Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 190840 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 440 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAINDER OF THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 440 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. EXPECTING PATCHY DENSE MORNING FOG ACROSS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 440 AM EDT TUESDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING SOME MORE PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM OVER EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AS WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATION FOG TO FORM LATE TONIGHT. HAVE NOT PUT IN ANY FOG ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME...AS BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE FORMATION OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK...WITH THE CANADIAN GLOBAL AND ECMWF MODELS HOLDING OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO NORTHERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTS TO BE VERY AMPLIFIED FOR MID AUGUST...WITH DEVELOPING CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS COMPLEX PATTERN WL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY HIGH AND LOW TEMPS FOR FRIDAY THRU MONDAY...WITH BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW WEAK 5H VORT AND SOME MID LVL MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR REGION ON THURS NIGHT. BEST CHC FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WL BE ACRS THE DACKS ON THUR NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN VT BY FRIDAY. INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL...SO WL JUST MENTION SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER ATTM. QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 0.25 THRU FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND GENERALLY RANGE BTWN 9-11C. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO NEAR 80 WARMER VALLEYS. GIVEN POSITION OF BUILDING HIGH PRES FROM EASTERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLW FOR SEVERAL DAYS...LLVL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT WL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY. IF SOME CLOUDS DEVELOP...TEMPS WITH EASTERLY FLW WL HOLD INTO THE 60S...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS WITH NEAR 80F POSSIBLE SLV. STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO POSITION OF SFC HIGH PRES AND AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE...SO WL KEEP SKIES PARTLY SUNNY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. FCST AREA WITH SFC AND BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FROM SATURDAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...A 1015 MB SFC RIDGE ACRS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WL CONT TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN NY THIS MORNING. THIS WL RESULT IN LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AND CLR SKIES. VIS/CIGS ALREADY AT IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/MSS/SLK AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH LIFR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK FROM 07Z TO 12Z. THINKING VIS/CIGS WL JUMP BTWN IFR/VFR AT MSS. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING WINOOSKI RIVER FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR BTV...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE BTWN 08Z-11Z. IFR CONDITIONS WL BECOME VFR BTWN 12-13Z THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES ANTICIPATED TODAY...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT THRU 06Z WEDS...WITH IFR DEVELOPING IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BTWN 06Z-12Z. A WARM BOUNDARY ALONG WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE WL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THURS...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. HOWEVER...GIVEN DRY LLVLS AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. SFC HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS ACRS OUR TAF SITES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLR SKIES...SOME PATCHY FOG WL BE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING AT SLK/MPV. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

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