Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 260754 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 354 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system off the North Carolina coast will move slowly northeast through Wednesday. This will keep quite a bit of moisture over the area tonight through Wednesday morning with occasional light rain expected. Improving conditions develop Wednesday afternoon and especially into Thursday as a ridge of high pressure moves into the region. Above normal temperatures are expected Wednesday and especially on Thursday with highs in the 70s to around 80. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 203 AM EDT Wednesday...Current forecast in good shape, so no changes have been made. Previous discussion from 1029 PM EDT Tuesday...overall forecast in good shape. Areal coverage of light rain expanding just to our south and working its way north...which is what the current forecast has. Made just a few minor tweaks to temperatures and dew points...otherwise no other changes needed at this time. On Wednesday...the upper low to our south that has been bringing the moisture up into our region moves east and takes a bulk of the precipitation with it. Improving conditions are expected with drier weather moving in and some decrease in cloud cover. Highs should generally be in the 60s to around 70. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 354 AM EDT Wednesday...Frontal boundary extending from closed low around James Bay will moves across the North Country Thursday night through early Friday. Even though the front will exit east on Friday, vorticity at 500mb will continue to affect the region with clouds. Temperatures not as warm with generally 70s in the Champlain Valley, eastwards. 60s to the west. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 354 AM EDT Wednesday...As ridge axis sets up near Bermuda, several pieces of vorticity will move over the Northeast, resulting in multiple days of chances of rain showers. Models continue to show brief period of dry weather over the North Country Saturday night into Sunday before strengthening low pressure system brings WAA showers Sunday night. Expect frontal boundary associated with the stacked low to affect the region Monday night. With PWATS over 1.5 inches, still looking at periods of heavier rain along with gusty winds due 850mb jet of 40-50 kts or more jet. GFS continues to show 500-1000J/kg MUCAPE in the St Lawrence Valley on Monday, which could help initiate convection. Precipitation chances continue on Tuesday as the base of the mid-level trough moves over the region. Precip begins to taper off late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thursday...Mainly VFR in light rain showers across the region as of 06Z Wednesday, with some local pockets of IFR/MVFR in fog and mist. Expecting most of the light rain shower activity will come to an end by 18Z Wednesday, as an upper ridge builds into the region this afternoon. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/WGH SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...WGH/Nash

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