Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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855 FXUS61 KBTV 202012 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 412 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AGAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS ARE SHOWING THAT FINALLY THE DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND IS PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE EAST. EXPECT THAT CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS WE GET INTO SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION, EVEN AS LIGHT AS THE MOISTURE WILL BE, WE WILL STILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED TO A BROKEN CLOUD DECK DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL HAMPER TO SOME DEGREE HOW COLD WE GET ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE WITHOUT CLOUDS WE WOULD LIKELY SEE FREEZING TEMPS BUT WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER WILL WE LIKELY STAY ABOVE FREEZING. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN AREAS LOWER THAN 2000 FT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALSO STAY UP IN THE 4-8KT RANGE WHICH SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FROST BUT I DO EXPECT THERE TO BE AREAS WHERE WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME VERY LIGHT ALLOW FOR FROST TO DEVELOP. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER. THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN THE MODELS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTN IS PRODUCING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012. NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ029>031-034. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

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