Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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574 FXUS61 KBTV 292032 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 432 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening as an upper level shortwave tracks through the North Country. Expect additional showers to be possible again on Memorial Day with slightly cooler high temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 344 PM EDT Sunday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening as energy from an associated mid level shortwave that is crossing through the North Country. The convection has been focused in northern New York west of Lake Champlain as most of Vermont has been fighting the marine airmass associated with the back door cold front from this morning. High precipitable water values and slow moving storms will contribute to localized heavy rainfall. Showers have already produced enough rainfall based on MRMS precip and 1 hour totals to warrant the issuance of a flash flood warning for central Franklin and southern Clinton county in New York. The areal coverage of the showers should begin to decline through the evening as we lose the diurnal heating and instability. For Memorial Day, I anticipate another day of scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms. It won`t be quite as warm as today so instability will be limited however through will be enough unstable air to see a few isolated thunderstorms. Temps overnight will drop into the mid 60s for the Champlain valley and west and east of the Greens expect lows to drop to the upper 50s under the marine air. Expected max temps tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s as the upper level trough finally starts to push through the North Country. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 432 PM EDT Sunday...Have kept in slight to low chance pops early Monday evening for showers, but expecting conditions to become dry later Monday night. High pressure to build into the region on Tuesday. An upper ridge over the Great Lakes will build slowly east Tuesday and Tuesday night, bringing dry weather and cooler temperatures to the north country. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 432 PM EDT Sunday...A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will build east from the Great Lakes, with fair and dry weather expected Wednesday and Thursday. A weakening cold front will move east from the Great Lakes Thursday night and Friday and will bring a chance of showers to the north country. ECMWF and GFS models showing some difference for Saturday and Sunday, so have stuck with super-blend pops and will have a chance for showers in the forecast for next weekend. && .AVIATION /20Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/... Through 18z Monday...showers and thunderstorms are moving through the Adirondacks up to the Canadian border. These cells should have impact on slk/pbg/btv over the next few hours with thunderstorms temporarily on station from 18z-21z. Scattered showers could impact all stations except mss through 00z and then again overnight from 06-12z. Impacts would be temporary mvfr conditions with passing showers. Overall conditions should remain vfr with mpv the one exception seeing mvfr ceilings overnight until the early morning hours. Winds will be southerly for most of the period 05-15 knots. Outlook 18z Monday through Thursday... Mainly VFR with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Monday early evening time frame. Best chance for a dry day will be Wednesday. && .CLIMATE... Record maximum temperatures for today (May 29) are as follows: 5/29 BTV - Burlington 89 in 1978 MPV - Montpelier 87 in 1978 MSS - Massena 90 in 1978 St Johnsbury 92 in 1978 Mt Mansfield 77 in 1978 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal/Neiles NEAR TERM...Deal SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...Neiles/MV CLIMATE...BTV

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