Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 291726 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 126 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK BY MIDDAY ON THURSDAY AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1155 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 80S WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF HEATING TO GO. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWING BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...BUT STILL CAPPED FOR THE TIME BEING. CU FIELD IS STARTING TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 958 AM WEDNESDAY... RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT DAY. DO HAVE SOME THIN CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO OBSCURE THE SUN. WILL ALSO HAVE A CU-FIELD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE TERRAIN. LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS ARE ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AREA-WIDE. THE HEAT COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 91 TO 97 DEGREES. THE HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED...BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY PRODUCE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. WITH ONLY LIMITED WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS 0-6KM)...A SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 414 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MIDDAY. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS RATHER SHARP...SO THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A GOOD SOURCE OF LIFT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS WILL INTO THE 60S. STILL EXPECTING THIS TO RESULT IN CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. WHAT CONTINUES TO STAND OUT IS THE INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE TOP OF THE COLD FRONT AND INSTABILITY AXIS TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...SHOULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. AT THIS TIME...THINKING STORMS FORM OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY WITH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND REMAINDER OF VERMONT HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN THE FORECAST. NARROW BAND OF STORMS EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING AND WITH COLD FRONT ALSO EXITING THE AREA...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 310 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING IN REGARDS TO THE UPCOMING PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL MODELS REMAINING IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A LARGE-SCALE POLAR UPPER LOW TAKING RESIDENCE OVER HUDSONS BAY. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHEAST IN A PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. FIRST PIECE MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS ENERGY COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH WITH THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING AND LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RAINFALL SHOULD BE SHOWERY IN NATURE AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE PERIOD STILL LOOK TO BE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A COUPLE STRONGER SHORTWAVES SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS A BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTHWEST (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT KPBG/KRUT) AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY, GOING CALM AGAIN AFTER 00Z. WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE PICK UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FOG AT KSLK BUT STILL POSSIBLE AT KMPV. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALG/AHD COLD FRONT IN NRN NY BETWEEN 14-17Z AND AFT 17Z IN VT. OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 18Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE. 00Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG. 12Z SAT - 00Z MON: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON/MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...SLW

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.