Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271909 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 309 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TO START THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1259 PM EDT MONDAY... CURRENT RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HASN`T BEGUN TO FIRE JUST YET OVER OUR AREA SO I TAPERED BACK THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS JUST COMING IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE HIRES MODELS. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT THE HIRES WINDOWS HAVE LEAD TO A VARIETY OF RESULTS FROM WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EVERYWHERE TO ALMOST NOTHING. GIVEN YESTERDAY`S EVENTS, AND PLENTY OF LAPS ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY, I TOOK THE APPROACH OF EXPECTING A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE BURLINGTON AREA SOME TIME MID AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WEAK VORT MOVES SOUTH FROM QUEBEC LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY EVENING. NOTHING BUT COSMETIC CHANGES ELSEWHERE TO MATCH OBS FOR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. I DID TRY TO ADD IN A BIT MORE DETAIL OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS THE COOLER WATER TEMPS ARE PREVENTING THE NEAR SHORE TEMPS FROM INCREASING AS MUCH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1023AM EDT MONDAY...SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS STILL HANGING TOUGH OVER VERMONT BUT SLOWLY DISSIPATING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE AT 1030 THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE PROLIFIC OVER MOST OF VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS THIS MORNING. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY AS WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST, REVEALING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR PART OF THE DAY. LIGHT WIND FLOW, PERSISTING OUT OF THE NW ALOFT WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE HEATING WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE MID TEENS AND RESULT IN MAX SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 424 AM EDT MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL STAY ENTRENCHED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. COME TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH A STRONG JET AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL AID IN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARMER WILL PROVIDE SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000J/KG GENERALLY OVER NE PORTIONS OF VERMONT. NAM AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9000-11000 FT OVER PORTIONS OF VERMONT. HAVE INCLUDED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREENS AND AREAS EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET LINGERS INTO TUESDAY EVENING, STRENGTHENING AND THEN SHIFTING EAST OF VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH WILL PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING, HELPING TO SQUELCH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE AS SURFACE HEATING WILL STILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S AND SOME LINGERING WIND SHEAR MAY EXIST FROM DEPARTING JET. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY, BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT, MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KTS OR LESS, HEAVILY GOVERNED BY TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES AT SELECTED TERMINALS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, BUT MOST TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 00Z VFR TO CONTINUE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON POTENTIAL OF SHOWER/ISOLD STORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA LATER TONIGHT, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME, SO NO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING. 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES. 00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG

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