Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 141739 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 139 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... After warm and dry conditions through this evening, low pressure will track through the North Country tonight and early Friday bringing rain and modest river rises across central and southern Vermont and the Adirondacks. Another quick moving system will move through the Northeast late this weekend bringing another round of rain and high elevation snow. Then conditions remain unsettled heading into next week with near seasonal temperatures and periods of showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 139 PM EDT Thursday...It`s a glorious afternoon out there with ample sunshine and temps warming into the 50s with even some low 60s showing up in southern Vermont. Mid clouds are beginning to encroach upon the St. Lawrence Valley, and by sunset most locations should have broken to overcast skies. Overnight, low pressure will track out of the Great Lakes region and moving just south of the Adirondacks/south- central Greens. Although flow aloft is zonal, there will be fairly strong isothermal lift across the surface boundary allowing for efficient precipitation processes. As such, 0.3-0.75 inches of rain is expected to fall across the region with highest amounts across the Adirondacks/central Greens. These totals will allow for modest river rises, but no flooding is currently anticipated. The Mad River and Otter Creek are susceptible to these rises possibly to bank-full, but speed of this system will largely preclude acute flooding concerns. Rainfall will clear west to east Friday with only a few showers lingering over terrain by Friday afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 310 AM EDT Thursday...The steady precipitation will move out by Friday night but there may be some lingering areas of mist and drizzle into the night. Temperatures should gradually drop below freezing outside the broad valleys so any residual water will likely freeze, leading to the potential for some icy areas on roads. A moist airmass and a lack of wind should help keep any surface wet, though temperatures should only fall slightly below freezing as thick cloud cover should inhibit efficient radiational cooling. The cloud cover will stick around into Saturday but the day should be mostly dry as brief ridging builds in. The above normal temperatures will continue as highs will be in the 40s across the region, with parts of southern Vermont approaching 50. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 310 AM EDT Thursday...A deepening trough builds into the region for the beginning of the week, bringing colder air and an unsettled pattern. However, colder will be relative as temperatures only look to drop to around normal for the time of year. A surface low will pass to the north on Sunday, but its associated fronts will bring a couple rounds of precipitation. The precipitation should be elevation dependent rain and snow, with snow levels likely somewhere between 1500-2500 feet. The western upslope areas will see the most precipitation but even there liquid equivalent totals will probably only be up to around 0.2-0.3 inches. The west and southwest winds will likely cause downsloping in the Champlain Valley and it might not see much precipitation at all during this time. These winds will help advect some moisture off Lake Ontario into parts of northern New York so precipitation amounts there should be enhanced a little. Broad cyclonic flow will persist on Monday into Wednesday, bringing some on and off snow showers, particularly to western facing upslope areas. Despite temperatures rising above freezing in the valleys, steep lapse rates should cause the precipitation there to be mostly snow. However, it may take until Tuesday for winds to shift to northwesterly so downsloping could remain a factor in the Champlain Valley through Monday. Ridging will start to build in at the end of the week and temperatures will rise back above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Through 18Z Friday...VFR condition will persist through the remainder of the daylight hours with mid clouds of FEW-SKC trending to BKN-OVC by sunset. Overnight, a warm front lifting into the region will provide widespread rain along with lower ceilings to MVFR at all sites, by 05-07Z. Further lowering to close to or just below IFR is expected through the remainder of the night, before ceilings slowly lift from any IFR sites back to MVFR by 18Z. Vsby will be a tricky forecast, mainly 4-6SM in rain and 1-2SM briefly in snow at KSLK, but with abundant moisture and warm temperatures riding over a fresh snowpack, there remains the possibility if some MVFR/IFR BR/FG from around midnight through mid-morning Friday. There may be enough gradient wind though to inhibit this, so have left it out of the terminal forecasts for now and will allow the next shift to assess that potential. Winds will be light through midnight, then increase from the north/northeast to 6-12kts through the remainder of the period, though locally southeast KRUT through 12Z. In addition, a brief period of LLWS is likely at KRUT from 06-12Z as a low level jet brushes the region to the south. Outlook... Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Monday: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Boyd NEAR TERM...Boyd/Lahiff SHORT TERM...Myskowski LONG TERM...Myskowski AVIATION...Boyd

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