Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 160559
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1259 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will exit the region tonight and allow for a low
pressure system to gradually move into the Northeast Tuesday
through Wednesday. Clouds will be on the increase along with the
chances for light to moderate snow across the area and warmer
temperatures. Most of the North Country will see 1 to 3 inches
of snow with 3 to 6 inches of snow over southern Vermont.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1246 AM EST Tuesday...Forecast on track. Updated
temperatures with latest observations as mid to upper level
clouds have spread over the entire forecast area, preventing
much additional heat loss. Temperatures throughout have started
to climb a few degrees over the last couple of hours in response
to warm air advection and insulating cloud cover. Also adjusted
the PoPs to reflect the snow pushing into northern New York
slightly earlier than anticipated.

High pressure will move out of the area and we will start to
see a gradual increase in mid and high level moisture across the
area tonight. However before the cloud arrive we should see
decent radiational cooling. Thus I`ve had to drop min temps by a
few degrees this evening as a result of temps already being
lower than originally thought. Still only expect low
temperatures generally from 5 above to 5 below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EST Monday...Have issued a winter weather advisory
for Rutland...Windsor...and Orange counties of Vermont from
Noon on Tuesday through 11 AM on Wednesday. Expecting 3 to 5
inches of snow in this area with localized amounts to 6
inches...especially over the extreme southern portions of
Rutland and Windsor counties. Elsewhere during this time period
looking at 1 to 3 inches of snow.

Approaching upper trough on Tuesday stays more of an open wave
as it moves eastward across the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This should be a limiting factor in significant
precipitation over the area and feel data is showing a bit too
much precipitation for this type of pattern. With the southwest
flow aloft there will be a northwest to southeast precipitation
gradient and southern areas will have the best chance for the
accumulating snow...which is why we went ahead and placed
Rutland/Windsor/Orange counties in an advisory with lesser
amounts elsewhere. Snow should be light in intensity during the
day on Tuesday with best period of accumulating snows coming
Tuesday night through Wednesday morning before trough axis moves
east of the area and precipitation tapers off to some snow
showers Wednesday afternoon and night. Warmer temperatures are
expected both Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 20s both
days.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 419 PM EST Monday...Continued moderation of temperatures
across the North Country as W-SW low-level flow regime develops
across the Great Lakes into the northeastern CONUS will be the
main story for the long term. While the warm up will not be as
dramatic or as quick as we saw the end of last week, we will
high temperatures above freezing by the end of the week and into
the 40s over the weekend. Some lingering showers in light
northwesterly flow Thursday will give way to dry conditions for
Friday and into the early part of the weekend. A weak/fast
moving mid-level northern stream shortwave trough embedded in
zonal flow looks to move Saturday night/Sunday morning, which
looks to bring a wintry mix with it. While this system does not
seem to be significant, with another looming system early next
week past the end of the period, we may see some renewed hydro
concerns toward the end of the weekend into early next week with
ice jams likely in place until then. Definitely will need to be
monitored as we get towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Starting out the TAF period with
deteriorating VFR conditions as high to mid clouds begin to
thicken in advance of advancing system. Snow associated with
this system will spread from west to east over the next few
hours, bringing widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities by
09Z. First wave of snow will taper off between 11Z and 14Z,
with conditions temporarily improving to high MVFR/low VFR
throughout all TAF sites during this time. Next wave of heavier
snow will start at RUT around 20Z, then spread to MPV/BTV/PBG
between 00Z and 02Z.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 11 AM EST Wednesday
     for VTZ010>012-019.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/RSD
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Verasamy
AVIATION...RSD


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