Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 261039 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 639 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...WITH AN INFLUX OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S TODAY...BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 426 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. 850 MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...SO EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE CLIMO FAVORED SPOTS...BUT OTHERWISE LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ONCE AGAIN...WITH JUST SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS WESTERN SECTIONS LATER IN THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 426 AM EDT TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING. BAND OF MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES MOVING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND FRONT APPROACHING...ALONG WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PRODUCING SOME HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION...WE CAN EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS TO MOVE INTO SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS 00Z THROUGH 06Z. SUPPORT FOR THUNDER GREATEST DURING THE EVENING OVER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE SOME INSTABILITY INDICATED. BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND FALL APART AS IT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT DUE LACK OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY AND ALSO A DECREASE IN MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY LATE MORNING AND THE REST OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH DECREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER BEING OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE ENOUGH HEATING BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY. 850 MB TEMPS COOL FROM 13-16C IN THE MORNING TO 10-14C DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SOUTHERN VERMONT. COOLING TREND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND AND JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH BEST CHANCE BEING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN VERMONT. TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A RATHER COOL...EARLY FALL-LIKE DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 332 AM EDT TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY END OF THE WEEK WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARMER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS TO RADIATE QUITE WELL WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT FROM 45-52F FOR MOST...EXCEPT FOR NEAR 40F IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THE RIDGE WILL CREST OVERHEAD FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE SLIDING EAST LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A WEAK RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL LEAD TO FRIDAY BEING THE NICEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT THE REGION WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PUT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN DEVELOPING BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE PROGRESSING AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURNING TO MODERATE LEVELS (DEW POINTS IN THE 60S)...WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK TO BE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT - MONDAY TIME-FRAME AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES TOWARDS THE REGION AND SLOWS OR STALLS. AT THE SAME TIME...A DIGGING TROUGH INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA/NORTHWESTERN US AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EJECT ADDITIONAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING FOG/BR EARLY THIS MORNING AT SLK/MPV. ALL FOG/BR LIFTS BY 13Z THIS MORNING WITH VFR AT ALL TAF SITES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN VFR. A SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS BUT COVERAGE AND IMPACT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIMITED...SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. HAVE ALSO KEPT ANY FOG/BR OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING TURN MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS AT MSS. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 12Z WED-00Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. 00Z SAT-00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MVFR/IFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...MUCCILLI AVIATION...MUCCILLI

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