Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 282031 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 431 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER COOLER WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 430 PM EDT THURSDAY...DRIER WEATHER MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S AND 50S OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER SOAKING RAINS OF THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WITH WINDS FALLING TO CALM AND SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 430 PM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED DOWN WITH THIS FEATURE AND BRING THE FRONT THROUGH AFTER 00Z SUNDAY NOW. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. PWATS WILL BE HIGH AS A FEED OFF THE GULF STREAMS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONLY MODEST LAPSE RATES THOUGH...PRETTY WEAK INSTABILITY...THOUGH SOME CAPE DOES SHOW UP ON THE SREF AND NAM. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF PASSES WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...FEEL STRONGER STORMS MAY COINCIDE AND REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS THE SAME FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTERS LINE OF THINKING FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE LINE OF SHOWERS FROM THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SO THERE WILL ONLY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF VERMONT AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ALIGNED IN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL VERMONT. NEARLY ALL THE INSTABILITY WILL BE GONE AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABILIZED BEHIND THE FRONT SO THE DECENT SHEAR OVER CANADA WILL ALL BE WELL NORTH OF ANY INSTABILITY. AFTER THE LINGERING SHOWERS PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST REGION RESULTING IN DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPS TO SEE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE 60S AND BY WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 80S IN THE VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FROST AS TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S TO UPPER 30S. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST DOESN`T INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF FROST BECAUSE TEMPS WILL HOVER ABOVE 36 DEGREES ON MONDAY. FROM THERE WE WILL SEE THE GRADUAL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THE BIGGEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER MPV AND RUT THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR MPV/RUT WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTING. OTHERWISE...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT TOWARD SUNSET. PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK AND MAYBE RUTLAND... ESPECIALLY WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM TODAY. SOIL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SATURATED ENOUGH THAT WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT LIGHT FOG COULD DEVELOP. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK AND RUTLAND ON SATURDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...DEAL

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