Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KBTV 301439
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1039 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016
Fair and seasonable late summer weather is expected today as high
pressure drifts atop and east of the area. A surface trough will
approach the region later tonight and pass south on Wednesday with
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Behind this feature dry
and cooler weather return for Thursday onward into next weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 1039 AM EDT Tuesday...Surface observations and visible
satellite loop showing most of the fog in the sheltered valleys of
Vermont and northern New York has burned off at this time.
Satellite loop also showing some high thin cirrus clouds streaming
southeast from Canada into the region at this time. Forecast of
mainly sunny skies still looks good for today. Thus, no changes
have been made to the current forecast.
Previous discussion from 738 AM EDT Tuesday...Forecast remains on
track for today. Did tweak sky cover just a tad to bring in a bit
more mid- level clouds across the northern tier of counties this
afternoon per latest model rh progs and satellite trends.
Otherwise no other changes needed. Have a great day.
Prior discussion from 303 AM EDT Tuesday...
Another outstanding late summer day is expected across the region
as elongated surface high pressure bridges overhead and offshore
by this evening. Model blended 925 mb thermal progs are running
around 18C by this afternoon which support highs from 76 to 82
under light southerly breezes. Mid to upper level debris clouds
will be drifting atop the area over time but the general idea of
mostly to partly sunny appears reasonable at this point.
By tonight a well advertised surface trough will approach from the
north and west along with a broad increase in cloud cover as heights
gradually fall in advance of evolving upper trough and cold front
digging south across central Canada. Low level convergence along
this feature combined with steepening mid-level lapse rates and
climbing PWATS into the 1.0 to 1.5 inch range warrant continuation
of increased shower/isolated storm threat across the northern third
of the forecast area from late evening onward (25-35%). Further
south mainly dry weather will continue. Light southerly flow
continues, keeping temperatures milder than tonight - mid 50s to
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM EDT Tuesday...Strong Upper level low and trough will drop
down across region Thu but ahead of this main feature...falling
heights and surface cold front will bring about scattered showers
and thunderstorms wed-wed ngt. Models all indicate lots of clouds
and moisture around wed thus instability largely stays in-check but
some sunshine will allow for capes to approach 1000j/kg thus some
sct thunderstorms but wind field light.
The progress of the front is somewhat slow awaiting the upper level
low and shortwave thus shower threat will linger across vt...esp
eastern sections thru the overnight.
Thursday: Deep shortwave dropping across fa with crashing heights
and surface front still just along new england coast. Enough
instability and it will look and begin to feel like autumn on this
first day of September with mountain showers and daytime highs in
the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Thursday night: Trough continues to rotate across fa with cold air
advection thus likely still see some cloudiness but drier air
working in toward morning.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 305 AM EDT Tuesday...Deep trough begins to slide east of area
with surface high building across region Fri. 850mb temps of 6-8C
and 925 mb temps 12-14c suggest 60s to around 70 across the area
despite increasing sunshine. The cold pool is across the region
fri ngt with min T in the 40s across much of the fa and can`t rule
out some upper 30s for KSLK and NE VT. Don`t believe frost will be
in the picture.
Ridge at all levels dominates the region through the holiday
weekend. The coldest Sat morning but moderating with bright sunshine
and ridging at all levels gradually shifting east with
time...allowing daytime highs to rebound into L-M70s Sat,approaching
80F on Sunday and Lower 80s Monday.
.AVIATION /15Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Other than lingering LIFR br/fg at
KSLK/KMPV through 13Z, mainly VFR expected through the period
under light southerly flow. Approaching surface trough will bring
thickening mid-level cloud cover (080-150 AGL) to northern terminals
by late afternoon/early evening and later this evening at southern
terminals. There could be a few stray showers north after 06Z
with the approaching trough and have indicated VCSH at
appropriate terminals, though confidence is low.
Outlook 12Z Wednesday through 12Z Thursday...VFR/brief MVFR/IFR
in scattered showers/thunderstorms with cold frontal passage.
12Z Thursday onward...mainly VFR with building surface high
pressure. A few light showers/sprinkles possible at northern
terminals on Thursday. Patchy IFR/LIFR in br/fg possible at
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z Saturday.