Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271427 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1027 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system will move east through the north country early this morning. Mainly dry weather will be over the north country today through Thursday. An upper low will bring a chance of showers to the region from Thursday night through this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 1027 AM EDT Tuesday...Surface occluded front continues to shift east of the North Country this morning, and in it`s wake dry conditions and variable cloudiness can be expected through the day. Noting a few lake enhanced showers and even thunderstorms developing off Lakes Erie and Ontario and while confidence is rather low they`ll make it into the BTV CWA have opted to include some slight to low chance pops across St. Lawrence county through the day. Temps are on track to be back above seasonal normals, rising into the mid 60s to low 70s this afternoon. Tonight, expecting a mainly dry forecast with partly cloudy skies. lows will be mainly in the 40s to lower 50s in some valley locations. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 351 AM EDT Tuesday...Large scale pattern shows closed 5h/7h circulation across the Ohio Valley with building ridge both aloft and at the surface across eastern/southern Canada. This complex and nearly stationary pattern will produce above normal temperatures and several chances for precip. However...latest trends show best potential of heavier rainfall staying closer to the upper level circulation over the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic States through Thursday. Have continued with a mainly dry forecast for Weds...as best energy and moisture is located over the Ohio Valley. An isolated shower or sprinkle is possible over the mountains and have mention slight chance pops to cover this potential. Progged 850mb temps near 7c support highs well into the 60s with a few 70s possible...especially if we can see some sun in the warmer valleys. By Thursday...have noted easterly 850mb flow of 15 to 25 knots...may help to advect low level moisture into central/eastern vt. Still plenty of uncertainty on depth of moisture and placement...so high only mention chance pops across southern/eastern VT on Thursday...with some areas of drizzle possible in the mountains. Thinking additional clouds will keep southeast cwa cooler with highs mainly in the 60s...but lower 70s possible Saint Lawrence Valley...with lows mainly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 351 AM EDT Tuesday...Little change in the overall synoptic pattern is expected through Saturday...as closed mid/upper level low pressure continues to sit and spin across the Ohio Valley. Eventually pattern will break down and cyclonic circulation will weaken as it lifts across the NE CONUS by next weekend. Still plenty of uncertainty on the overall impacts of system and placement of best deep layer moisture and upper level support. Latest trends show best moisture/lift remaining to our south through Friday...with only weak embedded vorts lifting across our cwa...resulting in chc pops. Furthermore....seems like moisture fields and associated qpf weaken as it encounters dry air associated with surface ridge. Guidance shows a tight north to south precip gradient across central New England into the Mid Atlantic...given this scenario have continuity to mention chc pops during the Thurs Night into Saturday time period. Best chance for measurable qpf will be along the se upslope regions of the green mountains of central/southern vt during this time period. Also...prevailing east to southeast flow may result in areas of low clouds and drizzle...with cooler temps. Thinking highs will generally range from the upper 50s/lower 60s mountains of eastern VT to lower 70s Saint Lawrence Valley with near 70f for the Champlain Valley. Have kept temps several degrees above superblend because of clouds...with lows mainly in the 50s...which is above 10 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /15Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Through 12Z Wednesday...Rain showers have moved well east of the region as of 1130Z today. Expecting mainly VFR conditions throughout the region by 15Z Tuesday. Outlook 12z Wednesday through Saturday... 12z Wed - 00z Thu: Generally VFR, though an MVFR marine layer may intrude from the east late Tuesday night through mid-day Wednesday. 00z Thu - 00z Sun: Mainly VFR with MVFR in rain showers possible, especially on Saturday. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH/Lahiff SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...WGH/Lahiff

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