Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 150859 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 459 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Remnant moisture from Irma will continue to slowly move eastward today across Southern New England, showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon from the spine of the Greens eastward. Beginning Saturday, a large area of high pressure will build over the region, resulting in an extended stretch of warm and dry weather into the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Friday...Morning fog will lift by about 9 am. Still some lingering moisture in the very stagnant flow/pattern in place across New England. Will have a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon from the spine of the Greens eastward. CAPE values will edge to about 1000 this afternoon south and east, though lacking any significant forcing or upper level dynamics. With remnant low to our Southeast, our region will actually have light easterly flow and storms will be slow moving, drifting west to east. Other parts of our forecast area to the North and West will have partly to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will once again be warm today, upper 70s to around 80. Any convection that forms this afternoon will die down quickly following sunset and skies will clear. Will see some fog formation once again, especially in the favored spots. Temperatures remain mild overnight, dropping into the 50s to around 60. Saturday will feature more quiet weather and warmer than normal temperatures. Surface and upper level ridging over the North country should result in mainly sunny skies with light winds. Will feel like a nice summer day. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 500 AM EDT Friday...Dry conditions expected during the short term as high pressure remains in control. Warming temperatures in the ridging aloft with light wind flow will result in above normal temperatures with daytime maxes ranging from 70s to low 80s and overnight mins generally in the 50s to low 60s. Clouds are expected to increase starting early Monday as moisture from Jose approaches the region. Models show Jose off the coast of the Outerbanks Monday night with surface ridging weakening over the Northeast.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 500 AM EDT Friday...00Z Model runs still differ on details of Jose, but seem to be converging on a track inside the 70-40 benchmark. Exact track will determine chance of precipitation from rain bands. Southeastern VT could see rain from Jose as early as Tuesday morning. GFS a little more progressive with regard to northerly extent of track and speed of Jose. ECMWF keeps Jose further south, tracking right over the benchmark by late Wednesday. Both GFS and ECMWF have Jose tracking further east, ending precip over the North Country Wednesday night with high pressure building in behind it.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...Varying amounts of fog across our terminals overnight. BTV/PBG/RUT are all VFR and should remain that way. MPV/SLK/MSS are all IFR or even some LIFR. Fog will dissipate by 14z, and most of the region will go back to VFR. Could see a few showers across eastern and southern Vermont by 18z. Look for another night with fog formation for tonight. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Neiles

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