Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 250810 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 410 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Gusty downslope winds are expected today, especially across the southern and central western slopes of the Green Mountains with isolated power outages possible. A band of light rain will lift from south to north across the North Country today...with rainfall amounts generally less than a quarter of an inch. Steadier rain will redevelop tonight and continue into Friday. The upcoming weekend with feature a dry Saturday with some scattered showers possible late Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 402 AM EDT Thursday...Wind advisory in effect from 11 AM Thursday to Midnight for localized gusts to 50 mph along the central and southern western slopes of the Green Mountains. Forecast concerns today are winds...followed by timing of light rain showers. Water vapor shows deep closed full latitude mid/upper level trof across the Ohio Valley with strong feed of deep layer moisture over the eastern conus. Surface analysis places 994mb low pres over central Ohio this morning...with developing gradient associated with departing 1015mb high pres and increasing 925mb to 850mb wind profiles. Winds are tricky today...as local btv 2 and 4km...along with the latest 3km NAM show some uncertainty in magnitude and areal coverage of strongest wind fields. Unlike the wind event on May 5th, the 925mb to 850mb winds are 10 to 15 knots weaker on all solutions...along with weaker low pres and departing high pres. BTV 2km and Nam 3km continue to show strongest core of 925mb winds of 45 to 55 knots across central/southern Greens between 18z-00z today. Investigating sounding data closely shows bottom of the mix layer around 40 to 42 knots at Rutland...but thinking with some downslope warming and better mixing...some slightly stronger gusts are possible. This thinking also matches the surface gust potential off the NAM 3km...which shows values between 40 and 45 knots across the central/southern western slopes of the Green Mountains...but values quickly taper off over the northern Greens...as core of strongest 925mb winds weakens. Thinking gusts between 45 and 50 mph looks good from just east of Danby to Wallingford to just east of Rutland to East Middlebury with 35 to 45 mph for Nashville/Underhill areas. Some isolated power outages possible...along with some downed small trees and limbs...but less impact than the May 5th event. Models in good agreement with band of warm air advection rain showers lifting from south to north across our cwa between 15z and 20z today. Expecting a 2 to 4 hour window of mainly light rain showers...which will be highly terrain driven in terms of qpf placement...given the low level wind fields. Qpf will range from <0.10 along the downsloping regions of the western slopes/eastern CPV/NEK and western dacks...with a 0.25 or so on the southeast upslope areas of the eastern dacks/southeast greens. The initial surge of favorable lift/upper level divergence will be north of our cwa by 20z today...resulting in much less areal coverage of precip and mainly over the se upslope regions. Meanwhile...water vapor shows potent 5h vort in the flow aloft over central NC...will help to enhance shower/storms across the mid Atlantic States this aftn. This deeper moisture and stronger lift will help to redevelop another round of rain showers aft 06z tonight. Expecting heavier qpf values with amounts between 0.25 and 0.50...mainly CPV and points east. Temps mainly upper 50s to upper 60s today and holding in the 50s overnight with clouds/precip. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 409 AM EDT Thursday...Vertically stacked low pressure system moves through eastern New England to start the short term. The system is located over Massachusetts Friday morning tracking northeast. Precipitation will be widespread across the region with the heaviest amounts over Eastern Vermont. Chances for precipitation will diminish from west to east by Friday afternoon with most activity relegated to the higher terrain and NEK. QPF looks to range from about 0.2" out west and 0.4" across the eastern counties. Temperatures will be seasonably cool with highs only in the upper 50s to low 60s and lows in the 40s. Saturday will see high pressure build in to start the Memorial Day weekend. Diminishing cloud cover and warmer temperatures will lead to quiet and fair day with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 409 AM EDT Thursday...The long term will continue the fair and quiet conditions as we move further into Memorial Day weekend. During the day on Sunday, high pressure ridge crests over the area bringing another day of nice conditions for a large bulk of the day. As the ridge shifts east, cloud cover increases in the afternoon and evening as an upper level low pressure system tracks west of the Great Lakes and lifts a warm front through the North Country during the overnight hours. late-morning to early afternoon Monday will see a pre- frontal trough will swing through with shortwave energy, bringing with it showers with perhaps a thunderstorm or two. The later half of Tuesday will see some brief breaks in showers before the cold front swings through the region Wednesday bringing with it another chance for showers. High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...Aviation concerns will be gusty southeast winds at Rutland today...followed by lowering cigs with some mvfr conditions expected by this evening. As low pres approaches...gusty southeast winds will develop with localized gusts to 40 knots possible at Rut between 17z-01z today. Expect areas of moderate to severe turbulence...especially near the terrain. Meanwhile...a ribbon of rain will move from south to north across our taf sites btwn 15-21z with mainly vfr conditions...trending toward mvfr cigs at mpv/mss/pbg by 00z this evening. As winds shift to the north...expect lowering cigs at btv/rut by 06z Friday. Downslope southeast flow will keep vfr conditions at rut/btv through today. Additional showers are expected to redevelop aft 04z tonight and continue into Friday. Outlook... Friday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...RA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA. Memorial Day: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight for VTZ011-017>019. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Taber SHORT TERM...MV LONG TERM...MV AVIATION...Taber

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