Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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253 FXUS61 KBTV 091800 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 100 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered snow showers and flurries will continue across the North Country this afternoon and evening before surface high pressure builds into the region on Saturday. While drier conditions are expected to begin the weekend, skies will remain fairly cloudy with scattered flurries and temperatures running well below normal. A warm front approaching the area Sunday night will bring snow back into the region early Monday morning, likely making for a messy morning commute.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 100 PM EST Friday...Afternoon forecast remains on track with scattered snow showers continuing, most persistent across the higher terrain, and temperatures holding steady in the 20s for most locations under cloudy skies. Winds remain gusty up towards 25 mph making it feel like it`s in the teens. A nice wintry feeling to end the work week. For tonight, will mainly be offering a persistence forecast as mid/upper level flow remains out of the west/northwest combining with ample low level moisture to continue to produce widely broken to overcast skies. Should see snow shower activity start to diminish though as surface high pressure currently moving into the Ohio Valley approaches, but don`t be surprised to see some isolated to scattered flurries around, especially along the higher terrain of the Adirondacks and northern Vermont. With mostly cloudy skies in the forecast, strong cold air advection ahead of the approaching high will be hampered some, limiting temperatures from plummeting too far below seasonal normals. Should be one of the coldest nights of the season thus far though with widespread teens in the deeper valleys, and single digit values elsewhere. Aforementioned surface high pressure builds into the region tomorrow with generally partly sunny skies and scattered flurries around. Temps rebound from chilly morning lows, but will still top out well below normal only in the upper teens to mid 20s. Across the higher summits, temps won`t budge out of the single digits, so if you`re heading to the hills for some fresh powder make sure to bundle up!
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 459 AM EST Friday...West to northwest flow and some weak vorticity embedded in the mid level flow may see an isolated snow shower concentrated around the Northern Greens. Some mid level ridging follows on Saturday night with brief period of ridging at the surface as well. Temperatures continue to be below normal by approx 5 to 10 degrees. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 459 AM EST Friday...Late Sunday through Sunday night sees snow spread across the area in strong isentropic lift associated with low pressure system approaching from southern Lake Michigan area. 00Z ECMWF and GFS showing fairly good agreement as sfc low tracks to eastern Great Lakes come early Monday, transitioning to more of a coastal low Monday evening/night near Nova Scotia. Differences in exact track and timing remain with low level thermal profiles differing as well. Overall expect bulk of precip to be in the form of snow starting Sunday evening through Monday morning, possibly some wintry mix Monday during the day for southern Champlain Valley and south central VT. Cold air at all levels rushes back in Monday evening as the sfc low becomes coastal. Models indicate heaviest QPF to occur Monday morning, making for a sloppy commute to say the least. As wintry precip continues all day Monday, expect Monday afternoon commute to also be affected. Wrap around moisture behind departing sfc low in west to NW flow will see snow tapering off Tuesday morning, concentrated around the higher terrain. Storm total snowfall forecast currently sitting at widespread 4 to 7 inches possible through 06Z Tuesday. Lastly, wind could also be an issue on Monday as strong southerly 850mb jet of 30-40kts could persist through Tuesday. Next feature will bring some nuisance snow to the area Tuesday night, ahead of large mid level closed low moving southeastward across central Canada. GFS and ECMWF vary greatly on the track and timing of mid level low and therefore possible surface reflections and associated precipitation potential. GFS remains more active over the North COuntry and ECMWF further south and east, focusing on more coastal systems. Therefore, lots of uncertainty beyond Tuesday. Colder temperatures also in question beyond Tuesday as ECMWF more progressive with large cold pool moving into the North Country faster and stronger. Overall 925mb temps in the negative teens to - 20C look to close out the week. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
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Through 18Z Saturday...Conditions will be largely VFR through the period under BKN-OVC cigs. Scattered snow showers mainly affecting KSLK and KMPV will continue to provide brief periods of MVFR cigs and IFR vsby, mainly through 00z before dissipating. Gusty winds this afternoon up towards 25kts gradually abate tonight, returning to 5-10kts on Saturday. Outlook 18Z Saturday through Wednesday... 18Z Saturday through 06Z Monday...VFR under high pressure. 06z Monday through 00z Tuesday...Widespread MVFR cigs and IFR vsby in light snow. 00Z Tuesday through 00z Thursday...Mix of MVFR/VFR cigs with scattered snow showers locally reducing vsby to IFR at times, mainly at KSLK/KMPV.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Lahiff/MV

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