Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 041921 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 321 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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AFTER A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MODERATING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 243 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES EAST. THE LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE VORT THAT IS SLIDING UP THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, AND THERE IS SOME DECENT INSTABILITY WITH THE CU FIELD THAT IS MOVING UP THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THERE IS SOME LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THAT VORTICITY MAXIMA AND GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TOWARDS SOME OF THIS INSTABILITY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SO THUNDER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR NEW YORK HOWEVER NOT FOR VERMONT. INTO THE EVENING, MOISTURE REMAINS PREVALENT HOWEVER THE ENERGY SOURCE FOR PRECIP DROPS OFF AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. GUIDANCE CAPTURES THIS FAIRLY WELL AND WITH THE TREND SHOWING UP IN THE HIRES GUIDANCE I DID GO AHEAD AND RELAX THE POPS OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS NO MENTION OF SHOWERS IN NEW YORK LATE OVERNIGHT AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND DRAGS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECT CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 8-12TS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL STAY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND THE OVERCAST SKIES. EXPECT MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY MAY. TOMORROW EXPECT FAIRLY SIMILAR TEMPERATURES CONDITIONS TO TODAY WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE +8C TO +11C RANGE. THAT PUTS THE FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH...OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP BEST DYNAMIC FORCING SOUTH OF THE REGION AS WELL AND THIS SHOULD KEEP BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT. HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THESE AREAS BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY THAT LOW WILL FINALLY GET CAUGHT IN THE FLOW AND PUSHED EASTWARD. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM OUR WEST...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS...BUT FEEL THAT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MVFR CIGS/VSBY ARE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. GENERALLY MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREENS. I CONTINUED THE IDEA OF FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS IN THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS IN THE BOTH THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS HAVE BEEN A TOUCH STRONGER THAN INITIALLY FORECAST WITH BOTH MSS(NORTHEAST) AND BTV(SOUTHEAST) IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE. THE ONLY SITE WITH LIGHT WINDS AT THE MOMENT IS SLK AND CURRENT TRENDS SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE REST OF THE SITES BETWEEN 5-10KTS. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END LATE THIS EVENING HOWEVER THE EXPECTATION IS THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL HANG AROUND BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AROUND WITH THE CLOUD DECK AT 2500-3000 FEET. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 12Z THU - 12Z FRI: MAINLY MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z FRI. 12Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS. 00Z SUN - 00Z MON: MVFR SHOWERS LIKELY. CHANCE IFR.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...DEAL/LAHIFF

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