Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 270540 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1240 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH A WEST WIND AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1232 AM EST SATURDAY...MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST, ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, WINDS OUT OF THE S-SW GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...BUT BULK OF OVC SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA FORECAST WELL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS OUR FA...AS 1000 TO 500MB 540 LINE LIFTS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 18Z SATURDAY. THIS LOW LEVEL WAA ON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...WITH GOOD MIXING WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS NEAR 50F WITH FULL SUNSHINE...BUT WITH CLOUDS AND LIMITED MIXING LVLS WILL TREND ABOVE GUIDANCE AND MENTION HIGHS 30S MTNS TO M40S VALLEYS. A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IF MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BTWN SFC AND 850MB...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. ALSO...A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MTNS AFT 18Z SATURDAY...GIVEN RH PROFILES AND UPSLOPE SOUTHWEST FLOW. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...SFC GRADIENT INCREASES WITH APPROACHING COLD FRNT..ALONG WITH PROGGED 85H JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS. THIS WILL CAUSE SHADOWING OF PRECIP FIELDS IN THE CPV AND PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY ON SAT NIGHT...AS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...AS DEEPER RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH APPROACHES OUR CWA...THE BEST 5H SUPPORT IS LIFTING NORTHWEST OF OUR FA...AND RH FIELDS WEAKEN...ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED QPF. GIVEN THE LACK OF COLD AIR AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM...ONLY A BRIEF 1 TO 3 HOUR WINDOW OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH QPF CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MTNS. THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES OF 0.05 TO 0.10 WILL BE NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE NORTHERN GREENS...WITH ONLY A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE VALLEYS. LATEST GUIDANCES SHOWS LOW LEVEL CAA LAGGING SEVERAL HRS BEHIND INITIAL RIBBON OF MOISTURE...SO AS THERMAL PROFILES COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN THE MTNS...BEST MOISTURE IS EAST OF OUR CWA. A FEW LEFTOVER FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE FLW...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION. WILL TREND TWD THE WARMEST GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY SLV/CPV...WITH COOLEST READINGS IN THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN VT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE M30S TO M40S. SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROPPING TO -10C BY 00Z MONDAY. THE LACK OF A SHARP BOUNDARY/THERMAL GRADIENT AND LIMITED QPF WILL PREVENT ICY ROADS FROM DEVELOPING. ALSO...SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD UNIDIRECTIONAL AND MIXING OF WINDS WHICH WILL HELP TO DRY LLVLS OUT. WILL MENTION EARLY MORNING HIGHS IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS...BUT TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 10S SUMMITS TO MID 20S MIDSLOPES AND 30S IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPS WILL CONT TO FALL ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER IN THE MTNS...AS LOW LEVEL CAA HELPS SQUEEZE OUT REMAINING MOISTURE IN WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLW. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO M/U 20S ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH WEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 328 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGEABLE WEATHER WITH WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING EAST FROM CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD TEMPERATURES THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHWEST WITH COLD AIR TO THE NORTH SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPS GO FROM -12C ON MONDAY TO -16 TO -18C ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAX SURFACE TEMPS ONLY IN THE TEENS WITH LOWS SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. CHANCE POPS EXTEND INTO WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND CLOUDS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST THROUGH 00Z. EVENTUALLY ALL AREAS WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 00Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER 02Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUNDAY-00Z MONDAY...SCATTERED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS MIXING/CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LATE SUNDAY WHEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN. 00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MVFR CIGS IN NORTHERN NY WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS INTO THE ADIRONDACKS. VFR IN VERMONT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...HANSON AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.