Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 240855 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 355 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...IN THE NEAR TERM THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS THE SHIELD OF WARM FRONTAL RAIN LIFTING NORTHEAST. FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AT 500 MB OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE EAST RIDING UP OVER A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT TRAILING ALONG INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAIN BEGINNING TO ENTER SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN/ESSEX COUNTIES AROUND 08Z, COVER NEAR ALL THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT NORTHEAST KINGDOM BY 12Z, AND MOVE TO CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z. RAIN TO END WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SUPPORTED BY SURGE OF WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEAR 13 C. SPEAKING OF SOUTHERLY FLOW...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS QUITE STRONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OVER 60 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY. DO NOT BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX TO SURFACE HOWEVER AS THEY REMAIN ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND RAINFALL TENDS TO STABILIZE LOWEST LEVELS AND PREVENT WIND FROM MIXING. MOUNTAIN SUMMITS & HIGHEST RIDGETOPS WILL SEE STRONGER WINDS HOWEVER NO POPULATION UP THERE TO WARRANT ADVISORY. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...AFTER PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT LOW LEVEL FRONTAL INVERSION IS ELIMINATED AND MORE MIXING OCCURS FROM SURFACE THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGER WINDS DO MIX DOWN, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW YORK, HOWEVER LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG NORTHWEST SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 KTS WITH IN THE MID 30S KTS WITH WIDESPREAD 15-25 KTS ELSEWHERE. VERY NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE ADVISORY IN UPCOMING FORECAST. COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING OF THE AIR COLUMN. RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PRESENCE FELT. GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WET BULB COOLING OF NEAR SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW. USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50% CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE STORM.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH 08-10Z...THEN THREAT OF LLWS AS WINDS 2000-4000FT WILL BE 40-70KT FROM THE SOUTH AS A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER QUICKLY TO MVFR BY 10-13Z. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN WILL IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 06Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK. 00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. 00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE...
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A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HANSON NEAR TERM...HANSON SHORT TERM...HANSON LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...SISSON MARINE...SISSON

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