Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KBTV 030745
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
245 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016
-- Changed Discussion --Cloudy skies with scattered rain and snow showers will persist
across northern areas today with partial sunshine possible in the
southern valleys by this afternoon. Fairly quiet and seasonable
weather returns by Sunday into early next week with just a low
chance of rain or snow showers on Monday. A more active pattern
develops by the middle and later part of next week as low pressure
and deeper moisture push into the region.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 245 AM EST Saturday...Mainly a persistence forecast will
be offered over the next 24 hours as moist northwesterly flow
lingers on the back side of large-scale cyclonic gyre exiting
into the maritime provinces of Canada. One final upper shortwave
embedded within this flow will swing through the area this
afternoon, so the idea of mainly cloudy skies with scattered to
numerous snow showers in elevated terrain across the north
continues to look reasonable. Here minor accumulations of a
dusting to 2 inches will be possible over 1000 feet today with
localized amounts into the 3-4 inch range possible at the higher
summits. Some partial sunshine will be possible on the New York
side of the Champlain Valley and in the upper Connecticut River
Valley of southern Vermont as boundary layer deepens slightly
and adiabatic descent fosters low level drying. Here the shower
coverage will be considerably less, perhaps just a passing light
sprinkle or flurry from time to time. High temperatures remain
seasonably cool ranging through the 30s.
By tonight variable clouds persist as northwesterly flow continues
across the region. The clouds will tend to erode across the lower
elevations through time, becoming increasingly confined to the
northern higher terrain and the Vermont side of the Champlain Valley
as boundary layer flow remains significantly blocked. Still looking
at continued scattered snow shower activity across the higher
terrain of the north where some minor additional accumulations of a
dusting to 2 inches will be possible, though this too will wane over
time as depth of moisture thins. Did lean on the milder side of
temperature guidance (blended bias-corrected data) given the
lingering clouds offering lows in the mid to upper 20s for most
spots and locally to near 30 in the Champlain Valley.
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.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 349 PM EST Friday...Northwest flow persists with cloudy
skies and snow showers, mainly across elevated terrain and
western slopes. Froude number forecasts increasingly blocked
flow throughout the night, but deeper moisture will be
decreasing throughout the night. Therefore, high chance POPs
focused around the terrain and immediate western slopes will
decrease throughout the night with windward valleys possibly
seeing a few snow showers. There is a chance for DZ/FZDZ as
indicated by NAM BUFKIT thermal profiles as moisture layer
shrink from above resulting in lack of ice nuclei. GFS BUFKIT
brings this drier air aloft into the area later with moisture
also eroding from the surface, more in line with stubborn low
clouds than precipitation. At this point in time, confidence not
high enough to include DZ/FZDZ in forecast. Min temperatures
will generally range from the upper teens to mid 20s.
Weakening northwest flow with drying trend will bring an end to
snow showers mid-late Sunday morning as high pressure builds in
from the Great Lakes region. Expect partial clearing of clouds
under the ridge, but lingering low level moisture trap under an
inversion may keep portions of the North Country in mostly
cloudy skies. Max temperatures will range from the upper 20s to
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 349 PM EST Friday...Models consistent with regard to dry
Sunday night and only low chances of light precipitation, mainly
across our western counties Monday as a dampening shortwave
trough moves across the region. Increasing clouds and scattered
light snow, with rain mixing in the valleys will be accompanied
by max temperatures in the 30s.
High pressure returns with dry weather, partial sunshine and
light winds Monday night through Tuesday. Temperatures will be
near normal to slightly below normal for early December.
A mid-week storm is poised to affect the North Country, however
models still differ on the evolution of southern stream 500mb
shortwave moving across the SE USA and reflected at the surface
as a coastal low by late Tuesday. Ridging over New England will
affect how far north the 500mb shortwave travels along with
progression of larger 500mb low over south central Canada.
Potential for mixed precip event as the surface high slides
north Tuesday night keeping NE cold air advection near the
surface while warming aloft occurs as precip moves in. Still
.AVIATION /08Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 06Z Sunday...An upper trough is moving through the
region. Scattered snow showers mainly in the higher elevations
are occurring with a chance of some activity at the stations in
the valleys as well. Expect VFR ceilings to trend down to MVFR
overnight, with some local pockets of IFR mainly at KSLK/KMPV.
Through the day Saturday, ceilings will linger at low VFR/MVFR
before gradual improvement back to VFR overall after 21Z.
Surface winds from the northwest overnight and into the daytime
hours at 10-15 knots with gusts up 20 knots expected.
Outlook 06Z Sunday through Wednesday...
06Z Sunday through 12Z Sunday...Mix of VFR/MVFR with local IFR
possible at KSLK in scattered rain/snow showers.
12Z Sunday through 06Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR with high
pressure building in. Periods of MVFR ceilings possible,
especially at KMPV/KSLK.
06Z Wednesday through 00Z Thursday...areas of MVFR/IFR in rain
and snow showers.