Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 231050 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 650 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST BY SUNDAY AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE CONSIDERABLY. A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 650 AM EDT SATURDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO DROP ALL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN NEARLY ALL SPOTS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO SKY COVER AND DEWPOINTS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT MORNING. PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...COOL AND QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS UNSEASONABLY DEEP CLOSED LOW PULLS STEADILY AWAY INTO THE MARITIMES WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SLIDES BODILY SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. BLENDED MODEL 925-850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER MODESTLY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SUNNY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE WITH WINDS TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY OVER TIME TONIGHT. WITH STEADY HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MILDER AND WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF SEASONABLE LATE MAY VALUES IN MOST SPOTS (40S). THERE COULD BE SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME, ESPECIALLY LATER AT NIGHT AS DEEPENING WARM THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES BEGIN ALOFT. BY SUNDAY DEEPENING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE CONSIDERABLY WITH MOST SPOTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON AND WASH OUT BY EARLY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER OR TWO IN THE 3-8 PM TIME FRAME ACROSS NC/NE VT. NOMINAL BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AND LOWER-END SREF CALIBRATED THUNDER PERECENTAGES AROUND 20 PERCENT SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THIS AREA AS WELL, BUT WITH SUCH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITRE LOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THEN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING BY LATER AT NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER FAR SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S IN MOST SPOTS. AS WE PROGRESS INTO MONDAY SFC WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY WHERE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN ARE EVIDENT. NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS WITH SOME OF OUR EASTERN VERMONT COUNTIES LIKELY REMAINING DRY ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY WITH SHARP WARMING ALOFT AT ODDS WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS. FOR NOW HAVE ADVERTISED AN IDEA CLOSER TO LATEST SREF BIAS-CORRECTED MEANS SHOWING COOLEST READINGS NORTH AND EAST (L-M 70S) AND WARMER SOUTH AND WEST (UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S) WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY AS NORTHERN STREAM ATTEMPTS TO BRING A FRONT INTO/ACROSS AREA MID/LATE WEEK BUT IT APPEARS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION IS BORROWED FROM DAYSHIFT AS THINKING IS GENERALLY THE SAME...NO WIDESCALE WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED YET CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEEK WILL BRING ABOUT ADEQUATE CHANCES OF EATING INTO OUR PRECIPITATION DEFICITS. WARM FRONT MON NGT WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS WARM FRONT FEATURE WITH GREATEST ACROSS NRN NY. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS RANGE BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC CONDITIONS BUT CLOUD COVER WITH CLOSE PROXIMITY OF FRONT MAY INHIBIT TEMPERATURES. THE LACK OF ORGANIZED FORCING WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS DURING MID WEEK WITH A BETTER THREAT LATE WEEK AS FRONT MAKES ATTEMPT TO PUSH ACROSS REGION BUT MAY GET HUNG UP AND MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT NEXT WEEKEND. THESE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERAURES MAY PLACE BTV AS THE WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN 5000-8000 FOOT CLOUD DECK CONTNIUES TO DISSIPATE BUT STILL HANGING IN A BIT WITH NW UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS VT. EARLY THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY DISSIPATES OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TAF SITES AND CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER TODAY AND INCREASING TO BKN SAT NGT/SUN MRNG. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WEST/NORTHWEST THIS MORNING TO 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS...HIGHEST MPV. WINDS TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS...HIGHEST AT MSS SLOWLY DIMINSHING TONIGHT. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY (15 TO 25%) ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WILL EXACERBATE THESE CONDITIONS TODAY. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START TODAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW FIRE WEATHER...JMG

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