Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 052321 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 621 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATION BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR CWA. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1035MB HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TRRN/THERMAL DRIVEN WINDS. GIVEN THE COLDEST CORE OF 85H AIR OF -20C IS ACROSS OUR CWA...UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...EXPECT MANY LOCATIONS TO DROP BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THINKING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM -20F AT SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO -10F TO -20F SAINT LAWRENCE/MOST OF CENTRAL VT TO 0F TO -10F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. COLDEST VALUES WILL BE IN THE DEEPER/PROTECTED VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR CONTS TO SHOW THE NORTHEAST CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP EVENTS. ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT 12Z...WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM FROM -20C TO -14C BY 00Z SATURDAY...WITH FULL SUN WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S WARMER VALLEYS TO M/U TEENS IN THE MTNS. HAVE TRENDED A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BASED ON GOOD MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH PLENTY OF MARCH SUNSHINE. NEXT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR WESTERN CWA BY 06Z SATURDAY. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PWS VALUES BTWN 0.20 AND 0.25"...RESULTING IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH CHC ELSEWHERE. NAM/GFS SHOW PROGGED 85H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING IN THE CPV. ALSO...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING OF THE SFC WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...THINKING EARLY EVENING LOWS...WITH TEMPS WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST VALUES NEAR -10F WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH +10F IN THE SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH MAYBE A SPOT 30F IN THE WARMER URBAN AREAS OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. COOLER TEMPS RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEPARTING SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 312 PM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY/MONDAY PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW, FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER AND A ANOTHER TASTE OF SPRING FOR MID-WEEK. OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED MOVING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL AND FAST FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ZIP THROUGH THE FLOW, SPECIFICALLY A WEAK ONE SUNDAY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE ON MONDAY, BOTH LIKELY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE SNOW TOTALS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. AFTER MONDAY, THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL GET A NICE TASTE OF SPRING AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE MID- ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES AT AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WHILE I`VE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WE`LL BE ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY WITH ENERGY PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING, BUT WILL GO MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES THIS TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STILL CONTENDING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KTS BUT WILL SLACKEN TO LIGHT/VARIABLE INTO THE EVENING AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. EXCEPTION AT RUT WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS THERE DRIVEN BY CLIMATOLOGICAL LOCAL FLOW. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY, WITH INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO ONTARIO. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS, GENERALLY INCREASING IN SPEEDS TO 8-12 KTS (GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT MSS). WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL BUT STILL IN THE VFR CATEGORY. OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 00Z - 06Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 06Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. 06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO

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