Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 230745 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AND MORE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH NY/NEW ENGLAND. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DECENT COMBINATION OF PBL INSTABILITY AND 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY SO IDEA OF SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SVR STILL LOOKS GENERALLY ON TRACK. FLIES IN THE OINTMENT HOWEVER...SUCH AS LACK OF A DEFINITIVE SHORTWAVE AND RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO WIDESPREAD SVR NOT AS LIKELY. GIVEN TIMING OF FRONTAL ZONE FEEL BEST THREAT OF STRONGER CONVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM OUR EASTERN NEW YORK COUNTIES INTO VERMONT...ESP CENTRAL/ERN VT WHERE DECENT SFC HEATING THROUGH MIDDAY SHOULD PUSH CAPE VALUES INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW PRE-FRONTAL FLOW SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE MODE MORE LINEAR IN NATURE WITH A SHORT QLCS FEATURE POSSIBLY EVOLVING ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NERN VT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND TO BE THE PRMIARY CONCERN GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGER HAIL WITH MOST INTENSE CORES AS WELL...BUT WITH WBZ VALUES QUITE HIGH (ABV 11 KFT) WILL DOWNPLAY THIS FOR NOW. ALSO SOME DECENT DOWNPOURS AS PWATS SPIKE TO NEAR 2 INCHES IN A NARROW BAND ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT FLOODING THREAT APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING ALONG IN THE DEEP WSW FLOW. HIGHS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN VERMONT (80S) AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NRN NY (70S) WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND CLOUDS. BY THIS EVENING THE SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD...CLEARING OUR EASTERN VERMONT COUNTIES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS WINDS TREND NORTHWESTERLY IN ALL AREAS. THUS LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS EAST SHOULD EXIT BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT A TAD SOONER. HOWEVER...WILL OPT TO DELAY CLEARING TREND SOMEWHAT AS RECENT SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ACROSS SC CANADA SHOWING PLENTY OF POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS NOW OCCURRING. LOWS QUITE PLEASANT AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST SPOTS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY TRENDS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD AND IS BRIDGED ALOFT BY CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN MEAN ERN CONUS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH. WILL STILL ADVERTISE JUST AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SECONDARY SFC TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND WASHES OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH SUCH DRY LOWER AND MID LEVELS AND THE LARGER VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD RANGING THROUGH THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY SEASONABLY COOL FROM 45 TO 55 ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 329 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE`S A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY AMONG 00Z/23 GUIDANCE SUITE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WELL SPECIFIED MID- TROPOSPHERIC REGIME ADVERTISED IN SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES FEATURES PHASING OF A LARGE NORTHEASTERN NOAM UPPER LOW WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THAT RESULTS IN WESTWARD RETROGRESSION OF MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT AND MAINTAINS CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN A LIKELY SLOW-EVOLVING PATTERN THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST IN ITS DEPICTION OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE...PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TOWARD THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED. SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/PSBL STORMS - THOUGH NOTHING THAT SEEMS TO BE A WASHOUT ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY - AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS. I CARRIED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN TIER/MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TRENDING DRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SHOWN AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES WESTWARD...LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED INSTABILITY OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT FEEL CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD BE LOWER EACH DAY GOING FORWARD AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT GETS PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MIST AT SLK GIVEN CALM WINDS THERE NOW...BUT NOT LIKELY TO DEVELOP IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE (ALREADY 25 KTS AT 1 KFT SAMPLED BY KTYX RADAR). INCLUDED LLWS AT SLK GIVEN DECOUPLED/CALM WINDS. MORE ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN SPECIFIC TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT FOR NOW WILL SHOW TIMING WINDOW WITH VCSH: BETWEEN 13Z MSS- SLK...14-16Z PBG- BTV- RUT-MPV. THREAT OF THUNDER LOOKS TO END 20-21Z MSS- SLK...21-22Z PBG-BTV AND 00Z RUT-MPV. THOUGH LIKELY VFR MOST OF THE TIME...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LLVL TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED THREAT OF HAIL. PRE-FRONTAL SOUTH WINDS 10-12KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH WINDS LOOK TO DROP OFF SOME WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT POST- FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUGGEST LOWER CEILINGS WILL LINGER WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THU - 12Z THU...VFR/MVFR DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS. POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN MIST/FOG IF MORE CLEARING THAN ANTICIPATED. 12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. && .MARINE...
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AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MARINERS AND OTHERS WITH RECREATIONAL PLANS ON THE LAKE TODAY SHOULD TAKE NOTE THAT SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. PLEASE ENSURE THAT YOU KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTIONS SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN. THE STORMS SHOULD END BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...LOCONTO AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO MARINE...JMG

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