Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 011932 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 332 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SFC AND ALOFT. LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS LIMITED TO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID-UPR 60S. ELSEWHERE...COMBINATION OF LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS (UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S) AND SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE AREAWIDE TONIGHT. WILL AGAIN SEE SOME NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT AND WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 58-64F IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT IN THE MID 50S ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION. WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING WITH WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ALONG WITH STABLE PBL CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD 90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSSING THE AREA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT KSLK/KMPV TONIGHT AFTER 07Z. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL LIFT BY ABOUT 12-14Z AND LIGHT WINDS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME FG/BR AT MSS BUT HAVE LEFT OUT AT THIS TIME...NOT SURE IT WILL DEVELOP. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...NEILES

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.