Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 181930 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 330 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will dominate our weather for the week. The high pressure will also keep Jose well south of New England, so all that we will see is an increase in clouds and chances for showers across central and southern Vermont late Tuesday and Wednesday. The rest of the region will remain dry this week. The high pressure will also keep temperatures above normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 145 PM EDT Monday...forecast in decent shape for the afternoon. did make some minor adjustments based on latest radar trends for placement of the initial small showers that have bubbled up over the higher terrain. HRRR still seems the best of the convective models, so followed it`s lead. Given the moisture depth is not all that much and the amount of mid level dry air in place, the isolated showers we get will remain across the higher terrain and will not last long nor bring any significant precipitation. And 0% chance of thunder. Temperatures across the region are at or above previously forecast highs, so did adjust upward a couple of degrees. It appears the smoke layer aloft is just a bit thinner than it was yesterday, so we are getting just a little bit more insolation to warm things up. Well, at least that is my theory. Winds remain light, though there is a tendancy for them to turn southeast across Vermont in response to Jose well to the south. Overnight: expecting another quiet night, with areas of fog once again developing, especially in the more normal fog areas. Lows again well above normal, with 50s to lower 60s. Tuesday: Watching for low level moisture from the Atlantic being advected westward into portions of eastern Vermont. More guidance is picking up on this, and given the flow around Jose, it does make sense. Thus expecting it to end up being a "murky" looking day for southeast Vermont with low stratus hanging tough, even after the morning fog lifts. The clouds will also have an impact on temperatures, and continued with the idea of only in the lower 70s down around Springfield, while near 80F/low 80s in the Champlain Valley and points westward. Looks like that Atlantic moisture gets deep enough for some light rain showers by afternoon. Liked how the NAM and NAM3km are handling it, so used a model blend to drive the hourly PoP/weather evoluton. Tuesday night: 12z guidance didn`t suggest anything much different than what we previously had. Looking at 35-50% chance of light rain for roughly a St J to Rutland line and points south. That should be the farthest northwest any rain shield from Jose should make it. Even then, the rain won`t be heavy. Maybe upwards of 1/4" of rain. Otherwise we are too far away to see any strong winds. Once again, overnight lows will be above normal with 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 330 PM EDT Monday...Models continue to show the ridge building over the region Wednesday-Wednesday night as Jose begins a more easterly motion. This will keep most of the BTV forecast area rain free. The exception may be far southern Vermont where scattered rain showers related to Jose may persist. Will hold on to a 30 pop to cover the low chance. Temps should be closer but still slightly above normal in the lower to mid 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 330 PM EDT Monday...Forecast looks pretty quiet across the region in the long term, with the ridge holding strong. Have kept the forecast dry throughout the time period. The warm temperatures will also continue with the area seeing a slow warming trend.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday...the next 24 hours will be pretty similar to the past 24 hours. VFR area wide this afternoon, with only isolated light showers over higher terrain. Should not affect any TAF locations. Overnight expecting clear skies, with areas of fog again developing after 04z. Most TAF locations will be impacted, with visibilities expected to 1/2sm or lower for SLK and MPV. Although most areas will clear to VFR by late Tuesday morning, expecting lower MVFR ceilings to remain in place across southeast and south-central Vermont. At this time, think RUT will be most impacted by the lower ceilings. Those clouds may end up staying in MPV as well, but lower confidence in that scenario. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Patchy FG. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Nash NEAR TERM...Nash SHORT TERM...NRR LONG TERM...NRR AVIATION...Nash

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