Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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974 FXUS61 KBTV 172314 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 714 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring patchy fog again tonight and sunny and warm weather on Monday. Hurricane Jose may bring some clouds and a chance for showers mainly over south and east Vermont Tuesday into Wednesday with slight cooler temperatures before high pressure and warm weather returns for the rest of the week into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 711 PM EDT Sunday...We did fall short as we were 84 degrees today. Clear skies, although hazy and muggy dewpoints in the 60s. Temps slowly falling but largely as expected but may need to tweak higher due to rich dewpoints. No changes at this time. Patchy dense fog again tonight, however expect coverage to be less due to another day of sun, drying and no precipitation. Aftn discussion...Looks like we will fall a little short of record high of 86 this afternoon at BTV we have hit 84 so far. Tonight we will see fog development once again especially dense in the usual fog-prone valley locations as dew points in the 60s and we should cool to or slightly below those values tonight. Morning lows expected to range from the mid 50s to low 60s. On Monday, a wedge of high pressure should give us another day of warm weather though a developing east to southeast flow may keep areas east of the Greens a degree or two cooler. High mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s, warmest in the St. Lawrence and Champlain valleys. Monday night some high clouds from Jose and some fog and stratus development especially east of the Greens with persistent east to south flow. Extreme SE VT will have a low chance of showers toward Tue morning. Lows Monday night should hold in the upper 50s to lower 60s and relatively high dewpoints should yield some patchy fog development during the pre-dawn hours in favored locations once again. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 340 PM EDT Sunday...Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for latest track and guidance on Hurricane Jose. Largely referring to previous discussion with some tweaks...It still appears some fringe effects of Jose are possible, mainly in the form of rain showers reaching nwd into s-central VT during late Tuesday through possibly Wednesday midday. Latest trends bring Jose near or just inside the 40N/70W benchmark then the brakes get put on due to building ridge to our west with Jose drifting ENE then the longer range models show more looping with Jose which I won`t try to wrap my head around. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 340 PM EDT Sunday...Jose should have diminishing potential influence during this period as the main weather driver is the large Upper ridge that will be in control through next weekend. As I mentioned just earlier, most of the models want to loop Jose ESE from New England and as it loops south-southeast this just allows the Upper Ridge to build in more. Unseasonably mild and dry weather for late week and weekend with highs starting in the mid-upper 70s to lower 80s by weekend with lows in 40s/50s moderating into the 50s. Beyond this period...busy with a looping Jose or remnants of Jose and watching the tropics to see if Maria impacts the US at some later point. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18Z Monday...VFR under high pressure and light variable or calm winds through 03-05Z. Then local VLIFR fog development at be KSLK and KMPV persisting from 06z-14z Monday. Elsewhere tempo IFR in BR can`t be ruled out but possible confidence is lower as we become more removed from precipitation and soils continue to dry. VFR and light wind continues on Monday as high pressure continues to dominate. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR/MVFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... Abnormally warm temperatures are expected today, Sunday, September 17, 2017. Daytime maximum temperatures could reach record breaking heat at some locations with forecast temperatures reaching the low to mid 80s today. RECORD MAX 9/17: Burlington, VT - 86F set in 2015 Montpelier, VT - 81F set in 1955 Massena, NY - 84F set in 1972 & 1955 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Sisson/SLW SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...Sisson CLIMATE...KGM

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