-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 262045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 929 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO TRACK THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES OFF THE COAST. AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH LATER
TODAY IT WILL DIG UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION AND PUSH THAT HIGH TO THE NORTH. UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTWARD THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG
TOUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AS IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z
TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY EAST OF NEW JERSEY TONIGHT.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND PARTS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z-10Z TUESDAY. KMSS WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY SNOW THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP AT
KSLK BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV