Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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865 FXUS61 KBTV 111515 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1015 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER FROM TODAY STRAIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES CONTINUE AND WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND WELL BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1004 AM EST THURSDAY...W TO NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH COLD ADVECTION OFFSETTING DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NRN NY (4F AT KMSS AT 15Z)...AND MAINLY IN THE MID TEENS ACROSS VT. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE QUASI-STEADY THROUGH 18Z OR SO...AND THEN GRADUALLY FALL. AFTN TEMPS GENERALLY 10-15DEG BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY GENERATE SOME SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIR TRRN. LACK OF FEATURES CONTRIBUTING TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE (OTHER THAN OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS) WILL KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLD TO SCT WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. CYCLONIC 500MB FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY QUIET (AND COLD) WX CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMING ALOFT AT THIS POINT...BRIEFLY...AND WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THE REGION WILL SEE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MVG EASTWARD AND CRESTING OVER NERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. WILL START TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 446 AM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO SETS UP FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO REACH ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS 925-850MB WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 20-30 KTS. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT. AS CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FRIDAY EVENING...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LAKE ENHANCED UNTIL WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT BAND. A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NY OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND...AND OVER THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. 2 INCHES OR LESS EXPECTED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WELL AS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM NEAR 10 BELOW IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT. THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -30C. EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SATURDAY...WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS IN VERMONT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD TO THE COLD...AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE WIND CHILL HEADLINES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 446 AM EST THURSDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR...RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE ZERO. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO READINGS...WE CAN EXPECT A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST...ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT REACHES EAST COAST TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW/RAIN...AS DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES AND MIX OF VFR/MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONTINUE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING TO PLACE PREVAILING IN THE TAF. WINDS LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS...THEN BACKING TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND TRENDING GUSTY INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AFTER 18Z. AFTER 00Z WILL SEE CEILINGS SCATTER OUT. OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY. 12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE. 12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ029-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...NEILES

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