Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 270338 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1038 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY. ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z. TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT 850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS LOW. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH 09Z. AFTER THAT, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST IN DEVELOPING LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT MSS. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPING LIGHT ECHOES/INFERRED LIGHT SNOW ON COMPOSITE RADAR AT BAY. GREATEST IMPACT FROM AN AVIATION PERSPECTIVE ISN`T UNTIL AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. LIGHT SNOW BEGINS AT RUT AROUND 09Z WITH INITIAL VISIBILITIES AROUND 1 TO 1.5 SM, THOUGH NOT SPREADING INTO BTV UNTIL AROUND 14Z. EXPECT A PERIOD OF 1/2 SM MODERATE SNOW FOR MOST OF THE VT TERMINALS INTO TUESDAY AS WESTERN FRINGE OF SNOW BANDING LIFTS NORTHWEST, GENERALLY BETWEEN 12-17Z. DURATION OF THIS SNOW BAND SHORTENS WITH WESTWARD/NORTHWEST EXTENT. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT MSS AS LIGHT SNOW IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT IN BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-10 KTS (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT 15 KTS AT MSS DUE FAVORED CHANNELING). NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST. OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 00Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES STATES. 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012- 019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004- 007>009-018. NY...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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