Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 270254 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1054 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY WILL BE DYING DOWN FOLLOWING SUNSET. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1044 PM EDT SUNDAY...WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN. MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS HEAVY RAIN DUE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES WITH RAIN STILL FALLING ACROSS EASTERN ADDISON COUNTY PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF FLASH FLOOD WARNING. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN AS WE REACH MIDNIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AREAWIDE LATER TONIGHT. ALREADY SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING...EXPECT IT BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED WELL TO OUR NORTH IN NORTHERN QUEBEC. 850 WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON. DID GO A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EACH DAY. THE NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE MILD WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...WARMEST STRETCH OF WEATHER OF THE SEASON THEN OCCURS BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SURFACE FRONT TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS PARENT CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THIS FEATURE, AND WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE CONSISTENT AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN OUTPUT. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS, RUNNING IDEA OF A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AIRMASS STORM HERE AND THERE DURING THE LATE/AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY EITHER, BUT GIVEN LACK OF A LARGER-SCALE FORCING MECHANISM MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 87-92 RANGE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN 85 TO 90 ON THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT AND MUGGY LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY NEXT FRIDAY AS HIGHS SETTLE BACK IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW. BY NEXT WEEKEND SOME DISPARITY BETWEEN THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EURO OUTPUT IN REGARD TO A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OR FRONT SAGGING INTO OUR REGION AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. OF COURSE, THE GFS IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH AND MOST ROBUST WITH COOL AIR PUSH FROM THE NORTH, A KNOWN BIAS. GIVEN MID-SUMMER CLIMO WILL DOWNPLAY THIS SOLUTION SOMEWHAT FOR NOW AND ADVERTISE ONLY A TOKEN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY INSTABILITY SHOWER/STORM DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE 55 TO 65 RANGE. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD UNDER VARIABLY LIGHT FLOW AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THE FEW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION ARE ALL BUT DONE...JUST KEEPING VCSH AROUND RUT UNTIL 02Z JUST IN CASE THE LAST ONE OUT THERE DOESN`T DISSIPATE BEFORE IT PASSES THE STATION. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS PATCHY IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND/OR BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK IN THE 06-13Z TIME FRAME AND A CHANCE OF MVFR FOR RUT FOR THE SAME TIME. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED AS WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN A PASSAGE OF A SURFACE FRONT WILL ALLOW SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZATION. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 2-8 PM EACH DAY WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KMPV/KSLK. 12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...HIGH PRESSURE/VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...RJS/MV

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