Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 021857 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 257 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WARM FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1233 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS. A BIT MORE IN WAY OF STRATOCU FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH JUST THE SLIGHT RISK FOR A POPUP SHOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT. STILL LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 434 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AS ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...AND FROM BTV NORTH AND WEST IN NRN VT. THE SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO 0C TO -2C WITH A DECENT H850 LLJ SEGMENT OF 30-40 KTS PRIOR TO 12Z MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MON-MON NIGHT...ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA IN DAY 2 OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES BTWN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A LATER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM VERTICAL BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS INCREASING INTO M50S TO L60S. THE GFS HAS H850-500 LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS AND OR LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINES OR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF ENOUGH BUOYANCY EXISTS/SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.66" AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POPS WERE KEPT IN THE HIGH CHC/LIKELY VALUES MONDAY PM INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M70S TO M80S FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FOR TUESDAY. TUE-TUE NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE TROUGH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUE NIGHT. TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE MID WEEK. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START ACTIVE AS LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER QUEBEC, BRINGING A FEW SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OVERALL DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE AND SOME SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW THIS RIDGING KEEPS A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION... THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 5-10KTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TO 15-20KTS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. KPBG WILL EXPERIENCE SOME ONSHORE FLOW WITH WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY 150-170. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CIGS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN 4-10KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SW. REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO GEORGIAN BAY MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO KMSS AROUND 06Z. APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS BETWEEN 15Z-18Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AND -SHRA AT KSLK AND KMSS RESPECTIVELY. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WILL BRING LLWS TO KMSS AND KSLK STARTING BETWEEN 05Z-09Z OUT OF THE SW AT 40-45KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ALL TERMINALS EXPERIENCING SOUTH TO SW 10-20KTS GUSTS 20-30KTS. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND INCREASE, BUT EXPECTED TO STAY VFR MONDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE. 12Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS. 12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .MARINE...
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A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS FROM 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE BROAD LAKE AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO. PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM MARINE...MUCCILLI EQUIPMENT...JMG

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