Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBTV 231814
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
114 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017
A wintry mix of precipitation will overspread the North Country
after midnight tonight and become heavy at times during the
Tuesday Morning commute. An extremely hazardous Tuesday Morning
commute is anticipated with the icy roads and poor
visibilities. A plowable snow and sleet accumulation is
likely...along with some ice. Improving weather with above
normal temperatures return by Wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1214 PM EST Monday...Minor update to capture latest
surface trends through the rest of today. This included bumping
temps up several degrees cpv and down several ticks over the
Northeast Kingdom. Rest of forecast remains unchanged with this
update. A complete discussion with latest thinking regarding the
messy winter storm will be issued with this afternoon`s
Still an extremely complex and complicated forecast with regards
to precip type and associated accumulations. NAM continues to
support a warm layer around 5000 feet of 4 to 6c air...while
cold layer around 2000 to 3000 feet is between -2c and
-4c...supporting mostly sleet/freezing rain. Meanwhile...GFS
cools the column associated with strong dynamics and supports
mostly a snow event...with some light mix as steadier/heavier
precip tapers off on Tuesday Afternoon.
In our forecast we have taking the middle of the road approach
using an ensemble model blend for thermal profiles and
associated precip type. This supports a mixed bag of snow and
sleet initially...with areas of freezing rain...especially
toward Tuesday midday. Total snow/sleet accumulations of 2 to 6
inches is our current forecast with ice accumulation of one to
two tenths possible...especially eastern/central vt...including
the northeast Kingdom. Expecting the heaviest precip to occur
right during the Tuesday morning commute...so an extremely
hazardous morning commute is expected.
Also...expect localized gusts between 30 and 40 mph along the
southern Green Mountains from East Middlebury to Mt Holly late
tonight into Tuesday.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 303 AM EST Monday...Stacked closed low pressure system
off the southern coast of Long Island will gradually move north
and east as associated trough and vorticity continues to affect
the North Country Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Colder
air over Northern NY will result in mostly snow showers while
eastern VT will continue to have warm layer aloft resulting in
sleet or snow/sleet mix Tuesday night. Expect colder air to
filter in on W to NW flow Wednesday morning as the surface low
moves toward Gulf of Maine/Nova Scotia. Lingering upslope snow
possible before ridging aloft provides a break in precip most of
Wednesday. Snow/sleet accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches
possible, with higher amounts in the mtns possible. Temperatures
in the 20s Tuesday night will warm into the 30s on Wednesday.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 303 AM EST Monday...Late Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night, another area of surface low pressure will bring
precipitation to the North Country. This low will be associated
with 500mb shortwave with bulk of energy and moisture being to
our south and east. Therefore, only expecting light rain and/or
snow showers. Several more shortwaves move through the area as
eastern North America remains under the influence of mid level
trough. This will result in chance for snow showers throughout
the remainder of the period. Temperatures will also trend cooler
but remain above normal by about 5 degrees.
.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 12z Tuesday...MVFR ceilings across the area should lift
shortly and we see a break in cloud cover through the rest of
the afternoon. Then conditions deteriorate rapidly to a mix of
low MVFR/IFR as wintry precip moves in overnight. The forecast
trend continues to show the precip moving in late overnight
between 03-06z in southern Vermont and between 09-12z across
central and northern Vermont and across Northern New York.
Expect a variety of precip types with a mix of rain/snow/sleet
and freezing rain possible. Additionally with the icing layers
just off the surface conditions could be dicey with icing in
the low levels of the atmosphere. An easterly low level jet is
expected to create gusty winds at RUT and also cause issues with
low level turbulence and wind shear due to the speed
differences from the ground to 2500-3000 feet agl.
Outlook 18z Tuesday through Saturday...
18z Tuesday - 12z Wednesday: MVFR/IFR trending towards VFR/MVFR
as the wintry precip tapers off Tuesday evening.
12z Wednesday - 12z Thursday: VFR with skies becoming cloudy
12z Thursday onwards: Generally VFR with on and off chances of
MVFR in periods of rain and snow showers.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST
Tuesday for VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST
Tuesday for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.