Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 280316 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1016 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF SNOW TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1010 PM EST TUESDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER IN MOST AREAS...WE HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VERMONT. ALSO...WITH DEEP LOW (988MB) STILL IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH N-NNW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVERNIGHT. THUS...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH SOME MINIMAL POPS FOR LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRY ACTIVITY. WITH MIXED PBL CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING OVERCAST...WILL NOT SEE TEMPERATURES FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO NEAR 10F IN MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE NOT MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA...WILL SEE SOME WIND CHILL VALUES 10 TO 15 BELOW OVERNIGHT. FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...PLEASE REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA ON WEDS...RESULTING IN A SLOW WEST TO EAST CLRING TREND. GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS SOME LINGERING 850 TO 500MB RH ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA THRU 15Z...BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP DRYING WL RESULT IN CLRING SKIES BY 18Z WEDS. NEXT FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE TRACKS THIS SYSTEM ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL CAUSE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT. EXPECTING AN ADVISORY LVL EVENT WITH GENERAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES IN THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS WL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AFTER A COLD START ON THURS MORNING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 335 PM EST TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS QUITE LIKELY FOR THE PERIOD, WITH TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOW AND SEVERAL DAYS WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE ONGOING WEATHER, AND FOCUS NEEDED ON THAT, I RELIED RATHER HEAVILY ON A "DOWN THE MIDDLE" MODEL BLEND FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ONLY A FEW MANUAL MODIFICATIONS. FROM WHAT I SAW, THE 12Z SUITE OF GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN THE BALLPARK ENOUGH THAT A BLEND SHOULD WORK OUT PRETTY GOOD. DAILY DETAILS BELOW... FRIDAY: CLIPPER WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING DURING THE DAY, AND AS IT MOVES EAST OF HERE IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN ONCE IT REACHES THE "WARMER" ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS. NET RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS -- COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. PAINTED IN SOME 20-30MPH GUSTS. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN COLDER AIR AS THE DAY GOES ON. DEFINITELY A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND WITH HIGHS FIRST THING. THE MID 20S "WARMTH" AT 8AM WILL END UP IN THE 5-15F RANGE BY EVENING TIME. COULD HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES TO TRACK COME FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE PRECIPITATION SIDE OF THINGS, SNOW SHOWERS FIRST THING IN THE DAY WILL DIMINISH AND BE MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. IN THE END, LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 3-5" "ADVISORY" LEVEL EVENT (LOCALLY A BIT MORE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS). GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD FRIDAY NIGHT. SUB- ZERO FOR EVERYBODY! SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SHOULD BE SUNNY, BUT ALWAYS BEWARE OF SUNNY DAYS IN MID-WINTER. THAT MEANS COLD TOO. 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND -20C. HIGHS 0 TO 8F WHERE WE LIVE. BRRR. WARM WEATHER FANS WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THE SUNNY SKIES AND PRETEND TO FEEL THE WARMTH. SATURDAY NIGHT - ANOTHER QUIET AND COLD NIGHT. SUB-ZERO FOR US ALL AGAIN. SUNDAY/MONDAY: FAST MOVING TROUGH IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS IN THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS THE DEVELOPMENT BY MONDAY OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF HERE. GFS SUGGEST JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND GOES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO THE 50-60% RANGE FOR SUNDAY NITE/MONDAY. CERTAINLY STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO TRACK AND INTENSITY. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE AN ALL SNOW EVENT WITH LIKELY A PLOWABLE AMOUNT OF SNOW. HOWEVER, IF THE TRACK ENDS UP GOING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH, THEN WE MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED, EARLIER, JUST WENT WITH MODEL BLENDS FOR TEMPERATURES BUT ABOVE THE BLENDS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TUESDAY: ANOTHER SHOT OF BITTER ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY STORM. GFS IS BRUTALLY COLD. 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -35C! THE RAW MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURE COME TUESDAY MORNING IS -25 TO -35F! (NOTE THAT MOS TURNS THAT INTO A -3F FOR BTV), AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD ONLY BE -5 TO -15F. THE ECMWF IS "MUCH" WARMER -- 925MB TEMPERATURES OF -20C WITH IT`S RAW SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT -15F IN THE MORNING WITH HIGHS -5 TO +5F. AT THIS POINT, HAVE MADE THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECWMF. I DID WANT TO MAKE THE 7TH DAY OF THE FORECAST TO SHOW A +1C FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE, JUST TO GIVE SOME HOPE TO WARM WEATHER FANS AFTER DAYS OF SUB-FREEZING (< 0C) HIGHS. BUT ALAS, IT WASN`T POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL EXIST FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR AREA-WIDE ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUE TO LINGER THIS EVENING AS COASTAL LOW DEPARTS THE NORTHEASTERN US. THESE WILL BE MOST PREVALENT AT MPV/BTV/PBG WHERE PERIODS OF IFR ARE LIKELY THROUGH 04Z-08Z. SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT RUT/SLK BUT WILL ONLY SHOW MVFR FOR NOW. MSS WILL REMAIN DRY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE LOW STRATUS WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING AND SCATTERING OUT ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...GRADUALLY LESSENING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWEST FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT BTV/RUT/MPV...NORTHEAST AT PBG FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS...AND WEST/SOUTHWEST FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT MSS/SLK. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR. 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW. 00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...NONE. NY...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...NASH AVIATION...MUCCILLI/NASH

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