Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 102353 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 753 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE NORTHEAST RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 753 PM EDT THURSDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CUMULUS CLOUDS STARTING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT STILL LOOKS GOOD...SO NO CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 344 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHALLOW CUMULUS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNSET AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...LOOKING AT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. LOWER DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 344 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO TAKE PLACE. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY...THEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 340 PM EDT THURSDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD...WITH INCREASING CHCS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. SFC HIGH PRES PRES WL MOVE OFF THE ENGLAND COAST LINE ON SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK WARM FRNT FEATURE LIFTING ACRS OUR CWA. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE...AND 5H VORT ALOFT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA...WL PRODUCE SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LIMITED...DUE TO THE LACK OF WARM SFC DWPTS AND CLOUDS LIMITING SFC HEATING. AS WARM FRNT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY MONDAY...PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 14-16C AND LLVL DWPTS WARM INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F...RESULTING IN GREATER INSTABILITY. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SO IF ANY STORMS CAN DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING S/W ENERGY...THEY COULD BE STRONG ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. WL CONT WITH LIKELY POPS SUNDAY AND TAPER TO SCHC SUNDAY NIGHT AS LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT DEVELOPS BEFORE 1ST PIECE OF ENERGY. TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 70S MTNS AND NEAR 80F IN THE VALLEYS SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY 80S ON MONDAY...WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS LIKELY. ON TUESDAY...DEEP MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIGS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE POTENT 5H VORTS LIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SLV. THIS ENERGY ALOFT...COMBINED INCREASINGLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PARAMETERS OF 50 TO 70 KNOTS...INTERACTING WITH SOME INSTABILITY WL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON TUES. THIS EVENT CONTS TO LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH STRONG SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF SFC LOW PRES TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH AND LIMITS OUR INSTABILITY...PER GEM SOLUTION OR MID LVL MOISTURE KEEPS SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY LIMITED...AND THREAT FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH. WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES BY WEDS INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH NEARLY CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXCEPT SOME COLD AIR DRAINAGE WINDS TONIGHT AT TIMES ESPECIALLY AT KRUT. FOR FOG FORMATION IT LOOKS LIKE CROSSOVER TEMPS OF 45-50 WILL BE REACHED AND PASSED BY AT KSLK AND IT WILL BE CLOSE AT KMPV. THOSE ARE THE TWO CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY LATER JULY - EARLY SEP SO HAVE PUT A COUPLE HOURS OF 1/4-1/2SM IN FG 08-11Z. OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 00Z SAT - 12Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOCALIZED EARLY MORNING FOG/BR POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV. 12Z SUN - 00Z WED...VFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...SISSON

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.