Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 261150
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
750 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
AND WET SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. WHILE LITTLE OR NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN AND
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS...AN ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS
EXPECTED ABOVE 1000 FEET IN ELEVATION...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND FOR THE SUMMITS OF THE SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS QUICKLY WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY. THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER BUT CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 744 AM EDT TUESDAY...INTERESTING SETUP FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HRS
WITH VIGOROUS AND COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY
CENTERED ACROSS SERN ONTARIO AT 11Z. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT
WITH STRONG SFC-850MB FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING W-E ACROSS CENTRAL NY
INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE FORCING
12-18Z IMPACTING ESPECIALLY THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING. ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WAS QUITE DRY...WITH LIGHT N-NE FLOW
IN FRONTAL ZONE PROVIDING LOW PBL DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S. HOWEVER...THE STRONG SYNOPTIC AND FRONTAL-SCALE DYNAMICS
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS RESULTED IN RAPID SATURATION OF THE
COLUMN ALONG WITH EXCELLENT WET-BULB COOLING AS THE PRECIPITATION
BEGAN. ANTICIPATE ONE MORE REGION OF STRONG UVV WITH THE
APPROACHING VORT MAX...AND ASSOCIATED WET SNOW MOVING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING. WET SNOWFLAKES BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN
THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN/CT RIVER VALLEYS (PERHAPS A SLUSHY COATING
IN GRASSY AREAS). HOWEVER...STRONG ELEVATIONAL DEPENDENCE EXPECTED
IN SNOWFALL WITH POTL FOR 1-3" ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL GREEN MTNS ABOVE 1000` THRU 18Z. SHOULD SEE A
FEW 4" SNOWFALL REPORTS FOR GREEN MTN SUMMITS FROM WAITSFIELD DOWN
TO KILLINGTON BY THE TIME THINGS WIND DOWN AT 18Z. GENERALLY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR POPULATED SECTIONS BUT COULD SEE SOME MINOR
TRAVEL SLOWDOWNS ON HIGHER ELEVATION ROADS...INCLUDING SOME SLUSHY
ACCUM POSSIBLE ON I-89 BROOKFIELD AREA WITH ROAD SURFACE NEAR
FREEZING. TOTAL QPF AMTS 0.35-0.45" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN 6-9 HR PERIOD WITH GOOD UVV AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO SRN VT MID MORNING HRS. QPF AROUND 0.25" FOR BTV AND 0.10" OR
LESS TOWARD THE INTL BORDER WITH STRONG PRECIP GRADIENT EXPECTED
ON NRN FRINGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD. 2-M TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPR 30S...BUT RECOVERING BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S MID-LATE AFTN
WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO OUR EAST.

QUIET AND MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SEWD FROM
NRN ONTARIO. CHILLY AIR MASS FOR LATE APRIL WITH LOWS TONIGHT
MAINLY LOW-MID 20S NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND UPR 20S FOR
S-CENTRAL VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS OVER THE REGION WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS EMBEDDED VORT MOVES THROUGH
THE BASE OF TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

COME THURSDAY, THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTH AND EAST. AS THIS
TROUGH EXITS, SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE
FROM KANSAS/NEBRASKA AREA EASTWARD TOWARD CHICAGO BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE THIS FEATURE WILL BE REFLECTED AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LOW WILL TRANSLATE
OFFSHORE FRIDAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY,
ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY OVER OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM, DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN ON NW FLOW WITH
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE DRYING OUT FINE DEAD FUELS. BUT WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT LESS THAN 12KTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS LESS THAN
20KTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT MODELS
DISPLAYING LOTS OF DISPARITY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED MVFR TO IFR IN WET SNOW MAINLY
12-18Z WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD. LESSER POTL FOR PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
INTL BORDER...SO MSS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR THROUGHOUT. SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE AT MPV...AND 1-3" SNOWFALL AT SLK CAUSING
SOME IMPACT FOR GROUND OPERATIONS THIS MORNING UNTIL ABOUT 18Z.
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES...BUT MVFR TO
INTERVALS OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO WET SNOW THRU 17-18Z...MIXING
WITH RAIN AT TIMES AT ONSET AND AGAIN LATE MORNING. IMPROVING BACK
TO VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES MID AND LATE AFTN AND GENERALLY SKC
WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBY TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY N-NE AT 10KTS OR
LESS, BECOMING LIGHT NW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS



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