Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 190146 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 946 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 945 PM EDT MONDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SHARPLY FALLING TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS TO REFLECT THIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL ON TRACK FOR 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S ELSEWHERE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WE WILL SEE SKIES BECOMING CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT CHILLY FOR MID-AUGUST WITH WIDESPREAD 40S...TO LOCALLY 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LOCATIONS SUCH AS SARANAC LAKE AND LAKE PLACID EXPECTED TO SEE THE MERCURY DROP INTO THE MID 30S. WITH SOME RECENT RAINFALL...EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE VALLEY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED LOCALES. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF FROST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE TEMPS MAY APPROACH FREEZING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS IN VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CHILLY DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF SOME CLOUDS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MODELS NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...WHERE LIKELY POPS PREFERRED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MUCH LOWER AS YOU HEAD EAST ACROSS VERMONT AS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INDICATED FOR EASTERN VERMONT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 324 PM EDT MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY. GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES IN SHOWING PRIMARY PRECIPITATION SHIELD BEING CONFINED TO NORTHERN NY. I`VE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THIS AREA WITH ONLY CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS VT. SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY IN VICINITY OF MID-LEVEL LOW OFFERS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER PRIMARILY IN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING COVERAGE OF STORMS TO BE WIDESPREAD. FORECAST PRECIPITATION FROM THIS ALSO NOT LOOKING TO BE MUCH...ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER-INCH OR LESS. THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN THEN TRANSITIONS TO ONE OF REX BLOCKING WITH A SLOW-EVOLVING SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL REGIME. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL ESSENTIALLY BECOME STUCK BETWEEN BUILDING UPPER RIDGING INTO WESTERN NY STATE AND A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK AND CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR 40N/70W. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS MAINE/NH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS TROUGHING LIKELY KEEPING MUCH OF EASTERN VT IN A COOLER EASTERLY MARITIME AIR MASS /HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S/. HIGHS ELSEWHERE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. IT DOES LOOK TO BE MOSTLY DRY HOWEVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BEST CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION SUPPRESSED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EASTERN COASTLINES OF NEW ENGLAND. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE NORTHWEST LIKELY WILL ACT TO PUSH THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW NORTHWARD BUT DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE IN HOW THAT EVOLVES. THEREFORE...SHOWN CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THIS EVENING WILL START WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING CUMULUS CLOUDS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 5KTS...GOING CALM FOR MOST AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH BEST CHANCES BEING AT KSLK AND KMPV. EXPECT KSLK TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO IFR VSBYS BETWEEN 03Z-05Z...FURTHER DETERIORATING TO VLIFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. KMPV WILL BE SLOWER...WITH BR/FG DEVELOPMENT PRODUCING VLIFR CONDITIONS AROUND 06Z THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EARLY AM FOG BURNS OFF BY 12Z-13Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF TUESDAY. WINDS LIGHT AND PREDOMINANTLY GOVERNED BY TERRAIN/LOCAL EFFECTS AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVERHEAD. OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z...MOST PREVALENT AT KMPV/KSLK. 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ANY SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR BR/FG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK. 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AS SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...EVENSON/RJS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...LOCONTO AVIATION...KGM

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