Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 260239 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1039 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING FAR ENOUGH AWAY ON FRIDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER TO RETURN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1028 PM EDT TUESDAY...MAJORITY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY - WHICH AFFECTED MUCH OF ERN VT EARLIER THIS EVENING - HAS LIFTED NNEWD INTO SRN QUEBEC IN PREVAILING SSW DEEP-LAYER FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. STILL A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS FAR N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VT. ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY MOVING NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AS WELL, AND FCST REFLECTS DIMINISHING POPS OVERNIGHT. NARROW AXIS OF CLEARING BETWEEN DEPARTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND WIDESPREAD STRATOCU EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL/NOCTURNAL FOG FORMATION IN SPOTS. THE MOST FAVORED SPOTS ARE THOSE THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...FROM RUTLAND COUNTY NORTH AND EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS. HAVE INDICATED PATCHY FOG IN THESE LOCATIONS. A FEW SWATHS OF 1.5-2.5" KCXX-88D RAINFALL ESTIMATES OCCURRED TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF LAMOILLE/ORLEANS COUNTIES...AND ALSO FURTHERN SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF ORANGE INTO CALEDONIA COUNTIES. RAIN GUAGE TOTALS INCLUDED 1.59" AT 1V4 ASOS AND A 2.81" AT WEST TOPSHAM MESONET. DEVELOPMENT/REDEVELOPMENT OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR NY ZONES SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH FOG FORMATION ACROSS NRN NY OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING GENERALLY 55-62F...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR ON OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS REGION WILL BE IN GENERAL LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THUS LOOKING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY ALL LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY AS TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND THUS NOT FEELING THUNDER THREAT WILL BE THAT GREAT IN THE COMING DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS STILL INDICATE FAIRLY ROBUST RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EURO IS STRONGER WITH THE PATTERN, WHICH APPEARS TO BUILD A BLOCKING RIDGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS ISN`T AS AGGRESSIVE, AND AS A RESULT OUR AREA IS A LITTLE MORE SUBJECT TO SHORTWAVES ZIPPING BY IN THE FAST FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. OVERALL, LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD OF TIME, WITH TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE EXTREME WARMTH -- AS EVEN THE EURO WHICH IS THE WARMER MODEL HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES REACHING 16-17C MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. GIVEN A BLEND WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS AND IT`S 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-16C, MAINTAINING THE CONCEPT OF LOW-MID 80S FOR HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK SEEMS TO MAKE THE MOST SENSE. AS I MENTIONED, IT DOES LOOK FAIRLY DRY, THOUGH WITH A SHORTWAVE ZIPPING BY IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIMEFRAME, IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR T-STORM TO FIRE OFF. THIS FAR OUT, TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT IF THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING, THEN THE CHANCES ARE BETTER. THAT SAID, LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES FROM THE GFS (WHICH KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE STRONGEST), I DON`T SEE A LOT OF MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY. IN FACT, THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT TIED IN WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. ALL SAID, I HAVE MAINTAINED GENERALLY 15-25% POPS FOR THE WEEKEND -- WELL BELOW THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE WHICH WAS CLOSER TO 50%. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY....PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT MPV/SLK/RUT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SCATTERED VFR DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOG/BR DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS (MPV/SLK)...BUT ESPECIALLY MPV WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND VERY SMALL EVENING DEW POINT DEPRESSION. RUT ALSO LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF FOG/BR WITH EVENING RAINFALL AND WEAKER THAN USUAL SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WIND. ANY FOG/BR WILL LIFT BY 13Z WEDNESDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE AND IMPACT...WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WINDS LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT WILL TURN WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 4-9 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT PBG WITH LAKE BREEZE. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 00Z THURSDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. A BRIEF LOCALIZED PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER ON THURSDAY. LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHTS AT SLK AND MPV IS ALSO LIKELY. 00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR, THOUGH SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...NASH AVIATION...MUCCILLI

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