Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 190528 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 128 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure remains over the North Country through Sunday. Temperatures slowly climb back toward normal over the weekend into early next week before a mid week trough brings another round of well below normal temps for the second half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/... As of 1021 PM EDT Saturday...Few more tweaks to previous forecast for this late evening update. Main change was to increase temps just a bit more in southern areas based on increased cloud cover. Otherwise, remainder of forecast is in good shape. Have a good night. Previous Discussion...Dry weather with temperatures slightly cooler than seasonal normals will continue tonight through Sunday night. Clipper system is staying south of our area, not really even seeing clouds from this system yet. Some cloud will make it into our Southern zones overnight. Have used colder guidance overnight because most models don`t have a handle on how clear we are today and should be for most of the overnight hours. Upper level and surface ridges will remain over the region through Sunday night. && .SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 PM EDT Saturday...Flow aloft becomes more westerly with time ahead of developing upper trough. This will help increase clouds across the area and there may be a few late day showers over northern New York. Highs will be right around seasonal normals with readings in the upper 30s to lower 40s. There may be some showers Monday night...but precipitation amounts will be less than a tenth of an inch. Lows will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 335 PM EDT Saturday...Tuesday afternoon looks to be the most interesting time period of the extended with a sharp boundary moving into the area. Steep lapse rates will develop over the area and enhance the potential for convective snow squalls. Highs will be in the 30s to around 40 with colder air aloft associated with the boundary moving over the top to create the steep lapse rates. Something to definitely keep an eye on. As the boundary moves through Tuesday night we will see below normal temperatures over the area through Thursday before flow aloft turns to the southwest for Friday and Saturday. Dry weather Wednesday and Thursday in the northwest flow...but increasing chances toward the weekend in the southwest flow aloft. Temperatures will be well above freezing for the precipitation to be in the form of rain. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
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Through 06Z Monday...VFR through the period as a ridge of high pressure remains over Vermont and northern New York. Winds will remain light throughout the period at 10 knots or less. 06Z Monday through Thursday... 06Z Monday - 00Z Tuesday...VFR/high pressure overall. 00Z Tuesday - 00Z Wednesday...Possible MVFR ceilings as short wave trough passes through the region. 00Z Wednesday - Onwards...VFR/high pressure overall.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Neiles SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...WGH/MV

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