-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 231749
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
149 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
One more day of dry weather and above normal temperatures is
expected across the entire North Country today. Moisture will
begin to spread from south to north across the area tonight with
a few showers possible over northern New York and southern
Vermont. Eventually rain will become more widespread over the
area Tuesday and Tuesday night and will be heavy at times. The
rain will end from west to east during the morning hours on
Wednesday. Total rainfall in the 1 to 2 inch range is expected
over much of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1043 AM EDT Monday...Overall forecast remains in good
shape for today with temps well above normal for October
normals. Did opt to adjust sky cover upwards for this afternoon,
especially across southern Vermont where a low marine layer is
working it`s way up the deeper valleys. Latest hi-res guidance
shows quite the increase in 1000-850mb moisture this afternoon
supporting the idea of these low clouds moving northward while
spreading.

Previous Discussion...Looking at one more day of dry weather
today with mainly some high level clouds over the area. High
temperatures will generally be in the upper 60s to middle
70s...well above normal once again for this time of year.

Deeper moisture will work into the area tonight from south to
north with increasing clouds and increasing precipitation
chances expected...mainly over northern New York and southern
Vermont. Winds will also be increasing overnight and should
become gusty across northern New York with gusts in the 30 to 40
mph range. Low temperatures will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 446 AM EDT Monday...Going forecast of widespread rain
developing over the area Tuesday and Tuesday night looks real
good. Strong south to north flow will keep precipitation in a
concentrated band and with precipitable water values well over
an inch...expect rain to be heavy in this band. Band becomes
established over the northern Adirondacks of New York Tuesday
afternoon with the band slowly moving east across Vermont
Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Can see many areas
picking up 1 to 2 inches of rain...but rivers are low at this
time and should be able to handle the new rainfall. The Saint
Lawrence Valley will only see about a half inch since the band
of heavier precipitation is expected to set up east of this
area. Strong southerly flow will also be moving across the area
and the 30 to 40 mph wind gusts expected tonight over parts of
northern New York will be shifting east into Vermont Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid 60s to lower
70s and in the upper 50s to mid 60s on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 302 AM EDT Monday...Parent upper trough then swings
through the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning with any
lingering showers waning over time as southwesterly flow
becomes re-established aloft over time. Out of respect for some
global ensemble members I maintained some chance pops across
eastern counties, but the overall idea will be for large-scale
drying under variable cloud cover. Low temperatures generally in
the 40s Wednesday night with 50s for highs on Thursday -
something a bit more climatologically reasonable for late
October.

Then mainly dry by Thursday night into Saturday afternoon as
transient high pressure skirts through the region and surface flow
backs to south/southwesterly ahead of additional digging energy
across the Northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes. Looking at partly
cloudy skies during this period as temperatures moderate slightly
into the 55 to 65 range for afternoon highs.

Frontal system with accompanying upper trough then edges into the
area by Saturday night into Sunday with a renewed threat of showers.
Leaned more heavily toward this morning`s ECWMF solution showing a
slightly slower frontal arrival as the GFS is often too progressive
with northern stream systems at longer time frames.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will continue across the
region through sunset, and largely prevail at most terminals
through 12Z Tuesday, with the exception being KMPV where marine
MVFR stratus advecting northward will build into eastern Vermont
after 02Z. Elsewhere, expanding cirrus deck will just gradually
lower through the night. After 12Z, low clouds shift into
portions of northern New York, mainly affecting KPBG while rain
shifts over KMSS and KSLK, but not eastward until closer the end
of the 24hr period. Winds will continue to be increasingly
gusty from the south/southeasterly in the 15-25kt range through
12Z, strengthening to 25-35kts east of KMSS thereafter.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kts. Definite RA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
A lake wind advisory is in effect today and will continue right
into Tuesday. Winds will be from the south at 15 to 25 knots
today and tonight...but increase into the 20 to 30 knot range on
Tuesday. Winds of this magnitude will create rather choppy
conditions...especially on the northern portions of the lake...
and waves will build into the 3 to 5 foot range by Tuesday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for
scheduled maintenance until further notice as technicians
repaint the radome.

MPV is not transmitting due to a communications outage. FAA is
aware of the problem. We do not have an estimated return to
service.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Lahiff
MARINE...Evenson
EQUIPMENT...BTV