Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 120516 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 116 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance over the eastern Great Lakes will slide south of our region tonight. This feature will bring cloudy skies through the first half of the night, with a chance of light rain across the northern Adirondacks into central and south-central Vermont. Rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch expected. Skies will clear out during the pre-dawn hours Thursday, with scattered frost away from Lake Champlain and locally dense fog in the deeper valley locations. Will see mostly clear and dry conditions for Thursday and Friday, with a warming trend expected Friday and through the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
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As of 114 AM EDT Thursday...Updated to remove Saint Lawrence Valley from frost advisory...as combination of winds and clouds will keep temps in the mid to upper 30s. Rest of fcst in good shape. Prior discussion... Eventually, will see subsidence and dry north winds result in clearing skies from WNW-ESE after 06Z or so, and period of good radiational cooling late with frost development for far nrn NY and portions of central VT. Have issued a frost advisory 06-12Z Thursday for these areas, where lows will reach the low-mid 30s, and locally into the upr 20s in the nrn Adirondacks. May also see some local fog development in the valleys east of the Green Mtns and within the nrn Adirondack region 07-12Z. Lows closer to Lake Champlain will be near 40F. Very quiet conditions Thursday and Thursday night with strong high pressure sliding from srn Quebec into Maine. Will see mostly sunny conditions Thursday with light winds, and highs in the lower 60s. A light S-SE return flow develops Thursday night, but some deeper valley spots east of the Greens may again see scattered frost development later Thursday night with lows generally in the 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 356 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will drift off the coast of Nova Scotia on Friday and continue east Friday night. This will allow for warm advection with 925mb temps rising to around 9C and high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s on Friday afternoon. There will be some increase in moisture in northern sections south of a cold front from the Great Lakes across southern Canada by Saturday morning, so have chance of showers mainly across the far north Friday night. With the clouds expecting low temps milder than the previous two nights with lows 45 to 55 warmest northwest. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 356 PM EDT Wednesday...A bit of a roller coaster expected in the long term as warm temperatures on Sat/Sun cool to near or slightly below normal by Mon/Tue after a strong cold front passes. Confidence is average as models in decent agreement though some differences in timing and amplitude start creeping in by Sunday into next week. On Saturday, weak east-west cold front eases south from Canada becomes nearly stationary near the international border and keeps a chance of showers in the north as moisture remains and precipitable waters rise over an inch. 925 temps rise to near 13C and with lots of clouds especially north high temps will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Sat night into Sunday morning the front moves back as a warm front putting the region into the warm sector. This means any showers should be mainly north and may mainly be north of the border by midday Sunday. Some timing difference are introduced with cold frontal passage either late in the day Sunday or Sunday night. The pressure gradient increases and winds could be quite gusty as 850 winds increase over 50 kts. For now have increased SW wind gusts to 20 to 30 kts. Precipitable water increases to over 1.5" with the front and some indication of 250 J/kg MUCAPE so will have to watch even higher gusts if any low topped convection develops as a narrow cold frontal precip band sweeps through the north country late Sunday or Sunday night. Temperatures a bit tricky on Sunday highs in the 70s but could be tempered depending on timing of the cold front and amount of cloud cover. Additional differences in model timing of weather features Monday and Tuesday but looks like they will feature an upper level trof moving through the region with cold advection with periods of cold season stratucu and perhaps some lingering upslope showers. Temperatures will return to more seasonably cool readings in the 50s. By Wednesday it looks like warm advection returns and temperatures warming slightly into the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00Z Thursday...Expect generally VFR through the TAF period. An upper level trough will continue to swing through and produce scattered showers across southern Vermont so I`ve mentioned VCSH for RUT through 04Z. There may be a few periods of MVFR at RUT but not enough to warrant a tempo group. After 04z evening the precip should end as dry air moves in from the north. Based on upstream obs I think the clouds will hold on a little longer than initially thought and so we should keep a BKN/OVC100 ceiling until 9-11z Thursday morning. The clouds should clear by mid morning tomorrow at the latest leading to mostly clear skies tomorrow. Winds will be generally fairly light overnight and as we head into the afternoon Thursday. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. Patchy FROST. Friday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ006-008-010- 016>018. NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ028.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos/Taber SHORT TERM...Sisson LONG TERM...Sisson AVIATION...Deal

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