Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 032356 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 656 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEARS WITH LOWS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 641 PM EST WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SOUTH AND EAST OF MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC. TEMPS ARE UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR EARLY FEBRUARY AND WILL REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SWLY PBL FLOW AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURE AT 2330Z HAS RISEN TO 49F AT BTV...TYING THE RECORD FOR FEBRUARY 3RD. PRECIPITATION HAS GENERALLY ENDED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT MOSAIC COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY DOES SHOW SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE OTTAWA VALLEY SSWD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND WRN NY ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. HAVE MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...MAINLY 02-06Z THIS EVENING AS THIS TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS STRONGEST P-GRADIENT AND 850MB WINDS SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S. HAVE INDICATING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS ON THURSDAY...BU MAINLY A DRY FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...MIN TEMPS DROP INTO THE TEENS AND TWENTIES. THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND BUT NOT A LOT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE...WEAK FORCING AS WELL. AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SORT OF JUST LINGERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. FAVORABLE FLOW DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OFF LAKE ONTARIO...NO REAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED...BUT SOUTHER SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY....WILL HAVE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHUTTING DOWN. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR MOST NORTHERN ZONES. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILD OVER OUR AREA. ON MONDAY OUR REGION WILL BE SET UP BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL OF THE EAST COAST OF THE US AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SPINS UP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY TRANSFERRING TO THE COASTAL LOW. THE 12Z GFS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WOULD BRING SOME SNOW AT LEAST TO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF IS KEEPING THIS SYSTEM COMPLETELY OUT TO SEA WITH NO IMPACTS FOR US. STILL LACKING MODEL TO MODEL OR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS STORM...HOPEFULLY DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR SOON. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...AREAS OF LLWS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 02-03Z BEFORE MAIN LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF LLWS IN TAFS AT SLK/MPV/RUT. OTHERWISE...SATURATED LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS MAINTAINING STRATUS WITH CEILINGS IFR/MVFR AND HIR TRRN OBSCD THROUGH 06-07Z. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD VFR CEILINGS AND BKN SKIES MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE KSLK...WHERE OVC 2-3KFT WILL PERSIST WITH UPSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW. WINDS GENERALLY S-SW 10-15KTS...BECOMING W-NW WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF -SHRA POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED DURATION/COVERAGE HAVE EXCLUDED MENTION IN THE TAFS. OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 00Z FRI-12Z FRI...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. 12Z FRI-00Z SUN...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z SUN-18Z SUN...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. 18Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.
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&& .CLIMATE... SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED ON 2/3. HERE`S A LISTING OF THE CURRENT RECORDS AND THE YEAR OBSERVED. BURLINGTON, VT49|1991 MONTPELIER, VT55|1991 ST. JOHNSBURY, VT59|1991 MASSENA, NY48|1984 MT MANSFIELD, VT43|1973 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...BANACOS/WGH CLIMATE...LAHIFF

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