Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 261910 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 310 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... We will have a dry start to the day today...but scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. An even greater likelihood of showers and thunderstorms is expected on Tuesday. Temperatures will be several degrees below normal both today and Tuesday. The threat of showers will continue into Wednesday...but then a change will take place to a warming trend starting Thursday and continuing through the weekend. However...this pattern will also be conducive to more widespread showers and thunderstorms across the entire area during this period. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1006 AM EDT Monday...Minor update to tweak sky cover a bit into the late morning and afternoon hours. This would suggest slightly higher coverage of clouds across southwestern portions of the forecast area today as weak trough line lifts northward, sparking scattered garden-variety convection into the afternoon and early evening hours. Rest of forecast remains on track. Have a great day. Previous Discussion... Noticeable differences standout when comparing today to yesterday with respect to the convective potential. Today we are lacking the dynamic support as the shortwave trough that enhanced convection yesterday is moving northeast of the region this morning. No well defined dynamic support is expected across the area today. Cooler temperatures today will not allow for as much instability that developed yesterday and enhanced convection. Enough instability will develop to support convection...mainly scattered showers with only isolated thunderstorms. Deep layer shear has shifted just a bit to our south today versus being right over our area today. As a result...only looking at isolated to scattered showers today along with a few thunderstorms. Synoptic scale features and thermodynamic profiles do not support any storms becoming organized today. Highs today will only be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Tonight...the showers and isolated storms lift northeast and most of the activity should be done by midnight. Lows will generally be in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Tuesday...Well defined shortwave trough moves out of the eastern Great Lakes and provide sufficient dynamic support for the development of showers and some thunderstorms. Colder air aloft will move into the region and despite highs only in the mid 60s to lower 70s...much like today...destabilization will occur and sufficient instability should develop for convection as 850-500 millibar lapse rates become dry adiabatic. These two elements should be enough to create more widespread showers than today and the idea of many areas having likely precipitation chances looks real good. If any storms do get organized on Tuesday...could see some small hail with them as wet bulb zero values will be on the lower side...much like on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 247 PM EDT Monday...Wednesday looks to be a relative minimum in the convective activity for the week. Northwest flow aloft in the wake of the shortwave should dry things out despite a fair amount of cold air aloft. There will be some instability developing in the afternoon but areal coverage should remain fairly low. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 247 PM EDT Monday...Thursday will begin a stretch of active weather through the end of the week. A wave along a frontal boundary will travel north of the border Thursday through thursday night with a boundary stretched out east to west. Showers and thunderstorms will develop to the west of the area in the lower great lakes and southern Ontario and move east along the boundary. Instability progged to be meager Thursday and thursday night so overall thunder chances area fairly low. Instability increases Friday so increased thunder chances Friday and Friday night. Southwesterly flow will continue to transport more moisture rich air into the region Friday and Saturday. Available instability progged to increase with the moisture plume moving into the area, but deep layer shear is meager at this point. PWAT values by Saturday way back up into the 1.50-2.00" range and heavy rainfall is definitely a concern. The rainfall of the last week, combined with whatever falls Thursday could set the stage for a flash flood event Saturday. Amount and location of Thursday`s rainfall will set the antecedent conditions for any potential flooding Saturday. Still quite far out in the forecast, but definitely bears watching. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR with SCT/BKN cigs in the 040-080 AGL range through 12Z Tuesday under light south to southwesterly flow. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms to affect terminals in the 18-04Z time frame this afternoon/evening, but most of the period should remain dry. KBTV threat the highest in the 22-01Z time frame. Overnight any lingering showers to end leaving mainly VFR. Some brief and patchy MVFR cigs in the 015 AGL range possible at KMPV and KSLK from 09-12Z but confidence low. After 12Z Tuesday more robust energy pushing into the area aloft will spark better coverage of showers/sct storms. Highest coverage initially at KSLK/KMSS from 14Z onward where MVFR will be offered. Further east shower/storm probabilities increasing by 18Z but covered with just VCSH at this point given timing uncertainty. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Thursday: VFR/MVFR. Chance RA...Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely RA...Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/JMG SHORT TERM...Manning LONG TERM...Manning AVIATION...JMG

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