Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KBTV 240224
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1024 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017
High pressure continues to keep the North Country dry through
Monday night. Low pressure will move up along the Eastern
seaboard bringing our next chance for showers Tuesday and
Wednesday, especially across south-central and eastern portions
of Vermont. A surface cold front will bring the potential for
more showers, and potentially a thunderstorm, Thursday night
into Friday. Above normal temperatures are expected throughout
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 1023 PM EDT Sunday...Forecast remains on track. Quiet
weather for the near term as high pressure remains over the
area. Clouds will increase from the north during the pre-dawn
hrs as a cold front moves across southern Quebec tonight and
into the North Country. As of 02Z, mid-level cloud deck has
reached the intl border, including OVC110 at KMSS. Frontal
convergence is of limited depth, and with dry air mass in place,
it appears the front will come through dry, with just a period
of cloudiness overnight into early Monday. Combination of
northerly winds and gradually decreasing clouds on Monday will
lead to cooler max temperatures in the 50s to the north and
upper 50s to 60s areas south. Monday night will start with
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies but have clouds increasing
from the south late in the night ahead of a coastal low.
Temperatures will fall into the 30s Monday night.
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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 313 PM EDT Sunday...Cool and damp conditions
expected...along with some breezy winds along the western slopes
from Danby to Rutland to East Middlebury to Underhill. Still
anticipating several waves of light rain to move from south to north
across our fa with 1st round btwn 15z and 21z Tuesday and 2nd wave
impacting our eastern/central cwa on btwn 09z and 15z Weds. Leading
5h vort and initial 850 to 500mb moisture quickly expands across our
region on Tuesday...while developing south/southeast low level winds
increase at 30 to 40 knots. The best winds associated with low level
925mb to 850mb se jet stay to our east...but still thinking a few
gusts to 30 knots possible along the western slopes on Tuesday. The
jet orientation will impact qpf fields with slightly higher amounts
on se upslope regions and less across the eastern cpv/western
slopes. General qpf will range between 0.05 and 0.25 for 1st round.
Next round of precip is associated with tightly compacted closed
mid/upper level cyclonic circulation and weak 1005mb low pres moving
along the eastern seaboard. Latest guidance continues to show a
sharp west to east precip gradient across our cwa...with minimal qpf
west and up to another 0.50 or so eastern/southeast sections on
Weds. Based on low level jet orientation/placement and pws near 1.0"
this looks reasonable. Have mention likely to cat pops east and
tapered to chc west on Weds with a sharp gradient in qpf fields.
Temps will also be depend upon clouds/precip with highs tues only in
the m/u 40s se section to mid/upper 50s nw areas...and near 70f SLV
to upper 50s CT River Valley on Weds. Lows hold mainly in the 40s on
Tuesday night with clouds/precip.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 313 PM EDT Sunday...Much above normal temps expected on
Thursday ahead of approaching cold front...with a band of
showers and embedded thunderstorms anticipated Thursday
aftn/night...before cooler air arrives by next week. Mid/upper
level ridge builds ahead of developing s/w energy over the great
lakes on Thurs...placing our CWA in the warm sector. The slower
fropa arrival allows for 925mb temps to warm between 20-
22c...with 850mb temps near 15c on breezy south winds. Have gone
3 to 5 degrees above superblend with highs mainly m/u 70s
mountain valleys to lower 80s warmer valleys away from Lake
Champlain. GFS continues to show an axis of instability ahead of
short wave energy and cold front with CAPE values btwn 800-1200
j/kg. Still some uncertainty with timing of fropa and
associated impacts. Cooler air eventually arrives late Friday
into Saturday...with a sharp boundary draped somewhere across
the ne conus/mid Atlantic states next weekend. This will produce
a sharp divide in warm/unstable air to our south and
cooler/drier air to our north...with unsettled wx located near
the boundary. Plenty of uncertainty on exact placement of
boundary and potential impacts at days 6 and 7...so kept mention
of chc pops with temps very close to superblend values...mainly
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR conditions prevail with generally
light winds, except in the St Lawrence Valley with gusts
15-20kts in channeling effects through around 03z this evening.
Clouds increase from the north overnight with a brief window of
MVFR at SLK/BTV from 07z- 09z with otherwise VFR ceilings.
During the morning on Monday anticipate some clearing across the
northern TAF sites with all sites expected to remain VFR Monday
morning and afternoon.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.