Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 191350 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 950 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 950 AM EDT SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. THESE FEATURES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A RATHER DREARY START TO SATURDAY WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOWER- ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT WITH SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 1500 FT (AS PER WEBCAMS AND BTV-4 BUFKIT THERMAL PROFILES). HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INDICATE AREAL COVERAGE WORDING WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION. WITH STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS BACK ACROSS EASTERN QUEBEC...FEEL HIGHS MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES TOO WARM. THOUGH SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...ONLY A FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH A POST-FRONTAL COLD AND DRY ADVECTION REGIME THROUGH THE COLUMN MAY ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE 40S...COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. ONCE SKIES DO CLEAR OUT BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST GUSTS TO PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY (PEAKING OUT AROUND 30 MPH) AS COLD ADVECTION ESTABLISHES BETTER MIXING DEPTHS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF AS SURFACE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES...AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAINLY UPPER 50S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED...A NICE DAY ON TAP. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE WARMER THAN TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY...WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 350 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO START ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALLOWING FOR A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. SHOULDN`T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS IS LIKELY FROM TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE SECONDARY LOW WILL DETERMINE LENGTH AND AMOUNT OF RAIN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 60S ON TUESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT POST-FRONT FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S. SOME SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE TAIL-END OF PRECIP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS COMBINED WITH MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND OROGRAPHIC RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. AS A RESULT WE`LL ALSO BE LOOKING AT A BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...45-55F FOR HIGHS. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND A NICE DAY/COOL NIGHTS. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY FROM 50-60F WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH NIGHTS. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SO WE`LL BE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS MORNING IS DELIVERING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THESE WILL GRADUALLY WANE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING...HANGING ON IN EASTERN AND HIGHER ELEVATION TAF SITES THE LONGEST. ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RUT ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING OR ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR...MAINLY DUE TO SOME LOWER CEILINGS POST-FRONT IN UPSLOPE FLOW. SLK IS SEEING SOME IFR. IMPROVEMENT AFTER 14Z IS FORECAST WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS LIKELY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ABATE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES. OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES/LOCONTO SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...MUCCILLI AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI

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