Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KBTV 311909
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
309 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016
-- Changed Discussion --A cold front will push across northern Vermont and New York with
little fanfare early this evening. Seasonably warm temperatures and
low humidity levels will continue into Wednesday. The next chance
for precipitation isn`t until Thursday afternoon and evening as a
cold front sparks showers and possible thunderstorms. Temperatures
remain generally seasonable Friday into the weekend.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 307 PM EDT Tuesday...Weak area of high pressure remains in
control across central and southern VT, while a cold front is
located near the Canadian border and is mainly resulting in a
greater areal coverage of cumulus clouds. Expect the front to
continue to progress eastward across the northern areas into the
evening. Associated cloud cover - roughly from Saranac Lake to
Montpelier eastward to the NH border - will initially limit
stronger radiative cooling this evening but should clear late this
evening into the overnight. While a period of north winds 10-15
mph is expected for a brief time after frontal passage, winds will
eventually go light northerly. Radiational fog is likely in the
favored locations overnight given favorable hydrolapse profiles
and light boundary-layer winds. 925 mb temps dip to around +9 to
+11C overnight. Stuck with a blend of MOS-based and bias-
corrected temps for mins this evening, ranging from the upper
30s/low 40s in the Adirondacks up to the lower 50s in the
Shaping up to be another outstanding day weatherwise on Wednesday
under ridge of high pressure and mid-tropospheric height rises.
Abundant sunshine to be the rule with any fair weather cumulus to
be closely tied to the terrain. Looking at highs once again in the
70s to lower 80s with comfortable humidity levels. Winds generally
light northerly and strongly governed by lake breeze and terrain
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.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 336 AM EDT Tuesday...Ridge of high pressure will crest over
the region on Wednesday. This will result in dry conditions, warm
temperatures and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. As 925mb
temperatures increase to the mid teens, surface temperatures will
reach the 70s to low 80s on Wednesday. Areas east of the Greens
may be slightly cooler as models trying to indicate some light
easterly to southeasterly flow may bring some maritime are into
Wednesday night will remain dry and mild with increasing clouds
ahead of low pressure system and associated cold front approaching
from the west. Aforementioned ridge will shift east over the
Canadian maritimes, bringing return southerly flow to the North
Country. Min temperatures will generally be in the 50s.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 336 AM EDT Tuesday...Potential for rain showers and
thunderstorms increase on Thursday as low pressure system nears. A
weak warm front will graze Northern New York, with increasing POPs
throughout the day, while the Champlain Valley and areas east are
expected to remain dry. Max temperatures will be slightly warmer
and dependent on cloud cover, ranging from the 70s to low-mid 80s.
Cold front associated with the low is expected to move across the
region Thursday night through Friday. Depending on timing,
thunderstorms could develop. While bulk of energy exits the North
Country to the south and east late Friday/Friday night, models
indicate another vort at 500mb moving through late Friday
night/early Saturday morning which will keep slight to low chance
POPs over the area.
High pressure arrives for the bulk of the weekend, providing a
break in precip potential, before a long wave mid-level trough
digs southward from the Great Lakes Region. Models show some
differences with regard to evolution, track and timing of this
system. Similarities exist in the surface low becoming a cut-off
low and could lead to a wet first half of the week.
Temperatures throughout the period will remain above normal by
5-10 degrees for this time of year.
.AVIATION /19Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 18z Wednesday...VFR through afternoon and early evening,
trending VFR with LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK overnight.
Conditions trend all VFR into Wednesday.
CLear skies and gusty west winds will continue through the late
afternoon. Should see an increase to SCT/BKN VFR cloud cover in
response to a cold front that will move across the TAFs by late
aftn into mid-evening. Expect a wind shift to north around 10-12
kts then dissipating to under 5 kts by midnight. Mostly clear
skies, light/calm winds and antecedent wet ground from rains of a
couple of days ago should once again yield areas of radiational
fog at SLK and MPV. Recent guidance suggests that crossover temps
should be met around 06z, and I`ve thus started fog around this
point for these two sites.
Any fog then clears rapidly by 12z Wednesday to VFR few/sct fair
weather cu. Winds north 3-7 kts.
Outlook 18Z Wednesday through Sunday...
VFR conditions with overnight IFR/LIFR fog at MPV/SLK to continue
through Wednesday night. VFR with gusty south winds likely on
Thursday, trending MVFR by evening associated with showers/storms
with a cold front passage. VFR to then prevail Friday into the
weekend, with chances for IFR/LIFR fog each evening at MPV/SLK.