Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 311148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
748 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 744 AM EDT SUNDAY...A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD
COVER AND MODERATELY STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DEW
POINTS ARE ALSO ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
MOST SECTIONS HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A
SLOW RISE TO THE MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST BATCH OF
SHOWERS AFFECTED NORTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM OF VERMONT DURING THE PAST 2-4 HRS...AND IS NOW EXITING.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TODAY...AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE
IN ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS
ADDITIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTN...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS
RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST.
THAT SAID...HIGH DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIMITED CAPE
OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN. COMBINATION OF HIGH FREEZING LEVELS
(12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY
LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS
WILL BE ENE 10-20 MPH...AND GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS DESPITE POTENTIAL
ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN
MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEW POINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS RIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN
THE VFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 19Z AND 00Z AND PRODUCE VFR AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...THEN WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV





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