Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271711 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 111 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure aloft will be over the North Country today and early tonight, with high temperatures today in the 70s to around 80 from western Vermont to northern New York. High temperatures will be mainly in the 60s to lower 70s over eastern and northeast Vermont today. A frontal system will move into the region after midnight tonight bringing a a chance of rain showers to the region and a slight chance of thunderstorms. There will be a chance of showers Friday morning, but skies will become mostly sunny by Friday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 103 PM EDT Thursday...Minor tweak to cloud cover grids across eastern/central cwa and associated temps. Vis satl pic shows mostly cloudy skies continue eastern cwa with temps mainly in the 60s...while cpv is on the edge with clear skies west and clouds east...with temps warming into the l/m 70s as of 1 PM. Western cwa is experiencing mostly sunny skies with some high clouds moving in later this aftn with temps warming mainly into the 70s. Still anticipating highs ranging from the m/u 60s east to upper 70s/lower 80s west. Overall weather elements look good in current forecast. Previous discussion from 424 AM EDT Thursday...An upper ridge will be over the region today, with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny. However, a low level temperature inversion over eastern and northeast Vermont will keep low clouds in there through this morning before skies become partly sunny this afternoon. Areas of fog over the Adirondacks and the Saint Lawrence valley early this morning will burn off later this morning, with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny with highs in the 70s to lower 80s expected from the Champlain valley westward to the Saint Lawrence valley. Clouds east of the western slopes of the Green mountains will keep temperatures cooler there today with highs mainly in the 60s to lower 70s. Tonight, a weakening frontal system will approach the region from the eastern Great Lakes and will bring rain showers to the North country after midnight tonight. Have also continued to mentioned a slight chance of thunderstorms late tonight, as Showalter indexes slightly negative, suggesting some elevated convection possible. Lows will be mainly in the 50s tonight. Showers to linger into early Friday morning, with skies becoming mostly sunny by Friday afternoon. High on Friday will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 520 AM EDT Thursday...Clouds increase Friday night with increasing chance of showers as bits of energy approach during the short term. North Country remains in WSW to ESE flow at 500mb with Bermuda high in place and northerly trough trekking across Hudsons Bay and extending southward towards the Great Lakes. Not a whole lot of dynamics or moisture associated with energy moving over the northeast. Strong upper level jet (120-140kts at 250mb) looks to remain to our north but could help provide lift for some showers late Friday night into Saturday. Canadian high pressure at the surface along with building ridge axis aloft expected to provide dry Saturday afternoon and night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 520 AM EDT Thursday...Active pattern continues to be the trend in the long term. High pressure over the North Country will be interrupted by Sunday afternoon as warm front brings clouds to the region and increasing chance for showers...mainly late in the day for portions of Northern NY. Associated closed surface low will continue to strengthen as it heads towards the central Great Lakes. Warm front could continue to bring showers Sunday night into the first half of Monday, but models differ on exact location of where the warm front sets up...remaining north of the international border or over northern portions of the forecast area. Either way, continued WAA in southerly flow will result in moist and warm conditions. Both GFS and ECMWF show a dry slot may move into the region Monday afternoon allowing some sunshine from breaks in clouds to warm temperatures into the 70s. Southerly jet of 40-50kts at 850mb develops resulting in breezy conditions across the Champlain Valley at least. Front still looks to moves from west to east across the North Country Monday night into early Tuesday. Slight chance of thunderstorms still possible with weak instability, but overnight timing not as favorable. Widespread rain of 0.5-1" should not cause any significant hydro problems on rivers. Main 500mb trough passes over the region Tuesday, keeping low level moisture and potential for showers. Developing shortwave around the Great Lakes region will keep chance for showers through the end of the period as we remain under westerly flow. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Through 18Z Friday...Vis satl continues to show low clouds and mvfr cigs at mpv/rut this afternoon...thinking these cigs will lift to vfr by 20z...with the rest of the taf sites experiencing vfr conditions. Tonight...soundings show low level southeast flow will advect moisture back into MPV with cigs trending from vfr to mvfr to ifr after 06z. Meanwhile...mid/upper level clouds increase from sw to ne ahead of boundary this evening...with a period of light rain showers between 06z-12z. A brief period of mvfr cigs/vis possible with fropa overnight...along with a rumble of thunder at slk/mss. Otherwise...breezy south winds at 10 to 20 knots with local terrain impacts will shift to the southwest/west by Friday morning...with vfr conditions prevailing. Outlook... Friday: VFR. Breezy. Slight Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH/Taber SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Taber

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