Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281140 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 640 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL THEN DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 635 AM EST FRIDAY...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK HOWEVER. CLEARING SKIES HAVE MOVED INTO SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. EXPECT THIS IMPROVEMENT TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. SNOW WILL LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS DUE NORTHWEST 850 MB FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. THESE SAME WINDS COUPLED WITH WARM LAKE WATERS AND BLOCKED FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPES THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. WITH DEPARTURE OF TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST FROM GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS COMING TO AN END. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 425 AM EST FRIDAY..RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH RECENT SNOWS...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY MORNING HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SO MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGING ONE. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE MERCURY DIP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15F...AND WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SUBZERO READINGS EAST OF THE GREENS. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT DUE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT. PROBLEM BECOMES PRECIPITATION TYPE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WHEN MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH WARMING IN MID LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WARM ENOUGH IN LOW LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS IN SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR ICE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY STILL ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. TEMPS WILL NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE CLOUDS AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S. ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ON BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +4C...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...DESPITE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 349 AM EST FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO AGREEMENT ON FROPA TIMING INDICATING FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE BTV CWA BY 18Z MONDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AT THE TAIL END OF THE PRECIP MID-DAY MONDAY. WITH THE EARLY FROPA...EXPECT HIGHS TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPS FALLING FROM THE 40S MORNING TO 30S AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS MONDAY NIGHT AND ONLY RISING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AS WELL BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE SURFACE TO MID- LEVEL FLOW TURN SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE AND AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TO OUR WEST. REMNANT MOISTURE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY PUSHES NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WITH LOW/MID LEVEL ASCENT BEING ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH SO THINK A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIKELY. LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD THURSDAY CENTERING OVER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HAS PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH CIGS VARYING FROM MVFR TO VFR AND VSBY FROM MVFR TO IFR. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SNOWS LIFTING OUT OF KMSS/KRUT AND WILL BE EAST OF KSLK WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. SLIGHT DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW AT KPBG WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THERE...BUT FOR KBTV AND KMPV IFR VSBY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS VFR BY 12-13Z. AFTER 13Z...VSBY IS VFR AND ANY MVFR CIGS TREND TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...SCT-BKN VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z SUNDAY - 18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...THEN MVFR/IFR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. 18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS TREND BACK TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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