Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 291850 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 250 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AFTER ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 244 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...500-1500 J/KG OF CAPE HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ENOUGH LIFT WAS GENERATED TO BREAK THE CAP. THIS HAS OCCURRED MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH MINIMAL SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS 0-6KM)...NO SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. ACTIVITY WILL WANE AS THE SUN SETS AND INSTABILITY LESSENS. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE WEST TOWARDS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS APPROACH SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY AS SUNRISE NEARS. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 22-24C RANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD...WITH LOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO INCREASED WIND FIELD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 244 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...INITIAL FRONT/DEW POINT BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BRINGING A QUICK PERIOD OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT TIMING LOOKS TO BE 12-16Z ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK...16-19Z IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND 18-22Z ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD INTO VERMONT...AND ESPECIALLY POINTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE. FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE TOO EARLY FOR SEVERE. CURRENT MODELS INDICATING ROUGHLY 500-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING BY 18Z FROM THE CHAMPLAIN EASTWARD...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF ABOUT 30-40 KNOTS. WHILE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION WITH A SCATTERED SEVERE THREAT. WIND SHEAR IS MOSTLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...SO PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FROM BOWING SEGMENTS. WITH THE EARLY ONSET OF CONVECTION...AN OFFICIAL HEAT WAVE IS NOT FORECAST AT BTV...WITH HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE 80S. PARTS OF SOUTHEAST VERMONT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ANOTHER 90 DEGREE DAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND AND EVENTUALLY CROSSES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THUS THE COOLER AIR WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING IN...AND WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 60S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. BY FRIDAY...WESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HOWEVER THE NEXT VORT IN CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALREADY BE APPROACHING NORTHERN NEW YORK BY EVENING AS A LARGE CLOSED LOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...MAINLY THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WIND FIELD WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE QUITE STRONG...SO A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...MAINLY 75-85F. THE CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 310 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING IN REGARDS TO THE UPCOMING PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL MODELS REMAINING IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A LARGE-SCALE POLAR UPPER LOW TAKING RESIDENCE OVER HUDSONS BAY. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHEAST IN A PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. FIRST PIECE MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS ENERGY COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH WITH THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING AND LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RAINFALL SHOULD BE SHOWERY IN NATURE AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE PERIOD STILL LOOK TO BE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A COUPLE STRONGER SHORTWAVES SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS A BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTHWEST (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT KPBG/KRUT) AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY, GOING CALM AGAIN AFTER 00Z. WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE PICK UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FOG AT KSLK BUT STILL POSSIBLE AT KMPV. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALG/AHD COLD FRONT IN NRN NY BETWEEN 14-17Z AND AFT 17Z IN VT. OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 18Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE. 00Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG. 12Z SAT - 00Z MON: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...SLW

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