Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 250823 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 423 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Tranquil early fall weather will persist through Monday, as a large area of Canadian high pressure crosses the region. The crisp air mass will bring patchy frost in spots this morning, and again on Sunday morning, and cool daytime temperatures with Sunday`s highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Developing south winds will allow for moderating temperatures on Monday, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 60s in most valley locations. A frontal system approaching from the west will bring our next rainfall event Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 333 AM EDT Sunday...Chilly start this morning with local readings below freezing in the Adirondacks and the colder sheltered valleys of Vermont`s Northeast Kingdom. At 07Z, temperatures ranged from 28F at KSLK, 30F at Lake Placid, and 32F at Island Pond. Frost advisory and freeze warning (Essex Co. VT) continue thru 12Z this morning. Also anticipating some patchy fog in the favored river valleys of central/ern VT...this should dissipate by 13Z or so, lasting longest in the CT river valley. Large Canadian high pressure shifts slowly ewd from sern Ontario into the North Country today, and crests over the region tonight. Looking for mostly clear skies with a dry air mass in place and large-scale subsidence. Some cyclonic flow aloft could bring a few passing clouds to far nern VT through the day, but overall will see sunny conditions. The 925-850mb temps are slightly cooler than Saturday, and as a result, anticipate aftn highs a few degrees cooler as well...generally upr 50s to lower 60s. Winds won`t be quite as strong as Saturday, but will see an increase to around 10 mph from the Northwest late morning thru afternoon. With the high pressure system overhead, better radiative cooling conditions for tonight. Expecting lows a few degrees colder...upr 30s Champlain Valley, but low-mid 30s elsewhere (and locally 27F at SLK). This will bring additional frost away from the immediate vicinity of Lake Champlain. Once we get through current frost event early this morning, will likely need additional frost/freeze highlights for Sunday night as well. Surface anticyclone shifts east of New England during Monday, and winds shift into the S-SE across the region. Should see temps rebound a bit...with aftn highs in the mid-upr 60s...except locally in the lower 60s across ern VT. Anticipate some increasing mid and upper level clouds later in the day from west to east as a large closed low crosses the central Great Lakes, and associated sfc cold front reaches far wrn NY. Frontal rain showers should hold off until Monday night. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 422 AM EDT Sunday...A cold front will move east from the Great lakes Monday night with rain showers developing over northern New York. Expecting this rain shower activity to move into Vermont mainly after 06Z Tuesday. Have gone with likely or categorical pops. Models showing mid level dry slot to move into the region early Tuesday morning over northern New York, and across Vermont Tuesday morning. Expecting rain shower activity to be over across the region by 18Z Tuesday, as mid level dry slot will be over the region. The only exception to this will be over the Saint Lawrence valley where models hinting at moisture moving northeast from Lake Ontario, so have kept in slight chance pops for showers there. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 422 AM EDT Sunday...Models have a closed upper low over the western Great Lakes Tuesday night, but GFS and ECMWF have vastly different solutions as to the forecast track of this upper closed low through Saturday. This leads to a rather low confidence forecast, especially from Thursday through Saturday. Have gone with a dry forecast across the region Tuesday night through Wednesday night, as GFS and ECMWF in fairly good agreement on this. ECMWF takes this closed upper low over the western Great Lakes and moves it southward to the southern Appalachians and then retrogrades it back to the western Ohio valley by early Friday night, as an upper ridge builds northwest from the Atlantic across New England and northern New York. The GFS model takes this upper low over the western Great Lakes Tuesday night and moves it southeast across the Ohio valley and into southern New England by early Friday night. The ECMWF suggests a mainly dry forecast Thursday and Friday across the region, while the GFS model hints at a showery forecast from Thursday through Saturday. Have opted to stay with the superblend pops from Thursday through Saturday and have low chance pops for showers during this period. Given the significant differences in the location of the closed upper low during the period from the ECMWF and GFS models, forecaster confidence is low through the long term period. && .AVIATION /08Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... Through 06Z Monday...Mainly VFR/SKC, except local LIFR in fog at SLK/MPV early this morning through 12-13Z. Winds will remain light overnight, and pick up from the northwest around 10 knots after 14z Sunday and persist thru the remainder of the daylight hrs. Light and variable winds return after 00Z Monday. Outlook 00z Monday through Thursday... 06z Mon - 00z Tue: Mainly VFR. Overnight IFR with patchy fog possible. 00z Tue - 00z Wed: VFR trending to a mix of VFR/MVFR in scattered showers. 00z Wed - 00z Fri: Mainly VFR with isolated MVFR cigs. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ004. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ003-006>008- 010>012-016>019. NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ026-027- 029>031-034-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...Banacos

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