Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 190721 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 321 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will dominate our weather for the week. The high pressure will also keep Jose well south of New England, so all that we will see is an increase in clouds and chances for showers across central and southern Vermont late Tuesday and Wednesday. The rest of the region will remain dry this week. The high pressure will also keep temperatures above normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 505 PM EDT Monday...Modest update for late afternoon/early evening to increase pops across the southern Champlain Valley and the western Adirondacks per greater coverage of shower activity than prior indications. Could be a stray rumble of thunder, but lapse rates aloft aren`t all that impressive - limiting overall updraft strength. A few of the showers could put down brief heavier downpours through sunset as evidenced by prior MRMS estimates of between 0.50 and 1.50 inches in southwestern Rutland County in the Lake St. Catherine/Wells/Poultney areas. The rest of the forecast remains on track as of 500 pm so no other adjustments needed at this point. Enjoy your evening! Prior discussion... Forecast in decent shape for the afternoon. Did make some minor adjustments based on latest radar trends for placement of the initial small showers that have bubbled up over the higher terrain. HRRR still seems the best of the convective models, so followed it`s lead. Given the moisture depth is not all that much and the amount of mid level dry air in place, the isolated showers we get will remain across the higher terrain and will not last long nor bring any significant precipitation. And 0% chance of thunder. Temperatures across the region are at or above previously forecast highs, so did adjust upward a couple of degrees. It appears the smoke layer aloft is just a bit thinner than it was yesterday, so we are getting just a little bit more insolation to warm things up. Well, at least that is my theory. Winds remain light, though there is a tendancy for them to turn southeast across Vermont in response to Jose well to the south. Overnight: expecting another quiet night, with areas of fog once again developing, especially in the more normal fog areas. Lows again well above normal, with 50s to lower 60s. Tuesday: Watching for low level moisture from the Atlantic being advected westward into portions of eastern Vermont. More guidance is picking up on this, and given the flow around Jose, it does make sense. Thus expecting it to end up being a "murky" looking day for southeast Vermont with low stratus hanging tough, even after the morning fog lifts. The clouds will also have an impact on temperatures, and continued with the idea of only in the lower 70s down around Springfield, while near 80F/low 80s in the Champlain Valley and points westward. Looks like that Atlantic moisture gets deep enough for some light rain showers by afternoon. Liked how the NAM and NAM3km are handling it, so used a model blend to drive the hourly PoP/weather evoluton. Tuesday night: 12z guidance didn`t suggest anything much different than what we previously had. Looking at 35-50% chance of light rain for roughly a St J to Rutland line and points south. That should be the farthest northwest any rain shield from Jose should make it. Even then, the rain won`t be heavy. Maybe upwards of 1/4" of rain. Otherwise we are too far away to see any strong winds. Once again, overnight lows will be above normal with 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for latest track and guidance on Hurricane Jose. Jose pulls away from the east coast and looks to have diminishing potential influence for the short term as the main weather driver as the large upper ridge shifting in from the west that will be in control. This will lead to another quiet and dry day for Thursday, though temperatures will be slightly cooler with northerly flow over the region. Even still temps will still be above seasonal norms with highs in the 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...As mentioned before, the large upper ridge will dominate our weather through next weekend. Most of the models continue to want to loop Jose ESE from New England and as it loops south-southeast this just allows the Upper Ridge to build in more. This leads to unseasonably mild and dry weather for late week and weekend with highs starting in the mid-upper 70s to mid 80s by weekend with lows in 40s/50s. Looking beyond this period, with a looping Jose or remnants of Jose, Maria looms in the distance and could have potential impacts for the US next week.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR through most of the period with a few exceptions. 1) Brief MVFR conds possible in lingering shower activity across the Adirondacks through 02Z. 2) Patchy br/fg and IFR/LIFR likely at KMPV/KSLK after 05Z, possible at KPBG/KMSS though confidence lower at these latter terminals. 3) BKN/OVC MVFR marine stratus may encroach northward into eastern/southern VT after 06Z. Confidence low/moderate on how far north and west this progresses overnight, but models do show a pronounced southeasterly surge of 15-20 kts above 800ft tonight so time will tell. If this surge is more pronounced than currently forecast, then br/fg/ifr threat at KMPV would be lower later tonight. After 12Z Tuesday...mainly VFR under light/modest east/southeasterly flow from 5-10 kts, though again, if marine stratus advances further northwest than currently forecast, lower MVFR cigs could linger at southern/eastern terminals such as KMPV/KVSF etc. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Nash NEAR TERM...JMG/Nash SHORT TERM...Verasamy LONG TERM...Verasamy AVIATION...JMG

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