Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 140534 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 134 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY...MAINLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS...ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT AND AREAS SOUTH. THERE IS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ON TUESDAY THOUGH MOSTLY ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 120 AM EDT MONDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS/SKY/POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. PRECIP HAS EXITED THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO THE REGION WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. STILL SOME BKN-OVC SKIES ACROSS THE DACKS AND EAST/SOUTHEAST VERMONT BUT THESE AREAS SHOULD SLOWLY TREND TOWARDS CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE OVERNIGHT RANGING THROUGH THE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS NOT FAR BEHIND. IT`LL BE MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 450 PM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL BE DRIER AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF VERMONT BY MORNING. PWATS WILL FALL TO 1-1.5 INCHES...WITH HIGHEST PWATS BEING OVER SERN VT. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PSBL THUNDERSTORMS AS DEVELOPING SFC LOW NEAR LAKE HURON LIFTS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. SOME DEBATE AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE AS TO HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE FRONT WILL LIFT...BUT INCREASING INSTABILITY IN MUCH LESS CLOUDY SKY WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...FROM ADKS ACROSS THE SRN CPV AND CENTRAL VT. THIS AFFECTS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE AS NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...EDGING 1000 J/KG OF CAPE INTO SRN/CENTRAL VT WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4. HAVE INCLUDED CHC OF THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR THE MID AFTERNOON. BUT NORTHERN HALF OF CWA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U70S-L80S. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THINGS WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS SFC TROUGH/LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EWD. COME EARLY TUESDAY...WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE STREWN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...PROVIDING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN MOISTENING S/SW FLOW. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES DURING THIS TIME...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFT FURTHER INTO THE REGION. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS TO OUR NW...DELAYING THE APPROACH OF 250MB JET TIL TUESDAY NGT. AT LOWER LEVELS...SHEAR WILL BE ABUNDANT...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50KTS MOVING OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND INCREASED MOISTURE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS...ESP ACROSS VT AS IT WILL HAVE THE BEST INSTABILITY. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BEING SLOW TO ARRIVE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THREAT OF SVR LOW. BUT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 10 KM WITH PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES IN AREAS MAY RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL. FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH VT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND IT AS PWATS FALL TO AROUND HALF AN INCH. EXPECT PRECIP TO SIGNIFICANTLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 430 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC PROVINCE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL NOT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND THIS COULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...SHOWERS HAVE EXITED EAST OF THE TAF SITES AND SKIES ARE BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND SATURATED LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO SOME IFR FOG AT SLK/MPV...MAINLY 09-12Z. VFR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH SKC- SCT050. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT WITH BKN-OVC080-100. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. INTERVALS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ISOLD -SHRA POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK/MSS 06-12Z THURSDAY AND AGAIN 06-12Z FRIDAY.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF/KGM NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...BANACOS

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