Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 282132 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 532 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. DRIER CONDITIONS BRIEFLY RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE WORK WEEK WILL START WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND TREND TO SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 325 PM EDT SUNDAY...LINGERING GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35KTS ON WESTERN SLOPES AND 30-40KTS AROUND THE SUMMITS WILL CONTINUE A GRADUAL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN THE DRY SLOT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WITH HOW WET CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN, SOME AREAS MAY SEE PATCHY FOG. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S TO MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 325 PM EDT SUNDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING. THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE SURFACE RIDGING AS THE 500MB LOW EXITS EAST AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FILTERS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRYING TREND MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME SUN BREAKING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY LIMIT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT, BUT DIMINISHING WINDS WILL AID FOG DEVELOPMENT IN AT LEAST THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE AREAS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. TUESDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 500 J/KG AFFECTING SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BRING A WARM FRONT, RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TEENS, RESULTING IN MORE SEASONABLE MAX TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH UPPER LEVEL JET ENHANCING LIFT AND PROLONGING THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 325 PM EDT SUNDAY...LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS WELL-SPECIFIED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY CONTINUES IN MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. IT`S A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/VORT MAXES PROGGED TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER, THERE IS LESS CLARITY NOTED IN 12Z NWP SUITE THAN PRIOR CYCLES REGARDING TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES. I`VE OPTED TO USE A HEAVY DOSE OF BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. DAILY DETAILS FOLLOW... WEDNESDAY: LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE IN THE PERIOD AS A DIGGING SHORTWAVE INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION CARVES OUT MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY. THAT ALLOWS FOR A PLUME OF RELATIVELY HIGH PWAT AIR (UP TO 1.5 INCHES) TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD PARALLEL TO SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PER 12Z GFS, WARM SECTOR AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY LI`S OF -4 AND CAPE VALUES AOB 1000 J/KG, WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES 35-40 KTS. SO THERE COULD BE A WINDOW FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/HYDRO CONCERNS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. KEPT POPS HIGH LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL FOR VT AND CLOSER TO LIKELY FOR NORTHER NY. SHOWN FORECAST QPF WEDNESDAY UP TO A HALF INCH, BUT LOCALLY MORE IN CONVECTION. DEPENDING ON SPEED THAT FRONT EXITS - WHICH MAY TURN OUT TO BE SLOWER - SHOULD HAVE POST-FRONTAL CAA REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE M50S/NEAR 60. THURSDAY: GFS/EC REALLY ARE AT ODDS WITH REGARD TO HOW THURSDAY PLAYS OUT. THE GFS DEPICTS AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE WITH LARGER QPF ON THURSDAY, WHILE THE EC SHOWS MORE SHEARED-OUT SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND LOWER QPF. KEPT IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE PERIOD, BUT WILL TURN UNSETTLED HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND OF INDEPENDENCE DAY AS THE NEXT IN THE PARADE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MVFR/IFR PREDOMINATES (BRIEF INTERVALS VFR) THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. STEADIER IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR ANTICIPATED INTO MONDAY. EARLIER STEADY, AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN HAS SINCE LIFTED INTO QUEBEC, WITH LIGHTER-INTENSITY RAIN OR DRIZZLE REMAINS. EXPECT PRIMARY AREA OF MOST PERSISTENT RAIN BEING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AIRSPACE UNDER UPPER LOW. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN LOW MVFR AND ARE PROJECTED TO STAY THAT WAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON IFR UPSTREAM METARS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS, THE BEST CHANCE AT IFR CEILINGS WOULD BE UNDERNEATH UPPER LOW AS IT TREKS NORTHEASTWARD THRU 12Z. VWP DATA SUGGESTS A STEADY DECREASE IN OBSERVED LOW- LEVEL WINDFIELD WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THUS, ANTICIPATE ANY AREAS OF LLWS TO END AND GUSTY EAST WINDS AT RUT TO GRADUALLY ABATE THRU 00Z. WINDS AFTER 00Z, BECOME LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST (VARIABLE AT TIMES) AS LOW MOVES THROUGH. GENERAL THEME FOR MONDAY IS FOR IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATING IN THE MORNING. STILL EXPECT BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AREAS LIFR DUE TO NOCTURNAL RADIATION FOG MONDAY NIGHT, WITH BEST CHANCE MPV/SLK. 18Z TUESDAY-18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. 18Z WEDNESDAY-06Z THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. 06Z - 12Z THURSDAY...TRENDING TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. POTENTIAL LIFR FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED...MAINLY SLK/MSS/MPV. 12Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS MVFR IN SHOWERS AS UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. 00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...VFR THOUGH POSSIBLE LIFR RADIATION FOG IF SKIES CAN CLEAR AT MPV/SLK. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 325 PM EDT SUNDAY...OBSERVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM 0.5-1.5 INCHES SO FAR. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL SURGE OF STEADY RAINFALL THIS EVENING. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 0.3-0.5 INCH OF RAINFALL, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, WHICH WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES ACROSS ALREADY INCREASING RIVERS AND STREAMS. SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL LIKELY APPROACH BANKFULL OR MINOR FLOOD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE RIVER FLOWS AND WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY SPOTS. PARTICULAR RIVERS OF INTEREST WILL BE THE EAST BRANCH OF THE AUSABLE RIVER, SARANAC RIVER, AND OTTER CREEK AND BARTON RIVER. ALSO THE RAQUETTE RIVER AT PIERCEFIELD AND SOUTH COLTON WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT`S ALREADY RUNNING NEAR AND ABOVE ACTION STAGE AND IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO PUSH IT OVER FLOOD STAGE. && .CLIMATE...
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AS OF 500 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ONE MONTHLY RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN SET AT MONTPELIER AND WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN ON TUESDAY, THE RECORDS AT BURLINGTON AND MOUNT MANSFIELD ARE IN JEOPARDY. AS OF 5 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5 PM, 8.85 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013. A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR BURLINGTON AND MT. MANSFIELD, AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS AS OF 5 PM 06/28. AT 8.44 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.48 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET IN 1922. AT 14.87 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 0.41 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR VTZ002>012-016>019. NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...LOCONTO AVIATION...LOCONTO HYDROLOGY...KGM CLIMATE...LOCONTO/MUCCILLI

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