Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271429 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 929 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 919 AM EST THURSDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON CRNT CONDITIONS AND LATEST RADAR. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...CPV AND HIGHER TRRN OF NORTH-CENTRAL VT MTNS. THE COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER BL TO 850MB RH...WEAK LLVL CAA...AND UPSLOPE FLW WL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN THRU 18Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION...AS DEPTH OF MOISTURE IS LIMITED. OTHERWISE...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -10C AND -12C MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN...HAVE NOTED A FEW FLURRIES DEVELOPING PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THEREFORE HAVE MENTION CHC POPS ACRS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CPV THRU 16Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. HAVE SWITCHED THE CXX RADAR INTO VCP 31 TO DETECT THE LIGHT PRECIP BETTER. REST OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 20S TO NEAR 30F BY THIS AFTN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY. STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND. OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY. 00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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