Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 182338 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 638 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet, seasonable weather is expected into the upcoming weekend. Outside a few light snow showers across the north, no precipitation is expected. A more significant storm system is expected to affect the region by early next week with milder temperatures and a wide variety of precipitation. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 638 PM EST Thursday...Only minor updates needed to the previous forecast, mainly to account for some scattered flurries activity in the Champlain Valley and to raise PoPs slightly for a period around midnight for some scattered snow showers. Otherwise, remainder of the forecast is unchanged. Previous Discussion...Mainly quiet weather is expected over the next 36 hours with weak surface high pressure remaining atop the region. Weak southwesterly flow in the lower and mid levels will allow some modest downstream transport of lake moisture in the form of flurries/light snow showers into the western Adirondacks and far southern St. Lawrence County. Additionally, a fairly robust mid level shortwave trough will track quickly southeast into our area overnight into the mid- morning hours on Friday. While upper dynamics are decent, precipitable water values only hover around 0.25 inch. With modest near-surface dewpoint depressions of 5 to 10 degrees only scattered light snow showers are expected with this feature. Regardless, only minor accumulations of a dusting to perhaps an inch will be possible, mainly to the lee of Lake Ontario and across elevated terrain. Clouds will be a plenty once again as a stubborn synoptic inversion persists in the 750-800 mb level. This will keep temperatures fairly uniform in the teens overnight under a light wind regime. By Friday any morning flurries/snow showers to end through the morning hours as the low to mid level flow backs to south/southwesterly over time. Skies to likely remain quite cloudy across the north, though southern counties to see at least some partial breaks here and there by afternoon. Mean 925mb temperatures hover in the -6 to -7C range supporting high temperatures close to blended guidance in the upper 20s to lower 30s. The southerly flow continues to increase by Friday night as the surface high slides east and the mean pressure gradient begins to tighten. Temperatures to take on a more non-diurnal character as readings trend steady from the Champlain Valley westbound holding mainly in the 20s. Slightly cooler values (upper teens) are expected across eastern VT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 307 PM EST Thursday...Fairly quiescent weather is expected for the first half of the weekend with the region remaining under zonal flow aloft. Low pressure will swing by to our north, dragging a weak cold front in its wake. Gusty west to southwest winds will exist out ahead of the front, which will allow for a relatively mild day with temperatures topping out in the upper 30s to lower 40s. The aforementioned cold front will cross the region late Saturday night, bringing the chance of a few rain or snow showers, mainly to the Adirondacks/far northern VT. Any snow accumulation would be light. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s areawide. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 307 PM EST Thursday...Main focus for this period will be a potential mixed precipitation event early next week. A cold front will cross the region Sunday morning along with scattered snow showers, particularly over northern portions of the forecast area. Temperatures will be cold Sunday night, but warming will begin again later Monday as the cold front returns back north as a warm front. This warming will continue overnight Monday night with temperatures rising or at least holding steady much of the night, then peak on Tuesday before another, stronger cold front moves in Tuesday afternoon. As is usually the case, cold air at the surface will be tough to scour out, resulting in warming aloft which will cause a period of mixed precipitation. Details are still uncertain given how far out we still are from this event, but the changeover from snow to sleet and freezing rain looks to move from southwest to northeast across our forecast area Monday night into Tuesday morning. The wintry mix will linger longest east of the Green Mountains, while the broader valleys will likely see plain rain by Tuesday morning. However, expect cold air will return rapidly later Tuesday afternoon with another cold frontal passage, turning rain back over to snow in all areas Tuesday evening. It`s still too early to start talking exact snow/sleet/ice/rain amounts, and this warm spell doesn`t appear to be anywhere as drastic as the last event. However, given that we still have several ice jams in place across the forecast area, the situation will need to be monitored as the details become more clear. Colder air returns for the middle of next week. Snow showers will gradually wane through the week, with Thursday expected to be dry with near to below normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Through 00Z Saturday...Looking at mainly VFR conditions from KPBG eastward for the period with MVFR at KMSS and IFR at KSLK for the overnight hours. Upper disturbance will pass through the region overnight through mid-morning Friday with scattered flurries and snow showers possible, especially at KSLK where a brief period of IFR vsby is possible from 04Z-08Z. Winds generally light and less than 6 kts overnight trend south/southwest at 5-10 kts Friday. Outlook... Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR. Definite wintry mix. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite wintry mix.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG/Lahiff SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Lahiff

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