Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 041951 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 351 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS WITH SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HAVE CONFINED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT EARLY TONIGHT...AS LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING CONDITIONS HAVE DESTABILIZED IN THESE AREAS. EXPECTING AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL PROVIDE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW POPUP SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS OF KSLK/KPBG/KBTV BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO LIGHT OVERNIGHT, TURNING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR KPBG WHERE DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST DUE TO LAKE BREEZE OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON. 12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE. 00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK. && .EQUIPMENT... KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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