-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 170457
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1257 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Pleasant spring weather is on tap for tomorrow with highs in the 50s
and 60s under mostly sunny skies. Some showers return on Thursday
and continue into the weekend though there will be some large breaks
in between. Dry weather will start next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1254 AM EDT Wednesday...Winds have remained elevated acrs
the SLV and parts of the CPV early this morning, resulting in
temps holding in the lower 40s. Have bumped winds and temps up
for several more hours, but feel eventually low levels should
decouple, allowing winds to become lighter and temps to drop
toward expected lows. Rest of fcst in good shape.

Previous Discussion...Dry weather should generally prevail for
the rest of the day though an isolated sprinkle cannot be ruled
out in the Northeast Kingdom. With a loss of diurnal heating
this evening, any sprinkle and the cloud cover will quickly fall
apart and clear skies will persist for the rest of the night.
Winds will go calm tonight an with clear skies and a dry
airmass, temperatures will drop quickly. Lows should generally
be between 25-35 degrees. With a drier airmass than the past few
night and winds staying up for the early part of the night, fog
is not expected to form. Temperatures will quickly rebound
tomorrow, with highs reaching the 50s and 60s. With efficient
mixing and a very dry airmass above the boundary layer,
continued to blend in some guidance to lower the dew points.
Minimum afternoon relatively humidities should be between 30 and
40 percent but the the mixing will likley cause the humidities
to fall into the 20s in the some of the drier valleys. Clouds
will begin to move in during the afternoon ahead of an occluded
front that will pass through overnight into Thursday. It will be
weakening as it enters the region so most of the precipitation
should fall over northern New York.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 331 PM EDT Tuesday...A decaying occluded frontal boundary will
move through the North Country Thursday bringing widespread, but
light, rainfall. Totals will be less than 0.25" in general with
highest amounts in the St Lawrence Valley tapering to sprinkles in
eastern Vermont. Breaks in cloud cover will help Vermont stay warmer
with highs in the mid/upper 50s while rain cooled air over northern
New York will favor highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Southerly flow and
post frontal cloud breaks may along the St Lawrence Valley to warm
into the upper 50s. Continued cloud cover will limit overnight
cooling with lows generally in the upper 30s to mid/upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 331 PM EDT Tuesday...Models favor a jet maximum to pick up a
stalling low circulation over central Canada, ejecting it eastward
causing the long wave pattern to become more progressive. This upper
level support would be favorable for cyclogenesis resulting in a
moderate strength frontal system to push eastward through the
Northeast late Friday and early Saturday. Preceding southerly flow
will help temperatures warm into the upper 50s to low 60s with gusts
likely up to 20 mph. While support is decently robust, zonal flow
across the central/southern states will largely cut off any chance
of a deep moisture tap; the continental nature of the low also
precludes deep moisture. So, while chances of rain are likely,
amounts are again expected to be minor. As such, main system impacts
will be for wind gusts 20-35 mph Saturday and cooling temperatures
Saturday and Saturday night.

High pressure is favored early next week with cooler air likely
locked in Canada again allowing for temperatures to warm back into
the upper 50s/60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Through 06Z Thursday...VFR conditions prevail at all sites for
the next 12 to 24 hours with just some high clouds between 15000
and 20000 feet at times. Winds remain from the north/northeast
today with localized gusts up to 20 knots possible at mss.
Winds become light and trrn driven toward sunset.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Scattered SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski/Taber
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Taber