Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 261949 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 349 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH OF TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED. INCREASING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...AND AROUND 70 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BE 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S THURSDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM 050-080 DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MORE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO EDGE NORTHWARD BETWEEN 06Z-12Z BRINGING A DECK OF VFR LOW CLOUDS. THERES A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY BETWEEN 03Z-06Z, OTHERWISE DRY UNTIL SUNRISE. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SEE INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/NW. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING BETWEEN 10Z-16Z, THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 16Z. SW TO S WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT KPBG/KMSS AND KSLK UP TO 28KTS. KBTV MAY ALSO SEE SOME GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT GUSTS SUBSIDE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS, PICKING UP WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 7-15KTS WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 18Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS...WITH LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR TAF SITES LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY MIDDAY. 00Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS. 18Z ONWARD...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.