Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 221952 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 352 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN STICK AROUND. THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SPOT SHOWER SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE LOTS OF SUN AND INCREASING WARMTH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...LOTS O` CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE THE COMMON FEATURES FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME. ALL THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWERS ARE SLOW MOVING, BUT THUS FAR NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS -- PERHAPS SOME SPOT AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2". NOT A LOT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR THE SHOWERS, SO AS WE REACH CLOSER TO SUNSET, EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO DIMINISH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT LATER TONIGHT, A DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS (EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTH OF THE BORDER) WILL START TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT. AT THAT TIME WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME CLEARING, HOWEVER GIVEN THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS, I WOULD EXPECT FOG TO QUICKLY DEVELOP. THUS HAVE ADDED IN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS FAVORED VALLEY AREAS OF VERMONT. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WON`T FALL TOO MUCH OR TOO QUICKLY. THINK 50S ACROSS THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...STILL LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY DECENT WEEKEND, WITH JUST ONE SMALL BUG-A-BOO. WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SLOW TO EVOLVE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WITH STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND, ANTICIPATE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS FORMING. APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. HAVE PAINTED IN LOW RAINFALL CHANCES, GENERALLY 15-25% FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THAT AREA. CERTAINLY NOT GOING TO BE A WASHOUT. OTHERWISE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 11-12C, THIS SHOULD SUPPORT LOWER ELEVATION TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, AND FAVOR AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKING IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SET UP A CLEAR/CALM NIGHT. WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STILL EXPECTED TO BE MOIST DUE TO RECENT RAINS, THIS WILL SET UP A PERFECT SITUATION FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP -- ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S, WITH COLDER HOLLOWS INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SPECTACULAR WEATHER DAY (WELL, FOR SUMMER FANS). HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE 12-14C RANGE. THUS LOTS OF 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE THE COMMON RESULT. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS, SO ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN FALL BACK INTO THE 50S (40S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 352 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR FIRST HALF OF EXTENDED PERIOD THE FULL LATITUDE RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI BASIN SHIFTS EAST OVER THE EASTERN US. QUIET WEATHER DURING THIS TIME, WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY MID WEEK GFS DEVELOPS HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER EASTERN US AND TROUGH TO WEST, WHILE ECMWF FLATTENS OUT. AS A RESULT GFS 1000-500MB THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPS QUITE A BIT WARMER. GFS 850 MB TEMPS UP TO 17F ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. ECMWF SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT WITH WARMER TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...SO FELT COMFORTABLE BUMPING UP WEDS MAX TEMPS OVER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. THIS ALSO MATCHED PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. ECMWF/GFS DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY IN TEMPS...IS LOWER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES IS TAKEN BY THE GFS TO DIG AN EAST COAST TROUGH...WHILE THE ECMWF FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT AND TAKES THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT GFS GIVES ANOTHER DAY OF WARMTH WHILE THE ECMWF COOLS US DOWN ON THURSDAY. HEDGED A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TOWARD THE GFS ON THURSDAY...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST MAXES THURS OUT OF THE MID/UPPER 80S. BOTH MODELS BRING POPS UP INTO CHC CATEGORY WITH THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE FRONT DESPITE DISSIMILARITIES AT 500 MB. ORIENTATION AND SPEED OF THE FRONT VARIES...BUT USING A BROAD BRUSH IN THE FAR END OF THE EXTENDED YIELDED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR TO VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAINSHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. TREATED SHOWERS WITH VCSH AND WILL UPDATE TAFS AS THEY MOVE INTO AERODROME. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RAISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN EXPECT SOME SOME LOWERING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DURING OVERNIGHT OURS SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING WILL MOVE IN FROM NORTHEAST. FIRST IN VT THEN MOVE INTO NY BY DAYBREAK. TIMING IS KEY HERE...AND DRYING ALOFT WILL ALLOW MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIFR FOG FORMATION AT KMPV. ALSO INCREASE FOG PRODUCTION AT KSLK...DRYING WILL BE CLOSE TO SUNRISE BUT THAT PLACE IS PRONE TO FOG IN AND BROUGHT LIFR TO KSLK TOWARD MORNING. OTHERWISE TREND ON SATURDAY IS TOWARD BREAKING OF OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND P6SM. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT AREAS IFR/LIFR IN FOG SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. RIDGE BUILDS INTO REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH NO PRECIP AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NASH NEAR TERM...NASH SHORT TERM...NASH LONG TERM...HANSON AVIATION...HANSON

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