Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 170632 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 232 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A slow moving upper level disturbance approaching from southern Ontario will bring numerous showers and thunderstorms to the area today, especially this afternoon and evening. A few stronger storms are possible with small hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy rainfall. The upper level disturbance will move east on Tuesday but still a few additional showers or thunderstorms are possible again especially over eastern Vermont. A ridge of high pressure will bring warmer and drier conditions to the area on Wednesday before another frontal system moves in on Thursday and Friday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier weather are likely by Saturday under high pressure.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 230 AM EDT Monday...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to affect the North Country as an upper level trof approaches from Ontario early this morning. Today continues to look active as the upper level trof moves slowly into the St. Lawrence Valley. East of this feature, ingredients are coming to together for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop as the atmosphere becomes sufficiently destabilized by afternoon. CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg are expected. 0-6km shear is marginal at 20-30 kts with PW`s rising to 1.25" in the mountains to as high as 1.60" in the valleys this afternoon. We should see showers and thunderstorms become fairly numerous/widespread during peak daytime heating hours. A few stronger storm cores are possible with potential for pulse storms with gusty downdraft winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall. Right now it looks like storms should propagate slowly but steadily eastward to preclude widespread flash flooding, but wouldn`t be surprised to have one or two storms produce rainfall of 2 inches or so which is right at flash flood guidance thresholds for 1-3 hr duration. 850 temps should provide high temps in the 80s especially from the Champlain eastward where readings in the valleys should reach the mid 80s. Tonight convective activity will slowly wind down with the loss of insolational heating and should be most active as storms and upper level trof propagate eastward through Vermont. Thus, after midnight expect mainly dry conditions with mild temps in the 60s under partly cloudy skies. Also expecting areas of dense fog after 06z especially in the river valleys after all the expected rain. The upper level trough will continue to move east with rising heights and warm advection Tuesday. It will move out of the the North Country limiting sct showers and thunderstorms to south and east VT through early afternoon. Again high temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s with 850 temps around 13C.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 428 PM EDT Sunday...Expect showers and thunderstorms to exit east Tuesday evening as the trough moves over eastern New England. Surface temperatures generally in the mid 70s to mid 80s on Tuesday with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Ridge axis will build over the North Country at the surface and aloft Tuesday night through Wednesday. This will leave to mostly clear skies and drier conditions by early Wednesday morning, starting the day with morning lows in the 60s. Temperatures will be warmer as 925mb temps increase by 1C to 3C, resulting in max temps on Wednesday in the 80s.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 428 PM EDT Sunday...Active pattern continues as a series of shortwave troughs move through the persistent mean NW flow, though details become a bit more fuzzy as we head later in the week. Another trough looks to bring showers across the area Wednesday night through Thursday. As the 500mb trough exits east Thursday night into early Friday, expect less of a chance for showers. Another shortwave approaches for latter half of Friday with 120kt jet at 250mb providing some upper level support for more showers and possible thunderstorms. Models diverge Friday night onward. Have kept low chance POPs through the weekend as there are some features moving across portions of the eastern CONUS, but details such as progression and track are far from resolved. Temperatures throughout the period will be around seasonal normals. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Through 06Z Tuesday...A mix of MVFR/VFR in SHRA isld TSRA northern NY through 12z but expect largely VFR prevail except locally MVFR/IFR vsby heavier SHRA/TSRA+ developing aft 17z, probably reaching BTV 19-21Z as upper level trof moves eastward. Could be some hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain with any TSRA. Winds southerly through 10 kts or less except higher near TSRA. Some areas of IFR Fog developing toward the end of the period after all the rain with partial clearing and light winds. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sisson NEAR TERM...Sisson SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Sisson

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