Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 141100
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
700 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
After warm and dry conditions through this evening, low pressure
will track through the North Country tonight and early Friday
bringing rain and modest river rises across central and southern
Vermont and the Adirondacks. Another quick moving system will move
through the Northeast late this weekend bringing another round of
rain and high elevation snow. Then conditions remain unsettled
heading into next week with near seasonal temperatures and periods
of showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 651 AM EDT Thursday...Main adjustment was to decrease
morning temperatures marginally to better match observation
trends. Cooling was more efficient than anticipated in the
Champlain Valley with a mix of above freezing and at/slightly
below freezing outside of urban centers. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track for some warming through the early afternoon
with unseasonably warm highs generally in the low/mid 50s with
some spots topping out in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees.
Previous Discussion...Mild conditions will persist through this
evening with high temperatures running a few degrees cooler
than yesterday given slightly cooler 925mb-850mb atmospheric
profiles. Overnight, low pressure will track out of the Great
Lakes region and moving just south of the Adirondacks/south-
central Greens. Although flow aloft is zonal, there will be
fairly strong isothermal lift across the surface boundary
allowing for efficient precipitation processes. As such,
0.3-0.75 inches of rain is expected to fall across the region
with highest amounts across the Adirondacks/central Greens.
These totals will allow for modest river rises, but no flooding
is currently anticipated. The Mad River and Otter Creek are
susceptible to these rises possibly to bank-full, but speed of
this system will largely preclude acute flooding concerns.
Rainfall will clear west to east Friday with only a few showers
lingering over terrain by Friday afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 310 AM EDT Thursday...The steady precipitation will move out by
Friday night but there may be some lingering areas of mist and
drizzle into the night. Temperatures should gradually drop below
freezing outside the broad valleys so any residual water will likely
freeze, leading to the potential for some icy areas on roads. A
moist airmass and a lack of wind should help keep any surface wet,
though temperatures should only fall slightly below freezing as
thick cloud cover should inhibit efficient radiational cooling. The
cloud cover will stick around into Saturday but the day should be
mostly dry as brief ridging builds in. The above normal temperatures
will continue as highs will be in the 40s across the region, with
parts of southern Vermont approaching 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 AM EDT Thursday...A deepening trough builds into the region
for the beginning of the week, bringing colder air and an unsettled
pattern. However, colder will be relative as temperatures only look
to drop to around normal for the time of year. A surface low will
pass to the north on Sunday, but its associated fronts will
bring a couple rounds of precipitation. The precipitation
should be elevation dependent rain and snow, with snow levels
likely somewhere between 1500-2500 feet. The western upslope
areas will see the most precipitation but even there liquid
equivalent totals will probably only be up to around 0.2-0.3
inches. The west and southwest winds will likely cause
downsloping in the Champlain Valley and it might not see much
precipitation at all during this time. These winds will help
advect some moisture off Lake Ontario into parts of northern
New York so precipitation amounts there should be enhanced a
little. Broad cyclonic flow will persist on Monday into
Wednesday, bringing some on and off snow showers, particularly
to western facing upslope areas. Despite temperatures rising
above freezing in the valleys, steep lapse rates should cause
the precipitation there to be mostly snow. However, it may take
until Tuesday for winds to shift to northwesterly so downsloping
could remain a factor in the Champlain Valley through Monday.
Ridging will start to build in at the end of the week and
temperatures will rise back above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Through 12Z Friday...VFR conditions will persist under high
pressure through 00Z Friday with generally light winds following
terrain influences. Winds begin to shift more easterly after
00Z with CIGs lowering and chances of MVFR CIG/VIS increasing,
especially at SLK, as low pressure brings rain showers to the
North Country. With a frontal boundary draped south, CIGs will
lower through warm rain processes to MVFR south to north after
00Z, and more earnestly after 03Z. Best chances for IFR will be
after 06Z for SLK/MPV. Can`t rule out IFR at BTV/PBG/RUT, but
easterly wind direction is not as favorable for lower CIGs at
these terminals. EFK/MSS will be well north of much of the
passing system`s influence with CIGS/VIS predominantly MVFR.
Some gusts around 20kts from downsloping at RUT should be
expected late in the period. Freezing levels will be at/above
peaks with some aviation icing concerns after 00Z Friday.
Outlook...
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance
SHRA.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Boyd