Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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448 FXUS61 KBTV 311909 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 309 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will push across northern Vermont and New York with little fanfare early this evening. Seasonably warm temperatures and low humidity levels will continue into Wednesday. The next chance for precipitation isn`t until Thursday afternoon and evening as a cold front sparks showers and possible thunderstorms. Temperatures remain generally seasonable Friday into the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 307 PM EDT Tuesday...Weak area of high pressure remains in control across central and southern VT, while a cold front is located near the Canadian border and is mainly resulting in a greater areal coverage of cumulus clouds. Expect the front to continue to progress eastward across the northern areas into the evening. Associated cloud cover - roughly from Saranac Lake to Montpelier eastward to the NH border - will initially limit stronger radiative cooling this evening but should clear late this evening into the overnight. While a period of north winds 10-15 mph is expected for a brief time after frontal passage, winds will eventually go light northerly. Radiational fog is likely in the favored locations overnight given favorable hydrolapse profiles and light boundary-layer winds. 925 mb temps dip to around +9 to +11C overnight. Stuck with a blend of MOS-based and bias- corrected temps for mins this evening, ranging from the upper 30s/low 40s in the Adirondacks up to the lower 50s in the Champlain Valley. Shaping up to be another outstanding day weatherwise on Wednesday under ridge of high pressure and mid-tropospheric height rises. Abundant sunshine to be the rule with any fair weather cumulus to be closely tied to the terrain. Looking at highs once again in the 70s to lower 80s with comfortable humidity levels. Winds generally light northerly and strongly governed by lake breeze and terrain influences.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 336 AM EDT Tuesday...Ridge of high pressure will crest over the region on Wednesday. This will result in dry conditions, warm temperatures and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. As 925mb temperatures increase to the mid teens, surface temperatures will reach the 70s to low 80s on Wednesday. Areas east of the Greens may be slightly cooler as models trying to indicate some light easterly to southeasterly flow may bring some maritime are into eastern Vermont. Wednesday night will remain dry and mild with increasing clouds ahead of low pressure system and associated cold front approaching from the west. Aforementioned ridge will shift east over the Canadian maritimes, bringing return southerly flow to the North Country. Min temperatures will generally be in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 336 AM EDT Tuesday...Potential for rain showers and thunderstorms increase on Thursday as low pressure system nears. A weak warm front will graze Northern New York, with increasing POPs throughout the day, while the Champlain Valley and areas east are expected to remain dry. Max temperatures will be slightly warmer and dependent on cloud cover, ranging from the 70s to low-mid 80s. Cold front associated with the low is expected to move across the region Thursday night through Friday. Depending on timing, thunderstorms could develop. While bulk of energy exits the North Country to the south and east late Friday/Friday night, models indicate another vort at 500mb moving through late Friday night/early Saturday morning which will keep slight to low chance POPs over the area. High pressure arrives for the bulk of the weekend, providing a break in precip potential, before a long wave mid-level trough digs southward from the Great Lakes Region. Models show some differences with regard to evolution, track and timing of this system. Similarities exist in the surface low becoming a cut-off low and could lead to a wet first half of the week. Temperatures throughout the period will remain above normal by 5-10 degrees for this time of year. && .AVIATION /19Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/... Through 18z Wednesday...VFR through afternoon and early evening, trending VFR with LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK overnight. Conditions trend all VFR into Wednesday. CLear skies and gusty west winds will continue through the late afternoon. Should see an increase to SCT/BKN VFR cloud cover in response to a cold front that will move across the TAFs by late aftn into mid-evening. Expect a wind shift to north around 10-12 kts then dissipating to under 5 kts by midnight. Mostly clear skies, light/calm winds and antecedent wet ground from rains of a couple of days ago should once again yield areas of radiational fog at SLK and MPV. Recent guidance suggests that crossover temps should be met around 06z, and I`ve thus started fog around this point for these two sites. Any fog then clears rapidly by 12z Wednesday to VFR few/sct fair weather cu. Winds north 3-7 kts. Outlook 18Z Wednesday through Sunday... VFR conditions with overnight IFR/LIFR fog at MPV/SLK to continue through Wednesday night. VFR with gusty south winds likely on Thursday, trending MVFR by evening associated with showers/storms with a cold front passage. VFR to then prevail Friday into the weekend, with chances for IFR/LIFR fog each evening at MPV/SLK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Loconto NEAR TERM...Loconto SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Loconto

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