Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 201132 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 732 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND CREATE SOME FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 718 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENSIVE REGION OF CLOUDS EXISTS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY ERODING. EVEN GETTING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW YORK AND VERMONT AND THUS HAVE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDDAY. OTHERWISE COLD AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 418 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE CLEARING TREND CONTINUES AND WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO THE POINT WHERE SOME FROST MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT COULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY AND CREATING WIDESPREAD FROST. SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED PATCHY FROST FOR NOW IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 409 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXCELLENT MODEL CONSISTENCY CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY UNFOLDING GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WE START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WILL USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AREA-WIDE WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE THE TYPICALLY COLDER REGIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD BE WARRANTED BUT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WINDS DROPPING OFF WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDING INTO 4-8KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH MAY INHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL BUT DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH, BUT OVERALL MOST OF THE ARES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE RUNNERS PARTICIPATING IN THE VERMONT CITY MARATHON HAPPY, WITH A NICE COOL START TO THE RACE EXPECTED IN THE 50S, WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR THE RACE END AND AFTERNOON FESTIVITIES. AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO UNFOLD IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND DIFFERENTLY, AFFECTING CHANCES FOR PRECIP MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHERE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE AND BUILDS IT INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE GFS NUDGES IT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING A FAST WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GFS SOLUTION WOULD INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE ECMWF IS JUST SLOWER OFFERING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVING TUESDAY INSTEAD. THIS FAR OUT, I`M GOING TO PLAY IT SAFE AND OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BKN-OVC VFR DECK AROUND 050-060KFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR THROUGH 14Z, THEN TREND TO SCT-BKN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SKC BY 00Z. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18-25KTS THROUGH THE DAY, BUT ABATE AFTER 00Z TO AROUND 3-6KTS. OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 12Z THURSDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. 00Z SATURDAY - 12Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH A COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.
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&& .MARINE... AS OF 412 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY. WHILE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT THIS MORNING, THEY ARE FORECAST TO PICK BACK UP TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED, CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE OPEN WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE OPERATING ON THE LAKE TODAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF MARINE...LAHIFF

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