Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 280754 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 354 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC SWD ACROSS VT AT 07Z WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD THIS MORNING. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND UPSTREAM SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE NWLY WINDS ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING. NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS 14-22Z. SHOULD GENERALLY SEE DEWPOINTS FALLING THRU THE 50S AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW AS WELL. THE NAM AND LOCAL BTV 4KM AND 12KM WRF MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER VORT WHICH PASSES THRU THIS AFTERNOON. CARRIED A LIMITED 20 POP ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF DAYTIME WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF NRN GREENS INTO NERN VT...MOST SECTIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO +6 TO +7C THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. QUIET TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS NRN NY BY 12Z FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS WILL SEE NOCTURNAL FOG 04-12Z...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 40S...WITH A FEW READINGS 38-39F IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS (INCLUDING KSLK). && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY DEEP-LAYER CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S. DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH DEVELOPING S-SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S. ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME MID-UPR LEVEL CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT. GRADIENT BECOMES MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN...AND SHOULD SEE SOME 15-20 KT WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 10-20 MPH) WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO WARM TO +14 TO +15C BY MID-AFTN...AND HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F ELSEWHERE. PRESENCE OF UPR RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN NY. GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET...MAINLY THROUGH 00Z...BEFORE SKIES BECOME CLEAR FOR ALL AREAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 13Z AND 23Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE COME SUNSET. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...06Z FRI-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. 12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...EVENSON

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