Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 230812 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 412 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Deepening low pressure along the Maine coast will track northward into southern Quebec by Sunday morning, before slowly shifting to the east. Wraparound precipitation will continue through tonight, with higher elevation rain changing to snow before tapering off to snow showers during Sunday morning. Several inches of snow accumulation are possible across the Adirondacks, and also in Vermont, generally above 1500 to 2000 feet, overnight tonight. Variably cloudy and seasonably cool conditions will prevail Monday through Wednesday. Another wave of low pressure approaching from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will bring the next chance for rain, generally later Thursday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 204 AM EDT Sunday...Light precipitation continues this morning before slowly tapering off from west to east in the afternoon hours. Thereafter, expect mainly terrain driven lingering showers. With cold air advection continuing, snow showers continue in the higher terrain generally above 1500ft. The Winter Weather Advisory continues in the Northern Adirondacks, and I`ve also gone ahead and refreshed some of the wording with this forecast update. Wet snow has started to accumulate now on pavement in these areas, with spotters indicating accumulations from 1-2" in locations such as Lake Placid. Still think an additional 2-4" of snow is in order for these areas until it tapers to snow showers into the mid-morning hrs Sunday. As is the case for Vermont, snowfall accumulations will exhibit a strong elevation dependency. As pressure gradient continues to increase, west winds will stand to increase and become gusty as well across the entire forecast area. In the higher elevations, gusts up to 40 mph in conjunction with accumulations of dense snow overnight may pose a risk for scattered power outages. WNW to NW low-level flow will increase, producing more of an orographic character to the snowfall. Have continued winter weather advisory for nrn Adirondacks, for 3-5" of snowfall, highest at elevations near 2000` and higher. Northeast Kingdom and elevations above 1500ft could expect lighter accumulation. Main impact will be some slippery wintry travel due to wet/slushy accumulation on roadways after sunset, especially across the higher passes of NY/VT. With strong elevational dependence to the snowfall, travelers may also see large variations in road conditions over short distances, so that will be something to watch for. Strong gradient flow on backside of departing low pressure will yield increasingly windy conditions late tonight and through the daylight hrs Sunday. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph, with gusts locally to 35-40mph are expected. Higher elevation areas with wet snow accumulation may see some isold power outages owing to snowfall and developing moderately strong winds. May see some partial clearing very late Sunday, but overall windy and raw conditions with lower elevation high temps generally in the 40s (near 50F at BTV). Gradient flow diminishings Sunday evening, with quieter weather conditions for Sunday night. Lows Sunday night generally 35-40F, but locally near freezing in the nrn Adirondacks. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 411 AM EDT Sunday...The north country will remain under cyclonic flow from the departing surface low pressure area over eastern Canada through the period. Expecting mainly upslope rain and snow showers over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains through the period. Have gone with slight chance pops through the period to account for this. Have kept the Champlain and Saint Lawrence valleys dry through the period.
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As of 411 AM EDT Sunday...On Wednesday, one more day of upslope rain and snow showers across the Adirondacks and Green Mountains, as the region remains under cyclonic flow. High pressure area to build east from the Great Lakes Wednesday night, so expecting fair and dry weather Wednesday night into Thursday morning. ECMWF and GFS models in good agreement in showing rain showers moving into the region late Thursday afternoon ahead of a warm front. Rain and snow showers will continue across the region Thursday night and Friday. An upper trough will move through the region on Saturday, so will continue with chance pops for rain and snow showers.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... Through 06z Monday...Widespread MVFR ceilings...with periods of IFR possible through about 15z before improving to VFR for the remainder of the period. The majority of any snow will be confined to elevations above 1000 feet. Gusty west to northwest winds will prevail through much of the period...however after 15z the winds will be strongest with gusts in the 20 to 30 knot range, before tapering off Sunday evening into Sunday night. Outlook 06z Monday through Thursday... 06z Monday through 00z Wednesday: A mix of VFR/MVFR with upslope showers in NW flow. 00Z Wednesday through 00Z Friday: IFR/MVFR fog development possible during the early morning hours. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 320 PM EDT Saturday...Additional rainfall up to an inch or so is expected. Dry antecedent conditions and absence of extreme rainfall rates should continue to preclude any river/stream flooding. Only some minor urban and street flooding is possible associated with falling leaves clogging storm drains, etc. widespread flooding is anticipated. && .MARINE... AS OF 706 PM EDT Saturday...West to northwest winds have increased to 15 to 25 knots on Lake Champlain early this evening. These winds will continue to stay at least in this range owing to sharp west to northwest pressure gradient associated with deepening low located over central Maine. Based on current indications from the 18z BTV-4km WRF, it is likely that lake winds will stay above Lake Wind Advisory criteria into a good part of Sunday as well. Waves will build into the 2 to 3 foot range. These tend the highest on east-facing shores exposed to a greater fetch on west winds; specifically those locations adjacent to the open waters north of the Charlotte Ferry and south of Valcour Island. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NYZ029>031-034. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos/KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...KGM HYDROLOGY...KGM MARINE...Loconto is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.