Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 300524 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1224 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 1224 AM EST FRIDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING OR COLDER. FEW WARMER SPOTS IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY SEE RAIN MIX WITH THE SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, FORECAST STILL ON TRACK WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING BAROCLINIC LEAF (BCL) DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER LOW. WITH THAT IN MIND, EXPECT BEST LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION OF THIS SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. OBSERVATIONS SHOWING REDUCED VISIBILITIES AROUND 1SM. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE BREAKS IN SNOW AS SOUTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD MOVES NORTHEASTWARD, BUT WITH BCL DEVELOPMENT AND COOLING CLOUD HEIGHTS, EXPECT MOISTURE/SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FILLING IN THIS SHRINKING DRY SLOT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE CLIPPER TRAVERSES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN REDEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SURFACE LOW SLOWING ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO GULF OF MAINE. THE RESULT WILL BE A TRANSITION OF SYNOPTIC SNOW TO UPSLOPE SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS VERMONT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF EARLIER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AND WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTH. THIS COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH FROUDE NUMBERS SHOWING BLOCKED FLOW. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...EXPECT 3-7 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF OUR ZONES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALL OF NORTHERN VERMONT. DUE TO SHADOWING...ESSEX COUNTY NY AND THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL VT WILL RECEIVE JUST A BIT LESS...WITH 2-5 INCHES EXPECTED. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR WITH NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE FILTERING IN FRIDAY ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COASTAL LOW DEEPENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR WEST. THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 925MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN -10C AND -20C FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE IN TERMS OF SATURDAY MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM A BIT ABOVE ZERO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT TO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. COMBINATION OF TEMPS AND WIND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES...WITH POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST ADVISORIES FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE ONLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOWER TEENS...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL ABATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...BUT ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST THE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 254 PM EST THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS TODAYS 12Z MODEL SUITE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE NORTH COUNTRY. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AS AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. TRICKY MAX TEMPS FORECAST AT THIS TIME BASED ON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING, BUT BASED ON FALLING 925-850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY THINK HIGHS WILL BE EARLY IN THE MORNING AND SLOWLY FALL OFF THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE, STILL MONITORING THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY. LATEST TRENDS OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE THE IDEA THAT THIS SOUTH STREAM ENERGY DOESN`T PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHICH NEVER BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW INITIALLY, CAUSING IT TO PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. SO BASICALLY A NON-EVENT FOR US, SIGH. BEYOND MONDAY PATTERN TURNS COLD AND DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG 1030MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY AND FALL BELOW ZERO AREA-WIDE BOTH NIGHTS. THIS WILL BE A BRIEF BLAST OF CLOD THOUGH AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WARMING TEMPS BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW COMES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES...BUT A PREDOMINANT TREND TO MVFR/IFR. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY GENERALLY 06Z TO 12Z. THUS WILL SEE A DOWN TREND IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MAINLY MVFR/IFR. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TOWARDS MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY BTV/MPV/RUT/SLK. OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 00Z SATURDAY-12Z SATURDAY...SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS SNOW SHOWERS END. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. 12Z SATURDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR. 12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012- 016>019. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...MUCCILLI/NASH

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