Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 141100 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 700 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... After warm and dry conditions through this evening, low pressure will track through the North Country tonight and early Friday bringing rain and modest river rises across central and southern Vermont and the Adirondacks. Another quick moving system will move through the Northeast late this weekend bringing another round of rain and high elevation snow. Then conditions remain unsettled heading into next week with near seasonal temperatures and periods of showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 651 AM EDT Thursday...Main adjustment was to decrease morning temperatures marginally to better match observation trends. Cooling was more efficient than anticipated in the Champlain Valley with a mix of above freezing and at/slightly below freezing outside of urban centers. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track for some warming through the early afternoon with unseasonably warm highs generally in the low/mid 50s with some spots topping out in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees. Previous Discussion...Mild conditions will persist through this evening with high temperatures running a few degrees cooler than yesterday given slightly cooler 925mb-850mb atmospheric profiles. Overnight, low pressure will track out of the Great Lakes region and moving just south of the Adirondacks/south- central Greens. Although flow aloft is zonal, there will be fairly strong isothermal lift across the surface boundary allowing for efficient precipitation processes. As such, 0.3-0.75 inches of rain is expected to fall across the region with highest amounts across the Adirondacks/central Greens. These totals will allow for modest river rises, but no flooding is currently anticipated. The Mad River and Otter Creek are susceptible to these rises possibly to bank-full, but speed of this system will largely preclude acute flooding concerns. Rainfall will clear west to east Friday with only a few showers lingering over terrain by Friday afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 310 AM EDT Thursday...The steady precipitation will move out by Friday night but there may be some lingering areas of mist and drizzle into the night. Temperatures should gradually drop below freezing outside the broad valleys so any residual water will likely freeze, leading to the potential for some icy areas on roads. A moist airmass and a lack of wind should help keep any surface wet, though temperatures should only fall slightly below freezing as thick cloud cover should inhibit efficient radiational cooling. The cloud cover will stick around into Saturday but the day should be mostly dry as brief ridging builds in. The above normal temperatures will continue as highs will be in the 40s across the region, with parts of southern Vermont approaching 50. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 310 AM EDT Thursday...A deepening trough builds into the region for the beginning of the week, bringing colder air and an unsettled pattern. However, colder will be relative as temperatures only look to drop to around normal for the time of year. A surface low will pass to the north on Sunday, but its associated fronts will bring a couple rounds of precipitation. The precipitation should be elevation dependent rain and snow, with snow levels likely somewhere between 1500-2500 feet. The western upslope areas will see the most precipitation but even there liquid equivalent totals will probably only be up to around 0.2-0.3 inches. The west and southwest winds will likely cause downsloping in the Champlain Valley and it might not see much precipitation at all during this time. These winds will help advect some moisture off Lake Ontario into parts of northern New York so precipitation amounts there should be enhanced a little. Broad cyclonic flow will persist on Monday into Wednesday, bringing some on and off snow showers, particularly to western facing upslope areas. Despite temperatures rising above freezing in the valleys, steep lapse rates should cause the precipitation there to be mostly snow. However, it may take until Tuesday for winds to shift to northwesterly so downsloping could remain a factor in the Champlain Valley through Monday. Ridging will start to build in at the end of the week and temperatures will rise back above normal. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Through 12Z Friday...VFR conditions will persist under high pressure through 00Z Friday with generally light winds following terrain influences. Winds begin to shift more easterly after 00Z with CIGs lowering and chances of MVFR CIG/VIS increasing, especially at SLK, as low pressure brings rain showers to the North Country. With a frontal boundary draped south, CIGs will lower through warm rain processes to MVFR south to north after 00Z, and more earnestly after 03Z. Best chances for IFR will be after 06Z for SLK/MPV. Can`t rule out IFR at BTV/PBG/RUT, but easterly wind direction is not as favorable for lower CIGs at these terminals. EFK/MSS will be well north of much of the passing system`s influence with CIGS/VIS predominantly MVFR. Some gusts around 20kts from downsloping at RUT should be expected late in the period. Freezing levels will be at/above peaks with some aviation icing concerns after 00Z Friday. Outlook... Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Boyd NEAR TERM...Boyd SHORT TERM...Myskowski LONG TERM...Myskowski AVIATION...Boyd

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