Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 011045 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 645 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...LABOR DAY...BRINGING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 639 AM EDT MONDAY...COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NEAR SHERBROOKE QUEBEC AT 1040Z WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EWD ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED FORCING HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE AT THIS POINT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TODAY. SOME BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE OVERCAST...AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE LEADING TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. VERY HUMID AIR MASS DID LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND THAT FOG WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE BY 12-1230Z. THE UPPER LOW ISN/T ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE. THUS...THE RELATIVELY HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S AREAWIDE WILL REMAIN. 700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED AND EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +15C TO +16C...WILL FEEL LIKE MID-SUMMER CONDITIONS FOR THIS LABOR DAY. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER NAM-MOS GUIDANCE WITH ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S FOR MOST SECTIONS. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH WEAK P-GRADIENT IN PLACE...GENERALLY S-SW 5-8 MPH. FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING EASTWARD PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO SERN ONTARIO AFTER 06Z. SHOULD BE GENERALLY TRANQUIL FOR OUR AREA...ALBEIT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPING S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHELTERED SPOTS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CALM...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS EAST OF THE GREENS. INCREASING MID-UPR CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NRN NY INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BTV-4KM AND BTV-12KM WRF RUNS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK CHAMPLAIN VLY WWD...AND WILL INCLUDE 20-30 POPS TO COVER THIS PROSPECT FOR THE PRE-DAWN HRS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOW-MID 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS (UPR 60S DEWPOINTS). 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C BY 00Z GFS AND NAM...THOUGH MODELS NOW SHOW A BIT MORE MID- UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS MAY HOLD BACK INSTABILITY A BIT...THOUGH WE SHOULD STILL SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (WARMEST ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN AND CT RIVER VALLEYS). INSTABILITY IS A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY 500-1000 J/KG PER GFS/NAM BETWEEN 18-21Z TUESDAY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STILL LOOKS MODERATELY STRONG...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS EXPECTED. GIVEN STRONG FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG APPROACHING FRONT...ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ACTIVITY STARTING IN NRN NY BETWEEN 16-18Z BEFORE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS VT 18-00Z. NOT SURE ABOUT SEVERE THREAT GIVEN MARGINAL CAPE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY AROUND 6C/KM. THAT SAID...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PW VALUES 1.80 TO 2.00". COLD FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH VT 00-03Z WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY WIND SHIFT. WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS THRU MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN VT BEFORE ACTIVITY EXITS TO THE EAST. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THUNDER THREAT SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 00-01Z. GRADIENT WINDS AND MODEST CAA LIKELY LIMIT FOG FORMATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD SET UP A NICE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. VARIABLE MORNING CLOUDINESS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE 2-M DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AS WELL...GENERALLY MID-UPR 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA. SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF LIFR/VLIFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST OR DEVELOP AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 13Z WITH MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF LIFR AND VLIFR VISIBILITIES. AFTER 13Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW

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