Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 211135 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 735 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure continues to dominate and will do so into the beginning of next week while Hurricane Jose remains southeast of New England. Quiet and dry conditions are expected through the weekend with fog in the early morning. Temperatures will continue to be well above seasonal average temperatures throughout the period with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, possibly approaching daily highs for some areas this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 350 AM EDT Thursday...High pressure is still entrenched over the North Country. This is keeping Hurricane Jose to the southeast of the CWA with mainly just some higher clouds over the area today, which should decrease in coverage as the day progresses. As we have seen the last few nights, areas of fog and low stratus persist even beyond the favored locations and will last until a couple hours after sunrise. 925mb temps are slightly cooler today than yesterday, around 17C, coupled another day of northerly winds should again keep temperatures today in the upper 70s to low 80s in a few valley locations. Again, still well above seasonable normals. Overnight tonight will see skies clear before another round of fog and low stratus sets up again much like the last few nights. While Friday is the first day of Fall, it will feel more like mid- summer with another warm, dry and mostly cloudless day as temps once again will reach the upper 70s and lows 80s in some valley. locations. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 350 AM EDT Thursday...What is left of Jose drifts even further southeast of the area as high pressure aloft builds into the Northeast. Dry weather will continue as a result with plenty of sunshine expected. Highs will be in the 80s across the entire area...well above normal for this time. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 350 AM EDT Thursday...Upper ridge becomes established over the area Sunday into Monday and the warmest 850 mb temperatures overspread the region as well. Highs both days will be well into the 80s and would not be surprised if someone hits 90. This will be up to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year. Still no precipitation and plenty of sunshine expected. With dew points in the 60s it will definitely feel more like summer. Ridge begins to weaken a bit Tuesday into Wednesday and eventually an upper trough begins to move toward the area on Wednesday. This may enhance the potential for some showers on Wednesday and the southwest flow aloft associated with the upper trough looks to be sufficient enough to ensure Hurricane Maria moving up the East Coast remains south and east of the area. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Through 12Z Friday...Fog/stratus remains over KBTV/KRUT/KSLK/ KMPV and all are IFR to VLIFR. High level cloud cover from Jose is breaking up now and will continue to do so throughout the morning. After 14Z all stations will again be VFR with light northerly winds at 05-10 knots for the remainder of the day. Overnight, expect another round of fog/stratus, similar to this morning. Outlook... Friday: VFR. Patchy FG. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures and year recorded for the period Sat Sep 23 to Mon Sep 25 Day Burlington Massena Montpelier 9/23 87 / 1895 84 / 1964 83 / 1965 9/24 84 / 1961 87 / 2010 83 / 1961 9/25 85 / 1891 90 / 2007 85 / 2007 For Burlington, here are the latest in the year dates for reaching specific temperature thresholds 90F or higher: 9/16/1939 88F or higher: 9/22/1965 87F or higher: 9/23/1895 86F or higher: 9/23/1895 (was 87F that day) && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Verasamy NEAR TERM...Verasamy SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Verasamy CLIMATE...BTV

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