Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 170852
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT BRINGING
A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION TO THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST EAST OF
MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1253 AM EST WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS OR SLEET...AND SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN. THIS COVER WELL IN THE FORECAST...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EST TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD. MORNING
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ANY LINGERING ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN
TAPERS OFF TO SCATTERED RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BY NOON OR SO.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BREAK OUT UNDER UPPER LOW IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS. AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE ON MORE OF AN OROGRAPHIC NATURE.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW DEVELOPING INDICATED BY FROUDE NUMBERS BELOW
1...COULD BE LOOKING AT AN UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT PBG...BTV...AND RUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUSTING A
BIT AT RUT.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES


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