Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 041827 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 227 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY, THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY DAY TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1029 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH PRECIP STARTING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. MINOR UPDATES WERE DONE TO THE FORECAST TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK FOR TODAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SOME SPOTTY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON HOW FAR NORTH SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TODAY, WITH THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE STILL TARGETING NORTHERN NEW YORK AND POINTS SOUTHEASTWARD. LATEST WATER VAPOR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS THE DIGGING/DEEPENING TROUGH WILL TURN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY, TAPPING INTO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ALSO OF NOTE ON CURRENT UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND RADAR IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER NOCTURNAL CONVECTION/LIGHTNING MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INTO INDIANA. SOME OF THIS INSTABILITY COULD MAKE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, SO HAVE FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS FORECASTERS LEAD AND MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN DACKS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE MOVE ON INTO TONIGHT, WHILE WE`LL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, FORCING WILL BE THE MISSING INGREDIENT TO KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF AND SHIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE TENN`S/KENTUCKY BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING. I`LL HANG ON TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS, IT`LL BE ANOTHER TRICKY MAXT FORECAST FOR TODAY, MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. BACKWARD TRAJECTORIES AT BOTH 10M AND 500M SHOW OUR SOURCE AIR COMES FROM COASTAL NH/ME WHERE TEMPS YESTERDAY WERE MUCH LIKE HERE IN THE 40S AND 50S. SURFACE FLOW DOES TURN A LITTLE MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY SO I THINK WE`LL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND I DON`T THINK WE`LL GO MUCH HIGHER THAN THE LOW 50S EAST, TO UPPER 50S WEST. LIGHT FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP TONIGHT`S TEMPS MILD AS WELL, THOUGH PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE LOW/MID 40S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH...OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP BEST DYNAMIC FORCING SOUTH OF THE REGION AS WELL AND THIS SHOULD KEEP BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT. HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THESE AREAS BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY THAT LOW WILL FINALLY GET CAUGHT IN THE FLOW AND PUSHED EASTWARD. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM OUR WEST...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS...BUT FEEL THAT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MAIN IMPACTS BEING MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE STRUGGLING WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND FORECAST FOR LOW CEILINGS. HAVE OFFERED MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING, WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS LOWERING THIS AFTERNOON TO MVFR AREA-WIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING GENERALLY TREND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS, EXCEPT AT KMSS NORTHEASTERLIES ARE EXPECTED. OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 12Z THU - 12Z FRI: MAINLY MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z FRI. 12Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS. 00Z SUN - 00Z MON: MVFR SHOWERS LIKELY. CHANCE IFR. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 806 PM EDT TUESDAY...DUE TO A TELEPHONE LINE ISSUE...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS) AT THE PLATTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KPBG) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT OBSERVATIONS TO THE REST OF THE WORLD AT THIS TIME. THE FAA ATLANTIC OPERATIONS CONTROL CENTER HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS OUTAGE. THERE IS NO ESTIMATE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE TELEPHONE LINE OUTAGE AT THE KPBG ASOS WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...DEAL/LAHIFF SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...LAHIFF EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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