Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 012349 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 749 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION PROVIDING A WELCOMED RETURN TO SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR TOMORROW AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AFTER THIS EVENING, THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COMES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS OF 300 PM WITH MOST RECENT 6-HOURLY TOTAL AT KBTV AROUND 1.8 INCHES OR SO. RESULTANT RUNOFF FROM THE 0.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK, AND PORTIONS OF CLINTON, CHITTENDEN, GRAND ISLE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES WILL CAUSE ELEVATED AND IN SOME CASES RAPID RISES ON AREA CREEKS/STREAMS IN THIS AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. THIS AREA WAS PLACED UNDER BEST DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROFILES WITH WAA IN LOWER LEVELS BRIDGED ALOFT BY CAA AND MODEST 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS. OTHERWISE WE`RE LOOKING AT OVERALL CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER ADDITIONAL EVENING SHOWERS PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE 4 TO 9 PM TIME FRAME AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS NORTHEAST. ACCORDINGLY I`VE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS (40-70%) THROUGH MID- EVENING, THEN TAPERED BACK FAIRLY SHARPLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. LOWS BY MORNING GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FAIRLY NON-EVENTFUL AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE, EXPECT A SEASONABLY MILD AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WHICH WILL BE WELCOME FOR MOST AS WE APPROACH THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGHS BOTH TOMORROW AND ON FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SEASONABLY COOL MAINLY FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S IN ALL BUT THE COOLEST OUTLYING SPOTS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER BACKING OFF ON THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CONSENSUS OF THE NAM/CMC/GFS/EC 12Z RUNS SHOW A WEAKLY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DRIFTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH MODERATE RH PROFILES. THE CONSENSUS ISN`T THERE HOWEVER IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE WILL BE HOWEVER AS BOTH THE GFS AND THE CMC BOTH HAVE A NARROW RIBBON ON DRIER AIR AT THE SOUTHER EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A STRONGER RH PROFILE. ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT LIFTS NORTH WITH A WEAK REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOWEVER THE AIR IS SO DRY TO BEGIN WITH, THAT IT WILL LIKELY NOT RESULT IN MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT RATHER JUST PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE VORT MAX THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION THE CHANCES FOR LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BE MARGINAL AND WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE BEST THE DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SO I FOCUSED THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. WITH MAX TEMPS BOTH SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S I REALLY DONT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AND THUS I DIDN`T MENTION ANY CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN HOW WEAK AND SPARSE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE, EXPECT TOTAL QPF TO BE MINIMAL WITH ONLY LIGHT VALUES IN THE NORTHERN AREAS AND HIGHER PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. SUNDAY THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD IN. AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THERE COULD SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FT. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR WILL RETURN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT BOTH THE 850 AND 700 MB FLOW BRINGING 14C TO 17C 850 TEMPS MEANING MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER MANITOBA IN CANADA WITH A DECENT LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY ON MONDAY. THAT WILL RESULT IN A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING WITH CONTINUITY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WITH DECENT WARMING EXPECTED ON TUESDAY THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED THAT IS I HAVEN`T MENTIONED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BUT AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME EXPECT WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SHOWERS HAVE EITHER MOVED OUT OF THE REGION FOR THE MOST PART...THE ONE EXCEPTION IS A SMALL LINE THAT IS MOVING INTO MPV BUT SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE TEMPORARY MVFR UNTIL 01Z AS IT PASSES. PAST THAT POINT MOST TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH KSLK SEEING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT UP UNTIL SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 05-15 KNOTS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z THURS NIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT POTENTIAL MVFR AT ALL OTHER LOCATIONS FOR THE SAME TIME FRAMES.UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...RJS/MV

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