-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 082028
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
328 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THIS WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 330 PM EST SATURDAY...THE NEAR TERM CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS/FLURRIES AND IMPACTS ON TEMPS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK
5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT MOVING ACRS OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS
AFTN...WHILE UPSTREAM SUBSIDENCE IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS DRYING ALOFT AND BUILDING SFC HIGH PRES
SHOULD RESULT IN CLRING SKIES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS CONT
SHOW SOME LLVL RH BTWN SFC AND 800MB...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING...ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. LOCAL 4KM COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY SHOWS ON AND OFF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT THINK THIS MAYBE
OVERDONE...GIVEN UPSTREAM DRYING AND LATEST SATL TRENDS. WL
MENTION CHC POPS MTNS WITH NO ANTICIPATED ACCUMULATION. TEMPS WL
BE TRICKY AND HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUDS...THINKING COLDEST VALUES
WL BE NORTHERN SLV/DACKS WITH READINGS -5F TO +5F...WITH +5F TO
15F ELSEWHERE ACRS MOST OF VT...INCLUDING THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
THESE TEMPS COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER...IF MORE CLRING
DEVELOPS.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 PM EST SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM JET WITH LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WL RESULT IN SEVERAL LIGHT SNOW EVENTS WITH
TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. SFC HIGH
PRES OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WL PRODUCE MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH COOL
TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BLW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -14C AND -16C...WITH SUN AND SOME MIXING
MAY RESULT IN A FEW READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S ACRS THE WARMER
VALLEYS/UHI AREAS. 1000 TO 500MB RH QUICKLY SPREADS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACRS OUR CWA AFT 18Z SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH INCREASED LIFT FROM MID LVL
WAA AND SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FROM SEVERAL EMBEDDED 5H VORTS
WL PRODUCE A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE
RH PROFILES THRU THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AND SOME WEAK UVVS BTWN
875MB AND 700MB...RESULTING IN GOOD FLAKE SIZE AND 25 TO 1 OR SO
SNOW RATIOS. WL MENTION LIKELY/CAT POPS WITH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
VALLEYS AND 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE MTNS BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY.
FIRST SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA BY 15Z MONDAY...AS NEXT
WAA LIFT AND WEAK SFC LOW PRES ARRIVES BY 00Z TUES. THIS WL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BTWN SFC AND 850MB
AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS WL RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE CPV AND
TEMPS WARMING OVERNIGHT. THE SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES WL
RESULT IN LOWER SNOW RATIOS AROUND 15 TO 1...BUT GIVEN SLIGHTLY
BETTER RH PROFILES AND LIFT...ANOTHER DUSTING TO 1 INCHES IS
LIKELY VALLEYS TO 1 TO 4 INCHES IN THE MTNS. SNOWFALL/QPF WL BE
FINE TUNED AS EVENTS GET CLOSER AND WE CAN USE HI RESOLUTION
MODELS TO BETTER RESOLVE TRRN IMPACTS. TEMPS WL CONT TO BE BLW
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S
OVERNIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ON MONDAY. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEVELOPING PRECIP. EXPECTING LOWS TO RANGE
FROM THE L20S NEK/EASTERN VT TO L30S CPV.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 406 AM EST SATURDAY...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...GFS AND CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL DO NOT PHASE THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS AND BOTH TAKE A SURFACE LOW MOVING
OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND TAKE IT WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK
(40N 70W) WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE REGION WOULD
REMAIN MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF MODEL
TAKES MOISTURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS IT INTO THE REGION
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING
SNOW INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AT THIS TIME. THUS...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION.
LOWEST CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED AT BTV/SLK/MPV THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...WITH
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR ALL SITES BY
AROUND 00Z. CLOUDS REMAIN OVER FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BUT CIGS MOSTLY VFR. WINDS NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTHERLY TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUNDAY THRU 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 12Z THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN SNOW.

12Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...RJS