Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 250601 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 201 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A quiet night is expected across the North Country overnight with no precipitation and little in the way of cloud cover. Conditions will change on Tuesday as a southerly flow brings moisture into the region...first with increasing clouds...then precipitation during the afternoon Tuesday and continuing Tuesday night. The showers will taper off on Wednesday with warmer and drier conditions developing Thursday into Friday. Showers may return late in the day on Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
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As of 201 AM EDT Tuesday...Forecast in good shape, so no changes have been made. As of 1058 PM EDT Monday...Forecast remains in good shape with cloud cover just beginning to move into the southern counties of Vermont. The bulk of the rainfall still looks to arrive shortly after day break and so I continued the trend of slowing down how quickly we ramped up the rain chance overnight. With easterly winds tomorrow expect it to be quite chilly over south and eastern Vermont as the source air will be coming from the Atlantic where the water temps are still quite chilly for late April. Previous discussion follows: Return moist flow from High pressure to our north and the surface low will bring in showers to the region in a few waves on Tuesday. It will be a cool, damp raw especially across eastern and southern VT with a good easterly maritime flow. There will be a first wave of scattered light showers with the initial first surge of moisture and then as we get caught into the inverted trof from the coastal low a bit more numerous or pronounce showers Tuesday night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 359 AM EDT Monday...Surface/Stacked low eventually departs with best chance of showers across central-eastern VT during Wednesday, decreasing in coverage during Wednesday. Slow clearing from west to east Wednesday night, likely holding off til Thursday for much of VT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 331 PM EDT Monday...Rain showers associated with coastal low pressure will exit east and strong southerly flow will affect the North Country Thursday. Some lingering clouds may limit warming over eastern Vermont, but generally expect temperatures in the 70s and in the mid 70s to around 80 in the St Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. Cooling trend starts with the next chance for rain late Thursday night into early Friday as surface low pressure moves from the central Great Lakes region northwestward towards James Bay Friday morning. Possible cold front or pre-frontal trough associated with this system could bring convective activity on Friday. Lots of disparity amongst model guidance with this system and further into the weekend. Commonalities exist with blocking Bermuda high developing at the surface, which brings a moisture plume from the Gulf toward the Northeast. This could bring another chance for precip on Saturday as the GFS and ECMWF have energy at 500mb moving from SW towards southern Quebec. This is reflected at the surface as a cold front with northerly flow setting up in the front`s wake. On Sunday, Canadian high pressure centered around James Bay will retreat north and east as strengthening closed surface low moves up the Mississippi Valley reaching the Great Lakes by Monday morning. A warm front ahead of the low looks to bring more showers late Sunday. GFS and ECMWF in better agreement with regards to this system. Still differences on track, strength, etc. Overall expect this system to be capable of producing heavy rainfall as moisture from the Gulf rides up the ahead of the cold front and strong winds possible from tight pressure gradient and strengthening of low. The surface low pressure center looks to track to our north and west towards Hudsons Bay sometime on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 06Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected through 00Z Wednesday. Satellite loop and surface observations showing mainly high cirrus clouds across the region at this time (06Z Tuesday). Expecting ceilings to slowly lower through the day. Bufkit forecast soundings showing fairly dry conditions across the region, so it will likely take a while to saturate the lower levels of the atmosphere. Expecting any rain shower activity will likely not reach the surface until late this afternoon or this evening. Expecting mainly MVFR conditions in rain showers after 00Z Wednesday. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...TSRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Evenson/SLW SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...WGH/SLW

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