Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 282348 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 748 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. DRIER CONDITIONS BRIEFLY RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE WORK WEEK WILL START WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND TREND TO SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 748 PM EDT SUNDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. MORE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ALSO HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...SO BASED ON THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND 18Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 325 PM EDT SUNDAY...LINGERING GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35KTS ON WESTERN SLOPES AND 30-40KTS AROUND THE SUMMITS WILL CONTINUE A GRADUAL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN THE DRY SLOT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WITH HOW WET CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN, SOME AREAS MAY SEE PATCHY FOG. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S TO MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 325 PM EDT SUNDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING. THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE SURFACE RIDGING AS THE 500MB LOW EXITS EAST AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FILTERS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRYING TREND MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME SUN BREAKING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY LIMIT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT, BUT DIMINISHING WINDS WILL AID FOG DEVELOPMENT IN AT LEAST THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE AREAS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. TUESDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 500 J/KG AFFECTING SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BRING A WARM FRONT, RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TEENS, RESULTING IN MORE SEASONABLE MAX TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH UPPER LEVEL JET ENHANCING LIFT AND PROLONGING THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 325 PM EDT SUNDAY...LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS WELL-SPECIFIED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY CONTINUES IN MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. IT`S A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/VORT MAXES PROGGED TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER, THERE IS LESS CLARITY NOTED IN 12Z NWP SUITE THAN PRIOR CYCLES REGARDING TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES. I`VE OPTED TO USE A HEAVY DOSE OF BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. DAILY DETAILS FOLLOW... WEDNESDAY: LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE IN THE PERIOD AS A DIGGING SHORTWAVE INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION CARVES OUT MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY. THAT ALLOWS FOR A PLUME OF RELATIVELY HIGH PWAT AIR (UP TO 1.5 INCHES) TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD PARALLEL TO SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PER 12Z GFS, WARM SECTOR AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY LI`S OF -4 AND CAPE VALUES AOB 1000 J/KG, WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES 35-40 KTS. SO THERE COULD BE A WINDOW FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/HYDRO CONCERNS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. KEPT POPS HIGH LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL FOR VT AND CLOSER TO LIKELY FOR NORTHER NY. SHOWN FORECAST QPF WEDNESDAY UP TO A HALF INCH, BUT LOCALLY MORE IN CONVECTION. DEPENDING ON SPEED THAT FRONT EXITS - WHICH MAY TURN OUT TO BE SLOWER - SHOULD HAVE POST-FRONTAL CAA REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE M50S/NEAR 60. THURSDAY: GFS/EC REALLY ARE AT ODDS WITH REGARD TO HOW THURSDAY PLAYS OUT. THE GFS DEPICTS AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE WITH LARGER QPF ON THURSDAY, WHILE THE EC SHOWS MORE SHEARED-OUT SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND LOWER QPF. KEPT IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE PERIOD, BUT WILL TURN UNSETTLED HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND OF INDEPENDENCE DAY AS THE NEXT IN THE PARADE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AREAS OF LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...SOME POSSIBLE FOG/MIST...AND LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFT AND SHOWERS/DRIZZLE END. THIS WILL LEAD TO REDUCTIONS IN BOTH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. MOST IMPACTED WILL BE MSS/SLK/MPV WHERE MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR ARE LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR/MVFR AT BTV/PBG/RUT IS EXPECTED. MVFR CEILINGS LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR WITH BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST TOWARDS AND AFTER 18Z. WINDS LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT TURN GENERALLY WEST 3-7 KNOTS ON MONDAY. OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... LOOKING AT PREDOMINANTLY VFR ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. THESE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOCTURNAL RADIATION FOG ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 325 PM EDT SUNDAY...OBSERVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM 0.5-1.5 INCHES SO FAR. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL SURGE OF STEADY RAINFALL THIS EVENING. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 0.3-0.5 INCH OF RAINFALL, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, WHICH WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES ACROSS ALREADY INCREASING RIVERS AND STREAMS. SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL LIKELY APPROACH BANKFULL OR MINOR FLOOD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE RIVER FLOWS AND WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY SPOTS. PARTICULAR RIVERS OF INTEREST WILL BE THE EAST BRANCH OF THE AUSABLE RIVER, SARANAC RIVER, AND OTTER CREEK AND BARTON RIVER. ALSO THE RAQUETTE RIVER AT PIERCEFIELD AND SOUTH COLTON WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT`S ALREADY RUNNING NEAR AND ABOVE ACTION STAGE AND IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO PUSH IT OVER FLOOD STAGE. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 500 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ONE MONTHLY RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN SET AT MONTPELIER AND WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN ON TUESDAY, THE RECORDS AT BURLINGTON AND MOUNT MANSFIELD ARE IN JEOPARDY. AS OF 5 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5 PM, 8.85 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013. A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR BURLINGTON AND MT. MANSFIELD, AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS AS OF 5 PM 06/28. AT 8.44 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.48 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET IN 1922. AT 14.87 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 0.41 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR VTZ002>012-016>019. NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...WGH/KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...LOCONTO AVIATION...MUCCILLI HYDROLOGY...KGM CLIMATE...LOCONTO/MUCCILLI

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