Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 260811 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 411 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure will move east of the region today. A frontal system will move east from the Great Lakes today bringing increasing high clouds to the region today. This frontal system will move across the north country tonight, bringing rain showers to the region tonight and early Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 358 AM EDT Monday...Satellite loop showing high thin cirrus clouds moving southeast into the region from Canada at this time. Expecting increasing cloud cover across the north country today. Areas of frost and patchy dense fog will burn off by mid morning. Expecting mostly sunny skies today, with highs in the 60s. Will likely allow the frost advisories/freeze warning to expire at 8 AM EDT today. Tonight, Clouds will be on the increase across the region, which will result in much milder temperatures across the region tonight. Lows tonight will be mainly in the 40s and lower 50s. Expecting rain showers to develop across northern New York tonight. These showers will move into Vermont, mainly after midnight tonight. Models show a mid level dry slot will move into the region late tonight, so expecting most of the shower activity to end by daybreak on Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 406 AM EDT Monday...The current suite of medium range guidance leaves a bit to be desired for Tuesday based on timing. All models show a cold front with decent moisture passing through the region and a dry slot developing over the North Country however there is about 12 hours difference in the timing between the GFS and the NAM/GEM/EC with the GFS as the more progressive system. Given the GFS as a slight outlier I trended towards a blend of the NAM/EC with about 50% previous forecast. With moderate southwesterly winds expect the lee sides of the mountains to be shadowed especially in Champlain valley. Given the timing differences I offered chance to slight chance pops for Tuesday morning trending clear towards the afternoon with the lone exception of the Northeast Kingdom where showers may hold on into the evening hours. Then as the dry slot moves in over the North Country the parent upper level low gets sheared off and is broken up with the front sagging offshore into the Atlantic. The closed circulation of the upper level low then pivots down from central Ontario into the Ohio Valley region by mid week. With that low still off to the west and little moisture around expect the mid week from Tues night through Thursday morning to be relatively dry.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 406 AM EDT Monday...An upper level parent low over the Ohio Valley will track towards the North Country by the end of the week and bring surface frontal system with it. Based on current guidance there is quite a bit of spread in the location of that surface low however both the GFS and EC are trending towards a wetter forecast by Thursday afternoon/evening. At the moment it`s more of a wait and see pattern based on how the evolution of the upper level low over the Ohio Valley begins to interact with the surface low that ends up developing. Expect temps to moderate back towards slightly above normal through the week with upper 60s to low 70s during the daytime and lows overnight in the mid to upper 40s.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Through 06Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected, except for some areas of patchy dense valley fog in the sheltered valleys of eastern and northeast Vermont, as well as the sheltered valleys of the Adirondacks til 13Z Monday. Outlook 06z Tuesday through Friday... 06z Tue - 00z Wed: VFR trending to a mix of VFR/MVFR in scattered showers. 00z Wed - 00z Sat: Mainly VFR with isolated MVFR cigs. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ003-004-007- 008-010-017. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ002-005-006- 009-011-012-016-018-019. NY...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ026-027- 029>031-034. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ028-035-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...WGH/Lahiff

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