-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 090241
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
941 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT AND WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TO MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO THE
REGION ON MONDAY...BUT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
TURNING COLDER AND DRIER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 941 PM EST SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR START TIME CHANGES
FOR LIGHT SNOW I`VE MADE NO OTHER CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE WITH
THIS UPDATE. SFC ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST BUT ITS
INFLUENCE IS BEING FELT IN TERMS OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR. THE DRY AIR
ACTUALLY EXTENDS UP TO NEAR 700 MB PER 00Z ALB/GYX RAOBS. THOUGH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IT WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE DRY AIR TO SATURATE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FALLING LIGHT SNOW. I THINK THIS WILL ESPECIALLY
BE THE CASE FOR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. SO I`VE MOVED
THE START TIME OF LIGHT SNOW BACK BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. IT LOOKS
AS IF SNOW WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 2 AND 4 AM IN SOUTHERN VERMONT
(LIKELY ON THE LATER END OF THAT RANGE IN WINDSOR COUNTY DUE TO
THE DRIER AIRMASS)...BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND CENTRAL VERMONT...AND AFTER 6 AM
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. NO CHANGES TO PROJECTED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER/MID 20S.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 351 PM EST FOLLOWS...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES NWD ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL/ERN VT. A WINTER WX ADVISORY
HAS ALSO BEEN POSTED FOR ESSEX COUNTY NY. THESE AREAS WILL SEE
3-5" OF SNOWFALL...AIDED BY SELY UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE GREENS MOUNTAINS. 1-3" GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY...CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WRN SLOPES OF THE
GREENS...AND CT VALLEY. TIME FRAME FOR ADVISORY IS MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH 4PM MONDAY WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS MONDAY.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE
OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYER WAA. BOUNDARY
LAYER IS INITIALLY QUITE DRY (DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 10F)...BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTENING TAKES PLACE WITH STRONGER
850-700MB WAA TO ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES 05-07Z AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
07-11Z. IT SHOULD BE SNOWING IN MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE WITH SOME IMPACTS TO TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VT. BY 12Z MONDAY...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 1"
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND 1-2" FOR SRN
SECTIONS. DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW SFC-925MB LAYER WILL BRING
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS...AIDING IN SNOWFALL RATES FROM LUDLOW NORTH TO
MONTPELIER. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMTS ARE EXPECTED. ON
THE DOWNSLOPE SIDE...LIGHTER SNOWFALL FROM WRN RUTLAND CO NORTH INTO
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
09-15Z WITH DOWNSLOPE AND STRONG P-GRADIENT IN PLACE. LOWS TONIGHT
MAINLY LOW-MID 20S...STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING LATE.

BEST WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES PAST THE REGION BY
18Z MONDAY...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING LIGHT MIXED PCPN DURING THE
MID AFTN HOURS. THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME MIX
WITH SLEET FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS ACROSS MAINLY RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMTS 3-5" ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
GREENS...WRN ESSEX COUNTY NY...WITH 1-3" GENERALLY ELSEWHERE (AROUND
1.5-2" IN THE BTV AREA). NOT A MAJOR EVENT...BUT SOME
SLIPPERY/SNOW COVERED ROADS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXTRA TIME NEEDED
FOR TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY ERN SLOPES OF GREENS WITH HIGHEST TOTALS AND
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
32F EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS AND IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE MID 30S
ELSEWHERE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...BROAD WEST TO SWLY FLOW IN PLACE AS WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND NEW
BRUNSWICK MONDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING ABUNDANT LOW
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES AND PERHAPS SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE AND SRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NEW
YORK. MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 20S. HIGHS
TUESDAY UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S. SURFACE AND 700MB TROUGH CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE (ACCUMULATION DUSTING-2" POSSIBLE). THIS WILL USHER IN
SOME COLDER AIR WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST SUNDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH RIDGES INTO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND. FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE
MENTIONED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD IN THE
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. NOT A
STRONG LOW...NOR ABUNDANT MOISTURE...FOR CLIPPER SYSTEM THEREFORE
HAVE SOME MENTION OF CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AT THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER
AFTER 06Z AS AREA OF SNOW SPREADS NORTHWARD UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LOWER INTO
THE MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS...SNOW...AND FOG. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE AFTER
16Z AND RETURN UP INTO THE MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT BECOME SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z AND THEN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
AFTER 16Z. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS...BUT THERE
MAY BE SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AT KBTV AND KRUT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE 12Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY 12Z TUESDAY.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF
MVFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ034.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES