Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 261153 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 653 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 652 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM PASSES WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AT LEAST TWENTY DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AS WE CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ARCTIC AIR. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE ADIRONDACKS AS A WEAK TROF CROSSES THE AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 355 AM EST THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND ARCTIC AIR PROVIDING US WITH MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THOUGH COLD...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BOTH FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE. EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND STRENGTH OF WINDS PRESENT LOTS OF MODEL VARIATIONS FOR MIN TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EST THURSDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS LATER. IT WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS TO CONTEND WITH. DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY...RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING MILDER TEMPS AND ALSO INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME CLOUDY AND FOR SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING DURING THE DAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS THEN QUICKLY RETURNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE BY WEDNESDAY. ITS SHAPING UP AS A POTENTIALLY MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION/OVERRUNNING EVENT...AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH WARMING MAY OCCUR FOR SNOW TO CHANGE TO OTHER PRECIPITATION TYPES. FOR NOW HOWEVER...HAVE JUST MENTIONED SNOW. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE AREA AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE RACING NORTHEAST IN FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET. SOME LOWER VFR CEILINGS MAY AFFECT RUT/SLK THIS EVENING WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 12Z FRIDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS

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