Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 230019 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 719 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 615 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO DEW POINTS AS THEY ARE STILL RUNNING LOW AND SINCE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS LIGHT...HAVE ADDED THE LIGHT WORDING TO THE PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS REAL GOOD. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NY AT 2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F). OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS. CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS. THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER. VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY. THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH KLSK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. 12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK. 00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
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&& .MARINE... A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004- 007-010-012. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES MARINE...MUCCILLI

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