Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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370 FXUS61 KBTV 191352 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 952 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. LATER THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 653 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREATS. RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING INDICATE THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS OUT OF THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END BY MID-MORNING AND HAVE TWEAKED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING. SOME CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE COME STRONG FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 300 PM AND 700 PM AND AGAIN...WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE...SMALL HAIL...AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY OF THE STORMS. HAVE TWEAKED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WEATHER GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO INDICATE A SHARPER GRADIENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 421 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS COME TO AN END BY 800 PM WITH JUST SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO RETURN ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 402 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL IDEA FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING WITH GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY NIGHT. WITH GENERAL RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST, MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH SEASONABLY COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE BEST SHOT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH OF THE BORDER CARVING OUT THE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THOUGH SO BETTING WE SEE JUST A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT, SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO OFFSHORE BY MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE ONLY REAL WEATHER CONCERN BEING OVERNIGHT LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RUN IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE TO LOCALLY 20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST. AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THOUGH, SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING MVFR TRENDS BACK TO VFR THIS MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 16Z ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND AFTER 18Z AT VERMONT SITES. ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF, ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 19-22Z WHERE BRIEF IFR VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AT STORMS HITTING A TERMINAL. OUTSIDE OF THE EASTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT KBTV, WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 5-15KTS THROUGH MID-DAY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 18-25 KTS AT KMSS/KSLK/KBTV. AFTER 00Z, SKIES TREND BACK TO VFR AT FEW- SCT250 AND WINDS ABATE TO 5-10 KTS. OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 12Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. 00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. 00Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .MARINE...
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AS OF 943 AM EDT TUESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. RECENT COLCHESTER REEF AND DIAMOND ISLAND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AND WILL REMAIN SO INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED, HIGHEST IN SOUTH-FACING EXPOSURES. IN ADDITION BOATERS AND OTHER RECREATIONAL INTERESTS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BECOME STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL, AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF A MORE IMMEDIATE THUNDERSTORM THREAT EXISTS.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF MARINE...LOCONTO

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