Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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445
FXUS61 KBTV 180557
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
157 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift east tonight as a warm front
approaches from the southwest. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible with the warm front after midnight tonight into Friday,
especially in northern New York. Showers will taper off Friday
night, and remain possible on Saturday mainly over the higher
terrain. Sunday will be warm, a little less humid, with no rain
forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 157 AM EDT Friday...Starting to see warm air advection
precipitation increasing in areal coverage over west central New
York and southeast Ontario. This will continue lifting
northeast into northern New York during the early morning hours
before peeling off eastward across Vermont. Elevated instability
is also associated with the warm air advection as noted by the
negative Showalter Index values in this area. The area of
instability will also lift northeast into northern New York
through the early morning hours. Going forecast has this covered
well. No real big changes needed at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 349 PM EDT Thursday...For Friday the warm front lifts
through the rest of the forecast area and showers and increasing
chances for thunderstorms as atmosphere destabilizes. Shortwave
ridging at 500 mb shifts east, and by mid day Friday upper flow
becomes diffluent ahead of approaching shortwave trough moving
through the Great Lakes Region. Warm moist airmass remains in
place through the period with dewpoints remaining well into the
60s.

Forecast CAPE 500-1000 j/kg, not great but enough to support
some thunder. With high PWATS and warm cloud depth nearing
12,000 feet looking for efficient rainfall production and heavy
rainfall rates, however storms should keep moving along to
mitigate flooding risk.

Highs Friday in the 70s to near 80, and lows Friday night hold
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 318 PM EDT Thursday...Mainly dry weather is expected from
Saturday night through Tuesday morning. Surface ridge builds
over the region Sunday keeping things quiet through early
Tuesday. A shortwave will cross the area Saturday and Sunday. As
the ridge slides to the east Tuesday moisture and warm advection
will increase on southwest winds bringing more humid and
unstable air to the region, with precipitation chances
returning. Deepening low pressure will move from the northern
Great Lakes will move up the St. Lawrence seaway by Wednesday
bringing unsettled weather once again. Greatest precipitation
chances look to be Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Drier
weather returns to the region Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Low level wind shear will exist across
northern New York through about 12z with light and variable
surface winds and increasing south to southwest winds around
2000 feet. This is associated with a warm front moving into the
region which is also enhancing precipitation as well as isolated
thunderstorms. Conditions will trend MVFR through the morning
hours over northern New York. Eventually the showers will move
into Vermont between 12z and 18z and a trend toward MVFR
conditions will also exist. Some drying takes place with
precipitation moving east of the area after 18z...but ceilings
will remain in the VFR/MVFR ranges while visibilities stay in
the VFR category. Scattered showers will develop between 21z and
03z.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Slight Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Hanson
LONG TERM...Manning
AVIATION...Evenson



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