Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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288 FXUS61 KBTV 240547 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 147 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Increasing clouds and the threat of light snow will exist today as a warm front pushes into the area. Mixed precipitation or rain will be likely on and off into the coming weekend as this front waffles south and north across the region. Temperatures will moderate back toward more seasonal late March values through the period.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 146 AM EDT Friday...Based on satellite/radar trends still looking at increasing clouds through the early morning hours...but precipitation might get off to a slightly slower start across the area. Any precipitation is still well upstream and will have to overcome a dry air mass in place over the area. Have thus slowed the onset time down by a couple of hours...otherwise remainder of forecast in good shape. Previous Discussion: A messy day then on tap for Friday as the warm front marches into the region under strengthening southerly flow and widespread mixed precipitation. Some channeling effects likely in the Champlain Valley where gusts to near 30 mph look plausible at this point. Boundary layer to mid level thermal profiles will be critical in determining eventual p-type as widespread light snows slowly transition to a mix of snow/sleet and eventual rain from the Champlain Valley west. P-type should hold more in the form of snow and/or a mix of snow/sleet across much of east central and northeastern VT where mid level warming will be less and colder near surface layers will be harder to scour out. Mixed precipitation top down methodology using a variety of model output continues to support the idea of little in the way of freezing rain with this feature, which appears reasonable seeing the primary mid-level warm layer generally runs in the 0-3C range through 21Z. Experience would suggest however at least some patchy -fzra may occur here and there through the morning hours. Front end snow totals should generally run in the 0.5 to 2 inch range, with slightly higher totals from 1.5 to 4 inches likely across east central and northeastern VT. Given the front end light snows will inhibit any pavement icing and only low probabilities of a few hundredths of ice accumulation are suggested (if any) will hold off on issuing any advisories at this point. Late day high temperatures should range from the lower to mid 30s east and north, and the upper 30s to lower 40s elsewhere. By Friday night widespread light rains (or mixed precipitation north and east) will gradually wane over time as best warm thermal advection lessens. Later at night models continue to suggest building high pressure to our north will push the front back southward into the area with flow transitioning to a light northerly regime by daybreak Saturday. This will tend to shunt the precipitation shield southward as well as coverage/intensity lessens. Some lingering light rains/mixed precipitation/light snows will remain possible though settle generally into our southern counties by morning. Lows a bit tricky though with expected abundance of clouds upper 20s to lower 30s looks reasonable for most spots.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 338 PM EDT Thursday....For Saturday and Saturday night frontal boundary will remain draped across our forecast area. This means that threat for mixed precipitation will continue through the short term period. Large area of high pressure will push South out of Canada on Saturday and push frontal boundary south of our region. Precipitation will also push south of the area and we will be in the cold sector on the North side of the front. During the second half of Saturday night frontal boundary lifts back up over the area and will be situated across Northern New York and Vermont. Despite odd frontal boundary drifting South of the area then back across our area the temperatures Saturday and Saturday night will be very near to seasonal normals. We will have a little bit of rain across our Southern zones on Saturday, then some mixed precipitation as the boundary lifts back northward Saturday night with some snow, sleet, and freezing rain. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 346 PM EDT Thursday...Aforementioned frontal boundary remains over Northern New York from Sunday through Monday. More mixed precipitation is expected as thermal boundary is stacked up right over us. Upper level low pressure system and strong upper level shortwave cross the region later Sunday into Sunday night, and still pushing Eastward across our CWA on Monday. Precipitation will finally end Monday night. But, will only be a short break in the action with another low pressure system approaching for Tuesday into Wednesday. Unfortunately with freezing lines staying very close to our forecast area, we will mostly have rain with these systems but need to also continue to monitor potential for trouble with mixed precipitation as well, freezing rain and sleet. Tough to find a dry period over the next week with very active weather and borderline temperatures causing lots of forecasting challenges. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Through 06Z Saturday...Expect VFR conditions through about 14z before ceilings and visibilities lower through the remainder of the period. Looking at MVFR/IFR conditions developing over the entire area...especially after 18z and continuing through the remainder of the period. Precipitation will begin as snow and then transition over to rain between 21z and 00z. Light winds through 12z before increasing out of the south with gusts in the 15 to 20 knot range at most locations later this morning and afternoon. Outlook 06Z Saturday through Tuesday... 06Z Saturday through 18Z Saturday...MVFR/IFR conditions expected to improve as precipitation settles southward and lessening in coverage by Saturday afternoon affecting mainly southern terminals at that point. Highest threat of mix to occur at northern terminals. 18Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday...trending mainly VFR /precipitation-free as Canadian high pressure noses briefly southward into the area. 12Z Sunday through 12Z Tuesday...widespread mixed precipitation and/or rain return to the region. 12Z Tuesday onward...light and spotty mixed precipitation transitions toward a period of steadier rains by Wednesday.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...Evenson/JMG SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Evenson/KGM

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