Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 011406 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1006 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOOK FOR TODAY TO HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE COMING DAYS. THERE WILL BE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 957 AM EDT FRIDAY...MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED. GENERALLY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH A PATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (BASES BETWEEN 10,000 AND 13,000 FT) ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN ABLE TO DROP A FEW SPRINKLES PER WEB CAM IMAGES AND OBSERVATION FROM THE OGDENSBURG AIRPORT. WITH THE BOUNTIFUL SUNSHINE, SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY AND A BIT FASTER THAN OUR HOURLY TRENDS HAD. 12Z SOUNDING FROM ALBANY INDICATES 850MB AND 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 83F IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UP 1 DEGREE AND SYNCHED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. STILL LOOKING AT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR PERHAPS A T-STORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THERE ARE NO OTHER FORCING MECHANISMS TO BE FOUND. THOUGH THAT SAID, INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AS IS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 419 AM EDT FRIDAY...ANY CONVECTION COMES TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. FLOW ALOFT ACTUALLY BACKS JUST A BIT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING ABOUT MORE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEING THE MAIN THREAT...ALONG WITH LIGHTNING OF COURSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 419 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO MONDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME HEIGHT FALLS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE WESTERLY. STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION...INDICATIONS THAT A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE RESULT WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TUESDAY. STILL CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY EVEN THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON ANY LINGERING SHORTWAVES IN FLOW ALOFT. BUT OVERALL THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 12-14C MONDAY/TUESDAY...COOLING JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND BY MID WEEK && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY MID CLOUDS. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IFR IN FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AT SLK/MPV WHICH WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12-14Z...AND MORE FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AS SAME SITES AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...NASH SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS

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