Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 220526 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 126 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1034 PM EDT MONDAY...LAST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IS DISSIPATING AT 0230Z ACROSS WRN RUTLAND COUNTY...AND MAY BRING JUST A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU/CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER 04Z ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 59-65F...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY CONTROLLED BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC FEATURES...AND LOCALLY REMAINING SOUTH AROUND 5-7 KTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS. ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM 11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME...AS THESE STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY. CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE 40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR FOG/MIST AT SLK AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AT MPV...OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREA OF SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF VERMONT WILL HELP DELAY MIST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MPV UNTIL AFTER 08Z WHEN THOSE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT/MOVE EAST. BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT AT MPV/SLK IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO TERRAIN. WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS TOWARDS TUESDAY EVENING PARTICULARLY AT MSS AND SLK. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TUESDAY GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 06Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. POSSIBLE MARGINAL LLWS AT MSS AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. 12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. 06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. 00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.