Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 010012 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 812 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 707 PM EDT SUNDAY...SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO CRNT FORECAST BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. FIRST I HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER AFT 00Z TONIGHT...AS SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY IS DECREASING QUICKLY ACRS OUR CWA. MAYBE A RUMBLE OR TWO OUT TWD THE SLV...ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY...BUT HAVE NOTICED VERY LIMITED LIGHTNING WITH THIS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS. ALSO...HAVE DECREASED POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT THIS EVENING...WITH CRNT RADAR SHOWING BEST PRECIP ACRS EXTREME SOUTHEAST WINDSOR COUNTY. VSF DID PICK UP A QUICK 0.12 OF PRECIP IN THE PAST...BUT GIVEN CRNT TRENDS THIS SHOULD BE EAST OF REGION BY 00Z. OTHERWISE...WITH PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACRS OUR REGION...EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES TO CONT ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT AND THE DACKS...WITH PATCHY FOG LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. HAVE INCREASED SFC DWPTS IN HRLY GRIDS BY SEVERAL DEGREES WITH MANY READINGS IN THE U60S TO L70S ACRS OUR REGION...MAKING IT FEEL VERY MUGGY OUTSIDE. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR LOWS TONIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST FOLLOWS... FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD (60S) AND WINDS REMAINING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE IDEA OF SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO AS PARENT UPPER H5 SHORTWAVE SKIRTS THE INTL BORDER BETWEEN 00-06Z. WITH PWATS STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE (1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES) SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THOUGH WITH MEAN CELL MOVEMENT OF 15-20 KT HYDRO CONCERNS APPEAR MINIMAL ATTM. THEREAFTER CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND LARGELY DRY LATER TONIGHT AS TROUGH PUSHES EAST/SOUTH AND MODEST SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. PATCHY FOG ALSO A POSSIBILITY IN FAVORED LOCALES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANYTHING MORE WIDESPREAD IS LOW GIVEN WE LIKELY WON`T COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES REMAINING SEASONABLY HIGH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z 925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS. THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT TO OUR WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT. ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG. HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY BE DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS WERE TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR HWO...THOUGH KEEP PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S) UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT. UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AS OF 00Z MONDAY. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS OF 00Z MONDAY...BUT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG AND MIST OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING ANY FOG OR MIST TO LIFT BY 14Z MONDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY SO LOW CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SURFACE TO 5000 FEET...BUT STILL EXPECTING VFR CEILINGS AFTER 14Z MONDAY. OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...WGH/SLW

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