Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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175 FXUS61 KBTV 010815 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 415 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAINFALL INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN ON MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND N-CNTRL VT THIS MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND A WARM FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM W-CNTRL NY AND PA. A GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP CLOSE TO WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295/300K SFCS INDICATES PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE FCST AREA BTWN 12Z-16Z. INITIALLY...THE COLUMN WILL BE DRY...BUT SHOULD RAPIDLY SATURATE. THE E/SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL A BIT ALONG THE ERN SPINE OF THE NRN DACKS...AND THE NRN GREENS. POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE TWO TENTHS TO HALF AN INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY EVENING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE BLAST OF STRONG LIFT WITH THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ACCORDING TO THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEFS BY THE EARLY EVENING...BUT RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLUMN WILL BE SATURATED...AND DESPITE THE WEAKER LIFT OVER THE REGION...HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE CONTINUED TONIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40-45F RANGE WITH SOME U30S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. MONDAY...ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...ANOTHER SHORT- WAVE AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND UPSTATE NY MONDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL IMPACT THE FCST AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE IS GOOD QG LIFT FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE THICKENESS ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO SUNDAY WITH 40S TO L50S OVER NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH A BUBBLE HIGH BUILDING IN OVER SE CANADA AND NRN NY AND VT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION MAY PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS OVER CNTRL VT. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS INCLUDED TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECTED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. AFTER LOWS IN THE M30S TO L40S...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE U50S TO L60S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U40S TO M50S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ERN FLANK OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE MDEIUM RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW STRONG THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE. INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BTWN 12Z-16Z ACROSS NRN NY AND N-CNTRL VT IN STRATIFORM RAINSHIELD. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS BY NOONTIME. THE RAINSHIELD SHOULD NICELY EXPAND WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VSBYS BTWN 3-5 SM. THE MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME IFR STRATUS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY AND NRN VT IN THE 21Z/SUN TO 01Z/MON TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS AT THIS TIME. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE OR S AT 5-10 KTS. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 06Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/PSBL IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS. 12Z TUE - 00Z THU:GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WASULA/NEILES NEAR TERM...WASULA SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...WASULA

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