Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 161917 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 317 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 305 PM EDT TUESDAY...A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES WILL END BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VERMONT AS PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. POPS NIL AFTER 23Z WITH LOWS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 40S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM. ANTICIPATE SOME DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG AFTER 04Z IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VERMONT...AND WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION. W-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL GENERALLY BECOME VARIABLE AT 5 MPH OR LESS BY LATE EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AFTER SUNSET. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 305 PM EDT TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT SUGGESTS GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY SW-W AT 5-8 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL BE WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK WAVE LOW ALONG A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION DURING WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING RH ACROSS NRN SECTIONS...ANTICIPATE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS/FILTERED SUNSHINE ACROSS NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL LOW PASS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SWD INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18-20Z THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND BTV-4KM WRF SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ALONG THE FRONT AS IT COMES THROUGH 06-15Z THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE 20-30 POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY NRN SECTIONS. WITH RELATIVELY DRY PBL CONDITIONS...BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. LOOK FOR A NWLY WIND SHIFT AND CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE UPR 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT CRISP. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) WITH HIGHS THURSDAY OF 55-60F FOR NORTHERN AREAS...AND LOCALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S AROUND SPRINGFIELD VERMONT WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC. 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. WILL LIKELY NEED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR MOST SECTIONS...EXCEPT FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 33-36F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. HAVE MAINTAINED WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL...AND THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT AND THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER 04Z. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 14-15Z FRIDAY FOR THE FOG TO DISSIPATE GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 251 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE WEEKEND WHEN A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRODUCING RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ON SUNDAY. FRIDAY MORNING THE AREA COMES OUT OF A COLD NIGHT BUT TEMPS TO RECOVER UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST...IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA IN THE MORNING. SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW RH...1000-500MB RH LESS THAN 40%...WILL MINIMIZE CLOUDS. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS BUT 850 MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL PRODUCE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND WEAK WARM FRONT SETS UP ALONG/NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850 MB TEMPS WARM ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND 70S SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY AND CHC POPS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY NEARER THE WARM FRONT...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. BY SUNDAY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...CENTERED MAINLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP AND MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY. BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION BUT TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS. THE NORTHEAST IS CUT OFF FROM BETTER MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH...SO ONLY MOISTURE SYSTEM HAS TO WORK WITH IS WHAT IT BRINGS ALONG WITH IT ACROSS THE CONTINENT. EXPECT SIMILAR RAINFALL AS WITH LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE SURFACE LOW PASSES...COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER A LOW ALOFT WITH LOW THICKNESS AND COOL 850 MB TEMPS. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE 12-18Z TIMEFRAME TODAY AS CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED AND BECOME SCATTERED FROM WEST TO EAST. THINGS SETTLING DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER. NY TAF SITES SCATTERED FOR THE AFTERNOON BEHIND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WINDSHIFT...AND BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH VERMONT THROUGH 20Z WITH SKIES BECOMING SCATTERED AND WESTERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPING. KEPT WINDS AT KBTV 240 DEG...AS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CHANNELING PERSISTS. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL CLEAR THEN LIFR FOG AND CIGS TO DEVELOP KSLK/KMPV...ESPECIALLY WITH RECENT RAINFALL. CONDITION TO IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING BY 13UTC. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...HANSON AVIATION...HANSON

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