Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 061151 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 651 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH SEASONABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN THAT WILL SEE OFF AND ON LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 643 AM EST SATURDAY... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. CURRENT REFLECTIVITY`S SHOW THE SNOW DEVELOPING AND SPREADING UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. DID BOOST THE CHANGE FOR SNOW SHOWERS UP A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. ENJOY THE START TO YOUR WEEKEND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 326 AM EST SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS EAST OF JAMES BAY IN CANADA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE 925-800MB FLOW TURNS WESTERLY AND WE COULD SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK THAT GENERATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD INTO VERMONT AND SEE GENERALLY CLOUD SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. THE SURFACE FRONT FROM THE LOW OVER JAMES BAY DOESN`T LOOK TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO VERMONT OR NEW YORK BUT THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT RIDES ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AS IT CROSSES INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK BY LATE MORNING EXPECT A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING USHER IN LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BRING 925MB TEMPS UP BY AROUND 4-5 DEGC INTO THE -3C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SUPPORTS DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE FLOW THIS EVENING WILL TURN MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT JUST TO THE NORTH NEAR MONTREAL. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IF SOME OF THAT SHALLOW AIR GETS TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NEW YORK AND CANADA. I DONT EXPECT IT TO HAPPEN SO THE COLDER AIR SHOULD STAY JUST TO THE NORTH AND OUR LOWS THIS EVENING WILL BE IN THE MID 20S WHICH IS WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS OF SINGLE DIGITS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WEAKENING FRONT AND GENERALLY WASH IT OUT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HAVE JUST KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY EARLY SUNDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LIES BETWEEN 2 SYSTEMS. A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST SUNDAY AND MOVES NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N 70W) EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE REGION WILL LIE IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN 2 SYSTEMS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GIVE THE NORTH COUNTRY A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR IN WHAT HAS BEEN A RELATIVELY MILD WINTER. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST THIS OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION AT SLK WHERE SHOW SHOWERS HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO IFR AND CEILINGS TO MVFR. CURRENT RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS SLK HOLDING ON TO LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO MSS BY SHORTLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15-16Z BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE ANTICIPATE A STRATUS DECK HOLDING ON AROUND 6000-7500 FEET. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AT KMSS/KBTV. OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 12Z SUN-18Z SUN...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. 18Z SUN-18Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z MON ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...DEAL

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