Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 310736 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 336 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak disturbance passing north of the region this afternoon will bring scattered clouds and perhaps a few light showers or sprinkles to northern mountain communities. Otherwise dry and seasonably warm conditions are expected through Thursday as high pressure builds across the northeast. A trend toward cloudier, more unsettled weather returns by Friday, and again from Sunday onward into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...Generally quiet weather is expected over the next 24 hours and a largely persistence forecast was offered for this morning`s package. For today we`ll start the day mainly sunny, then trend partly sunny by afternoon as a shortwave upper trough passes to our immediate north and into northern Maine and the maritimes by this evening. The feature has little moisture to work with, and given a relatively dry boundary layer and thermal capping near 750 mb I`ve maintained our prior idea of just an outside shot of a passing light shower or sprinkle across the northern mountains later today. Best shot of occurrence across north central/northeastern VT in closer proximity to upper energy. Model-averaged 925 mb temperatures support highs in the 70s to locally in the lower 80s in Champlain/Connecticut River Valley communities where modestly gusty west-northwest boundary layer flow will foster adiabatic downsloping effects. By tonight surface high pressure continues to build into the region as upper heights rise over time. Any evening cloudiness will trend mainly clear overnight as west to northwesterly winds become light after midnight. While confidence is only modest given a full 24 hours of drying, favorable hydrolapse profiles and lighter nocturnal boundary layer wind fields suggest including at least shot of some patchy mist and/or fog across the northern mountains in the 200-700 am time frame. Low temperatures a blend of MOS-based and bias- corrected output which support values ranging through the 40s to around 50 in milder valley locales. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 336 AM EDT Tuesday...Ridge of high pressure will crest over the region on Wednesday. This will result in dry conditions, warm temperatures and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. As 925mb temperatures increase to the mid teens, surface temperatures will reach the 70s to low 80s on Wednesday. Areas east of the Greens may be slightly cooler as models trying to indicate some light easterly to southeasterly flow may bring some maritime are into eastern Vermont. Wednesday night will remain dry and mild with increasing clouds ahead of low pressure system and associated cold front approaching from the west. Aforementioned ridge will shift east over the Canadian maritimes, bringing return southerly flow to the North Country. Min temperatures will generally be in the 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 336 AM EDT Tuesday...Potential for rain showers and thunderstorms increase on Thursday as low pressure system nears. A weak warm front will graze Northern New York, with increasing POPs throughout the day, while the Champlain Valley and areas east are expected to remain dry. Max temperatures will be slightly warmer and dependent on cloud cover, ranging from the 70s to low-mid 80s. Cold front associated with the low is expected to move across the region Thursday night through Friday. Depending on timing, thunderstorms could develop. While bulk of energy exits the North Country to the south and east late Friday/Friday night, models indicate another vort at 500mb moving through late Friday night/early Saturday morning which will keep slight to low chance POPs over the area. High pressure arrives for the bulk of the weekend, providing a break in precip potential, before a long wave mid-level trough digs southward from the Great Lakes Region. Models show some differences with regard to evolution, track and timing of this system. Similarities exist in the surface low becoming a cut-off low and could lead to a wet first half of the week. Temperatures throughout the period will remain above normal by 5-10 degrees for this time of year.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Through 06z Wednesday...VFR through the forecast period. Winds generally light south to southwesterly 5 to 10 kts overnight through 12Z, slowly backing to west, then west to northwesterly after 12Z and occasionally gusty to 20 kts this afternoon before abating by 00Z. SCT to occasionally BKN cigs mainly in the 045-070 AGL range after 16Z or so as weak upper disturbance swings by to the north. Other than a brief mountain sprinkle, no precipitation is expected. Outlook 06Z Wednesday through Saturday... 06Z Wednesday through 00Z Friday...VFR/high pressure. 00Z Friday through 00Z Saturday...VFR with brief MVFR visibilities possible in scattered showers as weak frontal boundary swings through the area. 00Z Saturday onward...mainly VFR/high pressure. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...JMG

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