Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 310515 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 115 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS FRONT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1029 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS HAVE EXITED WELL EAST OF VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A DRYING WSW-W FLOW IN PLACE. 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SERN ONTARIO MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO NORTHERN AREAS. DESPITE SOME LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND CONTINUED LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT...RIVER VALLEYS THAT SAW RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A RATHER FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKING UP SPACE OVER HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROFS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A PLEASANT PARTLY CLOUDY SUMMER DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF. TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASON AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND SOME FAIR WEATHER CU UNDER WSW WINDS ALOFT. FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF FURTHER COOLS TEMPERATURES ALOFT SO SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWER, PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SOME OF THIS IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER MN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 50S TO MID 60S. SATURDAY...YET ANOTHER TROF ROTATES THROUGH THOUGH TIMING GETS A BIT FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. MODEL CAPE FIELDS RUNNING 500-1000 J/KG AS FURTHER COOLING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND 500 TEMPS FALL TO -16C SO LOOK FOR A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NOAM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER IN SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE...HIGHS STARTING IN LOWER 80S FOR SUN/MON THEN INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR LOWS. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT CLOUDS IN THE 060-090AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND KSLK TERMINAL. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, LIGHT THROUGH 12Z, THEN AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 12-00Z. A FEW SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING TROUGH MAY ENCROACH TOWARD THE KMSS TERMINAL AFTER 00Z. DRY AT OTHER TERMINALS. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 06Z SAT - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT MPV/SLK. 12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.
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&& .EQUIPMENT...
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OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...SISSON LONG TERM...JMG/SLW AVIATION...JMG/DEAL/SLW EQUIPMENT...

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