Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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003 FXUS61 KBTV 171452 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 952 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains in place today with quiet and seasonably cold weather. A warm front will bring light snow across the region as the pattern becomes more active through the week. Expect a brief warm up on Tuesday before more cold air returns by mid week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 948 AM EST Sunday...The 1030mb sfc anticyclone centered across the Ottawa Valley will bring mostly clear skies and light winds to the North Country thru the remainder of today. The sunshine will be relatively ineffective with arctic air mass in place. Looking for afternoon highs generally in the mid-upr teens, except lower 20s across the srn Champlain Valley/wrn Rutland County, and in the immediate CT River Valley. During the overnight hours anticipate a warm front lifting north and bringing increasing cloud cover. We should see decent isentropic lift which will lead to some scattered snow showers before daybreak and during the day on Monday. Total snow accumulations should be generally less than an inch in the valleys with 1-4 inches at elevations above 1500 feet. Lows overnight will again be in the low single digits however they will occur early in the evening as after midnight anticipate temps warming due to the advancing warm front. Cloudy skies and warm air advection will be the theme on Monday as the light snow falls and temps rise. Expect highs in the 20s to near 30 in the southern Valley locales.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 249 AM EST Sunday...A warm front will lift across the region Monday night, allowing light precipitation to redevelop after a very brief break. Lows will be early with temperatures holding steady or rising overnight. This warming will continue through Tuesday afternoon; temperatures will reach into the mid/upper 30s to around 40. Therefore, expect Monday night`s light snow will transition to at least a rain/snow mix, if not just plain rain, just about everywhere. Accumulating snowfall will be minimal since the increasing temperatures will lower snow ratios. The highest elevations may see up to 2 inches through Tuesday afternoon, but most locations should get less than an inch. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 249 AM EST Sunday....Showers will continue through Tuesday night as the upper shortwave and surface cold front sink southward across the region. Rain showers will transition to snow and become more focused in the favorable upslope areas as winds turn to the northwest behind the front. These snow showers will linger through much of Wednesday. Much colder air will follow the frontal passage; although Wednesday`s highs will be in the 20s most spots, temperatures will drop down into the single digits Wednesday night and again on Thursday night, while Thursday will only see highs in the teens to around 20. The focus then turns to a potential storm system for Friday and Saturday. Although the long range models still differ on the details, it is looking more likely that low pressure will slide along or even north of the Saint Lawrence River valley later Friday through Saturday. This would place us well into the warm sector, particularly if the 00z/17 ECMWF`s northern solution proves correct. Have noted that critical thickness progs on both the latest GFS and ECMWF indicate there could be some mixed precipitation in the snow to rain transition zone Friday afternoon. Given the very cold airmass that will exist ahead of this system, this is very much within the realm of possibility. Have stayed with rain/snow wording for now, but the potential for a period of a wintry mix will have to be monitored. Regardless, expect all areas will transition to plain rain by midnight Friday night and then remain so through much of Saturday. Then the rain will transition back over to snow as the cold front marches from west to east Saturday afternoon. Persons with travel plans at the end of the week should monitor forecasts closely as we are still several days away and changes are possible. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12Z Monday...Expect VFR conditions under mostly clear skies through the day. Some few-sct decks have moved in over MSS/BTV but I dont anticipate prolonged restrictions at either site. Today should be fairly quiet with light winds. In the evening hours high and mid clouds should build in as light snow begins to move in from the south. Anticipate the snow to impact SLK/RUT first and so I`ve opted to include VCSH generally after 06z Monday and prevailing SHSN by 10z. There will be some mountain cap clouds around but they should be of little consequence to aviation takeoff or landings. Light winds are expected through the period as well. Outlook... Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Deal

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