Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 190228 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 928 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SURROUNDING SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY OWING TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 928 PM EST THURSDAY...PATCHY -FZDZ HAS MATERIALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN NY AND CENTRAL/NRN VT OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS AS PRIMARY DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYERS ARE TRENDING UNSATURATED. THIS HAS BEEN PICKED UP QUITE WELL ON THIS EVENING`S RAP SOUNDING PROFILES AND HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL LIGHT GLAZE ICING ON UNTREATED/ELEVATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS BLOCKED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN THE PATCHY -FZDZ AND SOME PASSING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...A GENERALLY CLOUDY NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT-TERM PERIOD...ONLY ISSUE WILL BE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACT ON RADIATIVE HEATING/COOLING AND TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY DRIFTS ACROSS THE NERN CONUS AND SERN CANADA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARD HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH FOR FRIDAY. WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS AND LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LAYER/LOW SUN ANGLE...WILL KEEP ANY PARTIAL CLEARING FAIRLY LIMITED. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN WITH AREAS OF STRATUS LIKELY HOLDING ON ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/ERN VT. HAVE STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND TRENDED ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS ON LOW TEMPS DUE TO POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW, COINCIDING WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM MAXES OF MID TO UPPER 20S TO END THE WEEKEND, TO LOW TO MID 30S TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS, EDGING INTO THE TEXARKANA REGION, A WAVE AHEAD OF THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS TRANSITIONING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AS WE RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER/MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW STRENGTHENS QUICKLY. TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND SURFACE FEATURES STILL UNDER DEBATE AMONG THE MODELS, BUT STRONG WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE PRESENT IN GFS AND ECMWF...WITH 850 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 55 KTS. GFS BEING STRONGER AND 850MB WINDS EXCEED 65KTS IN AREAS. THIS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS THE SUMMITS AND NWRN SLOPES. THIS WILL BE A STORM TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT DEVELOPS AND TRACKS TOWARD THE NE USA. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT MPV/SLK TONIGHT AND CONTINUING AT SLK FOR FRIDAY. PBG IS THE ONLY EXCEPTION WHERE SOME LOCAL DOWNSLOPING HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AND THAT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN AT BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z...POSSIBLY LASTING TO 12Z AT MPV/SLK. HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS EXPECTED...IF ANY AT ALL. NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...EXCEPT LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK. OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 00Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR. 00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...MUCCILLI

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