Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 200825 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 325 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE AFFECTS OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH A FORECAST WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MID 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY. SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA. IFR CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK OVERNIGHT THEN IMPROVING AFTER 10Z. MVFR TRENDING VFR AT MPV OVERNIGHT. AT REST OF SITES...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. SOME MID CLOUDS RETURN TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. 12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO

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