Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 270808 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 408 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Today will be the warmest day of the week with highs in the 80s to around 90. A weak disturbance will pass just to our north and may help kick off a few showers or thunderstorms near the Canadian border. Better chances for showers and storms arrives on Thursday as a trough of low pressure moves into the region. Other than a few showers over the southern areas on Friday...the weekend is shaping up to be dry with seasonal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 408 AM EDT Wednesday...Overall should be a relatively quiet day across the area. We start with a little fog in favored areas before sunshine develops all areas. The idea of today being the warmest day of the week looks to be on track with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Weak forcing will exist just north of the Canadian border later in the day and that could result in a few showers or thunderstorms...but most of the area will stay dry today. Tonight - Any lingering convection comes to an end early with lows generally in the 60s. We may be looking at fog developing later tonight in the typical locations. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 408 AM EDT Wednesday...Thursday continues to look like the best day for convection as a more well defined shortwave trough moves into the region. Like the idea of a chance for thunderstorms all areas that is already in the current forecast and will continue with that idea. Deep layer shear is weak and instability is not that impressive. Thus not anticipating any strong or severe storms at this time. High temperatures will be in the 80s. Look for the showers and storms to gradually weaken Thursday night. Convective potential decreases on Friday and wants to be more focused down across southern New England with our southern areas on the fringe of the showers or storms. So most of the area has a good chance of not seeing anything with high temperatures right around seasonal normals. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 408 AM EDT Wednesday...Trends in the data continue to support the idea of a dry west to northwest flow aloft across the area for the weekend. Will therefore keep Saturday and Sunday dry with high temperatures right around seasonal normals. Ridging aloft tries to build in for early next week and this should result in a warming trend with highs in the 80s for much of the area by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /08Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Through 06z Thursday...Other than periods of LIFR/VLIFR conditions at KSLK and KMPV through 13z...VFR conditions are expected everywhere in the area. There may be a few showers up near the Canadian Border between 21z and 03z. Winds will generally be under 10 knots through the period. Outlook 06z Thursday through Sunday... 06z Thu - 00z Sat: VFR with MVFR/IFR possible in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the daytime Thursday and Friday. 00z Sat - 00z Mon: VFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Evenson/KGM

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