-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 061719
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1219 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ARE FORESEEN OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1219 PM EST FRIDAY...IT`S A GORGEOUS YET COOL DAY OUT THERE
TO END THE WORK WEEK WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER ACROSS THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY GUSTING CLOSE TO 20KTS ON CHANNELED FLOW WHICH
HAS USHERED SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS IN WITH OGDENSBURG
REPORTING 21F THIS HOUR. IN GENERAL, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE
SAME GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AREA-WIDE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S WHICH UNFORTUNATELY IS 14-18DEG BELOW THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR THIS POINT IN MARCH.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING
MID-UPPER CLOUDS TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH-SW
WINDS (5-10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS)...IT WON/T
BE NEARLY AS COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. LATER ARRIVAL OF CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...AND THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL SPOTS
NEAR ZERO TO SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO BEFORE LEVELING OFF DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM/NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD MID
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING BASED ON NAM AND LOCAL BTV MESOSCALE
WRF RUNS, AND PASSAGE OF BEST MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION. CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...OVERALL MOISTURE
IS QUITE LIMITED WITH PW VALUES 0.2-0.25". THUS...ONLY LOOKING AT
A DUSTING TO 2" OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN NY COUNTIES AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF VERMONT (ISOLD 3" AMT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN
SUMMITS). HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY 25-30F.

BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST STRATUS LAYER WILL LIKELY LINGER IN MOST
SECTIONS ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
RELATIVELY QUIET OTHERWISE WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
DESPITE CLOUDS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S
IN MOST VALLEY SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...WORK WEEK STARTS WITH CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVES ACROSS IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, SOME WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE TO OUR SOUTH AND SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR PRECIP MINIMAL. MORE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HUDSONS BAY, BUT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL ONLY SKIRT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HOWEVER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE COLDER AIR AND NW FLOW.

GENERALLY LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP INFLUX OF WARMER
AIR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE INTO THE M30S MONDAY, INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MIN TEMPS WILL EXPERIENCE A SIMILAR TREND WITH TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT WARMING INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED
NW FLOW ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY AND
BACK INTO THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP MID TO
LATE MORNING AT 5-10KTS WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AT KMSS UP TO 20KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS ARE FUNNELED DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. INCREASING VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AHEAD OF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH AT KMSS AND KSLK STARTING AROUND 09Z/10Z AS THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO AFFECT TERMINALS AFTER 12Z AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM