Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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428 FXUS61 KBTV 262345 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 745 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled and warmer weather moves into the North Country for tonight and Monday as developing low pressure over the central U.S. pushes a warm front northward through the region. Periods of freezing rain tonight into Monday will transition to all rain by Monday afternoon, briefly tapering off Monday night before returning for Tuesday and ending as snow Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 716 PM EDT Sunday...Several adjustments to pop/temps and precip type grids based on current obs and latest radar trends. Large scale pattern shows elongated cyclonic circulation over the Great Lakes with several ribbons of enhanced moisture moving across our CWA this evening. This moisture has produced very light rain with some mix of sleet across our region...but most precip is having difficulties reaching the ground...given very dry low levels. Thinking after next band across the central CPV and southern VT lifts north of cwa by 02z with most of the region remaining dry this evening. Better lift and deeper moisture arrives from southwest to northeast across our cwa after 06z tonight...and have tried to refresh pops to show this scenario. In addition...I have reduced the areal coverage of freezing rain this evening as almost all obs are above 32F...and highway pavement temps are running between 35 and 42F. Expecting surface temps to fall below 32 in protected valleys and mid slopes east of the spine and parts of essex county ny between 02z and 07z. When additional moisture arrives...areas of freezing rain looks reasonable. Still watching the SLV closely as MSS is 33 with northeast winds...and potential for some pockets of freezing rain. Temps are currently running 2 to 4 degrees warmer than expected...so have integrated this change into the hourly obs. Previous discussion below: Better slug of moisture with deeper saturation will move into the area after 6z. Warm air aloft continues to push into the area and temperatures have risen into the mid to upper 30s across our area. Temperatures will not drop too far overnight with clouds and precipitation moving into the area, as well as warm air advection with warm front lifting across the area. Still concerns across the Eastern Dacks and Eastern Vermont for freezing rain and headlines for freezing rain advisory remains in place. For tonight into Monday, concerns remain from the previous forecast thinking in regards to freezing rain potential as deep low pressure pushes a warm front across the area. Thermal profiles are as such that freezing rain will be the dominant ptype across Essex County of New York and from the western slopes of the Green Mountains eastward where surface temps will hover a freezing or just below as warmer air aloft moves over the area. In the deeper Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys surface temps remain in the low/mid 30s overnight so while pockets of freezing rain are certainly possible, the overall impacts will be minimal. On the impact side of things, under the advisory area, there is some concern that impacts will be on the low side through much of the event as modeled road temperatures show surfaces warming well above freezing during the day, and only right to freezing during the overnight. The expected ice accumulations won`t have an impact on powerlines as only up to a tenth of an inch is expected at the lower elevations, and even though higher up on the mid-slopes increased amounts could accumulate onto the larger transmission lines, they can usually handle a little more without failing. Freezing rain will be falling during the Monday morning commute though so any ice on area roadways will be a concern. By mid-day Monday the warm front pushes closer to the Canadian border allowing surface temps to warm into the mid-30s east to upper 40s west transitioning ptype to plain rain and ending the threat of ice accumulation. Rain will be ending by about 00z across our entire forecast area. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 301 PM EDT Sunday....Monday night will be a brief break in precipitation with mainly dry conditions expected. Next shortwave trough moves into the region Tuesday afternoon and once again widespread precipitation should develop over northern New York and Vermont. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s...thus expecting precipitation to fall in the form of rain. Another ridge of high pressure will build southward from Canada Tuesday night and precipitation ends as colder air moves back into the North Country. Tuesday night temperatures drop back into the 20s and lower 30s. Any lingering precipitation will change to snow showers before ending. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 351 PM EDT Sunday...The north country will be under cold advection on Wednesday with a slight chance for some rain or snow showers, with the best chance for any precipitation on wednesday will be mainly over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. A ridge of high pressure will build south from Canada on Thursday and remain through early Friday, with fair and dry weather expected. GFS model has now trended toward the ECMWF model solution for Friday and Saturday. Will keep most of Friday dry across the region, except for slight chance pops for New York state and southern Vermont. ECMWF take a low up through the eastern Great Lakes on Friday, while the GFS model has this low further south. Both models develop a secondary low pressure area off the New Jersey coast late Friday night and early Saturday. The ECMWF has this low a bit further north. Have stuck with superblend pops for Friday night and Saturday and will have a chance of rain or snow in the forecast. Forecaster confidence is lower for Sunday forecast as 12Z runs of GFS and ECMWF hinting at a dry forecast. Have stuck with superblend pops for Sunday with a chance of rain or snow showers. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Through 00Z Tuesday...Warm front approaches the region as the mix of borderline VFR/MVFR ceilings will continue to deteriorate as the night wears on. Bands of rain are starting to move through and will become more widespread after 03Z. Conditions will continue to drop as freezing rain across KMSS/KSLK/KMPV during the overnight hours before returning to rain by mid morning. Ceilings will continue to degrade to MVFR/IFR by 20Z with KMSS seeing closer to IFR/LIFR. Winds will start out of the south-southeast at 05-10 knots before increasing to 10-20 knots after 03Z before returning to 05- 10 knots after 20Z. KMSS will be the exception with winds out of the northeast at 05-10 knots. KSLK could also see a couple hours of wind shear at 09Z at 2000 feet from the southwest at 35 knots. Outlook 00Z Tuesday through Friday... 00Z Tuesday through 00Z Thursday...MVFR/IFR in scattered rain showers Monday night, becoming prevailing rain Tuesday, and rain/snow Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moderately gusty NW winds likely Wednesday. 00Z Thursday through 00Z Saturday...Mainly VFR, except for some scattered snow showers over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains, mainly 00Z Thursday until 00Z Friday.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Freezing Rain Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for VTZ003-004- 006>008-010-012-016>019. NY...Freezing Rain Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for NYZ034. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles/Taber SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH/MV

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