-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
521
FXUS61 KBTV 021841
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
241 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A large upper level low will shift southeast on Thursday, which
along with a cold front will produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Thursday. Cooler and drier weather will move in
for July 4th, with pleasant conditions expected. A warming
trend starts on Saturday, with highs back into the 90s by early
next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 238 PM EDT Wednesday...The focus for this term will be the
threat for showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Latest indications
are pointing toward scattered strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms, capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

A fairly vigorous upper shortwave trough will track into the Great
Lakes tomorrow, while a cold front pushes southeastward toward the
Northeast. Moisture will be somewhat limited, but cool temperatures
aloft and daytime heating should be enough to allow for at least
moderate instability of 800-1200 J/kg. Combined with increasing
forcing/lift from the incoming trough, expect showers and
thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon, likely first over
northern areas, and then shifting south through the day. There`s
still some differences in CAM solutions as to how widespread
coverage will be and exact timing of the front and a couple of
associated surface troughs. Meanwhile, a 50 kt mid-level jet will
aid in increasing shear, with 0-6km values of 35 to 45 kt. Note that
some CAMs are indicating very steep low-level lapse rates with DCAPE
values approaching 1000 J/kg, while others have more moisture and
lesser lapse rates, but higher potential for wet microbursts.
Regardless, expect gusty winds will be the main threat for any
stronger storms. Brief heavy rainfall will also be possible, but
activity should be progressive enough to limit any flooding
potential. We remain in a Marginal Risk in SPC`s latest Day 2
outlook, which seems reasonable. Even if storms do not become
strong/severe, they will still be capable of producing deadly
lightning. The main timing for thunderstorms will be roughly 2pm to
7 pm, but note that some additional activity could linger into the
evening hours with the final trough/frontal passage, perhaps as late
as 10 pm. If you have outdoor plans, please stay weather aware and
follow the latest forecast updates.

Otherwise, tomorrow should be a little cooler than today, especially
in northern areas where shower activity, increased cloud cover, and
earlier frontal passage will keep highs in the mid/upper 70s.
Elsewhere, highs will be in the low/mid 80s. Also, we`ve noted some
wildfire smoke drifting south out of Canada today. It`s mainly been
aloft, leading to milky/hazy skies in portions of northern NY.
Concentrations look to increase tomorrow, and like today, mainly
remain aloft. However, there could be enough near-surface smoke to
create hazy conditions at times.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 238 PM EDT Wednesday...The upper low will swing by just to our
northeast on Friday. Although a couple of showers can`t be ruled out
over the Northeast Kingdom, a warm layer above 5000 ft will limit
any chance for significant precipitation. Overall, it should be a
pretty pleasant Fourth of July though, with partly to mostly sunny
skies expected. Highs will be in the 70s, coolest in the Northeast
Kingdom and Adirondacks, with northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Clouds
will dissipate with sunset and winds will subside, making for a
perfect evening for viewing fireworks. Lows will dip into the 50s in
most areas, with some of the colder spots getting down into the
upper 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 238 PM EDT Wednesday...Focus for the extended forecast will be
on heat Sunday and Monday, then a frontal passage later Monday
through mid week. Temperatures will continue a warming trend
Saturday and Sunday with ridging cresting across the region. Model
guidance has largely slowed progression of an approaching wave
keeping ridging over the North Country Sunday. Ensembles favor
building a sharper ridge and deterministic models also show this
trend. As such temperatures were increased back into the upper 80s
to mid 90s Sunday. Should this trend continue and the ridge become
sharper as some guidance suggest, temperatures may need to be
increased further. 50th percentile NBM shows upper 90s for the
Champlain Valley. Indeed, the current forecast of 95 at the BTV
airport is below the 25th percentile NBM, but generally trending in
the most likely direction. Heat will linger Monday as a slow moving
front is progged to drop out of Canada. Character of the front
remains uncertain, but heat coupled with height falls points to
increased shower/thunderstorm chances Monday afternoon through
Tuesday. Fortunately, some reprieve from the heat is likely Tuesday
into mid week, but without strongly progressive flow aloft, the
boundary may slow keeping dew points higher than usual with
potential for a few showers lingering as well.

Otherwise, tomorrow should be a little cooler than today,
especially in northern areas where shower activity, increased
cloud cover, and earlier frontal passage will keep highs in the
mid/upper 70s. Elsewhere, highs will be in the low/mid 80s.
Also, we`ve noted some wildfire smoke drifting south out of
Canada today. It`s mainly been aloft, leading to milky/hazy
skies over portions of northern NY/VT. Concentrations look to
increase tomorrow, and like today, smoke should mainly remain
aloft. However, there could be enough near-surface smoke to
create hazy conditions at times.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions will persist for most
terminals with about a 20% chance of fog at MSS and MPV
overnight. Winds will generally be southerly today with some
terrain alignment and channeling for the St Lawrence and
northern Champlain Valley. Some gusts 12 to 20kts through 22Z
are likely at MSS and PBG. Mainly terrain driven wind flow is
expected overnight with lighter winds across the North Country.
Increasing clouds 06-12Z should limit fog chances with highest
chances in the southern St Lawrence Valley and right along the
Connecticut River. After 12Z, rain shower chances increase
north to south with 30% chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms 15-18Z.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Independence Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd