Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 290134 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 934 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER COOLER WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 934 PM EDT THURSDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THUS HAVE SLOWED THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL AS THE CLEARING ACROSS VERMONT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 430 PM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED DOWN WITH THIS FEATURE AND BRING THE FRONT THROUGH AFTER 00Z SUNDAY NOW. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. PWATS WILL BE HIGH AS A FEED OFF THE GULF STREAMS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONLY MODEST LAPSE RATES THOUGH...PRETTY WEAK INSTABILITY...THOUGH SOME CAPE DOES SHOW UP ON THE SREF AND NAM. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF PASSES WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...FEEL STRONGER STORMS MAY COINCIDE AND REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS THE SAME FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTERS LINE OF THINKING FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE LINE OF SHOWERS FROM THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SO THERE WILL ONLY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF VERMONT AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ALIGNED IN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL VERMONT. NEARLY ALL THE INSTABILITY WILL BE GONE AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABILIZED BEHIND THE FRONT SO THE DECENT SHEAR OVER CANADA WILL ALL BE WELL NORTH OF ANY INSTABILITY. AFTER THE LINGERING SHOWERS PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST REGION RESULTING IN DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPS TO SEE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE 60S AND BY WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 80S IN THE VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FROST AS TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S TO UPPER 30S. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST DOESN`T INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF FROST BECAUSE TEMPS WILL HOVER ABOVE 36 DEGREES ON MONDAY. FROM THERE WE WILL SEE THE GRADUAL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...STILL HAVE LEFTOVER MVFR STRATUS AROUND AT SLK AND MPV, BUT TAFS SHOULD GO VFR IN SHORT ORDER. OUTSIDE OF SOME RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST AT SLK MPV AND MSS, VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE NOW OVER ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL CLEAR OUT ANY LEFTOVER STRATUS THROUGH 03Z, WITH ALL TAFS GOING VFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. AVIATION FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR MIST/FOG. AT SLK, PRESENT T/TD SPREAD IS 3 DEGREES AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL BELOW CROSSOVER READINGS BY 03Z. GIVEN WET GROUND FROM TODAY`S EARLIER SHOWERS/STORMS AND AFOREMENTIONED NARROW T/TD SPREAD, FEEL BEST SHOT AT LIFR FOG IS AT SLK AND I`VE SHOWN SUCH IN TEMPO GROUP. I`VE ALSO INDICATED 1-3 SM BR AT 06Z AT MPV AS CLEARING LOOKS TO BE A BIT LATER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GO LIGHT/VARIABLE. ANY MIST/FOG BURNS OFF QUICKLY ONCE INSOLATION BEGINS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH VFR/FEW FAIR WX CU DOTTING THE TAFS THEREAFTER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS INITIALLY, BECOMING SOUTHERLY UNDER 10 KTS LATER IN THE DAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK AND RUTLAND ON SATURDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO

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