Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 290745 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 345 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE! HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS GENERALLY 5-10 KTS. SLIGHT WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH MAX TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH 12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A WARM SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNING TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THROUGH MID-WEEK THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LARGELY BE DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT RESULTING IN ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS RUN ANYWHERE FROM 15-22C RESPECTIVELY SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE, BUT A FEW MODELS HAVE HINTED OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY SO RAINFALL SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED BUT HAVE HIGHLIGHTED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

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