Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 290556 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 156 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 50S FOR HIGHS TODAY...AND INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST- NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 127 AM EDT FRIDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC/SERN ONTARIO REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE. LIGHT N-NE WINDS AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIRSTREAM (DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S) INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANOTHER CHILLY START WITH TEMPS AT DAYBREAK TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 20S. 850MB TEMPS RECOVER A BIT BY AFTN...AROUND 0C ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT AND -1C TO -2C ACROSS THE NORTH. SUNNY SKIES THROUGH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A BIT TODAY INTO THE MID 50S FOR HIGHS IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMP READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOUT 5DEG BELOW CLIMO AVG FOR LATE APRIL. CONTINUED QUIET TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS PA/NJ MAY SPREAD SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN THE SKY GRIDS. MAY ALSO MITIGATE RADIATIVE COOLING A BIT ACROSS SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AGAIN GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING, RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 332 PM EDT THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE TIME PERIOD AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HIGHLIGHTS THE FEATURES OF NOTE THROUGH SUNDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND LIGHT NW FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHORTWAVE AT 500MB WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF A FEW CLOUDS AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO USHER IN MOISTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND IN THE 20S TO MID 30S AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT. 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE NORTHEAST FOR PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE, WARM AIR ADVECTION PRODUCING RAIN SUNDAY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY WITH THE PROSPECT OF RAIN SPREADING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...BUT MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 332 PM EDT THURSDAY...GUIDANCE STILL FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION PROVIDES THE DETAILS AND IS BELOW...WITH JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. UPPER ENERGY WITHIN A SLOWLY MOVING MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BY MONDAY THERE WILL BE MORE OF A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A COASTAL SYSTEM. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON DETAILS...BUT 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW CLOSED SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING PAST CAPE COD AREA LATE MONDAY. EXPECT LOW TO DEPART NORTH AND EAST, ENDING PRECIP OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAY EMBEDDED IN 500MB TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S AND MINS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO REMAINS IN CONTROL BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT N-NE WINDS (LESS THAN 10KTS) THRU THE PERIOD. NO SIG WX EXPECTED. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THRU THE DAY SATURDAY WITH NO SIG WX. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ENEWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL RAINFALL SUN INTO MON. PREVAILING MVFR W/ INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...BANACOS

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