Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBTV 270808
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
408 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2016
Today will be the warmest day of the week with highs in the 80s to
around 90. A weak disturbance will pass just to our north and may
help kick off a few showers or thunderstorms near the Canadian
border. Better chances for showers and storms arrives on Thursday
as a trough of low pressure moves into the region. Other than a
few showers over the southern areas on Friday...the weekend is
shaping up to be dry with seasonal temperatures.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 408 AM EDT Wednesday...Overall should be a relatively quiet
day across the area. We start with a little fog in favored areas
before sunshine develops all areas. The idea of today being the
warmest day of the week looks to be on track with highs in the 80s
to lower 90s. Weak forcing will exist just north of the Canadian
border later in the day and that could result in a few showers or
thunderstorms...but most of the area will stay dry today.
Tonight - Any lingering convection comes to an end early with lows
generally in the 60s. We may be looking at fog developing later
tonight in the typical locations.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 408 AM EDT Wednesday...Thursday continues to look like the
best day for convection as a more well defined shortwave trough
moves into the region. Like the idea of a chance for thunderstorms
all areas that is already in the current forecast and will
continue with that idea. Deep layer shear is weak and instability
is not that impressive. Thus not anticipating any strong or severe
storms at this time. High temperatures will be in the 80s. Look
for the showers and storms to gradually weaken Thursday night.
Convective potential decreases on Friday and wants to be more
focused down across southern New England with our southern areas
on the fringe of the showers or storms. So most of the area has a
good chance of not seeing anything with high temperatures right
around seasonal normals.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 408 AM EDT Wednesday...Trends in the data continue to
support the idea of a dry west to northwest flow aloft across the
area for the weekend. Will therefore keep Saturday and Sunday dry
with high temperatures right around seasonal normals. Ridging
aloft tries to build in for early next week and this should result
in a warming trend with highs in the 80s for much of the area by
.AVIATION /08Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 06z Thursday...Other than periods of LIFR/VLIFR
conditions at KSLK and KMPV through 13z...VFR conditions are
expected everywhere in the area. There may be a few showers up
near the Canadian Border between 21z and 03z. Winds will generally
be under 10 knots through the period.
Outlook 06z Thursday through Sunday...
06z Thu - 00z Sat: VFR with MVFR/IFR possible in isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms during the daytime Thursday
00z Sat - 00z Mon: VFR.