Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 020834 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 434 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED FOR NRN NY AND N-CNTRL VT WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE VIRGINIAS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SHORT- WAVE TROUGH THAT PRODUCED ALL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY HAS MOVED DOWN STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOME...AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY ZONAL. THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE SOUTH...AND DECENT MIXING FROM ALOFT WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. H850 TEMPS OF +12C TO +14C WITH MIXING TO ABOUT H850 WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS WHICH ARE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850 LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FOR TUESDAY. TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT. TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE MID WEEK.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE EMERGENCY SERVICE BACKUP. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST, ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z AT KMSS/KSLK/KMSS TERMINALS, BUT ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY GENERALLY 5-10 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD, TRENDING OCCASIONALLY GUSTY 15-22Z. OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE. 12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS. && .EQUIPMENT... AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO. PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WASULA NEAR TERM...WASULA SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...KGM/MV/WASULA AVIATION...JMG EQUIPMENT...JMG

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