Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 010514 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 114 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... RAINFALL, HEAVY AT TIMES, WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON RIVERS IN CENTRAL VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK AS AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 111 AM EDT MONDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE BACK EDGE ACROSS WESTERN NY REACHES OUR CWA BY SUNRISE. EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIP OVER NORTHERN NY INTO VERMONT ON MONDAY. TOTAL QPF WILL RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.50" THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO ISSUES THROUGH THIS MORNING...GIVEN RAINFALL RATES AND CRNT RIVER LEVELS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID 40S MTNS TO NEAR 50F VALLEYS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 745 PM EDT SUNDAY... MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS OVER THE NEXT 4-8 HOURS BASED OFF CURRENT RADAR/SFC OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THIS WILL HIGHLIGHT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SOUTH, THEN TRENDING TOWARD A MORE WIDESPREAD MOD/OCCNLY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS MCV AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER SLUG OF MOISTURE/DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO MADE PER RECENT TRENDS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LARGELY ON TRACK WITH NO PHILOSOPHICAL CHANGES IN THOUGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 234 PM EDT SUNDAY...FOR FIRST PART OF SHORT TERM REGION REMAINS IN POST FRONTAL AIR AT THE SURFACE THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER, AND SOUTHWESTERLY MOIST FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER WAVE PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI TO TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL HALF TO ONE INCH RAINFALL ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN 12-18Z TUESDAY AND 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION 18Z-00Z WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TUESDAY ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AND MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 346 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLOSED 500MB LOW EXITS EASTWARD THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRYING WNWLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...ALONG WITH RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR WEDNESDAY...AND MID 70S FOR THURSDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WED/THURSDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WEAK MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT (30-40 POPS ATTM). HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY MID- UPR 70S AND A BIT MORE HUMID FOR FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY 12Z SATURDAY BRINGING GENERALLY DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 70S WITH RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AND LIGHT N-NW WINDS. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...UNSETTLED/CHANGEABLE AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD. MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR CEILINGS OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO WIDESPREAD MVFR (POSSIBLE IFR) CEIILNGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES IN STRATIFORM RAIN. MAIN CHALLENGES INCLUDE TIMING BREAK IN RAINFALL AND HOW LOW CEILINGS GO. IFR CEILINGS PERSIST AT MPV AND RUT, WHILE OTHER TAF SITES PRESENTLY ARE VFR. THINK THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL RAIN STARTS AND EAST WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE. I`VE USED THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE FOR TIMING, SHOWING 3 TO 5 SM RA BETWEEN 03-05Z LASTING THOUGH 11-13Z. UPSTREAM OBS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK INDICATE CEILINGS AS LOW AS IFR IN APPROACHING RAIN, THOUGH EAST FLOW CAN LIMIT COVERAGE OF IFR CEILINGS. NOT MUCH CONSENSUS ON LOWEST CEILINGS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS, EITHER. MVFR CEILINGS MOST LIKELY, BUT I OPTED TO AT LEAST HINT AT IFR CEILINGS WITH A SCT GROUP. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DIMINISHES INTO THE REST OF MONDAY, WITH 5-6 SM RAIN INDICATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL ALSO LIKELY STAY AT LEAST MVFR. WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN EASTERLY AND GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS, EXCEPT FOR RUT AND MSS. OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS -RA. MVFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. 12Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY...SCT -SHRA SLOWLY EXITING TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBY. 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RETURNING VFR WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. && .HYDROLOGY... FLOOD WATCH 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. ESSEX NY AND WINOOSKI AND OTTER CREEK BASINS IN VERMONT RECEIVED 1 TO 2+ INCHES RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT CONVECTION, AND GAGES RIVERS IN THOSE AREAS RUNNING IN 90TH PERCENTILE. ADDITIONAL FORECAST ONE TO TWO INCHES FROM APPROACHING WAVE MOVING ALONG FRONT WILL PUSH MANY RIVERS TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. DO NOT EXPECT RAPID RUNOFF FLASH FLOODING. RIVERS TO WATCH INCLUDE EAST BRANCH AUSABLE, BOQUET, AND TRIBUTARIES TO WINOOSKI SUCH AS MAD AND DOG. SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP ARRIVING LATE MONDAY NIGHT COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FLOOD PRODUCING RUNOFF. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ005>012-017>019. NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ034-035.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...HANSON NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER SHORT TERM...HANSON LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO HYDROLOGY...HANSON

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