Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBTV 192335
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
735 PM EDT Tue Jul 19 2016
Ridge of surface high pressure will remain over the North Country
through Thursday, providing the region with sunny and dry weather.
Temperatures will warm above seasonal normals again towards the
end of the week. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 735 PM EDT Tuesday...Going forecast in good shape with
areal coverage of shallow cumulus clouds decreasing in response to
drier air moving in and atmosphere becoming more stable. Made some
tweaks to sky cover to match current conditions...otherwise
remainder of forecast in good shape with no other changes needed.
Ridge of surface high pressure builds into the region tonight and
northwest flow aloft will continue. Skies should become clear
following sunset and winds will be light, this will set up a
decent radiational cooling night for the north country. Minimum
temperatures will range from the mid 40`s to mid 50`s. Despite dry
air in place, believe that good radiational cooling conditions
will also bring fog formation in the typically fog prone spots.
Any fog that forms will lift following sunrise, and another sunny
and dry day is expected for Wednesday. Maximum temperatures will
be near to seasonal normals. Will once again see some afternoon
clouds but do not expect any precipitation.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 333 PM EDT Tuesday...Low level flow shifts south/southwest
as the surface ridge moves offshore. Warmer air will filter in
with 925mb temperatures reaching 21C-24C. PWATs will also be
increasing to around 1-1.25 inches on Thursday. Aloft NW flow will
continue through at least Thursday, with late day elevated mixed
layer possible. This could result in a few showers, but have kept
only a slight chance as it will be late in the day and marginal at
Wednesday night min temperatures will generally range from 50 to
60 degrees, with Thursday`s max temperatures reaching the 80s.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 333 PM EDT Tuesday...Thursday night will see a 500mb trough
approaching from eastern Ontario, bringing showers and
thunderstorms through Friday, as models show multiple vortices
moving into the region. Greatest chance for showers and especially
thunderstorms exist Friday as instability develops over the North
Country early in the day. Warm low level temperatures at 925mb
remain between 20C-22C on Friday. Main 500mb trough digs across
the North Country on Friday with a 250mb jet nosing into
southeastern Ontario late in the day. This should help convection
Expect the 500mb trough to exit east Friday night with a
additional vorticity moving through and keeping chance for showers
and thunderstorms through early Saturday. Ridging aloft and at the
surface will result in mostly dry conditions Saturday afternoon
through Sunday morning before another low affects the area. At
this point the models diverge in mostly zonal flow, meaning that
timing and track of each feature will be difficult to pin down for
the weekend into next week.
Temperatures will be above normal throughout the period.
.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Thursday...IFR possible KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z in fog, otherwise VFR.
Pressure gradient overall favors northwest surface winds, however
other surface effects will take over at some TAF sites. Most areas
calm or light/variable overnight, however KRUT will see its usual
southeast drainage wind around 5 kts. During the day Wednesday
expect some lake breeze interaction around Lake Champlain, with
KPBG turning easterly and westerly component at KBTV.
Outlook 00z Thursday through Sunday...
18z Wednesday - Thu: VFR under high pressure. Overnight IFR fog
possible, especially at KSLK and KMPV.
00Z Friday-12z Saturday...VFR, with scattered MVFR in showers and
12z Saturday-00z Monday...VFR.