Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KBTV 290231
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1031 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016
Cold front remains on the edge of the international border and
will slowly track southward this evening and tonight. Ongoing
showers and thunderstorms will die down following sunset, by about
9 pm. A few showers are possible again on Friday across South-
Central Vermont as the low-level frontal zone continues to shift
southward into southern New England. Cooler and drier air will
filter in across Northern sections for Friday and Saturday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 1024 PM EDT Thursday...Convection has dissipated leaving
broken to overcast sky cover and temperatures ranging from mid 60s
to low 70s and dewpoints mostly in the mid 60s. Drier air is oh so
close but remains north of the border. Some observation sites
already beginning to fog in, with visbilities dropping to 1/2 mile
at Plattsburgh and Morrisville VT, and 3/4 mi at Montpelier.
Status quo forecast for the rest of the night with clouds and patchy
fog. Temperatures to fall a few more degrees but limited by
dewpoints. Adjusted hourly temps to match obs but left forecast
mins alone. Biggest change was to QPF on Friday, now appears that
better dynamics are further south so reduced our precip amount
forecast. Precip chance forecast remains the same, reaching likely
around midday Friday.
On Friday a low pressure system off the coast of NJ and NY will
track Northeastward toward Cape Cod. There will be some heavier
rain with this feature well to our Southeast, but we could have
some showers across our Southeastern zones, mainly Southern
Vermont. High temperatures on Friday will generally be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.
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.SHORT TERM /6 PM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 430 PM EDT Thursday...Any lingering precipitation will come to
an end Friday evening. Drier and cooler weather will be the main
story for Friday night through Saturday night as a ridge of high
pressure builds over the area. Temperatures will be very near to
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 415 PM EDT Thursday...Ridge of surface high pressure slides
east as a broad mid level trough brings clouds and chance for
showers into the North Country from the South. Models disagree on
how far north the precipitation will reach, therefore kept POPS at
chance. The main axis of the aforementioned trough will moves
through the region on Monday, keeping a chance of showers before
exiting east Monday night. This will be followed by ridging and
dry weather through Wednesday night. The next chance for
precipitation will be Thursday into Friday with the approach of
another mid level trough.
Temperatures will start near normal with a warming trend throughout
.AVIATION /03Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 00Z Saturday...VFR conditions this evening will likely
deteriorate with patchy fog development in moist atmosphere and
wet ground from todays showers/thunderstorms. Patchy fog focused
around the 06-12Z Friday period. Cloud cover will make locations
of fog development hit or miss, but greatest potential at KMSS, KSLK
After 12z/13z Friday, expect VFR conditions with few showers
possible at KRUT and KMPV during the day. Winds will pick up out
of the North at all TAF sites at 6-12kts.
Outlook 00z Saturday through Tuesday...
00Z Sat - 00Z Sun...Mainly VFR under ridge of high pressure.
Possible MVFR/IFR fog at KSLK/KMPV overnight.
00Z Sun - 00Z Tue...Chance for showers on Sunday and Monday with
isolated -TSRA possible mainly across Southern sections.
00Z Tue onward...VFR under high pressure.