Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 231814 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 114 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A wintry mix of precipitation will overspread the North Country after midnight tonight and become heavy at times during the Tuesday Morning commute. An extremely hazardous Tuesday Morning commute is anticipated with the icy roads and poor visibilities. A plowable snow and sleet accumulation is likely...along with some ice. Improving weather with above normal temperatures return by Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1214 PM EST Monday...Minor update to capture latest surface trends through the rest of today. This included bumping temps up several degrees cpv and down several ticks over the Northeast Kingdom. Rest of forecast remains unchanged with this update. A complete discussion with latest thinking regarding the messy winter storm will be issued with this afternoon`s package. Still an extremely complex and complicated forecast with regards to precip type and associated accumulations. NAM continues to support a warm layer around 5000 feet of 4 to 6c air...while cold layer around 2000 to 3000 feet is between -2c and -4c...supporting mostly sleet/freezing rain. Meanwhile...GFS cools the column associated with strong dynamics and supports mostly a snow event...with some light mix as steadier/heavier precip tapers off on Tuesday Afternoon. In our forecast we have taking the middle of the road approach using an ensemble model blend for thermal profiles and associated precip type. This supports a mixed bag of snow and sleet initially...with areas of freezing rain...especially toward Tuesday midday. Total snow/sleet accumulations of 2 to 6 inches is our current forecast with ice accumulation of one to two tenths possible...especially eastern/central vt...including the northeast Kingdom. Expecting the heaviest precip to occur right during the Tuesday morning commute...so an extremely hazardous morning commute is expected. Also...expect localized gusts between 30 and 40 mph along the southern Green Mountains from East Middlebury to Mt Holly late tonight into Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 303 AM EST Monday...Stacked closed low pressure system off the southern coast of Long Island will gradually move north and east as associated trough and vorticity continues to affect the North Country Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Colder air over Northern NY will result in mostly snow showers while eastern VT will continue to have warm layer aloft resulting in sleet or snow/sleet mix Tuesday night. Expect colder air to filter in on W to NW flow Wednesday morning as the surface low moves toward Gulf of Maine/Nova Scotia. Lingering upslope snow possible before ridging aloft provides a break in precip most of Wednesday. Snow/sleet accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches possible, with higher amounts in the mtns possible. Temperatures in the 20s Tuesday night will warm into the 30s on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 303 AM EST Monday...Late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, another area of surface low pressure will bring precipitation to the North Country. This low will be associated with 500mb shortwave with bulk of energy and moisture being to our south and east. Therefore, only expecting light rain and/or snow showers. Several more shortwaves move through the area as eastern North America remains under the influence of mid level trough. This will result in chance for snow showers throughout the remainder of the period. Temperatures will also trend cooler but remain above normal by about 5 degrees. && .AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/... Through 12z Tuesday...MVFR ceilings across the area should lift shortly and we see a break in cloud cover through the rest of the afternoon. Then conditions deteriorate rapidly to a mix of low MVFR/IFR as wintry precip moves in overnight. The forecast trend continues to show the precip moving in late overnight between 03-06z in southern Vermont and between 09-12z across central and northern Vermont and across Northern New York. Expect a variety of precip types with a mix of rain/snow/sleet and freezing rain possible. Additionally with the icing layers just off the surface conditions could be dicey with icing in the low levels of the atmosphere. An easterly low level jet is expected to create gusty winds at RUT and also cause issues with low level turbulence and wind shear due to the speed differences from the ground to 2500-3000 feet agl. Outlook 18z Tuesday through Saturday... 18z Tuesday - 12z Wednesday: MVFR/IFR trending towards VFR/MVFR as the wintry precip tapers off Tuesday evening. 12z Wednesday - 12z Thursday: VFR with skies becoming cloudy late. 12z Thursday onwards: Generally VFR with on and off chances of MVFR in periods of rain and snow showers. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Tuesday for VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ026>031-034-035-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Taber SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Deal

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