Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271745 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 145 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 132 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NW/N WINDS REACHING THE CPV. DEWPOINTS IN THE CENTRAL TO NRN CPV ARE IN THE 60S...WHILE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IN THE SRN HALF OF THE CPV AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SRN VT...DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED 70F. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND OVER THE MORE HUMID AREAS ARE HELPING TO KEEP SHOWERS AT BAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLGT-LOW CHC. OTHERWISE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6 TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ENSUE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS RISE BACK INTO THE 60S (MODERATE MUGGINESS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE RIDING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...SHOULD SEE A MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND THEREFORE MODEST CAPE VALUES. LOOKING AT HIGHS 77-82F. CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. LOWS LIKELY NOT FALLING OUT OF THE 60S. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PLACE THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING CAPE VALUES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS WITH BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD BE LOOKING AT A THREAT OF SOME STRONGER STORMS. HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL SHOW 75-82F FOR NOW...BUT IF FRONT IS SLOWER AND MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...THESE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY AND HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHWEST US AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. STILL WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY TRUE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND ANY PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE...THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AGAIN. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...LOOKING LIKE VFR PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE HAVE SOME BUBBLING DAYTIME CUMULUS WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT, BUT FROM A TAF PERSPECTIVE ALL THE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET, THOUGH SOME PATCHES OF MID- CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE COMBINATION OF JUST ENOUGH WIND AND DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY PATCHY FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT. SO THOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS MPV AND SLK ONCE AGAIN FALLING TO 1/2SM IN FOG, FEEL THAT WON`T HAPPEN. COULD SEE THE FOG INSTEAD BE TURNED INTO A BRIEF MVFR STRATUS DECK. WITH THE SMALL LAKES ADJACENT TO SLK, I COULD SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ALSO DEVELOPING THERE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, MY CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH WITH WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH REGARD TO FOG AT THOSE LOCATIONS. IT`S ALWAYS A TOUGH FORECAST. OTHERWISE, AFTER 13Z OR SO, IF THERE IS ANY FOG IT WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS PERHAPS GUSTING 15-20KTS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THU-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. 12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...MUCCILLI AVIATION...NASH

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