Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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336 FXUS61 KBTV 221454 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1054 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A low pressure over southern Quebec will continue to move east as an upper trough brings a slight chance of rain showers to the North Country today. A ridge of high pressure will build east from the Great Lakes on Sunday and will remain over the region through early Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
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As of 1044 AM EDT Saturday...Isolated to scattered showers remain over the North Country with persistent cloudy skies as mid-upper level trough pushes across the region today. A ridge of surface high pressure will build into our region overnight. Maximum temperatures today will be cool, upper 40s to lower 50s. Minimum temperatures overnight will be in the 30s across the area, pretty close to seasonal normals.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 426 AM EDT Saturday...Quiet weather during the short term period. East-west oriented surface ridge of high pressure for Sunday with zonal west to east flow at 500 mb and northern stream trough passing across northern Quebec. Plenty of sunshine Sunday with seasonable temperatures, highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s and lows in the 30s. Late Sunday into Monday a surface front sags south with wind shift out of the north. Cooler temperatures Monday mainly in the north, primarily due to cloud cover associated with the front rather than cold air advection. No precip forecast with it as moisture is limited to the lower levels and no synoptic forcing. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 426 AM EDT Saturday...Weather becomes more active from mid-week onward with periodic chances for showers. The northern stream low moves east into the Canadian maritimes through Tuesday to no effect on our forecast, and meanwhile a southern stream weather becomes more active from mid-week onward with periodic chances for showers. The northern stream low moves east into the Canadian maritimes through Tuesday to no effect on our forecast, and meanwhile a southern stream trough moving across the southern tier states makes a left turn at the coast Monday night and moves north. GFS and ECMWF in good enough agreement with surface low moving up the Atlantic coast and then northeast over the benchmark 40N/70W mid day Wednesday. As the low moves up the coast low level flow turns easterly off the Atlantic, with more moisture and cooler temperatures in Vermont, especially east and south, warming to the west into the St Lawrence Valley. Chances for showers Tuesday into Tuesday night as the low brushes the area, with better chances in southeast portion of the forecast area tapering off to northwest. Brief ridge of high pressure late Wednesday, then a cold front renews precip chances mainly Thursday. Warm southerly flow ahead of this front with forecast highs Thursday in the 60s to near 70 in the Champlain and Connecticut River valleys. Added slgt chance of thunder thinking better instability and shear with warm surface temperatures and approaching trough aloft. Friday ends up with west to northwest post frontal winds and temperatures back to near normal.rough moving across the southern tier states makes a left turn at the coast Monday night and moves north. GFS and ECMWF in good enough agreement with surface low moving up the Atlantic coast and then northeast over the benchmark 40N/70W mid day Wednesday. As the low moves up the coast low level flow turns easterly off the Atlantic, with more moisture and cooler temperatures in Vermont, especially east and south, warming to the west into the St Lawrence Valley. Chances for showers Tuesday into Tuesday night as the low brushes the area, with better chances in southeast portion of the forecast area tapering off to northwest. Brief ridge of high pressure late Wednesday, then a cold front renews precip chances mainly Thursday. Warm southerly flow ahead of this front with forecast highs Thursday in the 60s to near 70 in the Champlain and Connecticut River valleys. Added slgt chance of thunder thinking better instability and shear with warm surface temperatures and approaching trough aloft. Friday ends up with west to northwest post frontal winds and temperatures back to near normal.
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&& .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 12Z Sunday...Early this morning mpv is still IFR, mss rut and slk are mvfr, other sites are vfr. Expecting plenty of low clouds to linger across the region through 15Z Saturday, with CIGS rising slowly to mainly MVFR mtns and VFR valleys by 18z. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 426 AM EDT Friday...Lake Champlain has settled down with loss of strong winds, and gages around the lake showing around 99.7 feet, still just 3 tenths below flood stage. Dry weather through Monday and little wind to cause surge and wave action will allow the lake to remain quiet, with a very slow drop in lake level through the start of next week. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...KGM/Neiles SHORT TERM...Hanson LONG TERM...Hanson AVIATION...Neiles HYDROLOGY...Hanson

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