Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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315 FXUS61 KBTV 221128 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 728 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Light rain showers and overcast skies will linger today, as a trough of low pressure exits the region. Cool temperatures today will moderate toward normal as a weak ridge of high pressure builds Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain will enter the forecast toward the end of the week with an area of low pressure moving through the northeast Thursday and Friday. resulting in relatively cool temperatures. Dry conditions return on Tuesday with a brief period of surface high pressure, before another low pressure system brings more rain for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 720 AM EDT Monday...No changes with this update. Rain has pretty much ended as of 7 am. A short wave trough will move out of the northern Great Lakes today, with a chance for one more round of showers late morning through afternoon in a band that will move west to east across the forecast area. With moist west to southwest flow at the low levels will see lingering rain chances over the higher terrain through the evening. Saturated layer in the low levels begins drying from the top down during the day however at inversion at about 5k feet today will trap moisture and keep us cloudy. Boundary layer winds of 20 to 30 knots at the inversion in the bufkit sounding, and KCXX vad winds have 40 knots at 2000 feet. This will be good for area wide winds 15 to 20 mph with surface gusts to 30 mph. Temps about 10 degrees below normal under the inversion, which will prevent warmer 850 mb temps from mixing down. Monday night through Tuesday a weak surface ridge builds into the region. Lowering inversion and light surface winds, along with moist ground from recent rain will promote fog formation in the usual areas. During this time flow aloft remains southwesterly, and low pressure over the Great Lakes will ride through the 500 mb ridge, suppressing the ridge & shifting it east. The low passes well enough north that the surface ridge will win out with no rain during this time, but will still be quite a few clouds around. Tuesday about 10 degree warmer than monday with highs in the 60s/near 70.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 349 AM EDT Monday...Weak ridge both aloft and at the surface build across our cwa on Weds...ahead of developing full latitude trof over the MS River Valley. This ridging should keep moisture and precip associated with weak low pres riding along the eastern seaboard to our east on Tuesday Night into Weds...with mainly a dry forecast anticipated. Progged 850mb temps between highs mainly in the mid/upper 60s mountains to mid 70s warmer valleys on Weds. Mid/upper level closed cyclonic circulation over the MS River Valley slowly moves eastward toward the OH Valley on Weds Night....with southerly winds and increasing clouds. Given the slow movement of the closed system from the flow aloft...will keep Weds Night dry with temps mainly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 349 AM EDT Monday...A period of unsettled weather likely Thursday into Friday...with occasional rain showers and breezy southerly winds. Closed mid/upper level circulation will slowly track toward the Mid Atlantic States as 998mb low pres is located near Binghamton, NY by 00z Friday. The combination of strong southerly flow between 850 and 500mb will help advect deeper layer moisture into our cwa...with PWS >1.0 developing. The initial warm air advection surge will produce a period of showers on Thursday with qpf values generally between 0.10 and 0.25. Some downslope shadowing/enhancement on southeast 925mb to 850mb of 30 to 40 knots is likely. Meanwhile...strong 5h energy rounds mid/upper level trof base on Thursday Night...with system becoming vertically stacked over southern New England by Friday. The combination of easterly 925mb to 700mb flow and favorable energy aloft will produce another round of light to moderate rainfall on THursday night into Friday. Depending upon exact track of low pres...will determine placement of heaviest qpf...but nose of 850mb jet would suggest central/eastern VT. Thinking additional qpf will range between 0.25 western areas to 0.75 central/eastern VT...with around 0.50 in the CPV. Will mention likely pops for this period. Friday night into Saturday...system will slowly lift northeast with mainly light terrain driven/upslope showers persisting into Saturday. Difficult to time individual pieces of s/w energy in the northwest flow aloft...but thinking lingering mid level moisture and favorable upslope flow...some rain shower activity is possible into Saturday. Sunday...Still some uncertainty on Sunday with timing of warm front feature and associated potential for showers. At this time...Sunday Morning looks dry...with a chance of showers increasing during the afternoon hours...along with increasing humidity levels. Any precip looks to be light and generally under 0.20". For temps...mainly the mid 60s to mid 70s For Thursday...but only mid/upper 50s to mid 60s with widespread clouds/rain showers for Friday with coolest values across the eastern mountains. Weekend temps mainly in the mid 60s to mid 70s for highs and lows mid 40s to mid 50s. No major heat anticipated with general mid/upper level trof across the NE Conus this upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Through 12Z Tuesday...Rain has ended and 12Z TAFs reflect no precip for first few hours, then a few hours of 4sm -shra or vcsh mid day in northern New York terminals, and early-mid afternoon in Vermont. MVFR cigs at KMSS/KSLK at 11z to spread east during the day. Cigs to lower through the day but remain MVFR, bottoming out at OVC015 00-06z. Some improvement to VFR cigs after 06z west to east. Exception is in areas of fog formation, primarily KSLK/KMPV after 06z where OVC008 forecast with 1SM BR. Any fog to dissipate shortly after 12z Tuesday. Strong south wind from the south around 12-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots this morning, tapering off after 21z. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. Patchy morning FG. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely RA. Friday: MVFR. Likely RA.
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&& .MARINE... As of 425 am EDT Monday...A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect today to early evening. Winds have come up sharply on the lake with 4 am EDT obs gusting to 31 knots. Air temperature has dropped to near water temperature and aided in mixing stronger winds down. Strongest wind, 20-30 knots, before noon but will remain above wind advisory threshold at 15-25 knots until this evening. Waves building to 2-4 feet, with highest waves are expected across the northern portion of the broad lake south of Grand Isle. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hanson NEAR TERM...Hanson SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Hanson MARINE...Team BTV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.