Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281149 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 749 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY... PROVIDING DRY WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 722 AM EDT FRIDAY...PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING WILL ERODE IN PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE 50S WILL WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE VALLEYS AND MID 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BENIGN WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION, ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING 500MB HEIGHTS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL SEE 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 12C. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...EXCEPT 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST KINGDOM. LOOK FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN IN THE NORMAL SPOTS. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS WE RESIDE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE, CONTINUING THE WARMING TREND INTO SATURDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.SURFACE MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE CLOUDS RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF IT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BUT MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS DISTURBANCE, WEAKENING IT AT VARIOUS POINTS IN TIME AND MOSTLY KEEPING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THEREFORE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AND CONTINUED WARMING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW, SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ON SUNDAY, 850MB TEMPERATURES REACH 12C-14C. EVEN WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 410 AM EDT FRIDAY...A RETURN TO WARM SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE ENTER INTO THE FIRST WEEK IN SEPTEMBER...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS IN THE 80S. GFS MODEL HAS A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WITH RISING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A UPPER LOW/UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL TAKES THIS UPPER LOW SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA. THE ECMWF MODEL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DOES HINT AT SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON THURSDAY. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT)FOR THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING SOME AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING MORE FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...AS WELL AS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS... MAINLY AFTER 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 12Z SAT-18Z SAT...VFR. 18Z SAT-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON - 00Z WED...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

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