience breezy and warm conditions with temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year. Eventually a line of showers and possible thunderstorms will move across northern New York Sunday afternoon and during the evening hours across Vermont. Gusty winds across Northern New York have the potential to reach advisory level during the afternoon and evening hours.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 402 AM EDT Saturday...Frontal boundary moves closer towards the region today. Clouds will continue to increase ahead of the southwesterly flow along with some isolated shower activity mainly across the northern and western portions of the CWA through the late morning. The front will finally sag into the northern half of the North Country Saturday evening, bringing with it another round of more widespread showers. Early morning Sunday, the front will wave back to the north and activity will move back north of the international border before dawn. high temperatures for Saturday will be just above normal with highs in the mid to upper 60s with some valley locations seeing up to 70. Overnight lows will be again mild with lows in the 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 323 PM EDT Friday...Deep-layer ridge across the western Atlantic will maintain strong S-SW gradient flow across the North Country on Sunday, in advance of frontal system crossing the Great Lakes. Bulk of the daylight hrs will be breezy and seasonably warm. 850mb temperatures reaching +13 to +14C should yield valley high temperatures in the mid-upr 70s. Record highs are generally in the low 80s for October 15th, so will be close. It appears a pre-frontal trough will cross nrn NY 21-00Z, and then move across VT 00-03Z Monday, with cold front and onset of stronger low-level CAA crossing from west to east a few hours later. Minimal CAPE, but strong deep-layer forcing may yield a reflectivity fine line as depicted by the 00Z BTV-4kmWRF and 00Z NAM-Nest. Included a slight chance of thunder 21-03Z across St. Lawrence and Franklin counties. Absence of CAPE should preclude lightning threat further east. Most areas should see shower activity, and included max PoPs of 70-80 percent Sunday evening. Gradient flow will create widespread breezy conditions Sunday, generally 10-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Gusts may reach 40 mph across the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys with channeled flow. Will also need to watch evolution of any convection late in the day. Swly flow 50-60kts about 2kft AGL could mix down with possible wind damage if convective line becomes organized. Have made mention of the expected gusty winds in the HWO, and will continue to monitor. Flow turns westerly Sunday night with FROPA, generally 10-20 mph with a few gusts to 30 mph continuing with steep low-level lapse rates in low-level CAA regime. Will see more seasonable air mass moving into the North Country. Lows will generally be in the 40s, with a few upper 30s possible across the nrn Adirondacks. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 323 PM EDT Friday...It continues to appear that most of the long-term period will be tranquil. High pressure will be in control across the ern third of the CONUS during the work week. Will see valley highs in the 50s MON-TUE, moderating into the mid-upr 60s WED-FRI. Will need to watch for possible frost Monday night in the Champlain Valley before the warming trend commences. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions will give way to MVFR ceilings for SLK/MSS/MPV/RUT as clouds advect into the North Country, while BTV/PBG will remain VFR throughout the period. Frontal boundary over Northern NY will bring some isolated showers around SLK/MSS through mid morning. After this front waves north before cold front begins to move in from the west bringing more widespread showers for both stations after 00Z. Expect continued southerly winds 10-15 knots weakening for during the daytime back to 5-10 knots. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 32 kts. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 31 kts. Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .MARINE... As of 323 pm EDT Friday...A lake wind advisory continues tonight with winds 15 to 25 knots and gusts to 30 knots through midnight. This will maintain choppy conditions across the lake...especially over the northern areas. Winds will taper off a bit on Saturday...but even stronger south winds are expected on Sunday with 20 to 30 knot winds producing 3 to 5 foot waves and very choppy conditions. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Verasamy NEAR TERM...Verasamy SHORT TERM...Banacos LONG TERM...Banacos AVIATION...Deal/Verasamy MARINE...Taber

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