Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 241705 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 105 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON EACH NIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 102 PM EDT THURSDAY...FCST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS AFTN WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOWERING RH VALUES. RED FLAG WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH LATEST 1PM OBS AT VSF SHOWING RH DOWN TO 32% AND WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. STILL EXPECTING RH VALUES TO DROP BTWN 20 AND 30% THIS AFTN IN THE WARNING AREA. VIS SATL STILL SHOWING CLOUDS ACRS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT WITH A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK. THESE SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS AFTN...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT DEVELOPS FROM LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. TEMPS WL WARM ANOTHER 2 TO 4 DEGREES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S MTNS TO M50S WARMER VALLEYS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 505 AM EDT THURSDAY...LVL JET QUICKLY EXITS E THIS EVENING...AS SFC RIDGE SETS UP TO CREST OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN LGT TO CALM WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY OVERNGT MIN TEMPS. EXPECT VALLEYS TO SEE FRIDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE M20S...WITH HIR TRRN IN THE MID TEENS TO L20S. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK ENE...INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS TO EDGE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL UNSURE AS MODELS SUGGEST DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM TAKING MOST OF ITS ENERGY OFF THE LONG ISLAND COAST. THIS WOULD AFFECT HOW MUCH QPF THE NORTH COUNTRY WOULD RECEIVE. EXPECT MOISTURE TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...MAKING FOR A DREARY FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BEFORE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 407 AM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...BUT THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW...SO HAVE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT. A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES FOR THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FORECAST. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ECMWF MODEL HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH A DRY FORECAST INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... AS ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTING THE REGION WILL BE UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...GFS MODEL SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE OTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER EAST IN THE ATLANTIC THAN DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL. GFS MODEL BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR NOW...WILL USE SUPER BLEND POPS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP THROUGH 1130Z THURSDAY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME...SO EXPECTING A PERIOD OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA DEEPENS. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY. AFTER 23Z THURSDAY EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 12Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE. MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 930 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPDATED FOR RED FLAG WARNING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT ZNS BELOW 1500 FEET AND EASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 1500 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE RECENT DRY SPELL...EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES. MOST THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE SEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST FIVE DAYS...THIS HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN UP HAS NOT OCCURRED. MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE FUELS AND LEAF LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL WET. MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND NORTHERN NY HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW PACK IS STILL ON THE GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED THREAT. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS AFTN. ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE PSBL ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND STRONGER LOW LVL JET NEAR SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT. IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH VALUES WL DROP BTWN 15% AND 25% BTWN 1 PM AND 5PM ACRS NRN NY...THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VT. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL WILL ALLOW ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY...AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY BE ATTEMPTING TODAY. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR LOCAL FIRE WARDEN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ009>012. NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM/TABER NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF FIRE WEATHER...TABER/KGM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.