-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 122330
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
730 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL LATE WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH
COUNTRY BRINGING HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS...AND COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. TRAVEL IS NOT ADVISED.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING
LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 723 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LATE WINTER STORM ONGOING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL RESULT IN NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WINTER STORM WARNINGS
REMAIN IN PLACE.

FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THIS UPDATE. SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS A 984 MB LOW CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA PA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. A ZONE OF INTENSE 850-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS LIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
PRODUCING BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW IN THE COLD AIR...AT TIMES
ACCUMULATING AT RATES IN EXCESS OF 1-2"/HR. WORST OF THE
CONDITIONS TO TAKE PLACE NOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
HEAVY SNOW BANDS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND ACCUMULATING AT SIMILAR
SNOWFALL RATES. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS IN A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN
WINDSOR COUNTY WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN IN THE FORM OF RAIN
WITH TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST
COLDER AIR WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD AND TRANSITION ANY RAIN OVER TO
HEAVY SNOW...MOST LIKELY TAKING PLACE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. I DID LOWER ACCUMULATIONS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY IN THE
SPRINGFIELD/SOUTHERN WINDSOR COUNTY AREA DUE TO MORE RAIN BUT
STILL LOOKING AT A WARNING- CRITERIA EVENT THERE WITH THE
TRANSITION OVER TO HEAVY SNOW. IT STILL APPEARS THAT CENTRAL
VERMONT/CENTRAL GREENS AREA LOOKS TO SEE THE MOST SNOW...LYING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STRONGEST LOW- LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT.
REGARDLESS OF ACCUMULATIONS THOUGH...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY WITH TRAVEL STRONGLY DISCOURAGED
UNLESS IT IS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST HEADING INTO THURSDAY MORNING...HANGING ON LONGEST
ACROSS VERMONT. THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN MAY
CONTINUE TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW WELL INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SOME CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE AND BTV4 WRF
FORECAST FROUDE NUMBERS BELOW 0.25. ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PULLS AWAY AND LOW AND MID
LEVELS DRY OUT. GUSTY WINDS FROM 20 - 35 MPH CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD WITH VARYING
TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC THURSDAY NGT WILL
BRING AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS IN VT...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY SLIDES EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND WARMING TEMPS WILL RETURN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...WHILE A CLIPPER TYPE LOW SKIRTS THE SLV BY LATE FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE M30S FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO WARM
SATURDAY TO NEAR 40 IN THE CPV AND 30S ELSEWHERE. THE CLIPPER LOW
WILL BRING CHC POPS TO THE AREA STARTING FRIDAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH PSBL RAIN MIXING IN THE VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS NW AND KEEPING THREAT OF AT
LEAST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LVL THROUGH GLANCES THE
NRN TIER OF THE FA. BEHIND THE FRONT...COLDER TEMPS RETURN ON
SUNDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO U20S. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPS
FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOWS REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SOME
NEGATIVE DIGITS AS WELL. COLD NW FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY SE...DRYING
THINGS OUT OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NGT INTO MONDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE ON PSBL NEXT STORM APPROACHING LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR IN SNOW AND BLSN ACROSS
THE REGION AS DEEP STORM PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM 04Z ONWARD...BUT
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN -SN/BLSN CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ON THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME. CONDS TO TREND
VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY 21-00Z. WINDS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY AND QUITE GUSTY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD LEADING TO
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 10
TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...ABATING SLOWLY AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BRIEF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS
GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...20-25 KTS AT TIMES.
ISOLD -SHSN...MAINLY FOR SLK/MPV.

MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ026>031-
     034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG/KGM