Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271417 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1017 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TODAY...PROVIDING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1013 AM EDT THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING...WITH LESS COVERAGE ELSEWHERE ACROSS FORECAST AREA. LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THEN A DECREASE IN COVERAGE EXPECTED AS AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. MADE A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS...CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. STILL LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TRAVERSING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES. BASE OF 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY, PRODUCING PLENTIFUL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE MORNING. AFTER 18Z, MODELS SHOW THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO NH AND ME. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WHILE AT THE SURFACE, RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL DECREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY WITH GENERAL DRYING TREND WITH PWATS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH. CLOUDY SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND INTO THE EVENING VALLEYS WILL CLEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, RANGING FROM MID 60S TO MID 70S AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE BEHIND TODAYS MAIN TROUGHINESS MAY KEEP CLOUDS LINGERING TONIGHT, BUT LOOKS TO EXIT SOUTHEAST BEFORE DAWN. GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW 925MB TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIVERGE ON APPROACHING 500MB TROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. HAVE OPTED FOR GENERALLY DRY SCENARIO AS MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY DELAY PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH. SO EXPECT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 433 AM EDT THURSDAY...WARM SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN TO RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND INTO THE 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF HINTING AT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS DRY. HAVE STAYED WITH SUPERBLEND POPS AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS. ECMWF MODEL HAS A CLOSED UPPER LOW/UPPER ROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FROM SUNDAY TGHROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT KEEP THIS SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF HINTS AT SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A WEAKER UPPER LOW/UPPER TROUGH FURTHER SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AND KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIODWHILE BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE LOW SUPERBLEND POPS AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ECMWF MODEL DOES BUILD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S...WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. GIVEN SCATTERED NATURE OF RAIN SHOWERS HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS IN TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z FRIDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 012Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 12Z FRIDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE. 18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VFR. IFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

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