Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 152015 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 315 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper trough and surface low passing northwest of the region will bring scattered snow showers to the North Country late tonight into Saturday morning along with a light accumulation. A brief ridge of high pressure will bring a quiet end to the weekend on Sunday, before the pattern becomes active again next week with several chances for precipitation, especially on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 314 PM EST Friday...The forecast remains on track for a light accumulating snow across the region late tonight through Saturday morning as an upper trough and weak surface low tracking through the Great Lakes this afternoon swing just northwest and over the region. Low/mid level southwest flow ahead of the trough has aided in the development of a lake effect snow band in the lee of Lake Ontario northward up the St. Lawrence River this afternoon with surface obs and area webcams showing on/off snow showers at Ogdensburg and Potsdam over the past few hours. Expect this activity to continue until the trough shifts the flow west/southwest after midnight where at that point snow showers will become more widely scattered across the northern Adirondacks and then points eastward towards sunrise, especially over the northwest upslope favored areas. By mid-morning Saturday activity should be diminishing with area snow totals generally a dusting to 2" with perhaps 3" in the lake effect. Saturday evening and overnight a brief ridge of high pressure builds into the region with clearing skies and light winds aiding in another good night of radiational cooling. Temps will once again fall below normal levels with lows early Sunday morning in the single digits above and below zero. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... As of 343 AM EST Friday...Quiet weather is expected Sunday as a 1030mb high drifts to the east over southern Quebec. The flow aloft will remain northwest as weak ridging occurs aloft. There`s a slight chance of some western slope snow potential as the hires models are keying on some 10-15dbz`s in along the western slopes of the Greens. The safe bet is we`ll see some flurries but very little in the way of accumulation. Temps should be on the chilly side over the weekend with lows Saturday evening in the single digits, and highs on Sunday only warming to the teens, to lower 20s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 410 AM EST Friday....Coming out of the weekend we still anticipate a fairly active pattern. The medium ranged guidance still offers different ideas for how Monday shapes up. The GFS is still the outlier with a dry forecast so I continued the trend towards the CMC/EC with a weak warm advection shortwave that brings some light snow to the region Monday afternoon. By Tuesday the general consensus from the global models is that we`ll have trough of low pressure swing through the North Country. We`ll be under strong warm air advection in the morning and we`ll see temps warm enough to see rain at elevations below 2000ft with some rain/snow mix in the 2000-3000ft range. The higher peaks will most likely stay as snow. Of course timing differences in when the precip arrives will have fairly large consequences on p-type so well just need to monitor and update as a single solution emerges. Regardless of the timing, a cold front will swing through which leads to colder temps on Wednesday. We`ll be looking at northwest flow aloft with westerly flow at the surface, so we should see mainly orographic snow showers along with some lake effect snow developing. The temps should be in the upper 20s to around 30 on Wednesday falling to the single digits to low teens overnight. Based on the current guidance and trends, Thursday should be fairly quiet as high pressure sits to our south. While we wont see much in the way of precip, we`ll still be fairly cloudy as moisture rides along the northern edge of that high pressure system. Highs will be in the 20s with lows Thursday night slightly warmer than Wednesday in the upper teens to low 20s. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Saturday...Overall conditions through 00Z will remain VFR with a mix of VFR and MVFR thereafter as an upper disturbance brings periods of snow showers to the region. Most persistent MVFR will be at KMSS and KSLK through 12Z where local IFR is likely at KSLK in light snow after 06Z. After 12Z improving conditions back towards VFR is expected with snow showers diminishing. Winds light south/southwest turn westerly tomorrow at 5-10 knots. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHSN, Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...Lahiff

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