Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBTV 301710
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
110 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016
Fair and dry weather continues as high pressure over Quebec
remains over the North Country. A closed upper low over the Ohio
valley will linger there through Saturday. This low will move
northward into the Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday.
Moisture from the closed upper low will bring increasing chances
for rain showers to the North Country tonight through Monday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 950 AM EDT Friday...Small adjustments to sky cover and
temperatures into the late morning and afternoon hours. Latest
analysis suggests somewhat thicker cloud cover should prevail
across most of the area today outside far northern/northeastern VT
which predicated a very slight downtick in temps by a degree or
two. This is in close agreement with latest LAMP output and multi-
model blended rh/cloud progs. Rest of forecast generally remains
on track with any threat of light showers/sprinkles remaining
south and west of our forecast area until this evening and
tonight. Have a great day.
Previous discussion from 415 AM EDT Friday...Satellite loop
showing plenty of mid and high clouds over the region at this
time. Bufkit forecast soundings also showing mainly mid and high
level cloud cover over the region today. These clouds are
associated with the closed upper low over the Ohio valley.
Composite radar loop showing initial band of moisture around
Albany, but this activity is aloft as ceiling at Albany around
15000 feet. Highs today will be mainly in the 60s.
Tonight, Bufkit forecast soundings showing ceilings lowering
across the region, so have gone with slight chance or low chance
pops mainly after midnight tonight for light rain showers. Lows
tonight will be mainly in the 40s, except around 50 in some valley
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 418 AM EDT Friday...The forecast challenge over the weekend
continues to be the battle between dry high pressure to our north
and closed 5h cyclonic circulation over the Ohio Valley advecting
moisture toward us. Little change has been observed in latest
guidance...with overall location and intensity of closed
system...along with timing of deepest moisture and associated
lift. On Saturday...first weak 5h vort slides from Eastern New
York into Southern VT...with 850 to 500mb moisture progs
increasing...especially southern sections. This moisture combined
with favorable upper level divergence pattern and low level
easterly upslope flow...will mention high chc pops with low likely
near VSF. Greatest potential for measurable precip will be across
our southern and eastern cwa...with qpf values generally less
0.25". Temps on saturday will be cool with expected cloud cover
and precip...with highs mainly mid 50s to mid 60s...maybe a few
readings near 70f across the Saint Lawrence Valley. A warm night
is expected on Saturday with lows mainly in the upper 40s to mid
50s. Have noted pockets of low level moisture...especially on NAM
soundings near VSF...so areas of low clouds and drizzle are
likely...in the mountain overnight.
On Sunday...additional lift and moisture associated with
approaching 5h low pres will impact our area...as center of
circulation is progged to be located over western ny. Better
chances of precip will occur from southwest to northeast across
our cwa...but still some uncertainty on areal coverage and
intensity of showers...so have kept pops in the chance range.
Highs will generally be in the 60s.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 418 AM EDT Friday...Closed 5h/7h circulation finally lifts
from western NY across central/southern New England on Monday into
Tuesday...with periods of mainly light rain showers. Have mention
chc pops during this time period with highest pops across the
mountains...along with the heaviest qpf values. Still mainly a
light precip event with qpf ranging from a tenth to half
inch...with best pw values staying to our south. Temps with cold
core moving directly overhead on Monday will be mainly in the 50s
mountains to 60s valleys.
For mid to late week a general drying trend is anticipated as
developing mid/upper level ridge builds directly overhead. Have
noted progged 850mb temps between 10 and 12c...with 925mb values
near 15c...which is 1 to 2 std above normal. Also...have noted gfs
2sm temps are 4 to 5 std above normal during this time period...so
have gone on the warmer side of guidance for daytime highs with
values mainly in the mid 60s to mid 70s depending upon
elevation...with cool overnight lows. Thinking with deep dry layer
in place...large swings in temps are anticipated with lows mainly
in the 30s to mid/upper 40s. A mainly dry forecast is anticipated
from Weds through Friday of next week.
.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Generally BKN/OVC mid to high level VFR
cigs over the next 24 hours as upper low pivots to our distant
southwest. Cigs mainly above 100 AGL until later tonight into
Saturday when some patchy bkn cigs in the 050-090 AGL range may
encroach into southern VT/KRUT terminal with a threat of light
showers/sprinkles. Remainder of forecast area should remain
largely dry/pcpn free through the forecast period. Winds generally
light east to southeasterly with occasional gusts to 20 kts
possible at KRUT through 00Z due to downsloping effects.
Outlook 18Z Saturday through Tuesday...
18z Sat - 12z Tue: Mainly VFR with brief bouts of MVFR/sct showers
as upper low drifts into the region while weakening over time.
Much of the period will remain dry.
12z Tue onward: Mainly VFR with building high pressure.