Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 141739
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
139 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
After warm and dry conditions through this evening, low pressure
will track through the North Country tonight and early Friday
bringing rain and modest river rises across central and southern
Vermont and the Adirondacks. Another quick moving system will move
through the Northeast late this weekend bringing another round of
rain and high elevation snow. Then conditions remain unsettled
heading into next week with near seasonal temperatures and periods
of showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 139 PM EDT Thursday...It`s a glorious afternoon out there
with ample sunshine and temps warming into the 50s with even
some low 60s showing up in southern Vermont. Mid clouds are
beginning to encroach upon the St. Lawrence Valley, and by
sunset most locations should have broken to overcast skies.
Overnight, low pressure will track out of the Great Lakes
region and moving just south of the Adirondacks/south- central
Greens. Although flow aloft is zonal, there will be fairly
strong isothermal lift across the surface boundary allowing for
efficient precipitation processes. As such, 0.3-0.75 inches of
rain is expected to fall across the region with highest amounts
across the Adirondacks/central Greens. These totals will allow
for modest river rises, but no flooding is currently
anticipated. The Mad River and Otter Creek are susceptible to
these rises possibly to bank-full, but speed of this system will
largely preclude acute flooding concerns. Rainfall will clear
west to east Friday with only a few showers lingering over
terrain by Friday afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 310 AM EDT Thursday...The steady precipitation will move out by
Friday night but there may be some lingering areas of mist and
drizzle into the night. Temperatures should gradually drop below
freezing outside the broad valleys so any residual water will likely
freeze, leading to the potential for some icy areas on roads. A
moist airmass and a lack of wind should help keep any surface wet,
though temperatures should only fall slightly below freezing as
thick cloud cover should inhibit efficient radiational cooling. The
cloud cover will stick around into Saturday but the day should be
mostly dry as brief ridging builds in. The above normal temperatures
will continue as highs will be in the 40s across the region, with
parts of southern Vermont approaching 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 AM EDT Thursday...A deepening trough builds into the region
for the beginning of the week, bringing colder air and an unsettled
pattern. However, colder will be relative as temperatures only look
to drop to around normal for the time of year. A surface low will
pass to the north on Sunday, but its associated fronts will
bring a couple rounds of precipitation. The precipitation
should be elevation dependent rain and snow, with snow levels
likely somewhere between 1500-2500 feet. The western upslope
areas will see the most precipitation but even there liquid
equivalent totals will probably only be up to around 0.2-0.3
inches. The west and southwest winds will likely cause
downsloping in the Champlain Valley and it might not see much
precipitation at all during this time. These winds will help
advect some moisture off Lake Ontario into parts of northern
New York so precipitation amounts there should be enhanced a
little. Broad cyclonic flow will persist on Monday into
Wednesday, bringing some on and off snow showers, particularly
to western facing upslope areas. Despite temperatures rising
above freezing in the valleys, steep lapse rates should cause
the precipitation there to be mostly snow. However, it may take
until Tuesday for winds to shift to northwesterly so downsloping
could remain a factor in the Champlain Valley through Monday.
Ridging will start to build in at the end of the week and
temperatures will rise back above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through 18Z Friday...VFR condition will persist through the
remainder of the daylight hours with mid clouds of FEW-SKC
trending to BKN-OVC by sunset. Overnight, a warm front lifting
into the region will provide widespread rain along with lower
ceilings to MVFR at all sites, by 05-07Z. Further lowering to
close to or just below IFR is expected through the remainder of
the night, before ceilings slowly lift from any IFR sites back
to MVFR by 18Z. Vsby will be a tricky forecast, mainly 4-6SM in
rain and 1-2SM briefly in snow at KSLK, but with abundant
moisture and warm temperatures riding over a fresh snowpack,
there remains the possibility if some MVFR/IFR BR/FG from around
midnight through mid-morning Friday. There may be enough
gradient wind though to inhibit this, so have left it out of the
terminal forecasts for now and will allow the next shift to
assess that potential. Winds will be light through midnight,
then increase from the north/northeast to 6-12kts through the
remainder of the period, though locally southeast KRUT through
12Z. In addition, a brief period of LLWS is likely at KRUT from
06-12Z as a low level jet brushes the region to the south.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Boyd