Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 261723 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1223 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1219 PM EST FRIDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO BETTER MATCH VIS SATL TRENDS FOR CLOUD GRIDS...ALSO DROPPED NORTHERN DACK TEMPS BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES FOR HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTN. TEMPS HERE AT BTV HAVE INCHED UP 1 DEGREE SINCE 7AM THIS MORNING...WITH SIMILAR TYPE SCENARIOS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT OUR CWA. THINKING HIGHS WL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S DACKS/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS TO L/M 40S WARMER VALLEYS WITH MTN SUMMITS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 20S. BEST CHC FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WL BE SLV...WESTERN CPV...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT NEAR THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 217 AM EST FRIDAY...GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS ON NRN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WITH A MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE INTL BORDER. MAIN ISSUE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PREVAILING STRATUS...AND 00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN PESSIMISTIC FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING ACROSS OUR REGION WITH SATURATED CONDITIONS 3-4KFT AGL. MAINTAINED GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY. ALSO STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON TEMPS WITH CONTINUED MILD CONDITIONS. LOWS GENERALLY UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S TONIGHT (15DEG ABOVE NORMAL) FOLLOWED BY HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOW-MID 40S ON SATURDAY (10-15DEG ABOVE NORMAL). SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO SWLY LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. HAVE INDICATED A POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMULATION OF DUSTING-2" SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS MUCH OF FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH PBL TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY. MAY SEE SOME WET SNOW FLAKES AS SHOWERS END. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE NWLY WINDS WITH QUASI-STEADY TEMPERATURES WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOOKING AT TEMPS IN THE MID-UPR 30S FOR MOST SECTIONS ON SUNDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 327 AM EST FRIDAY...OVERALL QUIET FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKENDS COLD FRONT. ISOLATED LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH IN THE DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW SETTLING IN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDING CLOUDS AS WELL AS A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN ON THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW, RESULTING IN MAX TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW UNIFORM SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH 850MB, BEHIND AN UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE TROUGH MAY BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA, WHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL GIVE A CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH KSLK HANGING ONTO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. ALL SITES EXPECTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN OVC ESPECIALLY MID DAY. KSLK MAY SEE MVFR CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT, WHILE REST OF THE TAF SITES MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WSW AT 5-10KTS THIS MORNING AND THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. KMSS AND KSLK WILL SEE GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS IN THE MORNING...DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT SW TO SSW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY SUBSIDE WIND SPEEDS TO ABOUT 5 KTS OR LESS. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 12Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...BRIEF RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. 18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY MSS/SLK/MPV. 00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM

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