Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 190504 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 104 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The weekend will feature slightly unsettled weather Saturday and Saturday night with a few light showers. Sunday will be mostly sunny, dry and warm. That sunny and warm weather will continue Monday, allowing for perfect conditions to view the solar eclipse. Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms return for late Tuesday and into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 104 AM EDT Saturday...Line of showers continue to move east across Vermont early this morning. The northern portions of the line is weakening...but brief heavy downpours are possible along the southern portion of the line. Have adjusted forecast to focus precipitation over Vermont with nothing in northern New York. Should still keep quite a bit of clouds around early this morning along with the development of some fog...which going forecast has covered well. Saturday: Another day that will be on the slightly warm and humid side, but not an uncommon mid-summer day. At upper levels, there will be a trough off to our west, putting us in deep southwest flow. However the mid/upper levels will still be relatively dry, so this will limit the potential for convective activity. Hi-res models do indicate a few hit or miss (but mostly miss) showers developing during the day. As such, have some 20-35% PoPs, highest across the higher terrain of northern Vermont. High temperatures will be a few degrees above normal, with upper 70s to lower 80s. Saturday Night: models all indicate the upper trough will be passing overhead, and this passage will be accompanied by clouds and a few light showers. Kept PoPs in the 25-35% range.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 PM EDT Friday...If you love outdoor summer activities, Sunday will definitely be a day to take advantage of it. Plenty of sunshine, temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s, and most importantly lower dewpoints -- all thanks to high pressure ridging and a west/northwest flow bringing in the drier air. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 350 PM EDT Friday...First...ECLIPSE. Partial for CWA...basically 58-65 percent. Sky conditions looking very favorable. Partial begins at BTV around 1725 UTC and ends around 1953 UTC according to NASA Eclipse sight. Zonal flow across area on Monday with surface high south of area, this will eventually allow for some increased humidity and clouds but really not til Tuesday. A pretty nice eclipse day with Highs in the 80s and sunshine. The next system has been delayed as its awaiting a sharp, deep shortwave from central Canada to drop across the Northern Plains Tuesday and then rotate across the Great Lakes Tuesday night and lift NE into Ontario/Quebec on Wednesday. The timing looking like more of a Tue ngt-Wed feature. However...surface temps in the M-U80s with rich dewpoints in the 60s and PWATs approaching 1.75 inches should produce SFC based CAPES in the 1000-1500 range at least. Also...despite the main dynamics and surface front still across the Great Lakes, there are falling heights...diffluent flow aloft and indications of some pre- frontal trof, thus chance for t-storms will increase toward evening...esp NY and Intl border. Wind dynamics don`t look too favorable and timing may just be too late but still worth watching as they will increase Tue ngt. Leading, strong shortwave and surface front move through Tue ngt- midday Wed. By Wed aftn...front should be just east of CWA. Trof axis still west of CWA Wed ngt-Thu with surface high still west as well. Therefore, some unstable flow but PWATs fall to around 0.50 inches on Thu. Current thinking is largely mountain upslope shower/sprinkle. Highs on Thu L-M70s. Thu ngt-Fri deep trof axis passes area with surface high pressure building into region thus primarily dry and cooler temperatures. Highs in U60s-L-M70s. A cool start with lows in the 40s/50s and some possible upper 30s. Friday ngt-Sat morning should be as cool or cooler. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00Z Sunday...We`ll continue to see a mix of aviation wx conditions across the North Country during the overnight hours. Stratus deck remains in place east of the Green Mtns, and should continue to hold thru the overnight period, with ceilings ranging from 500 to 1500 ft with TRRN OBSCD. Better mixing west of the Green Mtns with primarily VFR conditions. May see some localized MVFR ceilings vcnty of SLK/MSS after 06Z, but otherwise SCT-BKN conditions expected. Upper trough passing to our north is providing just enough forcing for ascent that a few showers and tstms will remain possible through 03Z or so this evening. Main impacts will be south of SLK with perhaps TSRA at RUT 01-03Z time frame as line of tstms across central NY moves ewd. Brief heavy rainfall and isold cloud to ground lightning is expected to be the main threat with any tstms. Generally looking at VFR conditions areawide after 13Z Saturday. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Nash NEAR TERM...Evenson/Nash SHORT TERM...Nash LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...Banacos/Nash

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