Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 260550 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1250 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LOTS OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE AROUND EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WITH CLOUDS AND BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEYS AND DROP INTO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE MAINLY MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 1246 AM EST FRIDAY...STILL SEEING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVELS REMAIN WELL-MIXED...AND DECOUPLING HAS BEEN PRECLUDED BY MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT AND OVERCAST STRATUS LAYER 3-4KFT AGL. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...THOUGH GRADIENT DOES SLOWLY WEAKEN AND HAVE SHOWN THAT THE GUSTINESS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS WELL. A MILD NIGHT BY LATE DECEMBER STANDARDS; LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPR 30S...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND FREEZING IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 323 PM EST THURSDAY...VERY QUIET WX ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY LIGHT CHCS FOR MAINLY MTN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. LARGE SCALE SETUP CONTS TO SHOW A MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WL PRODUCE A FAST WESTERLY FLW ALOFT ACRS OUR CWA...WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE BLW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE MOISTURE...THINKING HIGHER MTN SUMMITS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 3000 FT. ALSO...THINKING A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CPV/LWR CT RIVER VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLW...AND LATEST 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE THINNING SIGNIFICANTLY TWD 18Z FRIDAY. THERMAL ADVECTION BEHIND INITIAL COLD FRNT IS MAINLY ALOFT WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROPPING BTWN -3C AND -5C...RESULTING IN SUMMITS COOLING...BUT VALLEYS HOLDING IN THE 40S. FOR FRIDAY...THINKING A SIMILAR TYPE SCENARIO WL PLAY OUT...WITH VALLEYS WARMING INTO THE U30S TO M40S...WHILE SUMMITS HOLD IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WINDS WL BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 T 15 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED VALLEYS AND MTN SUMMITS. FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW WEAK 5H VORT IN WESTERLY FLW ALOFT CROSSING NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ALONG WITH A WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH...WHICH WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY LLVL FLW WL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE MTNS. WL MENTION CHC POPS WITH QPF VALUES <0.10" AND SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 1000 FT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE ONCE AGAIN BTWN A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES...ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND ALONG THE SPINE OF JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD. VERY LIGHT AND LIMITED QPF ANTICIPATED IN THE VALLEYS WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM IN THE FAST FLW ALOFT IMPACTS THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF OR SNOWFALL. TEMPS THRU THIS PERIOD WL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S MTNS TO 30S VALLEY AND HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 233 PM EST THURSDAY...BIGGEST ISSUE IN EXTENDED PERIOD IS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND COLD FRONT LINGERING POPS ON SUNDAY WITH EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST AND COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME TO PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. UPPER FLOW IS WESTERLY IN BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM NEAR OR NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO MID WEEK ON AN EAST-WEST AXIS WITH CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PLUNGING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CONUS. 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 0C ON SUNDAY FALL TO NEGATIVE TEENS BY WEDNESDAY. FROM ABOUT TUESDAY ONWARD LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY WITH NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION AND NO ADDITIONAL COOLING OR WARMING FOR THAT MATTER. GRIDDED MAX/MIN TEMPS FOR TUES AND WEDS COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUN...AND WEREN`T SUPPORTED BY 925 MB TEMPS SO ADJUSTED THOSE UP A DEGREE OR TWO. FROM MID WEEK ON WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND COLD TEMPS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL GENERATE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW. MODELS DID NOT PICK UP ON LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO AND HAD TO DRAW IN POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR WEST ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR PREVAILS WITH GUSTY WINDS, EXCEPT FOR KSLK WHICH LOOKS TO REMAIN IN MVFR CIGS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5-15 KTS CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS STORM WITH GUSTS OF 15-25KTS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO SUBSIDE BEFORE DAWN, EXCEPT AT KMSS WHICH WILL SEE WINDS CHANNELED UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, KEEPING GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL BUT KSLK. KSLK EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS AND A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO THIS MORNING. IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT KSLK TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS FOR WIND, EXPECT SUNRISE TO BRING A TEMPORARY END TO GUSTS, WHICH LOOK TO REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 06Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...BRIEF RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. 18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY MSS/SLK/MPV. 00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. && .MARINE... A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WAVES FROM 1 TO 3 FEET WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...HANSON AVIATION...KGM MARINE...WFO BTV

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