Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 260525
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY RIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TONIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
FAR ENOUGH AWAY ON FRIDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER TO RETURN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME RADIATIONAL/NOCTURNAL FOG
FORMATION IN SPOTS. THE MOST FAVORED SPOTS ARE THOSE THAT SAW
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...FROM RUTLAND COUNTY NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
MOST OF THE RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.
DEVELOPMENT/REDEVELOPMENT OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR NY ZONES SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH FOG FORMATION ACROSS NRN
NY OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
GENERALLY 55-62F...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S BY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR ON OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AS REGION WILL BE IN GENERAL LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THUS LOOKING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY ALL LOCATIONS ON
THURSDAY AS TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND THUS NOT FEELING
THUNDER THREAT WILL BE THAT GREAT IN THE COMING DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS STILL INDICATE FAIRLY
ROBUST RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EURO IS
STRONGER WITH THE PATTERN, WHICH APPEARS TO BUILD A BLOCKING RIDGE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS ISN`T AS AGGRESSIVE, AND
AS A RESULT OUR AREA IS A LITTLE MORE SUBJECT TO SHORTWAVES
ZIPPING BY IN THE FAST FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

OVERALL, LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD OF TIME, WITH
TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY. DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE EXTREME WARMTH -- AS EVEN THE EURO WHICH IS THE WARMER MODEL
HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES REACHING 16-17C MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
GIVEN A BLEND WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS AND IT`S 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 13-16C, MAINTAINING THE CONCEPT OF LOW-MID 80S FOR
HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK SEEMS TO MAKE THE MOST SENSE.

AS I MENTIONED, IT DOES LOOK FAIRLY DRY, THOUGH WITH A SHORTWAVE
ZIPPING BY IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIMEFRAME, IT`S NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR T-STORM TO FIRE OFF. THIS FAR OUT,
TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT IF THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH
DURING PEAK HEATING, THEN THE CHANCES ARE BETTER. THAT SAID, LOOKING
AT FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES FROM THE GFS (WHICH KEEPS THE
SHORTWAVE STRONGEST), I DON`T SEE A LOT OF MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY.
IN FACT, THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT TIED IN WITH
THE BUILDING RIDGE. ALL SAID, I HAVE MAINTAINED GENERALLY 15-25%
POPS FOR THE WEEKEND -- WELL BELOW THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE WHICH WAS
CLOSER TO 50%.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY....PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT MPV/SLK/RUT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
SCATTERED VFR DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOG/BR DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS (MPV/SLK)...BUT
ESPECIALLY MPV WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND VERY SMALL EVENING DEW
POINT DEPRESSION. RUT ALSO LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF FOG/BR WITH
EVENING RAINFALL AND WEAKER THAN USUAL SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WIND.
ANY FOG/BR WILL LIFT BY 13Z WEDNESDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE
AND IMPACT...WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WINDS LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE TONIGHT WILL TURN WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 4-9 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT PBG WITH LAKE BREEZE.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. A BRIEF LOCALIZED
PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER ON
THURSDAY. LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHTS AT SLK AND MPV
IS ALSO LIKELY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR, THOUGH SOME POSSIBLE
SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI


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