Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 280750 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 350 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY... PROVIDING DRY WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...BENIGN WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION, ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING 500MB HEIGHTS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL SEE 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 12C RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE VALLEYS AND MID 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...EXCEPT 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST KINGDOM. LOOK FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN IN THE NORMAL SPOTS. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS WE RESIDE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE, CONTINUING THE WARMING TREND INTO SATURDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.SURFACE MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE CLOUDS RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF IT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BUT MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS DISTURBANCE, WEAKENING IT AT VARIOUS POINTS IN TIME AND MOSTLY KEEPING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THEREFORE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AND CONTINUED WARMING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW, SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ON SUNDAY, 850MB TEMPERATURES REACH 12C-14C. EVEN WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 252 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A WARM SUMMER- LIKE PATTERN RETURNING TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. OUTSIDE OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LARGELY BE DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT RESULTING IN ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS START OUT ON SUNDAY AT 12-18C RESPECTIVELY AND TICK UP A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY TOPPING OUT MID- WEEK AT 15-22C. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS LATE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S MID- WEEK UNDER PARTIAL TO FULL SUNSHINE. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING SOME AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 06Z SAT-18Z SAT...VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE. 18Z SAT-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON - 00Z WED...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

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