Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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999 FXUS61 KBTV 211753 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1253 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cloudy yet unseasonably mild weather will continue for the North Country this weekend. A weak disturbance will move northeastward into prevailing high pressure, and provide just a chance of patchy drizzle today into tonight. The start of the work week brings a more active period of weather. A moisture laden system moving slowly northeastward from the Gulf coast states will bring a wintry mix to the North Country, along with the potential for strong and gusty winds, especially along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. After this system shifts away through the Canadian Maritimes, temperatures will remain unseasonably mild. Additional rain or snow showers are possible through the latter half of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1227 PM EST Saturday...Forecast for the rest of the afternoon tracking along well with temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40 and cloudy skies continuing. Have seen a decrease in coverage of light fog and drizzle at mid day, with most visibilities unrestricted except light fog continuing in interior mountain section. High pressure at the surface and aloft through 500 mb will continue through the near term period, although the surface ridge shifts east to the Gulf of Main coast while upper ridge flattens in advance of approaching trough. Plenty of moisture locked near the surface below 850 mb, and while some webcams are showing breaks in the overcast expect skies to remain predominantly overcast through the near term period. Despite the cloud cover temperatures will remain mild and show little diurnal change. Overnight lows in the 30s limited by cloud cover and dewpoints in the low 30s, while max temps Sunday similar to today in the upper 30s to low 40s. Patchy light fog will redevelop tonight in moisture laden boundary layer.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 350 AM EST Saturday...A weak ridge of high pressure will be over the region Sunday night. However, model guidance continuing to show a low level temperature inversion over the region which will continue to trap in low clouds across the region, so have gone with cloudy skies for Sunday night. On Monday, ECMWF and GFS models both showing that moisture from a low pressure area at the surface and aloft over the mid Atlantic states will be slow to move north into the region during the day on Monday. Have held off on bringing precipitation into the region until mid to late Monday afternoon across most of the region. Models continue to show the region will received mixed precipitation, rain, snow or sleet. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 350 AM EST Saturday...Models continuing to show a prolonged period of unsettled weather through the period, with temperatures remaining warmer than normal through the period as well. The low pressure area over the mid Atlantic states will continue to mov slowly north through the period with models continuing to show a mix of rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain possible Monday night and Tuesday. Surface pressure gradient tightens Monday night and Tuesday, with increasing east and southeast winds across the region, with some areas of downslope likely.Precipitation winds down across the region late Tuesday night, as surface low pressure area moves north into the Canadian maritimes. Models continue to show another low pressure system to move in from the Great Lake late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing a chance of rain and snow showers to the region. The region will remain under cyclonic flow on Friday, with a chance of rain or snow showers. && .AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
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Through 18Z Sunday...Stratus deck trapped beneath inversion layer will maintain MVFR/IFR ceilings through the next 24hrs with HIR TRRN OBSCD. Improvements in ceilings in the valley TAF sites KMPV/KPBG/KMSS will lower again overnight, with similar trends in visbilities. Unrestricted vis at KMSS/KPBG/KBTV will deteriorate to mvfr visbility after 23z. Visibility to increase to MVFR/VFR after 16z Sunday. Outlook 18Z Sunday through Thursday... 18z Sunday - 18z Monday...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visbility Sunday night and Monday improve to VFR for a short time Monday. 18z Monday through Thursday...Conditions deteriorate to IFR with widespread wintry mix of precipitation moving in late Monday into Tuesday, then temperatures cooling to support snow through Thursday. Strong southeast downslope winds on Monday...especially at KRUT, with gusts in excess of 25kts possible. Brief period of improving conditions possible early Wednesday, before occasional SW renews. Thursday area coverage of showers becomes more patchy through Thursday.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Hanson SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...Hanson

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