Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KBTV 230812
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
412 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016
Deepening low pressure along the Maine coast will track northward
into southern Quebec by Sunday morning, before slowly shifting to
the east. Wraparound precipitation will continue through tonight,
with higher elevation rain changing to snow before tapering off to
snow showers during Sunday morning. Several inches of snow
accumulation are possible across the Adirondacks, and also in
Vermont, generally above 1500 to 2000 feet, overnight tonight.
Variably cloudy and seasonably cool conditions will prevail
Monday through Wednesday. Another wave of low pressure approaching
from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will bring the next chance
for rain, generally later Thursday into Friday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 204 AM EDT Sunday...Light precipitation continues this
morning before slowly tapering off from west to east in the
afternoon hours. Thereafter, expect mainly terrain driven
lingering showers. With cold air advection continuing, snow
showers continue in the higher terrain generally above 1500ft.
The Winter Weather Advisory continues in the Northern Adirondacks,
and I`ve also gone ahead and refreshed some of the wording with
this forecast update. Wet snow has started to accumulate now on
pavement in these areas, with spotters indicating accumulations
from 1-2" in locations such as Lake Placid. Still think an
additional 2-4" of snow is in order for these areas until it
tapers to snow showers into the mid-morning hrs Sunday. As is the
case for Vermont, snowfall accumulations will exhibit a strong
As pressure gradient continues to increase, west winds will
stand to increase and become gusty as well across the entire
forecast area. In the higher elevations, gusts up to 40 mph in
conjunction with accumulations of dense snow overnight may pose a
risk for scattered power outages.
WNW to NW low-level flow will increase, producing more of an
orographic character to the snowfall. Have continued winter
weather advisory for nrn Adirondacks, for 3-5" of snowfall,
highest at elevations near 2000` and higher. Northeast Kingdom and
elevations above 1500ft could expect lighter accumulation. Main
impact will be some slippery wintry travel due to wet/slushy
accumulation on roadways after sunset, especially across the
higher passes of NY/VT. With strong elevational dependence to the
snowfall, travelers may also see large variations in road
conditions over short distances, so that will be something to
Strong gradient flow on backside of departing low pressure will
yield increasingly windy conditions late tonight and through the
daylight hrs Sunday. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph, with gusts
locally to 35-40mph are expected. Higher elevation areas with wet
snow accumulation may see some isold power outages owing to
snowfall and developing moderately strong winds.
May see some partial clearing very late Sunday, but overall windy
and raw conditions with lower elevation high temps generally in
the 40s (near 50F at BTV). Gradient flow diminishings Sunday
evening, with quieter weather conditions for Sunday night. Lows
Sunday night generally 35-40F, but locally near freezing in the
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 411 AM EDT Sunday...The north country will remain under
cyclonic flow from the departing surface low pressure area over
eastern Canada through the period. Expecting mainly upslope rain
and snow showers over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains through
the period. Have gone with slight chance pops through the period
to account for this. Have kept the Champlain and Saint Lawrence
valleys dry through the period.
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.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 411 AM EDT Sunday...On Wednesday, one more day of upslope
rain and snow showers across the Adirondacks and Green Mountains,
as the region remains under cyclonic flow. High pressure area to
build east from the Great Lakes Wednesday night, so expecting fair
and dry weather Wednesday night into Thursday morning. ECMWF and
GFS models in good agreement in showing rain showers moving into
the region late Thursday afternoon ahead of a warm front. Rain and
snow showers will continue across the region Thursday night and
Friday. An upper trough will move through the region on Saturday,
so will continue with chance pops for rain and snow showers.
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.AVIATION /08Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 06z Monday...Widespread MVFR ceilings...with periods of
IFR possible through about 15z before improving to VFR for the
remainder of the period. The majority of any snow will be confined
to elevations above 1000 feet. Gusty west to northwest winds will
prevail through much of the period...however after 15z the winds
will be strongest with gusts in the 20 to 30 knot range, before
tapering off Sunday evening into Sunday night.
Outlook 06z Monday through Thursday...
06z Monday through 00z Wednesday: A mix of VFR/MVFR with upslope
showers in NW flow.
00Z Wednesday through 00Z Friday: IFR/MVFR fog development
possible during the early morning hours.
As of 320 PM EDT Saturday...Additional rainfall up to an inch or
so is expected. Dry antecedent conditions and absence of extreme
rainfall rates should continue to preclude any river/stream
flooding. Only some minor urban and street flooding is possible
associated with falling leaves clogging storm drains, etc.
Otherwise...no widespread flooding is anticipated.
AS OF 706 PM EDT Saturday...West to northwest winds have
increased to 15 to 25 knots on Lake Champlain early this evening.
These winds will continue to stay at least in this range owing to
sharp west to northwest pressure gradient associated with
deepening low located over central Maine. Based on current
indications from the 18z BTV-4km WRF, it is likely that lake winds
will stay above Lake Wind Advisory criteria into a good part of
Sunday as well. Waves will build into the 2 to 3 foot range. These
tend the highest on east-facing shores exposed to a greater fetch
on west winds; specifically those locations adjacent to the open
waters north of the Charlotte Ferry and south of Valcour Island.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for