Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 290231 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1031 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front remains on the edge of the international border and will slowly track southward this evening and tonight. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will die down following sunset, by about 9 pm. A few showers are possible again on Friday across South- Central Vermont as the low-level frontal zone continues to shift southward into southern New England. Cooler and drier air will filter in across Northern sections for Friday and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY EVENING/...
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As of 1024 PM EDT Thursday...Convection has dissipated leaving broken to overcast sky cover and temperatures ranging from mid 60s to low 70s and dewpoints mostly in the mid 60s. Drier air is oh so close but remains north of the border. Some observation sites already beginning to fog in, with visbilities dropping to 1/2 mile at Plattsburgh and Morrisville VT, and 3/4 mi at Montpelier. Status quo forecast for the rest of the night with clouds and patchy fog. Temperatures to fall a few more degrees but limited by dewpoints. Adjusted hourly temps to match obs but left forecast mins alone. Biggest change was to QPF on Friday, now appears that better dynamics are further south so reduced our precip amount forecast. Precip chance forecast remains the same, reaching likely around midday Friday. On Friday a low pressure system off the coast of NJ and NY will track Northeastward toward Cape Cod. There will be some heavier rain with this feature well to our Southeast, but we could have some showers across our Southeastern zones, mainly Southern Vermont. High temperatures on Friday will generally be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 430 PM EDT Thursday...Any lingering precipitation will come to an end Friday evening. Drier and cooler weather will be the main story for Friday night through Saturday night as a ridge of high pressure builds over the area. Temperatures will be very near to seasonal normals. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 415 PM EDT Thursday...Ridge of surface high pressure slides east as a broad mid level trough brings clouds and chance for showers into the North Country from the South. Models disagree on how far north the precipitation will reach, therefore kept POPS at chance. The main axis of the aforementioned trough will moves through the region on Monday, keeping a chance of showers before exiting east Monday night. This will be followed by ridging and dry weather through Wednesday night. The next chance for precipitation will be Thursday into Friday with the approach of another mid level trough. Temperatures will start near normal with a warming trend throughout the week. && .AVIATION /03Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Through 00Z Saturday...VFR conditions this evening will likely deteriorate with patchy fog development in moist atmosphere and wet ground from todays showers/thunderstorms. Patchy fog focused around the 06-12Z Friday period. Cloud cover will make locations of fog development hit or miss, but greatest potential at KMSS, KSLK and KMPV. After 12z/13z Friday, expect VFR conditions with few showers possible at KRUT and KMPV during the day. Winds will pick up out of the North at all TAF sites at 6-12kts. Outlook 00z Saturday through Tuesday... 00Z Sat - 00Z Sun...Mainly VFR under ridge of high pressure. Possible MVFR/IFR fog at KSLK/KMPV overnight. 00Z Sun - 00Z Tue...Chance for showers on Sunday and Monday with isolated -TSRA possible mainly across Southern sections. 00Z Tue onward...VFR under high pressure. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles/Hanson SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM

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