Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KBTV 291154
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
654 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2016
Widespread precipitation will move across the entire North
Country this morning before tapering off from west to east this
afternoon. Most of the precipitation will be in the form of
rain...but areas east of the Green Mountains in Vermont will see
freezing rain and the potential for light ice accumulations.
Slippery travel conditions can be expected east of the Greens. A
brief break in the weather will exist early Wednesday before
another widespread area of rain moves into the region later
Wednesday into Wednesday night.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 556 AM EST Tuesday...Overall forecast in good shape. Made
some minor tweaks to temperatures and precipitation chances
based on surface observations and radar. Then adjusted trends
through 14z to match up with remainder of forecast.
Freezing rain advisory for north central and northeast Vermont
remains in place. Have gone ahead and added Windsor county to
the advisory. Most areas east of the Greens could see up to a
tenth of an inch of ice...thus the continuation/expansion of the
advisory. Slippery travel is expected due to the icy conditions.
Temperatures east of the Green Mountains in Vermont will remain
below freezing through the morning hours while temperatures
quickly rise above freezing across western Vermont and northern
New York resulting in the majority of the precipitation being in
the form of rain. However...there may be some brief pockets of
light freezing rain at the onset. Eventually temperatures warm
into the 40s across northern New York and western Vermont this
afternoon and into the mid/upper 30s over eastern Vermont.
Precipitation quickly ends early tonight and lows generally
remain in the 30s to around 40 with plenty of cloud cover
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 341 AM EST Tuesday...Overall very little change for the
middle of the week from previous forecasts as low pressure
centered over the Minnesota/Wisconsin border Wednesday morning
moves very slowly east over the central Great Lakes by Thursday
morning. After a dry but cloudy Wednesday morning, well
advertised second wave of low pressure develops along the
attending cold frontal boundary extending south/southwest from
the Ohio Valley to the Gulf of Mexico, and quickly shifts into
the Northeast states by the afternoon accompanied by another
round of widespread rainfall with temps continuing above normal
in the low 40s east to low 50s west.
Rain continues into the first half of Wednesday night as well, until
deep layer moisture shifts east of the region after midnight and is
replaced by a mid-level dry slot. Some concern is developing for a
brief period of southeasterly downslope winds Wednesday evening
ahead of the frontal passage as a strong 925-850mb jet of 40-50kts
traverses the area, but timing will be critical and current progs
indicate mixing will be limited by precipitation during the late
afternoon and evening hours. If precipitation moves through faster
and the jet is delayed slightly, the potential for 40-50mph gusts
will exist, but for now have just highlighted 30-40mph in the climo
favored downslope regions along the western slope of the Greens and
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 341 AM EST Tuesday...Unsettled weather continues to be
the theme for extended forecast with the aforementioned deep low
dominating the North Country`s weather through the weekend as
it slowly tracks eastward through southern Quebec
Thursday/Friday, and offshore Saturday. Surface cold front
shifts east of the area Thursday morning but the mid level flow
remains out of the southwest supporting some lake enhanced
rain/snow showers, before turning to the west/northwest for
Friday and the weekend where a return of more seasonal
temperatures and periods of off and on orographic rain/snow
showers are expected each day. Finally by Sunday night and
Monday, a brief period of surface high pressure and ridging
aloft looks to build in, with some sunshine possible to start
the work week.
.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
-- Changed Discussion --Through 12Z Wednesday...First wave of precipitation is moving
across the area this morning and is a mix of light rain and
light freezing rain. Ceilings are lowering into the MVFR
category...but visibilities are remaining in the VFR category.
This precipitation will exit the area after 16z...but more
precipitation will be moving up into the area from the southwest
through 00z. Expect this rain and lower ceilings to result in
VFR and MVFR conditions. After 00z...the precipitation will come
to an end and ceilings and visibilities will gradually lower
into the MVFR and IFR categories...especially after 05z. There
will be some low level wind shear at KMPV and KSLK this morning.
Winds will be gusty at times from the south and southeast through
00z before tapering off.
Outlook 12Z Wednesday through Saturday...Plenty of clouds with
mvfr and intervals of ifr conditions prevail thru Wednesday
morning...before more rain showers arrive wednesday afternoon
into Thursday with periods of ifr cigs/vis possible. Unsettled
weather with showers will continue for Thursday....with some
mountains snow showers possible Thursday night into the
weekend...especially mpv/slk. Mainly mvfr cigs expected with
some brief periods of ifr possible in any snow shower activity.
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As of 343 AM EST Tuesday...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY is in effect
for the open waterS of Lake Champlain today. South to
southeasterly winds will briefly increase to 15 to 25 knots
along the passage of a warm front today. Winds will likely peak
around mid-day to early afternoon, before lowering below 15
knots early this evening. Small vessels should exercise caution
if heading out on Lake Champlain today, as forecast winds will
create choppy conditions with waves possibly as high as 4 feet
for a brief period.
VT...Freezing Rain Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for