Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 290741 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 341 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the North Country overnight with a chance of rain or snow showers. There will be a slight chance for rain and snow showers on Wednesday, mainly over the high elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. A ridge of high pressure will build into the region on Thursday with mostly sunny skies expected. A low pressure area moving east across the Ohio valley will bring mixed wintry precipitation to the North Country late Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1108 PM EDT Tuesday...Patchy drizzle, isolated -RW, and low ceilings persist across the North Country this evening, with temps at 03Z mainly 34-38F. Main synoptic feature of note is the relatively compact, vertically stacked low exiting east of NJ. Main precipitation shield with this system will remain to our south. However, as the low tracks ewd, will see increasing N-NW winds, which will induce low-level CAA thru the remainder of the overnight. Gradually cooling thermal profiles will allow for a rain/snow mix as we move toward 04-05Z along the intl border, and elsewhere after 06Z. Activity will be quite light with orographics effects providing primary forcing mechanism. Despite the low- level CAA, continued cloud cover will help to keep temperatures up overnight with lows mainly in the lower 30s, except in the 20s over the higher elevations. The region will be under cold advection on Wednesday. expecting a slight chance for some rain or snow showers on Wednesday, mainly over the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 341 AM EDT Wednesday...Most active period of weather then affects the region by late Thursday night and especially Friday into Friday night as upper closed energy tracks east from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic region. The forecast remains quite complex in regard to precipitation timing, amounts and type with lower boundary layer thermal profiles playing a critical role through the period. This is not uncommon with early spring systems with subtle changes of 1 to 2 degrees either way potentially leading to large differences in sensible weather. For now will maintain our prior idea of snows arriving into our southwestern counties later Thursday night into mid morning on Friday before a transition to all rain in lower elevations, or rain/snow mix from 1000-2500 feet on Friday as precipitation shield advances into the remainder of the forecast area. At higher elevations above 2500 feet p-type may remain as all snow. Negligible amounts of sleet or freezing rain is expected. Lows Thursday night mainly in the 20s with afternoon highs on Friday from 35 to 40 below 1500 feet and 30 to 35 above that level. Bulk of precipitation then affects the area Friday night as warm thermal advection aloft will be peaking and as thermal profiles cool slightly a transition to all snow is expected after midnight. Amounts may be a bit tricky as flow trends southeasterly and some slight shadowing effects may occur. Time will tell. I was also cautious in leaning too high on our QPF given known model high bias during warm thermal advective events. Nonetheless the potential will exist for a light to moderate wet snow accumulation in many areas with higher amounts possible in elevated southern terrain. Did lean on the milder side of guidance given clouds and lack of appreciable low level advection - mainly lower to mid 30s (upper 20s at elevation). Please see our winter weather page at www.weather.gov/btv/winter for specific accumulation forecasts and probabilities. By Saturday widespread light snows taper to scattered rain/snow shower activity as system exits the Mid Atlantic coast and gradually loses influence. Any additional snow accumulations will be minor as late day temperatures top out in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 341 AM EDT Wednesday...Relatively quiet weather then returns by later Saturday into early next week with mean high pressure building back across the region. Any lingering rain/snow shower activity will wane in coverage, becoming more confined to northern higher terrain into Sunday as highs top out in the 40s. Temperatures will be similar on Monday with dry weather expected. The next threat of steadier precipitation potentially arrives toward the middle of next week with chances of rain and/or snow showers. Temperatures will remain at, or slightly above seasonal early April norms.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thursday...Variable flight conditions from VFR to LIFR will continue through 12-13z before all sites lift to MVFR except VFR at KMSS. Thereafter a gradual improvement at all sites to VFR is expected by the afternoon. Areas of fog and drizzle overnight generally dissipate after 12z as well, with some lingering rain/snow showers across central/northern portions of Vermont through about 18z. Winds calm/light overnight trend to the north/northwest at 5-15kts after 12z with some gusts up to 20kts possible from the Champlain Valley eastward through Vermont. Outlook 06Z Thursday through Sunday... 06Z Thursday through 12Z Thursday...Mainly VFR. Isolated MVFR and showers over higher terrain of NE VT. 12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday...VFR under high pressure. 12Z Friday through 00Z Monday...MVFR/IFR in periods of rain and snow. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...Banacos/WGH SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Lahiff

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