Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KBTV 190528
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
128 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017
A ridge of high pressure remains over the North Country through
Sunday. Temperatures slowly climb back toward normal over the
weekend into early next week before a mid week trough brings
another round of well below normal temps for the second half of
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
As of 1021 PM EDT Saturday...Few more tweaks to previous
forecast for this late evening update. Main change was to
increase temps just a bit more in southern areas based on
increased cloud cover. Otherwise, remainder of forecast is in
good shape. Have a good night.
Previous Discussion...Dry weather with temperatures
slightly cooler than seasonal normals will continue tonight
through Sunday night. Clipper system is staying south of our
area, not really even seeing clouds from this system yet. Some
cloud will make it into our Southern zones overnight. Have used
colder guidance overnight because most models don`t have a
handle on how clear we are today and should be for most of the
overnight hours. Upper level and surface ridges will remain over
the region through Sunday night.
.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM EDT Saturday...Flow aloft becomes more westerly
with time ahead of developing upper trough. This will help
increase clouds across the area and there may be a few late day
showers over northern New York. Highs will be right around
seasonal normals with readings in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
There may be some showers Monday night...but precipitation
amounts will be less than a tenth of an inch. Lows will be in
the mid 20s to lower 30s.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 335 PM EDT Saturday...Tuesday afternoon looks to be the
most interesting time period of the extended with a sharp
boundary moving into the area. Steep lapse rates will develop
over the area and enhance the potential for convective snow
squalls. Highs will be in the 30s to around 40 with colder air
aloft associated with the boundary moving over the top to create
the steep lapse rates. Something to definitely keep an eye on.
As the boundary moves through Tuesday night we will see below
normal temperatures over the area through Thursday before flow
aloft turns to the southwest for Friday and Saturday. Dry
weather Wednesday and Thursday in the northwest flow...but
increasing chances toward the weekend in the southwest flow
aloft. Temperatures will be well above freezing for the
precipitation to be in the form of rain.
.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
-- Changed Discussion --Through 06Z Monday...VFR through the period as a ridge of high
pressure remains over Vermont and northern New York. Winds will
remain light throughout the period at 10 knots or less.
06Z Monday through Thursday...
06Z Monday - 00Z Tuesday...VFR/high pressure overall.
00Z Tuesday - 00Z Wednesday...Possible MVFR ceilings as short
wave trough passes through the region.
00Z Wednesday - Onwards...VFR/high pressure overall.
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