Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 050504 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 104 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 103 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF POPS BASED ON CRNT RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FCST IS ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 352 PM EDT TUESDAY...FOR WEDNESDAY UPPER LOW PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND SAGS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY OVER TIME. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE PRIOR TRENDS IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT RATHER NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH. ALSO A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...AND WITH COOL POOL ALOFT AND SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS TRENDING COOLER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DURING THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN ZONES AS COOL POOL ALOFT AND UPPER TROUGH REMAIN OVER THE REGION. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ONCE AGAIN WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... PERSISTENCE CYCLONIC FLOW OF THIS WEEK DIMINISHES A TAD FOR LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND WITH A SPLIT ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN A RETURN TO CYCLONIC FLOE NE NOAM TROFINESS LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN SYSTEM MAY NOT BE A CONCERN TO US AND THAT IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ACROSS APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRI/SAT WANTING TO MAKE A MOVE NNE TOWARD SE NEW ENGLAND COAST BUT FOR NOW SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NOT TO THREATEN AREA. HOWEVER...MID- LEVEL TROFINESS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY PERSISTENCE CYCLONIC FLOW OF THIS WEEK DIMINISHES A TAD FOR LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND WITH A SPLIT ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN A RETURN TO CYCLONIC FLOE NE NOAM TROFINESS LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW...FRI AND SAT LOOK DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE WITH MAX T IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE FOG/MIST WITH IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY AT MPV, SLK AND MSS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. INFRARED SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS BKN CLOUDINESS WITH VERY LIGHT SHOWERS FROM CHAMPLAIN INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE EAST IN SHORT ORDER, BUT THERE`S SOME QUESTION ON IF MID-LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD CAN CLEAR OUT ENOUGH TO PROMOTE MIST/FOG FORMATION. A POCKET OF CLEARING BACK INTO THE OTTAWA VALLEY SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR OUT MSS AND PERHAPS SLK. THOUGH ITS CURRENTLY CLEAR AT MPV NOW, IT`S LESS CERTAIN THAT CLEARING COULD HAPPEN ONCE CLOUD DECK MOVES IN. IN EACH CASE, OPTED FOR TEMPO IFR VISIBILITIES. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH UNDER 5 KTS. THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN, TIED PRIMARILY TO THE DIURNAL HEATING PERIOD. HI-RES GUIDANCE POINTS SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT RUT. ROUGHLY FOLLOWED THIS BY INDICATING 6SM SHRA FOR THIS TAF FORECAST. STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW CAPABLE OF TURBULENCE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS (GUSTS UNDER 20 KTS) BECOME LIGHT WEST BY EVENING. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THURSDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS IFR/LIFR FOG AT MPV AND SLK TERMINALS. 12Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SPOTTY DIURNAL-DRIVEN SHOWERS. 00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...DAYTIME VFR WITH EVENING IFR/LIFR FOG AT MPV AND SLK TERMINALS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...LOCONTO

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