Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 121445 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1045 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO WORK OVER THE REGION. A SLOWING MOVING MEANDERING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING STEADY RAINFALL TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE GOING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1045 AM EDT SATURDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TODAY AND ONLY NEEDED TO MATCH T/TD OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AS OF 10 AM. STILL LOOKING AT SUNNY/PTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 56 TO 64 ACROSS THE AREA. BASED OFF INCOMING PROGS...ALSO REINTRODUCED CHC THUNDER BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING WHICH COULD PROVE PROBLEMATIC TO SOME OF OUR FAR NORTHERN WATERSHEDS. MORE DETAILS ON THIS FORTHCOMING THIS AFTERNOON. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD START TO THE DAY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR MAINLY CLR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THUS RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE SFC. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 20S THRU MID 30S BUT COULD DROP FURTHER BFR 12Z THIS MORNING. OVERALL CWA WILL SEE NICE 24-HR STRETCH OF WX WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLDS OVER AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. GOING INTO TNGT...INCREASING CLDS FROM SE ONTARIO AREA TO FILTER INTO N NY AND EXPANDING EAST AND SOUTH AS NIGHTTIME HRS PROGRESS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT THAT WILL END UP SETTING UP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER BY SUNDAY MORNING. STAYING CLOSE TO MDL GUIDANCE FOR BRINGING IN LIGHT -RW INTO N NY DURING THIS TIME WITH LITTLE QPF. FOR THE OVERNGT LOWS...WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE WARM FRONT/ CLDS SET UP WITH AREAS SOUTH OF IT REMAINING IN WARM SECTOR...THUS LITTLE DROP IN OVERNGT LOWS WHICH WILL BE IN THE 40S. HAVE RE-ISSUED FLOOD TO CONTINUE PRODUCT TIMING. MDL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS COPIOUS QPF COMBINED WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS TO BRING RIVER/STREAM RISING FROM RAIN/MELTING SNOW COMBO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 444 AM EDT SATURDAY...GOING INTO SUNDAY...WARM FRONT A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN IN YESTERDAY/S MDL RUNS BRINGING AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF -RW. HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS FOR ENTIRE CWA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE FRONT WILL SIT BFR LIFTING INTO QUEBEC BY 00Z-06Z MONDAY. QPF WITH RAINFALL RANGING FROM 0.10-0.30" BFR ENDING...HIGHER TOTALS NORTH. AS FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...ENTIRE CWA WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR FOR ABV NORMAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL ALSO PUT AREA OVERNGT IN A RISING TEMPS SITUATION...SO LOWS BE EARLY ON. 850/925 TEMPS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM +12C TO +16C...SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80F...DESPITE APPROACH OF CD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY BRINGING INCR CLDS AND LIGHT -RW TO PORTIONS OF THE N NY AREA..ESPECIALLY IN ST LAW VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL MODERATE MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING. MAIN ISSUE REMAINS POTENTIAL PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW- MOVING/MOISTURE LADEN FRONTAL BNDRY. GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN 00Z GFS AND ECMWF...WITH THE STRONG FRONT SHIFTING EWD INTO NRN NY DURING MONDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS VT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS TUESDAY. PW PLUME WITH VALUES AROUND 1.2" TO 1.3" ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT...WITH DEEP-LAYER S-SW FLOW ORIENTED MAINLY PARALLEL TO INTENSE AND SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL ZONE. ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY...AND HAVE INDICATED 80-90 POPS. MAY SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL...WITH GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING NARROW CAPE PROFILES THAT MAY SUPPORT EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TSTM. FOLLOWING THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES MONDAY...BASIN-AVERAGE QPF OF 1-1.5" MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. SHARP RIVER RISES ARE ANTICIPATED AS A RESULT. GFS ENSEMBLE BASED RIVER FORECASTS FROM THE NERFC INDICATE MANY RIVER STAGES INTO THE MODERATE FLOOD CATEGORY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THUS...METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGIC PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ONGOING FLOOD WATCH FOR THE PERIOD. MODERATE S-SW WINDS AND DEVELOPING OVERCAST MONDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S IN NRN NY WITH EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE...TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS VT. TEMPS CRASH INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA. MAY SEE PCPN MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST-EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 1-1.5 KFT. LARGE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING ACROSS THE NERN CONUS AND SERN CANADA WILL BRING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN BELOW AVERAGE WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS STARTING -12C TO -14C AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH FULL SUN...ANTICIPATE HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND UPR 30S TO NEAR 40F ELSEWHERE. GRADUAL AIR MASS MODIFICATION THEREAFTER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY...AND MID-UPR 50S FOR FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN VCNTY...ANTICIPATE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WED-FRI. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR WITH PREVAILING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH 04Z TONIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION IS LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG AT KRUT AND PARTS OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY THRU 13-14Z THIS AM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SW-W BY 14Z...AND EVENTUALLY W-NW 5-10 KTS THIS AFTN. PASSING MID-UPR LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AT TIMES. WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS EVENING AND LIFTS NEWD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CEILINGS CLOSER TO OVC050 AFTER 05-06Z SUNDAY. INTRODUCED LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT FOR ALL SITES BUT KRUT BETWEEN 05-08Z. OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT BRINGS PERIODS OF RAIN AND INTERVALS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY TO THE REGION THRU THE DAY SUNDAY. FRONT LIFTS NWD WITH VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRENGTHENING P-GRADIENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOUTH WINDS 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS 30 KTS AT TIMES IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AS SLOW-MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN FRONTAL SYSTEM SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE AREA. MAY SEE PCPN END AS BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW AND IFR VSBY AT SLK/MPV DURING TUESDAY NIGHT. AVIATION WX CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. && .HYDROLOGY... A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT COVENTRY VERMONT FOR MINOR FLOODING TODAY. SEE SHORT AND LONG TERM DISCUSSIONS REGARDING FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JN NEAR TERM...JMG/JN SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV

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