Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 141902 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 302 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED...ENDING AS WET SNOW AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...VERY WARM DAY ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN A FEW SPOTS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD WHERE A FEW SPOTS (INCLUDING KBTV) HAVE ECLIPSED THE 80F MARK. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS IS THE FIRST 80F OCCURRANCE SINCE OCT 7 OF LAST YEAR. AS WE PROGRESS INTO TONIGHT...MILD/BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS P-GRAD REMAINS TIGHT AHEAD OF SLOWLY ADVANCING...YET VERY STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER/ISOLD THUNDER ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN NY AND PERHAPS FAR NWRN VT LATER TONIGHT OR TOWARD MORNING. SOME MINOR CONCERN OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE GUSTS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SLV SHOULD ANY OF THE ACTIVITY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL CERTAINLY KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AS WE`RE IN A CLASSIC LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HOLDING VERY MILD IN MOST SPOTS UNDER THE BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...MAINLY 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR 60F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE SLV WHERE STRONG FRONTAL ZONE WILL ENCROACH TOWARD DAYBREAK AND A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. HAVE LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THIS AREA GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON POSITION OF BOUNDARY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY THEN ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS VERY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY AN ANAFRONTAL TYPE FRONTAL ZONE DEPICTED ON MOST MODELS...WITH SCT PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO A STEADY/SOAKING RAINFALL BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES VERY TRICKY AND GIVEN UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES...WILL OFFER MILDEST READINGS EAST IN THE MORNING THROUGH NOON (60S TO NEAR 70)...WITH READINGS CRASHING THROUGH THE DAY. IN FACT...MANY AREAS MAY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BY AS MUCH AS 20F IN ONE HOUR AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES. WINDS CONTINUE QUITE GUSTY...ESP EAST AND PARTICULARLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE CHANNELED PRE-FRONTAL SOUTH FLOW WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SPEEDS. AS A RESULT...WILL BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS INCLUDING MUCH OF THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ELSEWHERE...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS APPEAR REASONABLE. AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY SUCH THAT P-TYPE WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW...THEN ALL SNOW BY AFTEROON IN NRN NY...AND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NW TO SE IN VERMONT. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. WET ACCUMULATIONS RELATIVELY MINOR WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...1-3 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FT...AND PERHAPS 2-5 AT SUMMIT LEVEL. QUITE THE CHANCE FROM TODAY TO SAY THE LEAST. LOWS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN COLDER NRN MTN LOCALES. THEREAFTER...SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS QUIET AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A CHILLY DAY ON TAP FOR SURE THOUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY DIMINISHES OVER TIME. HIGHS IN MOST SPOTS ONLY IN THE 30S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 40S SOUTH. THEN CLR/PTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSUR OVERHEAD AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED. LOWS 15 TO 25. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 302 PM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ALLOWING FOR GENTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN AROUND TO SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S THEN MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY AS 850 TEMPS RISE TO 0 TO +3C. AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY LINGERS INTO SUNDAY BRINGING AN AVERAGE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD OR WARM TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL LOOKING AT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 850 TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 0C GIVING US HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S BUT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS PLENTIFUL.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE THIS AFTN/EVENING WL BE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO 35 KNOTS FOLLOWED BY CHCS FOR SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK. CRNT ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH IS PRODUCING SOUTH WIND GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 35 KNOTS ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THESE WINDS WL CONT THIS AFTN AND SLOWLY WEAKEN TWD SUNSET AS MIXING DECREASES...ESPECIALLY MTN VALLEY SITES OF MPV/SLK. OTHERWISE...CRNT RADAR SHOWING WEAK RETURNS ACRS WESTERN NY THIS AFTN...WHICH WL IMPACT MSS BTWN 21-01Z AND SLK BTWN 22Z-02Z THIS EVENING WITH VIS BTWN 4-6SM AND CIGS BROKEN TO OVERCAST BTWN 2500 AND 4000 FEET...BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE. THINKING PRECIP WL STAY OVER NORTHERN NY AND NOT IMPACT CPV AND POINTS EAST. GIVEN GOOD BL MIXING ALSO NOT EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ON TUE A SHARP SFC COLD FRNT WL APPROACH THE SLV BY 12Z AND BE INTO THE CPV BY 18Z. VERY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED VALLEYS (PBG/BTV/RUT/MSS) REACHING 40 TO 45 KNOTS BTWN 12Z-16Z TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC COLD FRNT WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST ANTICIPATED. THIS WL CREATE AREAS OF MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE...ALONG WITH LLVL WS IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED. ALSO...THINKING MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR WL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA PRECIP...WITH SLK MIXING WITH RAIN/SNOW BY 18Z TUES. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WL BE ACRS THE CPV AROUND 18Z TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST EXPECTED BTWN 18Z-21Z TUESDAY AT BTV/MPV/RUT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE FROPA PRECIP WITH A 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...WITH VIS LESS THAN 3 MILES. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST BTWN 18Z (SLK)-00Z (MPV) WITH ADDITIONAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ON TUES EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFT 06Z WEDS WITH VFR RETURNING BY WEDS SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WEDS INTO THURS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF MID-AFTERNOON CONTINUED SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTES TO SURFACE RUNOFF. WHILE SOME MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH THE TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. WHILE NOT EXCESSIVELY HEAVY...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP RISES ON MOST AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN SOME CASES INTO MINOR FLOOD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RIVERS WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE ARE THE AUSABLE...WINOOSKI AND THE OTTER CREEK...THOUGH NUMEROUS OTHER WATERSHEDS MAY IN FACT FLOOD AS WELL WITH MINOR LOWLAND FIELD FLOODING BEING A NEAR CERTAINTY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR VTZ001-002-005- 009-011-017>019. NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035- 087. WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ028-035.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...SISSON AVIATION...TABER HYDROLOGY...JMG

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