Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 231749 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 149 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AND MORE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 139 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST VERMONT ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO THE ADIRONDACKS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS LINE HAS BEEN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO STILL POSSIBLE. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY TRENDS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD AND IS BRIDGED ALOFT BY CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN MEAN ERN CONUS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH. WILL STILL ADVERTISE JUST AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SECONDARY SFC TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND WASHES OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH SUCH DRY LOWER AND MID LEVELS AND THE LARGER VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD RANGING THROUGH THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY SEASONABLY COOL FROM 45 TO 55 ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 329 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE`S A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY AMONG 00Z/23 GUIDANCE SUITE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WELL SPECIFIED MID- TROPOSPHERIC REGIME ADVERTISED IN SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES FEATURES PHASING OF A LARGE NORTHEASTERN NOAM UPPER LOW WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THAT RESULTS IN WESTWARD RETROGRESSION OF MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT AND MAINTAINS CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN A LIKELY SLOW-EVOLVING PATTERN THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST IN ITS DEPICTION OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE...PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TOWARD THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED. SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/PSBL STORMS - THOUGH NOTHING THAT SEEMS TO BE A WASHOUT ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY - AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS. I CARRIED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN TIER/MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TRENDING DRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SHOWN AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES WESTWARD...LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED INSTABILITY OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT FEEL CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD BE LOWER EACH DAY GOING FORWARD AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT GETS PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...HAVE TIMED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO GROUPS...2-3 HRS AT A TIME. ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED THREAT OF HAIL. SOUTH WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH WINDS LOOK TO DROP OFF SOME THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT POST- FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES STILL SUGGEST LOWER CEILINGS TO LINGER WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF GREATER CLEARING CAN OCCUR...THEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG 06-12Z FOR MPV AND SLK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AND WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THU - MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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AS OF 1131 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP AT THIS TIME SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAINLY NORTH OF A PLATTSBURGH-SAINT ALBANS LINE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FEET EXPECTED. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS LIGHTNING. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...LOCONTO AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO MARINE...WGH

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