Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 192335 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 735 PM EDT Tue Jul 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Ridge of surface high pressure will remain over the North Country through Thursday, providing the region with sunny and dry weather. Temperatures will warm above seasonal normals again towards the end of the week. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 735 PM EDT Tuesday...Going forecast in good shape with areal coverage of shallow cumulus clouds decreasing in response to drier air moving in and atmosphere becoming more stable. Made some tweaks to sky cover to match current conditions...otherwise remainder of forecast in good shape with no other changes needed. Ridge of surface high pressure builds into the region tonight and northwest flow aloft will continue. Skies should become clear following sunset and winds will be light, this will set up a decent radiational cooling night for the north country. Minimum temperatures will range from the mid 40`s to mid 50`s. Despite dry air in place, believe that good radiational cooling conditions will also bring fog formation in the typically fog prone spots. Any fog that forms will lift following sunrise, and another sunny and dry day is expected for Wednesday. Maximum temperatures will be near to seasonal normals. Will once again see some afternoon clouds but do not expect any precipitation. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 333 PM EDT Tuesday...Low level flow shifts south/southwest as the surface ridge moves offshore. Warmer air will filter in with 925mb temperatures reaching 21C-24C. PWATs will also be increasing to around 1-1.25 inches on Thursday. Aloft NW flow will continue through at least Thursday, with late day elevated mixed layer possible. This could result in a few showers, but have kept only a slight chance as it will be late in the day and marginal at best. Wednesday night min temperatures will generally range from 50 to 60 degrees, with Thursday`s max temperatures reaching the 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 333 PM EDT Tuesday...Thursday night will see a 500mb trough approaching from eastern Ontario, bringing showers and thunderstorms through Friday, as models show multiple vortices moving into the region. Greatest chance for showers and especially thunderstorms exist Friday as instability develops over the North Country early in the day. Warm low level temperatures at 925mb remain between 20C-22C on Friday. Main 500mb trough digs across the North Country on Friday with a 250mb jet nosing into southeastern Ontario late in the day. This should help convection develop. Expect the 500mb trough to exit east Friday night with a additional vorticity moving through and keeping chance for showers and thunderstorms through early Saturday. Ridging aloft and at the surface will result in mostly dry conditions Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning before another low affects the area. At this point the models diverge in mostly zonal flow, meaning that timing and track of each feature will be difficult to pin down for the weekend into next week. Temperatures will be above normal throughout the period. && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Through 00z Thursday...IFR possible KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z in fog, otherwise VFR. Pressure gradient overall favors northwest surface winds, however other surface effects will take over at some TAF sites. Most areas calm or light/variable overnight, however KRUT will see its usual southeast drainage wind around 5 kts. During the day Wednesday expect some lake breeze interaction around Lake Champlain, with KPBG turning easterly and westerly component at KBTV. Outlook 00z Thursday through Sunday... 18z Wednesday - Thu: VFR under high pressure. Overnight IFR fog possible, especially at KSLK and KMPV. 00Z Friday-12z Saturday...VFR, with scattered MVFR in showers and thunderstorms. 12z Saturday-00z Monday...VFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Evenson/Neiles SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Hanson

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