Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281807 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 207 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... The Memorial Day weekend will continue to see warm temperatures with highs on the order of 10 to 20 degrees above normal. In addition...higher dew points will lead to more humid conditions and the threat for showers and thunderstorms will exist...especially on Sunday and Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... As of 150 PM EDT Saturday... Temperatures continue to warm for most of the forecast area however the land/water temperature difference has created a weak lake breeze blowing towards land on both the east and west sides of the lake. This is acting to cool off the very near shore waters by 5-10 degrees depending on the distance from the lake. I blended some of the latest HIRESnmm and HRRR to the very near shore land areas to capture this in the near term forecast. Latest visible satellite images show spotty cumulus has started to develop over the adirondacks and depending on how far the lake breeze moves inland there may be a few spotty showers that develop. With the low levels quite unstable and increasing moisture its a good bet that the shower could produce a few isolated lightning strikes. The rest of the forecast is in good shape with no changes needed. Previous discussion...North country remains under upper level ridge today and tonight. Another very warm day is on tap as 925 temps reach to near 20c. Feel that we`ll once again reach 90 here in the Champlain Valley. Believe we will have some very isolated convection this afternoon with a focus near a lake breeze off Lake Champlain...and also in the higher terrain. PWATS will be increasing over the next couple periods. lows tonight will be will generally be in the lower 60s across the area. && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 333 AM EDT Saturday...Most active period then takes shape by later Sunday into Sunday night with the approach of a longwave trough and its interaction with deep tropospheric moisture. The first half of the day should be more of the same with partly sunny, warm and modestly humid conditions with widely scattered terrain-driven showers/isolated storms. A few record high temperatures may again be threatened (see climate section at bottom). As mid level heights begin to fall by later in the day and toward evening expect a broader coverage of showers/storms to develop and continue into Sunday night as upper trough approaches. Anomalously high pwats in excess of 1.5 to 2.0 inches combined with a deep moist-neutral airmass to near 30 kft all spell at least the potential of locally heavy rainfall across the area, especially from the Adirondacks eastward where some interaction with the moisture plume from TD #2 may occur Sunday night. Will thus introduce this idea along with other surrounding NWS offices per intra-site coordination this morning. While antecedent dry conditions should preclude a widespread flood threat, localized hydrological concerns will be a possibility during this period. As we progress into Monday the upper trough pulls east with a drier, more stable airmass filtering into the region over time and precipitation chances lowering accordingly. In regard to temperatures I leaned close to blended MOS-based and bias- corrected data offering highs on Sunday in the 80s to locally near 90F in the Champlain/St Lawrence Valleys, then somewhat cooler from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday with more tolerable humidity levels. Overnight lows Sunday night mainly in the 58 to 66 range. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 333 AM EDT Saturday...The period from Monday night onward through Thursday of next week will be dominated by surface high pressure with generally fair weather, light winds and tolerable humidity levels. Temperatures will remain several degrees above normal, continuing the present trend that`s been established over the past week or so. Highs should mainly range from the mid 70s to lower 80s each afternoon with overnight lows generally in the 50s to around 60. By late week, a slightly more vigorous northern stream trough and attendant surface front will make a run into the northeastern third of the nation. As this feature approaches expect a renewed threat of showers from Friday into next Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/... Through 12z Sunday...Generally VFR conditions through the TAF period...with SCT mid-upper level clouds. Light fair weather cumulus has begun to pop up over the adirondacks with an isolated showers or thunderstorm possible. Areal coverage is minimal so I`ve only included vcsh for PBG which has the best chance to see a shower in the vicinity this afternoon. Generally calm to light and variable winds will continue this afternoon before going calm overnight and then southerly tomorrow morning. Outlook 12z Sunday through Wednesday... Mainly VFR with a daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Sunday and Monday time frame. Best chance for a dry day will be Wednesday. && .CLIMATE... Record maximum temperatures for Saturday 5/28 and Sunday 5/29 are as follows: 5/28 5/29 BTV - Burlington 92 in 1978 89 in 1978 MPV - Montpelier 88 in 1978 87 in 1978 MSS - Massena 89 in 1978 90 in 1978 St Johnsbury 93 in 1978 92 in 1978 Mt Mansfield 77 in 1978 77 in 1978 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Deal/Neiles SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Deal CLIMATE...BTV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.