Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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496 FXUS61 KBTV 241726 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 126 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Above normal temperatures...as much as 20 degrees above normal...will be the rule across the North Country today through Monday. High pressure has become established over the area and thus full sunshine and no precipitation is expected as well. High pressure will begin to move east of the area Tuesday into Wednesday...but above normal temperatures will continue. There will also be a trend toward increased precipitation chances on Wednesday and especially on Thursday when an upper level trough of low pressure moves into the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 741 AM EDT Sunday...Overall forecast in good shape. Just some minor tweaks to remaining low clouds and fog...but that should go away by mid-morning. Otherwise...best way to describe the near term forecast period through Monday is record breaking. High temperatures today and Monday will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s which will establish new record highs both days...see Climate section below for specific numbers. Other than some early morning fog this morning and Monday morning expect full sunshine...higher dew points...no precipitation... and light winds as a large area of high pressure sits over the region. With the higher dew points comes higher humidities and combined with the above normal temperatures heat index values will reach the lower 90s...especially in the Champlain and Saint Lawrence Valleys. As a result will go ahead and issue a special weather statement related to potential impacts from heat index values this high. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM EDT Saturday...The upper level ridge will remain over the North Country through Tuesday and as such the warm airmass will remain in place through the middle of the week. 925mb temps and MOS guidance all suggest temps on Tuesday will warm into the low 90s so I`ve kept the idea of another day well above normal as the forecast. This also pushes heat indexes into the 90-94 degree range. While these temps are considered sub advisory(<95 F), they are not to be taken lightly especially given the time of year. Based on the forecast and current records, its expected that records will fall at all sites by 3-5 degrees. Prolonged exposure outside combined with strenuous activity can lead to heat related injuries. Please take caution, stay hydrated and take frequent breaks during any outdoor activities. This will be the third consecutive day with 90+ degree heat indexes during the afternoon. With upper 80`s to low 90`s temps, the overnight lows wont fall that much. Expect lows each night in the upper 50s to low 60s which is 15-20 degrees above normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 320 PM EDT Saturday...The upper level ridge begins to break down heading into Wednesday as a low pressure system begins to finally track towards the North Country from the Great Lakes. With the flow aloft not turning zonal until mid day Wednesday anticipate the frontal system moving through slower than depicted by either the GFS or ECMWF. I`ve slowly increased POP`s for Wednesday night with the expectation that the best chance of showers will be late Wednesday night just before sunrise on Thursday. PWAT`s aren`t particularly high with the system and so I anticipate generally some light showers across the North Country. There is a slight chance of some thunder however the threat will only be over the Saint Lawrence based on the idea that the front will be swinging through later and thus the diurnal heating will be on the way down. We finally get into some "normal air" Thursday into Friday behind the cold front. Temps behind the front on Thursday will still be in the upper 60s to around 70 however the cool air advection gets going Friday and heading into weekend as 60s for highs and 40s for lows can be expected by Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Through 18Z Monday...VFR/SKC through the period under light winds less than 10 kts. Only exception will be areas of late night/early morning IFR/LIFR FG at KMPV and KSLK terminals in the 06-13Z time frame. Some patchy/brief MVFR BR also possible at the KMSS terminal during this time frame, but confidence not as high given mixed mesoscale signals in the hi-resolution models. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. Patchy FG. Tuesday: VFR. Patchy FG. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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Record high temperatures and year recorded for the period Sunday Sep 24 to Wednesday Sep 27 Day Burlington Massena Montpelier 9/24 84 / 1961 87 / 2010 83 / 1961 9/25 85 / 1891 90 / 2007 85 / 2007 9/26 84 / 1934 82 / 1970 83 / 2007 9/27 83 / 1920 82 / 2003 80 / 2007 For Burlington, here are the latest in the year dates for reaching specific temperature thresholds 90F or higher: 9/16/1939 88F or higher: 9/22/1965 87F or higher: 9/23/1895 86F or higher: 9/23/1895 (was 87F that day) RECORDS: A record was set on 9/23 at MSS with a new record high temp of 86 degrees. That broke the old record of 84 degrees from 1964.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/JMG SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...JMG CLIMATE...BTV

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