Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 220310 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1010 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system passing north of the area tonight will bring light precipitation to the area...generally in the form of light rain but also area of light freezing rain. The best potential for any light freezing rain will be in Vermont east of the Green Mountains with mainly only trace amounts. A noticeable warming trend takes place starting Wednesday and continues right through Saturday with above normal temperatures expected. There may be some rain showers on Thursday...but the best chance for a more widespread rain will come on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 1010 PM EST Tuesday...As expected, weakening trough limping across the area this evening with little fanfare other than a few sprinkles here and there. In fact, I`ve stuggled to find any mesonet or ASOS site that has actually received measureable precipitation in our area given very dry boundary layer air and dewpoint depressions running in the 10 to 20 degree range in most spots outside the northern SLV. Given these trends have only kept lower chance pops through about midnight, mainly for eastern counties with any icing threat minimal at best. Low temperatures still appear on track as clouds and near- neutral advective processes allow readings to fall only slowly, bottoming out generally in the lower to mid 30s by sunrise Wednesday. Have a great night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM EST Tuesday...Warming trend begins on Wednesday and continues into Thursday. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 40s and in the upper 40s to mid 50s on Thursday. Not really looking for any precipitation on Wednesday...but shortwave trough moving across eastern Canada on Thursday will bring a chance of showers to the area...but precipitation amounts will generally be less than a quarter inch. Of note will be the fact that overnight lows will stay above freezing over much of the area Wednesday night and Thursday night. This will contribute to a favorable situation for ice breakup in the rivers that still have ice and by Thursday we should see an increase in the potential for ice jams...especially over the northern third of Vermont and far northeast New York. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 320 PM EST Tuesday...Above normal temperatures will continue on Friday with highs in the 40s to around 50 and well into the 50s on Saturday as low and mid level clouds becomes more south and southwest. This is in response to a more noticeable upper trough moving into the region on Saturday. Still looking at widespread rain developing on Saturday and Saturday night. At this time looking at anywhere from a half inch to one inch of rain. This combined with the above normal temperatures should continue to increase the potential for ice jams and flooding. Situation will be closely monitored as precipitable water values are anomalously high for this time of year which could contribute to even more precipitation. Upper trough moves east of the region on Sunday and quieter weather returns to the region with highs generally in the 30s. && .AVIATION /03Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Through 00z Wednesday...VFR conditions persist through this evening as dry low levels make it more difficult for precipitation reach the ground this evening and overnight. Therefore have VCSH at all TAF sites. Expect moisture and possible light showers to move from NW to SE affecting terminals in the North Country from 00Z Wednesday through 06Z. MVFR conditions possible at KMSS/KSLK after 06Z through mid morning. KPBG/KBTV MVFR possible during the early to mid morning hours. Outlook 00z Wednesday through Sunday... Wednesday - Thursday...vfr/mvfr with pockets of mvfr/ifr in our mountains sites. Friday - Saturday...A warm front lifting from southwest to northeast on Friday will produce additional showers along with some enhanced southerly winds. The turning wind profiles and rapid increase in speed with height will cause some areas of turbulence and shear on Friday Night into Saturday. Widespread gusty southerly winds likely on Saturday with areas of rain showers...producing localized mvfr/ifr cigs/vis in the heavier elements. Sunday...VFR/MVFR conditions possible, especially in mountains snow showers. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 320 PM EST Tuesday...Growing concern for hydrologic concerns. First item of note is the above normal temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday with many locations staying above freezing at night. This should lead to an increased potential for ice breakup in rivers by Thursday. And this will then contribute to potential ice jams. Ice is more noticeable in northern rivers so rivers north of Route 2 in Vermont will have a better chance for ice jams. The same can be said in northeast New York for rivers like the Ausable and Great Chazy. Further warming takes place on Friday and especially on Saturday...which will contribute to more snowmelt and rises on area waterways. Upper trough moves into the region on Saturday with above normal precipitable water values ahead of it and this may contribute to heavier precipitation across the area. Right now looking at amounts in the one half to one inch range...but higher amounts are definitely possible and will continue to monitor. In summary... growing ice jam threat begins Thursday and continues into Saturday. Rises in river levels will take place more noticeably on Friday and Saturday. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Deal/KGM HYDROLOGY...Evenson

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