Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 151734
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
134 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain will taper off this morning with northerly breezes today
before another weak wave brings a mix of rain and snow showers
tonight. Dry conditions briefly return Saturday, followed by
another round of valley rain and mountain snow Saturday night
through Sunday. Cooler temperatures are expected to begin next
week as we remain under an unsettled pattern that will feature
periods of showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1201 PM EDT Friday...Adjusted sky cover to reflect
current satellite trends with some clearing edging into the St
Lawrence valley. The rest of the region remains overcast.
Precipitation has come to an end, and the rest of the daytime
hours should be dry. Additional shortwave energy brings showers
to the area once again after 00z. Previous discussion follows.
Tonight another wave quickly moves through the pattern beneath
an upper ride. Northwesterly flow pattern will favor upsloping
along the Adirondacks where synoptic lift is strongest and could
squeeze out another 0.1" of QPF. With heights falling under
cold air advection, a mix of rain and/or snow will be possible
for most elevations as this swings through. Only an inch or so
is possible above 1200ft and mainly localized in the
Adirondacks. Saturday flow shifts southerly with breezes
increasing and supporting temperatures above seasonal averages
in the 40s to low 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Friday...A barotropic low pressure system will
track through the North Country Saturday night through Sunday.
Given wean upper level support with a jet max displaced over the
northern Plains of the United States, QPF will be on the
lighter side with lower elevation rain and mid/upper elevations
seeing snow. While the thermal gradient isn`t very impressive,
the pressure gradient will be sufficient to kick up some
southwesterly gusts 20-30mph. With flow remaining out of the
southwest, temperatures will remain mild in the 40s to around 50
degrees Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Friday...An upper level trough will be
situated over the region for the start of next week, causing
some on and off snow showers. A few shortwaves will pivot
through along the trough and will briefly enhance the snow
showers a bit. Accumulations will be highest on the western
facing upslope areas but even there they will still be
relatively light. The Champlain Valley will likely be downsloped
a bit on Monday due to southwesterly winds but winds turn
northwesterly Monday night into Tuesday so some snow showers are
more likely then. Temperatures will rise will above freezing in
the broad valleys during the days but with steep lapse rates,
the precipitation should still fall as snow. Ridging will build
in later in the week and end the chances of snow showers but
temperatures should continue to stay around normal. Overall,
highs look to be pretty steady during this period with
temperatures generally reaching the 30s and low 40s, close to
normal for the time of year.
. && .AVIATION /... Through 06Z Saturday...Rain will continue to
move through the region from west to east for much of the
night. The heavier areas of rain will cause MVFR visibilities so
visibilities will be fluctuating between VFR and MVFR for much
of the night as the rain changes in intensity. Ceilings have
been steadily dropping as the rain has been moving through and
that trend will continue for much of the night. However,
ceilings will likely decrease the fastest once the steadiest
rain ends. Currently forecasting ceilings at SLK, EFK and MPV to
drop to IFR later in the night but IFR ceilings cannot be ruled
out at any of the terminals once the rain lightens up. The
ceilings at the rest of the terminals will fall to MVFR. Winds
are generally light and northeasterly and they will gradually
shift to northwesterly tonight and into the day on Friday. They
will increase a little during the day Friday but winds should
generally max out at or below 10kts. Ceilings will rise a little
during the day Friday and they should at least rise to MVFR at
every terminal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 18Z Saturday...Aviation challenge will be IFR cigs this
aftn, followed by timing of precip this evening and associated
impacts on cigs/vis. Crntly a wide range in conditions prevail
from VFR at MSS to MVFR at RUT/BTV/SLK/PBG to IFR/LIFR at
EFK/MPV. Based on northwest winds and blocked flow with
developing subsidence inversion aloft, feel IFR cigs prevail at
MPV/EFK thru 21z, before slowly trending better by 00z.
Meanwhile, developing northwest flow will result in lowering
cigs and IFR at RUT this aftn, while conditions should improve
to VFR at PBG/SLK and BTV. If clearly develops this evening and
temps drop quickly below cross over values, areas of shallow
fog/br are possible, but confidence is too low to place in tafs
attm. Tonight a cold frnt will produce a brief period of
showers with some rain/snow likely at SLK, as winds shift back
to the north/northwest expect IFR cigs/vis to redevelop at many
of our mtn sites toward 06z. Also, a period of IFR cigs
associated with northerly flow are likely at BTV/RUT toward
sunrise on Saturday. Conditions slowly improve after 15z as low
level moisture decreases and cig heights increase.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance
SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Taber