Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 090053 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 753 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Variably cloudy skies will persist across the North Country tonight, between an area of low pressure across the central Great Lakes and a developing low off the coast of the Carolinas. Conditions will generally be dry tonight and Saturday morning, with just a few mountain or lake effect flurries possible, mainly across northern New York. The coastal low will track southeast of New England late Saturday into Saturday night, bringing light snow to central and eastern Vermont, especially during the first half of Saturday night. Light accumulations of one to three inches are possible across eastern portions of Vermont. Thereafter, an Alberta clipper will bring additional chances for light to moderate snowfall late Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures will generally trend colder next week, especially in the wake of the clipper system during the mid to later portion of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 749 PM EST Friday...Minor update to reduce pops across St Lawrence County and just mention flurries. Updated with latest conditions to capture current temps/dwpts and winds...along with sky cover. This included lowering temps at slk...as some clearing has developed and temps is already at 18f...while btv is running around freezing. Thinking lows will range from the lower teens to mid 20s depending upon locations and clouds...with coolest values over the northern dacks. All covered well in crnt forecast. Clouds thicken toward morning with light snow developing over central/eastern VT...where likely pops are located. Below discussion below: Narrow ridge of high pressure in place over PA/NY will bring relatively quiet weather conditions tonight into Saturday morning. The 700mb shortwave trough in the central Great Lakes has backed the low-level flow enough that lake effect snow has largely dissipated off Lake Ontario. Will still be dealing with lake effect clouds advecting across our region, especially into the Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley, with just a few upslope flurries possible in the nrn mtns. With the variably cloudy conditions expected, decided to go a few degrees above the MOS consensus tonight, with limited radiational cooling. Overnight lows generally expected in the low-mid 20s, except some upper teens east of the Green Mtns and in the Adirondacks if sufficient breaks can develop later tonight. P-gradient weakens during the overnight. The prevailing S-SW winds 5-10 mph this afternoon will generally become light and variable after sunset. On Saturday, wave low off the North Carolina coast will track northeastward to near/just SE of the 40N 70W benchmark at 00Z Sunday, and toward southern Nova Scotia by 06-09Z Sunday. Will see an increase in mid-upr level clouds thru the day Saturday, with high temperatures in the low-mid 30s. Based on 12z NWP guidance suite, it continues to appear that central/ern VT will get into the wrn fringe of the precipitation shield associated with synoptic forcing late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Highest PoPs generally 00-06Z Sunday, ranging from 70% in the CT River Valley, down to 40% or so in the Champlain Valley. Looking for a light snow accumulation of 1-3"...with around 1" for MPV and generally 2-3" in the CT River Valley. Not anticipating any major travel issues, but some slowdowns due to snowcovered roads can be expected Saturday evening/night east of the Green Mtns, including along I-89/I-91. Mid-level trough shifting ewd from NY/PA may bring a few additional snow showers to the region later Saturday night, and have indicated a more widespread 20-30 PoP across the region during the pre-dawn hrs Sunday. Again, prevailing overcast should preclude much radiative cooling with lows mostly in the low-mid 20s for Sunday morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 351 PM EST Friday...Shortwave and deep upper trof axis moving across area thus winds should be more WNW to keep any lake effect snow activity to our south. There are some subtle differences in positioning of surface trof across Lake ontario...close enough to my adirondack zones to have slightly higher pops to blend with WFO BUF better but main event should be to our south. Otherwise, there will be some mountain snow showers due to the instability of the colder air with temperatures around freezing. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 351 PM EST Friday...It`s beginning to look alot like winter...actually continuing the trend that has finally become established. HUGE, deep trof carved out across eastern NOAM will largely stay in lace across our region with several shortwaves re-energizing the trof bringing replenishing cold air and clippers with chances of accumulating snow. Monday we are between systems thus some minor short wave ridging and mainly dry with colder temperatures in the 20s across the north country. Monday night-Tuesday-Tuesday night...Next deep/strong shortwave drops down across Northern Plains/Great Lakes and eventually rotating across the Northeast on Tuesday. Surface clipper moving through with widespread light snow developing Monday night into Tuesday becoming more snow showery Tues aftn/eve. Models have been back/forth on the shifting of energy and the development of a coastal low...Gulf of Maine or south/near Cape. Latest trend, including ECMWF is Gulf of Maine but still enough energy/moisture for a moderate clipper snowfall...possibly advisory level (3-5+"). Wednesday...cold air has been replenished by above clipper. Mainly dry with still some leftover mountain snow shower possible and Highs only in the teens-L20s. Thursday is similar to Monday...between systems and slight ridging ahead of next shortwave. Mainly dry with temps similar or warmer by a few degrees from Wed. Thursday night-Friday...another clipper, not as strong and more moisture starved then Tuesday`s event yet still some lightsnow/snow showers possible. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Saturday...Anticipate mainly VFR conditions through the period at the TAF locations. The lake effect snow bands from Lake Ontario continue to weaken early this afternoon, with just flurries possible at SLK/MSS, and perhaps a stray flurry at PBG/BTV in the prevailing WSWLY flow. Ceilings are generally 4-5kft, but locally 2-3kft at MSS/SLK associated with lower ceilings with lake associated moisture. Should see lower clouds diminishing this evening and during the overnight hours. On Saturday, a wave of low pressure developing off the Carolinas will result in increase mid-upper level clouds across the North Country. May see some developing light snow across sern VT toward 18Z Saturday, but anticipate dry conditions thru 18Z at the TAF locations. Winds generally S-SW 8-10kts thru 00Z, diminishing to around 5kts after sunset. Locally stronger winds this afternoon/eve at MSS (10-15kts) with channeled flow in the St. Lawrence Valley. Outlook... Saturday: VFR morning. MVFR afternoon with developing light snow across central/ern VT. Saturday Night: VFR/MVFR. Light snow eastern VT. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos/Taber SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...Banacos/Neiles

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