Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 251145 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 745 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 717 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO PARTS OF AREA AS FORECAST. STILL VIRGA IN VT. NO NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 302 AM...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SE INTO WESTERN NY WITH RADAR SHOWING DECENT SHOWER/OVERRUNNING RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THAT BOUNDARY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND VT TODAY WITH THE EASTERN EDGE...AWAY FROM BEST ISENTROPHIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITNESSING LESS RAINFALL AS IT MOVES INTO DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S. THERE IS A DESCREPANCY IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS TRYING TO DELIVER 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG CANADIAN BORDER AND NAM12 LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH BOTH AGREE VERY LITTLE IF ANY IN SOUTHERN VT AS ELUDED TO EARLIER. THE COMPROMISE OF 1/3-1/2 INCH ALONG NRN BDR WITH 0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES IN CENTRAL SECTIONS AND LESS THAN A TENTH IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS STILL HOLDS. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID- LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD SEE READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 302 AM EDT MONDAY...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS CONTINUES. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE CANDIAN BORDER VT AND EXITING SW TO NE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S. ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND UPPER SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30 KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW THUS NOT LOOKING AT MUCH BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAINLY WITH THESE HIGH PWATS...LOOKING AT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH IS NEEDED RIGHT NOW. MAX T FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE..TAD COOLER BUT MORE HUMID...L-M80S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 343 AM EDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRIDAY FORECAST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAING A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH THE SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...BUT MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE GFS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WHICH BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER SPEED OF THE ECMWF SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED THE SUPER- BLEND POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS NOW APPEAR TO BE TRENDING DRIER FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THIS WARM FRONT WILL BRING. GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD SHOWN BY 11Z MONDAY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...EXPECTING VISIBILITIES WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AND CEILINGS ALSO TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. 00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SLW NEAR TERM...SLW SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH/KGM

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