Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 181754 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 154 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 123 PM EDT FRIDAY...IT`S A LOVELY SPRING AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH TEMPS JUST ABOUT 50 DEGREES OR WARMER UNDER FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH SCT-BKN CIRRUS DECK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC...BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EASTWARD INTO VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY! && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 444 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW...WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NO MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING. FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LINGERING THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT ENDED THERE EVEN BY 18Z. COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...KEEPING SATURDAY COLDER THAN TODAY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD WITH TEMPS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY BUT WARMER AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD AND RETURN FLOW INCREASES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 357 AM EDT FRIDAY... A SHOWERY PERIOD IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY TUE-WED NEXT WEEK AS PATTERN AMPLIFIES NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A DIGGING LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION SO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THIS GENERAL SOLUTION, BUT ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF DIGGING AND EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST ON WED AND HOW FAST IT PULLS AWAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET MONDAY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT MAY BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWER TO NORTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE POP THERE. WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +4C SHOULD HAVE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S. ON TUESDAY THE TROF REALLY DIGS IN WITH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST US. COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN AS THE SLOW SLIDES EAST BUT TUES EVENING. TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE HIGHEST POP OF THE PERIOD AND IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL BE 55 TO 60 ON TUE BEFORE COOLING OFF INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AT NIGHT. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THIS LOW CONSOLIDATES SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST PUTTING OUR REGION INTO A COOLER AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW. STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND AS IT DOES PULLS EVEN COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION SO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING EARLY THU WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. THURSDAY SHOULD FEATURE CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGHS 55 TO 60 AS THE UPPER TROF AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST AWAY FROM US AND RIDGING ALOFT INCREASES. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. EXPECTING MAINLY SPRINKLES WITH THIS COLD FRONT AS LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 17Z FRIDAY SHOWING A LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. EXPECTING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z SATURDAY TIL 14Z SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z SATURDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SATURDAY TO 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...SISSON AVIATION...WGH

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