Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 041134 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 634 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cloudy skies and lingering morning flurries will give way to partial sunshine by later today as weak high pressure bridges across the area. Weakening upper energy will then spread into the region on Monday with widespread light snow and flurries expected. The weather remains active as we progress through the work week with several additional systems bringing renewed chances of light rain and snow. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 634 AM EST Sunday...Minor adjustments were made to sky cover as of 630 am, and to introduce scattered flurries on the Vermont side of the Champlain Valley through mid-morning per latest radar returns showing weak lake streamer development. Otherwise the forecast remains in good shape. Have a great day. Prior discussion... A rather typical early December weather pattern continues today with plenty of cloud cover and lingering chances of northern mountain flurries, at least through early afternoon. Weak high pressure will be building into the area through time, but modest northwesterly flow combined with lingering shallow moisture trapped beneath a persistent synoptic inversion near 850 mb should be a hindrance to more pronounced clearing. Some afternoon sun should be realized in the broader valleys toward mid to late afternoon however as flow trends light. High temperatures close to blended guidance with values in the upper 20s to lower 30s in mountain communities, and lower to mid 30s in the broader valleys. By tonight clouds will thin to partly cloudy in all areas for a brief time as aforementioned surface high quickly traverses through the area. This will be short-lived however as thickening clouds return quickly from the south and west after midnight with approach of a dampening upper level trough and associated vorticity advection/warm thermal advection. Models remain generally consistent with timing of this system with light precipitation overspreading the southwestern half of the forecast area by sunrise on Monday. Thermal profiles plenty cold enough such that p-type will be all of the light snow/flurry variety with a light accumulation of a dusting to perhaps an inch across these areas per blended qpf/GEFS plume output. Low temperatures a bit tricky depending on how much clearing is realized this evening and degree to which thickening clouds put a halt on readings later tonight, but a general idea of 15 to 20 in the mountains and lower to mid 20s in the valleys appears reasonably close at this point. Winds light.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 320 AM EST Sunday...Upper level trof and weak surface low to cross our forecast area on Monday. Will see widespread light snow with this feature, though not significant accumulations. Have indicated high probabilities but low snow totals, generally two inches or less across the area from early Monday morning through about midnight Monday night. Later Monday night and Tuesday will once again feature building heights with surface and upper level ridging over the North country, dry weather is expected. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals through the short term. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 AM EST Sunday...Tuesday night and Wednesday will bring the next precipitation to the region with a weak surface low and shortwave energy crossing the forecast area. Have mentioned light snow likely. Models still indicating that this system will remain unphased with northern stream energy over the northern plains. Still looks like it will be warm enough Wed afternoon for precipitation to mix with rain in the Champlain and Saint Lawrence valleys. Precipitation will shut down later Wednesday afternoon. From Wednesday night onward there is not very much agreement between GFS and ECMWF leading to a lower confidence forecast. Large upper level trof will develop over the central conus and move Eastward through the end of the week. GFS wants to develop a low off the New England coast on Thursday while ECMWF brings a low pressure system across our CWA on Thursday night. By Friday looks like whichever low will be off the coast of New Foundland and our forecast area will have some wrap around Northwesterly flow snow showers for Friday through Saturday. Aforementioned upper level low will bring coldest air of the season so far, though only slightly below seasonal normals for max and min temperatures. Drier weather is then expected for Saturday night and Sunday. Looking even further out, despite some differences both GFS and ECMWF show a low pressure system near the Long Island coast by 12z Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
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Through 12Z Monday...BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR through 18Z, trending SCT VFR from 18-00Z. A few flurries here and there through 18Z as well but no appreciable restrictions to visibility. Higher terrain will be obscured through 18Z as well. Skies trend SKC by 00Z with thickening/lowering OVC returning after 06Z Monday and light snows/IFR arriving at KSLK/KMSS late in the forecast cycle. Winds west to northwesterly 5 to 10 knots, trending light after 21Z. 12Z Monday through 00Z Tuesday...Widespread MVFR/IFR in periods of light snow/flurries. Precipitation may mix with light rain at KBTV/KPBG/KRUT after 17Z. 00Z Tuesday through 12Z Tuesday...BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR with scattered flurries. 12Z Tuesday through 06Z Wednesday...VFR/high pressure. 06Z Wednesday through 00Z Thursday...trending MVFR/IFR in rain/snow showers. 00Z Thursday onward...Mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR in periods of light rain/snow.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...JMG

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