Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 120725
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
325 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR ONE MORE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY. THE
PATTERN WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL CREATE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND CREATE A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 114 AM EDT SATURDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH
JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR SCATTERED CIRRUS
DECK MOVING IN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH FILTER MOONSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS. LOWS VERY COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT FRIDAY...IF YOU LIKED THE WEATHER ON
FRIDAY...THEN YOU SHOULD FIND NO FAULT IN SATURDAYS WEATHER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...UPPER 70S TO MID
80S...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
GENERALLY IN THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
SHALLOW CUMULUS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WILL DISSIPATE
ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST...BUT AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 MPH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING ON SUNDAY.
ANALYSIS OF KEY PARAMETERS CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTION SHOWS THE WINDS
ALOFT INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO ENHANCE THE SPEED SHEAR
OVER THE REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
COMBINE WITH THE SPEED SHEAR FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE STORMS WILL NOT
GET ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. PLUS THE COLD
FRONT REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...SO FORCING WILL BE A
BIT LIMITED. AGAIN WE WILL STILL SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS...JUST NOT
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM EDT SATURDAY...LONG-TERM PERIOD BEGINS ACTIVE WITH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE T-STORMS ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
TREND/RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS. NEAR SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

A RELATIVELY DEEP...CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
AT 12Z TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE ENEWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
EITHER LATE TUESDAY (00Z GFS SOLUTION) OR WEDNESDAY (SLOWER 00Z
ECMWF SOLUTION). A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING
THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING ACROSS THE REGION DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH BAND OF STRONG SWLY FLOW AND 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS. INSTABILITY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN DEPENDING
ON POTENTIAL FOR INSOLATIONAL HEATING...BUT BASED ON 00Z ECMWF
850MB TEMPS OF +14C TO +16C AND LOW-MID 60S 2-METER
DEWPOINTS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MODERATE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY PRESUMING PARTLY SUNNY INTERVALS EARLY IN THE DAY.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY (AROUND 60%) WITH POTENTIAL FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN COMBINATION
OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND STRONG SWLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY THE PRIMARY THREAT. WE/LL JUST NEED TO
MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF INSTABILITY FIELDS AS WE APPROACH THE
EVENT.

COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THEREAFTER...SHOULD BE TRENDING DRIER FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY PERIOD. THE 850MB TEMPS COOL TO AROUND +9C ON WEDNESDAY AND
ONLY RECOVER TO +10 TO +11C THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING AT
RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
MID-UPR 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG IN THE FAVORED
VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...OTHER THAN LOCALIZED FOG AT SLK/MPV 07-11Z
THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT S-SW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...AND
RETURN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. LOCAL LAKE BREEZE
EXPECTED AT PBG WITH SE WINDS 5-8 KTS DURING MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...RESULTING IN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS OWING
TO DOWNPOURS. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN HUMID AIR MASS ON
MONDAY RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF
SITES FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY...WITH FOG POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK/MSS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT (MAINLY 06-12Z TIME FRAME).

&&

.MARINE...
NO CONCERNS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH WINDS
SLOWLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING INTO THE 5 TO 10 KNOT
RANGE. HOWEVER...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY SOUTH
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WAVES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...EVENSON






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