Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 151942 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 342 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WIDESPREAD COLD RAIN AND WET SNOW WILL SLOWLY END OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT A DRY THOUGH CHILLY DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 30S UNDER BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. AFTER A COLD NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES MODERATE CONSIDERABLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...WELL QUITE THE WEATHER DAY AS WIDESPREAD FLOODING REMAINS ONGOING WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CT RIVER BY 6 PM IF NOT SOONER...WITH ANAFRONTAL COLD RAIN/SNOW LINGERING BY SOME 6-9 HOURS BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY. LATEST GUIDANCE HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION QUITE WELL SHOWING COLDER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AND RAIN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO WET SNOW BEFORE TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RISES ON ALREADY HIGH STREAMS/RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS/STATEMENTS TO RIVERS IN YOUR LOCAL AREA (SEE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW). OTHERWISE...AS P-TYPE TRANSITIONS TO A WET SNOW...SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. NOTHING TOO EARTH SHATTERING...BUT QUITE THE CHANGE AFTER YESTERDAY`S NEAR RECORD HIGHS. AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE VALLEY FLOORS AND 1-3 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A FEW POINT TOTALS NEAR 4/5 INCHES AT SUMMIT LEVEL. LOWS BY MORNING UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS NRN NY...AND LOWER TO MID 20S VT BY MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH QUIETER WEATHER THEN TAKES HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE REGION. THUS MAINLY LOOKING AT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. QUITE CHILLY HOWEVER TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY) AS BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE INTO THE 30S...SO KEEP THOSE JACKETS HANDY. THEN CLEAR/CALM BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED. LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER NRN MTN HOLLOWS. BY THURSDAY START OF RAPID MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE BEGINS AS HIGH SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. LATE DAY HIGHS UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...THEN 20S TO LOWER 30S BY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH FLOW.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 223 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS PLEASANT ON FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOOKING AT A GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR MOST. UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SWING OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE TRANSFERRING OFFSHORE...SO NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR RAIN EVENT BY ANY MEANS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S FOR SATURDAY. UPPER LOW WILL EXIT SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A DEFAULT RIDGE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WHAT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOTHING REAL NOTEWORTHY AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SUNDAY-MONDAY GENERALLY 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CURRENTLY. THIS WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH VT THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALONG THE FRONT EXPECT RAPID WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST AND WIND GUSTS 25-30KTS. MOD TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE AS WELL BUT BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE FRONT LEAVES THE AREA. COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT KMSS NOW AND AND REACHING KMPV BY 00Z. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT THEN IFR TO MVFR THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS WITH ONLY SOME VCSH NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SCT CONDITIONS 16-18Z. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY...
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AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF MID- AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND RESIDUAL HIGH TERRAIN SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE RUNOFF. CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT IS RAPIDLY LESSENING OVER TIME HOWEVER DUE TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE MELTABLE PACK NOW LIES ABOVE 2000-2500 FEET. REGARDLESS OF THE LESSENING CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT...CURRENT RAINFALL WILL KEEP...OR PUSH MANY RIVERS AND SMALLER STREAMS INTO MINOR AND IN SOME CASES MODERATE FLOOD BY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON FOR RIVERS IN YOUR AREA BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR BY GOING TO: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035- 087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...MUCCILLI AVIATION...NF HYDROLOGY...JMG

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