Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBTV 260851
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
351 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017
Flooding concerns will continue across the North Country today
with several rivers currently above flood stage and a number of
rivers continuing to rise. Otherwise the only weather will be
some lingering snow showers...especially in the mountains. High
temperatures will generally be in the 30s to around 40. Warmer
weather is expected on Monday with highs generally in the 40s.
Even warmer conditions are expected for Tuesday and Wednesday
along with increasing chances for rain.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 351 AM EST Sunday...Flood Watch continues through 700 pm
tonight. Several rivers in flood right now and several rivers
continue to rise early this morning. Thus the potential for more
flooding will continue. The good news is weather should not be
a factor today to further increase the flood potential. Colder
air aloft will stop any snowmelt and only scattered snow showers
are expected today...so additional precipitation amounts will
be minimal. High temperatures today will generally be in the
30s. The snow showers will come to an end tonight but developing
southerly flow in the low levels will limit cooling overnight
and lows should generally be in the upper teens to upper 20s
with some lower 30s in the Champlain Valley.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 351 AM EST Sunday...Warming trend begins on Monday and
continues right into Tuesday. Highs will be in the 40s on Monday
and in the 40s to around 50 on Tuesday. Other than some light
showers in the mountains on Monday...not really expecting much
in the way of precipitation. Chances will increase beginning
Tuesday as flow aloft backs to the southwest ahead of an
approaching upper level trough of low pressure. Temperatures
will be warm enough on Tuesday for the precipitation to be in
the form of rain.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 351 AM EST Sunday...Extended forecast looks similar to
yesterday with continued southwest flow aloft Tuesday night into
Thursday morning. Moisture and dynamic support increases during
this time period in advance of the approaching trough.
Precipitation should become fairly widespread during this time
period and temperatures will remain warm enough for the
precipitation to be in the form of rain. At this time Wednesday
looks to be the day with the most rainfall...but heavy rain is
not expected at this time. Despite the clouds and precipitation
on Wednesday...highs will be in the 50s and a few spots could
hit 60. A transition will take place on Thursday as the upper
trough moves east of the area and more pronounced northwest flow
aloft develops on the backside of the upper trough. This will
allow for colder and drier weather to move back into the region
by the weekend and we may actually see below normal
.AVIATION /08Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 06Z Monday...Composite radar loop showing precipitation
over extreme northeast Vermont at this time will be east of the
region by 06Z Monday. Expecting mainly MVFR/VFR ceilings
overnight, with mainly VFR conditions expected after 14Z Sunday.
Expecting west-northwest surface winds to begin to gust at or
above 20 knots across the entire region by 14Z Sunday.
Outlook 06Z Monday through Thursday...
06Z Monday - 12Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR under high pressure.
12Z Tuesday - 00Z Thursday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR rain
00Z Thursday - 00Z Friday...areas of MVFR in rain showers ahead
of a cold front.
As of 351 AM EST Sunday...Several rivers in flood and several
are continuing to rise and/or are cresting. No more
contributions from snowmelt and rainfall are expected as colder
air is helping to end the snowmelt and only scattered snow
showers are expected today. Nevertheless...the threat for
flooding will continue and the flood watch remains in place. And
of course ice jams are possible anywhere there is a
constriction in the river such as a bend or bridge abutment to
stop ice movement and potentially create more flooding. River
crests on rivers that are in flood will likely be occurring
VT...Flood Watch through this evening for VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...Flood Watch through this evening for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.