Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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718 FXUS61 KBTV 190529 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 129 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET AND COOL.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 129 AM EDT TUESDAY...SLOW MOVING AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST- NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEST THUNDER THREAT WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT...BUT AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL RANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. REST OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 348 PM EDT MONDAY...ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. AS SURFACE HEATS UP AND SOME CAPE DEVELOPS WILL SEE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FROM ABOUT THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. SPC HAS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN MARGINAL FOR TOMORROW. WITH HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL JET...MAY SEE SOME ORGANIZED STORMS CAUSE DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHILE MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT OUR REGION WILL BE IN COLDER AIR MASS. MAX TEMPS ON WED WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. WILL HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION TO FROST POSSIBILITIES ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...A PERUSAL OF THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. THUS BY AND LARGE A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL BE OFFERED. THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL FEATURE SUBSTANTIAL EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BLOCKING WHICH WILL TEND TO BE REINFORCED BY INFUSED ENERGY FROM ONCE WEST PAC SUPER TYPHOON NOUL. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A SUPPRESSED POLAR JET AND BROAD-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING TO REMAIN INTACT TO ITS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH SEASONABLY COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE BEST SHOT FOR A FEW/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A FAIRLY DISTINCT SURFACE TROUGH, OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MEAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OF SOME CONCERN WILL BE CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THUS PATCHY FROST WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS OUTSIDE THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WHEN CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD. BY SUNDAY ONWARD UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD BEGIN TO ABATE WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. SOME MODEL DISPARITY BY NEXT MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY) WITH THIS MORNING`S OPERATIONAL RUNS NOW SUGGESTING THAT RESIDUAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS MAY SUPPRESS INITIAL RETURN OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE ACCOMPANYING ENSEMBLE MEANS. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS SCT SHOWERS WITH ISOLD THUNDER MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER ACROSS NORTHERN NY THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER THRU 03Z WILL BE AT KSLK/KPBG/KBTV... THEN MAINLY SHOWERS FROM 03-12Z AT MOST TERMINALS WITH PATCHY BR AND MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. MVFR IS MOST LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. DRIER CONDITIONS AND BECOMING MAINLY VFR TUESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER 15Z NORTHERN NY AND AFTER 18Z AT VERMONT SITES. ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 20Z TUE THRU 00Z WED. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 15 GUSTING 25 KTS TUE. OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 00Z WED-00Z THU...MAINLY VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS WED WITH CHC SHOWER. 00Z THU-00Z FRI...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z FRI-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. BRF MVFR PSBL FRI IN SCT SHOWERS. 00Z SAT ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. && .MARINE... AS OF 740 PM EDT MONDAY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS COULD INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVEL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT 15-25 KNOTS. WAVES OF 1-3 FEET ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES/MUCCILLI NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...RJS MARINE...WFO BTV

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