Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 022030 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 330 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper trough will move southeast from Canada overnight, and will bring a chance of rain and snow showers. The region will remain under cyclonic on Saturday with a chance for more rain and snow showers. A ridge of high pressure will build into the north country on Sunday, and will bring fair and dry weather to the north country from Sunday through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 PM EST Friday...An upper trough will move southeast from Canada overnight, and will bring a chance of rain and snow showers to the north country overnight. This upper trough will bring colder air at the surface and aloft to the north country overnight and Saturday. The higher elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains could see 1 to 3 inches of snow overnight. Lows will be mainly in the 30s, except in the 20s over the higher elevations. On Saturday, the north country will remain under cyclonic flow from the departing surface low pressure area over the Canadian maritimes. Will go with chance pops for rain and snow showers on Saturday. Highs on Saturday will be mainly in the 30s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 AM EST Friday...Then more of the same for Saturday as we remain in northwesterly flow and a final upper shortwave swings through the region. Mainly cloudy skies with solid pops in the 40-60 percent range will be maintained, mainly across elevated terrain where orographic forcing will aid in boundary layer ascent supportive of snow shower activity. Considerably drier weather is expected in the valleys however with just a passing light rain or snow shower here or there. High temperatures continue seasonably cool in the 30s. By Saturday night clouds will hang tough in the mountains despite thinning moisture as weakening northwesterly flow persists with weak high pressure approaching from the Great Lakes. Valley locales should see some partial clearing after midnight however. Pops will continue to wane leaving just some scattered light snow showers or flurries across the highest of elevations by sunrise Sunday. Low temperatures mainly in the 20s. By Sunday high pressure will build across the region with sunny to partly sunny skies and light winds. Little airmass change is expected. In fact mean 925 mb thermal profiles actually cool slightly so high temperatures generally ranging through the 30s looks reasonable once again despite the added insolation. Winds light. Pops nil. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 AM EST Friday...Overall a fairly quiet period of sensible weather is expected during the Monday/Tuesday time frame with seasonably cool early December temperatures and only low chances of light precipitation, mainly across our western counties. Models remain generally consistent in tracking a dampening shortwave trough through the area on Monday into Monday evening with little fanfare. There will be a broad increase in cloudiness, though with weakening dynamical upper support and isentropic lift any precipitation should be light and scattered at best, most focused across our northern New York counties. By Tuesday high pressure returns to the region with partial sunshine and light winds. Again, negligible airmass change is expected with seasonal highs in the 30s both days and overnight lows in the 20s to around 30. Looking further out, this morning`s medium range guidance continues to suggest the mean flow trends more amplified across the lower 48 from mid-week onward as the year`s first decent polar airmass dives south into the Rockies and Northern Plains. This will eventually drive cyclogenesis across the Southern Plains/northwestern Gulf Coast which will track northeast toward the region. Still plenty of uncertainty in regard to how quickly this system will consolidate into a primary low pressure center with several solutions showing some sort of lead energy and associated precipitation affecting the area as soon as Tuesday night. At this point a blended solution appears most reasonable given this uncertainty, and will concentrate the bulk of higher precipitation chances during the Wednesday and Thursday time frame. Still too early to confidently predict p-type, though signals and synoptic pattern would suggest some sort of mix and/or rain seems most probable at this point as warm advective signatures increase solidly over time. Temperatures warm slightly during this period as mean background flow trends southerly with highs from the mid 30s to lower 40s or so, and lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s. && .AVIATION /20Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/... Through 18Z Saturday...An upper trough will move through the region overnight. Expecting rain and snow showers to gradually change to snow showers overnight as colder air at the surface and aloft moves into the region. Surface winds from the west- southwest will also gradually shift to the northwest overnight, as the upper trough moves through the region. Expecting areas of MVFR ceilings, with some local pockets of IFR. Outlook 18Z Saturday through Wednesday... 18Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday...Mix of VFR/MVFR with local IFR possible at KSLK in scattered rain/snow showers. 12Z Sunday through 06Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR with high pressure building in. Periods of MVFR ceilings possible, especially at KMPV/KSLK. 06Z Wednesday through 00Z Thursday...areas of MVFR/IFR in rain and snow showers. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...WGH

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