Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 231141 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 741 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 635 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT LLVL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT MORNING TEMPS MILD...GENERALLY IN THE U30S-M40S. ISOLATED TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO ERN NY/NERN NJ. WITH WIND FLOW PICKING UP OUT OF THE NW...EXPECT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SOME SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TRRN TODAY AS SATELLITE IMGY SHOWS MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL UPSTREAM. FINAL PUSH FROM ANOTHER UPPER LVL VORT WONT REACH THE REGION TIL THIS EVENING...KEEPING THREAT OF PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE NE...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR N/NW FLOW TODAY. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIGHER TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE VALLEY WARM ENOUGH FOR -SHRA. BUT HIGHER TRRN WILL SEE SOME RASN MIX. WINDS MAY ALSO BECM GUSTY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS 40-50KT JET AT 850MB EXTENDS INTO THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FA. EXPECT QPF AMTS AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOWFALL PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNGT ACROSS THE NEK. CLOUDY SKIES FROM LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S-L50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S AT THE SUMMITS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...LINGERING MOSTLY IN THE NEK IN THE FORM OF RASN MIX AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE L-M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER TRRN. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING COINCIDING WILL LEAD TO 925MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 2C-3C THURSDAY. GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BUT CONTINUED N/NW FLOW WILL SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE U40S-M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S-L40S IN THE HIGHER TRRN. RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH WEDNESDAYS 850MB JET EWD...AT 30-45KTS OVER SRN AND ERN VT. CLOSER TO THE SFC...925MB WINDS FOR THIS AREA AROUND 28-35KTS. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND GUSTY WINDS PSBL...FINER FUELS WILL DRY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF FA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH QPF RESULTS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THURSDAY NGT...WINDS SUBSIDE WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...20S-L30S. WARMTH REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING 7C-9C IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF FRIDAY/FRIDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS WILL SEE U50S-L60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 455 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE FROM A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT... SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS UP TO LIKELY. ON SATURDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SHARPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF MODEL AND ALSO HAS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. AREA TO REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SUGGESTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS...LEADING TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY. GFS MODEL HAS THE REGION IN AN OMEGA BLOCK ON TUESDAY WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF MODEL HAS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WELL SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WITH AN OPEN TROUGH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SO EXPECTING NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS. SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM/JN NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH/TABER

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