Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 290557
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
157 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS A
MID-LEVEL LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. DRIER CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE WORK WEEK WILL START WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND TREND TO SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATE TO DROP FLOOD WATCH AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS EXITED THE REGION AND RIVERS AND STREAMS ONLY
RESPONDED SLIGHTLY. MOST ARE CRESTING NOW AND FALLING SO EVEN WITH
ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT WE SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY
ISSUES. CURRENT RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIGHT RETURNS LIKELY
IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN. LATEST 3KM HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY SO HAVE KEPT IN SOME LIKELY POPS THERE, BUT
LOWERED EVERYWHERE ELSE AS PRECIP WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SUNDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING. THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE SURFACE
RIDGING AS THE 500MB LOW EXITS EAST AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FILTERS
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRYING TREND MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME SUN
BREAKING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 60S.

SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY LIMIT SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT, BUT DIMINISHING WINDS WILL AID FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN AT LEAST THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE AREAS. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.

TUESDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES
GREATER THAN 500 J/KG AFFECTING SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
A 500MB TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BRING A WARM FRONT, RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TEENS, RESULTING IN
MORE SEASONABLE MAX TEMPERATURES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH UPPER
LEVEL JET ENHANCING LIFT AND PROLONGING THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SUNDAY...LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS WELL-SPECIFIED
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY CONTINUES IN MEAN
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. IT`S A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A
SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/VORT MAXES PROGGED TO IMPACT
THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER, THERE IS LESS CLARITY NOTED IN 12Z NWP
SUITE THAN PRIOR CYCLES REGARDING TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES. I`VE OPTED TO USE A HEAVY DOSE OF
BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD.

DAILY DETAILS FOLLOW...

WEDNESDAY: LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE IN THE PERIOD AS A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION CARVES OUT MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY. THAT ALLOWS FOR A PLUME OF RELATIVELY
HIGH PWAT AIR (UP TO 1.5 INCHES) TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD PARALLEL
TO SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PER 12Z GFS, WARM SECTOR AIRMASS
CHARACTERIZED BY LI`S OF -4 AND CAPE VALUES AOB 1000 J/KG, WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES 35-40 KTS. SO THERE COULD BE A WINDOW FOR
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/HYDRO CONCERNS
WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. KEPT POPS HIGH LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL FOR
VT AND CLOSER TO LIKELY FOR NORTHER NY. SHOWN FORECAST QPF
WEDNESDAY UP TO A HALF INCH, BUT LOCALLY MORE IN CONVECTION.
DEPENDING ON SPEED THAT FRONT EXITS - WHICH MAY TURN OUT TO BE
SLOWER - SHOULD HAVE POST-FRONTAL CAA REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE M50S/NEAR 60.

THURSDAY: GFS/EC REALLY ARE AT ODDS WITH REGARD TO HOW THURSDAY
PLAYS OUT. THE GFS DEPICTS AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE WITH LARGER QPF
ON THURSDAY, WHILE THE EC SHOWS MORE SHEARED-OUT SHORTWAVE
FEATURES AND LOWER QPF. KEPT IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE PERIOD, BUT WILL TURN
UNSETTLED HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY AS THE NEXT IN THE PARADE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AREAS OF DRIZZLE/MIST WILL PREVAIL AT THE
NORTH COUNTRY TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING AS
UPPER LOW TRANSLATES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. IT APPEARS IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MSS/SLK...WITH MAINLY MVFR-VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AS
WELL...THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE BRIEF IN DURATION BASED ON 0530Z
RADAR TRENDS. CONDITIONS TREND VFR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH
LIGHT (5-8KT) W TO NW WINDS. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO
PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMATION AFTER 05-06Z...WITH LIFR ANTICIPATED AT
MPV/SLK/MSS AND POSSIBLE AT THE REMAINING TAF LOCATIONS GIVEN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BRINGS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. INTERVALS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TRENDING DRIER BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT COULD SEE NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THURSDAY AM AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY AM...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ONE MONTHLY RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN SET
AT MONTPELIER AND WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW,
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN ON TUESDAY, THE RECORDS AT
BURLINGTON AND MOUNT MANSFIELD ARE IN JEOPARDY.

AS OF 5 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY
JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5 PM, 8.85 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD
FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36
INCHES SET IN 2013.

A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR BURLINGTON AND MT.
MANSFIELD, AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS
BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS AS OF
5 PM 06/28.

AT 8.44 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.48 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET IN
1922.

AT 14.87 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 0.41 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN
1998.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...BANACOS
CLIMATE...LOCONTO/MUCCILLI


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