Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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584 FXUS61 KBTV 221932 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 332 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weather will remain dry through Wednesday night with surface high pressure in control, along with a gradual moderation in temperatures. As the surface high shifts east of New England later in the week, warm and humid conditions will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area Thursday into Friday. Dry conditions are expected to return for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 307 PM EDT Monday...Clouds will disperse this evening with nocturnal cooling as winds diminish to light to calm. This will result in good radiational cooling tonight as a ridge of high pressure builds in over the eastern USA. Will see some patchy dense fog develop after 05Z in the climatological favored valleys Min temperatures will generally fall into the mid 40s to lower 50s. As the surface ridge axis shifts southeast of the North Country early Tuesday, winds will become SW to WSW but remain light at 10kts or less. Warmer temperatures and less clouds expected as we continue to feel the affects of the ridge. Max temperatures expected to reach the 70s to around 80 with continued dry conditions. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 331 PM EDT Monday...Broad 500mb ridge builds over the eastern US during the short term period then begins to flatten Wednesday night with next approaching shortwave. Surface ridge centered to the south will keep the area in enough of a pressure gradient light south to southwest low level flow, bringing in warmer temperatures and slowly increasing moisture. Warming trend with overnight lows in the upper 50s/lower 60s Tuesday night and 60s Wednesday night. 850 mb temps Wednesday around 17C will support highs Wednesday in the 80s. Mid/upper level humidity will be low, with clear nights and sunny days. Exception is in the usual protected spots where winds will go calm, and radiation fog develops. Have added patchy valley fog for Tuesday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 331 PM EDT Monday...Uncertain forecast for Thursday with approaching trough out of the northern plains. 500 mb flow flattens out and becomes west-southwesterly oriented as upper ridge is suppressed by approaching trough. GFS and ECMWF indicate a shortwave trough racing ahead of the long wave trough, moving west to east across southern Quebec. Both models show precip during the day Thursday mainly to the north, but some bleeds over the border into northern NY. 12z Models would indicate any rain from this would be Thursday morning, however difficult to time features in fast westerly flow and kept chance pops going into the afternoon as well, thinking daytime heating would continue precip. Again, not a lot of confidence in this portion of the forecast & will have to see how things play out. Trough that should be the main show over the northern plains Wed night and Thursday becomes more of an open wave and also tracks north of the border across Quebec. Trailing cold front to move through at the surface during the day Friday. Chc POPs as a result, but with front so far removed from upper support don`t think there will be much organization to it. High pressure builds for the weekend with generally quiet weather, then introduced low chance pops for next system on Monday, but GFS & ECMWF differ so taking a wait and see approach. Temps...persistence for Thursday & Friday with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s, then cold front Friday knocks back temps to 70s and 50s Saturday and Saturday night.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/... Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions persist into this evening with low cloud deck BKN-OVC 035-050 and breezy NW winds 6-12kts and intermittent gusts 15-25kts. Clouds dissipate this evening with nocturnal cooling onset and diminishing winds. Will see LIFR fog tonight at SLK/MPV after 05Z with winds becoming light and variable areawide after 00Z Tue. Light southerly winds develop after sunrise and conditions gradually return to VFR for SLK/MPV. Otherwise VFR conditions expected throughout the day Monday. NOTE: Rutland AWOS (RUT) is not operating. Because of the lack of disseminated observations, we continue our suspension of amendments for the RUT TAF. Once the communication problem has been resolved, and we again get routine observations automatically transmitted, we will lift that restriction. Outlook 18Z Tuesday through Saturday... 18Z Tue - 18Z Thurs...VFR under high pressure. Only exception will be LIFR fog possible MPV/SLK 06-13Z each morning. 18Z Thurs - 00Z Sat...VFR/MVFR with chance of showers later Thursday afternoon and evening, and again Friday aftn/eve. 00Z Sat onward...VFR with building high pressure. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos/KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...Hanson LONG TERM...Hanson AVIATION...KGM

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