Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 150211 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1011 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Expect some light rain showers near the Canadian border tonight...but precipitation will lift north of the border Sunday morning. Warm and breezy to windy conditions are expected across the entire North Country on Sunday with high temperatures in the 70s...which is 15 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year. During the late afternoon and evening hours on Sunday a line of showers will move across the area with a thunderstorm possible in northern New York. Wind gusts could be strong with this line of showers...but winds will also be gusty ahead and behind this line of showers with gusts in the 30 to 50 mph range. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 1011 PM EDT Saturday...Forecast on track as showers have now started at KOGS and are moving northeast and should be starting at KMSS soon. Relied on RAP/HRRR depiction of showers with simulated reflectivity which brings high probability to St. Lawrence county leading up to the midnight hour. The precip then streaks up the St. Lawrence river valley, as far south at SLK, PBG, and EFK, perhaps as far south as BTV as a weak cold frontal boundary now past KMSS reaches that line. Little chance of precip further south which should remain dry tonight with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows will be in the 50s to around 60. Sunday and Sunday Night...Active period of weather is expected. First issue will be strong winds and a wind advisory is in effect for the Saint Lawrence Valley from 5pm Sunday to 2am Monday and a wind advisory is in effect for most of the Northern Adirondacks from 8pm Sunday to 2am Monday morning. Wind gusts up to 50 mph can be expected across this area. During this time period a line of showers...and possibly a thunderstorm...will move across northern New York late in the day and across Vermont Sunday night. Gusty winds will be possible with the showers... but strong gradient winds will exist ahead and behind the line of showers and thus the reason for the wind advisory. Further east across the Champlain Valley and the remainder of Vermont winds will not be as strong...but will still gust in the 30 to 40 mph range with a few gusts to 45 mph. The line of showers will break apart overnight Sunday night and precipitation is expected to become more terrain driven as low level flow turns from southwest to northwest. As for high temperatures on Sunday...looking at above normal temperatures with highs in the 70s and a few spots getting close to 80. These values will be 15 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 341 PM EDT Saturday...Well, as summer-like as it`s going to feel on Sunday is equally as fall-like Monday will feel. The aforementioned cold front will be east of the forecast area come Monday morning, with the parent upper trough swinging through during the day and mean 925mb temps around 0C to start the day only warming about a degree or two C in the afternoon. Combine this with a stiff northwest wind at 10-15mph with gusts up to 30mph, and yeah, it`s going to be brisk to say the least with highs only in the 40s to perhaps 50 in the deeper valleys. In addition, though subsidence will be building in aloft as high pressure begins to build in, latest hi-res guidance indicates abundant low level moisture trapped below a weak mid-level inversion. This, combined with northwest upslope flow will keep skies mostly cloudy across much of the region through most of the day, with some clearing in the downslope regions towards sunset. Also can`t rule out some patchy drizzle in these same upslope regions, with possibly some freezing drizzle and/or riming across the high peaks. For Monday night, skies continue to slowly clear through the night as surface high pressure builds into the region and subsidence aloft finally erodes the low level moisture. With such a cold airmass aloft, clearing skies and abating winds will lead to the coldest night yet of this young 2017 fall season, with lows areawide in the upper 20s to low 30s. Frost/freeze headlines will most certainly be in our future where the program continues, which will just be the Champlain Valley. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 341 PM EDT Saturday...Not much to say about the long term forecast as the North Country will be dominated by high pressure the entire week. An upper low ejecting out of the lee of the Rockies will attempt to break into the ridge aloft Wednesday, but with strong subsidence in place feel that only an increase in cloud cover and perhaps some virga will be realized. Otherwise, a good deal of sunshine is expected every day with temps gradually warming from the low/mid 50s on Tuesday, to mid/upper 60s by Saturday. Lows most nights will range through the 40s. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 00Z Monday...Mainly MVFR/VFR ceilings for much of the period. Best chance for any precipitation and MVFR vsby will be tonight at KMSS and KSLK northward as a weak cold front now near MSS returns north as a warm front. Outside chance of -SHRA at KPBG/KBTV otherwise looking at VFR over the remainder of the area. The precipitation will lift north of the border after 12z and most areas will experience VFR conditions as region will be in the warm sector. After 14z watch for gusty south to southwest winds developing...generally in the 15 to 25 knot range perhaps reaching G40KT at KMSS in the afternoon. May be a bit higher winds at KBTV than currently forecast so stay tuned. A cold front sweeps in from the west reaching KMSS near the end of the forecast period with a brief heavy shower. Front will sweep across the rest of the TAF sites with gusty winds through 06z...which is beyond this forecast period. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR with lcl MFVR cigs. Strong winds with westerly gusts 35 to 40 kts possible esp at MSS. Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight Chance DZ. Monday Night: VFR. Areas FROST. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...Wind Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for NYZ026- 027-087. Wind Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for NYZ029>031. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Sisson SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.