Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 312044 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 344 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AND ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK. WE/VE SEEN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10F TO -20F THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)...BUT WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW NW WINDS TO QUICKLY ABATE NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 03-09Z. GIVEN DRY PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS -10F TO -15F)...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS/SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...CLOSER TO AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS WELL...SO UPPER SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS APPEARS LIMITED IN VERMONT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN VERMONT WITH LATER ARRIVAL/LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO +5F TO -5F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. IN AREAS SEEING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...SOME OF THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT WITH NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NRN NY AND VERMONT. LOOKING FOR LIGHT N-NW WINDS AND SOME RENEWED LOW-LEVEL CAA TO OFFSET NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY BUT CONTINUING BELOW AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY 1ST...WITH AFTN VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM +8 TO +15F.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS THRU MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE HOLDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO PROBLEM FOR ANY TRAVEL PLANS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG STRONG SFC-850MB QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIVE TILT...BUT SHOULD HELP FOCUS DOWNSTREAM AREA OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE HAS CONTINUED THE NWD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF VALUES...WITH THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IN OUR REGION (0.5-0.7" LIQUID EQUIV). STRONG 850-700MB WAA...A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...AND SATURATION IN A 7000FT DEEP DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER (PER BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS) SUGGESTS OPTIMIZED DYNAMICS AND SNOW MICROPHYSICS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MONDAY. GIVEN COLD COLUMN AND DENDRITE GROWTH...LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS POTENTIALLY 18:1 TO 20:1 THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT...SO GOOD "FLUFF FACTOR" TO PILE UP THE SNOW (THOUGH PERHAPS HAVING LESS OVERALL IMPACT THAN CORRESPONDING AMTS OF HEAVY/WET SNOW WOULD). COUNTERING THE SNOW WILL BE DRY PBL CONDITIONS...SO WE/LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION GRADIENT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. MAXIMIZED UVV OCCURS 15-20Z MONDAY TIME FRAME...AND COULD SEE 1+"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND S-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-10" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VERMONT 09Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND MESOSCALE DETAILS AND LOW TRACK BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. GIVEN PROJECTED LOW SNOW DENSITY, THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW. WORST OF THE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT. ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS (SERN VT)...AND FALLING GENERALLY BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME VFR BKN CEILINGS. CONDITIONS CLEAR UP AFTER 12Z. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SUNDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR. 09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR SNOWFALL AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST IMPACT LIKELY AT MPV/RUT WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. 00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR. 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA. 12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR VTZ008>012-018-019. NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NYZ034-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...NEILES

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