Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 051411 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 911 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weakening warm front lifts across the North Country today with widespread light snowfall through midday. The snow is expected to result in some travel slowdowns during the morning commute. Weather will remain active as we move through the work week with several additional systems bringing renewed chances of light rain and snow. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 912 AM EST Monday...Radar shows band of moderate snow with snowfall rates up to 1 inch per lifting across northern ny/vt attm. This poorly timed band of snow caused plenty of problems with the morning commute across the North Country. Conditions will improve as snow becomes lighter and mainly terrain focused by this afternoon. Total snow accumulations general 1 to 3 inches...but some isolated 4 or 5 inch amounts possible across northern NY into parts of northern VT...given fluff factor. Have one report from our media friends of 5.5 inches near Fairfax...which looks reasonable given the duration the heavier band has stayed across northern VT. Water vapor shows well defined short wave energy lifting across northern NY now...with sharp drying behind this energy over central NY. The combination of drying aloft and best lift associated with warm air advection moving away from our cwa will result in lighter snow and precip becoming more scattered in nature by late this morning. Also...helping to weaken snowfall across the cpv will be developing southwest downslope flow of 30 to 40 knots per latest KTYX VAD profile at 925 and 850mb. Still expecting another couple hours of steady light snow...but additional accumulations an inch or two at most. All these elements are covered very well in current forecast. Temps with slowly climb to near 30f champlain and saint lawrence valleys with mid/upper 20s in the mountains. Previous forecast below. Band of moderate snow crossing our area and lowering visibilities under 1 mile at times. Ceilings are also dropping below one thousand feet. Pretty quick burst of snow with conditions improving not too far behind this band. Still feel that 1-3" is a good forecast for snowfall totals. Have issued an SPS to try to highlight dangerous driving conditions this morning. Previous discussion follows. Low pressure system will track Northeastward through Saint Lawrence valley today. Warm front currently lifting across the area and light snow has begun in Saint Lawrence county, spreading Northeastward across the rest of the forecast area. Precipitation is still on track to reach the Champlain valley by about 6 or 7 am. There is potential for a messy Monday morning commute with onset of precipitation right at commute time. Aside from snow accumulating on the roads, visibility may also be reduced in areas of heavier snow. As early as 10 or 11 am snow will become more upslope influenced with the flow turning to Northwesterly. Snowfall amounts will generally be in the 1-3" range with some isolated higher amounts. Drivers should exercise caution this morning and allow extra time to reach their destinations. Skies will remain cloudy through the afternoon hours, with some lingering flurries or light snow showers expected, especially across the higher terrain. Stuck with blended guidance for high temps on Monday with highs in the lower to mid 30s in the valleys and upper 20`s in higher elevations. Winds look to remain light throughout the period...initially light SE, shifting W-SW during the afternoon hours once surface low and associated warm front move east of our longitude. Precipitation will hang on the longest across the higher elevations, but ending everywhere overnight. Still plenty of clouds in place though, so temperatures will not drop too drastically. With clouds in place temperatures will not drop very much, just about 5 degrees from daytime max temps. && .SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 430 AM EST Monday...A ridge of high pressure will be over the north country on Tuesday. However, this will be a "dirty high", as plenty of low level moisture will be over the region on Tuesday, with mostly cloudy skies expected. On Tuesday night, an upper shortwave will approach the region from the southwest. Models in good agreement showing that precipitation will not arrive into the region until after midnight Tuesday night. Expecting some light snow to develop, along with some pockets of light rain. Have gone with likely pops for late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. Precipitation will wind down late Wednesday morning, and have lowered pops for Wednesday afternoon to slight or low chance pops. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 430 AM EST Monday...Wednesday night expecting mostly cloudy skies across the region, with just some slight chance pops for snow showers over a portions of the Adirondacks. A cold front will move through the region late Wednesday night and early Thursday. The north country will be under cold advection from Thursday through Friday night. This will result in snow showers across the region from Thursday through Friday night. Have raised superblend pops to likely for Thursday and Friday over the Adirondacks and the western slopes of the Green Mountains, as gusty northwest winds will generate upslope snow showers over the Adirondacks and the western slopes of the Green Mountains. On Saturday, models show a ridge of high pressure will be over the region Saturday and Saturday night, with fair and dry weather expected. GFS and ECMWF models show a warm front approaching the region from the Great Lakes and Ohio valley on Sunday, so have gone a bit higher than superblend pops for snow showers on Sunday, with over running warm air advection aloft moving into the region. && .AVIATION /14Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Through 12Z Tuesday...Warm front approaching lifting across the North Country early this morning with developing light snowfall to all TAF locations. At BTV, light snow to continue through about 17Z with 1-3" of snow accumulation expected, with minor impact to airport ground operations. Anticipate IFR at all TAF locations generally 11-18Z Monday, along with higher terrain obscured. Light SE winds will shift light SW-W during the afternoon and evening hours on Monday as the warm front shifts to the north and east. Overall, surface winds AOB 10kts are expected at all TAF locations thru the period. May see lingering MVFR ceilings even as precipitation tapers to flurries/snow showers late this afternoon into tonight. 06Z Tuesday through 12Z Tuesday...BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR with scattered flurries. 12Z Tuesday through 06Z Wednesday...VFR/high pressure. 06Z Wednesday through 00Z Thursday...trending MVFR/IFR in rain/snow showers. 00Z Thursday onward...Mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR in periods of light rain/snow. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles/Taber SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...Neiles

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