Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 061356 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 956 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW EVOLVING UPPER LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR DRIVER OF THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNNIER SKIES AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY WITH SOME LIMITED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. A COLD FRONT BRINGS A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND, WITH A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 0955 AM EDT FRIDAY...AS PROMISED, WE WILL FINALLY SEE SOME SUNNIER SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINA`S THIS MORNING BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WE`LL START THE DAY MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER VERMONT, BUT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHWARD CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILL BACK IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED, WE`LL HAVE LITTLE DYNAMICAL FORCING OVER THE AREA, SO ANY SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY TERRAIN AND DIURNAL HEATING, AND MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ZONES CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH PEAK HEATING, WE`LL FINALLY REALIZE SOME NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS WE MIX TO AT LEAST 925MB WHERE TEMPS OF +12-14C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AT THE SURFACE, LOCALLY AT/NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. SOME SMALL TWEAKS MADE TO THE THE TEMPS AROUND LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS TEMPS THERE ARE LAGGING BEHIND INLAND TEMPS BY ABOUT 7-8F. THAT GAP SHOULD CLOSE AS THE DAY PROGRESS. BEYOND THAT THE FORECAST LOOKS SOUND FOR THE MORNING. FOR TONIGHT, I MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS SOME LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA, BUT BY AND LARGE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER LOW GYRES AROUND THE DC AREA. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD, HOLDING IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 302 AM EDT FRIDAY... BY SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR OUT AND LIFT BODILY NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AS BACKGROUND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN CANADA. WHILE I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS, VERTICAL MOTIONS ARE WEAK AND WITH FAIRLY PALTRY UPPER DYNAMICAL SUPPORT I FEEL MOST OF THE DAY WON`T BE TOO BAD WITH JUST VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION WITH ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHOWERS. PWATS AREN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE (~ 0.75 INCHES) BUT FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF HIGH POPS (60-80%) DURING THIS PERIOD. BY LATER SUNDAY PRIMARY UPPER SUPPORT PULLS EAST WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WANING OVER TIME ALONG WITH SOME PEAKS OF LATE DAY SUN, ESPECIALLY WEST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DO TREND RATHER COOL BY EARLY MAY STANDARDS, AND WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING A LIGHT JACKET WILL COME IN HANDY AS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 50S, PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 40S IN HIGHER ELEVATION COMMUNITIES OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 302 AM EDT FRIDAY... AFTER A CHILLY START MONDAY MORNING (30S TO AROUND 40) THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS NOW LOOKING REASONABLY GOOD WITH LATEST TRENDS IN THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT SUGGESTING OUR AREA WILL REMAIN GOVERNED BY CONFLUENT WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. INDEED, LATEST INCOMING PROGS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE STREAKING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST BENEATH THIS FLOW REGIME WILL LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR REGION DURING THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS A MATTER OF COURSE I`VE LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT FROM OUR PRIOR FORECAST, THOUGH MAINTAINED AT LEAST SOME CONTINUITY OUT OF RESPECT FOR LINGERING UNCERTAINTY IN THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. THIS WOULD STILL OFFER A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THIS PERIOD, BUT TREND TOWARD A DRIER SCENARIO. OUTSIDE THAT CHILLY MONDAY START BLENDED MODEL 925-850 MB THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT SEASONAL MID-SPRING TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLE LATE/SOUTH. WE START THE DAY GENERALLY SKC TO A FEW CIRRUS, BUT A SCT-BKN MID DECK WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR KRUT, POSSIBLY KSLK. AFTER SUNSET, CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY, BUT MAINLY AT KSLK/KMPV/RUT, WITH GENERALLY VFR NORTHWARD. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH/NORTHEAST, SLIGHTLY STRONG AT 10-15KT AT KPBG, 5-10KTS ELSEWHERE BEFORE ABATING TONIGHT. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 12Z SAT - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. 00Z SUN - 06Z MON: MVFR IN FRONTAL SHOWERS. 06Z MON - 00Z WED: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS TUESDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/MV SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...LAHIFF

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