Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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088 FXUS61 KBTV 170836 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 336 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Light to moderate snow will continue today with additional snow amounts generally up to 2 inches expected, with up to 4 inches expected in southern and eastern Vermont. As a developing coastal low retreats further up the New England Coast this evening, expect widespread snow to taper off later today. Some light snow showers will develop through the end of the week along with a general warming trend going into the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 329 AM EST Wednesday...Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Rutland, Windsor, and Orange counties of Vermont until 100 PM today. Light warm air advection snow continues over southern/eastern Vermont in the overnight hours, with areas further north seeing a temporary lull in the snowfall. Expect snow to become more widespread once again around sunrise as heights fall aloft in advance of an upper level open wave and a developing coastal surface low tracks inside of benchmark (40N 70W). Southern and eastern Vermont will see some influx of Atlantic moisture during this timeframe as southwesterly flow briefly takes on more of a southerly/southeasterly component ahead of the approaching low. Overall, expect to receive generally 3 to 5 inches of snowfall out of the system through this evening in southern and eastern Vermont. Northern New York and northern Vermont will pick up lighter amounts (generally up to 3 inches) as the best moisture transport and lift associated with the surface cyclone will stay further south and east. As the surface low tracks further northeast up the New England coast, flow will quickly switch back to westerly and the stratiform snow will taper off from west to east this afternoon through early evening. Low level lapse rates will steepen in response to cold air advection behind the departing low this evening, supporting the development of some light lake effect snow east and northeast of Lake Ontario tonight through tomorrow. Southern Saint Lawrence and Franklin counties in New York could pick up a dusting to 2 inches out of the band by Thursday night. Temperatures will remain fairly seasonal through Thursday night with highs generally in the 20s and lows in the high single digits to teens tonight under partly clear skies.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 312 PM EST Tuesday...Expecting a fairly quiet but not completely inactive end to the work week with shortwave energy exiting east of the region Thursday morning, followed by a series of 2 more weak northern stream shortwave troughs Thursday night and Friday. In general, the deepest moisture is limited to the higher elevations where a dusting to perhaps 2" is possible, mainly Thursday night, but additional snowfall is possible in the lee of Lake Ontario with some lake enhancement. The period will also mark the beginning of a gradual moderation in temperatures which will last into the weekend and early next week. Highs Thursday will range through the 20s, and warm to the upper 30s to mid 30s for Friday, with lows Thursday night mainly in the teens. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 312 PM EST Tuesday...Overall little change from the 00Z to 12Z NWP guidance in regards to the long term pattern which continues to highlight moderating temperatures and building heights across the eastern seaboard between high pressure anchored offshore and a developing mid-level closed low over the central Plains. For Friday night through Sunday the forecast area will be on the northern fringe of a warm frontal zone with a fast zonal flow aloft. Not looking at any appreciable precipitation during the period, but can`t rule out a few rain/snow showers. Temps continue to climb from the end of the work week with 925-850mb temps in the -3C to +3C range supporting highs both days in the 30s to low 40s and lows in the 20s. Forecast becomes more active and complex heading into Sunday night through Tuesday as the aforementioned closed upper low and associated surface frontal system shift northeast into the Great Lakes by mid-day Monday, then further northeast into central Quebec by Tuesday morning. This track puts the North Country firmly in the warm sector on Monday with thermal profiles supporting the chance for a light wintry mix as the warm frontal zone lifts northward through the area Sunday night into early Monday morning. Entrenched in the warm sector by mid-day Monday, precipitation chances wane as a modest low/mid level jet of 35-50kts moves through the region, but quickly ramp up from west to east in the afternoon ahead of the cold frontal boundary. Indications are for a good slug of widespread rainfall to occur Monday afternoon and early overnight before a transition to snow late Monday night. Right now we don`t anticipate as much QPF compared to what fell at the end of last week, but nevertheless, several days of temps in the 40s combined with even a modest rainfall will bear watching for another round of hydro concerns. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12Z Wednesday...Currently experiencing MVFR and IFR conditions in response to light snow. Steadiest snow remains over southern/eastern Vermont with IFR conditions expected to continue at RUT through 08Z before improving to MVFR as snow becomes lighter between 08Z and 17Z. Snow has tapered off at MSS/SLK/PBG/BTV with conditions temporarily improving over the next few hours at these sites. Another wave of snow will move in to RUT/PBG/BTV/MPV between 10Z and 14Z, once again lowering ceilings and visibilities. This round of snow will end between 22Z and 00Z, allowing widespread improvement to low VFR conditions after this time. Winds will generally be under 10 knots through the period. Outlook... Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance RA, Slight chance SN, Slight chance PL. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VTZ010>012-019. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSD NEAR TERM...RSD SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...RSD

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