Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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749 FXUS61 KBTV 290237 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1037 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1037 PM EDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLEARING TAKES PLACE BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 332 PM EDT THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE TIME PERIOD AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HIGHLIGHTS THE FEATURES OF NOTE THROUGH SUNDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND LIGHT NW FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHORTWAVE AT 500MB WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF A FEW CLOUDS AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO USHER IN MOISTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND IN THE 20S TO MID 30S AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT. 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE NORTHEAST FOR PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE, WARM AIR ADVECTION PRODUCING RAIN SUNDAY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY WITH THE PROSPECT OF RAIN SPREADING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...BUT MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 332 PM EDT THURSDAY...GUIDANCE STILL FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION PROVIDES THE DETAILS AND IS BELOW...WITH JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. UPPER ENERGY WITHIN A SLOWLY MOVING MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BY MONDAY THERE WILL BE MORE OF A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A COASTAL SYSTEM. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON DETAILS...BUT 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW CLOSED SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING PAST CAPE COD AREA LATE MONDAY. EXPECT LOW TO DEPART NORTH AND EAST, ENDING PRECIP OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAY EMBEDDED IN 500MB TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S AND MINS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME HIGH- LEVEL CLOUDS AT RUT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE, BUT WON`T BE MUCH MORE THAN THAT. WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY OR LOCALLY GOVERNED BY TERRAIN. OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THRU SATURDAY WITH NO SIG WX. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ENEWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL RAINFALL SUN INTO MON. MVFR W/ INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE SUN-MON. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO

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