Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 141901 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 301 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure will keep the North Country dry this afternoon and through the evening. Southwest flow aloft will spread clouds into the region bringing deeper moisture to the North Country during the overnight hours. As a low pressure system digs to our north we`ll see enhanced shower activity with scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours Tuesday. The cold front moves through late Tuesday into Wednesday morning ushering in much cooler temperatures for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Our next chance of showers returns towards the end of the week with as another system will bring widespread rain to the North Country heading into the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 253 PM EDT Monday...This afternoon should finish just at quietly as it starting. The high pressure continues to dominate the North Country and dry air in the mid levels is evident on the WV satellite and from the Maniwaki and Albany 12z soundings this morning. We should end up peaking in the low to mid 80s this afternoon under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Overnight I stayed away from the idea of any fog forming as we are another day removed from the moisture source and the boundary layer winds shouldn`t decouple as much as light night. BufKit soundings at both Montpelier and Saranac show boundary layer winds of 10-15kts roughly 200 feet off the deck which should preclude much in the way of fog development. However as we cool under the high pressure some lower stratus clouds may develop which again should aid in preventing fog development. Lows overnight will fall into the mid 50s to low 60s in the valleys. The forecast challenge in the near term is what happens on Tuesday. Energy from a vort will lift through the Adirondacks during the overnight hours early Tuesday morning and with orographic lift should be enough to cause some showers to move up through the Adirondacks and into the Northeast Kingdom. During the morning hours, warm air advection and diurnal heating should warm the North Country to the low 80s. Those temps combined with dewpoints increasing to the upper 50s to low 60s should mean there will be plenty of instability to initiate some storms. NCAR ensembles show quite a bit of scattered 40dbz composite reflectivity values but no distinct locations. The best downdraft CAPE is well to our south with the best signal over the Mohawk valley and along the MA/VT border. We will be right in the nose of the right rear quadrant of a robust 250mb jet so there will be ample divergence aloft for any of the storms that do develop. As such, I`ve followed the lead of SPC`s marginal risk and included the mention of gusty winds for the forecast area during the afternoon hours Tuesday. I dont anticipate any widespread severe activity but rather a storm or two that could become storm and produce strong winds. The front then clears through the North Country overnight and we see a return of northwest flow aloft and cold air advection although we shouldn`t cool much more than Monday night as our lows will be in the mid to upper 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... As of 309 AM EDT Monday...Upper trough moves into the Canadian Maritimes and this will put our area in northwest flow aloft. Any precipitation should come to an end Tuesday night with drier air moving in for Wednesday. Looking at a cold air advection pattern too and with cooler 925/850 millibar temperatures...look for highs only in the 70s on Wednesday with somewhat gusty northwest winds. Quiet weather returns on Wednesday as high pressure returns. With the southerly flow Tuesday, temps will warm to the upper 70s to low 80s and then as the upper level trough clears, light cold air advection will begin. Expect lows overnight will fall into the mid 50s with low to mid 70s expected Wednesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 309 AM EDT Monday...Medium and Long range guidance is all over the place for late week and next weekend, thus confidence is low for the later periods. General agreement of Surface High across area Wed ngt as cold front is south of fa. Then the differences begin with GFS/Canadian and WPC agreeing on more amplitude ridge to delay any precipitation til Thu ngt whereas ECMWF quickly dampens flow for pcpn arriving by midday Thu. Will go with majority here. The exit strategy of pcpn is in question as all the models mentioned above have totally different solutions. Canadian/GFS keeps shower threat on Sat but for total different reasons. In fact, by 00z Sun, ECMWF and Canadian are more in line with differences in strength of shortwave trof moving through Sat ngt them some rising heights and minor ridging for Sunday. Again, greatest confidence of shra threat Thu Ngt and part of Fri. Thereafter, minimal CHC pops through the period. Seasonable temps although a tad on the chilly side Thu morning with some 30s in coldest valleys possible. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 12Z Tuesday...VFR condtions generally expected to prevail through the TAF period with a few breaks of MVFR as low stratus may develop just before sunrise in the mountain taf sites. Winds will generally be southerly and should remain less than 10kts. Light showers are anticipated at SLK and MPV during the overnight hours and then becoming more robust during the the afternoon hours. These thunderstorms will be scattered in nature so for the moment I`ve opted to leave mention out because of confidence in a storm hitting any individual TAF location. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Deal SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...Deal

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