Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 231912 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 312 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST BY SUNDAY AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE CONSIDERABLY. A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1242 PM EDT SATURDAY...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO FORECAST AREA...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. AFTER A CHILLY START...TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AT MIDDAY. EXPECTED HIGHS STILL IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ALONG WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WINDS A BIT BRISK AT TIMES FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE WITH WINDS TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY OVER TIME TONIGHT. WITH STEADY HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MILDER AND WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF SEASONABLE LATE MAY VALUES IN MOST SPOTS (40S). THERE COULD BE SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME, ESPECIALLY LATER AT NIGHT AS DEEPENING WARM THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES BEGIN ALOFT. BY SUNDAY DEEPENING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE CONSIDERABLY WITH MOST SPOTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON AND WASH OUT BY EARLY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER OR TWO IN THE 3-8 PM TIME FRAME ACROSS NC/NE VT. NOMINAL BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AND LOWER-END SREF CALIBRATED THUNDER PERCENTAGES AROUND 20 PERCENT SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THIS AREA AS WELL, BUT WITH SUCH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE LOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THEN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING BY LATER AT NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER FAR SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S IN MOST SPOTS. AS WE PROGRESS INTO MONDAY SFC WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY WHERE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN ARE EVIDENT. NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS WITH SOME OF OUR EASTERN VERMONT COUNTIES LIKELY REMAINING DRY ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY WITH SHARP WARMING ALOFT AT ODDS WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS. FOR NOW HAVE ADVERTISED AN IDEA CLOSER TO LATEST SREF BIAS-CORRECTED MEANS SHOWING COOLEST READINGS NORTH AND EAST (L-M 70S) AND WARMER SOUTH AND WEST (UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S) WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 312 PM EDT SATURDAY...UNSETTLED PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD, PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, ESPECIALLY AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. OVERALL SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES, RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS EVERYDAY WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS LOOK TO EXCEED 1.5 INCHES MULTIPLE DAYS NEXT WEEK, SO ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PROVIDE SOME MODERATE DOWNPOURS. 925MB TEMPS RANGE BETWEEN 18C AND 21C DURING THIS PERIOD, SUPPORTING MAX TEMPERATURES FROM M70S-M80S, WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. BUT CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT TEMPERATURES. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE M50S-M60S.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. GUSTY WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME 10KTS OR LESS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, WITH EXCEPTION OF DRAINAGE WINDS AT KRUT OF 14006KT. THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT, DECK OF MID LEVEL CIGS WITH SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. SUNDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THINNING CLOUDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 8-12KTS AND GUSTS DEVELOPING 15-25KTS. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SCT SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON. 12Z MONDAY - ...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY (15 TO 25%) ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WILL EXACERBATE THESE CONDITIONS TODAY. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START TODAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM FIRE WEATHER...JMG

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