Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 231749 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 149 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... One more day of dry weather and above normal temperatures is expected across the entire North Country today. Moisture will begin to spread from south to north across the area tonight with a few showers possible over northern New York and southern Vermont. Eventually rain will become more widespread over the area Tuesday and Tuesday night and will be heavy at times. The rain will end from west to east during the morning hours on Wednesday. Total rainfall in the 1 to 2 inch range is expected over much of the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 1043 AM EDT Monday...Overall forecast remains in good shape for today with temps well above normal for October normals. Did opt to adjust sky cover upwards for this afternoon, especially across southern Vermont where a low marine layer is working it`s way up the deeper valleys. Latest hi-res guidance shows quite the increase in 1000-850mb moisture this afternoon supporting the idea of these low clouds moving northward while spreading. Previous Discussion...Looking at one more day of dry weather today with mainly some high level clouds over the area. High temperatures will generally be in the upper 60s to middle 70s...well above normal once again for this time of year. Deeper moisture will work into the area tonight from south to north with increasing clouds and increasing precipitation chances expected...mainly over northern New York and southern Vermont. Winds will also be increasing overnight and should become gusty across northern New York with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range. Low temperatures will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 446 AM EDT Monday...Going forecast of widespread rain developing over the area Tuesday and Tuesday night looks real good. Strong south to north flow will keep precipitation in a concentrated band and with precipitable water values well over an inch...expect rain to be heavy in this band. Band becomes established over the northern Adirondacks of New York Tuesday afternoon with the band slowly moving east across Vermont Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Can see many areas picking up 1 to 2 inches of rain...but rivers are low at this time and should be able to handle the new rainfall. The Saint Lawrence Valley will only see about a half inch since the band of heavier precipitation is expected to set up east of this area. Strong southerly flow will also be moving across the area and the 30 to 40 mph wind gusts expected tonight over parts of northern New York will be shifting east into Vermont Tuesday and Tuesday night. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s and in the upper 50s to mid 60s on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 302 AM EDT Monday...Parent upper trough then swings through the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning with any lingering showers waning over time as southwesterly flow becomes re-established aloft over time. Out of respect for some global ensemble members I maintained some chance pops across eastern counties, but the overall idea will be for large-scale drying under variable cloud cover. Low temperatures generally in the 40s Wednesday night with 50s for highs on Thursday - something a bit more climatologically reasonable for late October. Then mainly dry by Thursday night into Saturday afternoon as transient high pressure skirts through the region and surface flow backs to south/southwesterly ahead of additional digging energy across the Northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes. Looking at partly cloudy skies during this period as temperatures moderate slightly into the 55 to 65 range for afternoon highs. Frontal system with accompanying upper trough then edges into the area by Saturday night into Sunday with a renewed threat of showers. Leaned more heavily toward this morning`s ECWMF solution showing a slightly slower frontal arrival as the GFS is often too progressive with northern stream systems at longer time frames. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will continue across the region through sunset, and largely prevail at most terminals through 12Z Tuesday, with the exception being KMPV where marine MVFR stratus advecting northward will build into eastern Vermont after 02Z. Elsewhere, expanding cirrus deck will just gradually lower through the night. After 12Z, low clouds shift into portions of northern New York, mainly affecting KPBG while rain shifts over KMSS and KSLK, but not eastward until closer the end of the 24hr period. Winds will continue to be increasingly gusty from the south/southeasterly in the 15-25kt range through 12Z, strengthening to 25-35kts east of KMSS thereafter. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kts. Definite RA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
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&& .MARINE... A lake wind advisory is in effect today and will continue right into Tuesday. Winds will be from the south at 15 to 25 knots today and tonight...but increase into the 20 to 30 knot range on Tuesday. Winds of this magnitude will create rather choppy conditions...especially on the northern portions of the lake... and waves will build into the 3 to 5 foot range by Tuesday. && .EQUIPMENT... KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for scheduled maintenance until further notice as technicians repaint the radome. MPV is not transmitting due to a communications outage. FAA is aware of the problem. We do not have an estimated return to service. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/Lahiff SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Lahiff MARINE...Evenson EQUIPMENT...BTV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.