Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
284 FXUS61 KBTV 182319 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 719 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET AND COOL.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 707 PM EDT MONDAY...TWO DICHOTOMOUS AIR MASSES EXIST THIS EVENING WITH A MORE SPRINGLIKE MARINE-INFLUENCED AIR MASS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST ACROSS NEW YORK HAVE AN AIR MASS MORE SUITABLE FOR MID-SUMMER. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS 65-70 DEGREES IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS HAVE LED TO BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR PRESENT...ORGANIZATION IS NOT EXPECTED AND STORMS WILL BE COLD- POOL DRIVEN. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN (PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.75" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 10K FEET)...BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH...AND SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME PROPAGATION INTO VERMONT IS POSSIBLE. AS INITIAL CONVECTION BEGINS TO DECAY HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUT ACROSS WESTERN NY AND PA THIS EVENING WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION...LIKELY BEING SOMEWHAT MAINTAINED SYNOPTICALLY BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE AREA OVERNIGHT THOUGH IT SHOULD BE LARGELY REDUCED TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING ELEVATED THUNDER. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS FROM 55-65F.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 348 PM EDT MONDAY...ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. AS SURFACE HEATS UP AND SOME CAPE DEVELOPS WILL SEE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FROM ABOUT THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. SPC HAS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN MARGINAL FOR TOMORROW. WITH HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL JET...MAY SEE SOME ORGANIZED STORMS CAUSE DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHILE MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT OUR REGION WILL BE IN COLDER AIR MASS. MAX TEMPS ON WED WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. WILL HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION TO FROST POSSIBILITIES ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...A PERUSAL OF THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. THUS BY AND LARGE A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL BE OFFERED. THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL FEATURE SUBSTANTIAL EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BLOCKING WHICH WILL TEND TO BE REINFORCED BY INFUSED ENERGY FROM ONCE WEST PAC SUPER TYPHOON NOUL. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A SUPPRESSED POLAR JET AND BROAD-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING TO REMAIN INTACT TO ITS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH SEASONABLY COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE BEST SHOT FOR A FEW/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A FAIRLY DISTINCT SURFACE TROUGH, OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MEAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OF SOME CONCERN WILL BE CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THUS PATCHY FROST WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS OUTSIDE THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WHEN CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD. BY SUNDAY ONWARD UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD BEGIN TO ABATE WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. SOME MODEL DISPARITY BY NEXT MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY) WITH THIS MORNING`S OPERATIONAL RUNS NOW SUGGESTING THAT RESIDUAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS MAY SUPPRESS INITIAL RETURN OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE ACCOMPANYING ENSEMBLE MEANS. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR, WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST INTO THIS EVENING, AND ACROSS MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER TO OCCUR AT KSLK/KPBG/KBTV 22-03Z, THEN MAINLY AREAS OF SHOWERS FROM 03-12Z AT MOST TERMINALS WITH PATCHY BR AND MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT, MVFR BEING MOST LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY THROUGH 00Z (SOUTHEAST AT KPBG/KRUT) BEFORE ABATING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER, MAINLY KPBG/KBTV EASTWARD. BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. 00Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. && .MARINE... AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH WINDS ARE NEAR LAKE WIND ADVISORY NOW AT 10-25 KNOTS. SOUTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY, UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES AROUND MID DAY TUESDAY AND WIND SHIFTS TO WEST. WINDS COULD INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVEL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT 15-25 KNOTS. WAVES OF 1-3 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES/MUCCILLI NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG MARINE...MV

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.