Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 280754 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 354 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISOLATED TO SCATTED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT THROUGH TODAY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE COLD DRY AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 350 AM EDT SATURDAY... OVERNIGHT RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE LOCALIZED SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF AS THEY RUN INTO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SO THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION IT WILL BRING COLD DRY AIR UNDER NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW. THUS TODAY WE WILL SEE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. OLD MAN WINTER SEEMS TO WANT TO GIVE US ONE LAST TASTE OF THE COLD BEFORE FINALLY RELEASING US TO SPRING. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE, CHAMPLAIN, AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS AND WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER TEENS ALONG THE HIGHER SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 350 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AND BE GONE LATE SATURDAY EARLY SUNDAY GIVING WAY TO COLD DRY HIGH PRESSURE. THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP BRINGING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN CANADA OVERNIGHT BEFORE TOMORROW THE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT SHIFT IN THE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS BEFORE WARMING TO THE UPPER 30S SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEGINNING A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MOVING TOWARDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE EXPECT THE TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN THE EVENING. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW WITH OVERCAST SKIES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 347 PM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF OUR AREA MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THEN ENDING. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH LACKING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SO HAVE DROPPED POPS TO JUST A CHANCE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALSO. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS IN THE COLDER AREAS. WED AND WED NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER THE AREA. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WED AND WED PM WILL BE SIMILAR TO MON AND TUE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WEST SOUTHWESTERLY...A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA AND WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES THU THROUGH FRI WILL TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR MIN TEMPS. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD IN MOIST NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. WEAK MID- LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS WRN NY/WRN PA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD TODAY...RESULTING IN ISOLD TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. EARLY THIS MORNING...SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOST PREVALENT ON THE NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT PBG/SLK. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS...THOUGH LOCALLY IFR AT RUT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH SUNRISE...THEN GUSTING 16-20KTS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD VFR LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD ALSO SEE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS AREAWIDE. OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS. 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY INCLUDING SLK/MPV)...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES. 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...BANACOS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.