Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 160755 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 255 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure will build east from the Great Lakes overnight and will remain over the north country through Tuesday morning. A mixed precipitation event is expected from late Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, followed by warmer and drier weather from Thursday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1145 PM EST Sunday...No significant change made to current forecast with this update. Refreshed some cloud grids to capture lake effect moisture lifting into Southern Saint Lawrence Valley and mid/upper level clouds across northern VT. Otherwise...temps ranging from near 0f at slk/nek to 20f immediate cpv. All covered well in current grids. 1031mb high pres centered directly over the Champlain Valley this evening is providing most of the area with clear skies and light winds. Still some clouds lingering across the NEK and watching some lake effect clouds moving toward southern SLV attm. This lake clouds and increasing southerly winds on backside of departing high pres will result in temps slowly warming across the SLV and dacks by 06z and across the CPV by early Monday morning. Have trimmed back lows by several degrees based on current temps. Generally thinking lows range from -5f SLK/NEK to 10 to 15F Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. Otherwise...rest of forecast in good shape. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 205 PM EST Sunday...Generally quiet conditions are expected for Monday night through the morning on Tuesday as surface high pressure persists over the North Country. For Monday night, weak shortwave energy passing north of the area combined with some lingering low level moisture may spark a few snow showers across our northern tier zones, but most of the area should remain dry under partly cloudy skies. Tuesday begins a warming trend that we`ll see through the week with highs pushing well into the 30`s area-wide with southerly flow increasing ahead of our next system. Surface low pressure lifts northward through the Great Lakes region Tuesday and precipitation will spread across our forecast area from Southwest to Northeast during the late afternoon and evening. Strong vorticity advection and deep moisture, therefore expect precipitation to be widespread. Early Wednesday morning a secondary low will form off the New England coast and bulk of the energy shifts to this low center and wraps colder air back into the system. Have continued with previous forecaster`s thinking that will see more of a sleet and snow mix rather than freezing rain...only exception being the Saint Lawrence valley where some low level Northeasterly flow will get trapped. From Tuesday evening through the overnight feel that we`ll see a mix of sleet and snow with some rain at the onset Tuesday afternoon and evening. Best chance for sleet and snow will be across Eastern Vermont and the Eastern Dacks. We`ll probably see more rain in the Champlain and Saint Lawrence valleys, perhaps freezing rain in the Saint Lawrence valley as I previously mentioned. Warm air advection continues Wednesday with original low lifting north of the region and precipitation should change to all rain during this timeframe. As secondary low strengthens later in the day Wednesday and overnight colder air aloft will wrap into the system and precipitation should change over to snow. Still several days away so will iron out the details as we get closer and have better higher resolution data to look at. At this stage, looks like Wednesday morning will have a messy commute. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 255 AM EST Monday...The middle to later portions of the week will generally feature high pressure with very mild temperatures, variable clouds and mainly dry weather. This idea is broadly supported by a variety of global ensemble guidance so forecast confidence remains above average. A weak upper trough passage Wednesday night/Thursday morning will bring the best shot at scattered snow/rain showers during the period, otherwise minimal pops will be offered through Sunday. Mean 925 mb temperatures generally average from -1 to -3C through Saturday, then climb slightly by Sunday. Adding a customary +7C to these values for January yields max temps from the mid 30s to lower 40s through the 4 day period with overnight lows in the 20s to around 30 in milder valley locales. Of course, any radiative effects that do develop during overnight periods of partial clearing could yield higher variability in the overnight lows than currently shown, but this is not an uncommon occurrence. Regardless, daily mean departures should average some +8 to +15 deg above normal for this time of year continuing the larger background trend throughout the winter so far.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Through 06Z Tuesday...High pressure is over the North Country and will remain over the area through the rest of Monday. Mainly VFR conditions with scattered high clouds expected through the period. Only exception will be a period of SCT/BKN MVFR cigs possible at KSLK and to a lesser extent KMSS in the 07-13Z time frame as lingering lake moisture from Lake Ontario is advected northward on developing light southerly return flow. These clouds will be thinning over time so after sunrise should be in the dissipation process. Winds will be light and variable overnight and then increase to 10-15 knots out of the south-southwest with the St Lawrence Valley seeing gusts up to 20 knots. 06Z Tuesday - 18Z Tuesday...VFR with surface high pressure 18Z Tuesday - 00Z Friday...Trending MVFR with intervals of IFR in widespread precipitation 00z Friday onwards...VFR as high pressure builds into the region. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...Taber SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG/MV

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