Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 241931 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 331 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A quiet evening with mostly clear skies. Low pressure in the Carolinas will bring showers to all the north country on Tuesday and mainly eastern Vermont on Wednesday. Drier and warmer on Thursday with a chance of showers possibly returning on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 326 PM EDT Monday...High pressure to our north dropped a backdoor cold front earlier today with cooler air across most of the region, especially in the Champlain Valley where a north wind and cold lake temperatures only allowed temperatures to reach near 50 degrees. Clear skies across the region going into this evening with clouds lurking across Southern New england as the closed low slowly meanders north through early Wednesday then eastward. Return moist flow from High pressure to our north and the surface low will bring in showers to the region in a few waves on Tuesday. It will be a cool, damp raw especially across eastern and southern VT with a good easterly maritime flow. There will be a first wave of scattered light showers with the initial first surge of moisture and then as we get caught into the inverted trof from the coastal low a bit more numerous or pronounce showers Tuesday night. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 359 AM EDT Monday...Surface/Stacked low eventually departs with best chance of showers across central-eastern VT during Wednesday, decreasing in coverage during Wednesday. Slow clearing from west to east Wednesday night, likely holding off til Thursday for much of VT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 331 PM EDT Monday...Rain showers associated with coastal low pressure will exit east and strong southerly flow will affect the North Country Thursday. Some lingering clouds may limit warming over eastern Vermont, but generally expect temperatures in the 70s and in the mid 70s to around 80 in the St Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. Cooling trend starts with the next chance for rain late Thursday night into early Friday as surface low pressure moves from the central Great Lakes region northwestward towards James Bay Friday morning. Possible cold front or pre-frontal trough associated with this system could bring convective activity on Friday. Lots of disparity amongst model guidance with this system and further into the weekend. Commonalities exist with blocking Bermuda high developing at the surface, which brings a moisture plume from the Gulf toward the Northeast. This could bring another chance for precip on Saturday as the GFS and ECMWF have energy at 500mb moving from SW towards southern Quebec. This is reflected at the surface as a cold front with northerly flow setting up in the front`s wake. On Sunday, Canadian high pressure centered around James Bay will retreat north and east as strengthening closed surface low moves up the Mississippi Valley reaching the Great Lakes by Monday morning. A warm front ahead of the low looks to bring more showers late Sunday. GFS and ECMWF in better agreement with regards to this system. Still differences on track, strength, etc. Overall expect this system to be capable of producing heavy rainfall as moisture from the Gulf rides up the ahead of the cold front and strong winds possible from tight pressure gradient and strengthening of low. The surface low pressure center looks to track to our north and west towards Hudsons Bay sometime on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday...Mainly SKC through 04z then gradual increase in clouds from south to north with slowly approaching closed low. Scattered showers and cigs AOB 060 enter 10-12z along MA-VT border and northern border around 16z. Primarily VFR through period with some MVFR aft 15z at KRUT and possibly KSLK. Primarily NNE winds aob 10 kts today...largely light overnight with KRUT witnessing SE 5-7 kts aft 03z then by 10-12z SE winds around 10 kts for all. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos/SLW SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...SLW

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