Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 191914 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 314 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain as the controlling weather feature across Vermont and northern New York during the next 5 to 7 days. Hurricane Jose will remain south of New England, but onshore flow from coastal areas will result in periods of low clouds and a chance of light showers for eastern Vermont tonight into Wednesday morning. Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain dry with temperatures well above seasonal averages for mid to late September. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday...The quiet weather conditions will continue through the near term with a fairly narrow but strong high pressure ridge anchored over the region. This ridge will keep the brunt of the effects from Jose southeast of the forecast area. There is a low chance a few showers will make it into the far southeast part of the forecast area tonight so will hold on to the 30 pop there. Any rainfall which occurs will be light. Otherwise, models still indicate patchy fog, mainly in the favored areas, although there could be light fog in the Champlain Valley. Winds are expected to turn northerly at 10-15 mph on Wednesday as they respond to the cyclonic circulation of Jose. Overnight lows will be above normal again tonight, in the 50s to lower 60s. Highs on Wednesday are expected to be mainly in the 70s areawide. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for latest track and guidance on Hurricane Jose. Jose pulls away from the east coast and looks to have diminishing potential influence for the short term as the main weather driver as the large upper ridge shifting in from the west that will be in control. This will lead to another quiet and dry day for Thursday, though temperatures will be slightly cooler with northerly flow over the region. Even still temps will still be above seasonal norms with highs in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...As mentioned before, the large upper ridge will dominate our weather through next weekend. Most of the models continue to want to loop Jose ESE from New England and as it loops south-southeast this just allows the Upper Ridge to build in more. This leads to unseasonably mild and dry weather for late week and weekend with highs starting in the mid-upper 70s to mid 80s by weekend with lows in 40s/50s. Looking beyond this period, with a looping Jose or remnants of Jose, Maria looms in the distance and could have potential impacts for the US next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday...Most TAF sites should be VFR through the TAF period. The exceptions will be KMPV and possibly KRUT/KSLK. Expect KMPV will see a continuation of the effects of the marine layer and IFR/MVFR vis/cigs overnight along with scattered showers nearby. KRUT/KSLK may also see IFR-MVFR conditions overnight. Expect all sites to return to VFR during the day Wed. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...NRR SHORT TERM...Verasamy LONG TERM...Verasamy AVIATION...NRR

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