Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271825 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 225 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE DRY AND COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN MOST SECTIONS TODAY. CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 222 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD, MAINTAINING DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS. ONCE PBL DEEPENS THIS MORNING...WILL SEE GENERALLY NW WINDS 5-10 MPH WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY NRN/NERN VT ON PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW ACROSS ERN QUEBEC...BUT GENERALLY SUNNY TODAY AND CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS -4C TO -7C FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. EVEN WITH FULL SUN...ONLY LOOKING AT AFTN HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...10-15DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. POPS NIL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /3 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO END THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH KEEPS NW FLOW AND INFLUX OF COOLER AIR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A FEW CLOUDS WILL CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTH AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY. THIS REGIME WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WITH DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 25 TO 35% RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THE DRY AIR, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 10-15KTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY AND THUS REMAINING WELL BELOW OUR FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT LACKING IN MOISTURE, ONLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE WITH REGARDS TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS DO SHOW THIS SYSTEM TRACKING EAST MONDAY, BUT HOW FAR NORTH IT REACHES IS UP FOR DEBATE. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MAXES IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 AND MINS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES. DURING THE DAY EXPECT GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AT BOTH MSS AND MPV WITH GUSTS 15-20KTS INTERMITTENTLY. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBY AND NO SIG WX. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. NO SIG WX.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...BANACOS/DEAL

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