Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 200442 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1242 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES FALL OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME PROTECTED HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING WET WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 1242 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS AFFECTING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT...BUT CLEARING TAKING PLACE ELSEWHERE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. HAVE TWEAKED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A BIT AS WELL DUE TO THE CHANGING CLOUD CONDITIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS. TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST 12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5 STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDITIONAL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS REASONABLE AT THE MOMENT.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. RATHER SOLID DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BUT CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END AT KSLK. A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS DURING MONDAY. OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS POSSIBLE. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE/MTN WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HANSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...HANSON LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...RJS

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