Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 200726
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES FALL OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME PROTECTED HIGH
ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS
WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING WET WEATHER FROM
LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1242 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS AFFECTING TEMPERATURES EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VERMONT...BUT CLEARING TAKING PLACE ELSEWHERE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. HAVE TWEAKED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A BIT AS WELL DUE TO THE CHANGING CLOUD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FCSTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BTWN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TRRN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BTWN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLW WL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR CWA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BTWN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR CWA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CPV...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
CWA. WL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BTWN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LATEST IR SATL TRENDS SHOW LOW CLOUDS
FINALLY BREAKING UP ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS MORNING...WITH
CLRING SLOWLY PUSHING INTO VT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MPV BTWN 06-10Z THIS MORNING.
ALSO...WITH WEAK SFC HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS AHEAD STARTING TO APPROACH THE SLV THIS
MORNING WL OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. HAVE PLACED VCSH AT MSS/MPV/SLK TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. BETTER
MOISTURE ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LIKELY TWD
TUESDAY MORNING

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL
DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TUES THRU FRIDAY. DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS
WL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY AT PBG/BTV AND MPV BY WEDS...WITH MVFR
VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV/MSS/PBG. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE
WEDS INTO THURS AS RIDGE TOP JET INCREASES AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM
THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER







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