Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 251955 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 355 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...WITH AN INFLUX OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S TUESDAY...BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...QUIET NIGHT ON TAP AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SE...ALLOWING FOR S/SW FLOW TO SLOWLY FILTER IN MORE MOIST AIRMASS. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS AND SFC TEMPS MORE MILD THAN LAST. OVERALL MORNING MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE M50S-M60S WITH FOG DEVELOPING IN FAVORED VALLEYS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD...WITH LGT S/SW FLOW INCREASING PWATS TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE IN THE SW FLOW TO THE M-U TEENS...RESULTING IN THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE L-M 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND U60S-L70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. UPSTREAM...CLOSED SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND HEAD EASTWARD...DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TUESDAY EVENING...500MB HT FALLS MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY...ALLOWING FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL TO INCREASE IN THE SLV OVERNIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON PROGRESSION OF HT FALLS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SFC. THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE LACKING IN DEFORMATION...PWATS TOP OUT AROUND 1.75 INCHES...AND MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. OVERALL LACK OF FORCING WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN SLGT CHC TO LOW CHC RANGE STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...COLDER TEMPS WILL BE OVER NY IN THE 70S...WHILE EXPECT THE CPV AND MOST OF VT TO REACH THE L80S IN WARMER AIR. UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIP ENDING AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 310 PM EDT MONDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE 00Z RUNS, HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH OF A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT MY OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL PLAY OUT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, IS STILL FUZZY. LAST WEEK I WAS OPTIMISTICALLY HOPEFULLY IT WOULD BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND, BUT NOW IT`S NOT LOOKING THAT WAY. BELOW ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS: THURSDAY: MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING BY JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THE IDEA OF THIS LEADING TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST VERMONT LOOKS GOOD. HAVE MAINTAINED 15-20% POPS IN THAT AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND 6-8C, AND THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SHOULD HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, SO THIS COULD TAP SOME OF THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. NOTHING REAL STRONG, BUT WE COULD GET SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. I EXPECT THURSDAY TO BE ONE OF THOSE "HMMM...IT SORT OF LOOKS AND FEELS LIKE FALL" KIND OF DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, IT SHOULD GET RATHER CHILLY. LOTS OF 40S, EXCEPT LOW 50S RIGHT ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN. MID/UPPER 30S LOOKS A GOOD BET FOR THE COLD SPOTS. AS SUCH, WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS FOR THOSE COLDER AREAS. FRIDAY: HIGH MOVES OFF AND WE GET INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION MOISTURE/CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY, PERHAPS A BIT TOO MUCH. ECMWF REALLY HOLDS THAT WARM AIR RETURN OFF ANOTHER 12-24 HOURS. TOOK A BLEND BETWEEN THE MODELS AND KEEP IT MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 70-75 (STILL BELOW NORMAL). FRIDAY NIGHT, CLOUDS WILL KEEP IT FROM GETTING AS COLD. LOTS OF 50S, WITH 40S IN THE COLDER AREAS (ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST VERMONT). SATURDAY: AREA WILL BE IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW, WITH WARMER/SOMEWHAT MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. NO STRONG TRIGGER FOR PRECIPITATION, BUT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AROUND. THUS CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE TO 15-17C, BUT THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP US FROM REALIZING THE MAXIMUM POTENTIAL OF THAT WARMTH, SO MID/UPPER 70S PERHAPS A SPOT 80F DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN, SHOULD DO IT. HAVE PAINTED INTO THE GRIDDED DATABASE ROUGHLY 25-35% CHANCE POPS. SUNDAY: DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE MORE SIGNIFICANT. GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. GFS INDICATES A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN, WITH AMOUNTS PUSHING OVER 1 INCH. THE EURO ON THE OTHER HAND IS WEAKER WITH THE DYNAMICS, SO TAKEN AT IT`S FACE VALUE OFFERS UP ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. THIS FAR OUT THE MODEL BLEND IS THE WAY I`LL HANDLE IT. SO THE 40-50% POPS LOOK ADEQUATE AT THIS POINT. MONDAY: MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE. THE FASTER 12Z GFS OFFERS UP A SUNNY/DRY MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF SAYS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN. THE 06Z GFS WAS ALSO IN THIS SLOWER, STILL A BIT WET, CAMP AS WELL -- SO PERHAPS THE 12Z GFS IS THE OUTLIER. THIS FAR OUT, CHANCE LEVEL POPS ARE THE WAY TO PLAY THINGS. STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS WELL FOR TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...EXPECTED WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE LAST 24 HOURS. THUS, LOTS OF VFR WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LIGHT SURFACE WIND FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT WILL AGAIN FEATURE VALLEY FOG, WHICH SHOULD AFFECT ONLY MPV AND SLK. RIVER FOG NEAR BTV SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT, NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG AT MSS. THE FOG WE DO GET SHOULD BE THICKEST BETWEEN 07Z- 12Z. AFTER ANY FOG LIFTS, TOMORROW WILL AGAIN FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z TUE-00Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG TUE NIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. 00Z SAT-00Z SUN: PERIODS OF MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...NASH AVIATION...NASH

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