Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 260539 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 139 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Deep moisture along with a weak wave of low pressure aloft will produce variable clouds along with the chance of a passing shower, mainly south tonight into Friday morning. Behind this system a return to dry, late summer warmth is expected for Friday afternoon into Saturday of the upcoming weekend. The next chance of showers will occur by Sunday afternoon into Sunday night with another weak front, followed by more warm and dry weather for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1259 AM EDT Friday...Based on satellite imagery have tweaked the sky grids to better reflect current situation of generally clear skies in Vermont and more noticeable cloud cover in New York. This sharper gradient of clouds should lead to more fog development over Vermont given clear skies...light winds...and high dew points indicating plenty of low level moisture. Going forecast of just a chance of showers during the early morning hours looks good as weak shortwave moves across the region...but it appears more active convection will remain well south of the area. On Friday the weak mid-level trough will exit east with any morning showers/sprinkles ending by noon under gradually clearing skies east to west. Synoptic background flow remains southwesterly with neutral height falls indicative of little airmass change. Averaged model 925 mb thermal progs from 18-21Z are in the 19-22C range supporting late afternoon highs mainly from 80 to 86F with perhaps a few upper 80s in the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys. Despite the warmth dewpoints will be gradually lowering in the upper 50s to lower 60s by late afternoon so humidity levels will feel tolerable. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 317 PM EDT Thursday...Fairly quiet as general ridging aloft and at the surface will be in firm control. Zero/Zilch/Zippo PoPs the entire period. Temperatures will continue to be above normal (both day and night). Some differences for Saturday temperatures between the GFS and NAM. NAM is a few degrees warmer because it is slightly faster in moving the ridge to our east and allowing a more west/southwest flow aloft to develop. Either way, the differences are only a few degrees, so I split the difference. Lots of upper 70s to lower 80s with some mid 80s in the southern valleys. Hopefully everyone can take advantage of the weather and enjoy it! && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 317 PM EDT Thursday...12z guidance suite is in fairly good agreement. Really only 1 organized system for the period, and that will be an upper trough that will slide across the region late Sunday/early Monday. The flow pattern is progressive, so the showers will pass across the region fairly quickly. Minimal instability as well (especially since the timing looks to be overnight), so only a low chance of any thunderstorm. Looking at primarily rain showers. Other than that, the region will be in a west/northwest flow around a large ridge centered over the mid-west. With the trajectory of the flow, temperatures will remain above normal (a solid 4-7F degrees). Still some hints that a weak disturbance may zip down on that northwest flow mid week and perhaps spark a shower or two. However, 12z GFS and ECMWF differ in timing and details, so have only token (15-25%) chances of showers for mid-week. That means a much higher chance of mostly sunny and dry conditions. All-in-all, it`s fairly typical to have a stretch of this kind of weather at this point late in the summer. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
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Through 06Z Saturday...Look for VFR/MVFR conditions through about 15z this morning as plenty of low level moisture exists ahead of an approaching cold front. This low level moisture will help to create areas of fog to help reduce visibilities. In addition... scattered showers ahead of the cold front will be moving across the area which will also contribute to the MVFR conditions. The front exits the area to the east around 15z and winds go from south-southwest to west-northwest at speeds generally around 10 knots. Its at this point that drier air moves in and VFR conditions quickly develop over the entire area for the remainder of the period. Outlook 06Z Saturday through Tuesday... 06Z Saturday through 00Z Monday...VFR/high pressure. 00Z Monday through 00Z Tuesday...VFR with scattered showers/MVFR possible. 00Z Tuesday onward...VFR/high pressure.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...Evenson/JMG SHORT TERM...Nash LONG TERM...Nash AVIATION...Evenson/JMG

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