Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 011931 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 331 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VERMONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OCCURS BY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...COOLER MORE SEASONABLE EARLY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 145 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HAVE ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS UP AND DOWN FOR MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...BASED ON WHICH AREAS WERE GOING TO SEE SUNSHINE AND WHICH AREAS WERE GOING TO REMAIN IN CLOUD COVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 335 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS UPPER H5 LOW EXITS OFFSHORE TOWARD THE BENCHMARK. HOWEVER...WE`LL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER OUR GRUNGY/MOIST AIRMASS WITH VERY LIGHT BL FLOW AND NO REAL MECHANISM (WIND OR OTHERWISE) TO AID IN SCOURING VARIABLE/LOW CLOUD COVER OUT OF OUR REGION. THUS EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR NIGHT TO TONIGHT...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS WE LIKE TO SAY. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING IS MORE PRONOUNCED. THEREAFTER (THU/FRI)...HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS OVERALL CONTROL OF REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AS MID AND UPPER FLOW SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AND DEEP MERIDIONAL TROUGH EVOLVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. PBL DRYING PROCESSES FINALLY BEGIN TO KICK IN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS MID TO UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY IN MOST SPOTS. A QUICK LOOK AT MODEL-AVERAGED 18Z 925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SOME 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY FALL NORMALS...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 65 TO 75 RANGE ON BOTH DAYS AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO A GOOD BET IN FAVORED LOCALES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FINALLY A PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND TROF DEVELOPS. THIS WL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS...ALONG WITH CHCS FOR PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED WITH CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...ALONG WITH A SLOW TREND TWD COOLER TEMPS. LATEST 12Z GFS AND 00Z ENSEMBLE DATA IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIFTING ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...POTENT 5H VORT WL ROUND DEVELOPING TROF AXIS AND CREATE A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS OUR REGION...WHICH WL HELP ADVECT DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR FA. HAVE NOTED GFS ENSEMBLE PW VALUES BTWN 1.50 AND 1.75" ON SATURDAY AFTN...WHICH IS 1 TO 3 STD ABOVE NORMAL. THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE 5H PVA FROM VORT AND STRONG RIBBON OF UVV`S WL RESULT IN A 6 TO 10 HOUR WINDOW OF RAIN ACRS OUR CWA ON SATURDAY. THINKING ARRIVAL TIME WL BE AROUND 12Z SLV...AND 18Z DACKS/WESTERN CPV...AND INTO EASTERN VT BY 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE/DYNAMICS AND SLOW PROGRESSION OF SFC BOUNDARY...THINKING QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AND 0.75" WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR 1.0 LIKELY. NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL. ALSO...WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON SAT AFTN. LATEST 12Z GFS CONTS TO SHOW 925MB WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS...ALONG WITH 85H JET OF 60 TO 65 KNTS. HOWEVER...THESE STRONG WINDS ARE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS...WHICH MAY LIMIT MIXING TO THE SFC. THINKING GUSTS BTWN 35 AND 40 MPH WL BE POSSIBLE THE SLV/DACKS/WESTERN SLOPES...AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON SAT. THIS WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS EVENT BECOMES BETTER SAMPLED BY OUR LOCAL HI RESOLUTION MODELS. TEMPS WL BE TRICKY SAT WITH DEVELOPING SHARP WEST TO EAST THERMAL GRADIENT ACRS OUR FA...BUT THINKING NEAR 70F EAST TO U50S/LOWER 60S DACKS/SLV. SUNDAY-MONDAY...DEEP CLOSED 5H CIRCULATION CONTS NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH A PROGRESSIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT ACRS OUR CWA. THIS FLW ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND RIBBONS OF MID LVL MOISTURE...WL CREATE AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN. IN ADDITION...EXPECT ENHANCED LLVL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WL IMPACT THE DACKS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND OFF AND ON SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BTWN 2-4C BY SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S MTNS TO U50S/LOWER 60S WARMER VALLEYS. WL MENTION HIGHEST CHC POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. LOWS WITH THE CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRES GRADIENT WL RANGE FROM THE U30S MTNS TO UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. BETTER CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVE ON TUES ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SFC COLD FRNT AND POTENT 5H ENERGY...ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WL INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY FOR THIS SYSTEM. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON TIMING...ESPECIALLY WITH FAST FLW ALOFT. TEMPS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP WL RANGE FROM THE U40S MTNS TO U50S/LOWER 60S WARMER VALLEYS.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ANOTHER CHALLENGING AVIATION FCST WITH REGARDS TO LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG/BR THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...FOLLOWED BY PREVIOUS NIGHTS CONDITIONS FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. 1ST WL CONT IFR AT BTV THRU 20Z...ASSOCIATED WITH BLOCKED FLW AND NORTHWEST SFC WINDS...AIDING IN LLVL MOISTURE/CLOUDS ON THE EAST OF THE CPV. ELSEWHERE...MIXING HAS OCCURRED AND CIGS HAVE GONE TO MVFR AT PBG/MPV AND MSS WITH VFR AT RUT/SLK. THINKING VFR/MVFR WL PREVAIL THRU 00Z...THEN FOG/BR WL QUICKLY DEVELOP AT SLK AFT SUNSET WITH IFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...LLVL JET OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL THRU 04Z...THEN JET SLACKENS WITH IFR CIGS OR VIS LIKELY AT BTV/MSS/MPV AND PBG. THESE CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THRU 14Z THURSDAY...BEFORE A SLOW IMPROVING TREND. AT RUTLAND...SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLW OF 4 TO 8 KNOTS WL KEEP CIGS AT MVFR LEVELS WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TWD SUNRISE. GIVEN EXPECTED MOISTURE SOUNDINGS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE WL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN CPV...WHERE LLVL FLW ACRS LAKE CHAMPLAIN WL HELP ENHANCE MOISTURE FIELDS. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SUSTAIN WINDS BTWN 10-14 KNTS FROM THE NE AT MSS THIS AFTN...BEFORE DECREASE THIS EVENING TO 4 TO 8 KNOTS. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WL PREVAIL. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS ON THURS AFTN...WITH FOG/BR POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MPV. A STRONG COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH AREAS OF LLVL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LINGER AT SLK/MPV ON SUNDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

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