Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 240826 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 426 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showers will be moving east out of the area as the morning wears on today. Sunshine is also expected to develop as well. Highs will be a few degrees above normal today then return to seasonal normals on Sunday as clouds increasing along with the chance for showers. Unsettled weather is expected for much of next week with chances for showers just about everyday. Temperatures will be slightly below normal through midweek then slightly above normal for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 425 AM EDT Saturday...Transition day today with "cold" front moving west to east through the forecast area and lower humidity air advecting in from the northwest. The line of showers we`ve been watching all night has moved east of Champlain valley ahead of the front, and will continue on eastward during pre- dawn hours and exit Vermont. Front has moved out of St. Lawrence Valley into the northern Adirondacks with surface winds turning westerly in St. Lawrence and Franklin counties NY and dewpoints starting to fall into the 60s. Light convection firing to the south in the central Adirondacks, while 88D radar picking up a fine line signature to the north. Today through tonight a full latitude upper trough deepens across the east central US with southwest flow over the northeast. A shortwave trough moving out of the mean trough will pass over the area this morning through mid day. Shortwave along with forecast CAPE 500-700 j/kg near the Canadian border will keep chance pops alive mainly in the north. Noticeably drier air works in this afternoon and overnight, and along with a shortwave ridge aloft will diminish rain chances overnight. Front is cold in name only, with temperatures in the 70s to low 80s today. 850 mb temps support a few degrees warmer, however clouds around should limit the potential. Cooler temperatures tonight, with lows in the 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 357 AM EDT Saturday...Shortwave trough will be moving into the area on Sunday...especially during the afternoon hours. Thus looking at increasing clouds and increasing chances for showers. Highs will generally be in the 70s. The shortwave trough exits the area Sunday night and most of the precipitation will exit the area as well. Another shortwave trough moves in on Monday and as a result...plenty of clouds will persist and chances for showers will increase once again during the afternoon hours. Highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 357 AM EDT Saturday...Overall still looking at an unsettled period. An upper level trough of low pressure will exist over eastern Canada and the Northeast through midweek. A series of shortwave troughs will move through the trough and enhance the potential for showers right through midweek. Below normal temperatures are expected during this period. The pattern will change for Thursday and Friday as flow aloft becomes more westerly. Temperatures will warm up with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. With the upper flow remaining more westerly over our area...the chances for showers and storms will exist. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06Z Sunday...VFR/MVFR conditions will exist through 12z as plenty of moisture remains over the area. Scattered to numerous showers will move east across northeast New York and Vermont during this time period as well. Due to the showers and low level moisture...there will be periods of IFR conditions through 12z...but these conditions will not be widespread and should not last too long. Still enough wind at the surface to limit conditions falling any lower than IFR. After 12z improving conditions will take place as drier air moves in from the west. The trend toward VFR conditions will take place between 12z and 16z with all areas becoming VFR from 16z through the remainder of the period. Winds will generally be 10 knots or less through the period. Watch for a wind shift south and southwest to west and northwest between 13z and 16z. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Hanson SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Evenson

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