Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KBTV 281525
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1125 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
The Memorial Day weekend will continue to see warm temperatures
with highs on the order of 10 to 20 degrees above normal. In
addition...higher dew points will lead to more humid conditions
and the threat for showers and thunderstorms will
exist...especially on Sunday and Memorial Day.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 1122 AM EDT Saturday...
The current forecast remains in good shape with temps already
warming into the lower 80s. With the ridge in place and warmer
925mb temps I concur with the previous forecast of upper 80s to a
few spot 90`s across the Saint Lawrence and Champlain valleys.
Hope you get a chance to enjoy the start of Memorial Day weekend.
Previous discussion...North country remains under upper level
ridge today and tonight. Another very warm day is on tap as 925
temps reach to near 20c. Feel that we`ll once again reach 90 here
in the Champlain Valley. Believe we will have some very isolated
convection this afternoon with a focus near a lake breeze off Lake
Champlain...and also in the higher terrain. PWATS will be
increasing over the next couple periods. lows tonight will be will
generally be in the lower 60s across the area.
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.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 333 AM EDT Saturday...Most active period then takes shape
by later Sunday into Sunday night with the approach of a longwave
trough and its interaction with deep tropospheric moisture. The
first half of the day should be more of the same with partly
sunny, warm and modestly humid conditions with widely scattered
terrain-driven showers/isolated storms. A few record high
temperatures may again be threatened (see climate section at
bottom). As mid level heights begin to fall by later in the day
and toward evening expect a broader coverage of showers/storms to
develop and continue into Sunday night as upper trough approaches.
Anomalously high pwats in excess of 1.5 to 2.0 inches combined
with a deep moist-neutral airmass to near 30 kft all spell at
least the potential of locally heavy rainfall across the area,
especially from the Adirondacks eastward where some interaction
with the moisture plume from TD #2 may occur Sunday night. Will
thus introduce this idea along with other surrounding NWS offices
per intra-site coordination this morning. While antecedent dry
conditions should preclude a widespread flood threat, localized
hydrological concerns will be a possibility during this period. As
we progress into Monday the upper trough pulls east with a drier,
more stable airmass filtering into the region over time and
precipitation chances lowering accordingly. In regard to
temperatures I leaned close to blended MOS-based and bias-
corrected data offering highs on Sunday in the 80s to locally near
90F in the Champlain/St Lawrence Valleys, then somewhat cooler
from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday with more tolerable
humidity levels. Overnight lows Sunday night mainly in the 58 to
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 333 AM EDT Saturday...The period from Monday night onward
through Thursday of next week will be dominated by surface high
pressure with generally fair weather, light winds and tolerable
humidity levels. Temperatures will remain several degrees above
normal, continuing the present trend that`s been established over
the past week or so. Highs should mainly range from the mid 70s to
lower 80s each afternoon with overnight lows generally in the 50s
to around 60.
By late week, a slightly more vigorous northern stream trough and
attendant surface front will make a run into the northeastern third
of the nation. As this feature approaches expect a renewed threat of
showers from Friday into next Saturday.
.AVIATION /16Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 12z Sunday...Generally VFR conditions through the TAF
period...with SCT mid-upper level clouds. light and variable
winds...becoming light NW-N. An isolated shower or t-storm is
possible this afternoon, but limited coverage/probability
precludes any mention in the TAFs at this point. Areas with the
greatest chance for any showers or thunderstorm activity will be
the Adirondacks, southern Champlain Valley into South-Central
Outlook 12z Sunday through Wednesday... Mainly VFR with a daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Sunday and Monday
time frame. Best chance for a dry day will be Wednesday.
Record maximum temperatures for Saturday 5/28 and Sunday 5/29 are as
BTV - Burlington 92 in 1978 89 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier 88 in 1978 87 in 1978
MSS - Massena 89 in 1978 90 in 1978
St Johnsbury 93 in 1978 92 in 1978
Mt Mansfield 77 in 1978 77 in 1978