Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 130826 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 426 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY... LIFTING INTO CANADA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. FOR TONIGHT ON INTO MONDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING STEADY RAINS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 426 AM EDT SUNDAY....THE BEGINNING OF A WET WX PATTERN STARTS TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LKS REGION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. CLD COVER FROM THIS SYSTEM ALREADY HAS CWA UNDER CLDY CONDITIONS. SPOT -RW EARLIER WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE ORGANIZED RW/TRW AS MORNING HRS PROGRESS. CURRENTLY...LEADING EDGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG FRONT NOW MVG INTO WESTERN NY VIA LK ONTARIO...WITH A ENE PATH. EXPECTING TRACK OF FRONT TO KEEP HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES THRU THE DAY. AS DAY PROGRESSES DO EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDER TO DEVELOP..ESPECIALLY IN AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. MVMNT OF SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ON A ENE TREK GOING INTO THE EVENING/OVERNGT HRS AS MDLS SHIFT FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO AREAS...SO A TAPERING OF PRECIP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WILL COMMENCE W/ ST LAW VALLEY SEEING LAST TRAUNCH OF LIGHT -RW LATE TNGT. QPF WITH EXPECTED PRECIP ACTIVITY TODAY/TNGT WILL RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS SOUTH TO ALMOST 0.30-0.40" IN NORTHERN BORDER ZONES. THIS RAIN COMBINED WITH INCR TEMPS TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH ENTIRE REGION GOING INTO WARM SECTOR WILL AID IN SNOWMELT AND INCR FLOODING THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED FLOOD WATCH AS A RESULT. OVERALL HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE IN THE 60S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN ZONES FURTHEST REMOVED FROM FRONTAL PRECIP/CLDS. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 50S WITH LITTLE DROP DUE TO INCR SOUTHERLY FETCH WITH AREA GOING FULLY INTO WARM SECTOR.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 426 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING INTO MONDAY...CWA INTO WARM SECTOR WITH WARM FRONT DRAPED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO. STRONG WAA WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY AS SSW WIND INCR SHARPLY. 850/925MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 70S FOR HIGH TEMPS W/ SOME SPOTS APPROACHING 80F. GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THRU THE DAY WITH 15-25MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 40MPH IN SPOTS. MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE PRECIP-FREE...BUT INCREASING AFTNOON CLDS AHEAD OF FRONT WITH SOME INSTABILITY COULD TRIGGER A FEW -RW/-TRW BFR MAIN FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT. FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TRAVERSE CWA AT NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH HEAVIEST POPS DURING TUESDAY. QPF NEARING AN INCH WITH STEADY RAINS OVER AREA. WILL ALSO CONTINUE MENTION OF TRW AS AREAS WILL STILL SEE WK INSTABILITY THRU PORTION OF DAY. LATER IN THE DAY AS FRONT MVS EAST...COLDER AIR ION BACKSIDE WILL BEGIN TO CHANCE RW TO SW. EVENTUALLY HIR ELEV IN CWA COULD SEE 1-2" OF ACCUM THRU 00Z WED. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN VT TO THE 50S(DROPPING DURING THE DAY) BACK ACROSS N NY WITH COLDER AIR BLEEDING INTO AREA.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL MINOR TO MODERATE MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING FROM CONTINUED RUNOFF AND RIVER RISES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR OR EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. ANAFRONTAL STRUCTURE OF BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALLOW PCPN TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL QUICKLY TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WITH 850MB TEMPS CRASHING TO -14C BY 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS NRN NY EWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL VT. BASED ON GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...SHOULD SEE A FEW HRS OF WET SNOW BEFORE PCPN ENDS. A SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2-4" IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 1000-1500 FT...WITH A SLUSHY DUSTING TO 1" ACROSS THE VALLEYS. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S MOST SECTIONS BY DAYBREAK...BUT LOCALLY 18-23F ACROSS NRN NY. THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CURTAIL RUNOFF FROM TUESDAY/S EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN. THAT SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE SHARP RIVER RISES WITH MANY MAIN-STEM RIVERS CRESTING EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THRU 00Z THURSDAY...AND ANTICIPATE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ISSUES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WEATHER IMPROVES CONSIDERABLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREAS. GUSTY NW WINDS 10-20 MPH EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN BEFORE GRADUALLY LESSENING AS P-GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPS ONLY RECOVER TO -9C TO -10C BY 00Z THURSDAY...SO WEDNESDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE A CHILLY DAY DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN THE MID 40S WITH DOWNSLOPING INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY. MOSTLY CLEAR AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS GIVEN DRY 1000-500MB RH VALUES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S ON THURSDAY...AND AROUND 60F FOR FRIDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED UPR LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NERN CONUS BRINGING RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO IS GENERALLY ABSENT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT DID APPEAR IN THE PREVIOUS RUN. FOR NOW...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN INDICATED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH POTENTIAL OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND RAIN...KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 50S FOR SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS NY WILL ALLOW LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE 09-15Z BEFORE BULK OF ACTIVITY LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT PROBABILITY WASN/T SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT SPECIFIC MENTION IN THE TAFS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AFTER 14-15Z...AND GENERALLY PERSIST THRU SUNSET. CONTINUED MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VFR CEILINGS (SCT- BKN050-080). OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15-25 KTS. SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH MVFR AND INTERVALS OF IFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS NRN NY...AND THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY ALL TAF SITES. PRECIPITATION MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING AT MPV/SLK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF VT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR WED-THU. && .HYDROLOGY...
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AS OF 426 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENHANCED THREAT OF MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING WILL EXIST TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT. HIGHEST THREAT OF FLOODING SHOULD INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WATERSHEDS THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT DUE TO SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. BASIN-AVG QPF DURING THE INITIAL TIME FRAME RANGES FROM 0.33-0.66 INCHES WITH MOST CONCERN ALONG THE CHAZY...MISSISQUOI AND LAMOILLE RIVERS. LESS OF A CONCERN INITIALLY ON BASINS FURTHER SOUTH...BUT LEVELS ARE RUNNING HIGH (CENV1 CASE IN POINT) SO WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THINGS. STILL LOTS OF RIPE SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO MELT OUT. SECOND ROUND OF MODERATE/HEAVIER PCPN TO OCCUR LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES REGION. DURING THIS SECOND WAVE...BASIN-AVG QPF RANGES FROM 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS ALONG WITH MORE RAPID SNOMELT GIVES RISE FOR FLOODING CONCERN ACROSS MANY BASINS...INCLUDING THE OTTER CREEK...WINOOSKI...MAD AND PASSUMPSIC TO NAME A FEW. NOT LOOKING AT MAJOR FLOODING AT THIS POINT...BUT MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BY LATER TUESDAY NITO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WE LOSE MOST OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK BELOW 2500 FEET.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035- 087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JN NEAR TERM...JN SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS HYDROLOGY...JMG

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