Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 241912 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 312 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Unseasonably strong high pressure will continue to bring fair weather and warm, record high temperatures to the region through Wednesday. By later Wednesday into Wednesday night the chances of showers increase as a cold front crosses the area. Behind this front temperatures will cool back toward more typical early autumn values from Thursday onward into next weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 312 PM EDT Sunday...High temperature records already falling in earnest as of 200 pm as deep layer, anomalously strong high pressure continues to build across the northeast. This high will remain anchored in place over the next 48 hours with more rinse and repeat weather and record high temperatures on Monday in the 80s to near 90. See climate section at bottom for specific records over the next few days. Again, I leaned close to a multi-model bias-corrected blend for max/min temperatures given little change in airmass. This supports a somewhat wider than normal diurnal range with typical late night/early morning mist/fog in favored locales morning. Some suggestions that even the St. Lawrence Valley may get in on the fog tonight per most recent NAM 3km output.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM EDT Saturday...The upper level ridge will remain over the North Country through Tuesday and as such the warm airmass will remain in place through the middle of the week. 925mb temps and MOS guidance all suggest temps on Tuesday will warm into the low 90s so I`ve kept the idea of another day well above normal as the forecast. This also pushes heat indexes into the 90-94 degree range. While these temps are considered sub advisory(<95 F), they are not to be taken lightly especially given the time of year. Based on the forecast and current records, its expected that records will fall at all sites by 3-5 degrees. Prolonged exposure outside combined with strenuous activity can lead to heat related injuries. Please take caution, stay hydrated and take frequent breaks during any outdoor activities. This will be the third consecutive day with 90+ degree heat indexes during the afternoon. With upper 80`s to low 90`s temps, the overnight lows wont fall that much. Expect lows each night in the upper 50s to low 60s which is 15-20 degrees above normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 PM EDT Saturday...The upper level ridge begins to break down heading into Wednesday as a low pressure system begins to finally track towards the North Country from the Great Lakes. With the flow aloft not turning zonal until mid day Wednesday anticipate the frontal system moving through slower than depicted by either the GFS or ECMWF. I`ve slowly increased POP`s for Wednesday night with the expectation that the best chance of showers will be late Wednesday night just before sunrise on Thursday. PWAT`s aren`t particularly high with the system and so I anticipate generally some light showers across the North Country. There is a slight chance of some thunder however the threat will only be over the Saint Lawrence based on the idea that the front will be swinging through later and thus the diurnal heating will be on the way down. We finally get into some "normal air" Thursday into Friday behind the cold front. Temps behind the front on Thursday will still be in the upper 60s to around 70 however the cool air advection gets going Friday and heading into weekend as 60s for highs and 40s for lows can be expected by Friday. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18Z Monday...VFR/SKC through the period under light winds less than 10 kts. Only exception will be areas of late night/early morning IFR/LIFR FG at KMPV and KSLK terminals in the 06-13Z time frame. Some patchy/brief MVFR BR also possible at the KMSS terminal during this time frame, but confidence not as high given mixed mesoscale signals in the hi-resolution models. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. Patchy FG. Tuesday: VFR. Patchy FG. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. && .CLIMATE...
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Record high temperatures and year recorded for the period Sunday Sep 24 to Wednesday Sep 27 Day Burlington Massena Montpelier 9/24 84 / 1961 87 / 2010 83 / 1961 9/25 85 / 1891 90 / 2007 85 / 2007 9/26 84 / 1934 82 / 1970 83 / 2007 9/27 83 / 1920 82 / 2003 80 / 2007 For Burlington, here are the latest in the year dates for reaching specific temperature thresholds 90F or higher: 9/16/1939 88F or higher: 9/22/1965 87F or higher: 9/23/1895 86F or higher: 9/23/1895 (was 87F that day)
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...JMG CLIMATE...BTV

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