Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 020531 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 131 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 106 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND VERY LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TRACK. IF THERE ARE GOING TO BE ANY SHOWERS...IT WOULD BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 327 PM EDT MONDAY...MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN THE NEXT WEEK THEN OCCURS TOMORROW AS WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE BAROCLINICITY IS ONCE AGAIN FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR (~30-40KT) AND MODEST PBL INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) ALONG FORERUNNING PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM FAIRLY EASILY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD TREND STRONG...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SEVERE CELL OR TWO...BY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD WHERE BETTER INSOLATION SHOULD OCCUR. BETTER FORCING/HEATING DOES APPEAR TO SET UP JUST A BIT SOUTH OF US THOUGH. GIVEN THIS SETUP I`VE ADDED PROGS FOR GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL IN THE WORDED FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS ACCORDINGLY...IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO MOST RECENT 5 PCT SREF CALIBRATED TSTM/SVR TSTM PROGS. CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WARM AND MUGGY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS SOLIDLY INTO THE 60S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. ANY EVENING CONVECTION THEN CLEARS EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS ACTUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING OVER TIME. THEREAFTER...MEAN HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. ONLY A MODEST AIR MASS CHANGE WITH HIGHS STILL SEASONABLY MILD IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE. THEN TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ATOP THE REGION. LOWS QUITE PLEASANT...MAINLY 50S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 203 PM EDT MONDAY...FA REMAINS IN SIMILAR PATTERN WITH BEING ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE WITH OCCASIONAL NRN STREAM SYSTEMS DAMPENING RIDGE TEMPORARILY WITH CHANCCE SHRA/TSRA THEN A RETURN TO DRY AND ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS. ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SLIGHTLY WITH SURFACE RIDGE IN CONTROL THU AND SLIDING SE ON FRIDAY. PRIMARILY DRY WITH ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE U70S-L/M80S. LATE FRI/FRIDAY NGT/SATURDAY...NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASE SHRA/TSRA THREAT LATE ACRS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAIN PUSH FOR SHRA WILL BE FRI NGT AS SURFACE FRONT SLIDES ACRS FA AND LINGERING INTO SAT AS FLOW IS PARALLEL TO FRONT WITH HINT OF SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY THUS CHANCCE LINGERING SHRA...ESP VT EASTWARD. ANOTHER NRN STREAM UPPER TROF TO MOVE ACRS FA ON SUN BUT LIMITED MOISTURE...MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND NORMAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR. AREA OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. COVERAGE WILL BE HIT OR MISS SO OPTED TO USE VCSH AND KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT TAF SITES. SHOWERS TO MOVE WEST TO EAST...INTO KMSS 12Z...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 14-15Z...AND OUT OF VERMONT BY 16-17Z. VFR P6SM AND SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT 20-24Z TIMEFRAME COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG AFTER 06Z. 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. 00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...HANSON

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