Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 030845 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 345 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SPOTS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY. ONE DAY OF BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY - WITH VALLEY HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 40S IN SPOTS. WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 324 AM EST TUESDAY...CENTER OF 1032-1034MB SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BUILD EWD ACROSS PA/NY EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WE/VE SEEN GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS LEADING TO READINGS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND LOCALLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS NRN NY AND FAR NERN VT. LOCALLY AS COLD AS -10F AT KSLK AT 08Z. ALL IN ALL...A TRANQUIL BUT COLD MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH FULL SUN ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND QUICKLY DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING (UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR MOST SECTIONS BY NOONTIME). RIDGE AXIS SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EAST OF VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW- LEVEL WAA MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AND INTO OUR REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHT SNOW TO COMMENCE ACROSS NRN NY 21- 22Z...AND ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT 22-00Z. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA...REGION OF 850-700MB WAA IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE MOVING ACROSS NY AND VT BETWEEN 00-03Z...AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOWFALL. THAT SAID...00Z NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET (60-65 KTS AT 4-5 KFT)...AND THIS ALLOWS BEST FORCING/WAA TO TRANSLATE PAST OUR AREA RATHER QUICKLY BY 04-06Z TONIGHT. ALSO NOTING SOME STRONG MID-LEVEL DRYING AT THAT TIME...SO THE STEADY SNOW WILL LIKELY BE OVER AROUND MIDNIGHT-1AM WITH JUST SOME PATCHES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR VERY FINE SNOW CRYSTALS REMAINING 06-12Z TONIGHT. WITH BEST FORCING...WILL SEE A QUICK 2-3" OF SNOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CT RIVER VALLEYS...AND LOCALLY 3-5" IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...NRN ADIRONDACKS AND N-CENTRAL/NERN VT...WHERE WINTER WX ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED. IMPACTS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF SOME TRAVEL SLOWDOWNS DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY HOVER IN THE MID-UPR 20S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 324 AM EST TUESDAY...PREVAILING DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 40S IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE STREAK OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS AOB FREEZING SHOULD COME TO AN END ON WEDNESDAY AT MONTPELIER...WHERE THE LAST READING ABOVE 32F OCCURRED ON JANUARY 19TH. STEEP LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH INSOLATIONAL HEATING WILL YIELD SOME WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER...BUT OVERALL LOOKING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOW-LEVEL CAA OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NWLY WINDS IN PLACE. AT THE SAME TIME...POSITIVE TILT MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL INTERACT WITH STALLED FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE TN VALLEY NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. IT APPEARS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE NRN FRINGE OF ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD AND ANY LIGHT SNOW WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL FORCING...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR A TIME ACROSS VT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE LOW- LEVEL N-NW FLOW AND FILTERED SUN LEAD TO COLDER DAYTIME TEMP READINGS ON THURSDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS (ROUGHLY 15DEG BELOW AVG IN MANY SPOTS).
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 324 AM EST TUESDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND SLIGHT WARMING TREND. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL ALSO HAVING SLIGHT RIDGING. LATE FRIDAY, THE RIDGE SILL SINK SOUTH AND WEST PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SLIGHT WARMING BEGINS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG DISTURBANCE/TROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. NONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS/DISTURBANCES APPEAR TO HAVE STRONG TEMPERATURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MAXES IN THE TEENS TO L20S. SATURDAY ONWARD, MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM L20S-M30S. MORE NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES SEEN WITH MIN TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE SUBZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY, WITH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING MINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MID- DAY HOURS TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TURNING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-30 KNOT GUSTS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO INCREASES BETWEEN 12-18Z...FOLLOWED BY A MVFR LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 20Z. THIS SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AFFECTING KPBG/KBTV AND KRUT STARTING AROUND 22Z THEN INTO CENTRAL VT AND KMPV AROUND 23Z. PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR EXPECTED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS 21Z-05Z AT KSLK/KMSS AND 00Z-04Z AT KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND KMPV. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AROUND 00Z BETWEEN 2-4KFT. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WHILE SNOW SHOWERS CREATE STABILITY AND MINIMIZE WIND GUSTS. BUT ANY BREAKS IN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER 04Z, WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KTS AS MIXING OCCURS. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES. 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE SOUTH. 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-016>019. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029-030-034-087.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM

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