Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 302334 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 734 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Clouds will be on the increase across the north country overnight, as a cold front approaches from Ontario. There will be a chance of showers after midnight across northern Vermont and northern New York. On Wednesday, a cold front will move south from Canada and will bring rain showers to the region, along with a chance for thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon. A high pressure area over Ontario and the western Great Lakes on Thursday will build slowly east and bring fair and dry weather to the north country from Thursday through Labor Day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 645 PM EDT Tuesday...Widespread mid and upper level clouds in place across all but s-central VT this evening. These clouds are largely associated with anvil blowoff from WNW-ESE from cluster of thunderstorms north of Lake Ontario at 2230Z, and will likely remain in place through the overnight period. These clouds should preclude fog formation, and keep temps mild overnight (mainly in the 60s). Adjusted temps upward a couple of degrees above the MOS consensus for most areas (including a low of 66F at BTV). With mid-level height falls occurring overnight, some remnant shower activity may reach nrn NY into nwrn VT toward/after midnight. Some weak elevated instability may allow a rumble or two of thunder as well. PoPs increase to 30-40 percent across nrn CWA during the pre-dawn hours. On Wednesday, a cold front will move south from Canada across the region. Have gone with mostly likely pops for showers by Wednesday afternoon. Have also included a chance for thunderstorms with prospects for SBCAPE values of 500-700 J/kg during the early to mid afternoon hours. Prevailing mid-upr clouds should preclude CAPE from becoming too substantial. Precipitable water values reach 1.5" or so, suggesting some locally heavy downpours are possible with embedded convective elements. High temps mainly in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 407 PM EDT Tuesday...chance for showers persists as cold front progresses from NW to SE across the North country Wednesday night into early Thursday. Showers will become less numerous during the day Thursday as the surface front exits SE VT during the morning. 500mb trough will continue to provide some lift with plentiful clouds and slight to low chance for showers. Otherwise NW flow will filter into the area with gradually drying conditions. Expect the base of the mid level trough to move across the region Thursday night with continued clouds. Temperatures Wednesday night will be near normal to slight above with cooler air more evident as max temps on Thursday peak in the 60s to mid 70s. Cooler temperatures expected Thursday night with mins in the mid 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 407 PM EDT Tuesday...Mid level trough exits south and east on Fridays with an isolated shower possible. After that, N to NW flow persists into Saturday as high pressure at the surface and aloft affect the region. This will result in mostly clear skies and dry weather with below normal temperatures moderating into the weekend. Overnight min temperatures Friday night and Saturday night will fall into the low 40s to low 50s as the surface ridge crests over the region and 850mb temps fall to 7C-8C. This ridge will also help keep a tropical system offshore Sunday into Tuesday, but run to run consistency is lacking at this time with regard to track. Will have to continue to keep an eye on this system. && .AVIATION /23Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
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Through 18Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period. Tonight there could be a shower or sprinkles tonight, mainly at SLK/MSS as convective debris heads east but diminishes with time. These showers are not expected to cause any visibility restrictions at this time. With all the clouds tonight, the chances of the usual fog is low, so do not have any mention in the TAFs. Wed a.m. some chance of MVFR cigs especially MSS as additional moisture is advected NE up the St. Lawrence valley and can`t rule out a shower. A cold front moving through the region Wed p.m. brings the best chance of showers and thunderstorms during maximum daytime heating from noon to 8 pm. There may be brief MVFR/IFR in scattered showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. For now have left out mention of thunderstorms until it becomes more certain when and where they form. Outlook 00Z Thursday through Sunday... Wed night: LCL MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms tapering off. Thu-Fri: A few light showers/sprinkles possible with local MVFR cigs but confined mainly to the mtns on Fri. Sat-Sun: Mainly VFR with building surface high pressure.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...Banacos/WGH SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Sisson

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