Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 282334 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 634 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet weather this evening will give way to increasing clouds and periods of light precipitation by Tuesday, and again by later Wednesday into Wednesday night. Some light mixed precipitation will be possible for a few hours Tuesday morning, especially across eastern Vermont where a light glaze of ice will be possible on area roads. Temperatures will trend seasonably mild by later tomorrow into Wednesday before trending cooler with scattered rain and snow shower activity to round out the late week time frame. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 613 PM EST Monday...No significant changes for 630 pm update. Have adjusted forecast to reflect current observations and satellite trends. Previous discussion follows. By tonight well advertised warm occlusion pushes bodily north and east toward the region with steadier light precipitation arriving in earnest across the western half of the forecast area by sunrise and across the remainder of the area by mid-morning. With mainly clear skies through the first half of the night feel many areas will radiate quite well so continued idea of minimum temperatures in the lower to mid 20s northeast, mid 20s to around 30 in western VT/Dacks, and in the lower 30s SLV. As precipitation arrives, a 1-3 hour potential of mixed p-type concerns will exist across northern NY, and a tad longer across eastern VT where progs still show some minor icing issues will be possible. Accordingly a Freezing Rain Advisory will be issued for this area during the 6 am to noon time frame. As boundary layer continues to slowly warm, any mixed precipitation should transition to light rain in all areas by early afternoon. As front lifts north and east through the area, steadier light rain will begin to taper off across our western counties by mid to late afternoon leaving just some scattered light shower activity here and there. Temperatures again tricky depending on pbl mixing and eventual placement of front, though mid to upper 30s across eastern VT, lower to mid 40s Champlain Valley, Dacks, northern SLV, and lower 40s Southern SLV still appear reasonable at this time. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 205 PM EST Monday...By Tuesday evening the occluded low will push the precip out of the North Country as dry air works in behind the warm front. Temps by Tuesday late will be warm enough to support all rain with max layer temps pushing 4C- 5C in the 925-700mb layer. I agree with the previous forecaster there there will likely be periods of drizzle mixed in late Tuesday night with the saturated RH layer becoming rather shallow but didn`t have the confidence on timing because 12z guidance is showing the precip lagging behind 2-3 hours slower than the 00z suite so given the slight delay I just went with all light rain showers. By midnight Tuesday conditions should be dry yet with the strong warm air advection and cloudy skies expect temps to stay warmer than normal only falling to the upper 30s to lower 40s. The second wave of precip lifts towards the north as a secondary low pressure system begins to develop over the mid Atlantic region and gradually moves towards New England. With above normal mild temps expect all rain with the second precip event as well. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 235 PM EST Monday...Unsettled weather will be the theme of the extended forecast as low pressure will persist until the weekend. Wednesday night expect the rain to still be falling however we may see a transition to heavy wet snow at elevations above 2500ft as temps slowly begin to cool overnight. Total accumulations across the North Country are expected to be near 0.50" for both events for Northern New York and range from 0.75"-1.5" for the combined events across Vermont with the higher rainfall totals across the southern locations. The main shift in the guidance was to bring the bulk of the heaviest precip for the Wednesday system further south over the Catskills with slightly smaller precip totals over the Greens and the rest of southern Vermont. The combination of both events, and the warmer temperatures will mean that much of the snowpack in the higher elevations will melt and runoff into the rivers. Modest 2-3 foot rises in the rivers are expected with all of the water expected to remain in the banks and no flooding expected. For the remainder of the week and into the weekend, the upper level low will slowly push towards the Northeast. This results in seasonable temperatures with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s. Copious amounts of low/mid level moisture with marginal forcing will lead to several periods of off and on orographic rain/snow showers under west/northwest synoptic flow each day. && .AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
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Through 00Z Wednesday...Changeable aviation conditions expected over the next 12 to 24 hours with all sites having vfr through 10z Tuesday. Rain mixed with sleet and freezing rain at mpv/slk develops between 10z-14z Tuesday...with any mix quickly changing to a cold rain by 15z at mpv/slk...with minimum icing expected. Vis will range btwn 4-6 sm in band of rain with elements of heavier showers possible...and cigs will lower to mvfr...especially at mpv/pbg/slk/mss. Downslope southeast winds should limit mvfr cigs at btv/rut through most of the day. Localized gusty winds to 25 knots at rutland is forecasted btween 14-21z tuesday...with areas of low level wind shear and turbulence possible at other sites. Clouds continue to lower with some potential ifr toward tuesday evening at mpv/slk. Outlook 00Z Wednesday through Saturday... Expecting a mix of conditions Tuesday Night into Weds with MVFR cigs at rut/btv with some ifr possible as low level moisture increases at slk/mpv/pbg/mss...with areas of drizzle and br in the mountains taf sites. Plenty of clouds with mvfr conditions prevail thru weds morning...before more rain showers arrive weds aftn into thurs with periods of ifr cigs/vis possible. Unsettled weather with showers will continue for Thursday....with some mountains snow showers possible Thursday night into the weekend...especially mpv/slk. Mainly mvfr cigs expected with some brief periods of ifr possible in any snow shower activity.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Freezing Rain Advisory from 6 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for VTZ003-004-006>008-010. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/JMG/Neiles SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...Taber

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