Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBTV 152001
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
301 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017
A ridge of high pressure will build east from the Great Lakes
overnight and will remain over the north country through Tuesday
morning. A mixed precipitation event is expected from late
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, followed by warmer and
drier weather from Thursday through the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 301 PM EST Sunday...A ridge of high pressure will build
east from the Great Lakes overnight and will remain over the
north country through Monday. Expecting lows tonight to be
mainly in the single digits above zero to the teens across the
region, under mostly clear skies. Temperatures will climb into
the 30s under sunny skies on Monday.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 205 PM EST Sunday...Generally quiet conditions are
expected for Monday night through the morning on Tuesday as
surface high pressure persists over the North Country. For
Monday night, weak shortwave energy passing north of the area
combined with some lingering low level moisture may spark a few
snow showers across our northern tier zones, but most of the
area should remain dry under partly cloudy skies. Tuesday begins
a warming trend that we`ll see through the week with highs
pushing well into the 30`s area-wide with southerly flow
increasing ahead of our next system.
Surface low pressure lifts northward through the Great Lakes
region Tuesday and precipitation will spread across our forecast
area from Southwest to Northeast during the late afternoon and
evening. Strong vorticity advection and deep moisture, therefore
expect precipitation to be widespread. Early Wednesday morning
a secondary low will form off the New England coast and bulk of
the energy shifts to this low center and wraps colder air back
into the system. Have continued with previous forecaster`s
thinking that will see more of a sleet and snow mix rather than
freezing rain...only exception being the Saint Lawrence valley
where some low level Northeasterly flow will get trapped. From
Tuesday evening through the overnight feel that we`ll see a mix
of sleet and snow with some rain at the onset Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Best chance for sleet and snow will be across
Eastern Vermont and the Eastern Dacks. We`ll probably see more
rain in the Champlain and Saint Lawrence valleys, perhaps
freezing rain in the Saint Lawrence valley as I previously
mentioned. Warm air advection continues Wednesday with original
low lifting north of the region and precipitation should change
to all rain during this timeframe. As secondary low strengthens
later in the day Wednesday and overnight colder air aloft will
wrap into the system and precipitation should change over to
Still several days away so will iron out the details as we get
closer and have better higher resolution data to look at. At
this stage, looks like Wednesday morning will have a messy
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 205 PM EST Sunday...Wednesday night and Thursday will
have lingering Northwesterly flow wrap around moisture and
upslope snow showers in the typical spots, probably rain showers
in the warmer bigger valleys. A large ridge of surface high
pressure as well as an upper level ridge will build over the
region from Thursday through the weekend and dry mild weather is
.AVIATION /20Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 18Z Monday...A ridge of high pressure will build east
from the Great Lakes this afternoon and will remain over the
north country through Monday. Mainly VFR conditions expected
through the period.
18z Monday onward...Primarily VFR with surface high pressure
through 18Z Tuesday. Next large-scale precipitation system
tracks to our west Late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.
Trending MVFR with intervals of IFR in widespread precipitation,
possibly as early as late Tuesday, but more likely Tuesday
night or Wednesday.
Thursday and Friday...mainly becoming VFR as a ridge of high
pressure builds into the region.