Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281426 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1026 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1014 AM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS AND INCREASE 6HR QPF GRIDS ACRS CENTRAL VT AND LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. HAVE NOTICED 1 HR QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 0.30 AND 0.60" ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL LIFTING ACRS CENTRAL VT ATTM. RUTLAND RECEIVED 0.44"...WITH NORTH HARTLAND LAKE HADS REPORTING A 3 HR TOTAL OF 1.16 INCHES. THIS BAND WL CONT TO MOVE NORTH AND IMPACT ALL OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT THRU 18Z TODAY. ALSO...A BATCH OF MODERATE RAIN WL CONT ACRS NORTHERN NY...INCLUDING THE SLV WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL RATES. EXPECTING MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT TO DEVELOP ACRS SOUTHERN VT ZNS LATE THIS MORNING...WHICH WL PROVIDE REGION WITH TEMPORARY BREAK IN ACTION...BUT AS POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACRS CENTRAL NY APPROACHES THE REGION...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WL REDEVELOP BY NOON TODAY. THESE STORMS WL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE LIKELY. LATEST HRRR MODELS SHOWS THIS IDEA VERY WELL...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO DEVELOPING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR...TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW A TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...MAINLY ACRS RUTLAND/WINDSOR AND ORANGE COUNTIES. WL WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND RAINFALL RATES VERY CAREFULLY THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE... TEMPS WL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE L60S DACKS TO M70S LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY FOLLOWS... ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY. BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST- FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER PEAKS OF THE GREENS. STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS. SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND 30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS EXIST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY... FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA. MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO +9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS - GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 10-12C. 850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A WIDE VARIETY OF VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE. RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF BTV/MPV INDICATED WITH VCTS AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK AND COULD BE SOME G15-20KTS. AT RUT/MPV LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 12Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK. 12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO SHORT TERM...LOCONTO LONG TERM...SISSON AVIATION...SISSON

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