Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 300534 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 134 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1031 PM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST SECTIONS...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 5-8 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. LOOKING UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER SERN ONTARIO...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MID- LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION THRU 10Z...BUT WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS (PARTLY CLOUDY) ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE SATURATED FROM THE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48 HRS. WITH THAT IN MIND...DESPITE SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM 04-12Z. BEST POTENTIAL IS IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT AND WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE AS WELL. ADDED A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY 10-12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS SERN ONTARIO BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST LOCAL MODEL RUNS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN 10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OR MIST AT REST OF SITES AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL LOWER SO ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF SOME SHALLOW FOG OR TEMPO MVFR. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY 13Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER 18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS ON WEDNESDAY. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. 00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...RJS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.