Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 191138 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 638 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak mid level trough passing to our north across Quebec today into tonight will bring the possibility of light rain or snow showers with the best prospect for light precipitation in the form of snow showers across the Northern Green Mountains and northern Adirondacks. We`ll see increased clouds for Sunday, but temperatures will remain in the upper 30s to lower 40s for valley highs. Dry and seasonably mild weather is expected Monday and Tuesday with high pressure in place. Another weak mid- level disturbance approaching from the west will bring chances for light mixed wintry precipitation Tuesday evening through Tuesday night. A more significant precipitation system is possible Friday into Saturday. At this time, it appears the system at the end of the week will bring windy, mild, and rainy conditions. Temperatures are generally expected to be above average this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 638 AM EST Sunday...Some clouds have developed over portions of the North Country. Temperatures this morning highly dependent on cloud cover, but generally ranging from mid 30s to mid 40s. Mid-level shortwave will near the international border this morning, continuing to increase clouds over northern portions of the forecast area. This shortwave will sink south this afternoon, spreading clouds and possibly producing some light scattered showery activity. Areas that have the best chance to see precipitation will be western slopes and higher terrain of the Adirondacks and Northern Greens as W to NW flow develops over the region. Limited deep layer moisture continues to reflected in model guidance. Best chance for showers will be late today into tonight. Combined of limited moisture and warm temperatures - todays highs in the 40s, lows in the upper teens to mid 20s by early Monday morning - expect generally 1 inch or less of snowfall for all areas below 2000 ft. In Northern Vermont, above 2000 ft, could see 1-2 inches. On Monday, high pressure moves in at the surface shortly followed by ridging aloft. This will result in clearing skies and dry conditions with cooler temperatures in northerly flow. Max temps expected to range from mid 20s to mid 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 AM EST Sunday...Very changeable weather anticipated during this time frame from ridge of high pres Monday night to weak system and associated precip Tues afternoon into Weds. Still looking at a seasonably cool night on Monday with 1030mb high pres and building ridge aloft...supporting clear skies and light winds through 06z Tuesday. Have noted thermal profiles warm aloft with progged 850mb temps approaching 0c by 12z Tuesday...associated with developing waa on southerly winds on backside of high pres. Thinking a wide range in temps with lows ranging from near 0F NEK to near 20F in the SlV...with coolest values occurring around midnight...then warming as wind shift to the south by sunset. Fast moving short wave energy in the westerly flow aloft along with weakening ribbon of mid level moisture will produce a narrow axis of rain/snow showers on Tues Afternoon/Night. QFP will be one and two tenths at best with some downslope shadowing likely here in the CPV associated with progged 850mb winds of 30 to 40 knots. Best chance of a couple inches of wet snow would be northern Greens above 2000 feet on Tuesday Night. Progged 850mb temps warm between 2-4c by Weds...supporting highs well into the 40s with a few 50s likely in the warmer valleys. Additional snow melt looks likely based on winds and temps Weds...supporting some rises on local streams and rivers. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 340 AM EST Sunday...The much above normal temp trends continues into the weekend with developing se conus mid/upper level ridge of high pres. Latest guidance shows weak disturbance in the northern jet stream winds aloft crosses our northern CWA on Thursday...which may suppress some of the warmer temps...because of clouds/precip. Have continued to mention mainly terrain focused chance pops on Thursday into Friday...with any qpf being light. Thermal profiles initially support a mix of rain/snow...eventually changing to mainly snow above 1500 overnight Thursday into modest low level cold air advection develops. This cold air advection results in progged 850 and 925mb thermal profiles falling below 0C by 12z Friday...supporting highs mainly 30s mountains to mid/upper 40s mountains. Still looking at building heights and developing southerly flow next weekend...while mid/upper level trof is digging across the northern Plains. Models have trended slightly slower with system for next weekend...and are in general agreement with main surface low tracking from the central Plains into the Great Lakes...placing us well established in the warm sector. Warm front feature may produce a light mix of precip on Saturday Morning...before main frontal band arrives Saturday Afternoon into Sunday. Strong south/southwest 850mb jet of 50 to 60 knots will result in some downslope shadowing...especially CPV...and quick movement of system will limit qpf. Still looking at widespread precip amounts between 0.25 and 0.75...with temps warming well into the 40s to mid 50s likely. These temps and associated rainfall will cause some rises on local waterways...but way too early to determine overall threat and potential impacts. && .AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
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Through 12Z Monday...VFR conditions expected to persist throughout the TAF period with some periodic very light shsn or flurries potentially affecting higher terrain. Have only mentioned discrete VCSH at KSLK/KMPV this afternoon/evening. Overall model performance poor with too much low level moisture this morning. Expect that trend to continue today and tonight as water vapor and IR satellite imagery indicate lack of deep layer moisture. Therefore, any precipitation amounts will be light and showery activity will be widely scattered. Winds generally south/southwesterly 6 to 12 knots and occasionally gusty at KSLK. Winds shift to west/northwesterly after 16Z today. Outlook 12Z Monday through Thursday... 12Z Monday through 18Z Tuesday...VFR/high pressure. 18Z Tuesday through 00Z Wednesday...MVFR/IFR in showers/light mixed precipitation with warm frontal passage. 00Z Wednesday onward...mainly VFR/high pressure.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos/KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber/Sisson AVIATION...JMG is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.