-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 310015
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
715 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EST FRIDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR
NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY TONIGHT FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WIND
CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY.

SNOW HAS ENDED IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLOW CANCELLED FOR RUTLAND, WINDSOR, AND ADDISON COUNTIES. SNOW
WAS WINDING DOWN IN NORTHERN VERMONT HOWEVER VISIBILITIES BELOW
3SM AND SOME ACCUMULATIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IR
SATELLITE SHOWING CLEARING SKIES MOVING INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FALLING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN NORTHERN VERMONT AND FROUDE
NUMBERS INDICATING BLOCKED FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, SO
UPSLOPE WILL WRING OUT WHATEVER MEAGER MOISTURE EXISTS.
NEVERTHELESS EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH
THE EVENING.

NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED 500 MB TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EXTENDING SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOWING VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CLIPPER HAS
LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA, AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT WILL HELP WITH
TRYING AND ENDING SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
HAS DEVELOPED JUST OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...ARCTIC
FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN NY AND WERE
DROPPING THROUGH THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. TEAMS DROPPING WELL BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO ZERO
FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. HOWEVER IF CLEARING MOVES FURTHER
EAST INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OR ON INTO VERMONT TEMPS COULD TANK
FURTHER EAST AS WELL. WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT DROPPING TO BETWEEN
15 AND 35 BELOW...WITH LOWEST VALUES IN ADIRONDACKS WHERE WIND
CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING WITH RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS TO -20S AND WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND
LOWER TEENS SOUTH WITH WIND CHILLS 15 TO 30 BELOW THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOME MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT...OTHERWISE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
WAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. CLOUDS RETURN SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT BETTER
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL LIE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...LINGERING MVFR TO INTERVALS OF IFR
VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW TO BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO BTV AND MPV
GIVEN PERSISTENT BLOCKED FLOW. FOR THE BTV TAF HOWEVER, THE MOST
PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS SHOULD BECOME MORE TIED TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STRONG CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION AND DRYING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER
RAPID CLEARING OF OVC VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD VFR ALL TERMINALS
BY MORNING. THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-12 KTS,
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST GUSTS
TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY INTO THE DAY SATURDAY (AS HIGH AS 25
KTS).

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>008-
     010-016>018.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO