Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271156 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 656 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 635 AM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES AT 630 AM WERE TO MATCH CURRENT T/TD TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA. I AM GROWING A BIT CONCERNED ON OUR SNOWFALL TOTALS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD WITH LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL TEND TO OVERCOME MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FOSTERING A GENERAL EROSION OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD ACROSS OUR AREA. ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NORTHWEST IS APPEARING TO BE BLOCKED BY THE INTENSE MESOSCALE BAND ACROSS EC/SE NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS NOT AN UNCOMMON OCCURRENCE...BUT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT UNTIL IT DEVELOPS. WE`LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS BUT NO CHANGES AT THIS POINT. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 321 AM EST TUESDAY... INTENSE STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE 3-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 8 MB JUST NORTH OF THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK PER MOST RECENT MSAS ANALYSIS. A CLASSIC MILLER-B EVOLUTION WITH INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING FEATURES PIVOTING SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ERN MA/CT/LI. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO TOTAL QPF/SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST CAM OUTPUT INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR ALL COMING ON BOARD WITH FAIRLY REALISTIC SOLUTIONS SHOWING WESTERN EDGE OF STEADIER SNOWS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH AND WEST INTO VT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE PROGRESSES. MOST PROBLEMATIC IS THE VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA. INDEED...LOW TO MID LEVEL DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE LOW THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS OF MOISTENING BEFORE STEADIER SNOWS REACH THE CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. REMAINING DRY IN NRN NY UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES. OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES. WHAT THIS ALL SPELLS IS A STEADY 5-10/6-12 INCH SNOWFALL FOR OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF IN SNOW TOTALS NORTH AND WEST. A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF 3-7 INCHES STILL PROGGED FROM ABOUT MIDDLEBURY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONTPELIER AND ST JOHNSBURY...AND A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FROM ESSEX COUNTY NY NORTHEAST INTO THE BURLINGTON/PLATTSBURGH VICINITY AND ST ALBANS/FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FROM A SARANAC LAKE TO MALONE LINE WEST. THIS IS MORE OR LESS STAYING THE COURSE AND WE`RE NOW INTO THE WAIT AND SEE TIMEFRAME TO SEE HOW THIS ALL PANS OUT. ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. BY TONIGHT OCCLUDED CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD YARMOUTH, NS WITH WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN GRADUALLY FADING AWAY ACROSS OUR AREA AS DEEPER LIFT AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WANE. SOME LIGHT TAIL-END ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST...OTHERWISE TRENDING DRY OVERNIGHT. DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES A TAD MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS GIVEN CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES AND NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...MAINLY POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS...LOCALLY A BIT COLDER FAR WEST WHERE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR. SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT, EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES. ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AS SNOW SPREADS NORTHWESTWARD THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AND SNOW TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 12-15Z...KMPV 13- 15Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR. SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING KRUT/KMPV 14Z- 22Z...KBTV/KPBG 17Z-21Z AND KSLK 18Z-23Z. SNOW WILL LIGHTEN AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SETTLING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT/05Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR AS SNOWFALL COMES TO AN END. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 6-12KTS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AROUND 25KTS BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST. EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING. OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES STATES. 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012- 019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004- 007>009-018. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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