Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281751 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 151 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE AREA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1240 PM EDT THURSDAY...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST AGAIN TO INCREASE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN RUTLAND...WINDSOR AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN VERMONT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. UPDATED FORECAST THIS MORNING TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. CURRENTLY SOME SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT...WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THAT IN THE ADIRONDACKS AHEAD OF ACTUAL COLD FRONT. STILL FEEL THAT SEVERE RISK FOR TODAY IS MARGINAL...THOUGH HAVE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. CURRENTLY NOTING SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES IN QUEBEC...BUT NONE CLOSER THAN THAT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 426 AM EDT THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. GFS MODEL CONTINUE TO BE FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL WITH THIS COLD FRONT. THUS...SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS THE SAME FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTERS LINE OF THINKING FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE LINE OF SHOWERS FROM THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SO THERE WILL ONLY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF VERMONT AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ALIGNED IN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL VERMONT. NEARLY ALL THE INSTABILITY WILL BE GONE AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABILIZED BEHIND THE FRONT SO THE DECENT SHEAR OVER CANADA WILL ALL BE WELL NORTH OF ANY INSTABILITY. AFTER THE LINGERING SHOWERS PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST REGION RESULTING IN DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPS TO SEE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE 60S AND BY WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 80S IN THE VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FROST AS TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S TO UPPER 30S. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST DOESN`T INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF FROST BECAUSE TEMPS WILL HOVER ABOVE 36 DEGREES ON MONDAY. FROM THERE WE WILL SEE THE GRADUAL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THE BIGGEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER MPV AND RUT THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR MPV/RUT WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTING. OTHERWISE...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT TOWARD SUNSET. PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK AND MAYBE RUTLAND... ESPECIALLY WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM TODAY. SOIL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SATURATED ENOUGH THAT WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT LIGHT FOG COULD DEVELOP. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK AND RUTLAND ON SATURDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH/NEILES SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...DEAL/TABER

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