Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 280522 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 122 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 119 AM EDT THURSDAY...SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT HAVE CLEARED THE REGION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY THRU THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID-UPR 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS WITHIN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACK REGION...AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KINGDOM. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE N-NW THRU SUNRISE. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE M40S TO L50S. FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE M40S-U50S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG. THE DAILY SPECIFICS... SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM <20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S. THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 60S. SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING 1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT, BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT. MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY. SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT 850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE. TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER. HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY A LOW-MID LEVEL OVERCAST EXPECTED. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THUS...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN TAF FORECASTS. COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY PREVENT THE FORMATION OF ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF FORECASTS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 14Z-18Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY. OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...00Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. 12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...NASH AVIATION...WGH/NASH

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