Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271726 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1226 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, STARTING A COLDER TREND FOR THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1226 PM EST SATURDAY...UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS. NO DRASTIC CHANGES AS GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION TODAY, WITH INVERSION KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA IN THE FORM OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. ENJOY THE LAST FULL DAY OF MILD TEMPERATURES FOR AWHILE AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY, THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE INFLUENCED BY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CAUSING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO 1C TO 2C. WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM REACH FULL WARMING POTENTIAL, EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE M30S- M40S. RIDGING WILL ALSO PROVIDE MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT..ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40KTS AT 925MB. EXPECT SOME GUSTIER SURFACE WINDS ESP IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, OF 15-30KTS. THIS SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO CAUSE SHADOWING OF PRECIP FIELDS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SPREADS FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF COLD AIR AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...PRECIP WILL MOSTLY BE RAIN WITH SNOW POSSIBLE AT THE SUMMITS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. SO NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. NOTICEABLY COLDER ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL FOLLOW A NON- DIURNAL TREND, COOLING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT. SO EXPECTED SUNDAY TO START IN THE 30S TO L40S IN THE MORNING, BUT FALL TO THE L20S-M30S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER IN THE MTNS...AS LOW LEVEL CAA HELPS SQUEEZE OUT REMAINING MOISTURE IN WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO M/U 20S ON SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 316 AM EST SATURDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. COLDER AIR WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...THUS THE TREND WILL BE FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES TO BRING 2014 TO A CLOSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S DESPITE SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS TO START 2015...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND CLIPS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST THROUGH 00Z. EVENTUALLY ALL AREAS WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 00Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER 02Z AND ACROSS VERMONT AFTER 06Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH 00Z...THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 12Z SUNDAY-00Z MONDAY...SCATTERED MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS MIXING/CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LATE SUNDAY WHEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN. 00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MVFR CIGS IN NORTHERN NY WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS INTO THE ADIRONDACKS. VFR IN VERMONT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...KGM/NEILES SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW

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