Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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492 FXUS61 KBTV 161440 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 940 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet weather is expected today with high pressure over the region. A warming trend will also take place beginning today and continuing through midweek with above normal temperatures expected. However...attention will turn to the late Tuesday into early Wednesday time period when mixed precipitation makes its way up into the region. The precipitation will generally begin as snow before mixing with sleet and freezing rain in northern New York with colder air holding in longer over Vermont for a bit more snow and sleet before going to rain on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 940 AM EST Monday...Visible satellite loop showing mostly clear skies across the region at this time. A ridge of high pressure will crest over the region today, with sunny skies expected. Previous forecast has this well covered, so no changes have been made to the forecast. Previous discussion from 551 AM EST Monday...Going forecast in good shape. Only tweak was to temperatures and sky given the sharp difference across the area with clouds and warmer temperatures west and relatively clear skies with colder temperatures east. Otherwise...with high pressure over the area quiet weather is expected today and tonight. A warm trend will also take place with highs today in the upper 20s to mid 30s. And it will not be getting as cold tonight as the past few night with lows in the mid teens to lower 20s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 328 AM EST Monday...Active weather is expected during this period...especially late in the day Tuesday through the morning hours on Wednesday. It will be yet again another mixed precipitation event. Highs on Tuesday will actually get into the 30s to around 40 in advance of the precipitation. But with dry air in place wet bulbing will take place and the thermal profile will change significantly with low level cooling and warming aloft. At this time its looking like light snow at the onset and then as warmer air aloft moves into northern New York Tuesday night they will have the best chance of seeing sleet and some freezing rain that could result in some light ice accumulations. Secondary low wants to form along the coast Tuesday night and this will keep colder air in over the Champlain Valley and points east. Thus the thermal profile Tuesday night would support the idea of a bit more snow and sleet with some rain getting into the Champlain Valley. Freezing rain threat looks low in Vermont...but with more snow and sleet...better snow accumulations could result. From Tuesday night through Wednesday areas from the Green Mountains eastward could see snow and sleet amounts in the 2 to 5 inch range with around an inch in the Champlain Valley before changing to rain. Either way another messy situation is expected before temperatures warm enough for rain everywhere on Wednesday. Precipitation should also be exiting the region as temperatures warm well into the 30s Wednesday afternoon. Only other concern will be strong winds moving in late Tuesday...especially in the Champlain Valley that could cause some shadowing effects and limit precipitation. No headlines at this time...but situation for Tuesday night into Wednesday will be closely monitored given the mixed precipitation event. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 255 AM EST Monday...The middle to later portions of the week will generally feature high pressure with very mild temperatures, variable clouds and mainly dry weather. This idea is broadly supported by a variety of global ensemble guidance so forecast confidence remains above average. A weak upper trough passage Wednesday night/Thursday morning will bring the best shot at scattered snow/rain showers during the period, otherwise minimal pops will be offered through Sunday. Mean 925 mb temperatures generally average from -1 to -3C through Saturday, then climb slightly by Sunday. Adding a customary +7C to these values for January yields max temps from the mid 30s to lower 40s through the 4 day period with overnight lows in the 20s to around 30 in milder valley locales. Of course, any radiative effects that do develop during overnight periods of partial clearing could yield higher variability in the overnight lows than currently shown, but this is not an uncommon occurrence. Regardless, daily mean departures should average some +8 to +15 deg above normal for this time of year continuing the larger background trend throughout the winter so far. && .AVIATION /15Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Through 12Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR through the period with high pressure. Brief period of BKN/OVC MVFR cigs in the 018-028 AGL range expected at KSLK and in the 035-045 AGL range at KMSS through 15Z. Otherwise mainly SKC/SCT conds. expected. Winds trending south to southwesterly and occasionally gusty to 20 knots at KBTV/KPBG/KSLK/KMSS this afternoon. After 00Z winds abate to light with VFR continuing. 12Z Tuesday - 18Z Tuesday...VFR with surface high pressure 18Z Tuesday - 00Z Thursday...MVFR/IFR in periods of light snow, mixed pcpn and/or light rain depending on location. 00Z Thursday through 00Z Friday...VFR with brief MVFR/IFR rain/snow shower activity. 00Z Friday onward...VFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/WGH SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG

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