Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 311148 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 748 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 627 AM EDT THURSDAY...REAL QUICK UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT TEMPERATURES A BIT BETTER AS READINGS HAVE GONE EVEN COOLER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH ANY OF THE STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION ALL NIGHT...WHICH INDICATES THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR AREA. GOING FORECAST OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL GOOD. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AS WELL WITH SURFACE HEATING AND SOME COOLING ALOFT PRODUCING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 250 AND 500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 70S. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH MENTION OF VCTS...DURING WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AT MPV/SLK. WINDS SOUTHERLY 8-13 KTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS

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