-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 311148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
748 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 627 AM EDT THURSDAY...REAL QUICK UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES A BIT BETTER AS READINGS HAVE GONE EVEN COOLER ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH ANY OF THE STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO
PROVINCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION ALL NIGHT...WHICH INDICATES
THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
OUR AREA. GOING FORECAST OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS REAL GOOD. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AS WELL WITH
SURFACE HEATING AND SOME COOLING ALOFT PRODUCING CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 250 AND 500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FOR THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WITH MENTION OF VCTS...DURING WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST. MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AT MPV/SLK. WINDS SOUTHERLY 8-13 KTS TODAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS