Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 220519 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 119 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TONIGHT ON INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 118 AM EDT TUESDAY...RADARA TRENDS BRINGING LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST. VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F IN HIR TRRN....TO THE MID/UPPER 40S IN VALLEY LOCALES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 421 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT WORKING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HRS...WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTNOON...SFC LOW WILL BE OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE FRONTAL PRECIP. LEADING UP TO THE EVENING HRS...FRONTAL BAND WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN VT. MDL TIMING AND EXPECTED PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO HAVE DEVIATED VERY LITTLE WHICH GIVES AREA 0.20-0.40" OF RAIN. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HRS IN N NY AND BY EARLY AFTNOON FOR OTHER POINTS EAST. FORECASTED HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLD COVER AHEAD/DURING FROPA. TIGHT GRADIENT WITH FROPA WILL BRING GUSTS POTENTIAL INTO THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TRANSIITON FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS TO NORTHERLY ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW. MAINLY -RW IN VALLEY LOCALES WITH -RW TRANSITIONING TO -SW AT HIR ELEV WITH 1-2" LOCALIZED POTENTIAL ACCUM. STILL LOOKING FOR 10-20 MPH WINDS WITH SOME LOCALLY HIR GUSTS AND LOWS IN THE 30S FOR HIR TRRN TO NEAR 40F IN THE MAIN VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE ENTIRE CWA UNDER NORTHERLY WIND REGIME W/ DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE OVER PRECIP OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...MAINLY OVER HIR TRRN. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND EXITING LOW WILL KEEP TIGHT GRADIENT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS BUT LESSENING GOING INTO EVENING HRS FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF -RW FOR VALLEY LOCALES WITH SCT -SW/-RW OVER HIR TRRN. SNOW ACCUM AROUND AN INCH OR SO WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NE VT CLOSEST TO EXITING LOW. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 40S TO MID 50S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S IN HIR TRRN TO THE LOW 30S ELSEWHERE. LOW NUMBERS AIDED BY CAA AHEAD OF SFC RIDGE COMBINED W/ CLRING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 352 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ANTICIPATED...WITH CHANGEABLE WX EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...TYPICAL OF SPRINGTIME ACRS THE NE CONUS. DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WL BE LIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA ON THURSDAY...WITH BRISK NW WINDS. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN THE MORNING...MAY PRODUCE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY ACRS THE MTNS. SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FOR THURS AFTN INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS START BTWN -4C AND -6C AT 12Z THURS...BUT WARM BTWN +2C AND +4C BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS PROFILE WL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE U30S TO L40S MTNS TO U40S TO M50S VALLEYS...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. LATEST 12Z GFS CONTS TO SUPPORT A DEVELOPING DEEP CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION ACRS THE NE CONUS...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WX AND COOL CONDITIONS. THIS SUPPORT WOULD SUPPORT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT THRU NEXT MONDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40/L50S VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST PATTERN CONTINUING ACRS THE NE CONUS. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT A CHC OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMER/DRIER WX BY MONDAY. EITHER SOLUTION SUPPORTS BLW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND...ITS JUST A QUESTION OF THE AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE TRRN DRIVEN PRECIP CHCS LIKELY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH AT BTV/PBG FOR THIS POTENTIAL WITH PREVAILING -RA AT MSS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU 12Z TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BUT INCREASING AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS LIKELY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES KMSS BY 15Z TUESDAY...WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR VISIBILTY. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH DAY BRINGING WITH IT A LINE OF MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CANT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER AND +RA RIGHT ALONG THE LINE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILTY AND CEILINGS AS THE FRONT PASSES. OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAYY THROUGH FRIDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE OF PRECIP. IN ADDITION...A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WL DEVELOP BY 03Z WEDS. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JN NEAR TERM...HANSON SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER/NF

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