Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 062005 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 305 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH SEASONABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN THAT WILL SEE OFF AND ON LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1227 PM EST SATURDAY...RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND PARTS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECTING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE NOTED SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH HIGHER COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FIELDS ON THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED BTV 4KM AFTER 18Z. SO A COUPLE OF BURST ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY DRY...SO BEST POTENTIAL OF A LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S VALLEYS. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VT...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE OBS SHOW MSS DOWN TO 1/2SM IN MODERATE SNOW WITH HIGHGATE BRIEFLY DOWN TO 3/4SM IN LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH GENERAL LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. WATER VAPOR SHOWS BETTER MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND 5H SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH GENERAL DRYING AND LESS DYNAMICS ALOFT. HOWEVER...WITH COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROF AND SOME SURFACE WARMING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WILL HELP TO PRODUCE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHC/LIKELY WITH ANY ACCUMULATION AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE...ONLY A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE VALLEYS WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 326 AM EST SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS EAST OF JAMES BAY IN CANADA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE 925-800MB FLOW TURNS WESTERLY AND WE COULD SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK THAT GENERATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD INTO VERMONT AND SEE GENERALLY CLOUD SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. THE SURFACE FRONT FROM THE LOW OVER JAMES BAY DOESN`T LOOK TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO VERMONT OR NEW YORK BUT THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT RIDES ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AS IT CROSSES INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK BY LATE MORNING EXPECT A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING USHER IN LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BRING 925MB TEMPS UP BY AROUND 4-5 DEGC INTO THE -3C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SUPPORTS DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE FLOW THIS EVENING WILL TURN MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT JUST TO THE NORTH NEAR MONTREAL. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IF SOME OF THAT SHALLOW AIR GETS TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NEW YORK AND CANADA. I DONT EXPECT IT TO HAPPEN SO THE COLDER AIR SHOULD STAY JUST TO THE NORTH AND OUR LOWS THIS EVENING WILL BE IN THE MID 20S WHICH IS WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS OF SINGLE DIGITS. && .SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WEAKENING FRONT AND GENERALLY WASH IT OUT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HAVE JUST KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY EARLY SUNDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LIES BETWEEN 2 SYSTEMS. A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST SUNDAY AND MOVES NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N 70W) EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE REGION WILL LIE IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN 2 SYSTEMS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 304 PM EST SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GIVE THE NORTH COUNTRY A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENHANCED AT TIMES BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WHICH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR ANY BOUNDARIES/FRONTS TO ENHANCE FORCING...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT WE DO RECEIVE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE MINOR. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR. ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR...BUT BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT MSS THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...AND AT SLK THROUGH 00Z. MAINLY VFR CIGS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS REST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE AT BTV/PBG WHERE BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS SLK/MSS HOLDING ON TO MVFR CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN TAF SITES 10-18Z SUNDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FROM MPV SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20 KTS AT MSS/SLK/BTV. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT AND THEN TURN LIGHT NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS

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