Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 310543 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 143 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1245 AM EDT MONDAY..CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT....ESPECIALLY FROM 08-12Z. CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY. SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING. OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 06Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...RJS

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