Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBTV 260754
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
354 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017
A low pressure system off the North Carolina coast will move
slowly northeast through Wednesday. This will keep quite a bit
of moisture over the area tonight through Wednesday morning with
occasional light rain expected. Improving conditions develop
Wednesday afternoon and especially into Thursday as a ridge of
high pressure moves into the region. Above normal temperatures
are expected Wednesday and especially on Thursday with highs in
the 70s to around 80.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 203 AM EDT Wednesday...Current forecast in good shape, so
no changes have been made.
Previous discussion from 1029 PM EDT Tuesday...overall forecast
in good shape. Areal coverage of light rain expanding just to
our south and working its way north...which is what the current
forecast has. Made just a few minor tweaks to temperatures and
dew points...otherwise no other changes needed at this time.
On Wednesday...the upper low to our south that has been bringing
the moisture up into our region moves east and takes a bulk of
the precipitation with it. Improving conditions are expected
with drier weather moving in and some decrease in cloud cover.
Highs should generally be in the 60s to around 70.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 354 AM EDT Wednesday...Frontal boundary extending from
closed low around James Bay will moves across the North Country
Thursday night through early Friday. Even though the front will
exit east on Friday, vorticity at 500mb will continue to affect
the region with clouds. Temperatures not as warm with generally
70s in the Champlain Valley, eastwards. 60s to the west.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 354 AM EDT Wednesday...As ridge axis sets up near
Bermuda, several pieces of vorticity will move over the
Northeast, resulting in multiple days of chances of rain
showers. Models continue to show brief period of dry weather
over the North Country Saturday night into Sunday before
strengthening low pressure system brings WAA showers Sunday
night. Expect frontal boundary associated with the stacked low
to affect the region Monday night. With PWATS over 1.5 inches,
still looking at periods of heavier rain along with gusty winds
due 850mb jet of 40-50 kts or more jet. GFS continues to show
500-1000J/kg MUCAPE in the St Lawrence Valley on Monday, which
could help initiate convection. Precipitation chances continue
on Tuesday as the base of the mid-level trough moves over the
region. Precip begins to taper off late Tuesday night into
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Mainly VFR in light rain showers across
the region as of 06Z Wednesday, with some local pockets of
IFR/MVFR in fog and mist. Expecting most of the light rain
shower activity will come to an end by 18Z Wednesday, as an
upper ridge builds into the region this afternoon.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.