Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 270733 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 333 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 1500 FEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT... WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 121 AM EDT FRIDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS OF THIS ESTF UPDATE. THE MAIN CORE OF THE PRECIP HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT THE THREAT IS NOW TRENDING TOWARDS AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WITH BOTH RUTLAND AND SPRINGFIELD REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES. TEMPS/POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH NO CHANCES NEEDED. WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT BUT DONT EXPECT ANY WIDE SCALE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH 8AM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1048 PM THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS OUT THERE OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING RAIN TO CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOL OFF OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THUS LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS VERMONT. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS INTO SATURDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 331 AM EDT FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND AN ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS. A FEW MINOR TROUGHS/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN W-NW FLOW EXPECTED...WITH MAIN LIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO GENERALLY LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO 1-2" OF SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMTS GENERALLY AOA 1000FT. MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDINESS...AND ALSO CARRIED 20-30 POPS ACROSS NRN NY ZONES FOR RAIN/MTN SNOW SHOWERS AS BEST DIFFERENTIAL PVA PASSES BY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY FAIR TUESDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NARROW RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NERN CONUS INTO QUEBEC. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S. MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TO WSWLY ON THURSDAY WITH WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LIKELY BRINGS ANOTHER PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...SIGNIFICANT QPF APPEARS UNLIKELY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY AGAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO NORMS...WITH AFTERNOON READINGS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...LINGERING AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL DIMINISH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW-NE ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. THAT SAID...WILL SEE A WIDE RANGE OF CEILING AND VSBY CONDITIONS AT THE TAF LOCATIONS...AS THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE. GENERALLY VFR AT PBG/BTV...BUT LIFR WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES FOR MPV/MSS/SLK/RUT WITH LOW CEILINGS IN PLACE. AREAS OF MIST ARE ALSO EXPECTED. UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINTAINING MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT SLK THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT (AND VARIABLE) EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK P-GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NW 5-10 KTS OR SO AFTER 15Z AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS...AND REMAINING NW TO NORTH 5-10 KTS FRIDAY EVENING RIGHT THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CENTRAL/ERN VT WITH ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR. 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS/SLK. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING/ICE JAM CONCERNS. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40S...WHERE SNOWPACK IS NOT SIGNIFICANT AND SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ABOVE 2000 FEET. SO RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT WILL BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS... RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE SLOWLY BUT GIVEN THEY ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...RIVER ICE WILL BE MELTING AND COULD BREAK UP A BIT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING TONIGHT TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL ICE MELT/BREAKUP. THE SMALLER RIVERS OVER VERMONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ICE BREAKUP THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS HYDROLOGY...EVENSON

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.