Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 301710 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 110 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Fair and dry weather continues as high pressure over Quebec remains over the North Country. A closed upper low over the Ohio valley will linger there through Saturday. This low will move northward into the Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday. Moisture from the closed upper low will bring increasing chances for rain showers to the North Country tonight through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 950 AM EDT Friday...Small adjustments to sky cover and temperatures into the late morning and afternoon hours. Latest analysis suggests somewhat thicker cloud cover should prevail across most of the area today outside far northern/northeastern VT which predicated a very slight downtick in temps by a degree or two. This is in close agreement with latest LAMP output and multi- model blended rh/cloud progs. Rest of forecast generally remains on track with any threat of light showers/sprinkles remaining south and west of our forecast area until this evening and tonight. Have a great day. Previous discussion from 415 AM EDT Friday...Satellite loop showing plenty of mid and high clouds over the region at this time. Bufkit forecast soundings also showing mainly mid and high level cloud cover over the region today. These clouds are associated with the closed upper low over the Ohio valley. Composite radar loop showing initial band of moisture around Albany, but this activity is aloft as ceiling at Albany around 15000 feet. Highs today will be mainly in the 60s. Tonight, Bufkit forecast soundings showing ceilings lowering across the region, so have gone with slight chance or low chance pops mainly after midnight tonight for light rain showers. Lows tonight will be mainly in the 40s, except around 50 in some valley locations. && .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 418 AM EDT Friday...The forecast challenge over the weekend continues to be the battle between dry high pressure to our north and closed 5h cyclonic circulation over the Ohio Valley advecting moisture toward us. Little change has been observed in latest guidance...with overall location and intensity of closed system...along with timing of deepest moisture and associated lift. On Saturday...first weak 5h vort slides from Eastern New York into Southern VT...with 850 to 500mb moisture progs increasing...especially southern sections. This moisture combined with favorable upper level divergence pattern and low level easterly upslope flow...will mention high chc pops with low likely near VSF. Greatest potential for measurable precip will be across our southern and eastern cwa...with qpf values generally less 0.25". Temps on saturday will be cool with expected cloud cover and precip...with highs mainly mid 50s to mid 60s...maybe a few readings near 70f across the Saint Lawrence Valley. A warm night is expected on Saturday with lows mainly in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Have noted pockets of low level moisture...especially on NAM soundings near VSF...so areas of low clouds and drizzle are likely...in the mountain overnight. On Sunday...additional lift and moisture associated with approaching 5h low pres will impact our area...as center of circulation is progged to be located over western ny. Better chances of precip will occur from southwest to northeast across our cwa...but still some uncertainty on areal coverage and intensity of showers...so have kept pops in the chance range. Highs will generally be in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 418 AM EDT Friday...Closed 5h/7h circulation finally lifts from western NY across central/southern New England on Monday into Tuesday...with periods of mainly light rain showers. Have mention chc pops during this time period with highest pops across the mountains...along with the heaviest qpf values. Still mainly a light precip event with qpf ranging from a tenth to half inch...with best pw values staying to our south. Temps with cold core moving directly overhead on Monday will be mainly in the 50s mountains to 60s valleys. For mid to late week a general drying trend is anticipated as developing mid/upper level ridge builds directly overhead. Have noted progged 850mb temps between 10 and 12c...with 925mb values near 15c...which is 1 to 2 std above normal. Also...have noted gfs 2sm temps are 4 to 5 std above normal during this time period...so have gone on the warmer side of guidance for daytime highs with values mainly in the mid 60s to mid 70s depending upon elevation...with cool overnight lows. Thinking with deep dry layer in place...large swings in temps are anticipated with lows mainly in the 30s to mid/upper 40s. A mainly dry forecast is anticipated from Weds through Friday of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/... Through 18Z Saturday...Generally BKN/OVC mid to high level VFR cigs over the next 24 hours as upper low pivots to our distant southwest. Cigs mainly above 100 AGL until later tonight into Saturday when some patchy bkn cigs in the 050-090 AGL range may encroach into southern VT/KRUT terminal with a threat of light showers/sprinkles. Remainder of forecast area should remain largely dry/pcpn free through the forecast period. Winds generally light east to southeasterly with occasional gusts to 20 kts possible at KRUT through 00Z due to downsloping effects. Outlook 18Z Saturday through Tuesday... 18z Sat - 12z Tue: Mainly VFR with brief bouts of MVFR/sct showers as upper low drifts into the region while weakening over time. Much of the period will remain dry. 12z Tue onward: Mainly VFR with building high pressure. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...JMG/WGH SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...JMG

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