-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 301746
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
146 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1243 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH JUST A BUMP UP A COUPLE DEGREES IN MAX TEMPS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING AT A FEW SHOWERS POPPING ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK...BUT QUIET ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INHERITED FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE THIS MORNING THOUGH NEEDED AN UPDATE TO POPS/SKY/WX TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A QUIET DAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PERIODS. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A T-STORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SCOOTS ALONG THE INTL BORDER OVER THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER...THOUGH LATEST RAP/HRRR/BTV6 ARE HIGHLIGHTING
WEAKER ENERGY AND THUS LESS ACTIVITY. HAVE LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE...BUT MAINTAIN CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LESS
CHANCES ACROSS VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 442 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SO EVEN WITH
WANING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANING CAN`T RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL
ALOFT. A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FOR MOST OF US WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.

ON THURSDAY...FINALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH FAIRLY STRONG QG
FORCING FROM VORTICITY ADVECTION AND BETTER INSTABILITY FROM COLD
TEMPS ALOFT (-20C AT KMSS) BY 18Z THU.

TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH MODELS SHOWING AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE
INSTABILITY (UP TO 1500 J/KG) THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS, BUT
ALL SHOW SOME. SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FIRST IN NY IN THE MORNING
AND REGION WIDE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY
IN VT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
850 TEMPS 8-11C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE IS EXITING SO CHANCES OF PRECIP
DIMINISH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH LEAVING
US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12-13C
SHOULD GIVE US A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ` WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE AUGUST 1. SOME SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT LESS THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RELAX A BIT LATER IN
THE PERIOD WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE GREATEST DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH TIME OF MAX HEATING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WILL BE
LOWEST...WITH GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB
TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN NY THIS AFTN AND INTO CPV AND VT OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH. ANY SHOWER/STORM MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR. FOG CHANCES TONIGHT LIMITED DUE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE
INDICATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV AFTER 05Z AND MVFR AT KSLK
AFTER 08Z. EXPECT THREAT OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE THURSDAY...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS SEEING BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 8-14KTS IN THE CPV...AND VFR
UNDER 10KTS ELSEWHERE. LGT TO CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AT 6-16KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...KGM