Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 191747 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 147 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough of low pressure will move east from the Upper Midwest and reach northern New England by tonight. Clouds and a few showers are expected across the area today into this evening with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Drier air moves in on Sunday with more sunshine expected and highs once again in the mid 70s to the lower 80s. We are still looking at mostly sunny skies for Monday...the day of the solar eclipse...with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Another trough of low pressure approaches the region on Tuesday and will increase the chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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As of 144 PM EDT Saturday...Scattered to broken clouds with some isolated showers mainly over the Adirondacks and into the Champlain valley. Any shower will be brief and light. Temperatures warming into the upper 70s to low 80s at early afternoon and just about at their daytime highs. Earlier forecast tracking along well and no changes needed. Broad southwesterly flow today as the forecast area is between a ridge to our east and an approaching trough to the west. Boundary layer flow mainly south to southwesterly, and plentiful low level moisture feeding cloud coverage and scattered showers. A little bit of instability from what sun reaches the ground fueling isolated showers, but little if any forcing/lift. 500 mb trough will sweep west to east through the region tonight. Surface trough follows along, and while not big airmass change for cooling temperatues a westerly wind component will advect drier air into the forecast area. Isolated showers possible mainly before midnight and in northeast Vermont in lingering low level moisture and as upper trough passes. Surface dewpoints will fall from mid 60s into the 50s from west to east overnight. Still quite a bit of cloud cover tonight, and along with dewpoints will limit cooling of overnight lows to 55-65 degrees.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 436 AM EDT Saturday...High pressure builds into the region on Sunday and moves south and east of the area on Monday. Dry weather is expected during this period with increasing amounts of sunshine each day. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s with warmer temperatures on Monday as highs will generally be in the lower to mid 80s. Solar eclipse viewing should be good on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 430 AM EDT Saturday...All of the interesting weather in the extended portion of the forecast will occur Tuesday and Wednesday. Low pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes region early Tuesday, northeastward towards Eastern Quebec by Wednesday morning. Cold front associated with this low pressure system will cross our forecast area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Best chance for showers will be overnight Tuesday. May see some thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon ahead of approaching cold front. Tuesday will be a bit cooler than Monday but still much above seasonal normals, lower to upper 80s. Highest temperatures will be in t Wide range of conditions expected across the area with plenty of low level moisture around. Overall looking at VFR to MVFR conditions...but there will be periods of IFR to VLIFR ceilings of visibilities through 12z due to low clouds and fog. After 12z enough mixing will take place to remove the low clouds and fog with southwest winds in the 5 to 15 knot range. There may be a few showers that move across the area after 22z...but should not have an impact on aviation. he Champlain and Connecticut river valleys in Southern Vermont. A weaker surface trough crosses our area Thursday, but only chance for some light showers with this feature. Then a large ridge of surface high pressure will build for the end of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Through 12Z Sunday...VFR visibility and vfr sct-bkn sky cover through late evening with plentiful low level moisture. Ceilings lowering to IFR in the Adirondacks/KSLK and MVFR in Green Mountains/KMPV 06-13z timeframe with passage of upper trough. After 12-13z vfr scattered clouds. Surface winds southwest to west. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Hanson SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Hanson

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