Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 020748 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 348 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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VARIABLE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA. A STRONG EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT WILL SWING INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY BRINGING A WIDESPREAD AND WELCOMED SOAKING RAINFALL. BEHIND THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY OCTOBER VALUES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 348 AM EDT THURSDAY...A BURDENSOME...ALBEIT GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER FORECAST ON TAP AGAIN TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS OUR AREA WHILE H5 UPPER LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. MOST PROBLEMATIC WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVERALL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS...AND DEGREE TO WHICH THEY BURN OFF THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY GOVERN TEMPORAL/SPATIAL TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES. AS EARLY FALL SUN ANGLE CONTINUES TO LESSEN DAY BY DAY...WE ARE FINDING IT INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO BURN OFF OUR LOW STRATUS...CASE IN POINT YESTERDAY. USED A BLEND OF 925-850 MB AND/OR 850 MB MODEL BLENDED RH PROGS WHICH SUGGEST VARIABLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY THIN TO PC IN MOST AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...I MUST ADMIT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT THAT ALL AREAS WILL SEE CLEARING...ESPECIALLY WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PBL. INDEED...LOOKING AT MIDDAY SOUNDINGS YOU RARELY SEE SUCH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE...EVEN BY JULY STANDARDS. IN FACT...RAP/NAM/GFS PROFILES ALL SHOW VALUES AT 10 KTS OR LESS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE 20 KFT LEVEL AT SOME POINT THROUGH THE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS OUR AREA. SO SAFE TO SAY AIRMASS CHANGE IS NOT EXPECTED. PCPN CHANCES ESSENTIALLY ZERO NORTH OF RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES...PERHAPS A DEPARTING SPRINKLE/VERY LIGHT SHOWER FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING...THAT WOULD BE ABOUT IT. TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF AVAILABLE RAW MODEL DATASETS...SUGGESTING MAX VALUES RANGING THROUGH THE 60S...PERHAPS A SPOT 70 HERE OR THERE IN AREAS OF THE ST LAWRENCE/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHICH SEE MORE SUN TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 348 AM EDT THURSDAY...PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN RETURN (OR CONTINUE) TONIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND LINGERING MOISTURE IS ADVECTED BACK NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. DID TREND ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC SIDE SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...THOUGH THIS COULD BE WISHFUL THINKING IF YOU BELIEVE SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS LITERAL. LOW TEMPERATURES 46 TO 54...COOLEST EAST WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY 65 TO 73...MILDEST WEST. POPS NIL. BY FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG EARLY SEASON UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES STATES. SKIES TRENDING CLR/PC IN MOST SPOTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FRONTAL ZONE DRAWS CLOSER WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN PUSHING INTO THE SLV AFTER 4 AM OR SO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN A TAD MILDER THAN PRIOR NIGHTS BY A FEW DEGREES...MAINLY 50S. ON SATURDAY AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WITH A WIDESPREAD AND WELCOMED RAINFALL EXPECTED. MODEL BLENDED QPF SUGGEST AREAL AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCH AREA WIDE. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS AND LIKELY THE HEAVIEST SINCE MID AUGUST. GIVEN SUCH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HYDRO CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL. SOME GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...BUT LATEST NAM12 925 WIND PROGS SUGGEST HIGHER...MORE PROBLEMATIC GUSTS ARE LESS LIKELY THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS. AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE EVENT LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY...HIGHER RES WRF DATA MAY ADD MORE INSIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER GIVEN CLOUDS/PCPN...MAINLY UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...PERHAPS A FEW MID 60S FAR EAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 331 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE MID-TROPOSPHERIC REGIME CHANGE TOWARD BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BE UNDERWAY TO OPEN THE PERIOD. CENTER OF LARGE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION. THUS...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE IN WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RESULT IN AN INCREASING UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PINWHEEL AROUND LONGWAVE TROUGH/LOW. THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BENEFIT FROM GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 00Z/02 GLOBAL MODELS WITH PRIMARY DIFFERENCES BEING IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE PUSHING ACROSS VT SAT NIGHT. LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL POPS FOR EASTERN VT/NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH SHARPER TAPER DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PRECEDE THE FRONT...WITH PROGGED GFS PWS OF 1.5" BEING ABOUT 200% OF NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. ONE INTERESTING ASPECT INHERENT IN TODAY`S GFS/EC AND NAM/WRF GUIDANCE IS A SECONDARY WAVE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ALONG FRONT NEAR NYC AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO NH/ME. FEATURE IS STRONGEST IN THE NAM/WRF...BUT MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASE IN FORECAST QPF ACROSS NORTHEAST VT/GREENS. CURIOUS TO SEE IF THAT UNFOLDS AS PROGGED. QPF FROM THIS EVENT PROBABLY MORE BENEFICIAL GIVEN HOW DRY IT`S BEEN. A PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY. HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT BELTS IN NORTHERN NY BUT LARGELY DRY ELSEWHERE. FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT THEN SKIRTS ACROSS NORTHERN NY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS THERE BUT MOSTLY DRY FOR VT. AS LONGWAVE TROUGH RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY TUESDAY...A BETTER-DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVES UP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH POPS TRENDING TOWARD HIGH CHANCE BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE PERIOD START OFF A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (LOWER 60S) BUT TRENDING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...ANOTHER VERY CHALLENGING 6-12 HR AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD. WITH EXCEPTION FOR MSS...CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS TAFS ONCE AGAIN MOSTLY A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES - NOT REALLY FITTING ANY COHERENT PATTERN. OVERALL REGIME REMAINS SIMILAR TO PRIOR NIGHTS WITH LIGHT SFC FLOW AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS. EXPECT CEILINGS TO ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR RANGE AT MOST SITES EXCEPT FOR MSS...THOUGH USED TEMPOS AS CATEGORIES UNLIKELY TO BE PERSISTENT AT ANY ONE SITE. AREAS OF MIST WILL BE AROUND AS WELL. LIGHT WINDS. FOR THURSDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW INVERSION BREAKING BY 13-14Z SO WOULD EXPECT ANY LOW CEIILNGS TO BE LIFTING BY THAT POINT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARD VFR ANTICIPATED AS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH EXITS AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. AREAS OF OVERNIGHT MIST TO DEVELOP VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AT SLK AND MPV...TOWARD EVENTUAL FOG AT THESE SAME LOCATIONS AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FOG/BR POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MPV. A STRONG COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH AREAS OF LLVL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LINGER AT SLK/MPV ON SUNDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...LOCONTO AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO

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