Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 291154 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 654 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread precipitation will move across the entire North Country this morning before tapering off from west to east this afternoon. Most of the precipitation will be in the form of rain...but areas east of the Green Mountains in Vermont will see freezing rain and the potential for light ice accumulations. Slippery travel conditions can be expected east of the Greens. A brief break in the weather will exist early Wednesday before another widespread area of rain moves into the region later Wednesday into Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 556 AM EST Tuesday...Overall forecast in good shape. Made some minor tweaks to temperatures and precipitation chances based on surface observations and radar. Then adjusted trends through 14z to match up with remainder of forecast. Previous Discussion... Freezing rain advisory for north central and northeast Vermont remains in place. Have gone ahead and added Windsor county to the advisory. Most areas east of the Greens could see up to a tenth of an inch of ice...thus the continuation/expansion of the advisory. Slippery travel is expected due to the icy conditions. Temperatures east of the Green Mountains in Vermont will remain below freezing through the morning hours while temperatures quickly rise above freezing across western Vermont and northern New York resulting in the majority of the precipitation being in the form of rain. However...there may be some brief pockets of light freezing rain at the onset. Eventually temperatures warm into the 40s across northern New York and western Vermont this afternoon and into the mid/upper 30s over eastern Vermont. Precipitation quickly ends early tonight and lows generally remain in the 30s to around 40 with plenty of cloud cover expected. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 341 AM EST Tuesday...Overall very little change for the middle of the week from previous forecasts as low pressure centered over the Minnesota/Wisconsin border Wednesday morning moves very slowly east over the central Great Lakes by Thursday morning. After a dry but cloudy Wednesday morning, well advertised second wave of low pressure develops along the attending cold frontal boundary extending south/southwest from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf of Mexico, and quickly shifts into the Northeast states by the afternoon accompanied by another round of widespread rainfall with temps continuing above normal in the low 40s east to low 50s west. Rain continues into the first half of Wednesday night as well, until deep layer moisture shifts east of the region after midnight and is replaced by a mid-level dry slot. Some concern is developing for a brief period of southeasterly downslope winds Wednesday evening ahead of the frontal passage as a strong 925-850mb jet of 40-50kts traverses the area, but timing will be critical and current progs indicate mixing will be limited by precipitation during the late afternoon and evening hours. If precipitation moves through faster and the jet is delayed slightly, the potential for 40-50mph gusts will exist, but for now have just highlighted 30-40mph in the climo favored downslope regions along the western slope of the Greens and Adirondacks. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 341 AM EST Tuesday...Unsettled weather continues to be the theme for extended forecast with the aforementioned deep low dominating the North Country`s weather through the weekend as it slowly tracks eastward through southern Quebec Thursday/Friday, and offshore Saturday. Surface cold front shifts east of the area Thursday morning but the mid level flow remains out of the southwest supporting some lake enhanced rain/snow showers, before turning to the west/northwest for Friday and the weekend where a return of more seasonal temperatures and periods of off and on orographic rain/snow showers are expected each day. Finally by Sunday night and Monday, a brief period of surface high pressure and ridging aloft looks to build in, with some sunshine possible to start the work week. && .AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
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Through 12Z Wednesday...First wave of precipitation is moving across the area this morning and is a mix of light rain and light freezing rain. Ceilings are lowering into the MVFR category...but visibilities are remaining in the VFR category. This precipitation will exit the area after 16z...but more precipitation will be moving up into the area from the southwest through 00z. Expect this rain and lower ceilings to result in VFR and MVFR conditions. After 00z...the precipitation will come to an end and ceilings and visibilities will gradually lower into the MVFR and IFR categories...especially after 05z. There will be some low level wind shear at KMPV and KSLK this morning. Winds will be gusty at times from the south and southeast through 00z before tapering off. Outlook 12Z Wednesday through Saturday...Plenty of clouds with mvfr and intervals of ifr conditions prevail thru Wednesday morning...before more rain showers arrive wednesday afternoon into Thursday with periods of ifr cigs/vis possible. Unsettled weather with showers will continue for Thursday....with some mountains snow showers possible Thursday night into the weekend...especially mpv/slk. Mainly mvfr cigs expected with some brief periods of ifr possible in any snow shower activity.
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&& .MARINE... As of 343 AM EST Tuesday...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY is in effect for the open waterS of Lake Champlain today. South to southeasterly winds will briefly increase to 15 to 25 knots along the passage of a warm front today. Winds will likely peak around mid-day to early afternoon, before lowering below 15 knots early this evening. Small vessels should exercise caution if heading out on Lake Champlain today, as forecast winds will create choppy conditions with waves possibly as high as 4 feet for a brief period. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Freezing Rain Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Evenson/Taber MARINE...Lahiff

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