Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 241927 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 327 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably strong high pressure will continue to bring fair weather and warm, record high temperatures to the region through Wednesday. By later Wednesday into Wednesday night the chances of showers increase as a cold front crosses the area. Behind this front temperatures will cool back toward more typical early autumn values from Thursday onward into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 312 PM EDT Sunday...High temperature records already falling in earnest as of 200 pm as deep layer, anomalously strong high pressure continues to build across the northeast. This high will remain anchored in place over the next 48 hours with more rinse and repeat weather and record high temperatures on Monday in the 80s to near 90. See climate section at bottom for specific records over the next few days. Again, I leaned close to a multi-model bias-corrected blend for max/min temperatures given little change in airmass. This supports a somewhat wider than normal diurnal range with typical late night/early morning mist/fog in favored locales morning. Some suggestions that even the St. Lawrence Valley may get in on the fog tonight per most recent NAM 3km output. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 323 PM EDT Sunday...The previous forecast remains on track for Tuesday into Tuesday night. Models are in fairly good agreement. The upper level ridge will remain over the region. With no change in airmass, will hold onto max temps in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. This also pushes heat index values once again into the 90-94 degree range. While these temps are considered sub advisory(<95 F), they are not to be taken lightly especially given the time of year. Based on the forecast and current records, its expected that records will fall at all sites by 3-5 degrees. Prolonged exposure outside combined with strenuous activity can lead to heat related injuries. Please take caution, stay hydrated and take frequent breaks during any outdoor activities. This will be the third consecutive day with 90+ degree heat indexes during the afternoon. With upper 80`s to low 90`s temps, the overnight lows wont fall that much. Expect lows each night in the upper 50s to low 60s which is 15-20 degrees above normal for this time of year.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 323 PM EDT Sunday...Model solutions begin to diverge with the handling of timing, and to some extent placement, of the mid level shortwaves and attendant cold front. Still looks like the upper level ridge begins to break down heading into Wednesday as a low pressure system begins to finally track towards the North Country from the Great Lakes. With the flow aloft not turning zonal until mid day Wednesday anticipate the frontal system moving through slower than the models suggest. I`ve removed pops Wednesday morning. Will still carry chance pops Wednesday afternoon but have removed mention of thunder. Any afternoon activity is expected to be pre-frontal and on the weaker side with the cold front not expected to move through until Wednesday night. A trailing shortwave will move across the region the end of the week. For now have gone with slight-low chance pops Friday into Saturday due to timing uncertainties. The cold front will usher in much cooler and more seasonal temperatures for the end of the work week through the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18Z Monday...VFR/SKC through the period under light winds less than 10 kts. Only exception will be areas of late night/early morning IFR/LIFR FG at KMPV and KSLK terminals in the 06-13Z time frame. Some patchy/brief MVFR BR also possible at the KMSS terminal during this time frame, but confidence not as high given mixed mesoscale signals in the hi-resolution models. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. Patchy FG. Tuesday: VFR. Patchy FG. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures and year recorded for the period Sunday Sep 24 to Wednesday Sep 27 Day Burlington Massena Montpelier 9/24 84 / 1961 87 / 2010 83 / 1961 9/25 85 / 1891 90 / 2007 85 / 2007 9/26 84 / 1934 82 / 1970 83 / 2007 9/27 83 / 1920 82 / 2003 80 / 2007 For Burlington, here are the latest in the year dates for reaching specific temperature thresholds 90F or higher: 9/16/1939 88F or higher: 9/22/1965 87F or higher: 9/23/1895 86F or higher: 9/23/1895 (was 87F that day) && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...NRR/Deal LONG TERM...NRR AVIATION...JMG CLIMATE...BTV

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