Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 262009
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
309 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND COLD WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MORNING MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL TREND MILDER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO OUR
WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EST THURSDAY...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST MAINTAINED MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THERE IS A TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED 500-300MB PV MAX ACROSS NRN OH AT 19Z...WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS EVENING. THE 12Z BTV-4 AND
BTV-12KM WRF RUNS SUGGEST CONTINUED MID-UPPER CLOUDS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FLURRY ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS...MAINLY THROUGH 03Z. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...BUT
DID MAINTAIN 20 POPS FOR ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY THIS EVENING MAINLY
ADIRONDACKS INTO RUTLAND COUNTY VT. ONCE THIS UPPER TROUGH
PASSES...WE SHOULD TREND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AREAWIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKEWISE BE BUILDING EWD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SO IT APPEARS WE/LL HAVE
LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING PROSPECTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE MOS CONSENSUS LOOKED REASONABLE - WITH LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO
10 BELOW...AND LOCALLY 15 BELOW IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. JUST MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DIURNAL CURVE
TO SHOW MORE RAPID TEMP DROP ONCE CLOUDS LESSEN LATE. WINDS
GENERALLY NORTH 5-10 MPH WILL GENERALLY LESSEN TO LESS THAN 5 MPH
AFTER 02Z.

SFC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 20 DEGREES
BELOW LATE FEBRUARY NORMALS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM EST THURSDAY...STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE (1040-1044
MB) REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD BRINGING DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS.
AIR MASS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE OVER TIME. DIDN/T SEE ANY
REASON TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE MOS CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS
ZERO TO -15F FRIDAY NIGHT...INTO THE LOWER 20S FOR HIGHS
SATURDAY...AND THEN +5 TO -5F FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
LIGHT INTO THE S-SW SATURDAY AROUND 10 MPH...AND GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. POPS NIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY IN WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF
THE WESTERN/UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, LOW IS ILL-DEFINED
BUT COME LATE SUNDAY WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM
WITH SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING SW TO NE. SUNDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT
WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NW AND
ALLOWING RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
TUESDAY. WHAT MAY POSSIBLY BE A MAJOR STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACK TO OUR WEST AND
NORTH. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS STORM ARE AS FOLLOWS: WITH FETCH
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO, GFS SHOWING PWATS HALF AN INCH TO ONE
INCH, WHICH COULD LEAD TO HEAVY PRECIP MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
STRONG S-SW JET OF 40-55KTS AT 850MB TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PRECIP ENHANCEMENT ON SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD
FACING SLOPES AND SHADOWING ON EASTERN SLOPES AND VALLEYS, AS WELL
AS STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MODELS SHOW TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, FURTHER SUPPORTING
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. WARMING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO MIXED PRECIP, BUT TIMING AND JUST HOW WARM IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ECMWF LAGGING BEHIND GFS IN TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THEREFORE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARMING WHICH WILL
AFFECT POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PTYPES. THESE MODELS HAVE ALSO NOT
SHOWED RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY YET. THIS FAR OUT, HAVE MENTIONED
SNOW MIX WITH/TO RAIN IN SOUTHERN VALLEYS, MIXING BACK TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACR0SS THE REGION.
THURSDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...KEEPING
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME MORE SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 30 SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...SOME AREAS REACHING THE M30S WEDNESDAY. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW SIGNIFICANT WARMING ALOFT WITH POSITIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AT 850MB SOME POINT ON WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT BEHIND THE FIRST
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. WARMING AHEAD OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE TEENS LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME VFR LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD. LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT KSLK AND KRUT AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z AS INDICATED BY VCSH.

AS UPPER TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA AFTER 06Z, CLOUD COVER WILL
DIMINISH TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK.

WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NW AT 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE OUT OF THE W-NW AT 3-8KTS
FRIDAY MID-MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-06Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR LATE TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM



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