Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 221128 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 728 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY GIVING WAY TO THE 40S AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY COULD MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 726 AM EDT TUESDAY...WARM FRONTAL PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART...HOWEVER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. IF ANYTHING IS FALLING FROM THIS IT WOULD BE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO MATCH PRESENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AND BACK OFF ON TIMING OF RAIN ARRIVAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY MID MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SURFACE LOW TO TRACK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS COLD FRONT TRAILS TO SSW. FRONT WILL ENTER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER NOON...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CONVECTIVE INDICES INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. ADDED SLGT CHC OF THUNDER TO FORECAST FROM ABOUT 18Z-23Z. TEMPS...WARM TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. 52 DEG AT 4AM AT KBTV...SO MAXES DON`T HAVE TO RISE VERY FAR TO HIT THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY... COOLER AIR MOVES INTO REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DIPPING BELOW FREEZING. SHOWERS TO LINGER IN NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY FROM COLD POOL ALOFT UNTIL 500 MB TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY QUASH RAIN CHANCES. TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY 1000-500MB THICKNESS DROPS BELOW 540 DAM WITH A BRISK N TO NW WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM WEST WITH PLENTY OF SUN ON THURSDAY OFFSETTING COLD AIR ADVECTION. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 301 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN ON TAP FOR THE LONG TERM AS THURSDAY NIGHT SEES A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SHIFT EWD...MAKING WAY FOR A SFC LOW TO MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING FRIDAY TEMPS INTO THE 60S. MILD TEMPS CONTINUE FRIDAY NGT IN THE M30S-M40S AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO OUR N AND W. THREAT OF PRECIP CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NGT WITH W-NW FLOW BRINGING MIN TEMPS INTO THE U20S-U30S. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND NW FLOW CREATING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE HIGHER TRRN SATURDAY NGT INTO LATE SUNDAY. AT SAME TIME...RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE EDGING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO. DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS SWWD OF THE RIDGE...DRIER AIR MAY FILTER IN...ENDING THREAT OF UPSLOPE PRECIP SUNDAY NGT INTO MONDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER...IN THE L40S- M50S...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S-U30S. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HANSON NEAR TERM...HANSON SHORT TERM...HANSON LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM

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